Jos ée Morneau Gilles Verner Meteorological Service of Canada Dorval, Québec, Canada.

Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division

Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report

19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006

Josée MorneauGilles Verner

Meteorological Service of CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada.





Outline

• Current Operational Status: (Gilles Verner)

– MSC Organization and Satellite Reception Facilities– Telecoms and Computers– Operational NWP System at CMC and Data Usage– MSC Observing Networks and Canadian AMDAR– Recent changes to NWP System and impact

• Recent and Future Developments: (Josée Morneau)




Environment Canada – 2004

Minister David Anderson

Deputy Minister Suzanne Hurtubise

REGIONS

Ontario Atlantic Prairie & Northern Quebec Pacific & Yukon

A S S I S T A N T D E P U T Y M I N I S T E R S

Environmental Conservation Service

Karen Brown

Environmental Protection ServiceBarry Stemshorn

Meteorological Service of CanadaMarc Denis Everell

Canadian EnvironmentalAssessment Agency

Corp. Services Hélène

Beauchemin

Policy & Commumications.

Norine Smith




1. Air quality is improved[Gordon Owen]

3. Canadians and their environment are protected

from the effects of pollution and waste

4. The impacts of climate change on Canada are

reduced

2. Weather and environmental

predictions and services reduce risks and

contribute to the well-being of Canadians

1. Canada’s natural capital is restored,

conserved, and enhanced

3. Risks to Canadians and impacts on air, water, and land from pollutants or other harmful or dangerous substances are managed (Anne O’Toole l]

2. Risks to Canadians and their environment posed by pollutants or other harmful or dangerous substances are assessed[John Arseneau]

1. Canadians are informed of environmental pollution and are engaged in measures to address it[John Arseneau]

1. Wildlife is conserved and protected[Trevor Swerdfager]

2. Land and landscapes are managed sustainably. [Bob McLean ]

2. Science supports weather and environmental predictions and services, Departmental decision-making and policy development[Michel Béland ]

1. Environmental forecasts and warnings are produced to enable the public to take action to protect their safety, security and well being[Angèle Simard ]

Environment Canada 2006 – Results based Management

A. Biodiversity is conserved

and protected.

B. Water is clean, safe and secure

A. Improved knowledge and information on

weather and environmental

conditions influences decision-making

B. Canadians are informed of, and

respond appropriately to, current and

predicted environmental

conditions

B. Canadians adopt sustainable

consumption and production approaches

A. Risks posed by pollutants or other

harmful or dangerous substances in the environment are

reduced

A. Net emissions of greenhouse gases are

reduced.

B. Canadians understand the

impacts of climate change and adapt to its

effects

Attain the highest level of environmental quality as a means to enhance the well-being of Canadians, preserve our natural environment, and advance our long-term competitiveness

2. Canadians are better informed through improved weather and environmental services and leveraged partnership opportunities[David Grimes–l]

1. Environmental monitoring allows EC to identify, analyse and predict weather, air, water and climate conditions[Tom Nichols]

2. Sector-based, and other approaches promote sustainable consumption and production (Cynthia Wright ]

1. Integrated information and knowledge enables integrated approaches to protecting and conserving priority ecosystems[Jim Abraham & Albin Tremblay ]

2. Information, assessment and understanding of the state of ecosystem sustainability supports decision-making[Michelle Brenning]

3. Canadians benefit from the creation and use fo meteorological, and environmental information by EC and F/P/T partners, in support of programs of common interest[Ken Macdonald]

1. The climate change plan, Moving Forward on Climate Change, is implemented[Michael Beale

2. The long-term global climate change regime is consistent with Canadian interests[Sharon Lee Smith]

Departmental Strategic Outcomes

CESF Outcome:

Outcome Project Groupings

Intermediate Outcomes

C. Canadians adopt approaches that

ensure the sustainable use and

management of natural capital and

working landscapes

1. Aquatic ecosystems are conserved and protection[John Carey]

4. Environmental information and services empower Canadians to take action on environmental priorities[Suzan Bowserl]

1. Adaptive strategies to address the impacts of climate change are developed and implemented for the benefit of Canadians and the environment (Michel Béland]

CESF - Competitiveness and Environmental

Sustainability Framework




HRPT Receive Sites

CMC

Edmonton

Halifax

Gilmore Creek, Alaska

Tromso

Wallops, Virginia

Direct Receive

DOMSAT

EARS

ReadinessFor METOPNext Summer

Any METOP downloadsat Gilmore Creekand Wallops?




GOES Receive Sites

CMC (3)

Montréal

Edmonton

Halifax

Direct Receive

New - Gander?

