Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 1 Global Earth-system Modelling using Space and in-situ data – GEMS Progress so far and satellite provision 2009-2019 Richard Engelen ECMWF
Jan 04, 2016
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 1
Global Earth-system Modelling using Space and in-situ data – GEMS
Progress so far and satellite provision 2009-2019
Richard Engelen
ECMWF
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 2
Contents of the Presentation
• Overall Global Objectives of GEMS
• Specific Objectives of GEMS
• Progress since Spring 2005 start of GEMS1. Data issues2. Model3. Assimilation4. First 4D-Var results
• Schedule to operational transition of GEMS in May 2009
• Review of Satellite Provision for GEMS 2009-2019
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 3
GEMS FAQs
• GMES Integrated Project: • 4 years 2005-2009• 12.5MEuro, • 30 Institutes, • 14 Countries
• www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
• Management– Coordinator A.Hollingsworth
(ECMWF) – Greenhouse Gases P.Rayner (F)– Reactive Gases G.Brasseur (D)– Aerosol O.Boucher (UK)– Regional Air Quality V-H.Peuch (F)– Validation H.Eskes (NL) – Global Production System A.Simmons, H.Boettger, (ECMWF),
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 4
Motivations for GEMS
• BETTER OPERATIONAL SERVICES• Excess deaths in summer 2003 heatwave:- 18K in France, at
least 33K in western Europe.
• SCIENCE• GEMS will synthesise all available data into accurate ‘status
assessments’, and will meet many needs of the GCOS Implementation Plan
• TREATY ASSESSMENT & VALIDATION• Conventions (Kyoto, Montreal, LRTAP) and IPCC need best
estimates of sources/ sinks/ transports of atmospheric constituents.
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 5
GEMS organisation
Validation
ReactiveGases
GreenhouseGases
AerosolRegional Air
Quality
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 6
Objectives of GEMS (i): Global Operational System for Monitoring & forecasting Atmospheric Composition
Global Operational System• By 2009 a validated, comprehensive, and operational global
data assimilation / forecast system for atmospheric composition and dynamics,
• Combine all available remotely sensed and in-situ data
Deliverables: global monitoring & forecasting• 3D global distributions (high spatial and temporal resolution)
of key atmospheric trace constituents including • greenhouse gases (initially including CO2, and
progressively adding CH4, N2O, plus SF6 and Radon to check advection accuracy),
• reactive gases (initially including O3, NO2, SO2, CO, HCHO, and gradually widening the suite of species),
• aerosols (initially a 15-parameter representation, later ~ 30)
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 7
Objectives of GEMS (ii): -Regional Air-Quality Forecasts -Retrospective Analyses
-Variational Inversion Techniques
• Regional Air Quality: initial & boundary conditions • Provide initial and boundary conditions for operational
regional air-quality and ‘chemical weather’ forecast systems
• Retrospective Analysis • Provide a retrospective analysis of all accessible in-situ
and remotely sensed data on atmospheric dynamics and composition for the ENVISAT-EOS era (1999-2007)
• Sources, Sinks and Transports • Provide state-of-the-art variational estimates of the
sources, sinks and inter-continental transports, of many trace gases and aerosols;
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 8
Contents of the Presentation
• Overall Global Objectives
• Specific Objectives
• Progress since Spring 2005 start1. Data issues2. Model3. Assimilation4. First 4D-Var results
• Schedule to operational transition in May 2009
• Satellite Provision 2009-2019
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 9
Progress since May 2005 in the global sub-projects
• Data Issue• WMO involvement in Chemical Weather:- BUFR issues being worked out• Data acquisition proceeding well, with considerable cooperation from the
space Agencies (ESA,EUMETSAT, NASA, NOAA)
• Modelling• Generic capability in the model to advect many (~100) species• In-line parameterisations implemented for Greenhouse gases & Aerosol• Surface fluxes specified climatologically (CO2) or dynamically (Aerosol)• Year-long test runs with specified meteorology and free-running chemistry• For reactive gases: Forecast model coupled via OASIS-4 to CTMs (Chemical
Transport Models) is almost ready
• 4D-VAR (Four-dimensional variational assimilation)• 3 separate assimilation systems have been built
• Forecast error correlations assessed by Ensemble 4DVar & NCEP methods
• Generic capability implemented in 4D-Var to assimilate radiances, retrieved profiles, and total column amounts
• First assimilations being assessed
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 10
ECMWF model CO2 north-south gradients compared to surface flasks
Comparisons between CMDL surface flasks and the free-running ECMWF model show good agreement for the north-south gradients.
Southern hemisphere model values are slightly too low (missing biomass burning??)
Jan 2004 Aug2004
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 11
ECMWF model CO2 seasonal cycle compared to surface flasks
Comparisons between CMDL surface flasks and the free-running ECMWF model show good agreement for the seasonal cycle.
Northern hemisphere summer model values are slightly too high (missing land sink??)
S. Hem N. Hem
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 12
First atmospheric CO2 4D-Var analysis results
After 10 days of 4D-Var, the analysis has increased the global mean value as well as the spatial gradients.
The increments in any analysis cycle are within ± 3 ppmv.
369
387
3.2
-3.1
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 13
Zonal mean CO2 distributions
369
380
60 S
60 N
The effect of assimilating AIRS radiances is mainly to increase CO2 mixing ratios in the upper troposphere.
