.
CAREXEC73-3 DP 005 rev B Projet CAREX –Steering committee 15 may 2008
octobre 2008 – 1© 2007-2008 Groupe Elcimaï.
Carex Business PlanCarex Business Plan
Steering committee n° 4
15 may 2008
Update : October 2008
Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008
.
CAREXEC73-3 DP 005 rev B Projet CAREX –Steering committee 15 may 2008
octobre 2008 – 2© 2007-2008 Groupe Elcimaï.
SummarySummary
� Introduction
� Description of the scenarios
� Presentation of the results
� Analysis
Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008
.
CAREXEC73-3 DP 005 rev B Projet CAREX –Steering committee 15 may 2008
octobre 2008 – 3© 2007-2008 Groupe Elcimaï.
� This document is establishing the results of the scenarios
which have been selected during the 10th april 2008 steering
committee
� Some Hypothesis have been standed on the infrastructure
“railports” investment. It’s a first estimation while waiting
for detailed studies
� The proceeds and the different costs includes in this
document correspond to a first approach
� The figures comes from the Business Plan Tool “rev C”
Description of the surveyed scenario Description of the surveyed scenario
Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008
.
CAREXEC73-3 DP 005 rev B Projet CAREX –Steering committee 15 may 2008
octobre 2008 – 4© 2007-2008 Groupe Elcimaï.
� Hypothesis and results presentation
A 4 steps methods étapesA 4 steps methods étapes
� Roissy CarexCouncil has validate the business plan software
� Phase 1 :
� Economical set identification
� Services, flows and sales prices definition
� Links between purchaser and suppliers
� Phase 2 :
� Management rules
� Cost calculation
� Business tools model
� Phase 3 :
� BP software development
� Possible Scenario
� Phase 4 :
� scenarios analysis
Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008
.
CAREXEC73-3 DP 005 rev B Projet CAREX –Steering committee 15 may 2008
octobre 2008 – 5© 2007-2008 Groupe Elcimaï.
SummarySummary
� Introduction
� Description of the scenarios
� Presentation of the result
� Analysis
Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008
.
CAREXEC73-3 DP 005 rev B Projet CAREX –Steering committee 15 may 2008
octobre 2008 – 6© 2007-2008 Groupe Elcimaï.
List of the earlier selected scenarioList of the earlier selected scenario
� N°1 : making balance between the cost and the sales
proceeds (see previous document) on the base of the
flows (200 000 air pallets AMJ in 2012)
� N°2 : Flows growing scenario – 80% systematic filling
rate
• the 80% rate have been applied on each travel/haul
• London and Lyon was previously at 81 et 83 % in the
first scenario N°1
� N° 3 : Sales price target scenario : Canceled
• Roissy Carex hasn’t received enough information from
the transport operators
Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008
.
CAREXEC73-3 DP 005 rev B Projet CAREX –Steering committee 15 may 2008
octobre 2008 – 7© 2007-2008 Groupe Elcimaï.
Flows and transport organisationFlows and transport organisation
Evolution des Flux
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
année
Pal
ette
s
200 000 equivalent pallets in 2012
Growing of the flow : 57 % - or 4,8 % in per year , in average
330 000 in 2021
� Scenario 1 :
Balancing costs/ turnover
� Scenario 2 : Flows growing scenario , fill up the train at 80%
70.000 pallets more can be transported in 2012
The rising of the flow is 37 % in 10 years , following the rise of the number of train.
20 trains are uses in 2012 and 26 in 2021
Evolution des Flux
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
année
Pal
ette
s
270 000 pallets i 2012
370 000 in 2021
Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008
.
CAREXEC73-3 DP 005 rev B Projet CAREX –Steering committee 15 may 2008
octobre 2008 – 8© 2007-2008 Groupe Elcimaï.
Répartition Express - CargoRépartition Express - Cargo
� Scenario 1
Flux annuels Express-Cargo
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
200 000
220 000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Express
Cargo
� Scenario 2
Flux annuels Express-Cargo
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
200 000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Express
Cargo
Annual flow express and cargoAnnual flow express and cargo
Annual flow express and cargoAnnual flow express and cargo
Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008
.
CAREXEC73-3 DP 005 rev B Projet CAREX –Steering committee 15 may 2008
octobre 2008 – 9© 2007-2008 Groupe Elcimaï.
Evolution des flux par Railport, hors CDG
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
LHR AMS LGG CGN FRA LYS
2012
2021
Flow per RailportsFlow per Railports
Evolution des flux par Railport, hors CDG
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
LHR AMS LGG CGN FRA LYS
2012
2021
� Scenario 1
� Scenario 2 répartition des flux par railport
LHR; 16%
AMS; 21%
LGG; 9%CGN; 13%
FRA; 17%
LYS; 24%
� AMS has a maximum increasing between sc1 and Sc 2
répartition des flux par railport
LHR; 20%
AMS; 15%
LGG; 7%CGN; 14%FRA; 16%
LYS; 28%
flow per railportflow per railport
flow per railportflow per railport
Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008
.
