Developing scenarios for analyzing and managing trade- offs Monika Zurek Climate Focus BV Amsterdam, NL
Jan 21, 2015
Developing scenarios for analyzing and managing trade-offsMonika ZurekClimate Focus BVAmsterdam, NL
This talk focuses on:
Scenario planning as a tool for analyzing and managing trade-off
Examples from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenario work to illustrate the use of scenario planning for exploring different trade-offs decision makers face
Trade-offs Involved in Resource Management Decisions
Source: Ayensu et al. 1999. Science 286:685-686.
Freshwater supply and demand
Food supply and demand
Forest product supply and demand
Biodiversityloss
Climatechange
Water availability
Water use and nutrient loss
Erosion andwater flow
Loss
and f
ragmen
tation
of ha
bitat
Redu
ced r
esilie
nce t
o cha
nge
Habit
at lo
ss
Habitat loss
Loss of crop genetic diversityHabitat change
Change in transpiration & albedo
N, C
H 4, N 20
em
ission
s
Hydr
ologic
CO 2 a
nd
tem
pera
ture
chan
ges
Precipitation & temperature
Land transformation
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment was
An international scientific assessment completed in 2005. Conducted by ~1400 scientists from 100 countries.
Focused on the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well-being
Designed to meet a portion of the assessment needs of international conventions, private sector, civil society and others
Undertaken at multiple scales (local to global) Designed to both provide information and build
capacity to provide information Expected to be repeated at 5-10 year intervals if it
successfully meets needs
MA Conceptual Framework
Direct Drivers
Indirect Drivers
EcosystemServices
Human Well-being
Direct Drivers of Change Changes in land use Species introduction or
removal Technology adaptation and
use External inputs (e.g.,
irrigation) Resource consumption Climate change Natural physical and
biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes)
Indirect Drivers of Change
Demographic Economic (globalization,
trade, market and policy framework)
Sociopolitical (governance and institutional framework)
Science and Technology Cultural and Religious
Human Well-being and Poverty Reduction
Basic material for a good life Health Good Social Relations Security Freedom of choice and
action
Types of Ecosystem Services Trade-offs portrayed in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios
MA 2005, Vol 3
VITAL SIGNS DECISION INDICATORS CATEGORIES
Thread Indicator Agriculture
Human well
being
Ecosystems
Services
Climate Forcing Net AFOLU Climate Forcing X
Biodiversity Biodiversity Security X
Wood Fuel Wood fuel Energy Security X X
LivestockRangeland degradation X
Forage Adequacy X X
Water Water Security X X X
Resilience Resilience or buffering index X X X
Inclusive Wealth
Sustainability index X X X
Food Security Food Security Index X X
Soil Health Soil Health Index X X
Ag. Intensification
Yield Target (%) X
Poverty Poverty X
Health Prevalence of malaria, diarrhea, anemia X
Nutrition % overweight, under weight, stunting, and wasting X
How can scenario development/ forward looking work help with analyzing and managing trade-offs
Better understand the elements and driving forces, their speed and interactions, which govern the system
Clarify the multiple objectives that stakeholders have with respect to the system’s management
Analyze and visualize trade-offs often made implicitly when deciding on a course of action
Decide on and communicate a strategy for managing the system
The scenarios approach - What are scenarios? Plausible stories about how the future might unfold from existing patterns, new factors and alternative human choices. The stories can be told in the language of both words and numbers (Raskin, in press).
Plausible descriptions of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces (Nakicenovic 2000).
A tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments in which one’s decision might be played out (Schwartz 1996).
Plausible alternative futures, each an example of what might happen under particular assumptions (MA).
Boundaries•Spatial•Thematic•Temporal
Boundaries•Spatial•Thematic•TemporalKey Dimensions
•Multi-dimensional space of variables
Key Dimensions•Multi-dimensional space of variables
Current Situation•Historic context•Institutional description•Quantitative accounts
Current Situation•Historic context•Institutional description•Quantitative accounts
Driving Forces•Trends•Processes
Driving Forces•Trends•Processes
Critical Uncertainties•Resolution alters course of events
Critical Uncertainties•Resolution alters course of events
Anatomy of scenarios
Plot•Captures dynamics•Communicates effectively
Plot•Captures dynamics•Communicates effectively
Image of the Future
Image of the Future
Source: P. Raskin 2002
Steps in a scenario planning exercise
Decide on purpose of scenario and stakeholder involvement
Back casting exercise Identification of main areas of uncertainty Identification of main drivers of change Develop first set of storylines Critically assess storylines Identify important surprises Decide on modeling capacity Stakeholder feedback session & iterations Final write up
Good Scenarios should
be plausible (or ‘not implausible‘)
be internally consistent and coherent
be constructed with rigour, detail & creativity
meet the goals of scenario exercise
Source: T. Henrichs 2003
The focal questions of the MA scenarios Consequences (in 50 years) of plausible changes in
drivers and development pathways For ecosystems and their services For human well-being
Four scenarios. What happens when decision-makers 1. Emphasize global economic policy reform 2. Give primary emphasis to self-reliance, security and
the local and regional environment 3. Emphasize the development and use of technologies
allowing greater eco-efficiency and adaptive control
4. Emphasize adaptive co-management and local learning about socio-ecological systems
The MA scenarios
globalized fragmented
Environmentally reactive
Environmentally pro-active
AdaptingMosaic
Order from Strength
TechnoGarden
Global Orchestration
Modeling to quantify parts of the MA scenarios
Storylines
Economic Optimism Techno Garden, etc.
IMPACTWorld food production
IMAGE 2 Global change
WaterGAPWorld water resources
Model Inputs
Demographic Economic Technological
AIM Global change
Model Outputs
Provisioning Services - Food (meat, fish, grain production)- Fiber (timber)- Freshwater (renewable water resources & withdrawals)- Fuel wood (biofuels)
Regulating - Climate regulation (C flux) - Air quality (NOx, S emissions)
Supporting primary production
…and to make it more complicated: Ecological Feedbacks
IMPACTWorld food production
IMAGE 2 Global change
WaterGAPWorld water resources
Model Inputs
Demographic Economic Technological
AIM Global change
Number of Species
Ecosystem Function
Ecological Feedbacks
Biodiversity Models
Measures of habitat (e.g. land cover, river discharge)
Crop Land Forest Area
Changes in crop land and forest area under MA Scenarios
Some results related to agriculture
Demand for provisioning services, such as food, fiber, and water, increases across scenarios.
Food security remains out of reach for many people and child malnutrition will be difficult to eradicate even by 2050, despite increasing food supply under all four scenarios and more diversified diets in poor countries.
Ecosystem services outcome across the scenarios
Human Well-being across the scenarios
How can scenario development/ forward looking work help with analyzing AND managing trade-offs
Better understand the elements and driving forces, their speed and interactions, which govern the system
Clarify the multiple objectives that stakeholders have with respect to the system’s management
Analyze and visualize trade-offs often made implicitly when deciding on a course of action
Decide on and communicate a strategy for managing the system
Examples of trade-off decisions faced at different scales when managing agricultural systems
Farm: Fertilizer use versus water quality
Region: Intensifying production versus taking new land
into production Globe:
Managing agriculture for food production alone versus food AND environmental stewardship
Managing agriculture-environment-human wellbeing trade-offs proactively or reactively
Greenhouse gas emissions changes across the scenarios