The lower troposphere is largely unaffected, because vertical error correlations are narrow and the adjoint of convection is still missing.
100
1000
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 14
90°S
60°S
30°S
0°
30°N
60°N
90°N
100°W 75°W 50°W 25°W 0° 25°E 50°E 75°E 100°E
-0.2 -0.08 0.04 0.16 0.28 0.4 0.52 0.64 0.76 0.88 1
First guess departures (obs-model) for AOD at 0.55 microns
Preliminary results for one analysis cycle
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 15
90°S
60°S
30°S
0°
30°N
60°N
90°N
100°W 75°W 50°W 25°W 0° 25°E 50°E 75°E 100°E
-0.2 -0.14 -0.08 -0.02 0.04 0.1 0.16 0.22 0.28 0.34 0.4
Analysis departures (obs-analysis) for AOD at 0.55 microns
Preliminary results for one analysis cycle
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 16
50°S50°S
25°S 25°S
0°0°
25°N 25°N
50°N50°N
75°W
75°W 50°W
50°W 25°W
25°W 0°
0° 25°E
25°E 50°E
50°E 75°E
75°E
-1
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.1
-0.05
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.5
1
(mg/kg)
Aerosol mixing ratio increments at the surface
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 17
Background 20041201, 00z
Analysis, 20041201, 0z
CO observations
Kg/m2Observation error 10% diagonal B-matrix, σb=1.e-7 kg/kg
Background field = 1.e-7 kg/kg
No chemistry
Test assimilation of MOPITT total column CO data
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 18
Contents of the Presentation
• Overall Global Objectives
• Specific Objectives
• Progress since Spring 2005 start1. Data issues2. Model3. Assimilation4. First 4D-Var results
• Schedule to operational transition in May 2009
• Satellite Provision 2009-2019
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 19
Schedule of GEMS work at ECMWF
Year 1May 2005 -Aug 2006
• Build and validate 3 separate assimilation systems for Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol. • Acquire data; build web-site
Year 2Aug 2006-Aug 2007
• Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol• Make reanalyses available for validation by all partners• Provide feedback to data providers
Year 2-2.5Aug 2007-Jan 2008
• Merge the 3 assimilation systems into a unified system; • Upgrade the models and algorithms based on experience
Year 2.5-3.5Jan 2008- Nov 2008
• Build operational system, & interfaces to partners • Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol
Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008- May 2009
• Final pre-operational trials • Documentation & Scientific papers
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 20
Review of satellite provision 2009-2019
• Key uncertainties in satellite provisions 2009-2019• Uncertain implications of $3B cost overrun in NOAA’s
$8B NPP/NPOESS program• DoD must report to Congress in May/June 2006• Worst case scenario: No launch before 2014• Recent news is much more encouraging
• NASA’s Earth Observation budget for the next decade is very uncertain
• ESA’s priority is uncertain for chemistry in Earth Explorer and Sentinel Programmes
• Concerns• Greenhouse Gases• Aerosol• Reactive Gases
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 21
Greenhouse Gas Provision
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019NASAEur
Envisat (SCIAMACHY) NOAAJAXA
Metop (IASI)
DOAS Sounders
Npp(CrIS)
Npoess (CrIS)
Npoess (CrIS)
GREENHOUSE Gases : Main Satellite Provision 2003-2019
Advanced Sounders
Aqua (AIRS)
Uncertainty
OCO
GOSAT
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 22
Aerosol Provision
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019NASAEurNOAAJAXA
ADM
Polarimeter Npp (VIIRS)
Npoess (VIIRS+APS)
Npoess (VIIRS+APS)
VisIR Imager
Aqua (MODIS )
Terra (MODIS ) Uncertainty
AURA (TES, OMI)
AEROSOLS, Albedo, Ocean Colour, Vegetation: Main Satellite Provision 2003-2019
CalipsoLidar
Envisat (MERIS)
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 23
Reactive Gas (UTLS & Air-Quality) Provision
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019NASAEurNOAAJAXA
REACTIVE Gases (O3, N2O, SO2, CH2O) : Main Satellite Provision 2003-2019
Upr. Trop. - Lower StratUncertainty
Envisat (MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, GOMOS)
Lower Troposphere
Metop (GOME-2)
Npoess (OMPS)
Npoess (OMPS )
Npp (OMPS) ~SBUV+TOMS
Aura (TES, OMI)
Aura (TES, OMI)
Envisat (SCIAMACHY)
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 24
Conclusions on GEMS satellite provision 2009-2019
• Security of Satellite Provision beyond 2009• Most secure
• Greenhouse gases probably have the most secure provision
• Least Secure • Reactive gases probably have the least secure provision • Air-Quality chemistry has no provision beyond 2012
• Aerosol provision depends on an early launch date for VIIRS on NOAA’s NPP/NPOESS
• Next Developments
• Press ESA for an Air-Quality mission in 2010, and EUMETSAT for 2020
• Await Congressional confirmation of DoD/NOAA May’06 recommendations on NPP/NPOESS
• Hope that the US scientists can persuade current and future US administrations to fund the necessary NASA and NOAA missions.
Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006GEMSR. Engelen Slide 25
ENDthank you for your attention!
www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS