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DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo
Start with Hans Rosling
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TodayToday
Investigate the Demographic Investigate the Demographic Transition ModelTransition Model
Investigate Types of Diagrams used Investigate Types of Diagrams used to display and map Demographicsto display and map Demographics
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1. DEFINING 1. DEFINING GENERAL GENERAL TERMS TERMS
AND AND CONCEPTSCONCEPTS
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Basic Terms
Crude Birth Rate
Crude Death Rate
Rate of Natural Increase
Infant Mortality Rate
Fertility Rate
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Crude Birth RateCrude Birth Rate
CBRCBR Number of live births per year = Number of live births per year =
3,1803,180 Divided by population = 200,000Divided by population = 200,000 Times 1,000Times 1,000
CBR = [(3,180)/200,000] x 1,000CBR = [(3,180)/200,000] x 1,000
CBR = CBR = 15.9 births per 1,000 people15.9 births per 1,000 people
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Crude Death RateCrude Death Rate
CDRCDR Number of deaths per year = 1,860Number of deaths per year = 1,860 Divided by population = 200,000Divided by population = 200,000 Times 1,000Times 1,000
CDR = [(1,860)/200,000] x 1,000CDR = [(1,860)/200,000] x 1,000
CDR = CDR = 9.3 deaths per 1,000 people9.3 deaths per 1,000 people
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Rate of Natural IncreaseRate of Natural Increase
RNIRNI CBR = 15.9CBR = 15.9 Minus CDR = 9.3Minus CDR = 9.3 Divided by 10Divided by 10
RNI = (CBR – CDR)/10 RNI = (CBR – CDR)/10 = [(15.9 -9.3) /10 = [(15.9 -9.3) /10 = 0.66= 0.66% growth per year% growth per year
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Infant Mortality RateInfant Mortality Rate
IMIM number of newborns dying under one number of newborns dying under one
year of age = 40year of age = 40 divided by the number of live births divided by the number of live births
during one year = 5,300during one year = 5,300 Time 1,000 Time 1,000
IM = (40/5,300) x 1,000IM = (40/5,300) x 1,000
IM = IM = 7.6 deaths per 1,000 births7.6 deaths per 1,000 births
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Fertility RateFertility Rate
Average Number of child birthsAverage Number of child births Per womanPer woman
Since a couple is 2 people, need a Since a couple is 2 people, need a little more than 2 births to replace little more than 2 births to replace the parentsthe parents
2.12.1 is considered a stable growth is considered a stable growth fertility rate in the US of a Developed fertility rate in the US of a Developed CountryCountry
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Types of DiagramsTypes of Diagrams
Demographic Transition ModelDemographic Transition Model Population PyramidPopulation Pyramid Trend DiagramsTrend Diagrams
– Temporal (over time)Temporal (over time)– Spatial (over spaceSpatial (over space
Survivorship DiagramSurvivorship Diagram
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2.2.DEMOGRAPHIC DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION TRANSITION MODEL MODEL
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Time
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.
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What is the Demographic What is the Demographic Transition Model?Transition Model?
The "Demographic Transition" is a The "Demographic Transition" is a model that describes population model that describes population change over time. change over time. – Our main concern has been growthOur main concern has been growth– Now in Industrial Countries it is declineNow in Industrial Countries it is decline
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What is the Demographic What is the Demographic Transition Model?Transition Model?
It is based on an interpretation It is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson, of demographer Warren Thompson, of the observed changes, or the observed changes, or transitionstransitions, , in birth and death rates in in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past industrialized societies over the past two hundred years or so. two hundred years or so.
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What is the Demographic What is the Demographic Transition Model?Transition Model?
The "Demographic Transition" is a The "Demographic Transition" is a model a scientific hypothesismodel a scientific hypothesis– Until the 1990s it seemed to work well Until the 1990s it seemed to work well
with Developed Countrieswith Developed Countries– It worked It worked pretty wellpretty well with Less with Less
Developed CountriesDeveloped Countries
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What is the Demographic What is the Demographic Transition Model?Transition Model?
The "Demographic Transition" is The "Demographic Transition" is based on the Scientific Method, based on the Scientific Method, – so we are continually “experimenting” so we are continually “experimenting”
with it and improving itwith it and improving it
In this class we will experiment with it In this class we will experiment with it in Mexico & Swedenin Mexico & Sweden
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Impacts and ConsequencesImpacts and ConsequencesThe next several sets of tables summarizes the The next several sets of tables summarizes the
measures of impacts of the Transitionmeasures of impacts of the Transition
Four Stages ImpactsFour Stages Impacts 1. Very Low Growth1. Very Low Growth 2. High Growth2. High Growth 3. High but Slowing 3. High but Slowing
GrowthGrowth 4. Low Growth4. Low Growth
Some now see a fifth stageSome now see a fifth stage 5. ??? Decline sets in ????5. ??? Decline sets in ????
Factors That Change over the Factors That Change over the StagesStages
Family SizeFamily Size Infant Mortality & Fertility Infant Mortality & Fertility
Rates Rates Family EconomicsFamily Economics Status of KidsStatus of Kids Gender RolesGender Roles Health ConditionsHealth Conditions Transportation FacilitiesTransportation Facilities Child DeathsChild Deaths Population Size Population Size
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Demographic Transition ModelDemographic Transition Model
Stage 1 : Stage 1 : Pre Pre industrializaindustrialization: Stable tion: Stable population population growthgrowth
Stage 2: Stage 2: Rapid Rapid population population growthgrowth
Stage 3: Stage 3: Continued and Continued and decreasing decreasing population population growthgrowth
Stage 4: Stage 4: Stable low Stable low population population growthgrowth
CBRCBRHigh Birth High Birth ratesrates
High Birth High Birth ratesrates
Falling Birth ratesFalling Birth rates Low Birth Low Birth ratesrates
Family Size Family Size -- planned-- planned
Family Family Planning -- Planning -- The general The general
plan is to plan is to have many have many
kidskids
Family Family Planning -- Planning -- The general The general
plan is to plan is to have many have many
kidskids
Family Planning -- Family Planning -- The plan is to have The plan is to have fewer kidsfewer kids
Trends Trends stabilize stabilize with 2 kid with 2 kid families or families or lessless
Infant Infant Mortality Mortality Rate/ Rate/ Fertility Fertility RateRate
Many children Many children because few because few survive, high survive, high fertility ratefertility rate
Still many Still many kids because kids because expectexpect few to few to survive high survive high
fertilityfertility
Lower infant Lower infant mortality rates -- mortality rates -- less pressure to less pressure to have children, have children, fertility declinesfertility declines
Small family Small family size low size low fertility ratefertility rate
Family Family EconomicsEconomics
Many children Many children are needed to are needed to work the landwork the land
Children are Children are still useful for still useful for work work
Increased Increased mechanization and mechanization and industrialization industrialization means less need means less need for labor/kidsfor labor/kids
Women are Women are working in working in great great numbersnumbers
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Demographic Transition ModelDemographic Transition Model
Stage 1 : Stage 1 : Pre Pre industrializindustrialization: ation: Stable Stable population population growthgrowth
Stage 2: Stage 2: Rapid Rapid population population growthgrowth
Stage 3: Stage 3: Continued Continued and and decreasing decreasing population population growthgrowth
Stage 4: Stage 4: Stable low Stable low population population growthgrowth
CBRCBRHigh Birth High Birth ratesrates
High Birth High Birth ratesrates
Falling Birth Falling Birth ratesrates
Low Birth Low Birth ratesrates
Status Status of Kidsof Kids
Children are Children are a sign of a sign of virility & virility & status and status and old age old age insuranceinsurance
Children are Children are a sign of a sign of virility & virility & status and status and old age old age insuranceinsurance
Increased Increased desire for desire for material material possessions possessions and less desire and less desire for large for large familiesfamilies
Kids are an Kids are an expense & expense & “bling”“bling”
Gender Gender rolesroles
Strong sex Strong sex rolesroles
Strong sex Strong sex rolesroles
Emancipation Emancipation of womenof women
Emancipation Emancipation of womenof women
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Stage 1 : Stage 1 : Pre Pre industrializindustrialization: ation: Stable Stable population population growthgrowth
Stage 2: Stage 2: Rapid Rapid population population growthgrowth
Stage 3: Stage 3: Continued Continued and and decreasing decreasing population population growthgrowth
Stage 4: Stage 4: Stable low Stable low population population growthgrowth
CDRCDR High Death High Death RatesRates
Falling Death Falling Death RatesRates
Death rates Death rates LowLow
Death rates Death rates LowLow
Health Health ConditiConditionsons
Poor Diet & Poor Diet & Sanitation, Sanitation, Famine and Famine and DiseaseDisease
Improved Improved diet, diet, sanitation & sanitation & medical caremedical care
Slight Slight improvementimprovement
No changeNo change
TranspTransport ort FacilitiFacilitieses
Limited Limited transport, transport, trade & trade & traveltravel
Improved Improved transport to transport to move food move food and doctorsand doctors
Slight Slight ImprovementImprovement
StableStable
Child Child DeathsDeaths
High child High child mortality mortality before age 5before age 5
A decrease in A decrease in child child mortalitymortality
Child Child mortality mortality very lowvery low
StableStable
After Copper, Models of Demography, After Copper, Models of Demography, http://www.bized.ac.uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th10.htmhttp://www.bized.ac.uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th10.htm
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Stage 1 : Stage 1 : Pre Pre industrializindustrialization: ation: Stable Stable population population growthgrowth
Stage 2: Stage 2: Rapid Rapid population population growthgrowth
Stage 3: Stage 3: Continued Continued and and decreasindecreasing g population population growthgrowth
Stage 4: Stage 4: Stable low Stable low population population growthgrowth
Rate Rate Natural Natural IncreaseIncrease
Very Low Very Low GrowthGrowth
High GrowthHigh Growth Slowing Slowing GrowthGrowth Low GrowthLow Growth
Population Population SizeSize
Small Small PopulationPopulation
BiggerBigger BiggerBiggerBiggestBiggest
After Copper, Models of Demography, After Copper, Models of Demography, http://www.bized.ac.uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th10.htmhttp://www.bized.ac.uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th10.htm
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ExamplesExamples
Sweden – Historic Industrial CountrySweden – Historic Industrial Country Mexico – An Industrializing CountryMexico – An Industrializing Country
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Developed Country
Example
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Developing Country
Example
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Combination emphasizing changes over time, Sweden takes longer and Sweden starts from lower CBR and CDR
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3. TYPES 3. TYPES OF OF DIAGRAMSDIAGRAMS
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Types of DiagramsTypes of Diagrams
These diagrams help us to These diagrams help us to understand the mechanism causing understand the mechanism causing the Demographic Transition Model to the Demographic Transition Model to operate and its impactoperate and its impact– Survivorship DiagramSurvivorship Diagram– Stabilization Ratio DiagramStabilization Ratio Diagram– Population PyramidsPopulation Pyramids– Temporal TrendsTemporal Trends– Spatial TrendsSpatial Trends
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Emphasis on longer life expectancy as CDR drops
Less then 10% reached 25yrs old
Now 90% live past 55yrs old
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Public Health: One of the many past causes of high child mortality rates
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HIGHLIGHTS IN WORLD POPULATION HIGHLIGHTS IN WORLD POPULATION GROWTHGROWTH
1 billion in 1 billion in 18041804
3 billion in 3 billion in 1960 (33 1960 (33 years later)years later)
5 billion in 5 billion in 1987 (13 1987 (13 years later)years later)
2 billion in 2 billion in 1927 (123 1927 (123 years later)years later)
4 billion in 4 billion in 1974 (14 1974 (14 years later)years later)
6 billion in 6 billion in 1999 (12 1999 (12 years later) years later)
Recent Exponential Growth of World’s Population as countries enter Stage 2 and Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition
About 6.8 bil. currently
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Total Population of the World by Decade, 1950–2050
