Weekly Cat Report - Catastrophe Insightcatastropheinsight.aonbenfield.com/Reports/20150612-1-cat-alert.pdf · 6/12/2015 · Weekly Cat Report June 12, 2015 . Aon Benfield Analytics

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Weekly Cat Report June 12, 2015


Weekly Cat Report 2

This Week’s Natural Disaster Events

Event & Region Fatalities Structures/Claims

Economic Loss (USD)

Specific Areas

Severe Weather - United States

0

Thousands

100s of Millions

Plains, Rockies, Midw est, Northeast

Earthquake - Asia

19+

Hundreds

Unknow n

Malaysia, Indonesia

Hurricane Blanca - North America

0

Unknow n

Unknow n

Mexico

Cyclone Ashobaa - EMEA

0

Unknow n

Unknow n

Oman

Flooding - Asia

16+

25,000+

2.0+ billion

China, India

Severe Weather: Rounds of severe thunderstorms tracked across much of the eastern two-thirds

of the United States this week, causing widespread damage from the Rockies to New England. No fatalities or serious injuries were reported. Preliminary storm report data from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), which has been filtered to remove duplicates, indicated that there were 932 reports of tornadoes (40), damaging winds (558), and large hail (334) during a stretch from June 3-11. Details begin on page 3.

Earthquake: A USGS-registered magnitude-6.0 earthquake struck the eastern Malaysia state

of Sabah on June 5, triggering rockslides on Mount Kinabalu that left at least 18 people dead. A further 10 were injured. Details are on page 5.

Tropical Systems: A rapidly weakened Major Hurricane Blanca made landfall at tropical storm

strength on Mexico’s Baja California Sur on Monday morning. No serious injuries or fatalities were reported. Elsewhere, Cyclone Ashobaa was forecast to make landfall in Oman at minimal tropical storm strength on Friday though flooding across the desert terrain was a threat. Details are on page 5.

Flooding: Torrential rains and strong thunderstorms continued to inundate northern and

southern sections of China this week, killing at least 16 people. The provincial regions of Hunan, Guizhou, Hubei, and Gansu were worst-impacted as total aggregated economic losses across the country totaled USD2.0 billion. Elsewhere, monsoon rains impacted 311,000 people in India and killed at least 21 in Nepal. Details begin on page 5.


Weekly Cat Report 3

Severe thunderstorms sweep across the U.S. Rounds of severe thunderstorms tracked across much of the eastern two-thirds of the United States this week, causing widespread damage from the Rockies to New England. No fatalities or serious injuries were reported. Preliminary storm report data from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), which has been filtered to remove duplicates, indicated that there were 932 reports of tornadoes (40), damaging winds (558), and large hail (334) during a stretch from June 3-11.

Meteorological Recap There were two distinct periods of inclement weather: June 3-8 and June 9-11. The first stretch June 3-8 was spawned by a broad upper level cyclonic flow and trough that extended from the Rockies into the northern Plains. This was accompanied by a series of surface areas of low pressure that occurred along a weak cold front that stretched across the nation’s midsection. When combined with an active low-level jet stream and ample daytime heating and moisture, atmospheric conditions were ripe for considerable

thunderstorm activity each day. From June 3-5, most of the tornadic and hail producing storms were across parts of Colorado and the Plains; while the pattern slowly shifted into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and Appalachia on June 6-8. The SPC declared Enhanced and Slight risks of severe weather each day, including such major metro regions as Denver, CO; Kansas City, MO; Chicago, IL; and Baltimore, MD. On June 9-11, a strengthening surface cold front dropped southward out of Canada into the Northern Tier and eventually into the Great Lakes. The surface boundary was accompanied by an upper level trough that also spawned a closed mid-level circulation that traversed into Quebec, Canada. This led to widespread thunderstorm activity from Nebraska into southern Canada, particularly on June 10. Another round of severe thunderstorms occurred from Colorado to Michigan on June 11, as straight-line wind and large hail damage was most prevalent.

Event Details During the early stages of the eight-day stretch, the most considerable damage was registered in Colorado, where up to baseball-sized hail pelted parts of Boulder and Larimer counties. Some parts of Boulder County near Lyons indicated near continuous hail for more than one hour on June 4. Isolated tornadoes caused damage to dozens of homes in Berthoud, Colorado as well; while flash flooding and hail was noted in the greater Denver metro region. Additional thunderstorm damage was reported across portions of Kansas and Nebraska.

The damage concentration shifted into the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast from June 9-11, as multiple rounds of severe storms pelted numerous cities. On June 10, a long line of storms developed directly along a cold front that saw damage reports from Nebraska to New York state. Up to softball-sized hail fell in the greater Chicago metro region as slow-moving thunderstorm cells also spawned flash flooding following multiple inches of rainfall. The 4.25-inch (10.8-centimeter) hailstone is thought to be the second-largest ever documented in the Chicago area. Only a 6.00-inch (15.24-centimeter) hailstone recorded in April 1961 in Kankakee County was bigger.

Sof tball-sized hail in IL (Source: NWS)


Weekly Cat Report 4

Separately, an upper level low combined with an on-shore flow from the Gulf of Mexico led to tremendous rainfall in the greater Tampa, FL metro region on June 10. Flash flooding was prevalent in many neighborhoods and roads as up to 4.00 inches (102 millimeters) of rain fell in a matter of hours.

Financial Loss The recent storms are going to add to what has been an active and costly stretch for thunderstorms in the United States. Since April 1, economic losses from convective storms and flooding has approached USD6.0 billion. Of that total, roughly USD4.0 billion has been covered by public and private insurance.

Up to 18 killed in Malaysia after EQ triggers rockslides A USGS-registered magnitude-6.0 earthquake struck the eastern Malaysia state of Sabah on June 5, triggering rockslides on Mount Kinabalu that left at least 18 people dead. A further 10 were injured. The tremor occurred at 7:15 AM local time June 5 (23:15 UTC June 4) with an epicenter located 15 kilometers (9 miles) west of Ranau, Malaysia at a depth of 10.0 kilometers (6.2 miles). Local residents reported shaking for up to 30 seconds, and at least 58 aftershocks were recorded in the days following the main jolt.

Seismological Recap Analysis of the event from the Earth Observatory of Singapore indicated that the earthquake was triggered by a sudden slippage along a fault line which was

estimated at roughly 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) in length. The fault line is part of a broader system of faults that stretches nearly 200 kilometers (124 miles) from the northeast to southwest across this part of Sabah. Destructive earthquakes in easternmost Malaysia are rare. Seismologists noted that this was the strongest earthquake to strike Malaysia since 1976. That temblor was registered at a magnitude-5.8 and struck Lahad Datu – causing heavy damage to property and cracks in buildings. In the last 39 years, there have been four notable earthquakes near Ranau, most notably in 1989, when a magnitude-5.6 was recorded. Other events include 1991 (M5.1), 2005 (M4.1), and 2010 (M2.6).

Event Details All 18 of the fatalities were recorded on Mount Kinabalu, where climbers were struck by fallen rocks and boulders. Most of the casualties were Singaporean students and adults from the Tanjong Katong Primary School. In terms of damage, multiple hostels and resthouses were seriously damaged in addition to 23 schools, buildings and mountain huts. In areas away from Mount Kinabalu, there were widespread reports of shattered windows and slight cracking in buildings but major structural damage was not apparent. Also, water and electric supply was disrupted in areas around Kundasang and Ranau. Total economic losses were expected to be minimal.

June 5 Earthquake Epicenter (Source: USGS)


Weekly Cat Report 5

Blanca makes landfall in Mexico; Ashobaa near Oman

Major Hurricane Blanca The first landfalling storm of what is anticipated to be a very active 2015 Eastern Pacific hurricane season occurred this week, with Major Hurricane Blanca coming ashore in Baja California as a much weakened tropical storm. Blanca, which at its peak attained Category 4 intensity with 130 mph (210 kph) winds, developed off the southwest coast of Mexico and slowly traversed north-northwestward from June 1-8. Very warm sea surface temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions helped fuel the storm before encountering cooler ocean waters, wind shear and interaction with land caused Blanca to rapidly weaken prior to landfall. The cyclone officially made landfall near Puerto Cortes, Mexico on Baja California Sur on June 8 (Monday) at approximately 6:00AM local time (12:00 UTC) with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kph). The storm prompted periods of heavy rains and gusty winds, but no widespread or significant damage was reported. The storm’s remnants would eventually bring welcome rainfall across parts of the U.S. Southwest. Blanca became the earliest instance of a second major hurricane in a year on record – besting the previous record set on June 12, 2014 following the development of Hurricane Cristina.

