Weekly Cat Report - Catastrophe Insightcatastropheinsight.aon.com/reports/20200424-1-cat-alert.pdf · Weekly Cat Report 3 Active pattern spawns more major U.S. thunderstorms A period

Weekly Cat Report April 24, 2020

Weekly Cat Report 2

This Week’s Natural Disaster Events

Event Impacted Areas Fatalities Damaged Structures and/or Filed Claims

PreliminaryEconomic Loss (USD)*

Page

Severe Weather United States 10+ Thousands 100s of Millions 3

Flooding Democratic Republic of the Congo 52+ 16,000+ Millions 13

Flooding Rwanda, Burundi 13+ Hundreds Unknown 14

Flooding Kenya 43+ 7,000+ Millions 14

Flooding Djibouti 8+ Thousands Millions 14

Flooding Angola 26+ 2,000+ Unknown 14

Winter Weather Austria N/A N/A 30+ million 16

Severe Weather France 0 Hundreds Millions 16

Flooding Yemen 14+ Hundreds Unknown 16

Severe Weather Australia 0 Thousands Millions 16

*Please note that these estimates are preliminary and subject to change. In some instances, initial estimates may be significantly adjusted as losses develop over time. This data is provided as an initial view of the potential financial impact from a recently completed or ongoing event based on early available assessments.

Along with this report, we continue to welcome users to access current and historical natural catastrophe data and event analysis on Impact Forecasting’s Catastrophe Insight website: http://catastropheinsight.aon.com

Weekly Cat Report 3

Active pattern spawns more major U.S. thunderstorms A period of elevated severe thunderstorm activity resulted in further damage across parts of the U.S. Plains and Southeast during two separate events: April 18-20 and April 21-23. At least 10 people were killed, and dozens of others were injured. The first event brought more tornado touchdowns, large hail, and straight-line winds to sections of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas that were still recovering from the April 12-14 event that spawned 137 confirmed twisters. The second event again prompted more damaging convective storms, tornadoes, and flash flooding in the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast. Total combined economic losses from these events were expected to minimally reach into the hundreds of millions (USD). A majority of the wind and hail-related damage will be covered by insurance.

Meteorological Recap

April 18-20 Event

The first major event of the week was recorded from April 18-20 across the Plains and Southeast, which resulted in 3 deaths, and several injuries. Preliminary reports have confirmed 22 tornadoes associated with this event. It followed just days after a major severe weather outbreak from April 10-14 that affected nearly the identical area, including states which continued to clean-up after 137 confirmed tornadoes touched down.

April 18

On Saturday morning the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day 1 outlook indicated a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather over a small region in the central Florida Peninsula, and a broader region of Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) stretching from east Texas through Louisiana, southern Mississippi, Alabama, and additional portions of Florida.

The main feature early on Saturday was an upper level trough that originated from the Great Lakes and eventually lifted off the northeast coast. An associated elongated surface low pressure system was responsible for dragging a cold front across the eastern United States which extended into the Deep South. This front was accountable for initiating a line of mid-morning severe storms which impacted coastal North Carolina. The main peril was wind, with several reports of minor wind damage, and measured gusts approaching and exceeding 65 mph (105 kph) in Dare County.

Weekly Cat Report 4

Further south, aided by limited diurnal heating, a shortwave disturbance progressed through the northern Gulf of Mexico initiating convective activity over the central Florida peninsula. These storms tracked east-southeast throughout the afternoon hours, bringing welcomed precipitation to regions that have been impacted by expanding drought conditions.

The above-mentioned frontal boundary decelerated in speed throughout the day and began to stall near the Gulf Coast during the afternoon hours. At the same time a high-pressure system began building over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, producing southerly flow responsible for driving the front back northward as a warm front. The northward progression of this front, in tandem with upper level support from a shortwave disturbance progressing eastward from the southern coast of California, produced thunderstorm activity in portions of eastern Texas and southern Louisiana Saturday evening.

The predominant peril was large hail and strong non-tornadic winds. Numerous local reports of severe and damaging hail were recorded north and east of the Houston Metro area. In Walker and Trinity counties (Texas), hail approaching 3.00 to 3.50 inches (75 to 90 millimeters, baseball to softball size) was confirmed.

To date, 52 reports of severe weather were recorded, 28 of which were for hail.

April 19-20

By April 19 into April 20, atmospheric conditions were again favorable for a severe weather outbreak as evident in the daily surface map (graphic on the left). The Storm Prediction Center declared a Moderate Risk (level 4 out of 5) for severe weather encompassing a broad region from eastern Texas, through Louisiana, and into southern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. A broader area of Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) and Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) extended south to the Gulf Coast, and north and east into the Carolinas. Multiple episodes of severe weather were experienced with this event, along with hazards which included flooding rains, straight line winds, large hail, and damaging tornadoes. Many of these same areas were affected not even one week prior by another major convective outbreak.

The intensifying upper level shortwave trough over the Southern Plains quickly progressed eastward, in relatively zonal flow, into the Lower Mississippi Valley and eventually into Alabama and Georgia, before lifting into the Carolinas on Monday. This feature and associated large scale ascent were the main drivers for the severe weather outbreak.

Weekly Cat Report 5

Early in the day, a strengthening low-level jet over the Gulf Coast transported warm moist air into portions of Mississippi and Alabama aiding in expanding the extent of elevated thunderstorms and heavy rainfall along, and north of a warm frontal boundary. This first wave of activity prompted flash flood warnings for regions around Tuscaloosa and Birmingham (Alabama), along with multiple reports of hail, and damaging straight line winds from an embedded bow echo.

Throughout the day an intensifying surface low pressure system ahead of the upper level trough traversed from central Texas/Oklahoma eastward over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This initially triggered additional convective activity in eastern Texas. As the event progressed, the threat for severe weather shifted eastward, remaining concentrated in the vicinity of the quasi-stationary warm frontal boundary – which extended from central Louisiana through southern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. North of the front, a cooler more stable environment supported localized heavy rainfall alongside a slight risk for hail. Regions along and south of the front, in the warm sector, exhibited considerable instability which led to the enhanced risk for severe weather and tornadic activity.

A slight mid-day break in the cloud cover centered over southern Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama allowed for supplementary surface heating to occur, increasing the energy available for the development of thunderstorms. Furthermore, the continued strengthening of the low-level jet and south-westerly surface flow advected warm moist Gulf of Mexico air northward toward the frontal boundary. By mid-day dewpoints throughout the Deep South reached into the upper 60’s and low 70’s (°F). Steep mid-level lapse rates (temperature difference with height), and modest deep and low-level shear - which is desirable for the formation of rotating storms capable of large hail and tornadic activity, were also present.

Weekly Cat Report 6

As anticipated, several distinct clusters and squall lines of severe storms developed across Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and Alabama in the late evening hours. Some storms displayed super-cellular characteristics. The predominant perils were damaging winds, and large hail, with isolated reports of tornadoes.

In Mississippi, a supercell produced a long track, and destructive tornado southwest of Hattiesburg, near the towns of Hurricane Creek, Pine Burr, Purvis and Camp Shelby. The life-threatening storm prompted the SPC to issue the following statement:

“Based on recent radar and environmental data, a strong to potentially violent tornado with potential peak winds of 120 to 170 mph EF3+ is likely ongoing.”

Later, a survey by the NWS confirmed that this storm produced an EF4 tornado with wind speeds of 170 mph (275 kph) and a maximum width of 1.25 miles (2 kilometers), resulting in at least one death. The storm correspondingly produced localized flash flooding near the town of Hattiesburg resulting in water rescues, and impassable roads. The track of this tornado was only 30-40 miles south of where another deadly EF4 tornado touched down just a week prior.

The severe storms organized into a linear convective system as they further progressed eastward toward southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, resulting in numerous reports of damaging straight-line winds in excess of 85 mph (135 kph), several areas of pronounced rotation embedded in the line produced additional tornadoes overnight.

Further north, a training line of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms were responsible for flash flooding in Georgia, focused on an east-west axis extending from near Columbus to Dublin. The Columbus Metropolitan Airport recorded 5.92 inches of rainfall in a 24-hour period, the largest one-day total in station history (with records dating back to 1948).

The severe threat diminished from west to east with the passing of the surface low and an associated cold front, which traversed through northern Florida and off the southeast coast on Monday. The line continued to produce several reports of severe weather across Florida, with additional tornadic activity in Marion, Seminole, and Citrus Counties on Monday afternoon. On April 19, a total of 216 reports of severe weather were recorded, with 22 for tornadoes and a majority being straight-line winds. The next day, April 20, a total of 58 reports of severe weather were recorded, including four suspected tornadoes.

