II. Trade-offs at landscape & watershed level – an introduction Meine van Noordwijk Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems Identifying and quantifying trade-offs across temporal and spatial scales between productivity, food security, profitability and ecological services Wageningen, February 2013
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Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_Keynote Meine van Noordwijk
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II. Trade-offs at landscape & watershed level – an
introduction
Meine van Noordwijk
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural SystemsIdentifying and quantifying trade-offs across temporal and spatial scalesbetween productivity, food security, profitability and ecological services
Wageningen, February 2013
Landscape Space
People
Land Use Systems
Institutions
Functions, services
GeologyLand forms
Climate
VegetationFlora&fauna
Hydrology
Value chains Landscape -
Planning, Incentives
mul
tifun
ction
ality
Te
nure
Outline• Landscape & watershed: linking kowledge with
action for sustainagility (antifragility sensu Taleb)• Balancing CGIAR SLO 1+2+3 versus SLO 4• Tree cover transitions: role for agricultural
effects: colours of water• Sentinel landscapes as research tools
The logarithm of human population density is a good predictor of the fraction of land area reported as forest (across different forest
types)We can identify countries that
have more than 10% extra, or
more than 10% forest deficit
relative to what is expected for their
population density
For 29 Developing Countries reporting increases in fo-rest area (“beyond forest transition point”), the pattern
matches that of 83 other Developing Countries
However, FT patterns are less likely in countries that have more than 10% forest deficit
A key assumption in the CGIAR is the Borlaug hypothesis that ag yield increase will save forests…
There’s a little bit of evidence suporting it, but not a lot…
Increasing log PopDens
decreases forest cover
Increasing Ag Land
Suitability increases
forest cover
Increasing Cereal Yield
(weakly) increases
forest cover
Forest decline is correlated with
Forest recovery is correlated with
Overall pattern dominated by humid forest, dry forest data deviate
Some evidence for Central America suggests that Recovery part of the FT curve correlates with Human
Development Index (HDI)
There’s a In the global data set however, country level HDI does not add much clarity to the pattern
There is some indication of a curvi-linear relation between HDI and the forest cover excess/deficit
Pre- post FT
Increase in HDI replaces firewood footprint by foot-print based on forest fibre
Forest transition points are less likely where the firewood footprint still exceeds 0.15 ha p.p.
Meyfroidt P, Rudel TK, Lambin EF (2010) Forest transitions, trade and the global displacement of land use. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, XXXX
Outline
• Landscape & watershed: linking kowledge with action
• Tree cover transitions: role for agricultural intensification?
effects: colours of water• Sentinel landscapes as research tools
Atmospheric concentrations of short- and longlived greenhouse gassesAt
mos
-ph
ere
Climate systems
An
thro
pog
en
ic
GH
G
em
issio
ns
Impacts of actual & predicted
climate change on human and ecosystems
Adaptation
Mitigation
Vulnerability
Human actions .
Human quality of life
Oth
er
pote
nti
al
eff
ect
s on c
lim
ate
syst
em
s
Exogenous variabiliy
Rainbow water, the missing colour
• Grey water: added focus on pollution, cleansing and re-use water shortage relates to ‘quality’
Rainbow wa-ter closes the hydrological cycle, adds the concept of terrestrial evapotranspi-ration as ‘recycling’
Rainbow =Recycled Atmospheric Inputs Now Benefitting our Water-supply
• Blue water: traditionally hydrology studies water flow in rivers, its use for irrigation, industrial & domestic uses water shortage & floods
• Green water: realized that water use in ‘upper watersheds’ is increased by forests & trees
Blue waterstreamflow
Rainfall triggering conditions
Precipi-tation
Rainbow waterAtmospheric transport
Soil & ground-water buffering
Gre
en w
ate
r ET
evap
otr
an
spir
ati
on
There are in-teresting but controversial ideas that fo-rests generate wind that trans-ports water vapour…
Ellison D, Futter MN, Bishop K, 2011.On the forest cover–water yield debate: from demand- to supply-side thinking. Global Change Biology, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02589.x
37%
% of rainfall derived from ‘short cycle’ terrestrial origins(recalculated from Basilovich et al.)
68%58% 30%
40%41% 46% 22%
42%
1) Mackenzie river basin, 2) Mississippi river basin, 3) Amazon river basin, 4) West Afri-ca, 5) Baltics, 6) Tibet, 7) Siberia, 8) GAME (GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment) and 9) Huaihe river
basin.
Approximately a third comes
from ‘local’ sources
van der Ent RJ, Savenije HHG, Schaefli B, Steele ‐Dunne SC, 2010. Origin and fate of atmospheric moisture over continents. Water Resources Research 46, W09525,
E/P
Pfrom Et/P
Why India and China should invest in draining the Sudd and letting the water evaporate in Egypt in stead… and why West
Africa should be opposed to it
Deforesting Myanmar
will reduce rainfall in
China
S. Africa policies regarding Euca-lyptus water use cannot be di-rectly transfer-red to E. Africa
Keys PW, van der Ent RJ, Gordon LJ, Hoff H, Nikoli R and Savenije HHG, 2012. Analyzing precipitationsheds to understand the vulnerability of rainfall dependent regions, Biogeosciences, 9, 733–746
Dryland agricultural areas where more than 50% of rainfall is derived from terrestrial recycling
Sahel
Outline• Landscape & watershed: linking kowledge with
action for sustainagility (antifragility sensu Taleb)• Balancing CGIAR SLO 1+2+3 versus SLO 4• Tree cover transitions: role for agricultural