Cyclone Ashobaa Cyclone Ashobaa developed in the warm waters of the Arabian Sea this week, before weakening prior to making a rare forecast landfall in Oman on Friday, June 12. The storm, which reached a peak intensity of 100 kph (65 mph), encountered dry air and a lack of tropical moisture as it approached Oman on Wednesday and Thursday. Periods of heavy rainfall were forecast and flooding was a threat for some coastal areas where excessive rains are not the norm in such a desert terrain. Given the significant weakening of the storm’s inner core due to dry air entrainment, severe wind damage was not expected.

The strongest cyclone on record to strike Oman occurred in June 2007, when Cyclone Gonu grazed the country’s eastern coast with 150 kph (90 mph) winds. The storm caused upwards of USD5.0 billion (2015 USD) in economic damage in Oman and Iran.

Monsoon rains continue in China and India

China Torrential rains and strong thunderstorms continued to inundate northern and southern sections of China this week, killing at least 16 people. The provincial regions of Hunan, Guizhou, Hubei, and Gansu were worst-impacted as more than 20,000 homes were damaged by high winds, flooding, and large hail between June 7-11. Regional officials noted that agriculture was the hardest-hit sector as tens of thousands of hectares (acres) of cropland was destroyed. China’s official Ministry of Civil Affairs reported that total aggregated economic losses from the most recent stretch tallied at least CNY12.4 billion (USD2.0 billion).

Hurricane Blanca (Source: NASA)


Weekly Cat Report 6

India The seasonal southwest monsoon arrived in India’s Assam state on June 6, bringing heavy rainfall that prompted flooding in many districts. No fatalities were immediately reported. According to the Assam State Disaster Management Authority, at least 702 districts sustained flood inundation, with Barpeta, Sonitpur, and Goalpara worst-affected. In total, more than 311,000 people were affected. Much of the damage resulted from the overflow of the Brahmaputra River that was above the warning level mark in many parts of Assam and also the neighboring Arunachal Pradesh state. Most river heights were around 48.88 meters, which is below the all-time crest of 51.46 meters recorded along the Brahmaputra River in 2004. Nearly 11,000 hectares (27,181 acres) of cropland were also submerged. Additional monsoon rains were in the forecast in Assam during the next several days.

Natural Catastrophes: In Brief Nepal, Landslides & Flooding Monsoon rains prompted torrential rains in northeastern Nepal on Thursday, June 11, causing widespread landslides and flash flooding. At least 21 people were killed and 27 others remained listed as missing. The hardest-hit region was Taplejung District, where landslines buried at least six villages. Hundreds of homes were damaged or destroyed. Additional rains were in the forecast as rescue officials struggled to reach some of the hardest-hit areas as the landslides blocked access to highways and also caused rivers to swell. The monsoon season historically lasts from June to September. Nepal continues to recover from two large earthquake events that occurred on April 25 and May 12, that killed more than 9,000 people and left 22,000 others injured. Canada, Wildfires Dozens of wildfires continued to burn across many sections of Canada this week, as smoke tracked along the jet stream into parts of the United States. The fires, which were burning from the the Canada’s Northwest Territory to Manitoba, sent smoke plumes into the U.S. Midwest, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states on Monday and Tuesday. At least 50 fires were burning in Saskatchewan province alone as dry and hot conditions have set the stage for an active wildfire season. In 2014, the Canadian government spent nearly CAD300 million (USD240 million) on fighting wildfires – more than four times what was budgeted. It is expected that costs could be even higher in 2015. Spain, Heat Spain’s national agency reported this week that the country had its hottest May in at least 50 years in 2015. The country averaged temperatures of 18.6°C (65.5°F), which was the hottest since May 1964. Several cities broke record high temperatures during the month, including Murcia and Avila. In addition to the warm temperatures, the month was also highlighted by lower than average rainfall. Officials were concerned about the risk of forest fires during the rest of the summer months.


Weekly Cat Report 7

Current Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (°C)

Select Global Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies Location of Buoy Temp (°C) Departure from

Last Year (°C) Eastern Pacif ic Ocean (555 miles SW of San Salvador, El Salvador) 29.1 -0.1 Tropical Atlantic Ocean (1,590 miles ESE of Trinidad) 24.3 -1.2 Western Gulf of Mexico (60 miles SE of Corpus Christi, TX) 29.4 +2.1 Eastern Gulf of Mexico (130 miles ESE of Pensacola, FL) 28.1 +0.2 Carolinas Coastline (45 miles SE of Charleston, SC) 26.4 +0.2 Northeastern United States (15 miles SE of Portland, ME) N/A N/A

Sources: NOAA, NESDIS, National Data Buoy Center

El Niño Update El Niño conditions are present.

