Weekly Cat Report June 12, 2020
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Weekly Cat Report June 12, 2020
Weekly Cat Report 2
This Week’s Natural Disaster Events
Event Impacted Areas FatalitiesDamaged Structures and/or Filed Claims
PreliminaryEconomic Loss (USD)*
Page
Tropical Storm Cristobal U.S., Central America 1+ 10,000+ 100s of millions 3
Tropical Storm Nisarga India 6 500,000+ 660+ Million 7
Severe Weather United States 0 Thousands Millions 9
Flooding China 20+ 2,800+ 570+ Million 13
Earthquake Iran 0 Unknown Unknown 13
Flooding Central Europe 2 Hundreds 10s of millions 13
*Please note that these estimates are preliminary and subject to change. In some instances, initial estimates may be significantly adjusted as losses develop over time. This data is provided as an initial view of the potential financial impact from a recently completed or ongoing event based on early available assessments.
Along with this report, we continue to welcome users to access current and historical natural catastrophe data and event analysis on Impact Forecasting’s Catastrophe Insight website: http://catastropheinsight.aon.com
Weekly Cat Report 3
Tropical Storm Cristobal affects Americas, U.S. Tropical Storm Cristobal had significant impacts on portions of Central America and eastern Mexico as it meandered inland across the Mexican states of Campeche and Yucatan between June 3-5, with hazards reaching well beyond the storms center. After tracking northward across the Gulf of Mexico, Cristobal made landfall along the U.S. Louisiana coast at 5:00 PM CDT (22:00 UTC) on June 7 as a Tropical Storm with maximum estimated winds of 50 mph (85 kph). Effects from Cristobal in the U.S. included high storm surge, heavy rainfall, flash-flooding, and severe weather. The greatest impacts occurred across Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. After landfall, Cristobal continued northward bringing flooding rains, gusty winds, and severe storms to portions of the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes - as far north as Wisconsin.
Meteorological Recap After a multi-day deluge across portions of Guatemala, Honduras and eastern Mexico, the center of Cristobal moved back over the waters of the Gulf of Mexico on June 5. The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional of Mexico reported significant 7-day rainfall totals across multiple states, with some of the greatest impacts occurring in Chiapas, Campeche and Yucatan. The 7-day rainfall total from a station in Ocotepec, Chiapas measured 836.8 millimeters (32.9 inches) between May 30 and June 5. Shortly before the center of Cristobal emerged into the Gulf of Mexico, the system strengthened to a Tropical Storm at 1:00 PM CDT (18:00 UTC) with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph).
In the Gulf, Cristobal remained on a relatively northward track heading toward the U.S. Louisiana coast. Despite relatively warm waters, unfavorable wind shear and significant dry air entrainment along with the broad and asymmetrical appearance of Cristobal acted to minimize intensification and organization. By June 6 Cristobal exhibited maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 kph). Tropical Storm Warnings were posted from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County lines, Florida; in addition to Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas (Louisiana), while a Storm Surge Warning was in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi as well as Lake Borgne (Louisiana), and a Storm Surge Watch was in effect from east of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Prior to landfall, Cristobal’s eastward side displayed the strongest wind gusts along with a broad shield of precipitation, including a plume of deep tropical moisture extending into Florida. During this time, portions of central and northern Florida received 6 to 8 inches (15.2 to 20.3 centimeters) of rainfall, with locally higher amounts.
By June 7, the storms overall appearance was marginally improved as Cristobal began to display several small curved convective bands, however the central core remained disorganized. Cristobal officially made landfall in the U.S. at 5:00 PM CDT (22:00 UTC) on June 7 along the southeast coast of Louisiana
Total rainfall (cm) from Cristobal (Amanda) between May 27–June 5 (Source: NASA)
Weekly Cat Report 4
between the mouth of the Mississippi River and Grand Isle as a Tropical Storm with maximum winds of 50 mph (85 kph) and gusts up to 64 mph (103 kph). Cristobal was the second earliest Louisiana landfall dating back to 1851.
The heaviest precipitation occurred east of the storms center across the coastal regions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida where average rainfall totals were between 6 and 8 inches (15.2 to 20.3 centimeters). A station in Mississippi (Jackson County) reported a storm total precipitation of 11.04 inches (28.1 centimeters). In Florida (Hamilton County) a 48-hour rainfall total of 10.60 inches (27.0 cent imeters) ending the afternoon of June 8 was reported. The Jacksonville International Airport (Florida) measured a 24-hour rainfall total of 4.40 inches (11.2 centimeters) between June 6 and 7, the highest 24-hour rainfall total since 2012. Maximum wind gusts in these regions ranged between 40 and 60 mph (65 to 96 kph). A wind gust of 64 mph (103 kph) was measured from Ship Island (Mississippi). Tidal gages near Waveland, Mississippi and Shell Beach, Louisiana both measured a storm surge exceeding 5 feet (1.5 meters). Maximum storm surges were enhanced by Cristobal’s deceleration as it approached the coast. Coastal regions were inundated spanning from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Florida Gulf Coast, leading to road closures, impacted structures, and downed trees and power lines.
Once inland, Cristobal tracked north-northwest before proceeding northward through the Mississippi Valley toward the Great Lakes and Wisconsin eventually advancing into central Ontario (Canada) by June 10. This trajectory was the result of the storm moving in the flow between a ridge to its east and a strong trough to the west. Flood watches and warnings were posted by the NWS extending from the Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf coasts along a northward axis predominantly adjacent to and east of the Mississippi River before heading into central Wisconsin. By June 9 severe weather associated with Cristobal was reported across northeastern Illinois and southern Michigan. A record lowest pressure for the month of June (988 millibars) was recorded in Madison, Wisconsin.
Event Details
Central America
Further heavy rain triggered by Cristobal, which fell on soils already largely saturated by Amanda, exacerbated the situation in Guatemala. Widespread flooding, landslides and mudslides resulted in additional losses on June 2-7. Three fatalities were recorded in Quiché, Quetzaltenango and El Progreso. According to an official report by the National Coordinator for Disaster Reduction (CONRED) as of June 7, combined effects of Amanda and Cristobal resulted in 956 homes with light, 961 with moderate and 35 with severe damage; while nearly 1,500 additional homes were at risk. Widespread landslides incurred losses on infrastructure, with at least 87 road sections affected and two bridges destroyed. Economic losses were expected to reach well into the millions USD. The events constitute a notable national emergency, as nearly half a million people were affected to a certain degree.
Tropical Storm Cristobal after landfall (Source: NASA)
Weekly Cat Report 5
In Mexico, Flood-related agricultural impacts cited to 230,000 crop acres in the state of Yucatan; losses estimated at MXN4.0 billion (USD185 million). Local authorities reported nearly 8,200 homes damaged or destroyed, along with notable effects on infrastructure, which have been estimated at MXN520 million (USD24 million).
United States
In Florida, the broad circulation of Cristobal brought multiple days of heavy rains and flash flooding, with isolated reported tornadoes. An EF-1 tornado confirmed in Orange County on June 6 caused notable damage as it passed through the highly urbanized region south and west of downtown Orlando. With maximum winds between 100 to 105 mph (160 to 169 kph) impacts to numerous structures occurred from uprooted trees, along with significant damage to roofing, windows, and vehicles. According to Orange County Fire Rescuer, at least 8 structures sustained heavy damage and 30 to 50 residents were displaced. Between June 6 and 7 there were 10 reports of tornadoes in the state. A notable flash flooding event occurred in portions of Jacksonville resulting from prolonged periods of heavy rainfall. Dangerous storm surges, exceeding 2.0 feet (0.6 meters) along the Florida Gulf Coast caused coastal flooding and road closures.