CAREXEC73-3 DP 005 rev B Projet CAREX –Steering committee 15 may 2008
octobre 2008 – 10© 2007-2008 Groupe Elcimaï.
Scénario : The hypothesisScénario : The hypothesis
� Decision of the previous steering committee
� All the flow comes to and start from CDG Nord Ouest, without any influence on the flows.
� Financial
� Eurocarex purchase the slots
� The train will be purchased by the railway operators
� Standard service on the railport
� Investment
� Lyon Saint Exupery = 31,2 M€� Land : 0,6 M€
- Building : 12,8 M€
- Railway junction : 17,8 M€
� CDG North west = 44,8 M€- Land : 0,6 M€
- Building : 12,8 M€
- Railway junction : 31,4 M€
� Francfort, Cologne, London, Amsterdam, et Liège= 32 M€ per railport
Cf étude
Ordre de grandeur
Cf étude
Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008
.
CAREXEC73-3 DP 005 rev B Projet CAREX –Steering committee 15 may 2008
octobre 2008 – 11© 2007-2008 Groupe Elcimaï.
SummarySummary
� Introduction
� Description of the scenarios
� Presentation of the result
� Analysis
Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008
.
CAREXEC73-3 DP 005 rev B Projet CAREX –Steering committee 15 may 2008
octobre 2008 – 12© 2007-2008 Groupe Elcimaï.
Evolution du Coût moyen à la palette
300
350
400
450
500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021en
€ p
ar p
alet
te
Evolution du Coût moyen à la palette
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
en €
par
pal
ette
615 €/pal en 2012
478 €/pal en 2021
450 €/pal en 2012
404 €/pal en 2021
Average cost per pallets AMJAverage cost per pallets AMJ
� The share of the facilities and the rising of the flow lead to a 30 % cost decreasing
� Those values doesn’t include any profit for the railports and for Eurocarex
� Scenario 1
� Scénario 2
� The share of the facilities and the flow helps to have a 410€/pallets in 2012
� Those values doesn’t include any profit for the railports and for Eurocarex
Average Price per yearAverage Price per year
Average Price per yearAverage Price per year
Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008
.
CAREXEC73-3 DP 005 rev B Projet CAREX –Steering committee 15 may 2008
octobre 2008 – 13© 2007-2008 Groupe Elcimaï.
Coûts à la palette par trajet
0100200300400
500600700800900
LHR-C
DGNO
CDGNO-LHR
AMS-C
DGNO
CDGNO-AMS
LGG-C
DGNO
CDGNO-LGG
CGN-CDGNO
CDGNO-CGN
LYS-C
DGNOCDGNO-L
YSFRA-C
DGNO
CDGNO-FRA
2012
2021
Coûts à la palette par trajet
0100200300400
500600700800900
LHR-C
DGNO
CDGNO-LHR
AMS-C
DGNO
CDGNO-AMS
LGG-C
DGNO
CDGNO-LGG
CGN-CDGNO
CDGNO-CGN
LYS-C
DGNO
CDGNO-LYS
FRA-C
DGNO
CDGNO-FRA
2012
2021
A high cost for London in comparison between
SC1 and SC2
A high cost for London in comparison between
SC1 and SC2
LGGLHR AMS CGN LYS FRA
� Scenario 1
� Scenario 2
LGGLHR AMS CGN LYS FRA
� The differences between the coste comes from
� The part of single train and double train
� Slot price
� The London travel is emptier ( 80% ) than the Sc1 ( 83%)
Haul Cost per palletHaul Cost per pallet
Haul Cost per palletHaul Cost per pallet
Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008
.
CAREXEC73-3 DP 005 rev B Projet CAREX –Steering committee 15 may 2008
octobre 2008 – 14© 2007-2008 Groupe Elcimaï.
répartition des charges EUROCAREX en 2 012
Droit d'accès au railport
12%
prestations standards des rails
ports16%
Roulage17%
frais de structure
3%
sillons 28%
Matériel roulant loué
24%
Cost split of EUROCAREXCost split of EUROCAREX
� 124.6 millions euros of cost in 2012
� 152.0 millions euros of cost in 2021
� Scenario 2
Services
on the « Railports »
16%
Services
on the « Railports »
16%
Railway Paths
28%
Railway Paths
28%
Structure and holding cost
3%
Structure and holding cost
3%
Hauling Train exploitation cost
17%
Hauling Train exploitation cost
17%
“Railport” access
12%
“Railport” access
12%
Train rent
24%
Train rent
24%
Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008
.
