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DPR Korean Energy DPR Korean Energy
Demand/Supply Analysis: Demand/Supply Analysis:
Energy Balance Sheet 2003Energy Balance Sheet 2003
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DPRK Energy Experts Study Group MeetingDPRK Energy Experts Study Group Meeting
June 26 – June 27, 2006June 26 – June 27, 2006
Standford University, Palo Alto, California, USAStandford University, Palo Alto, California, USA
Kyung-Sool KimKyung-Sool Kim
Korea Energy Economics InstituteKorea Energy Economics InstituteCenter for Energy Research, Northeast AsiaCenter for Energy Research, Northeast Asia
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A. OverviewA. Overview11
1. Gvnt’s Official Estimates on Primary Energy Supply ■ TPES of Coal, Oil, Hydro and Others ■ Socio-Economic Comparison between South/North Korea, Korean National Statistical Office, Published at the end of every year
2. Other Sources■ From related organizations, institutions, industries, departments of government, ■ experts, media and sometimes from DPR Korea
3. Bold assumption and experts judgments ■ Estimates and inferences ■ Refugee Interview
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B. Primary Energy SupplyB. Primary Energy Supply11
■ Primary Energy Supply in 2004: 16.5 mil. TOE
69.0% level of 1990’s
Average Annual Growth Rate of
Coal: -2.6%
Oil: -5.0%
Hydro: -1.3%
Others: -2.6%
TPES: -2.6%
Coal Oil Hydro Others TPES
1990 16575 2520 3748 1120 23963
1991 15500 1890 3750 780 21920
1992 14020 1520 3550 780 20450
1993 13550 1360 3323 799 19013
1994 12700 910 3480 785 17870
1995 11850 1100 3550 795 17280
1996 10500 1436 2120 791 15836
1997 10300 1006 2660 784 14746
1998 9300 1400 2550 776 14030
1999 10500 881 2794 780 14955
2000 11250 1117 2540 780 15687
2001 11550 1250 2650 780 16230
2002 10950 1253 2655 780 15640
2003 11150 1219 2930 780 16079
2004 11400 1230 3125 780 16535
'90-'04 -2.6 -5.0 -1.3 -2.6 -2.6
'04/'90 68.8 48.8 83.4 69.6 69.0
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B. Primary Energy SupplyB. Primary Energy Supply11
When TPES in 1990 is 1.0 oil decreased to 0.69, coal decreased to 0.688
1990 = 1.0 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Primary Total 1.000 0.721 0.655 0.677 0.653 0.671 0.690
Coal 1.000 0.715 0.679 0.697 0.661 0.673 0.688
Oil 1.000 0.437 0.443 0.496 0.497 0.484 0.488
Hydro 1.000 0.947 0.678 0.707 0.708 0.782 0.834
Others 1.000 0.710 0.696 0.696 0.696 0.696 0.696
(1990=1.0)
0.000
0.200
0.400
0.600
0.800
1.000
1.200
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Primary Total
Coal
Oil
Hydro
Others
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B. Primary Energy SupplyB. Primary Energy Supply11
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
OthersHydroOilCoal
Share of TPES(%)
1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Coal 69.2 68.6 71.7 71.2 70.0 69.3 68.9
Oil 10.5 6.4 7.1 7.7 8.0 7.6 7.4
Hydro 15.6 20.5 16.2 16.3 17.0 18.2 18.9
Others 4.7 4.6 5.0 4.8 5.0 4.9 4.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
No significant change in TPES structure Oil share decreased from 10.5%(1990) to 7.4%(2004) Hydro share increased from 15.6%(1990) to 18.9%(2004)
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B. Primary Energy SupplyB. Primary Energy Supply11
TOE per capita decreased from 1.18 (1990) to 0.73 (2004)
TOE/GNI decreased from 1.14 (1990) to 0.92 (2004)
