“Innovation in Emissions Mitigation – the Road Ahead for a Sustainable Future”
Melanie KenderdinePrincipal, Energy Futures Initiative
COP 24Katowice, Poland
December 13, 2018
Source: Lazard, Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis, Version 4.0, 2018
Two Views of LCOE: Generation Technologies, LCOE for Plants Entering Service in 2022 & LCOE/LCOS ($MWh)
2
$92.6Advanced Nuclear
$138.0Offshore Wind $165.1Solar Thermal$59.1Onshore Wind
Hydroelectric $61.7
$63.2Solar PV
$95.3Biomass$85.1Advanced CT
$130.1Coal with 30% CCS$74.9Advanced CC w/ CCS$48.1Advanced CC
$44.6Geothermal
US Natural Gas/ TechnologySource: EIA
Source: Lazard, Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis, Version 4.0, 2018
Solar PV, thin film
Solar thermal w/storage
Gas peaker
NGCC
US Natural Gas/ Technology
$142-$214
$98-$181
$36-$44
$35-$81
LCOE ($/MWh)
Flow (Zn)
Lithium
Flow (V)
Utility-Scale(PV +
Storage) $133-$222
$115-$167
$108-$140
LCOS ($/MWh)
Unsubsidized Levelized Cost of Storage
Hourly trends in solar and wind capacity factors in CA for 2017 aligned to normalized variation in hourly load relative to peak daily load
Over the course of a year large-scale dependence on both wind and solar will result in significant periods requiring very large-scale back-up options
Source: CAISO data, EFIanalysis
1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11121314 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 2324 2526 27 2829 30
31
3233 34 35 363738 39 40 4241
43 44 45 46 4748 49 50 51 53 555457
52 565958 6463 676566626160
6
687069 7271 7374 7675 78 8077 828179 83 84858687888990
Significant Challenges for Utility Scale Battery Storage
Expanded 45Q Tax Credit for Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS)
4US Natural Gas/Policy
Industry is the sector that is most difficult to decarbonize. Innovation
is needed in hydrogen, carbon capture, storage and utilization, and
biogas.
Two Innovations in Gas Generation
5
Digitally assisted hybrid generation• lower marginal costs by decreasing turbine
running time
• lower fuel costs outweigh the higher plant costs
to pay for the batteries in the 20-year period
• A more efficient use of the turbines may also
help extend the lifespan of the system
• increased turbine efficiency offers
environmental benefits in terms of lower
greenhouse gas emissions and water use
http://cairnera.com/research/company-reports/
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/inside-ge-and-socal-edisons-battery-integrated-gas-fired-peaker-plants#gs.pwaiqTQ
Supercritical CO2• a combustor burns natural gas and pure oxygen
producing only C02 &H20
• hot, high-pressured mixture is then passed
through a gas turbine to generate electricity.
• slightly cooled mixture exits the turbine, is then
separated into parts
• the necessary amount of carbon dioxide is
compressed to become supercritical again and
added back to the initial chamber, keeping a
steady amount of the gas circulating through the
system
• the remaining, pure stream of CO2 can be buried
underground
https://qz.com/129
2891/net-powers-
has-successfully-
fired-up-its-zero-
emissions-fossil-
fuel-power-plant/
Early Climate Gains from Methane Management
6
Enteric Fermentation
25%
Mgmnt.
Landfills 18%
Manure
9%
Emissions from the oil and natural gas industry represent the largest industrialsource of methane emissions globally. 2012 methane emissions were equal to 3% of total global naturalgas production, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) points to such emissions as one of the fivekey measures for effectivelyaddressing climate change.
• Renewable gas from anaerobic digesters in the US – if all potential gas were produced – would be roughly equivalent to 20% of total annual US gas consumption
• Nine states with renewable portfolio mandates include renewable gas • Renewable gas use could help greatly reduce emissions from the agricultural sector
US Natural Gas/Technology
Anerobic Digesters (operational) Emissions Reductions (ktCO2e/yr.)
≤ 25
26-100
> 100
under construction
• 253 operational projects in 36 states
• 27 projects under construction in 13 states
• More than three-fourths of the operational AD projects are found on dairy farms
• More than 8,100 candidate dairy and hog farms in the U.S. could technically support AD projects
Industry Needs to Do More on Methane Emissions
7
Production CO2 Emissions
Processing CO2
Emissions
T&D CO2 Emissions
Distribution Methane
EmissionsTransmission &
Storage Methane
Emissions
Processing
Methane EmissionsProduction Methane
Emissions
Sources: QER 1.1, 2015. EDF. Taking Aim, 2018
• According to IEA, 75% of methane emission reductions can be achieved with existing technologies.
• IEA notes that are achievable this 75% reduction from current methane emissions levels would have the same
near-term benefit fo shutting down all of China’s coal plants
• EDF recommends:
• Emissions from Oil Production – Not Just Gas Value Chain – Must be Targeted.
• Non-Operated Assets Are Key to Scale Impact
• Absolute Targets Are Preferable – 75 Percent Emission Reductions are Feasible
• 0.20 Percent Leakage Rate Feasible for Production
• Use and Report Rigorous Data and Analysis
These actions are expensive, particularly in a low cost environment. The news
out of this COP and the US Climate Assessment is however, not good. Early gains
are important. We should support public/private partnerships and programs to
get the 75% reductions as soon as possible.
Radia Inc. Confidential
This flare has been burningfor five years
Source: Radia, 2018
Speed of 150 mph
Lands on dirt strips or grass
in 500 m
Carries 50-200 ton/trip
Semi-buoyant AirplaneØ Larger than any current aircraftØ Large, unwieldy objects easily
attach to undersideØ Fast like a planeØ Lands slow like a blimp
Airborne Virtual Pipeline for Flared/Stranded Gas