In Louisiana, rising flood waters resulted in 10 people being rescued and 19 others evacuated from cabins at Fontainebleau State Park (St. Tammany Parish). Nearby, roads in the town of Mandeville, adjacent to Lake Pontchartrain were inundated with floodwaters. In St. Bernard Parish, waters breached a levee at Delacroix Island. In Jefferson Parish, mandatory evacuations were ordered for residents of Grand Isle, a barrier island with a population of approximately 1,400. Later, the storm damaged and
Source: CONRED Guatemala
Flooding along Highway 90 in Biloxi, Mississippi (Source: MDOT)
Water rescue at Fontainebleau State Park, Louisiana (Source: Mandeville Fire/EMS)
Weekly Cat Report 6
destroyed protective sand dunes along a portion of Grand Isle. A State of Emergency was declared by the governor prior to landfall.
In Mississippi, a large section of U.S. Highway 90 was closed on June 7 due to flooding. The Lighthouse Pier in Biloxi as well as the Ken Combs Pier in Gulfport sustained damage during the storm. Preliminary data from the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) indicated that at least one home was affected in Jackson County, while one home and 10 business buildings experienced minor damage in Harrison County. The govenor delcared a State of Emergency on June 10 as initial damage assesments from Harrison and Hancock Counties alone excessed USD5 million.
In Alabama water and debris blocked portions of the main corridor on the west end of Dauphin Island, which was closed to the public.
Financial Loss Tropical Storm Cristobal caused significant impacts to infrastructure, property, and agriculture across Central America, Mexico, and the United States. Total economic losses are expected to reach in the hundreds of millions (USD). Preliminary data from Mexico estimates economic losses to be at least USD209 million. Losses are anticipated to rise as additional data becomes available.
Weekly Cat Report 7
Update: Cyclonic Storm Nisarga Cyclone Nisarga made landfall near Alibaug town in coastal Maharashtra on June 3, causing widespread damage in the Raigad district. Nisarga has claimed at least six lives and no fewer than 16 people were severely injured during the event. Government officials cited damaging impacts to more than 500,000 structures from strong winds, flash flooding, and other coastal inundation during the event. Total economic losses were tentatively estimated to surpass INR50 billion (USD660 million).
Event Details Cyclonic Storm Nisarga caused widespread damage in three districts – Raigad, Mumbai, and Pune; additional damage occurred in Thane, Palghar, Nasik and Sindhudurg districts of Maharashtra. Insignificant damage was reported from the neighboring states of Goa, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujrat, which were on high alert. According to the latest media and disaster management agency reports, Nisarga claimed at least six lives and no fewer than 16 people were severely injured. A total of 100,000 residents from Maharashtra and Gujrat were preemptively evacuated owing to preparedness measures, although the rescue and relocation efforts were severely hampered in these states due to the continuing emergency caused by COVID-19.
Nisarga left behind a trail of destruction by damaging crops, uprooting trees, damaging power lines and communication infrastructure along the Konkan coastline in Maharashtra where the storm passed with wind speeds reaching up to 100-120 kph (60-75 mph). According to initial reports by national disaster management officials and local media reports, Nisarga wreaked havoc in Raigad district. Strong winds gusting up to 130 kph (80 mph) were recorded in the Alibag area of Raigad, where Nisarga made landfall.
Storm surge of 1.5 to 2.5 meters (5 to 6 feet) was noted along the western coastal areas of Ratnagiri and Raigad districts, which resulted in inundation of several villages. According to media reports, at least 500,000 structures sustained severe damage in the Raigad district. A large number of tin roofs were blown off, while concrete structures largely survived in the affected Tehsils of Raigad, where winds were recorded to be the strongest. Nisarga caused damage to nearly 100,000 homes, of which nearly 5 percent were completely destroyed. More than 1,000 electricity poles, 2,000 transformers, and 500 mobile towers were destroyed, resulting in power outages that affected around 1 million residents across the 15 Tehsils of Raigad district. While electricity restoration work took more than 72 hours in some areas, it took up to a week in the severely affected regions. Communication and internet services were severely affected during the event. Nearly 100,000 trees were uprooted while damage to fishing boats and fish-farms was also noted. More than 8,000 hectares (20,000 acres) of crops were damaged in the wake of Nisarga.
