Determining the Market for Fast Passenger Transportation William A. Hockberger The Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers 2001 Annual Meeting,

Determining the Market

for

Fast Passenger Transportation

William A. Hockberger

The Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers 2001 Annual Meeting, Orlando, FL

Outline

• The current situation for ferries in the U.S.

• Inserting a ferry into the transportation system

• Economic aspects

• The transportation planning process

• Meeting travelers' needs

Current Ferry Usage in the U.S.

National Ferry Database, 2000 - Volpe Center, USDOT

– 224 Operators– 352 Routes– 487 Route segments– 677 Vessels– 66 Fast vessels (25 knots and above)– 113 Million passengers/year

Additional Areas of Opportunity

• Replacement of slow ferries by fast• Expansion in areas already served• Unserved lakes, rivers, offshore routes• Generic situations:

– Across body of water• Instead of new bridge or tunnel

• Instead of additional bridge lanes

• Instead of air service

– Parallel to water• Instead of new highway, rail, air route

• Instead of additional lanes or tracks

Current Factors Inhibiting Ferry Expansion

• Ferry unawareness

• Highway bias

• Mass transit bias

• Government obstacles

• Investor/lender unfamiliarity

Current Factors Favoring Ferry Expansion

• Continued worsening of highway travel– Physical constraints to additional capacity

– Political constraints

– Rising costs

– Inadequate budgets

• Air travel not viable on short routes• Government encouragement of ferries

– FBD - Ferry Boat Discretionary Fund

– CMAQ - Congestion Mitigation & Air Quality Program

– STP - Surface Transportation Program

• Absence of a bad record

Inserting a Ferry into the Transportation System

• Initially everyone is traveling by some means

• Ferry provides a new alternative

– Attracts riders from other means

– Stimulates additional travel

• Reduces pressure on other transportation modes

• Adds flexibility to transportation system

What Travelers Want from Transportation

• Get from A to B

• Reasonable travel time

• Reasonable travel cost

• Predictability, reliability

• Service hours & frequency

• Probability of getting a seat (and carry-on space)

• Safety

• Comfort, quality, amenities

• Style, image

• Productivity & communications features

• Features for disabled, elderly, children

• Route interest

• Environmental compatibility

• Terminal convenience: locations, parking, accessibility

• Terminal services, safety & comfort, easy boarding

• Current information: correct, complete, easily obtainable

Origin

Destination

Walk

Walk

Bus

Subway

Car

Car

Bus

Bus

Ferry

Walk

Walk

Car

Tunnel

Bridge

Alternative Origin-to-Destination Paths

Car

Walk

Walk

Bus

Walk

Walk

Bus

FERRY FLEET

ROUTES & TERMINALS

SUPPORT

FACILITIES

MANAGEMENT & ADMINISTRATION

CONNECTING INFRASTRUCTURE

The Complete Ferry System & Environment

INDUSTRIES

OFFICES SHOPPING

ENTERTAINMENT

SCHOOLS

ROADS

HIGHWAYS

RAILROADS

AIRPORTS

SUBWAY

LIGHT RAIL

CARS BUSES

TAXIS

ROUTES & TERMINALS

GOVERNMENTS:

FEDERAL, STATE,

AREA, LOCAL

ADDITIONAL

REVENUE

SOURCES

LABOR UNIONS

CITIES

DISTRICTS

RESIDENCIAL

AREAS

BACK-UP TRANSPORTATION

THE NATURAL

ENVIRONMENT

SUPPORT

FACILITIES

Economic Aspects

• The economic perspective– What will I get?

– What will it cost me to get it?

– Is it worth that to me?

• Profitability is essential– Show prospects to obtain funds

– Cover costs to remain in business

– Repay investors, lenders, lessors

– Ferries vs. other investments

• Base decisions on total system over the long term• Incorporate risks in projections

Connecting with the Existing Transportation System

• Many points of interaction• Need acceptance and support in area• Join forces where beneficial

– Terminals

– Parking

– Transit connections

– Information

– Fare system

The Transportation Planning System

• Enormous U.S. transportation investments

• Transportation agencies in all areas– USDOT– State DOTs– MPOs

• Much information & data available

• Established transportation planning discipline

• Transportation planning methods and processes

Transportation Analysis Zones TAZ Map of Wilmington, DE

How Transportation Experts Analyze Markets

• Initial conditions– Land use by TAZ (Transportation Analysis Zone)

• Residential

• Work and employment

• Demographic profile

– Baseline transportation network

• Trip generation– Productions (related to demographic factors)

– Attractions (reasons for people to travel)

• Trip distribution (connects productions with attractions)

• Mode split• Route assignment

Mode Split Analysis

• Selects best of available transportation modes for each traveler

• "Best" is a function of:– Travel time

– Travel cost

– Other factors previously noted

– Number and ease of changes

– Willingness to walk

– Car bias

– Etc.

• Factors weighted by disutility

Traveler Characteristics

• Categories– Commuters

– Business travelers

– Shoppers and other irregular users

– Tourists

• Value placed on time & money, service & quality– Business vs. personal travel

– High-salary vs. low-salary business travel

– High-income vs. low-income traveler

– Urgent or time-sensitive vs. routine travel

– Frequent vs. infrequent travel

• Travel origins & destinations in area

Elements of Alternative Ferry Service Concepts

• Traveler categories

• Locations and routes

• Connecting paths and modes

• Ferry capabilities and qualities

• Terminals and other facilities

• Ferry schedules & frequencies

• Additional revenue possibilities

• Back-up transportation arrangements

Eliciting Travelers' Preferences

• Surveys– Too little early info to pose good alternatives– Can't include all relevant factors– Responses not based on real trade-offs – Responses aren't commitments– Valuable later for refining alternatives

• Focus groups– Valuable for defining and refining alternatives– "Unweighted" technique

Simulation of Operations

• Model the system and its patterns of operation

• Include outside connecting systems

• Passenger arrivals & departures at each terminal

• Ferry availability for other revenue services

• Incorporate financial parameters & variables

• Test combinations to find the best

• Test sensitivity of results to variations

• Tool for later changes and adjustments

Other Factors to Consider

• Demographic trends

• Competitive conditions

• Health of the economy

• Inflation/deflation expectations

• Availability & cost of financing

• Cost trends of labor, fuel, major items

• Tax & subsidy changes

• Environmental requirements & issues

• Political environment, regulation

Summary

• Prospects for ferries are very good• It's not just a ferry, it’s:

– a large, complex system

– an element of the area transportation system

– a business that must be successful

• Should study & plan ferries as an integral part of the overall transportation system

• Must meet diverse individual needs of travelers• Various factors and risks to consider