Welcomes you to the 2010 NC-CCIM Triad Commercial Real Estate Market Forecast
Dec 18, 2015
Vital Statistics• Headquartered in Charlotte, North
Carolina• Subsidiary of BB&T• One of the nation’s largest
commercial mortgage bankers• Servicing portfolio of $24.5 billion• 26 production offices in 16 states
plus the District of Columbia
Grandbridge Real Estate Capital
SERVICESSERVICES• Permanent and Interim Loan
Placements»Fixed Rate or Floating Rate
• Acquisition/Bridge Financing• Mezzanine Loans• Preferred Equity• Developmental and JV Equity• Note Purchase Financing
Grandbridge Real Estate Capital
Grandbridge Real Estate Capital• Freddie Mac Seller/Servicer
• Fannie Mae DUS Lender• MAP and Lean Approved HUD
Lender• Insurance Company Correspondent• BB&T Real Estate Funding –
proprietary bridge lending platform
• Access CMBS and “non-traditional” lenders
Grandbridge Real Estate Capital
•Charlotte Production»6 People»2 CCIM’s»$2.4 Billion 2000 – 2009 in 383 deals
What Happened?
• Capital adequacy questioned
• Liquidity evaporated• True asset value
incalculable• Transactions stalled
»Inability»Unwillingness
What Happened?
• 2007 - CMBS Issuance = $230 Billion
• 2008 - CMBS Issuance= $14 Billion
• 2009 – CMBS Issuance= nil
• 2010 – CMBS Issuance= re-hiring, limited lending, priming
the pump
What Happened?
• 2007 – Insurance Company Commitments= $42.7 Billion
• 2008 – Insurance Company Commitments= $24 Billion
• 2009 – Insurance Company Commitments= $16 Billion
• 2010 – Insurance Company Commitments (Expected)
= $32 – 36 Billion
Lender Types Active Today•Insurance companies
•Freddie Mac; Fannie Mae; FHA/HUD
•Bridge lenders•Mezzanine lenders•Preferred equity providers•Banks•CMBS Lenders•Non-traditional lenders
Loan Types Available Today• Immediate funding interim and
permanent loans»Acquisition, refinance»Fixed or variable rate»Bullet or self-amortizing»3 to 20 year terms (30-35 for multifamily)
»Amortization 15-25 years with some 30- year schedules and limited interest-only
Loan Types Available Today (cont’d)
•Forward commitments are tough (3+ months)
•Credit tenant lease (CTL)•Acquisition / bridge loans•Mezzanine and preferred equity•Note acquisition financing
Loan Characteristics• Tighter underwriting
•Submarket vacancy or actual•Above-market rents may be adjusted
downward•Higher cap rates•Lower LTV, although some recovery
• Collections, debt coverage and debt yield are king
•1.20 - 1.25x DCR•11% debt yield
Loan Characteristics
•Borrower is key•Primary and secondary markets•Fundamentals must all be in
place•Amortization is critical•Recourse is back in some
instances
Rate Comparison
• Present day10 year Treasury = 3.76% (as of 3/12/10)
Multifamily Spread = 190 - 220 basis points
Coupon = 5.65 - 5.95%
Commercial Spread = 225 - 325 basis points (+/-)
Coupon = 6 - 7%
Conclusions
• LT debt loosening in 2010• Uncertain regulatory environment• Banks may apply pressure or
bifurcate loans• Borrowers may be forced to
choose asset capitalization• Equity requirements greater and
new construction will be slow
Panel Discussion
Rich – What’s up with the GSE’s? Are Freddie and Fannie going to be around in the future, and how has your conservatorship with FHFA affected how you do business?
Panel Discussion
Rich – What is your near term view of the multifamily sector and what is your focus for 2010 and 2011?
Panel Discussion
Don – Does Lincoln have an appetite today for commercial real estate loans and, if so, why?
Panel Discussion
How are you underwriting loans today? What factors are the most important to you? What are the hot buttons? How has this changed over the past 12-18 months? Don? Rich?
Panel Discussion
Don -- How easy is it for you to ascertain your cost of capital; how has it changed over the past 12 months; how volatile is it and how has this impacted your lending activities?
Panel Discussion
Don – What advice can you give to a borrower who finds him/herself in financial trouble, either on a particular deal or in general?
Panel Discussion
Rich – Freddie and Fannie have had an 80% market share of the multifamily finance arena over the past 12-18 months. Do you expect this to continue; do you have any concerns with this concentration?
Panel Discussion
Don, what aspects of a loan should a borrower consider beyond just loan amount and interest rate?
Panel Discussion
Don – Several conduits started hiring and talking about quoting deals. Can this market get back off the ground, and what do you think it will take in order for that to happen? When? What will the deals look like?
Panel Discussion
Will you permit secured secondary debt, mezzanine loans or preferred equity
behindloans or preferred equity behind your
first mortgage? Why and why not, and if
“yes” withwhat parameters? Rich? Don?
Panel Discussion
Rich – How has your North Carolina portfolio performed; how do you feel about our markets in general and Greensboro, High Point and Winston-Salem in particular?
Panel Discussion
Don – What property types and markets in North Carolina are most appealing to you? Which are not and why?
Panel Discussion
What impact will deleveraging play in the viability and valuation of real estate markets?