Nisarga battered a significant area of Pune and Nasik districts, triggering intense rain spells and strong winds till late night, resulting in inundation of low lying areas. Initial damage reports suggest at least 500 homes in these districts were severely damaged or destroyed. Significant damage to the electrical, mobile and internet related infrastructure were also reported.
Tin roof destroyed by Nisarga (Source: Hindustan Times)
Weekly Cat Report 8
According to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), railway track and roads were obstructed by fallen trees, which resulted in blockages in the Mumbai metropolitan area – also known as the economic capital of India. Nearly 50 millimeters (2 inch) of rainfall resulted in heavy inundation in several areas of Mumbai, which caused disruption of vehicular traffic.
Financial Loss Nisarga became the second Cyclonic Strom originating in the Indian Ocean in 2020; however, when contrasted with the first one – Amphan, which wreaked havoc in the eastern coast of India and Bangladesh, Nisarga was relatively mild and less destructive in nature. Most of the severe damage was averted as Nisarga made landfall 100 kilometers south of the Mumbai city in Maharashtra. As of this writing, damage estimates by the government officials to horticulture, agriculture, and houses are still ongoing. According to the initial damage assessment reports, economic losses were estimated at INR50 billion (USD660 million); which is likely to increase as the damage assessment continues. Given low insurance take-up in India, significant proportion of these losses were likely to be uninsured.
Weekly Cat Report 9
Significant winds, severe weather affects the U.S. An anomalous upper level trough swept through the Western United States in association with a potent low-pressure system intensifying over the Canadian Prairies which set the stage for a multi-day severe weather outbreak spanning from the Central Rockies northeastward across portions of the Central and Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley between June 6-8. On June 6, a historic derecho event with the greatest impacts in Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota resulted in a record breaking number of significant (75+ mph, 120+ kph) wind gusts during a one-day period. A derecho is defined as a fast-moving cluster of thunderstorms that travels hundreds of miles and is marked by widespread straight-line wind damage. Severe storms associated with a powerful low-pressure system moving eastward across the Great Lakes on June 10 generated additional straight-line wind damage with the greatest impacts across portions of Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky.
Meteorological Recap
June 6
A warm and humid airmass anchored across the central portion of the country aided in providing increased instability for regions from the central Rockies to the Northern Plains on June 6. In the morning, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) indicated an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe weather in the Northern Plains, centered on northwestern Nebraska, and western South Dakota. A larger region of Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) spanned from the Four Corners north-northeastward toward the Canadian border. The severe weather was associated with a robust low-pressure system initially near the southwestern United States which proceeded lifting northeastward toward the Northern Plains.
Strong dynamics associated with this disturbance enhanced by northeastward advancing frontal boundaries, ample surface heating, and favorable wind shear created an environment conducive for the formation of severe thunderstorms.
These conditions led to a rare derecho event for the Western United States. The derecho began across Utah in the morning hours, around 9:00 AM MDT (15:00 UTC), and proceeded to produce severe wind reports for at least 12 hours as the storms advanced north-northeast throughout portions of Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota. The severity of the winds prompted the SPC to upgrade a region in western South Dakota to a Moderate Risk (level 4 out of 5) for severe weather as the derecho was approaching. Winds commonly exceeded 75 mph (120 kph) over a span of more than 750 miles (1,200 kilometers), with the highest recorded wind gust reaching 110 mph (177 kph) at the top of the Winter Park Ski Area in Grand County, Colorado. According to the SPC, June 6 now holds the record for most significant (75+ mph, 120+ kph) wind gust reports in a single day, with 47 reported significant wind gusts (44 of which were measured), the significant wind report records date back through 2004.
Weather Prediction Center
Rain/ThunderstormsRainMixed PrecipitationSnowSevere Thunderstorms PossibleHeavy Rain/Flash Flooding Possible
Weekly Cat Report 10
June 7
The main severe threat shifted northeastward on June 7, resulting from a continued highly amplified upper level flow, along with a stalling frontal boundary associated with the intensifying low-pressure system in the Canadian Prairies. The SPC highlighted a region across the central and eastern Dakotas spanning into northwestern Minnesota for an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe weather. Ahead of the frontal boundary, southerly flow and record to near record heat contributed to enhanced atmospheric instability. Discrete and supercell storms tracked near the North Dakota/Minnesota border and into southern Manitoba (Canada), while clusters and linear structures of thunderstorms, which initially developed in Nebraska and South Dakota,
pushed north-northeast during the evening and overnight hours. The main hazard associated with this event was straight-line winds, however large hailstones and brief tornadoes were also reported.
June 8
The low-pressure system and stalled cold frontal boundary was again a focal point for severe storm initiation on June 8. The greatest threat for severe weather was focused ahead of the cold front along an axis extending from central Nebraska northeastward through northern Minnesota and into extreme southeastern Manitoba and southwestern Ontario (Canada). In the evening hours, supercells building across Nebraska produced isolated tornadoes and significant hailstones.
June 10
A powerful low-pressure system which previously produced strong synoptic scale winds and blowing dust across the Central and High Plains, continued to progress northeastward toward the Midwest and Great Lakes on June 10. The SPC indicated a region across eastern Michigan, northeastern Indiana, and northwestern Ohio for a Moderate Risk (level 4 out of 5) for severe weather. A significantly humid and moist airmass was already in place, in part due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal. Throughout the afternoon discrete cells and storm clusters, some with bowing segments, organized into linear structures and squall lines ahead of an approaching cold front.
The main hazard associated with this event was strong straight-line winds, with the greatest impacts occurring in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky.
Weather Prediction Center
Rain/ThunderstormsRainMixed PrecipitationSnowSevere Thunderstorms PossibleHeavy Rain/Flash Flooding Possible
Weekly Cat Report 11
Event Details
June 6
With 47 reported significant wind gusts (44 of which were measured), data from the SPC indicates that June 6 recorded the most significant (75+ mph, 120+ kph) wind gusts in a single day. The derecho event was exceedingly rare for the Western United States as only two former well documented derecho events were recorded across the region (in 2002 and 1994). The image below follows the progression of the derecho based on hourly composite radar reflectivity and indicates locations of SPC severe wind reports. As of this writing, there were 367 reports of severe weather on June 6, of which 335 were for wind. Colorado was particularly impacted by this event, with the highest recorded wind gust of 110 mph (177 kph) measured at the top of the Winter Park Ski Area in Grand County, Colorado. In Denver billboards were toppled, while a 78 mph (125 kph) gust was measured near Denver International Airport. The storms caused extensive reports of uprooted trees and downed power lines, which knocked out power to nearly 100,000 customers. Wind gusts of 94 mph (151 kph) were recorded in Butte and Dewey Counties (South Dakota). Wind gusts of 75 mph (120 kph) or greater were reported in Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Roofing and exterior damage to structures and outbuildings were commonly noted with this event.
June 7
There were 188 reports of severe weather on June 7, of which 106 were for wind. The greatest impacts occurred across portions of Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota. In South Dakota, a wind gust of 95 mph (153 kph) was reported in Todd County, and an 80 mph (128 kph) gust measured in Brown County - which caused noted damage to trees and outbuildings. Three brief EF-1 tornadoes were confirmed in Hyde and Faulk Counties, resulting in minor exterior damage to a home, and well as multiple damaged outbuildings, and uprooted trees. In North Dakota, straight-line winds approaching 80 mph (128
Hourly Mosaic Radar ReflectivityJune 6 15:00 UTC - June 7 5:00 UTC
!
!
!!!
!
!!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
! !
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!!
!!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!! !
!
!!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
! !
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
! !
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Severe Wind ReportsJune 6 12:00 UTC - June 7 11:59 UTC
Data: NOAAGraphic: Impact Forecasting (Cat Insight)
Weekly Cat Report 12
kph) led to roofing damage near the town of Larimore. In Nebraska, hailstones of 2.0 inches (5.1 centimeters) and larger were reported in Custer and Cherry Counties.
June 8
In Minnesota, Hailstones approaching 3.0 inches (7.6 centimeters) were reported in Kittson County. In Nebraska, hail the size of grapefruits, 4.25 inches (10.8 centimeters) were observed in Rock County.
June 10
As of this writing, there were 389 reports of severe weather on June 10, of which 366 were for wind - with maximum gusts approaching and exceeding 75 mph (120 kph). A wind gust of 80 mph (128 kph) was measured in Miami County (Indiana). The storms resulted in numerous reports of minor exterior and roofing damage to homes, along with major damage to outbuilding, crop damage, downed power lines, and uprooted trees. The State Theater in Sandusky, Ohio partially collapsed during the storms, likely due to strong straight-line winds. Damage assessments are currently ongoing.
Financial Loss The latest wave of severe weather between June 6-8 and June 10 is anticipated to result in a financial cost reaching well into the millions (USD). Given that a majority of the damage was wind related, it is likely that many of these costs will be covered by insurance. Further damage assessments are currently ongoing.
Damage to the State Theater in Sandusky, Ohio (Source: City of Sandusky)
Weekly Cat Report 13
Natural Catastrophes: In Brief Flooding (China) Torrential rains prompted flash floods and landslides in 12 provinces of southern and central China on June 1–9, claiming no fewer than 20 lives and causing widespread damage. According to the local media reports and officials, heavy floods have affected over 2.6 million residents of Hunan, Jiangxi, and Guangxi – the three worst affected provinces due to flooding, while nearly 230,000 people were evacuated to safer places during the event. Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region in southern China was among the worst hit regions where at least six people have died and nearly 1.5 million people were directly affected during the event. Provinces in southern China were severely affected with accumulated precipitation ranging between 100 to 300 millimeters (4 to 12 inches). Thousands of homes sustained damage, of which at least 1,300 homes were destroyed. Nearly 113,500 hectares of crops (280,500 acres) were affected so far. According to the Ministry of Emergency Management, torrential rains caused 150 rivers in eight provinces to swell above the danger mark. Flooding and landslides were also reported in Hong Kong. The direct economic losses were estimated at minimally CNY4 billion (USD570 million).
Earthquake (Iran) A magnitude-5.7 earthquake hit Beiram region in Fars province of Iran on 9 June at 17:18 UTC. The epicenter was located approximately 6 kilometers (3.7 miles) southeast of the Chahtous. No casualties were reported at the time of this writing. According to the local media reports, damage to at least 80 homes was noted, however, the impacts were largely limited to cracks and fallen indoor contents. Event induced power outages affecting the almost 10,000 residents, mostly in Fars province. Damage assessment is ongoing, and officials continue to investigate the financial cost; however, the economic losses were expected to be insignificant.
Flooding (Central Europe) Strong thunderstorms affected parts of Central Europe on June 7. Two people were killed in the Czech Republic as local streams burst their banks in Uničov and Šumperk regions after a period of extremely intense rainfall. One of the worst affected municipalities was Šumvald, where the raging torrent claimed one life and resulted in notable property losses. Local officials tentatively estimated that economic losses might reach as high as CZK750 million (USD32 million). Local insurers began received hundreds of claims shortly after the event. As of June 9, insured losses were preliminarily estimated at CZK75 million (USD3.2 million). Violent storms also affected parts of Austria; the most affected was the federal state of Niederösterreich, particularly districts Amstetten, Melk, St. Pölten, Horn, Zwettl and Waidhofen an der Thaya. Hundreds of basements were flooded as intense rain overwhelmed the drainage infrastructure. The agricultural sector noted losses of about EUR2.0 million (USD2.3 million), with significant impacts in districts Melk, St. Pölten and Horn. At least 98 homes and 33 other structures were damaged in Poland; emergency services responded to more than 1,000 weather-related incidents, mostly due to strong winds in Podkarpackie, Mazovia, Silesia and elsewhere. Village of Kaniów in Silesia was hit by a short-lasting tornado and damaged at least 23 structures
Weekly Cat Report 14
Global Temperature Anomaly Forecast
Source: Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA
Weekly Cat Report 15
Global Precipitation Forecast
Source: Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA
Weekly Cat Report 16
Weekly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies (°C)
The SST anomalies are produced by subtracting the long-term mean SST (for that location in that time of year) from the current value. This product with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree (50 kilometers) is based on NOAA/NESDIS operational daily global 5 kilometer Geo-polar Blended Night-only SST Analysis. The analysis uses satellite data produced by AVHRR radiometer.
Select Current Global SSTs and Anomalies Location of Buoy Temp (°C) Departure from Last Year (°C)
Eastern Pacific Ocean (1,020 miles SW of San Salvador, El Salvador) 22.60 -0.68
Niño3.4 region (2°N latitude, 155°W longitude) 23.75 -2.40
Western Pacific Ocean (700 miles NNW of Honiara, Solomon Islands) 30.20 +0.27
Sources: ESRL, NOAA, NEIS, National Data Buoy Center
Weekly Cat Report 17
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present. NOAA notes that there is a roughly 65 percent chance of neutral conditions lingering through the Northern Hemisphere (boreal) summer months. The agency further states that a decreasing chance (lowering to 45 to 50 percent) into the boreal autumn.
El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures (+0.5°C) that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle. La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures (-0.5°C) across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle. El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but some prolonged events may last for years. While their frequency can be quite irregular, El Niño and La Niña events occur on average every two to seven years. Typically, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña. ENSO-neutral refers to those periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present. These periods often coincide with the transition between El Niño and La Niña events. During ENSO-neutral periods the ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are near the long-term average. El Niño (La Niña) is a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a five consecutive 3-month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region that is above the threshold of +0.5°C (-0.5°C). This standard of measure is known as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).
Weekly Cat Report 18
Global Tropics Outlook
Source: Climate Prediction Center
Weekly Cat Report 19
Current Tropical Systems
Location and Intensity Information Name* Location Winds Storm Reference from Land Motion**
* TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone ** N = North, S = South, E = East, W = West, NW = Northwest, NE = Northeast, SE = Southeast, SW = Southwest
Sources: National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Weekly Cat Report 20
Global Earthquake Activity (≥M4.0): June 5 – 11
Significant EQ Location and Magnitude (≥M6.0) Information Date (UTC) Location Magnitude Depth Epicenter
6/10/2020 15.8°S, 13.1°W 6 10 km Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
Source: United States Geological Survey
Weekly Cat Report 21
U.S. Weather Threat Outlook
Potential Threats A nearly stationary upper level low is anticipated to spin in the southeastern United States
bringing several days of locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states between June 14-17.
Much above normal temperatures are expected across the Central Plains starting June 14 and expanding northeastward to include the Midwest by June 16-18, as ridging builds back into the central United States.
Flooding is occurring or imminent across portions of the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes where recent heavy rains associated with Tropical Storm Cristobal fell on already saturated soils.
Severe drought is ongoing across regions in the western Central and Southern plains due to prolonged periods with minimal precipitation, gusty winds, and above normal temperatures resulting in very high evaporation rates.
Weekly Cat Report 22
U.S. Wildfire: Significant Fire Risk Outlook & Activity The National Interagency Fire Center has highlighted an extended risk of elevated wildfire conditions across parts of the Desert Southwest, Plains, Southeast, and Midwest through the end of May into early June.
Annual YTD Wildfire Comparison: June 11* Year Number of Fires Acres Burned Acres Burned Per Fire
2016 21,739 1,797,137 82.67
2017 26,333 2,393,021 90.88
2018 25,437 1,845,444 72.55
2019 16,516 360,227 21.81
2020 20,351 570,420 28.03
10-Year Average (2010-2019) 23,543 1,366,968 58.06
*Last available update from NIFC Source: National Interagency Fire Center
Top 5 Most Acres Burned by State: June 11 State Number of Fires Acres Burned Acres Burned Per Fire
Oklahoma 526 74,815 142.23
Texas 1,272 51,609 40.57
Florida 1,567 51,435 32.82
Arizona 695 48,918 70.39
Kansas 34 21,796 641.06
Source: National Interagency Fire Center
Weekly Cat Report 23
Current U.S. Streamflow Status
A ≥99th percentile indicates that estimated streamflow is greater than the 99th percentile for all days of the year. This methodology also applies for the other two categories. A steam in a state of severe drought has 7-day average streamflow of less than or equal to the 5th percentile for this day of the year. Moderate drought indicates that estimated 7-day streamflow is between the 6th and 9th percentile for this day of the year and ‘below normal’ state is between 10th and 24th percentile.
Top 5 Rivers Currently Nearing or Exceeding Flood Stage Location Current Stage (ft) Flood Percentile
Santee River near Jamestown, South Carolina 14.22 142%
Black River at Black Rock, Arkansas 19,16 137%
Illinois River at Beardstown, Illinois 19.06 136%
Firesteel Creek near Mt. Vernon, South Dakota 10.59 132%
James River near Columbia, South Dakota 16.82 129%
Source: United States Geological Survey
Weekly Cat Report 24
Source Information Tropical Storm Cristobal affects Americas, U.S. U.S National Weather Service U.S Storm Prediction Center U.S National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Cristobal makes landfall in Southeast Louisiana with dangerous coastal and inland flooding, Washington Post St. Bernard Parish Government St. Tammany Parish Government Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) CONRED, Guatemala
Update: Cyclonic Storm Nisarga India Meteorological Department Cyclone Nisarga: Crops on 8,000 hectares destroyed in Maharashtra, Hindustan Times Cyclone Nisarga: Three days on, rescuers finally reach landfall site Shrivardhan, Hindustan Times Cyclone Nisarga live updates, Times of India
Significant winds, severe weather affects the U.S. U.S National Weather Service U.S Storm Prediction Center ‘Exceedingly rare’ derecho raked parts of western U.S. with winds over 100 mph Saturday, The Washington Post
Natural Catastrophes: In Brief The consequences of the flood are being addressed by 160 firefighters. České Noviny The big cleanup has started. ORF Over a thousand interventions, two people injured. The effects of heavy weather. TVN China Focus: Over 20 dead, missing in south China rainstorms, Xinhua Austrian Hail Insurance Ministry of Emergency Management, China European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations United States Geological Survey
Weekly Cat Report 25
Contact Information Steve Bowen Director & Meteorologist Head of Catastrophe Insight Impact Forecasting Aon [email protected] Michal Lörinc Senior Catastrophe Analyst Impact Forecasting Aon [email protected]
Weekly Cat Report 26
About Aon
Aon plc (NYSE:AON) is a leading global professional services firm providing a broad range of risk, retirement and health solutions. Our 50,000 colleagues in 120 countries empower results for clients by using proprietary data and analytics to deliver insights that reduce volatility and improve performance.
© Aon plc 2019. All rights reserved. The information contained herein and the statements expressed are of a general nature and are not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information and use sources we consider reliable, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.
Copyright © by Impact Forecasting®
No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting® has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting® does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances.
Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting® summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting® and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting’s webpage at impactforecasting.com.
Copyright © by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting® is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc.
Related Documents
