Mahmoud El Solh Director General International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas Central & West Asia and North Africa: Where Wheat Improvement Matters Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security Wheat Science, prospects and Perspective CENEB-CIMMYT, Cd. Obregon, Mexico 27 March, 2014
72
Embed
Central & West Asia and North Africa: Where Wheat Improvement Matters
Presentation delivered by Dr. Mahmoud El Solh (Director General, ICARDA) at Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security. March 25 - 28, 2014, Ciudad Obregon, Mexico. http://www.borlaug100.org
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Mahmoud El Solh
Director General International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
Central & West Asia and North Africa:
Where Wheat Improvement Matters
Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security Wheat Science, prospects and Perspective
CENEB-CIMMYT, Cd. Obregon, Mexico
27 March, 2014
Outline 1. Why Wheat Matters in CWANA?
2. Main drivers of increased Wheat Productivity in the past;
3. Current challenges facing Wheat Production in CWANA;
4. The role of ICARDA in generating and promoting Wheat Technologies in collaboration with Partners;
5. Bridging the Yield Gap and the Impact of Improved Wheat Technologies in Selected Countries;
6. Partnerships, Future Emphasis/Looking Ahead.
Wheat is the staple food crop of strategic importance in the region;
The region is home to almost a billion people;
Wheat in CWANA covers about 54 million ha which is ~ 50% of the wheat production area in the developing world;
The highest wheat per capita consumption is in Morocco (220 kg per capita per year)
Lifting wheat subsidies led to social unrest and riots in Egypt, Morocco, Jordan and other countries;
Except for Kazakhstan, Syria (before 2011), and Turkey all CWANA countries are wheat importers;
Egypt is the largest wheat importer (imports up to 10 million tons)
CWANA
1. Why Wheat Matters in CWANA?
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Po
pu
lati
on
(1
00
0 M
)
Foo
d C
on
sum
pti
on
(M
t)
Year
Barley Maize Rice Wheat CWANA Population
CWANA Population & Consumption of Major Field Crops
Wheat = 37% of total food supply (calories) in MENA
Average annual per capita consumption:
• North Africa (Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia) = 174 kg
• Middle East = 158kg
• Total MENA = 166kg
• World average = 66kg
Currently, the region imports more than half its wheat needs, at an increasing cost
Wheat: the staple food
in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Yie
ld (
t/H
a)
Are
a (M
Ha)
P
rod
uct
ion
(M
t)
Year
Area Production Yield
CWANA, with average area of 54 million ha, covers 50% of the wheat production area in the developing world
CWANA Wheat Area, Production and Yield
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.7
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.5
1.6
1.7
2.4
2.4
2.7
3.1
5.7
8.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Ave
rage
ye
ar im
po
rts
(Mt)
Average net wheat imports (million tons) (2005-2011)
Crop Prospects and Food Situation, April 2008 FAO.
Impact of food price increases on balance trade
In CWANA countries
Impact of the Food Crisis Most CWANA countries are moving from food self reliance to self sufficiency
Adoption of input responsive semi-dwarf widely adapted wheat varieties (Dr Norman Borlaug varieties);
Adoption and application of inputs (fertilizer, irrigation water, herbicides, etc.);
International Wheat Improvement Network and Capacity Development (CIMMYT and ICARDA);
Increase in international prices of wheat;
Favorable policy environment and government subsidies;
And to a lesser extent change in wheat area;
2. Main Drivers of Increased Wheat Yield in the Past
Water scarcity and more frequent
drought;
Soil degradation;
Reduced supply and increasing
cost of inputs e.g. fertilizers, fuel
etc.;
Climate Change & Global warming;
Emerging pests and diseases;
Increasing demand for energy
(biofuel);
Increasing world population:
8 billion in 2030 ; 9.2 billion in 2050
Tends in Wheat Production Area and Yield in the World & CWANA, 1961-2010
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
19
61
19
66
19
71
19
76
19
81
19
86
19
91
19
96
20
01
20
06
yiel
d (
t/h
a)
Are
a (M
ill h
a)
CWANA Area (ha) World Area (ha)
CWANA Yield (t/ha) World Yield (t/ha)
3. Current challenges for increasing wheat production
in CWANA
Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099, scenario A1b, average of 21 GCMs (compiled by GIS Unit ICARDA, based on partial maps in Christensen et al., 2007)
Relative change of mean annual precipitation
1980/1999 to 2080/2099
Abiotic stresses
• Drought
• Heat
• Cold
• Salinity
• Pre-harvest loses including sprouting
• Lodging
Biotic stresses • Yellow rust
• Stem rust
• Leaf rust
• Fusarium
• Septoria
• Tan spot
• Common bunt
• Root rots
• Hessian Fly
• Russian Wheat Aphid
• Sunn Pest
• Weeds
Major Production constraints in CWANA Countries
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
10000000
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
Yie
ld (
t/h
a)
Are
a (
ha)
& p
rod
uct
ion
( t
on
s
Year
Production
Area
Yield
Effect of drought on wheat production in Morocco
Production loss of cultivar Achtar : 100,000 ton Monetary: $ 30 m US dollars
Estimated Yield loss in Gereck : 40% Monetary loss : > $52 m US dollars Syria: Cham 8, Cham 6 : 30-80 % yield loss Ethiopia : Attila (Kubsa): 40-70% yield loss
Recurrence of Stripe/Yellow Rust in CWANA
4. The role of ICARDA in generating and promoting
Wheat Technologies in collaboration with Partners
Conservation and use of genetic diversity of crops and wild relatives of importance to dry areas;
Crop genetic improvement: through plant breeding/biotechnology and improved crop management of winter cereals, food legumes and forage crops;
Plant protection through resistance/tolerance to biotic stresses and IPM practices;
Enhancing water productivity and integrated sustainable water management; Diversification and sustainable intensification of production systems;
Resilience of production systems in marginal lands of dry areas;
Conservation agriculture: conservations of soil moisture and reducing cost of production and energy use;
Social, economic and policy research and institutional innovations and support;
Capacity development & networking.
36 Years of Experience in Basic and Applied Research
in Non-Tropical Dry Areas
• High yield potential and broad adaptation;
• Durable resistance/tolerance to major diseases and insect pests;
• Tolerance to Drought, heat, cold and salinity;
• Grain quality;
• Capacity building of NARS and Networking
ICARDA Wheat Genetic Improvement Program
Objectives
Taxon Number of accessions
Wheat 37,816
Barley 28,999
Wild Cereals/Wheat wild relatives 8242
Faba bean 12,585
Lentil 10,889
Chickpea 14,544
Wild Lens and Cicer 929
Forage legumes 31,719
Forage and range species 7611
Total 153,334
ICARDA Gene Bank Holdings
• Classification and targeting major environments;
• Shuttle breeding;
• Biotechnological Tools including Marker assisted selection;
• Mining desirable genes and the use of wide crosses involving wild relatives (Synthetics) for desirable traits;
• Screening for durable resistance/tolerance to diseases and insect pests in hot spots;
• Multi-location testing;
Approaches to increase wheat breeding efficiency
Syria Tel Hadya*
Lebanon Terbol
Morocco Merchouch
Egypt Sids Ethiopia
Kulumsa
Turkey Ankara Izmir
Sudan Wad-
Medani
ICARDA’s Key Locations for Wheat Shuttle Breeding Terbol (Lebanon): Adaptation, yield potential, seed multiplication, off-season rust, international nurseries. Merchouch (Morocco): Rainfed wheat, drought tolerance, insect resistance, virology. Kulumsa (Ethiopia): Stem Rust(Ug99), Stripe Rust, Fusarium, Septoria. Sids (Egypt): High input irrigated wheat, yield potential, earliness. Wad-Medani (Sudan): Heat tolerance, earliness (short season wheat). Ankara (Turkey): International Winter Wheat Program (IWWP). Izmir (Turkey): Wheat rusts with emphasis on stripe/yellow rust, international Trap Rusts Nurseries.
* Activities currently suspended in Tel Hadya, Syria
FIGS - Focused Identification of Germplasm Strategy Link environmental data to collection sites
Adapted from diagram by
D T F Endresen (NGB)
Choose accessions from that
environments that would
impose a selection pressure
for a given trait:
e.g.: for heat tolerance, select
material from environments
where there is a high
selection pressure
Gene Mining Using FIGS
Sunn pest – first time in bread wheat
RWA resistance – new genes inditified
Hessian fly - resistance to US bio-type
Powdery mildew – 2 new functional genes
Salinity – 20% of salinity set showed resistance compared to
only 3% of core set
Drought – FIGS accessions performed better than core set
FIGS Results: Success Verified & Impact
About 732 wheat landraces and wild
relatives have been identified through
FIGs approach and were screened for
resistance to Stripe Rust and
Septoria for two years (2011-2012).