ReadinessFor GOES-NNext Summer

Vamcouver

Winnipeg

Toronto

Ottawa




CMC Computer Centre Configuration

2004/03

6x ea

Supercomputing Cluster

SGIO3000's40 PEs

(MIPS R12K)

O2000 4 xR10K PEs

1.2 TB14x SCSIfrom OSS

Climate Archive

HPModel 30 &

60 RAID0.2 TB?

3x

1000 Mb/s switched128ports. Each host has links to

ops & dev net

SGIO300:8 PEs

Central File Server145 TB

4 DST drives20 MB/s ea.

LSI (1 TB 4X FC)

10x FCdual

attach

LSI11TB

Front Ends

FC Hubs 32 ports

Data Acquisition& Distribution

opsnet switched(1000+100+10)

CriticalWorkstations

devnet switched(1000+100+10)

Dev HPpairs

NationalProduct

DistributionServerMC/SG

2 x HP K370

SmallerHP pairs

PC's & WksNT/OTServers

2 x o200Monitoring

Servers

routers

8 x Front-End3 x Back-End

2 Data4 Climate

2 x Greenlane

DMZ nets (10)

router

AWWS2xHP

L-series

InternetServers

100 UNIX &150 MSdesktops

3x o200WrkGrpServers

Satnet Tx

PC's, Wks.&

Tandem

F820.05 TB

NASO3000 18 xR14K PEs

ASEPLinuxCluster

17 DL380

IBM SP -928 PE &2.19TB

LSI (8.67 TB FC)

8x




Telecommunications

• GTS link CMC - NWS: upgraded from 64 kbps to T1 during 2003

• Link UKMO-CMC still active (Meteosat - GOES - GTS back-up)

• Eumetsat - CMC link for EARS

• Internet still used for access to Nesdis data

• Funding for dedicated link (T1+) with Nesdis approved, should be implemented soon as operational link, after the Nesdis relocation




CMC Operational Models

Global Model Regional Model• Uniform grid• Resolution of .9º (~100 km)• 28 eta levels, lid at 10 hPa• Kuo convection scheme• Sundqvist stratiform scheme• Force-restore surface module with climatogical soil moisture• 10 day forecasts at 00Z and 6 day forecasts at 12Z.• Cut-off of T+3h10

• Variable resolution grid• Resolution of .1375º (~15 km) • 58 eta levels• Kain-Fritsch scheme• Sundqvist stratiform scheme• ISBA surface module with soil moisture pseudo-analysis (error feedback, no data)• 48-hour forecasts (00Z -12Z)• Cut-off of T+1h35

• 4D-Var assimilation on model η levels (T108), but 3D-Var for regional• Background errors stats from 24-48 method• Observations QC with BG check and QC-VAR• Single GEM model (global, regional, meso)




CMC Operational Models (cont.)

Mesoscale model Global EPS

• GEM-LAM at 2.5 km, L58• Non-hydrostatic• No convection parameterization• Explicit condensation (Kong-Yau)• ISBA surface module• No assimilation cycle (started from 12hr GEM-15 + BC)• 24 hour forecasts at 12Z• 2 windows (SRN BC, Windsor- Québec corridor), more later

• EnKF assimilation cycle with 96 members, GEM at 1.2º• Resolution of ~150 km (1.2º for GEM and T149 for SEF)• Forecasts with 16 members• Multi model approach with different physics options• 16 day forecasts at 00Z and 12Z• Cooperation with NCEP for NAEFS




575 X 641 grid (66% in 15-km uniformarea), 58 levels

Regionalmodel




Currently two GEM 2.5 domains




06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC 00 UTC

OBS OBST + 6h

OBST + 9h

OBST + 9h

OBST + 9h

OBST + 3h

OBST + 3h

OBST + 3h

00 UTC

240hglobal

fst

6-hglobal

first guess

6-hglobal

first guess

6-hglobal

first guess

4D-VarAnalysis

4D-VarAnalysis

4D-VarAnalysis

4D-VarAnalysis

6-hglobal

first guess

6-hglobal

first guess

4D-VarAnalysis

4D-VarAnalysis

4D-VarAnalysis

4D-VarAnalysis

T + 6h

OBST + 5h30

6-hregionalfirst guess

3D-VarAnalysis


T + 1h40OBS

3D-VarAnalysis

48hregional

fst

T + 1h40OBSOBS

T + 5h30

3D-VarAnalysis



3D-VarAnalysis

144hglobal

fst

Data assimilation cycles at CMC




(750 m) Verticalhourly

U,VProfiler

(NOAA Network)

~180 km boxes11 layers, per time step

U,VMODIS polar winds

(Aqua, Terra)

