Copyright Decision Strategies International 2011
Anticipating Uncertainty and Leading with Vigilance
New York HR People & StrategyDecember 7, 2011
John Austin, PhD Principal, Decision Strategies InternationalTel: (610) 234-0789 E-mail: [email protected]
Copyright Decision Strategies International 2011
“Instead of trying to optimize tomorrow the trends of yesterday, planning
should aim to exploit the new and different opportunities of tomorrow.”
-- Peter Drucker
Aim and Objective of Planning
Copyright Decision Strategies International 2011
Vigilant Leadership
Most managers excel at being focused (on the task at hand) Often, however, dangers lurk just outside this area of
present focus And likewise, rich opportunities may reside there – just at
the edges We will explore how to improve peripheral vision so as to
not get blindsided The challenge is to see threats and opportunities sooner
and take advantage
Copyright Decision Strategies International 2011
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For over 20 years, the low-carb diet gained increasing acceptance by the US population. But few companies captured the opportunity to market new low-carb products.
FDA recall of Phenfen
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becomes best seller
Super Size Me attacks McDonald’s
Successfully Managing the External Environment
Copyright Decision Strategies International 2011
The Future of HR in the US
Abundant
Availability of US TalentScarce
Flat
Dom
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D
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Hierarchy and Scale
Copyright Decision Strategies International 2011
Multiple Ways To Leverage Scenarios
Monitoring Key
UncertaintiesA living strategy and dynamic decision-making process that links weak signals to their potential impact on strategic priorities as one or more scenarios become more probable over time.
Platform for Innovation
Use scenario analysis to expand the scope beyond the current domain or market served by considering a wide range of forces that will influence the future, and thus present new opportunities.
Conduct a Stress Test
Stress test the organization or brand area strategic plan against the scenarios to minimize possible negative consequences and to seize opportunities.
Future Capabilities
Identify flexible commitments that secure big payoffs of the best case scenarios while minimizing losses in the worst case ones based on various factors needed to succeed in all or any of the scenarios.
Talent Strategies
Identify and highlight critical talent requirements to support organizational vision. Provide a context for aligning strategy to talent management efforts.
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Overconfidence Quiz
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Question Low High1. Length of the Nile river (in miles or km)?
2. Year in which John Steinbeck won the Nobel Prize for literature?
3. Average gestation period (in days) of female Asian elephant?
4. Level of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on July 1, 1985?
5. Martin Luther King’s age when he was assassinated?
6. Air distance between London and Tokyo (in miles or km)?
7. Weight in tons of an empty Airbus plane (Model A340-600)?
8. Year of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart’s birth?
9. Number of books in the Old Testament?
10. Surface area (in square miles or km) of the Mediterranean Sea?
Copyright Decision Strategies International 2011
Overconfidence Quiz -- Answers
Question Answer1. Length of the Nile river (in miles or km)?
2. Year in which John Steinbeck won the Nobel Prize for literature?
3. Average gestation period (in days) of female Asian elephant?
4. Level of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on July 1, 1985?
5. Martin Luther King’s age when he was assassinated?
6. Air distance between London and Tokyo (in miles or km)?
7. Weight in tons of an empty Airbus plane (Model A340-600)?
8. Year of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart’s birth?
9. Number of books in the Old Testament?
10. Surface area (in square miles or km) of the Mediterranean Sea?
4,187 miles or 6,699 km
1962
645 days
1,337
39 years old
5,959 miles or 9,534 km
240 tons
1756
39 books
970,000 sq. mi. or 2.51 million sq. km
Copyright Decision Strategies International 2011
Weather forecastsMedical diagnoses of pneumonia
Predicted Probability (confidence)
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100
Actu
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Copyright Decision Strategies International 2011
The Cognitive Path of Least Resistance
We know the answer– The danger of being an expert
But I have evidence!– Where did you look?
Everyone agrees with me– Who are they?
Just one more dollar and everything will be all right– The tyranny of small steps– Our next step is determined by our last step
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Group Discussion
Identify at least 10 uncertainties which will drive the direction of your key talent challenge over the next 5 years
Try to find a variety of uncertainties by drawing from the PESTLE categories (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal/Regulatory, Environmental)
Once you have identified 10 uncertainties, try to narrow it down to the Top 3 uncertainties
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Copyright Decision Strategies International 2011
Dynamic Monitoring
Interpret RelevanceInterpret
Relevance
Map to StrategyMap to
Strategy
Adjust StrategyAdjust
StrategyManage Cycles
Manage Cycles
Track SignalsTrack
Signals
• Scan for weak signals (“unknown unknowns”) in the external environment
• Interpret Relevance• Map potential impacts
to strategy • Allow for strategy
adjustments in response to change
• Manage cycles for continuous monitoring
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List the Force or KeyUncertainty
What are the Signals or Indicators?
What Internal Sources could be
used to track?
What External Sources could be
used to track?
What is the recommended
monitoring frequency?
Monitoring
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Implications for your career
Given the uncertainties identified by all the groups, what key capabilities do you need to cultivate to remain relevant and able to contribute to strategic discussions over the next 5 years.
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What you can do to get ahead of the future (and your competition!)
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Let’s keep the conversation going….
John [email protected]
(610)234-0789
or find me on LinkedIn