Weekly Cat Report 7

April 21-23 Event

The second major event of the week was recorded from April 21-23 across the Southern Plains and Southeast, leaving at least 7 killed, and dozens injured. On Tuesday April 21, an upper level trough which traversed from the west coast through the Four Corners region was the primary focus of multi-day severe weather outbreak for the Southern United States. The trough, following the strong sub-tropical jet stream, continued progressing eastward on Wednesday toward the South-Central states, before moving into the Southeastern states, and lifting northward on Thursday.

April 21

On April 21 the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlighted a region in central and western Oklahoma extending into the Texas panhandle for a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe weather, with large hail being the main peril of concern.

A pronounced area of large scale ascent was established in the Southern and Central plains in relation to the approaching upper-level trough. A departing ridge allowed an influx of moist air into the region, increasing dew points to near 60°F (16°C) by the late evening hours. In addition, the environment was exhibiting steep lapse rates (change in temperature with height) and strong vertical wind shear.

In the overnight hours, a warm frontal boundary ahead of the developing surface low pressure system – west of the Texas panhandle, became the primary boundary for severe weather expansion. Elevated clusters and discrete supercells north of the Red River, and East of the Texas panhandle prompted reports of severe and significant hail.

There were 12 reports of significant hail (hail greater than or equal to 2.00 inches, 50 mm) on April 21. Hail approaching 2.75 in (70 mm) were reported in Beckman and Cotton counties (Oklahoma), with a report of 3.00 in (75 mm) hail in Comanche County (Oklahoma).

Weekly Cat Report 8

April 22

The predominate severe threat shifted southward and eastward on Wednesday, progressing with the upper level trough. At the surface, the strengthening low continued evolving across Oklahoma and Arkansas. The SPC declared a broad area of Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe weather in southeastern Oklahoma, eastern Texas, southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana.

Throughout the day, a healthy low-level jet ushered in warm moist air from the south and western Gulf of Mexico to regions in eastern Texas and Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Thunderstorm activity and locally heavy rainfall was initially active adjacent to, and north of an associated warm frontal boundary across southern Oklahoma – which extended southeastward toward coastal Louisiana. Severe discrete thunderstorms occurred in portions of eastern Oklahoma in the late morning, where hail approaching 2.5 in (65 mm) was reported in Marshall County (Oklahoma). As of this writing, 55 reports of severe hail were recorded on April 22, of which 7 were for significant hail.

Later in the period, an extremely favorable environment for severe development existed immediately south and east of the surface low, ahead of an approaching dryline (a boundary that separates a moist air mass from a dry air mass). In this region a volatile severe threat targeted east-central Texas and Oklahoma, as well as western Louisiana. Observed steep lapse rate and favorable vertical wind shear along with warm air advection and modest diurnal heating, allowed for initiation and intensification of severe storms throughout the afternoon and evening.

In southern Oklahoma and far northern Texas, a line of severe discrete supercell storms formed along the dryline and cold front sequence, south of the surface low. These storms resulted in four separate simultaneously effective tornado warnings. As of Thursday afternoon, Oklahoma had 9 tornado reports from this event, along with a report of hail approaching 3.00 inches (75 mm) in Johnston County.

Further south, a severe long track and rotating supercell departing Polk and Tyler counties and heading toward Jasper and Newton counties in Texas, with a well-defined hook echo, prompted the NWS to issue a Tornado Emergency Warning for a Particularly Dangerous Situation. Shortly after, a tornado debris signature was present on weather radar scans. As the supercell tracked closer to the Louisiana border the SPC release the following statement:

‘Based on recent radar and environmental data, a strong to potentially intense tornado with potential peak winds of 120 to 165 mph (EF2-EF3) is likely ongoing.’

This supercell maintained severe status, with tornado warnings for a majority of its lifecycle as it traversed from Texas through Louisiana and across the Mississippi River, before it finally started to weaken in Mississippi. Throughout its path the storm cycled multiple times and was responsible for producing large and life-threatening tornadoes. Overall, two Tornado Emergencies were issues by the NWS, along with multiple Particularly Dangerous Situation Warnings. At times, in Louisiana, radar signatures indicated the storm was displaying two distinct areas of rotation, along with additional tornado debris signatures.

Weekly Cat Report 9

Further north, a pair or slow moving severe thunderstorms aligned in a linear manner were responsible for flash flooding and reports of hail in west central Louisiana, as these storms strengthened they also resulted in tornado warnings.