1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 '90-'04
TPES (thou. TOE) 23963 17280 15687 16230 15640 16079 16535 -2.6
Population (thou. people) 20221 21543 22175 22253 22369 22522 22709 0.8
GNI('95,bil. Won) 21045 17170 16501 17112 17317 17629 18017 -1.1
TOE/Person 1.18 0.8 0.71 0.73 0.70 0.71 0.73 -3.4
TOE/mil. Won 1.14 1.01 0.95 0.95 0.90 0.91 0.92 -1.5
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
TOE/Person
TOE/mil. Won
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C. Final Energy Consumption - CoalC. Final Energy Consumption - Coal11
■ Estimation of the structure of sectoral coal consumption
1990 2000
Thermal Power Gen. 45% 42%
Industry 48% 52%
Household 7% 6%
* Ministry of Electricity and Coal Industry, DPRK, 2001
P. Gen.Industr
yHousehol
dPub./other
1990-93 45% 44% 7% 4%
1994-95 44% 45% 7% 4%
1996-97 43% 47% 6% 4%
1998-04 42% 48% 6% 4%
Coal Demand/Supply Sectoral Demand
Primary Supply
PowerGeneration
Final Consumption
Industry Household Public/Others
1990 16575 7459 9116 7293 1160 663
1995 11850 5214 6636 5333 830 474
2000 11250 4725 6525 5400 675 450
2001 11550 4851 6699 5544 693 462
2002 10950 4599 6351 5256 657 438
2003 11150 4683 6467 5352 669 446
2004 11400 4788 6612 5472 684 456
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C. Final Energy Consumption - OilC. Final Energy Consumption - Oil11
■ Estimation of Oil Import, Heavy Oil for Power Generation and the results of Distillation
From government'
s official statistics
thou. TOETotal
SupplyCrude Oil
Import
Oil Product ImportFinal
ConsumptionSumHeavy Oil for P. Gen.
Other Products
1990 2520 2520 N.A. N.A. N.A. 2293
1995 1100 951 149 149 865
2000 1117 389 728 495 233 587
2001 1250 580 670 495 175 703
2002 1253 696 557 406 151 784
2003 1219 669 550 306 244 853
2004 1230 620 610 306 304 868
From The Bank of Korea
“Economic growth rate
of DPRK”
Total Supply minus Crude
Oil Import
1995-2002: KEDO Heavy
Oil,2003~: Heavy
Oil from Distillation +
Some of Imported Heavy Oil
Total Produ
ct Import minus H. Oil for P. Gen.
(Crude Oil
Import * 0.91) + Other
Products
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C. Final Energy Consumption - OilC. Final Energy Consumption - Oil11
■ Application of sectoral share of oil consumption in 1990 to all years
Industry Household Transport Others
Share (%) 38.1 4.6 18.8 38.5
* National Report to UNFCCC of DPRK, 2000
Thou.TOEFinal Oil
ConsumptionIndustry Transport Household
Public/Others
1990 2293 873 431 106 883
1995 865 329 163 40 333
2000 587 223 110 27 226
2001 703 268 132 32 271
2002 784 299 147 36 302
2003 853 325 160 39 328
2004 868 331 163 40 334
Sectoral Share of Oil Consumption (1990)
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C. Final Energy Consumption - C. Final Energy Consumption -
OthersOthers
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■ Application of sectoral share of other energy (Nautilus Results)
Sectoral Share of Other Energy
Industry Transport Household Public/Other
1990 0.286 0.005 0.708 0.000
1996 0.210 0.003 0.787 0.000
2000 0.198 0.003 0.799 0.000
* Nautilus
Thou. TOE Total Supply Industry Transport Household Public/Others
1990 1120 321 6 793 0
1995 795 228 4 563 0
2000 780 154 2 624 0
2001 780 154 2 624 0
2002 780 154 2 624 0
2003 780 154 2 624 0
2004 780 154 2 624 0
From government's
official statistics
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C. Final Energy Consumption - C. Final Energy Consumption -
