“Innovation in Emissions Mitigation – the Road Ahead for a ... Media... · Solar PV $63.2 Advanced CT $85.1 Biomass $95.3 Advanced CC $48.1 Advanced CC w/ CCS $74.9Coal with 30%

“Innovation in Emissions Mitigation – the Road Ahead for a Sustainable Future”

Melanie KenderdinePrincipal, Energy Futures Initiative

COP 24Katowice, Poland

December 13, 2018

Source: Lazard, Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis, Version 4.0, 2018

Two Views of LCOE: Generation Technologies, LCOE for Plants Entering Service in 2022 & LCOE/LCOS ($MWh)

2

$92.6Advanced Nuclear

$138.0Offshore Wind $165.1Solar Thermal$59.1Onshore Wind

Hydroelectric $61.7

$63.2Solar PV

$95.3Biomass$85.1Advanced CT

$130.1Coal with 30% CCS$74.9Advanced CC w/ CCS$48.1Advanced CC

$44.6Geothermal

US Natural Gas/ TechnologySource: EIA

Source: Lazard, Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis, Version 4.0, 2018

Solar PV, thin film

Solar thermal w/storage

Gas peaker

NGCC

US Natural Gas/ Technology

$142-$214

$98-$181

$36-$44

$35-$81

LCOE ($/MWh)

Flow (Zn)

Lithium

Flow (V)

Utility-Scale(PV +

Storage) $133-$222

$115-$167

$108-$140

LCOS ($/MWh)

Unsubsidized Levelized Cost of Storage

Hourly trends in solar and wind capacity factors in CA for 2017 aligned to normalized variation in hourly load relative to peak daily load

Over the course of a year large-scale dependence on both wind and solar will result in significant periods requiring very large-scale back-up options

Source: CAISO data, EFIanalysis

1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11121314 15 16 17 18 19

20 21 22 2324 2526 27 2829 30

31

3233 34 35 363738 39 40 4241

43 44 45 46 4748 49 50 51 53 555457

52 565958 6463 676566626160

6

687069 7271 7374 7675 78 8077 828179 83 84858687888990

Significant Challenges for Utility Scale Battery Storage

Expanded 45Q Tax Credit for Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS)

4US Natural Gas/Policy

Industry is the sector that is most difficult to decarbonize. Innovation

is needed in hydrogen, carbon capture, storage and utilization, and

biogas.

Two Innovations in Gas Generation

5

Digitally assisted hybrid generation• lower marginal costs by decreasing turbine

running time

• lower fuel costs outweigh the higher plant costs

to pay for the batteries in the 20-year period

• A more efficient use of the turbines may also

help extend the lifespan of the system

• increased turbine efficiency offers

environmental benefits in terms of lower

greenhouse gas emissions and water use

http://cairnera.com/research/company-reports/

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/inside-ge-and-socal-edisons-battery-integrated-gas-fired-peaker-plants#gs.pwaiqTQ

Supercritical CO2• a combustor burns natural gas and pure oxygen

producing only C02 &H20

• hot, high-pressured mixture is then passed

through a gas turbine to generate electricity.

• slightly cooled mixture exits the turbine, is then

separated into parts

• the necessary amount of carbon dioxide is

compressed to become supercritical again and

added back to the initial chamber, keeping a

steady amount of the gas circulating through the

system

• the remaining, pure stream of CO2 can be buried

underground

https://qz.com/129

2891/net-powers-

has-successfully-

fired-up-its-zero-

emissions-fossil-

fuel-power-plant/

Early Climate Gains from Methane Management

6

Enteric Fermentation

25%

Mgmnt.

Landfills 18%

Manure

9%

Emissions from the oil and natural gas industry represent the largest industrialsource of methane emissions globally. 2012 methane emissions were equal to 3% of total global naturalgas production, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) points to such emissions as one of the fivekey measures for effectivelyaddressing climate change.

• Renewable gas from anaerobic digesters in the US – if all potential gas were produced – would be roughly equivalent to 20% of total annual US gas consumption

• Nine states with renewable portfolio mandates include renewable gas • Renewable gas use could help greatly reduce emissions from the agricultural sector

US Natural Gas/Technology

Anerobic Digesters (operational) Emissions Reductions (ktCO2e/yr.)

≤ 25

26-100

> 100

under construction

• 253 operational projects in 36 states

• 27 projects under construction in 13 states

• More than three-fourths of the operational AD projects are found on dairy farms

• More than 8,100 candidate dairy and hog farms in the U.S. could technically support AD projects

Industry Needs to Do More on Methane Emissions

7

Production CO2 Emissions

Processing CO2

Emissions

T&D CO2 Emissions

Distribution Methane

EmissionsTransmission &

Storage Methane

Emissions

Processing

Methane EmissionsProduction Methane

Emissions

Sources: QER 1.1, 2015. EDF. Taking Aim, 2018

• According to IEA, 75% of methane emission reductions can be achieved with existing technologies.

• IEA notes that are achievable this 75% reduction from current methane emissions levels would have the same

near-term benefit fo shutting down all of China’s coal plants

• EDF recommends:

• Emissions from Oil Production – Not Just Gas Value Chain – Must be Targeted.

• Non-Operated Assets Are Key to Scale Impact

• Absolute Targets Are Preferable – 75 Percent Emission Reductions are Feasible

• 0.20 Percent Leakage Rate Feasible for Production

• Use and Report Rigorous Data and Analysis

These actions are expensive, particularly in a low cost environment. The news

out of this COP and the US Climate Assessment is however, not good. Early gains

are important. We should support public/private partnerships and programs to

get the 75% reductions as soon as possible.

Radia Inc. Confidential

This flare has been burningfor five years

Source: Radia, 2018

Speed of 150 mph

Lands on dirt strips or grass

in 500 m

Carries 50-200 ton/trip

Semi-buoyant AirplaneØ Larger than any current aircraftØ Large, unwieldy objects easily

attach to undersideØ Fast like a planeØ Lands slow like a blimp

Airborne Virtual Pipeline for Flared/Stranded Gas