April 23

The severe threat for the southeast continued overnight as storm activity began forming into a linear cluster along a boundary traveling eastward, the primary severe threat remained in the most unstable airmass closest to the Gulf Coast. By Thursday morning, this cluster was situated roughly from Atlanta (Georgia) and extending southwestward toward Mobile (Alabama).

A ridge of high pressure continued to retreat into the western Atlantic, as the surface low tracked across the Tennessee Valley and lifted northeastward toward the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. The associated warm front initially extended from west-central Alabama southeastward toward the Gulf Coast, and lifted northward through portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and Georgia. Localities along and south of the warm front, in the warm sector, exhibited the highest instability for severe weather. The complex continued through southern Georgia, the Florida panhandle, and South Carolina. The SPC outlook declared an Elevated Risk of severe weather (level 3 out of 5) for a corridor extending from the Florida Panhandle, north and east into southeastern Alabama, and spanning southern Georgia.

As the storms progressed eastward, a bow echo with embedded super-cellular characteristic produced a confirmed tornado in southern Georgia, resulting in another Particularly Dangerous Situation tornado warning from the NWS.

Once the morning convection cleared, additional destabilization occurred throughout the afternoon for regions around eastern Mississippi and southern Alabama. A second round of thunderstorm activity began in these regions, localized in a narrow warm sector, ahead of the approaching surface cold front.

Weekly Cat Report 10

Event Details

April 18-20 Event

Alabama Several tornadoes were confirmed near the Mobile greater metro area, a few miles southwest of the regional airport. Damage was reported to numerous structures, including roofs, siding, gutters, and porches. An EF2 tornado in Covington County caused reported damage to several structures, including a duplex and a single-family home.

NWS damage surveys were conducted for two severe straight-line events in Alabama. The first resulting from the morning bow echo in Chilton, Coosa, and Tallapoosa counties where peak wind gusts were estimated between 70 and 90 mph (115 to 145 kph). This resulted in two damaged structures from falling trees, in addition to three campers. Wind driven hail was responsible for extensive exterior damage in Coosa county. A second event associated with the nighttime severe line of storms, had estimated peak wind speeds of 85 to 95 mph (135 to 150 kph). In Pike and Barbour counties, trees fell on structures along with damage to roofs, siding, and outbuildings.

In Tuscaloosa, according to Tuscaloosa Fire and Rescue, a Fire at the Moody Music Hall on the University of Alabama campus Sunday morning was caused by a lightning strike.

The Henry County Coroner reported at least one death resulting from the storms due to an overturned mobile home.

Florida As a line of severe convective storms traversed the state Monday resulting in several reports of tornadoes. One tornado in Citrus County impacted at least 7 structures, 2 with major damage.

Georgia A training line of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms were responsible for flash flooding in Georgia focused on an east-west axis extending from near Columbus to Dublin. The Columbus Metropolitan Airport recorded 5.92 inches of rainfall in a 24-hour period, the largest one-day total in station history, dating back to 1948. Additional readings of over 4 inches were reported in Bibb and Houston Counties.

Louisiana As of this writing, three confirmed tornadoes have been reported in Louisiana. One of these, in St. Tammany Parish resulted in damage to multiple structures and vehicles resulting from falling trees, as well as a structure on the campus of Mandeville Elementary.

Roof damage in Citrus County, FL. (Source: NWS Tampa Bay)

Wind driven hail damage in Coosa County, AL. (Source: NWS Birmingham)

Weekly Cat Report 11

Mississippi The Hurricane Creek, Pine Burr, Purvis, Camp Shelby long track tornado was rating an EF4 with peak winds of 170 mph (275 kph), a maximum width of 1.25 miles (2 kilometers), and total path length of 54.2 miles (87 kilometers). The tornado resulted in one death and one injury.

On Monday morning, the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) reported over 8,000 customers remained without power. At least 29 homes were impacted, and one home destroyed, along with a fire station in Marion County.

Texas In the evening on April 18, numerous reports of large and damaging hail were recoded north and east of the Houston mero area. The most impressive report was of hailstones up to 3.50 inches (90 mm, approaching softball size) in Walker County.

April 21-23 Event

As of this writing, at least seven deaths and dozens of injuries can be contributed to this event. Preliminary records from the SPC include 319 reports of severe weather from April 21-23. As of the morning on April 23, it was estimated more than 150,000 customers were without power spanning from Texas to Georgia.