1.5o x 1.5o

11 layers, per time step

U,V

(IR, WV, VI channels)

AMV(Meteosat 5-8, GOES 10-12, MTSAT-1R)

2o x 2o

3-hourlyIM3

(6.7 )

Water vapor channel

GOES 10-12

250 km x 250 km

per time step

Ocean Land

AMSU-A 3-10 6-10

AMSU-B / MHS 2-5 3-4

ATOVS

NOAA 15-16-17-18, AQUA

1o x 1o x 50 hPaper time step

U, V, TAircraft

(BUFR, AIREP, AMDAR, ADS)

1 report / 6hT, (T-Td), ps, (U, V over water)Surface report

28 levelsU, V, T, (T-Td), psradiosonde/dropsonde

ThinningVariablesType

Observations assimilated at the CMC




Average amount of data assimilated per day

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000 3D-Var

4D-Var

+0%

+0%

+199% +107%

+47%

+76% +494%

• Overall ~ 800 000 data assimilated per day with 4D-Var• 60% increase over 3D-Var.




Availability of aircraft data

• ADS data collected by NavCanada: UANT01 CWAO (on GTS since July 05)

Q: Where are the ADS data East of 30° E?

Also AIREPs have almost disappearedthere !!




Canadian AMDAR coverage




Canadian AMDAR - Status

• AC Jazz: 33 CRJ and 39 DHC-8 on GTS, 10 DHC-8 retained due to problems with data quality. More CRJ being added. CRJ data very good.

• Still issues with DHC-8 TT data, although improved.• Some data from AMS (DHC-8 and B737) but not

used nor transmitted due to data quality issues.• Some progress with First Air (B737 or B727 with

TAMDAR) but data quality issues related to TAMDAR calibration. Some TAMDAR evaluation with GLFE.

• C-ADAS to be replaced by in-house software.• Monitoring of data is on-going. Results showing

importance of good monitoring before distribution of data.




TT data quality – JAZZ CRJ and DHC-8




TT data quality – JAZZ CRJ and DHC-8

For DHC-8, significant difference in bias between

ascent / descent data.

Related to smoothing algorithm in avionics.

CRJ data OK.




Monitoring of TAMDAR during GLFE





Some problems with GLFE TAMDAR data earlier in

experiment





GLFE TAMDAR data much improved after significant work

by AIRDAT. HR data not monitored.




Other Canadian observations

• Canadian AMDAR : other developments (although slow) with West Jet, AMS, Canadian North, First Air.

• “Synoptic” observations from CTBTO network, using SYNOP MOBIL code, header: SNCN19 CWAO. Observations every 10-min, 10 stations for now but should increase, received at CMC by e-mail.

• Canadian radar data - now available centrally at CMC, NRP (National Radar Processor) operational, full volume scans available.

• Forestry and Road weather stations in British Columbia - data received at CMC, in old SA format. Data redistribution restrictions currently apply…should eventually be available in BUFR.

• Co-operative network in Quebec (Province, Hydro-Quebec, etc), received at CMC, also redistribution restrictions…problems with BUFR data.

• Montreal mesonet, including research wind profiler: under installation but operated by Universities, data not yet available to CMC and redistribution restrictions may apply…should be provided to USA profiler hub

• Some soil TT data available, eventually in BUFR.• Code conversion to BUFR: Nothing done, except for AMDAR.• Ozone soundings on GTS (KULA01 CWAO) and total column ozone.• Major data management project in MSC, should lead to all data available in

BUFR. Target is 2-3 years.




Ozone/UV Monitoring Networks

Brewer: UVA/B and total column ozone at 9

sites. Data in NRT in local ascii format.

Ozone soundings now done once

weekly at 10 sites. Data on GTS in CREX, 2-3 days

after measurement.

Both are Research networks. Some

discussions for better operations, including

data transmission and formats.




CACS/RT: Canada-Wide Real-Time(GPS*C Service) CACS/PGR: Post-Glacial ReboundCACS/ATS: Arctic Tracking StationsCACS/GLP: Great Lakes Partnership (Sfc Met, CSA/MSC)CACS/WCDA: Western Canada Deformation Array

PRDS

DRAO ALBH

CHUR

ALGO

STJO

YELL

SCH2

NRC1

WHIT

WINN FRDN

HLFX

BAIE ELIZ BCOV NTKA NANO PTAL PGC5 UCLU

KNGS

PARY

PWEL

ROSS

HOLM

INVK

ALRT

EURK

SACH TUKT RESO

VALD PICL

KUUJ

BAKE

CHWK

WSLR

WILL

NAIN

KIQI

FLIN

A potential Canadian ground-based GPS network

Not shown: regional (provincial) networks, Canadian Coast Guard sites

Raw GPS data received for ~30 sites from NRCan and IGS via FTP and processed in-house to ZTD (since Summer 2005)

Sfc Met at 19 sites

Hourly network (GAMIT) and Point Positioning (PPP) solutions are made available in NRT (J. Aparicio)

Potential of ~ 127 sites

not processedprocessed by NOAA/FSL

= Radiosonde-GPS collocations (7)




Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting

Minor changes :• AMV’s from MTSAT-1R : July 2005 (replacing GOES-P)• Blacklisting of DHC-8 AMDAR : Oct 2005• Blacklisting amsu-a ch 6 from NOAA-15 : Oct 2005• Blacklisting amsu-b ch a from NOAA-15 : Jan 2006

Assimilation of satellite data, December 7, 2005, in Global + Regional systems

• AMSU-A and MHS on NOAA-18• BUFR Winds for Meteosat-8 (replacing Meteosat-7)

Major changes to EPS on December 13, 2005

• Forecast twice a day to day 16• Inclusion of MODIS winds and AMSUA on AQUA• Improvements to EnKF algorithm (model error)• EnKF – 2x48 members replaced by 4x24 (better stats)• In forecast models, use of ISBA for ½ of members




Recent NWP verification

GEM-15

4D-Var

New Sat data




CSA Chinook mission

• The CSA decided in early 2004 to make SWIFT the primary instrument for their second SciSat mission

• The CSA selects GPS instrument as secondary payload with SWIFT and creates the Chinook Mission Chinook Mission March 2005

• SWIFTSWIFT and partner experiment ARGOARGO are just about to start mission phase B/C contract/studies for projected launch in Nov 2010, 3 year mission

• Unclear at this stage if data will be available in real-time, work and funding needed for this.




PART 2 : Outline Recent & future developments

• 2006 :– Summer : new version of global model for Medium-range

forecasting system & 4D-Var analysis changes– Fall : Update to Regional model for Short-Range

Forecasting system• 2007 :

– Winter : • METOP amsu-a & mhs, AIRS, SSMI & SSMI/S, COSMIC, 3

hourly sfc obs, QuikSCAT, update to AMV’s.• Revised bgck & obs error statistics.• Off-line biais correction for radiance data.

• 2008+ :– Raise global model lid to 0,1 hPa– More obs …– GEM-LAM with Continental/Local 4D-Var LAM




Main Features of the New Model VersionMain Features of the New Model Version

• Increased horizontal and vertical resolution

• 800x600x58L (33 km) compared to 400x200x28L (100 km)

• Numerical poles at geographic locations (non-rotated)

• Representation of clouds and precipitation• Shallow convection with Kuo Transient• Deep convection with Kain-Fritsch (vs Kuo)• Modified Sundqvist scheme for grid-scale condensation

• Bougeault-Lacarrère for the turbulent mixing length (vs Blackadar)

• Constant thermodynamic roughness length over water in the Tropics (vs Charnock everywhere)

• ISBA land surface scheme with sequential assimilation of soil moisture (based on OI) (vs Force-Restore)

(Stéphane Bélair, MRD)




Other Changes to the 4D-Var AnalysisOther Changes to the 4D-Var Analysis(Stéphane Laroche, MRD)

GEM-Glb New GEM-Glb

Outer loops 2 2

High-resolution (trajectory)

400x200x28L

Time step = 45 min

800x600x58L

Time step = 15 min

NL- Physics Same as GEM-Glb Same as new model

Inner loops 40 + 30 = 70 30 + 25 = 55

Simplified Physics -PBL & SGO-Stratiform precip.-Deep convection

-PBL & SGO-Stratiform precip.

Low-resolution (Analysis increments)

240x120x28L

Time step = 45 min

240x120x58L

Time step = 45 min

Error statistics NMC (1999) NMC (revised)




Horizontal GridHorizontal Grid

EnvironmentCanada CPOP – 11 April 2006

Opérationnel Global-méso400X200 -> 100 km 800X600 -> 33 km at 45o N




Vertical LevelsVertical Levels

Opérationnel10hPa

28 eta levelsDZ (km)

Global-méso10hPa

58 eta levelsDZ (km)