As shown in this Figure: 9 genotypes
of T. monococcum; 12 genotypes of T.
timopheevii; 94 genotypes of T.
turgidum and 15 genotypes of T.
aestivum have been identified with
high level of resistance to both Stripe
Rust and Septoria diseases.
These genotypes are being used in the
pre-breeding program for gene
pyramiding.
Triticum aestivum ,
15
Triticum timophee
vii , 12
Triticum turgidum,
94
Triticum monococcum 9
Wheat accessions with high of combined resistance
to Stripe Rust and Septoria, 2011-2012.
Y irr; Y RF; YR; * < 0.01
Source: Tadesse, 2013
Association mapping for Yield Potential, Drought
Tolerance and Stripe Rust Resistnce
Synthetics have exponentially increased genetic diversity in wheat
After introducing a novel DD genome (Ae. tauschii), now work starting on using novel AABB genome (T. dicoccoides and T. dicoccum) in new synthetics.
Contribution of Synthetic Wheat
(Syria) (Syria) (Lebanon)
Source: Ogbonnaya et al. 2010
Grain Yield of Synthetic Bread Wheat Genotypes
against recurrent parent , Cham 6.
Parent Variety Yield t/ha % recurrent
parent
Cham 6*2/SW2 1.6 147
Cham 6*2/SW2 1.5 138
Cham-6 1.10 100
Attila-7 1.3 -
Yield of “synthetic derivatives” compared to parents under drought stress. (Tel Hadya 2008 -- 211 mm)
Wheat crossed with wild relatives: Synthetic wheat, tolerance to excessive drought
T. boeoticum
T. urartu
T. dicoccoides
yellow rust resistance
leaf rust resistance
earliness
high productive tillering
spike productivity
plant productivity
plant height
drought tolerance
Sunn pest resistance
Russian wheat aphid resistance
Septoria tritici resistance
Ae. speltoides
probably different from Yr15
New sources for desirable traits for wheat
through wide crosses with wild relatives
Durable Resistance/Tolerance to Insect Pests & Diseases and Integrated Pest Management (IPM)
Hessian Fly
Resistant Variety
Hessian fly causes economic damage in
North Africa
Resistant lines
Resistance/Tolerance to Hessian Fly in Wheat
Effects > 15 million ha in West
and Central Asia & Eastern
Europe;
Sunn pest injects enzyme that
decomposes grain gluten, vital
for bread baking;
If 2-3% of a grain lot is infested,
entire wheat lot is ruined with
respect to baking quality
IPM: Sunn Pest in wheat
• Hand collection of Sunn pest in overwintering sites
• Use of insect-killing fungi in overwintering sites
• Enhancement and conservation of egg parasitoids/predators
• Genetic resistance at early vegetative stage
Sunn Pest IPM Options in wheat
0
50
100
150
200
250
2001 2002 2003
Years
127
193
231
300 277
2004
Spra
yed a
reas (
10
00
ha
)
282
2005
232
2006
185
117
2007 2008 2009
87
Evolution of area sprayed against Sunn Pest in Syria
Heavy yellow
rust infestation
wheat in West
Asia in 2010
Black stem rust
(Ug 99)
infestation in
Ethiopia &
Kenya
Surveillance & Resistance to Rust Diseases
ICARDA
Distribution of Regional Rust Trap Nurseries in 80 locations in 32 countries, 2009/10
Released varieties resistances
to black stem and yellow rust
in Ethiopia
Resistances to new races of
yellow rust in West Asia
in 2010
Resistance to Rust Diseases in Wheat
ICARDA implemented regional and bilateral projects with focus to promote the development and dissemination of wheat varieties resistant to Stripe and Black Stem (Ug99) Rusts: • USAID Famine Fund (Egypt, Ethiopia,
Pakistan) • Three bilateral projects in Ethiopia
(USAID), Iraq (USAID) and Pakistan (USDA)
Fast track testing and
release
Accelerated seed
multiplication
Popularization /demonstration
Scaling-out of technologies
Strengthening NARS Capacity
Farmers
Fast Track Variety Release and Accelerated Seed Multiplication
and Delivery of Rust Resistant Varieties
1. Wheat rust resistant varieties released by Egypt (2), Ethiopia (8)
and Pakistan (9)
2. Amount of certified seed of rust resistant varieties produced by NARS (in collaboration with CIMMYT and ICARDA) and distributed;
• Egypt: 15,725 MT sufficient to plant 9% of wheat area, 2011/12; • Ethiopia: 27,000 MT sufficient to plant 10% wheat area, 2012/13; • Pakistan: 42,750 MT sufficient to plant 5% of wheat area,
2011/12
3. Popularization and promotion of rust resistant varieties reaching close to 5,000 farmers every year
