BRAZIL
UNITED STATES
CANADA
MEXICO
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KAZAKHSTAN
CHINA
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PERU
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OMAN
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ECUADOR
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EL SALVADOR
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IVORY COAST
SIERRA LEONE
LIBERIA GHANA TOGO
SAO TOME& PRINCIPE
GUIANA
SURINAM
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TRINIDAD & TOBACCO
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ILE DE LA RÉUNION
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ERITREA
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UZBEKISTAN
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TAJIKISTANTURKMENISTAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN
THAILAND
PARAGUAY
CHILE
URUGUAY
AFGHANISTAN
160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS
COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 2ND QUARTER 2015
RISK OF BUSINESSES DEFAULTING A1 A2 A3 A4 B C DVERY LOW LOW QUITE ACCEPTABLE ACCEPTABLE SIGNIFICANT HIGH VERY HIGH
A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk
• Comprehension of the business environment
• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience
CHINA
The level of the private sector debt has been increasing: 207 % of GDP in early 2014 compared to 130% of GDP in 2008 and non-performing loans are on the rise. Solvency of the most fragile players needs to be watched, especially within industries experiencing overcapacities (cement or steel sectors) and real estate market (real estate investment is slowing and property prices are declining).
DOWNGRADE
PORTUGAL
After Portugal’s exit from the bailout plan, the country sees an improvement in its fiscal position and a rebalancing of its external accounts. Growth should reach 1.5 % in 2015 and 2016. On the business side: higher margins, decline in bankruptcies and satisfactory payment experience.
CZECH REPUBLICThe country is benefiting from the economy recovery in Western Europe. The growth should reach a comfortable level (2.5 % in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016).
VIETNAM
Improvement in the economicperformance (6% growth in GDP in 2014) and an acceleration in private consumption, thanks to low inflation. The external risk has reduced the current account surplus and the exchange reserves progress.
UPGRADES
B
A4 A3 B A4TURKEY
GERMANY
FRANCE
ITALY
SPAIN
UNITED KINGDOM
FINLAND
SWEDEN
DENMARK
PORTUGAL
ICELAND
IRELAND
RUSSIA
LITHUANIA
LATVIA
ROMANIA
POLAND
UKRAINE
BULGARIA
HUNGARY
SLOVAKIA
CZECHREPUBLIC
GREECE
KOSOVO
ALBANIA
MONTENEGRO
BOSNIA
CROATIA
SERBIA
NETHERLANDS
LUXEMBOURG
ESTONIA
BELARUS
MALTA
CYPRUS
MOLDOVA
BELGIUM
NORWAY
SLOVENIA
MACEDONIA
SWITZERLANDAUSTRIA
A4
A4
A3
