Determining the Market
for
Fast Passenger Transportation
William A. Hockberger
The Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers 2001 Annual Meeting, Orlando, FL
Outline
• The current situation for ferries in the U.S.
• Inserting a ferry into the transportation system
• Economic aspects
• The transportation planning process
• Meeting travelers' needs
Current Ferry Usage in the U.S.
National Ferry Database, 2000 - Volpe Center, USDOT
– 224 Operators– 352 Routes– 487 Route segments– 677 Vessels– 66 Fast vessels (25 knots and above)– 113 Million passengers/year
Additional Areas of Opportunity
• Replacement of slow ferries by fast• Expansion in areas already served• Unserved lakes, rivers, offshore routes• Generic situations:
– Across body of water• Instead of new bridge or tunnel
• Instead of additional bridge lanes
• Instead of air service
– Parallel to water• Instead of new highway, rail, air route
• Instead of additional lanes or tracks
Current Factors Inhibiting Ferry Expansion
• Ferry unawareness
• Highway bias
• Mass transit bias
• Government obstacles
• Investor/lender unfamiliarity
Current Factors Favoring Ferry Expansion
• Continued worsening of highway travel– Physical constraints to additional capacity
– Political constraints
– Rising costs
– Inadequate budgets
• Air travel not viable on short routes• Government encouragement of ferries
– FBD - Ferry Boat Discretionary Fund
– CMAQ - Congestion Mitigation & Air Quality Program
– STP - Surface Transportation Program
• Absence of a bad record
Inserting a Ferry into the Transportation System
• Initially everyone is traveling by some means
• Ferry provides a new alternative
– Attracts riders from other means
– Stimulates additional travel
• Reduces pressure on other transportation modes
• Adds flexibility to transportation system
What Travelers Want from Transportation
• Get from A to B
• Reasonable travel time
• Reasonable travel cost
• Predictability, reliability
• Service hours & frequency
• Probability of getting a seat (and carry-on space)
• Safety
• Comfort, quality, amenities
• Style, image
• Productivity & communications features
• Features for disabled, elderly, children
• Route interest
• Environmental compatibility
• Terminal convenience: locations, parking, accessibility
• Terminal services, safety & comfort, easy boarding
• Current information: correct, complete, easily obtainable
Origin
Destination
Walk
Walk
Bus
Subway
Car
Car
Bus
Bus
Ferry
Walk
Walk
Car
Tunnel
Bridge
Alternative Origin-to-Destination Paths
Car
Walk
Walk
Bus
Walk
Walk
Bus
FERRY FLEET
ROUTES & TERMINALS
SUPPORT
FACILITIES
MANAGEMENT & ADMINISTRATION
CONNECTING INFRASTRUCTURE
The Complete Ferry System & Environment
INDUSTRIES
OFFICES SHOPPING
ENTERTAINMENT
SCHOOLS
ROADS
HIGHWAYS
RAILROADS
AIRPORTS
SUBWAY
LIGHT RAIL
CARS BUSES
TAXIS
ROUTES & TERMINALS
GOVERNMENTS:
FEDERAL, STATE,
AREA, LOCAL
ADDITIONAL
REVENUE
SOURCES
LABOR UNIONS
CITIES
DISTRICTS
RESIDENCIAL
AREAS
BACK-UP TRANSPORTATION
THE NATURAL
ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORT
FACILITIES
Economic Aspects
• The economic perspective– What will I get?
– What will it cost me to get it?
– Is it worth that to me?
• Profitability is essential– Show prospects to obtain funds
– Cover costs to remain in business
– Repay investors, lenders, lessors
– Ferries vs. other investments
• Base decisions on total system over the long term• Incorporate risks in projections
Connecting with the Existing Transportation System
• Many points of interaction• Need acceptance and support in area• Join forces where beneficial
– Terminals
– Parking
– Transit connections
– Information
– Fare system
The Transportation Planning System
• Enormous U.S. transportation investments
• Transportation agencies in all areas– USDOT– State DOTs– MPOs
• Much information & data available
• Established transportation planning discipline
• Transportation planning methods and processes
How Transportation Experts Analyze Markets
• Initial conditions– Land use by TAZ (Transportation Analysis Zone)
• Residential
• Work and employment
• Demographic profile
– Baseline transportation network
• Trip generation– Productions (related to demographic factors)
– Attractions (reasons for people to travel)
• Trip distribution (connects productions with attractions)
• Mode split• Route assignment
Mode Split Analysis
• Selects best of available transportation modes for each traveler
• "Best" is a function of:– Travel time
– Travel cost
– Other factors previously noted
– Number and ease of changes
– Willingness to walk
– Car bias
– Etc.
• Factors weighted by disutility
Traveler Characteristics
• Categories– Commuters
– Business travelers
– Shoppers and other irregular users
– Tourists
• Value placed on time & money, service & quality– Business vs. personal travel
– High-salary vs. low-salary business travel
– High-income vs. low-income traveler
– Urgent or time-sensitive vs. routine travel
– Frequent vs. infrequent travel
• Travel origins & destinations in area
Elements of Alternative Ferry Service Concepts
• Traveler categories
• Locations and routes
• Connecting paths and modes
• Ferry capabilities and qualities
• Terminals and other facilities
• Ferry schedules & frequencies
• Additional revenue possibilities
• Back-up transportation arrangements
Eliciting Travelers' Preferences
• Surveys– Too little early info to pose good alternatives– Can't include all relevant factors– Responses not based on real trade-offs – Responses aren't commitments– Valuable later for refining alternatives
• Focus groups– Valuable for defining and refining alternatives– "Unweighted" technique
Simulation of Operations
• Model the system and its patterns of operation
• Include outside connecting systems
• Passenger arrivals & departures at each terminal
• Ferry availability for other revenue services
• Incorporate financial parameters & variables
• Test combinations to find the best
• Test sensitivity of results to variations
• Tool for later changes and adjustments
Other Factors to Consider
• Demographic trends
• Competitive conditions
• Health of the economy
• Inflation/deflation expectations
• Availability & cost of financing
• Cost trends of labor, fuel, major items
• Tax & subsidy changes
• Environmental requirements & issues
• Political environment, regulation
Summary
• Prospects for ferries are very good• It's not just a ferry, it’s:
– a large, complex system
– an element of the area transportation system
– a business that must be successful
• Should study & plan ferries as an integral part of the overall transportation system
• Must meet diverse individual needs of travelers• Various factors and risks to consider