CAREXEC73-3 DP 005 rev B Projet CAREX –Steering committee 15 may 2008
octobre 2008 – 15© 2007-2008 Groupe Elcimaï.
Pricing of the railport to EurocarxPricing of the railport to Eurocarx
� Without profit and without subsidies and local business, the railports shall sales to Eurocarex
� 36 € per pallets (scenario 2)
• Instead of 48€ (Scenario 1) for the standard services
� 1729 € par train access
• Scenario 1 and 2
refacturation des coûts plateformes
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
LHR AMS LGG CGN FRA LYS CDGNO
2012
2021
droit d'accès aux railports
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
LHR AMS LGG CGN FRA LYS CDGNO
2012
2021
refacturation des coûts plateformes
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
LHR AMS LGG CGN FRA LYS CDGNO
2012
2021
� Scénario 1
� Scénario 1
Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008
.
CAREXEC73-3 DP 005 rev B Projet CAREX –Steering committee 15 may 2008
octobre 2008 – 16© 2007-2008 Groupe Elcimaï.
Railports Turnover and costRailports Turnover and cost
� Accouting point
LHR AMS LGG CGN FRA LYS CDGNOSales proceedsAcces slot 1 942 1942 1942 1942 1942 1848 3192services 2 758 2693 1924 2667 2678 2796 3824spécifque service - 0 0 0 0 0 0
- 0 0 0 0 0 0local deveelppement - 0 0 0 0 0 0subsidies - 0 0 0 0 0 0TOTAL 4 700 4 635 3 866 4 609 4 620 4 645 7 016
0 0 0 0 0 0 0Costspécifque service - - - - - - - ground RP 14 15 15 15 15 15 15
Maintenance and issurance 77 76 69 76 76 96 170Taxes 216 212 165 211 211 216 312Salaries 1 613 1582 901 1558 1568 1662 2496 Railport depreciation 533 512 495 512 512 512 512Rail depreciation 465 465 465 465 465 447 786Railway junction 1 127 1127 1127 1127 1127 1065 1813Structure 47 46 39 46 46 46 70value 608 599 591 599 599 586 842tax on turnover - 0 0 0 0 0 0Total 4 700 4 635 3 866 4 609 4 620 4 645 7 016
profit 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008
.
CAREXEC73-3 DP 005 rev B Projet CAREX –Steering committee 15 may 2008
octobre 2008 – 17© 2007-2008 Groupe Elcimaï.
insuffisances de ressources de CDG No
-5 000 000 €
-4 500 000 €
-4 000 000 €
-3 500 000 €
-3 000 000 €
-2 500 000 €
-2 000 000 €
-1 500 000 €
-1 000 000 €
-500 000 €
- €
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Financing planFinancing plan
� The actual scenario , without any profit , can’t balance the funds application which are necessaries in 2009 , 2010 and 2011.
� Those 3 years are without any sales
- 60 M€- 60 M€
Eurocarex
CDG railport
Insuffisance de ressources d'EUROCAREX
-70 000 000 €
-60 000 000 €
-50 000 000 €
-40 000 000 €
-30 000 000 €
-20 000 000 €
-10 000 000 €
- €
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008
.
CAREXEC73-3 DP 005 rev B Projet CAREX –Steering committee 15 may 2008
octobre 2008 – 18© 2007-2008 Groupe Elcimaï.
SummarySummary
� Introduction
� Description of the scenarios
� Presentation of the result
� Analysis
Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008
.
CAREXEC73-3 DP 005 rev B Projet CAREX –Steering committee 15 may 2008
octobre 2008 – 19© 2007-2008 Groupe Elcimaï.
General analysisGeneral analysis
� The average costs per AMJ pallet are
�For 200 000 pallets and 20 trains : 615 €
�For 270 000 pallets and 20 trains : 450 €
�For 370 000 pallets and 26 trains : 404 €
� In any case the general conditions are
�A capacity of investment on the railports and for the
junction of maximum 236 M€
�Financing requirement of 60 M€ for the trains and for the
others investments while waiting for the sales proceeds
Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008
.
CAREXEC73-3 DP 005 rev B Projet CAREX –Steering committee 15 may 2008
octobre 2008 – 20© 2007-2008 Groupe Elcimaï.
Next stepsNext steps
� Working on a real railport network in ordre to increase the lows and for a better use of the facilities
� Detailed studies of the railport infrastructure and on the financial mode.
� Leading the competitive dialogue on the train but with the necessary construction of a purchase structure in front of the train suppliers
Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008Carex Business Plan – May 2008 – Update : October 2008