4. Farmer-based seed production in rainfed areas of Pakistan (6 districts planted 17.22 ha of 7 varieties and produced 56.18 MT at an average profit of $348/ha)
USAID Famine Fund (2009-12): Egypt, Ethiopia and Pakistan
Both formal and informal approaches used in accelerated seed production and distribution of rust resistant varieties developed by NARS in collaboration both CIMMYT and ICARDA with public-private partnership: • NARS (federal and regional) produced about 6,021 MT seed of rust resistant
wheat varieties and successfully distributed for different purposes;
• About 815 MT seed distributed directly to farmers which was planted on 5,660 ha producing 18,718 MT potentially sufficient to plant 127,377 ha;
• About 19,877 farmers (7.3% women) reached benefitting 119,262 HH members through on-farm seed production, technology scaling-out and emergency seed relief;
• Farmer seed associations and public and private sector produced a combined 5526 MT seed for further seed multiplication;
• Public and private sector distributed a combined 85,943 MT seed of rust
resistant varieties sufficient to plant 572,956 ha of wheat area in 2012/13.
Rapid Deployment of Rust Resistant Varieties (2011/12-): Ethiopia
USAID Seed Production Project:
Field Inspection
USAID Seed Production Project: Farmers’ Day
Wheat Productivity Enhancement Program (2011-): Pakistan
• 2600 MT seed of promising lines/new varieties produced under pre- and post release seed multiplication (148 MT of exclusively Ug99 resistant lines/varieties) and provided to public and/or private seed companies;
• 284 MT seed was produced with farmers in dryland areas of Punjab and KPK with average net returns from seed activities of $337/ha;
• 494 MT seed produced from popularization and demonstration of new rust resistant (164.8 MT exclusively Ug99 resistant varieties) with net return of $227/ha.
HSAD strengthening wheat seed system (2013-14): Iraq
• A total of 5904 MT seed of high yielding and stress tolerant wheat varieties were multiplied by NARS and large-scale seed producers:
• 1.31 MT seed of pre-release (11 promising lines) ; • 2200 MT breeder and foundation seed (13 varieties) produced by
NARS with resistance to yellow rust; • 3703 MT registered and certified seed (6 varieties) produced by
5. Bridging the Yield Gap and Impact of Improved Wheat Technologies
Actual farm yields of wheat in the CWANA region are far below their potential.
Evidence shows that productivity can be increased substantially;
If production of wheat is to exceed population growth rates, yields must increase further.
Limited scope for expansion in area
Future increases in production must come from sustainable intensification of wheat-based production system.
Wheat Productivity in CWANA Region
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Algeria Egypt Ethiopia Morocco Syria Turkey
Co
un
try
yie
ld (
t h
a-1)
Real (Average 2007/2011; FAOSTAT) Experimental
6. Wheat Yield Gap Analysis in Selected Countries
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
ExperimentalStation Yield
Potential FarmYield
Actual FarmYield
Yield Gap II
Yield Gap I Biological constraints • Variety • Water • Weeds • Diseases and insect pests • Soil Fertility • Soil Problems e.g. salinity
Socioeconomic constraints • Input availability • Costs and returns • Credit • Prices • Tradition and altitudes • Knowledge • Input availability • Institutions and Policies
Ton
s/h
a
Example, Wheat in Tunisia
Bridging the Yield Gap in Wheat
Progressive Farmers Yield
Traditional Farmers Yield
Experimental Station Yield
Morocco Syria
(rainfed) Gap Analysis Settat-Berrechid
(rainfed)
Tadla
(irrigated)
Gap 1 (kg/ha) 1028 2115 1655
Gap 2 (kg/ha) 2228 3825 2520
Gap 1 (%) 88% 45% 82%
Gap 2 (%) 192% 82% 125%
Gap 1 = difference between average farmers’ yield and research
station/on-farm demonstration yield
Gap 2 = difference between average farmers’ yield and simulated
potential yield
Wheat yield gap analysis: Morocco and Syria
Gaps between national average yields and progressive farmers yields
Wheat Yield Gap in Syria
Formerly a wheat importer, the country (before the unfortunate developments that started in 2011) was self-sufficient, and even an exporter of wheat (1-2 million tons) in reasonable good rainy seasons.