In Marshall County, Oklahoma officials reported at least two deaths from a tornado that went through the town of Madill. The Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management updated that at least 12 homes were impacted, damage surveys were still ongoing.

In Polk County, Texas emergency management officials responded to reports of storm related damage near the town of Onalaska where 20-30 injuries, and at least 3 deaths have been reported. It is estimated that 245 homes were affected, of which 46 were destroyed. This tornado was preliminarily rated an EF2.

In Louisiana, the Rapides Parish sheriff’s office reported at least one death attributed to the storms. The Louisiana State University Alexandria (LSUA) campus sustained damage to the DeWitt Livestock Building. A second death was attributed to flooding near the town of Mansfield.

In Mississippi, The Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA), reported an estimated 20 homes in Pike county were impacted from this event.

In southern Georgia, a supercell thunderstorm produced a damaging and potentially life-threatening tornado during the afternoon on April 23, with reported damage in the towns on Pelham and Adel.

Aerial view of tornado damage in Lamar County, MS. (Source: Mississippi Emergency Management Agency)

Damage to the LSUA Ag Center (Source: @LSUAlexandria)

Weekly Cat Report 12

Financial Loss With the event still ongoing, it remains too preliminary to provide a specific economic or insured loss estimate. However, the aggregated costs associated with both events from the week – April 18-20 and April 21-23 – were expected to minimally reach into the hundreds of millions (USD); if not higher. Most of the wind and hail-related damage was expected to be covered by insurance. The United States has already recorded no fewer than five billion-dollar economic loss events resulting from severe convective storms thus far in 2020. One of the events – the March 27-30 outbreak –cost insurers more than USD1.0 billion alone.

While large hail continues to be a primary driver of losses in 2020, the wind component has played a major role, too. Straight-line winds have been particularly damaging, though tornadic activity has been highly elevated as well. April 2020 was poised to surpass the 200-tornado threshold for the month. This would mark just the 11th time on record since 1950 that April recorded that many twisters. It would also be just the second time in which back-to-back April’s surpassed 200 tornadoes; previously 2011 and 2012. Just 14 percent of U.S. tornado seasons since 1950 have topped 200 tornadoes in April.

Weekly Cat Report 13

Impact of seasonal flooding in African countries Seasonal rains since mid-April has resulted in major flooding across several sub-Saharan countries in Africa. More than 140 people are confirmed dead. Some of the worst-hit areas included in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where 52 people were killed and a minimum of 15,000 homes were damaged or destroyed. Notable floods also occurred in Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, Djibouti, and Angola.

Meteorological Recap Seasonal rainfall throughout sub-Saharan Africa led to regional flooding events in multiple countries. In Eastern Africa, two distinct rainy seasons occur during the warmer period of the year as the ITCZ passes this region twice, moving in a large latitude span. These so-called short rains, which occur from October through December (OND) and long rains, rainy season from March to May (MAM) bring rainfall that is substantial for the region’s agriculture. At the southern limit of the ITCZ, near the Tropic of Capricorn, only one rainy season occurs with a maximum in December or January. According to the FEWS Seasonal Monitor, despite rainfall deficits in some areas in late March and early April, the onset of the long rains has been slightly early or on time in most countries.

Event Details

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Torrential rains on April 16-17 caused devastating flooding and loss of life in several provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The worst situation was reported from Uvira in South Kivu Province on the coast of Lake Tanganyika. As of April 21, local authorities confirmed at least 52 fatalities; around 80 people were reported to be injured. The United Nations’ peacekeeping organization MONUSCO, which operates in the area, reported 15,000 homes damaged or destroyed; local officials noted at least 3,500 homes were destroyed. Around 80,000 people were said to be affected in total.

Further, unconfirmed reports suggested notable flooding in the Tanganyika Province. Roughly 1,000 homes were reportedly flooded in Kabalo on the River Lualaba; other reports suggested 2,500 homes inundated from other locations in the province.

Weekly Cat Report 14

Rwanda & Burundi

Heavy rains affected various parts of Rwanda over the past week. Authorities confirmed six fatalities and unspecified damage to property in the Gicumbi district on April 19, mainly due to landslides; three deaths were noted in Gatsibo District. Heavy rains also triggered landslides in Rulindo District of the Northern Province on April 21 and resulted in at least four fatalities and 110 homes damaged or destroyed. Economic losses were not expected to be significant.

