BRAZIL UNITED STATES CANADA MEXICO ALGERIA RUSSIA KAZAKHSTAN CHINA AUSTRALIA SAUDI ARABIA INDIA ARGENTINA PERU BOLIVIA VENEZUELA MONGOLIA TURKEY LIBYA ICELAND EGYPT JAPAN SUDAN PAKISTAN OMAN YEMEN MADAGASCAR INDONESIA PHILIPPINES ECUADOR NIGER CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC KENYA ETHIOPIA ZAIRE (DRC) TANZANIA SOUTH AFRICA LESOTHO ANGOLA MOROCCO MAURITANIA NAMIBIA ZAMBIA MOZAMBIQUE GABON IRAK SRI LANKA BANGLADESH MYANMAR VIETNAM PAPUA NEW GUINEA TIMOR-LESTE NEW ZEALAND SOUTH KOREA CAMBODIA LAOS MALAYSIA IRAN NIGERIA CHAD MALI TUNISIA ISRAEL JORDAN SYRIA LEBANON DJIBOUTI KUWAIT TAIWAN COLOMBIA COSTA-RICA FRENCH GUIANA PANAMA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAITI CUBA GUATEMALA EL SALVADOR NICARAGUA HONDURAS JAMAICA FRENCH ANTILLES GUINEA IVORY COAST SIERRA LEONE LIBERIA GHANA TOGO SAO TOME & PRINCIPE GUIANA SURINAM RWANDA BURUNDI CYPRUS BAHRAIN QATAR UNITED ARAB EMIRATES FRENCH POYNESIA TRINIDAD & TOBACCO PALESTINE MALDIVES HONG KONG SINGAPORE MAURITIUS ILE DE LA RÉUNION CAP VERT GROENLAND (DENMARK) ERITREA CAMEROON UGANDA BENIN BURKINA FASO CONGO MALAWI ZIMBABWE SENEGAL BOTSWANA NEPAL UZBEKISTAN KYRGYZSTAN TAJIKISTAN TURKMENISTAN GEORGIA ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN THAILAND PARAGUAY CHILE URUGUAY AFGHANISTAN 160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 2 ND QUARTER 2015 RISK OF BUSINESSES DEFAULTING A1 A2 A3 A4 B C D VERY LOW LOW QUITE ACCEPTABLE ACCEPTABLE SIGNIFICANT HIGH VERY HIGH A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY • Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk • Comprehension of the business environment • Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience CHINA The level of the private sector debt has been increasing: 207 % of GDP in early 2014 compared to 130% of GDP in 2008 and non-performing loans are on the rise. Solvency of the most fragile players needs to be watched, especially within industries experiencing overcapacities (cement or steel sectors) and real estate market (real estate investment is slowing and property prices are declining). DOWNGRADE PORTUGAL After Portugal’s exit from the bailout plan, the country sees an improvement in its fiscal position and a rebalancing of its external accounts. Growth should reach 1.5 % in 2015 and 2016. On the business side: higher margins, decline in bankruptcies and satisfactory payment experience. CZECH REPUBLIC The country is benefiting from the economy recovery in Western Europe. The growth should reach a comfortable level (2.5 % in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016). VIETNAM Improvement in the economic performance (6% growth in GDP in 2014) and an acceleration in private consumption, thanks to low inflation. The external risk has reduced the current account surplus and the exchange reserves progress. UPGRADES B A4 A3 B A4 GERMANY FRANCE ITALY SPAIN UNITED KINGDOM FINLAND SWEDEN DENMARK PORTUGAL ICELAND IRELAND LITHUANIA LATVIA ROMANIA POLAND UKRAINE BULGARIA HUNGARY SLOVAKIA CZECH REPUBLIC GREECE KOSOVO ALBANIA MONTENEGRO BOSNIA CROATIA SERBIA NETHERLANDS LUXEMBOURG ESTONIA BELARUS MALTA MOLDOVA BELGIUM NORWAY SLOVENIA MACEDONIA SWITZERLAND AUSTRIA A4 A4 A3