Between 1991 and 2004 wheat production rose from 2.1 million to 4.5 million tons, with a combination of new high-yielding varieties (1/3), supplemental irrigation technology (1/3) and more inputs (1/3) with supportive government policies.
Impact of Bridging the Yield Gap in Syria
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Pro
du
cti
on
(m
illio
n t
on
s)
Wh
eat
are
a (
mil
lio
n h
a)
Pre
cip
itati
on
( 1
00 m
m)
Area Needed Precipitation
Actual Area Linear (Area Trend)
Actual Production Linear (Production Trend)
.
Impact of improved wheat technologies in Syria
Socio-economic & policy,
and institutional support
Sustainable
Natural resource
management and
inputs
Crop & livestock
genetic improvement
Integration at field
and farmers levels
The integrated approach involving the three pillars
of sustainable agricultural intensification
I R I I R I R I
Participating Farmers
8.1 2.4 4.9 3.7 2.6 6.3 2.7 6.0
Non Participating Farmers
6.3 1.9 4.4 2.4 2.2 5.6 2.1 4.6
Ave. increase (%) 22 21 11 58 20 13 23 30
Max yield 9.1 3.2 6.5 5.6 4.2 8.2 3.7 8.8
Average Yield Increase= 25 %
Maximum Yield Increase= 75 %
Egypt Yemen Morocco Sudan Syria Tunisia
Impact of Bridging Yield Gap in Wheat in Selected
Countries under Rainfed (R) and Irrigated Systems
Food Security Project: 2011/2012
Raised-bed Planting
Furrows irrigation Flat bed irrigation Raised bed irrigation
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Yield (t/ha) Waterconsumption(000m3/ha)
WUE(kg/m3)
Raised bedFlat surface
Egypt Advantage of raised bed planting
Average of 2011 and 2012
30 % increase in grain yield
25 % saving in irrigation water
72 % increase in WUE
Average wheat productivity in 2009/2010 and 2012-2013 in Al-Sharkia Governorate:
It was 6.2 t/ha in 2010 and reached 7.2 t/ha in 2013;
It was less than the national mean by 7% in 2010 and higher by 4% in 2013;
National Productivity was 6.5 t/ha in 2010 and it reached 6.7 t/ha in 2013.
Project on "Enhancing Food Security in Arab Countries", March 2014
Impact of Large Scale On-Farm Demonstration in Egypt
Egypt:
Based on the results obtained in Al-Sharkia Governorate, National Campaign for improvement of wheat followed the Al-Sharkia approach for the dissemination of technologies: more than 1000 demonstration fields on improved wheat production technologies were planted during 2011-2012 and 2012 -2013 seasons in 22 Governorates in addition to the Governorate of Al-Sharkia which was used a pilot project site in Egypt. This expansion effort was supported by national funds amounting to 8.7 million EGP (about 1.300,000USD) in 3 years.
Tunisia:
The approach is being replicated in other wheat producing provinces based on the efficient extension methodology developed by the project in the country.
Spillover of Food Security Project Model
Impact of Heat-Tolerant Wheat in Sudan
All the work done by ICARDA in wheat is aligned under the Wheat CRP (CRP3.1) led by CIMMYT and in collaboration with CIMMYT and National Agricultural Research Systems;
Advanced Research Institutes;
IFAD, FAO and Other UN Organizations; Civil society organizations including NGOs;
Private Sector;
Donors.
Partnerships and Institutional Linkages 7. Partnerships and Collaborators
Establish/strengthen multi-disciplinary regional & international cooperation & networking through the Wheat CRP;
Strengthen the consortium on hybrid wheat and innovative research to enhance yield potential including C4 wheat, N-fixing wheat;
Strengthen the use of biotechnological tools including Genomic Selection (GS) approaches;
Sustainable intensification of wheat based systems;
Strengthen and promote IPM options;
Promote further Conservative Agriculture in dryland systems;
Enhancing water use efficiency through deficit and supplemental irrigation and modernization of irrigation systems;
Improve access to improved seeds through effective seed production & delivery systems (formal & informer; public and private);
Capacity development of NARS partners & Networking.
7. Future Emphasis/Looking Ahead
ICARDA Site identification team, 1975: Dr Norman Borlaug, Official
from Syrian Ministry of Agriculture, Dr Bob Havner, Dr Jit Srivastiva and Mr Faek Bahady