Heavy rains also impacted the neighboring Burundi on April 13-19. Nearly 28,000 people were reported to be displaced due to flooding on Ruzizi river in Bujumbura Rural Province, which is adjacent to South Kivu in DRC. Further losses occurred in Cibitoke and Bubanza. Initial reports suggested more than 6,000 homes were flooded.

Kenya

A notable spell of rain on April 18, which occurred during a prolonged period of precipitation, since April 13, caused landslides and flooding in parts of Western Kenya. Elgeyo Marakwet and West Pokot Counties in the Rift Valley Province were affected. The worst incident occurred in Kipchumwa and Chesegon settlements, where landslides left at least 37 people dead or missing. Local officials noted 4,000 people (nearly 500 homes) displaced and requested 11,000 to evacuate after the event.

Further flooding was noted in Nyanza Province on April 19-21, with six fatalities. In Kisumu County alone, 6,500 households (32,000 people) were reported to be displaced. Additional instances of notable floods were reported form the southern part of the Rift Valley province, particularly Kericho and Samburu counties. The floods come in the midst of the Kenyan rainy season, with the precipitation maximum typically occurring in April.

Djibouti

The capital of Djibouti received 80 millimeters (3.1 inches) of rain overnight from April 20 to 21, which corresponds to approximately half of the annual climatological rainfall; some parts of the country even saw precipitation totals exceeding 100 millimeters (3.9 inches). This resulted in widespread urban flooding, with the capital perhaps most severely affected. Further flash flooding occurred elsewhere in Djibouti. At least eight people were reported to be killed in the event.

Source: Nyarugenge District, City of Kigali

Weekly Cat Report 15

Angola

Isolated urban flash flooding occurred in the agglomeration of the Angolan capital of Luanda on April 18. According to the Provincial Civil Protection Commission, eight deaths occurred in the municipality of Kilamba Kiaxi, and three in the municipality of Talatona. About 2,000 homes were flooded; nearly 11,000 people were displaced. Further minor flood- and wind-related damage was initially reported from downtown districts of Maianga and Ingombota. Additional, minor flooding incidents were reported from Lubango in southwestern Angola and Malanje, east of Luanda where dozens of structures were impacted. Total count of killed and missing across the country was 26.

Weekly Cat Report 16

Natural Catastrophes: In Brief Winter Weather (Austria) Notable influx of cold air affected several Central European countries in mid-April, with minimum temperatures reached in the morning of April 15. Preliminary estimates by the Austrian Hail Insurance suggested notable damage on apples, in addition to several types of stone fruits, which were already affected by the Arctic outbreak in late March/early April. The agency noted 8,000 hectares affected so far this year, with the collective economic loss listed at EUR50 million (USD54 million). Most apple producers are insured. Freezing temperatures were also recorded in neighboring countries; however, estimates of potential impact were not available.

Severe Weather (France) Several regions of France were affected by thunderstorms on April 17, with some instances of notable impact. Multiple strong cells developed along a quasi-stationary front in the southwest, causing relatively minor effects on viticulture. Damage was reported from the Dordogne Department, west of Bergerac with up to 600 hectares (1,500 acres) affected. Notable vineyard impact was also observed in the eastern part of the Gironde Department. Local Chamber of Agriculture estimated up to 800 hectares (2,000) acres were significantly hit, suggesting that total costs will be in the millions EUR. In northern France, intense rainfall resulted in isolated flash flooding and mudslides in rural parts of Somme and Pas-de-Calais; 14 municipalities were impacted in the Somme, east of Abbeville. Bussus-Bussuel, Francières and Buigny-l'Abbé were hit the hardest with at least 120 homes and multiple vehicles flooded; some homes were inundated to the height of 1.5 meters (4.9 feet). In Pas-de-Calais, about 150 homes were flooded in Auxi-le-Château as the storm continued north, and dozens of homes were flooded in the area between Arras and Cambrai, particularly in Villers-lès-Cagnicourt and Écourt-Saint-Quentin.

Flooding (Yemen) Devastating flash flooding hit parts of Yemen on April 21 after a period of intense rainfall, with Aden receiving as much as 125 millimeters (4.9 inches). Notable floods were also reported form Sana’a and Marib. There were at least 14 fatalities, while dozens more were injured. Initial reports suggested hundreds of structures and vehicles affected, particularly in Aden.