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762181.htmlhttp://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762181.html
(historical and projected)
YearTotal world population
(mid-year figures)Ten-year growth
rate (%)
1950 2,556,000,053 18.9%
1960 3,039,451,023 22.0
1970 3,706,618,163 20.2
1980 4,453,831,714 18.5
1990 5,278,639,789 15.2
2000 6,082,966,429 12.6
20101
6,848,932,929 10.7
20201
7,584,821,144 8.7
20301
8,246,619,341 7.3
20401
8,850,045,889 5.6
20501
9,346,399,468 —
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Stabilization of World’s population is still over a generation away
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Population Pyramids
• Demonstrate where the population is by age cohort
• Also can see Demographic Stage
Guatemala Stage 2
Mexico is going into Stage 3
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Demographic IndicatorsBirth Rate: 12 per thousand Total fertility rate: 1.8 births Natural increase: 0.1% per year 1990-2000 Age structure: 18% under 15 yrs.age
Demographic Indicators Birth Rate: 9 per thousand Total fertility rate: 1.2 births Natural increase: -0.1% per year 1990-2000 Age structure: 14% under 15 yrs.age
Stage 4: Sweden
Italy with declining population. Will there be a Stage 5???
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USA – what Stage would you say each of these are???
Interactive Pop Pyramid for USAInteractive Pop Pyramid for USA
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http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/02/04/business/aging-population.html?ref=business
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Japan, an upside down pyramid in the making?
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Example of how families adjust to lower infant mortality rates with lower fertility rates.
Result is a decline in CBR
This is a temporal trend diagram.
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Spatial Trend Diagram: Countries with higher IM have higher Fertility Rates.
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Comparative Temporal and Spatial Data Diagram
What is occuring here? Speculate why.
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Comparison of Development and Wealth to Population Growth Rates across Countries
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Where is the World’s Population Growing? Declining?
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Declining World Mortality Rates Map At the end of the second and the beginning of the third stages of the demographic transition, death rates declined. Where did they first decline and where did they last decline?
Created by Ingolf Vogeler on 1 February 1996 http://www.uwec.edu/geography/Ivogeler/w111/dempop.htm
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ONE LAST ONE LAST CONCEPTCONCEPT
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Dependency RatioDependency Ratio
Ratio of non-working population to Ratio of non-working population to working age populationworking age population
Non-Workers are the young and aged Non-Workers are the young and aged retireesretirees– young are usually 15 yrs old and belowyoung are usually 15 yrs old and below– retirees are usually 64 yrs old and retirees are usually 64 yrs old and
aboveabove
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Pakistan’s High Dependency Ratio now and in the future based on lots of kids but few elderly.
However note how the young population is expected to stabilize and elderly grow.
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Dependency Ratio WoesDependency Ratio Woes
A rising dependency ratio is A rising dependency ratio is also also a a concern in many countries that are concern in many countries that are facing facing aging populationsaging populations, since it , since it becomes difficult for pension and becomes difficult for pension and social security systems to provide to social security systems to provide to retirees.retirees.
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Japan showing its high number of dependants to working age population
•lots of elderly (nearly black color)
• Working age population (purple color)
•few kids (dark purple color)
Result is high Dependency Ratio
Play time: Hans RoslingPlay time: Hans Rosling
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http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_shows_the_best_stats_you_ve_ever_seen.html
Play time: gapminder.comPlay time: gapminder.com
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http://www.gapminder.org/
http://www.gapminder.org/