Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
Performance Evaluation Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple of AURAMS for Multiple
CasesCasesMichael Moran, Véronique Bouchet, Wanmin Gong, Paul Makar, Sophie
Cousineau, Louis-Philippe Crevier, Ashu Dastoor, Sunling Gong, Sylvain
Ménard, and Balbir Pabla
Meteorological Service of CanadaToronto, Ontario and Montreal,
Quebec
Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
Talk OutlineTalk Outline•What Is An AURAMS?•Case Studies & AQ Data Sources•Some Operational Evaluation Results•Some Diagnostic Evaluation Results •Some Real-Time Evaluation Results•Summary and Next Steps
Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
AURAMS Is “AURAMS Is “AA UUnified nified RRegional egional AAir-quality ir-quality MModelling odelling SSystem”ystem”
• Episodic, regional, size-resolved, chemically-characterized PM modelling system
• “Unified’ in sense that it considers multiple air pollutants and can be applied to multiple AQ issues (e.g., PM, acid deposition, tropospheric O3)
• Consists of 3 main components: regional emissions processing system; nonhydrostatic global meteorological model; “off-line” sectional PM regional air-quality
model• Current PM resolution: 12 size bins (0.01-40.96
m) and 9 chemical components (SO4=, NO3
-, NH4+,
BC, pOC, sOC, CM, SS, H2O)
Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Emissions Processing System (CEPS)
point mobile area biogenics
GEM(prognostic meteorological
model)
Population dataEconometric data
Land-use data
Geophysical data
National Emission Inventories
(Cdn, U.S.)
Meteorological observations
(OA)
PM2.5, PM10 Concentration Fields
Regional PM Model (CHRONOS+ADOM+CAM+new)Advection/diffusion (of 29 gaseous and 9x12 aerosol tracers) , emission (including gaseous precursors and size-segregated and chemically-resolved PM), dry deposition of gaseous tracer, coupled gaseous, aqueous-phase, aerosol/heterogeneous chemistry, secondary organic aerosol formation, aerosol microphysics (nucleation, condensation/evaporation, coagulation, CCN activation), size-dependent scavenging/wet deposition, size-dependent dry deposition of aerosols, gravitational settling/sedimentation.
Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
Model CharacteristicsModel Feature CMAQ AURAMSMet Driver MM5 or ETA GEM
Map Projection Lambert conformal Polar stereographic
Gas-Phase Chem CB4, RADM2, SAPRC ADOM-II
PM Size Distribution Modal (3 modes) Sectional (12 bins)
PM Composition 8 components 9 (including SS)
PM Processes emissions, nucleation, condensation,coagulation, sedimentation, cloud processing
Aqueous-Phase Chem RADM? ADOM
Heterogeneous Chem MARS, ISORROPIA ISORROPIA, HETV
Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
AURAMS Selected Evaluation Periods
Period CommentsAug. 1-6, 1988 EMEFS field experiment
July 7-15, 1995 NARSTO-NE field experiment
Feb. 4-15, 1998 Winter episode in SE Canada
Aug. 25-31, 2001 Pacific2001 field experiment
July 1, 2004 onward Experimental real-time run
Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
AURAMS Evaluation Period Data Sets
Period AQ Data SetsAug. 1-6, 1988 EMEFS field data
July 7-15, 1995 IMPROVE, NAPS, CAAMP, GAViM
Feb. 4-15, 1998 IMPROVE, NAPS, GAViM
Aug. 25-31, 2001 IMPROVE, NAPS, field data
July 1, 2004 onward AIRNOW O3 and PM2.5
Western & Eastern AURAMS Western & Eastern AURAMS DomainsDomains
Western Domain•148 x 124 x 29 •Δx=21 km
Eastern Domain•85 x 105 x 29 •Δx=42 km
PM2.5 SO4 O3
Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
Ground-Level O3, 1700 EDT, July 14th 1995
Coloured Station Circles Superimposed
On ContouredGridded Model Field,Same Colour Scheme
Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
Hourly O3, All Stations, July 12-15, 1995
Max. Observed: ~185 ppb
Max. Predicted: ~150 ppb
Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
24-Hour PM2.5 Species: July 8-16, 1995
PM2.5 SO4
NH4 NO3
NAPS Network,g m-3 @STP1-in-6
Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
PM2.5 & O3 Time Series, Feb. 7–14, 1998
PM2.5 PM2.5
PM2.5 O3
Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
Hourly O3 Hourly PM2.5
Evaluation of Hourly O3 and PM2.5 Predictions, Feb. 7-14, 1998
Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
24-Hour PM2.5 Species: Feb. 7-14, 1998
PM2.5
NH4
SO4
NO3
NAPS Network,g m-3 @STP1-in-6
Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
Satellite vs. GEM-Modelled Cloud Field
Cloud Fraction, 3085 m AGL
Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
precip . S O4= (um ol/L)
0.0 to 0 .1 0.1 to 10.0 10.0 to 20.0 20.0 to 30.0 30.0 to 60.0 60.0 to 120.0 120.0 to 350.0
M odelled O bserved
0800 July 31 - 0800 August 6 (ED T)
Six-Day Precip-Weighted SOSix-Day Precip-Weighted SO44==
Conc. Conc. In Precip (July 31-Aug. 5, 1988)In Precip (July 31-Aug. 5, 1988)
Modelled Observed
AURAMS Diagnostic Evaluation – AURAMS Diagnostic Evaluation – Pacific2001Pacific2001
Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
Note: Red stations are less than 250 km from Pacific coast .Blue stations > 250 km from Pacific coast.
Daily Speciated PM Comparison,Aug. 25-31, 2001
(IMPROVE, CAPMoN, NAPS)
PM2.5
SO4
PMtot SO4
PM2.5 NO3
PMtot NO3
PMtot NH4
PM2.5 EC
Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
Particle Size and SpeciationAMS data courtesy of Hacene Boudries, Aerodyne
Similar range and size distributionShort duration peaks in model lower than measurements
p-SO4
Pacific2001 p-SOPacific2001 p-SO44 AMS Time-Size Cross AMS Time-Size Cross SectionSection
Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
Langley, Aug. 29, 2001
Lidar data courtesyKevin Strawbridge, MSC
AURAMS captures the nighttime layer aloft detected by the lidar
Pacific2001 Lidar Time-Height Cross Pacific2001 Lidar Time-Height Cross SectionSection
Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
Same-Day Evaluation of Real-Time Forecasts (1)
Obs O - MModel
• Based on AIRNOW data feed• Summer 2004 for O3 and PM2.5
Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
Same-Day Evaluation of Real-Time Forecasts (2)
Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada
Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada
Summary and Next Steps
• AURAMS is an episodic, regional, size-resolved, chemically-characterized PM modelling system that includes a sectional PM CTM
• Operational, diagnostic, and real-time performance evaluations have all provided useful insights
• Older cases provide point of comparison with other models (e.g., ADOM, RADM) while newer cases provide richer PM and PM precursor data sets for multi-pollutant evaluations
• Additional cases (e.g., Eastern Supersite 2001/02 period, ICARTT/NEAQS-2K4 period), longer simulations, more fields (e.g., precip chemistry), more model intercomparisons are being pursued