Severe Weather (Australia) A violent supercell storm passed through central Queensland on April 19. According to local media reports and the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), hailstones with a maximum diameter of 8 to 10 centimeters (baseball to softball size) were observed in Rockhampton, Yeppoon, and Mackay areas, coupled with winds gusts exceeding 100 kph (62 mph). Initial reports revealed widespread damage to vehicles and property, additionally to crops. Local insurers minimally expected several thousands of claims, mainly due to car damage; however, the event has not yet been declared a catastrophe by the Insurance Council of Australia.

Weekly Cat Report 17

Global Temperature Anomaly Forecast

Source: Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA

Weekly Cat Report 18

Global Precipitation Forecast

Source: Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA

Weekly Cat Report 19

Weekly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies (°C)

The SST anomalies are produced by subtracting the long-term mean SST (for that location in that time of year) from the current value. This product with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree (50 kilometers) is based on NOAA/NESDIS operational daily global 5 kilometer Geo-polar Blended Night-only SST Analysis. The analysis uses satellite data produced by AVHRR radiometer.

Select Current Global SSTs and Anomalies Location of Buoy Temp (°C) Departure from Last Year (°C)

Eastern Pacific Ocean (1,020 miles SW of San Salvador, El Salvador) 26.7 +2.1

Niño3.4 region (2°N latitude, 155°W longitude) 27.8 +0.2

Western Pacific Ocean (700 miles NNW of Honiara, Solomon Islands) 30.0 +0.2

Sources: ESRL, NOAA, NEIS, National Data Buoy Center

Weekly Cat Report 20

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present. NOAA notes that there is a roughly 60 percent chance of neutral conditions lingering through the Northern Hemisphere (boreal) summer months. The agency further states it is more than likely that such conditions will last through the boreal autumn.

El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures (+0.5°C) that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle. La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures (-0.5°C) across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle.

El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but some prolonged events may last for years. While their frequency can be quite irregular, El Niño and La Niña events occur on average every two to seven years. Typically, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.

ENSO-neutral refers to those periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present. These periods often coincide with the transition between El Niño and La Niña events. During ENSO-neutral periods the ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are near the long-term average.

El Niño (La Niña) is a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a five consecutive 3-month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region that is above the threshold of +0.5°C (-0.5°C). This standard of measure is known as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

AMJ2020

MJJ2020

JJA2020

JAS2020

ASO2020

SON2020

OND2020

NDJ2020

DJF2020

Pro

bab

ility

(%

)

Time period

Mid April IRI/CPC Model-BasedProbabilistic ENSO Forecast

El Niño

Neutral

La Niña

El Niño

Neutral

La Niña

Climatological

Source: NOAA

Weekly Cat Report 21

Global Tropics Outlook

Source: Climate Prediction Center

Weekly Cat Report 22

Current Tropical Systems

Location and Intensity Information Name* Location Winds Storm Reference from Land Motion**

* TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone ** N = North, S = South, E = East, W = West, NW = Northwest, NE = Northeast, SE = Southeast, SW = Southwest Sources: National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Weekly Cat Report 23

Global Earthquake Activity (≥M4.0): April 17-23

Significant EQ Location and Magnitude (≥M6.0) Information Date UTC) Location Magnitude Depth Epicenter

4/18/2020 27.14N, 140.11E 6.6 454 km 20 kilometers (12 miles) W of Chichi-shima, Japan

4/19/2020 38.91N, 141.93E 6.3 38 km 25 kilometers (16 miles) SE of Ofunato, Japan

Source: United States Geological Survey

Weekly Cat Report 24

U.S. Weather Threat Outlook

Potential Threats A dominant ridge of high pressure centered over the Southwestern United States, will result in much

above normal temperatures for regions in the Desert Southwest, California, the Great Basin, and the Four Corners.

A series of upper level troughs, along with a developing coastal low will lead to a period of wet and cooler conditions for portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic late this weekend, higher regions in interior New England could experience periods of snow. A second upper level trough has the potential to bring unsettled weather to the Northeast and Appalachians by mid-week.

An additional round of heavy rain and storms will target the Mississippi Valley next Tuesday, a region which is still recovering from recent heavy rainfall and severe weather.

Flooding concerns across portions of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley are enhanced due to recent rainfall and saturated soils.

Ongoing flooding concerns remain for portions of the Upper Midwest and Mississippi River Valley due to prolonged elevated precipitation and oversaturated soils.

Drought conditions persist across regions of Southern Texas and the Plains, and are expanding in the Pacific Northwest.

