Modelling for trade-offs analysis at regional and global sca Petr Havlík + >30 collaborators in and outside IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Kenya CGIAR Workshop: Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
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Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_20 Feb 2013_Keynote Petr Havlik
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Modelling for trade-offs analysisat regional and global scale
Petr Havlík + >30 collaborators in and outside IIASA
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Kenya
CGIAR Workshop: Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
2
LAND
NATURAL LAND INTENSIFICATION MANAGED LAND
Biodiversity
CO2 sink
Land sparing
Pollution
N2O emissions
Water use
Soil degradation
Food, feed, fiber, fuel
Farmers income
Trade-offs in the land use sectors
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
Outline
1. Model overview
2. Global case study – Sustainable intensification?a) Rigid system b) Flexible livestock systemsc) Land productivity
3. Regional case study – Development scenarios
4. Conclusion
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Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
1. Model overview
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Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
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Herrero, Havlík et al. forthcoming
Production systems parameterization
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
Downscaling FAO country level information and forest growth
functions estimated from yield tables
Source: Kindermann et al. (2008)
Forests – G4M
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Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
2a. Global case study: Rigid system – Trade-offs at their best
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Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
DO NOTHING scenario – Projected forest area
Tropical deforestation (2010-2050)
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
Diet Shift Bioenergy Plus Pro-Nature Pro-Nature Plus
Alternative futures scenarios
Zero Net Deforestation and ForestDegradation by 2020 (ZNDD)
REDD policy scenario
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
Diet Shift Bioenergy Plus Pro-Nature Pro-Nature Plus
Scenario definition
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
Diet Shift Bioenergy Plus Pro-Nature Pro-Nature Plus
Scenario definition
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
Diet Shift Bioenergy Plus Pro-Nature Pro-Nature Plus
Kapos et al. (2008)
Scenario definition
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
Total land cover change (2010-2050)Results
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
Agricultural commodity prices compared to DO NOTHING
Results
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
Agricultural input use compared to DO NOTHING
Results
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
2b. Global case study: Flexible livestock systems
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Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
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Systems Herds
REF0 Fixed Fixed
REF1 Flexible Flexible*
* in regions with specialized herds
2 reference scenarios
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
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LPS distribution for different animal types in 2030
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
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Price changes 2000-2030
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
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Annual average GHG emissions over 2020-2030
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
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Scenario ALL AGR ANM ENT LUC DEFLivestockEnteric fermentation CH4 X X X X Manure management CH4 X X XManure management N2O X X XManure grassland N2O X X XCroplandCrop fertilizer N2O X XRice CH4 X XLand-use changeDeforestation CO2 X X XOther LUC CO2 X X
Mitigation scenarios
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
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Total abatement calorie cost (TACC) curves for different policy options by 2030
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
2c. Global case study: Land productivity growth
(Havlík et al, 2013; Valin et al, forthcoming)
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Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
Scenarios
• Alternative crop yield scenarios– S0: No crop yield increase– S: -50% yield improvement
• Fixed demand on B reference: no rebound effect
– B: Baseline - linear historical trend– C: + 100% in developing regions
• Fixed demand on B reference no rebound effect
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
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Commodity price index 2030/2000
Results
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
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Land cover change 2000-2030
Results
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
ResultsAverage annual GHG emissions (2000-2030)
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
0 500 1000 1500 20000
20
40
60
80
100
120
GHG taxProductivity abatment levels
MtCO2-eq
US
D p
er
tCO
2-e
q
S0 S B C
R&D investment cost
Crop yield increase as a mitigation policy?
MACC_S0
Marginal Abatement Cost Curvewith S0 crop yields
versus
R&D investment necessary for S, B, C- calculated as in Burney at al. (2010)
Results
Crop yield growth can be a cost
efficient element of the mitigation
portfolio
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
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Scenario Crops Ruminants
TREND FAO historic trend 1980-2010 Bouwman et al. (2005) trend
SLOW 50% TREND growth rate 50% TREND growth rate
CONV Closing 50% EPIC yield gap Closing 50% efficiency gap
CONV-C Closing 50% EPIC yield gap TREND
CONV-L TREND Closing 50% efficiency gap
Pathway Crops RuminantsFertilizer Other input Non-feed cost
adjustment adjustment adjustmentConventional Yes Yes YesSust-Intens No Yes YesFree-Tech No No No
Management assumptions in developing countries
Productivity assumptions in developing countries
• Free demand potential rebound effects
What kind of intensification?
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
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Food security x GHG: Trade-offs & Complementarities
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
3. Regional case study: Development scenarios
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Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
Four storylines for Eastern Africa
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
Storylines quantification
Main drivers:
– GDP
– Crop yields and management systems
– Livestock yield and production systems
– Producer cost
– Land use change limitations
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
GDP per capita in EAF [USD]
2010 2020 2030 -
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
Industrious AntsHerd of ZebraLone LeopardsSleeping Lions
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
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Calorie consumption in EAF [kcal/cap/day] GHG emissions in EAF in 2030 [MtCO2eq/y]
Results
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
4. Conclusion
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Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
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Strengths
• Bio-economic model (“Integrated assessment”) - consistent coverage of economic and environmental parameters
• Land use model – solid relationship between production and land
• Bottom-up representation with detailed management systems description
• Multiscale approach – 10x10km – Region – World
• Global coverage – regional trade-offs (leakage)
• Multisectorial representation – trade-offs between agriculture and forestry
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
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Weaknesses
• Partial equilibrium model – no income feedbacks, no other sectors
• Single representative consumer at the region level – poor food security proxy
• Water resources – economic versus physical irrigation water availability
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
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Key discussion points / challenges
• Global CGIAR agricultural systems classification/parameterization database?
• Linking between models to bridge the scales in trade-offs analysis?
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
Havlík et al. Modelling for trade-offs analysisCGIAR Trade-offs Analysis, WUR Wageningen, February 19, 2013
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References
Havlík, P., Valin, H., Mosnier, A., Obersteiner, M., Baker, J. S., Herrero, M., Rufino, M. C. & Schmid, E. (2013). Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for Land Use Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 95 (2), 442—448.
Valin, H., Havlík, P., Mosnier, A., Herrero, M., Schmid E. and Obersteiner M. Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions: trade-offs or synergies between mitigation and food security? Environmental Research Letters, under review.
World Wildlife Fund (WWF) 2011. Living Forests Report. Chapter 1. http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/how_we_work/conservation/forests/publications/living_forests_report/