ElectricityElectricity
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■ Application of sectoral share of other energy (Nautilus Results)
Sectoral Share of Electricity
Industry Transport Household Public/Other
1990 0.613 0.108 0.099 0.180
1996 0.533 0.089 0.133 0.244
2000 0.560 0.120 0.080 0.240
* Nautilus
From government's
official statistics
Thou. TOE GenerationFinal Con. Industry Transport Household
Public/Other
1990 2382 1906 1167 206 189 343
1995 1978 1484 909 160 147 267
2000 1668 1168 654 140 93 280
2001 1737 1216 681 146 97 292
2002 1634 1144 641 137 92 275
2003 1686 1180 661 142 94 283
2004 1772 1240 694 149 99 298
T&D Losses:~ 92: 20%
93~95: 25%96 ~: 30%
(J.M. Kim, 2001)
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C. Final Energy ConsumptionC. Final Energy Consumption11
■ Final Energy Consumption by Sources
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
ElectricityOthersOilCoal
Coal Oil Other Elec. Total
1990 9945 2293 1120 1760 15118
1995 6636 865 795 1484 9780
2000 6525 587 780 1168 9060
2001 6699 703 780 1216 9398
2002 6351 793 780 1144 9068
2003 6467 861 780 1180 9288
2004 6612 868 780 1225 9485
90-'04 -2.9 -6.7 -2.6 -2.6 -3.3
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C. Final Energy ConsumptionC. Final Energy Consumption11
■ Final Energy Consumption by Sector
Industry Transport HouseholdPublic/Others Total
1990 10228 627 2338 1925 15118
1995 6800 327 1579 1074 9780
2000 6431 252 1420 957 9060
2001 6646 280 1447 1025 9398
2002 6352 288 1409 1019 9068
2003 6494 305 1427 1062 9288
2004 6642 312 1446 1085 9485
90-'04 -3.0 -4.9 -3.4 -4.0 -3.3
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Industry Transport Household Public/Others
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D. Energy TransformationD. Energy Transformation11
■ Energy Input for Power Generation
Coal Input = -(Electricity Generated+ Hydro Input * Eff.
+ Oil Input * Eff.)/Eff.
From Government’s
Official Statistics
From Government’s
Official Statistics
(Oil Products Import + Distillated
Products) – Final Oil Consumption
■ Oil Distillation: Products Acquisition Rate (91%) Applied
Own Use & Losses
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E. Energy Balance Sheet 2004E. Energy Balance Sheet 200411
Coal Crude OilOil
ProductsHydro Others
Electricity
Total
Energy Supply 11,400 620 610 3,125 780 - 16,535
Domestic Production 11,400 - - 3,125 780 - 15,305
Import 0 620 610 - 0 - 1,230
Export 0 - - - - 0
Energy Transformation (4,788) (620) 258 (3,125
) 0 1,225 (7,050)
Power Generation (3,956) - (306) (3,125) - 1,771 (5,616)
Oil Distillation - (620) 564 - - - (56)
Own Use (662) - - - - (124) (786)
Losses (170) - - - - (422) (592)
Final Consumption 6,612 - 868 - 780 1,225 9,485
Industry 5,472 - 330 - 154 686 6,642
Transport 0 - 163 - 2 147 312
Household 684 40 - 624 98 1,446
Public/Others 456 - 335 - 0 294 1,085
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F. Further DevelopmentF. Further Development11
■ Data Gathering DPR Korean Official Statistics Survey on Energy Consuming Behavior
■ Biomass in Energy Balance Sheet Non-Commercial Energy: Excluded in IEA Standard Separate Format for Biomass Use
■ International Cooperation DPR Korean Expert Training for Energy Data System Cooperative Research Projects with DPRK Energy Survey in DPR Korea
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THANK YOU VERY
MUCH