Positive equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean.

There is an approximately 90% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (Southern Hemisphere winter) this year, and a greater than 80% chance El Niño conditions will last through Northern Hemisphere autumn (Southern Hemisphere spring).

Source: Climate Prediction Center


Weekly Cat Report 8

Current Tropical Systems

Location and Intensity Information

* TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone ** N = North, S = South, E = East, W = West, NW = Northwest, NE = Northeast, SE = Southeast, SW = Southwest Sources: National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Name* Location Winds Center of Circulation Motion** TS Carlos 13.6° N, 100.4° W 40 mph 230 miles (370 kilometers) S of Acapulco, Mexico NW at 6 mph CY Ashobaa 20.8° N, 59.8° E 45 mph 135 kilometers (85 miles) ENE of Masirah Island W at 7 mph


Weekly Cat Report 9

Global Tropics Outlook



Weekly Cat Report 10

Earthquake Activity: June 5 – June 11

Significant EQ Location and Magnitude (≥M6.0) Information

Source: United States Geological Survey

Date Location Magnitude Depth Epicenter 6/4/2015 5.979°N 116.529°E 6.0 10.0 km 15 kilometers (9 miles) W of Ranau, Malaysia 6/8/2015 41.532°N 142.000°E 6.1 47.0 km 70 kilometers (43 miles) ENE of Mutsu, Japan 6/10/2015 22.411°S 68.330°W 6.0 126.6 km 57 kilometers (35 miles) NNW of San Pedro de Atacama, Chile



U.S. Weather Threat Outlook

Potential Threats A series of areas of low pressure will traverse from the southern Plains into the Midwest and Ohio

Valley from the weekend into the first half of next week. Given recent heavy rains and rising river levels, the forecast rain over the next week will bring heightened flood risks in many areas.

Building high pressure will allow temperatures to reach well above normal levels for portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic during the middle of next week. Heat indices will be above 100°F.

Severe drought conditions persist for most of the Western U.S. No significant rainfall is in the immediate forecast, as California remains in the midst of a historic drought.




Current U.S. Watches, Warnings and Advisories

Source: NOAA



Current U.S. River Flood Stage Status

Top 5 Rivers Currently Nearing or Exceeding Flood Stage

Source: United States Geological Survey

Location Flood Stage Current Stage % of Full Capacity Wabash River at Montezuma, Indiana 14.00 21.13 151% Wabash River at Lafayette, Indiana 11.00 16.41 149% Nueces River at Bluntzer, Texas 18.00 26.53 147% Kankakee River at Shelby, Indiana 9.00 12.40 138% Trinity River at Trinidad, Texas 33.00 44.19 134%



Source Information Severe thunderstorms sweep across the U.S.:

Chicago Tribune U.S. National Weather Service U.S. Storm Prediction Center

Up to 18 killed in Malaysia after EQ triggers rockslides:

After Sabah earthquake, expert says earthquake-resistant buildings needed in high risk zones, The Malay Mail Online Sabah quake strongest since 1976, The Malaysian Insider United States Geological Survey Earth Observatory of Singapore

Blanca makes landfall in Mexico; Ashobaa nears Oman:

U.S. National Hurricane Center Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Monsoon rains continue in China and India: Flood situation worsens in Assam; Brahmaputra flowing above flood stage, The Times of India Emergency operations numbers for flood opened, Assam Times China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs Assam State Disaster Management Authority

Natural Catastrophes: In Brief:

21 killed, dozens missing in Nepal’s landslides, Xinhua New s Agency Smoke from Canadian wildfires drifted more than 1,600 miles to the U.S., The Weather Channel Spain has its hottest May for 50 years, Xinhua New s Agency



Contact Information

Steve Bowen Associate Director (Meteorologist) Aon Benfield Analytics Impact Forecasting +1.312.381.5883 [email protected] Claire Kennedy Senior Analyst (Meteorologist) Aon Benfield Analytics Impact Forecasting +65.6645.0110 [email protected]

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About Aon Benfield

Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world’s leading reinsurance intermediary and full-service capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world’s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals’ expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright © by Impact Forecasting® No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting® has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting® does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting® summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting® and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting’s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright © by Aon plc.

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Weekly Cat Report - Catastrophe Insightcatastropheinsight.aonbenfield.com/Reports/20150612-1-cat-alert.pdf · 6/12/2015 · Weekly Cat Report June 12, 2015 . Aon Benfield Analytics

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