JAN 2002

Contours:(mm/day)0-11-5 5-1010-20>20

Global Evaluation of PrecipitationGlobal Evaluation of Precipitation

GPCP

NEW

OPE




GPCP

NEW

OPE

JUL 2002

Contours:(mm/day)0-11-5 5-1010-20>20

Global Evaluation of PrecipitationGlobal Evaluation of Precipitation




Global Evaluation of Clouds with SSMGlobal Evaluation of Clouds with SSM/I/I

WINTER

new opeSSMI-13

new opeSSMI-13




Global Evaluation of Clouds with SSMGlobal Evaluation of Clouds with SSM/I/I

SUMMER

new opeSSMI-13

new opeSSMI-13




Pre-implementation testingPre-implementation testing

Evaluation was done on 2 periods of two months each:

Summer 2004: 15 july @ 15 sept. 2004Winter 2005: 15 dec 2004 @ 15 feb 2005




EnvironmentCanada

Objective Evaluation Against AnalysesObjective Evaluation Against AnalysesAnomaly Correlations (Northern Hem.)Anomaly Correlations (Northern Hem.)

Summer Winter




EnvironmentCanada

Objective Evaluation Against AnalysesObjective Evaluation Against AnalysesAnomaly Correlations (Southern Hem.)Anomaly Correlations (Southern Hem.)

Summer Winter




Tropics

72-h forecasts

RMSE and BIAS

125 SUMMER cases

Blue: Operational model

Red: Global Meso




Precipitation over North AmericaPrecipitation over North America(day 3)(day 3)

Summer Winter




Systematic Evaluation of Hurricanes and Systematic Evaluation of Hurricanes and Typhoons over 14 cases (3-day runs)Typhoons over 14 cases (3-day runs)

EnvironmentCanada

(Anne-Marie Leduc, CMC)

Central pressure (hPa)

Position (km)

Erreur moyenne sur la position (14 cas)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72

Heure de prevision

err

eu

r m

oy

en

ne

(K

M)

meso

oper

Erreur moyenne de la pression centrale (14 cas)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72

Heure de prevision

Err

eu

r m

oy

en

ne

(M

B)

meso

oper




Winter 2007 : more observations & revised statistics

• AIRS & SSMI radiances• 3 hourly sfc data• Off-line biais correction for radiances data.• Revised background & observation errors

statistics• More low level AMV’s• SSMI/S radiances• QuikSCAT• Metop ATOVS amsu-a & mhs• COSMIC refractivity




AIRS assimilation

• 100 channels selected from 281 set• Use center pixel of 3 X 3 array (warmest now

available) • Eliminate channels sensitive to ozone, peaking above

model top at 10hPa, redundant surface channels, complex Jacobian shapes, with large RTM errors

Identify channels insensitive to clouds. Main criteria:• Cloud height and emissivity from CO2 slicing. Local

dtau/dp must be negligible up to 50hpa above cloud.• Background check (+/- 3 )




AIRS assimilation

Short global cyclewith current operational model (0,9o)

February 2004




SSMI assimilation :Experiment Description

• Periods: July 1-31, 2003 ; January 1-31, 2004• Control: 3D-Var, Global 0.9o model, direct

assim. of GOES-W, and NOAA15,16,17* AMSU-A & AMSU-B Tbs, plus conventional obs

• Experiment 1: addition of SSM/I Tbs over oceans in clear skies

• Experiment 8: addition of SSM/I Tbs & removal of AMSU-A CH3, & reject AMSU-B CH2, 3, 4, 5 over oceans where CH2 |O-B| 5K

(*AMSU-A data unavailable for January 2004)




Mean Integrated Water Vapour (kg m-2): AMSRE – ANALYSIS

July 2003 January 2004




Forecast Validation Using Analyses

CNTLEXP8

CNTLEXP1

January 2004




New Background Error Covariances

• 3-D background error std dev computed using Monte Carlo approach

• Will replace the NMC approach used for current operational system.

• Higher values in tropics than extra-tropics and higher values over oceans than over continents

Streamfunction at 500hPa(filtered to T20)

Winter 2007 : Updated background and observation error statistics (Mark Buehner, MRD)




Background Error Spatial Correlations

• Analysis increment from single zonal wind observation at 500hPa over Atlantic ocean

• New approach gives sharper spatial correlations for all variables

• Sharper vertical correlations for temperature results in smaller background error variance in space of AMSU-A observations, compensated by reduction in σobs

NMC method Monte Carlo method

NMC methodMonte Carlo method




Future development

• 2007-08+ :– Raise global model lid to 0,1 hPa– More obs :

• High level peaking channels from AIRS & ATOVS

• Hourly sfc pressure data• More GEO radiances• Scat winds (ASCAT)• AQ data

– GEM-LAM Continental/Local 4D-Var LAM




Thank you

Jos ée Morneau Gilles Verner Meteorological Service of Canada Dorval, Québec, Canada.

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