Source: Climate Prediction Center

Weekly Cat Report 25

U.S. Wildfire: Significant Fire Risk Outlook & Activity

The National Interagency Fire Center has highlighted an extended risk of elevated wildfire conditions across parts of the Desert Southwest, Plains, and the Southeast through the last week of April. One area of focus will be in the Desert Southwest as dry and windy conditions establish that enhances the fire risk.

Annual YTD Wildfire Comparison: April 10* Year Number of Fires Acres Burned Acres Burned Per Fire

2016 11,122 832,755 74.87

2017 15,692 2,179,375 138.88

2018 13,145 540,164 41.09

2019 7,602 182,747 24.04

2020 8,275 191,665 23.16

10-Year Average (2010-2019) 12,610 548,490 43.50

*Last available update from NIFC Source: National Interagency Fire Center

Top 5 Most Acres Burned by State: April 23 State Number of Fires Acres Burned Acres Burned Per Fire

Oklahoma 503 70,919 140.99

Florida 1,038 22,246 21.43

Kansas 34 21,880 643.53

Texas 807 21,602 26.77

Mississippi 318 15,999 50.31

Source: National Interagency Fire Center

Weekly Cat Report 26

Current U.S. Streamflow Status

A ≥99th percentile indicates that estimated streamflow is greater than the 99th percentile for all days of the year. This methodology also applies for the other two categories. A steam in a state of severe drought has 7-day average streamflow of less than or equal to the 5th percentile for this day of the year. Moderate drought indicates that estimated 7-day streamflow is between the 6th and 9th percentile for this day of the year and ‘below normal’ state is between 10th and 24th percentile.

Top 5 Rivers Currently Nearing or Exceeding Flood Stage Location Flood Stage (ft) Current Stage (ft) % of Full Capacity

Ohoopee River near Reidsville, Georgia 11.00 17.32 157%

James River at Ashton, South Dakota 13.00 18.24 140%

James River at Columbia, South Dakota 13.00 18.05 139%

Big Black River at West, Mississippi 15.00 20.72 138%

Lower Atchafalaya River at Morgan City, Louisiana 6.00 7.94 132%

Source: United States Geological Survey

Weekly Cat Report 27

Source Information Active pattern spawns more major U.S. thunderstorms Several Dead, Dozens Injured In Tornadoes That Swept Through South Central U.S., NPR News At least 7 dead as storms hit Oklahoma, Texas and Louisiana, The Associated Press Polk County Office of Emergency Management Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management U.S. Storm Prediction Center U.S. National Weather Service U.S. Weather Prediction Center

Impact of seasonal flooding in African countries Floods in Tanganyika: more than 1,000 houses collapsed in Kabalo. Radio Okapi 24 still missing and 4,000 displaced after mudslides, Standard 11,000 people ordered to vacate mudslide areas. The Star Heavy rains kill four children, destroy over 110 houses in Rulindo. The New Times Heavy rains kill six in Gicumbi District. The New Times MONUSCO Government of Kenya Kenya Red Cross ReliefWeb Provincial Civil Protection Commission, Angola

Natural Catastrophes: In Brief Floods in the Somme: the affected municipalities may request their classification in a state of natural disaster. France Info Bad weather: numerous damages in Arrrageois, Ternois and Douaisis. La Voix du Nord Bad weather: between 500 and 600 hectares of vines affected by hail on Friday in Bergerac. France Bleu 'Fourteen dead' in Yemen's flood-hit Aden. Gulf Times Supercell storm's tennis ball-sized hail causes widespread damage to homes and property. ABC News Austrian Hail Insurance Gironde Chamber of Agriculture, France

Weekly Cat Report 28

Contact Information Steve Bowen Director & Meteorologist Head of Catastrophe Insight Impact Forecasting Aon [email protected] Michal Lörinc Senior Catastrophe Analyst Impact Forecasting Aon [email protected]

Weekly Cat Report 29

About Aon

Aon plc (NYSE:AON) is a leading global professional services firm providing a broad range of risk, retirement and health solutions. Our 50,000 colleagues in 120 countries empower results for clients by using proprietary data and analytics to deliver insights that reduce volatility and improve performance.

© Aon plc 2020. All rights reserved. The information contained herein and the statements expressed are of a general nature and are not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information and use sources we consider reliable, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.

Copyright © by Impact Forecasting®

No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting® has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting® does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances.

Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting® summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting® and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting’s webpage at impactforecasting.com.

Copyright © by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting® is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc.