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David CarrollAPPRISE
National WAP Evaluation: Savings and Opportunities for Baseload Electric
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Presentation Overview
WAP PY 2008 Electric Baseload Installation Rates
WAP PY 2008 Electric Baseload Savings Estimates
Opportunities – Electric Usage by Low Income Households
Missed Opportunities – Behavior Related Savings Opportunities
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WAP PY 2008 ELECTRIC BASELOAD INSTALLATION
RATES
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Climate Zones
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Electric Baseload Measure Installation Rates by Climate
Zone
Lights Refrigerators
TOTAL 60% 17%
Very Cold 68% 26%
Cold 59% 19%
Moderate 54% 9%
Hot/Wet 57% 5%
Hot/Dry 61% 11%
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Electric Baseload Measure Installation Rates by Building
Type
Lights Refrigerators
TOTAL 60% 17%
Single Family 55% 12%
Multifamily 75% 33%
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Refrigerator Replacement
PY 2008 Installation Rate– 17% of weatherization clients
2005 RECS Data:– Households with refrigerator 20 years or older = 14%
– Households with refrigerator 10-19 years = 24%
20 Years or older will be pre 1992 and have highest savings potential
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CFL Installation
PY 2008 Installation Rate– 60% of weatherization clients
2005 RECS Data:– Households with 1 or more CFLs = 31%
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WAP PY 2008 ELECTRIC BASELOAD SAVINGS
ESTIMATES
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Electric Baseload Savings Estimates
kWh per Installation in Single Family Homes
Average for all Single Family WAP Clients
TOTAL 527 kWh
Refrigerators 661 kWh 112 kWh
Lights 220 kWh 132 kWh
Other 283 kWh
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2005 ELECTRIC USAGE BY LOW INCOME
HOUSEHOLDS IN SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
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Electric Usage – Low Income Single Family with Gas Main
Heating Fuel
Single Family Detached Single Family Attached
Average 9,331 kWh / year 6,632 kWh / year
< 4,000 kWh 12% 27%
4000-<8000 37% 37%
8000-<12,000 27% 29%
12,000 or More 24% 7%
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MISSED OPPORTUNITIES – BEHAVIOR RELATED ELECTRIC ENERGY
SAVINGS
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ECW Plug Load StudyPotential Education Savings
Computers – Potential Savings from Power Management
% of HomesEstimated Average
Savings
Always on 20% 400 kWh
Long idle periods 40% 190 kWh
Off when not used 25% 15 kWh
Not used much 15% 2 kWh
Average Savings 160 kWh
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Dehumidifier
Incidence– 6% of low income households have a dehumidifier
Potential Savings– 2 kWh per day * 180 days = 360 kWh
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Projection TV
Incidence– 18% of low income households have a large screen tv
Potential Savings– 20 W per hour * 12 hours = 240 Wh
– .24 kWh per day * 365 days = 91.25 kWh
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Projections vs. Impacts
Basic Projection Methodology– Assumptions
Measure installation rates Measure retention rates Pre installation usage Measure effectiveness
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Projections vs. Impacts
Basic Projection Methodology– Calculation
Average household saving= Measure Installation Rate * Measure Retention Rate *(Pre Installation Usage – Post Installation Usage)
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Projections vs. Impacts
Basic Projection Methodology– Calculation
Pre Installation Usage per bulb per hour= 60 watts * .001 = .06 kWh
Post Installation Usage per bulb per hour= 13 watts * .001 = .013 kWh
Change per Bulb per hour=.06 - .013 = .047 kWh
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Projections vs. Impacts
Basic Projection Methodology– Calculation
Change per bulb per day= .047 kWh * 2.5 hours/day= .1175 kWh/day
Change per bulb per year= . 1175 kWh/day * 365 days= 43 kWh/year
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Projections vs. Impacts
Basic Projection Methodology– Calculation
Number installed per home= 43 kWh * 8 bulbs= 344 kWh
Retention rate= 344 kWh *.8= 275 kWh saved per home per year
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Projections vs. Impacts
So simple, what could go wrong… Incorrect assumptions
– Measure installation rate
– Measure retention rate Bulbs left for occupants to install Bulbs removed Bulbs broken
– Existing bulb kWh
– Hours of use
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Projections vs. Impacts
So simple, what could go wrong… Interactions
– Adding up individual measure savings can overstate results
– Need to account for reduced heat gain from CFLs Increase heating usage Reduce cooling usage
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