What will be the impact of water scarcity on food security?

What will be the impact of water scarcity on food security?

COLIN CHARTRES

International Water Management Institute

CONTENTS

• A history lesson• Reasons for increasing water scarcity• Adaptive responses• Policy responses• A call to action

Water for Food – 1 liter per calorie

Liters of Water

Daily Drinking Water 2 – 5 Liters of Water

Daily Household Use 20 – 500 Liters of Water

1kg of Grain 500 to 2,000 Liters of Evapotranspiration (ET)

Livestock products (meat, milk)

5,000 to 15,000 Liters of ET

2.5b more mouths means finding another 2500 - 5000 cubic km of water!

A Middle Eastern History Lesson (with acknowledgements to Coucier et al., 2005)

1950 Mid 1970s

LJRB (cont.)

2000s Mid 2020s

LJRV - history

In 60 years:• 10,000 – 46,000 ha of irrigation• All surface water committed• Groundwater being severely mined• Flows into Dead Sea reduced by c.80%The question is have the development benefits

outweighed the environmental costs?There has been some very dubious use of water

for poorly returning agriculture.

An Indian History Lesson

The Indian Groundwater Story

Transformation of Indian irrigation net area (million ha) by irrigation source (after Shah, 2009)

1800 1850 1885-86 1938-39 1970-711999- 2000

Government canals <1 ~1 2.8 9.8 24.2 31.2

Wells 2.0 2.6 3.5 5.3 13.9 53.6

Other sources 4.0 4.4 3.0 6.4 6.8 6.7

All sources 6 7 9.3 21.5 44.9 91.5Irrigation area as % of area sown 10 10.3 12.4 25 31.4 53.5

India’s total available water resources are 1086 km3

Drivers Unit 2000 i

BaUScenario

projections ii

NCIWRDhigh demand

Scenario iiSeckleret al.ii

Rosegrantet al ii

2025 2050 2025 2050 2025 2025Population Million 1,007 1,389 1,583 1,383 1,581 1,273 1,352

- % urban population % 28 37 51 45 61 43 43

Total calorie supply/person/day Kcal 2,495 2,775 3,000 - - 2,812 -

Total grain demand/person/year Kg 200 210 238 231 312 215 215

Gross irrigated area Mha 76 105 117 98 146 90 76

Total grain availability/person/year Kg 208 213 240 242 312 216 206

Net irrigation requirement Km3 245 313 346 359iv 536iv 323 332

Domestic water demand/person m3/day 33 45 64 45 70 31 31

Industrial water demand/person m3/day 42 66 102 48 51 55

Total water demand Km3 680 833 900 773 1,069 811 822

A Pending Crisis for India

• India is rapidly running low on water resources• Seckler et al. (1999) warned that a quarter of India’s food

harvest is at risk if the country fails to manage it groundwater resources properly.

• The transformation of its irrigation system from surface to groundwater has confounded good planning

• Shah describes the current groundwater irrigation set up as “atomistic” and anarchic

• Government control and regulation is extremely limited• Many aquifers are already over exploited• A National River Linking Program has been proposed,

but will be expensive and environmentally contentious

An Australian History Lesson

15% of 15% of AustraliaAustralia

Over 2 million Over 2 million peoplepeople

Ratio of high to low flow in Murray is >15:1 cf 1.9:1 for the Rhine

The Murray-Darling Basin

• The Murray-Darling Basin has a track record of integrated water resources management, but overallocation was not prevented.

• Regional climate variability is a major issue. Connell (2007) suggests that

“……a similar struggle between biophysical realities and human ambition is underway in the Murray Darling Basin where the process of landscape and stream modification has proceeded apace in recent decades largely oblivious of the need for caution or the possibility of threshold changes to its ecological systems.”

Climate variability in the MDB

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Extreme floodsExtreme floods

Extreme droughtExtreme drought

Irrigation growth in the Murray-Darling Basin

MDB

• By 1980s there was serious concern about land degradation and river salinity

• Toxic algal blooms in the Darling River in the summer of 1991-92

• 1995: a “cap” on diversions agreed• By turn of the century river rarely flowing into the ocean

and the basin “closed”• The governance mechanism (MDBC) which served well

for about 80 years could not cope with issues because of state based partisan responses and thus the Federal Government took over the basin management (MDBA)

• 2004 onwards; very significant investment in improving irrigation efficiency and buying back water for the environment

What do these lessons tell us?

Open Basins Closed BasinsExploiting water resources Managing Demand

New allocations Reallocating water

Who is included and excluded Safeguarding right to water

Developing groundwater Regulating groundwater

Informal, formal institutions Informal & Formal institutions

Within system conflicts Cross sectoral conflicts

Demand for water is having profound impacts on our river systems and requires new systems of governance that deal with issues arising in closed basins compared with those that operated previously

A WATER CRISIS?

• Food production is dependent on water • There is compelling evidence that water

will be the number one constraint on increasing food production in much of the developing world

• Much of the world is becoming water scarce

WE ALREADY INHABIT A WATER SCARCE WORLD

1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity

Most hungry and poor people live where water challenges pose a constraint to food production

Hunger Goal Indicator: Prevalence of undernourished in developing countries, percentage 2001/2002 (UNstat, 2005)

>35%

20-35%

However the 2008 food crisis demonstrated that food security depends on a range of factors?

• Income growth and dietary change, climate change, high energy prices, globalization and urbanization are transforming food consumption, production and markets (von Braun (2008)

• Slow growing supply, low stocks and supply shocks at a time of surging demand for feed, food and fuel have lead to drastic price increases

• Biofuel production has further impacted the situation and disproportionately affects the poor through price level and volatility effects

SUB-SAHARAN ECONOMIES ARE STRONGLY DEPENDENTON WATER AVAILABILITY

e.g. Rainfall and GDP growth in Ethiopia

Impact of rainfall variability on GDP and Agricultural GDP growth

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

year

%

-30-25-20

-15-10-50510

152025

rainfall variabilityGDP growthAg GDP growth

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Years

Nat

iona

l rai

nfal

l ind

ex: V

aria

tion

from

tren

d (m

m)

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Tota

l cer

eal p

rodu

ctio

n - V

aria

tion

from

tren

d ('0

00 to

ns)

National rainfall indexCereal production

Burkina Faso: Relation between rainfall and cereal production

A key question is whether we have enough water resources to grow enough food to meet future demand for food, feed and biofuels?

The Comprehensive Assessment answered

No, unless ….We change the way we think and act on

water issues.

KEY QUESTION

Demand continues to rise

We have seen that several basins are already using close to their utilizable water resources yet pressure

for more food and thus water continues to mount

What are the driving forces behind water scarcity?

• Growing population (6.7 billion now to 9.0 billion by 2050)

• Dietary change

• Urbanization

• Biofuel production

• Need for environmental water

• Climate change

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

10 100 1000 10000 100000

GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)

mea

t con

sum

ptio

n (k

g/ca

p/yr

) Meat China

India

0

2 0

4 0

6 0

8 0

1 0 0

1 2 0

1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

G D P p e r c a p ita (2 0 0 0 c o n s ta n t d o lla r s p e r ye a r )

milk

con

sum

ptio

n

(kg/

cap/

yr)

Milk China

India USA

USA

Consumption and income 1961-2000

BIOFUELS

irrigated

Million ha

Harvested area

irrigated

rain fed

rain fed

biofuels2003

2030

400 800 1200 1600

2000 4000 6000 8000

2003

2030

biofuelsirrigation

irrigation

directly from rain

directly from rain

Crop water consumption

km3

Water requirements for biofuel production, but a word of caution …..

liters of ET Liters of Irrigation water

China 3800 2500

India 4100 3500

US 1750 300

Brazil 2250 200

0100200300400500600700800900

100019

11

1917

1923

1929

1935

1941 1947

1953

1959

1965

1971

1977

1983

1989

1995

2001

2004

Tot

al a

nnua

l inf

low

(GL

)

Annual inflow

1911–1974 (338 GL) 1975–1996 (177 GL) 1997–2004 (115 GL)

Source: WA Water Corporation.

CLIMATE CHANGE: a big uncertainty

INFLOWS INTO PERTH’s STORAGES

Climate Change issues – Ovens Valley, Victoria Australia

For recent climate and current development

• Last 10 years have seen a 11% and 26% reduction in rainfall and runoff.

• Translation of this into a developing country scenario could portend catastrophy

Temperature

Sectoral water consumption is increasing due to increased demand

Demand will double in the next 40 years

A CALL TO ACTION - WHAT CAN WE DO?

Reservoir Storage per Capita (m3/cap), 2003

1,104 1,277

5,961

38687

2,486

3,386

4,717

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Ethiopia

South

Africa

Mexico

Tha

iland

China

Brazil

Austra

lia

North Ameri

ca

Water storage improves water and food security

“Irrigation” has dominated public investment in agriculture in Asia.

Very little water storage has been built in Africa.

Irrigated area is only 7% of arable land (3.7% in SSA).

Source: World Bank

RETHINK STORAGE

• Renewed interest in storage infrastructure for irrigation particularly in sub-Saharan Africa

• Explore wide range of options: large scale reservoirs, small village ponds, groundwater, water harvesting (i.e. soil moisture storage), virtual storage (food)

• Diversity of storage options within a basin

• Storage creation processes determine who benefits

• New hydropower schemes and their impacts will be inevitable

REVITALIZE IRRIGATION

Irrigated Area

Food price index

World Bank lending for irrigation

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

01960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

320

280

240

200

160

120

80

40

0

Living Planet Index Freshwater Species

How to avoid?

?

Increasing Water Productivity

Figure 4: Standardised Gross Value of Production per unit water consumed by ETcrop

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

US

dolla

r per

m3

* surface water and pub lic wells ** private wells

Water losses

25% 25% conveyance conveyance loss in Riverloss in River

60% on farm 60% on farm loss made up loss made up of:of:

•• 24% water 24% water management management loss (dams, loss (dams, evaporation)evaporation)

•• 36% by plants 36% by plants (14% loss to soil (14% loss to soil and 22% direct and 22% direct plant use)plant use)

15% channel 15% channel distribution distribution lossloss

Gains in productivity have to be made in the rainfed sector as well

Can we use small scale supplementary irrigation to “insure” yields and increase productivity?

Public Health

FarmerLaborer

Consumer

Wastewater irrigation

Soil

Fodder

Ground water

Turn waste water into a valuable resource

LivestockMilk(Meat)

Rice Vegetables

Short term and Long term health impacts

REFORM WATER GOVERNANCE

• By demonstrating that evidence based policy and management works best

• By providing options for policies and institutional reform• By proactive policy development that encourages trade

in virtual water• By improved determination of water rights• By better valuation and pricing of water that protects the

rights of the poor• By improved management systems that are equitable

and gender friendly

Do we have the right incentives in place?

• There are major losses between storages and plant growth in irrigation systems

• There are many ways in which these losses can be reduced

• At the system level, government can recoup water by reducing leakages (but lost water often goes into groundwater and is subsequently used)

• At the farm level unless water is well regulated efficiency gains are often used to extend the area irrigated

• This may help food production, but it often does not lead to water going to the highest value users

The role of water footprinting

• Useful tool for understanding the impact of agriculture, urban areas or industry on the water resource base

• Needs to be coupled with active responses including productivity improvement, demand management, change in personal water consuming habits

• It may help industry make choices on how to organize supply chains that have the least environmental impact

• Ideally, footprinting information meeds to lead to policy responses that recognize the differential value of water from different sources (e.g maize grown in rainfed areas is more environmentally appropriate than maize irrigated from non-sutainable groundwater)

Changing the way we look at water

• We need to move to governance systems where water rights are defined, water can thus be valued/priced and trading allowed

• Similarly water allocations to users need to be established, regulated and policed to maintain use of surface and groundwater at sustainable levels

• Government could then buy back water for environmental uses, and urban and industrial users can buy water from agriculture

• This will provide financial incentives for all to use water wisely and to strive for productivity gains.

• Of course, the poor need their water rights defined and basic needs for drinking, washing etc would be separately identified

Trading Water

From this .... From this .... To this To this ……..

Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA

IF WE CAN CHANGE THE WAY WE DO BUSINESS WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH WATER

Today

CA Scenario

Practices like today

CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade

CONCLUSIONS

• No doubt that we have a water crisis• Given current projections of food and water

demand we can possibly avert future food crises• Ensuring availability of water for agriculture is

vital, but requires major productivity increases and underpinning water reform

• The impacts of climate change are still uncertain, but investment in adaptation to CC will also be relevant to the impacts of the other drivers of water scarcity