Why Wheat Matters - from the Green Revolution up to today

1. Why WHEAT matters From the Green Revolution up to today WHEAT FOR THE FUTURE Advancing wheat research for global food security 3 June 2015, EXPO Milan Hans-Joachim Braun CIMMYT

2. For a first approximation, wheat is the staple food of mankind and its history is that of humanity Economist, Dec 20, 2005

3. Pizza and Spaghetti

4. China

5. West Asia North Africa

6. Wheat Products

7. To a hungry person, God appears in the form of Bread Mahadma Gandhi

8. In the early 1960 , South Asia and China at brink of mass famine Farmers could not produce enough food Yields have improved little over centuries The Green Revolution

9. Dwarfing genes

10. The Green Revolution Mexican Semi Dwarf wheat and Rice varieties from Philippines introduced. New agronomy practices 5 10 times higher yield than farmers varieties Production grew faster than population The real price of staple foods decreased India and Pakistan doubled wheat and rice production from 1967 to 1976

11. Indian Wheat ProductionArea Saved Through Adoption of High-Yield Technology 100 60 40 20 0 1961 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Millionhectares Land Used Land Saved 80 Source: FAOSTAT, 2014 1961 2013 Production, 11 94 Million tonnes Av. Yield. t/ha 0.85 3.0 Population, Millions 452 1,200

12. Wheat helps feed the world Most widely cultivated cereal grain 20% of all calories and protein Main staple for ca 1.2 billion poor (< 2$ per day,) Rich in fibre and micronutrients including minerals, Vitamins (B), Folic Acid Average antioxidant activity exceeds most fruits and vegetables Wheat is a natural vehicle for providing nutrients to a growing population

13. Red dashed vertical lines correspond to beginning dates of food riots and protests associated with overall death toll reported in parentheses [2655]. http://necsi.edu/research/social/food_crises.pdf Source:Lagi,K.Z.Bertrand,Y.Bar-Yam,TheFoodCrisesandPolitical InstabilityinNorthAfricaandtheMiddleEast.(August10,2011) Food Prices Raise Governments Fall

14. Countries where wheat provides more than 1/3 of daily calories Source: FAO, 2010

15. 50% of all grain produced within this circle China and India biggest wheat producer

16. Myths about Wheat Wheat is the crop of the North a rich mans crop Wheat is harmful to your health Wheat makes you obese Modern wheat has nothing to do with the wheat our grandparents produced Wheat is a GMO - transgenic

17. + WHEAT - OBESITY Wheat consumption vs Obesity 0 50 100 150 300 250 200 Wheat Consumption Kg / Capita Size indicates % of adult population with obesity. Estamations based in OMS, USDA and OCDE and Canimot 34 3322 20 18 11 14 10 5 19 20 16 6 25

18. Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3 Importance of Wheat as calorie source (2005-07)

19. Importance of Wheat as Protein Source from Plants 1st 2nd 3rd Source: FAO 2012

20. Though the EU collectively produces the highest volume, China and India are the top wheat producing countries. Top Wheat Producing Countries and Regions (mlln tons) 8 9 10 13 14 16 20 23 27 30 38 62 95 121 136 Argentina Egypt Kazakhstan UK Iran Ukraine Turkey Pakistan Canada Australia Russia US India China EU-28 1 10 mlln Below 1 mlln 58 Italy 7 mlln

21. Converging challenges to food security In the next 50 years we will need to produce as much food as has been consumed over our entire human history. Megan Clark, CEO of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Australia

22. Yield Potential

23. Year 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Grainyield(tha -1 ) 0 2 4 6 8 R.Korea China Indonesia India Rice Year 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0 2 4 6 8 Year 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Wheat Maize China India Northwest Europe Brazil China USA-irrigated USA-rainfed Stagnating yields of the major cereal crops rice, wheat, and maize in a number of countries and regions that are worlds largest producers Source: Cassman, 2014, WFP Iowa

24. Photosynthetic Efficiency Best Photovoltaic Cells > 40% Photovoltaic Cells 10% Sugar Cane 9% Maize 4% Wheat 1%

25. Estimated contribution of crop protection (mechanical, biological and chemical) to wheat production for 2001 03. Modified after Oerke 2006. Without crop Protection 50% Due to crop Protection 22% Losses 28%

26. Agriculture and Water 1 wheat = 900 l 1 kg maize = 1 500 l 1 kg rice = 1 800 l 1 kg beef fed with irrig, crop 10 000 l

27. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Normal irrigation Laser levelling Raised beds Drip irrigation Sub-soil irrigation Source: Compiled by H.J. Braun form various sources Water (liter) needed to produce 1 kg wheat with various irrigation systems

28. Source: Nature Climate Change, 1793, 13 Jan 2013 + 60C + 4.0C + 2.0C Change in Spring Wheat Productivity by 2100 in 5 scenarios varying from 20C to 60C global average temperature increase 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year

29. January-April average min. temperature C 7.58.08.59.09.510.010.511.011.5 WheatyieldYaquiValley(Ton/Ha) 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 2010 2011 2006 2007 2002 2008 2000 2004 2005 2003 2001 2012 2009 2013 y= 11.55 - 0.65X r2 =0.75 Adapting to Climate Change: New Heat Tolerant Wheats Prove their Value in Farmers Fields in Mexico 10C increase = 700 kg lower yield Source: H.-J. Braun, CIMMYT

30. January-April average min. temperature C 7.58.08.59.09.510.010.511.011.5 WheatyieldYaquiValley(Ton/Ha) 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 2010 2011 2006 2007 2002 2008 2000 2004 2005 2003 2001 2012 2009 2013 y= 11.55 - 0.65X r2 =0.75 Adapting to Climate Change: Heat Tolerant Wheats prove their Value in Farmers Fields in Mexico 10C increase = 700 kg lower yield Source: H.-J. Braun, CIMMYT New heat tolerant variety

31. January-April average min. temperature C 7.58.08.59.09.510.010.511.011.5 WheatyieldYaquiValley(Ton/Ha) 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 2010 2011 2006 2007 2002 2008 2000 2004 2005 2003 2001 2012 2009 2013 y= 11.55 - 0.65X r2 =0.75 Adapting to Climate Change: Heat Tolerant Wheats prove their Value in Farmers Fields in Mexico 10C increase = 700 kg lower yield 2014 Source: H.-J. Braun, CIMMYT 2015

32. Micro-nutrient deficiency

33. 2 billion people in the developing world are iron deficient Women and children are the primary victims Micronutrient Deficiency Hidden Hunger 2 billion+ affected Photo: C. Hotz

34. Target Areas for Zinc dense Wheat Human Zinc Deficiency Moderate Not sufficient data available Low High

35. Conclusion 2012 - 2050: Food security will become an escalating concern Leaders must act You must act

36. gracias! tak dank u salamatmerci danke takk thank you kiitos grazie na-ekele unu obrigado dankie tack teekkr ederim asante sana merci shukran Ameseginalehu

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