VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast 2011-2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 1Cisco Confidential 1© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast Update; 2011–2016

May 2012Under Embargo Until May 30, 2012

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 2

Service Adoption Forecast

Cisco VNI Forecasts are complementary and statistically aligned.

Fixed & Mobile IP Traffic Forecast

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI)Global Service Adoption & IP Traffic Growth

ResidentialMobileBusiness


Establishing the Zettabyte Era

• By 2016, global IP traffic will reach an annual run rate of 1.3 zettabytes per year

• 1.3 zettabytes is equal to:

• 10X more than all IP traffic generated in 2008 (121 exabytes)

• 38 million DVDs per hour

What is a zettabyte?• One trillion gigabytes• Approximately 1021

(1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes)

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016


94 EBper mo

31 EBper mo

Establishing the Zettabyte EraGlobal IP traffic will increase 4X from 2011 to 2016

110 EBper mo

77 EBper mo

59 EBper mo

44 EBper mo


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers, 2011–2016


More Devices

More Internet Users

Faster Broadband Speeds

More Rich Media Content

Growth Catalysts

Nearly 19 Billion Connections 4-Fold Speed Increase

3.4 Billion Internet Users 1.2 Million Video Minutes/Second


North America

2.9 Billion by 2016CAGR 14.1%

Western Europe


Central/Eastern Europe


Latin America


Middle East & Africa


Asia Pacific



Global Device GrowthBy 2016, There Will Be nearly 19B Network Connections


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160.0

500,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,500,000.0

2,000,000.0

2,500,000.0

3,000,000.0

3,500,000.0

4,000,000.0N

um

be

r o

f D

ev

ice

s (

B)

372M

IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices By 2016, 3.57B Fixed Devices Will Be IPv6-Capable; 40.8% of All Fixed Devices

3.57B

57.2% CAGR 2011–2016



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices

4.03B

Nu

mb

er o

f D

evic

es (

B)

IPv6-Capable Fixed and Mobile Devices By 2016, 7.6B Fixed & Mobile Devices Will Be IPv6-Capable; 40.3% of All Fixed & Mobile Devices

49% CAGR 2011–2016

372M

3.57B

662M



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160.0

500,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,500,000.0

2,000,000.0

2,500,000.0

3,000,000.0

3,500,000.0

4,000,000.0

IPv6-Capable Fixed Business Devices IPv6-Capable Fixed Consumer Devices

2.45B

Nu

mb

er o

f D

evic

es (

B)

IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices By 2016, 2.45B Fixed Consumer Devices Will Be IPv6-Capable; 1.12B Fixed Business Devices Will Be IPv6-Capable

65.2% CAGR

91M

1.12B

281M


54.2% CAGR

57.2% CAGR 2011–2016


North America

269 Million by 2016CAGR 1.6%

Western Europe




Latin America




Asia Pacific


Global Internet Users GrowthBy 2016, There Will Be 3.4B Internet Users



Consumer Broadband Devices 2011 Fixed Traffic Generation Comparisons By Device

=

=

Tablet

Internet-Enabled 3DTV

Internet-Enabled HDTV

64-bit Laptop/PC

Gaming Consoles

1.2 X (monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)

= 4.1 X (monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)



3.4 X (monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)



North America

3.5-Fold growth11 to 37 Mbps

Western Europe




Latin America

2.8-Fold growth4.2 to 12 Mbps


2.5-Fold growth3.4 to 8.4 Mbps

Asia Pacific

4.4-Fold growth8.1 to 36 Mbps


Global Broadband Speed AccelerationAvg. Broadband Speed Will Increase Almost 4X; From 9 to 34 Mbps


10 Mbps

44% of all broadband connections by 2016

5 Mbps


Faster Networks Enable More Experiences


2 Online Video (HD Streams)

1 SD Business Videoconference

1 Online music stream

3 Online Video (HD Streams)

1 Business Desktop Conference call

4 Online music streams

1 Online Gaming stream


10 Mbps


5 Mbps



100 Mbps

Faster Networks Enable Better Experiences


20 minutes 2 minutes

Online Video (HD movie download)

41 minutes

Online Video (HD movie download) Online Video (HD movie download)


VNI Service Adoption ForecastResidential: Global TAM/Devices & Service Rankings


Fastest Growing Residential Services

TAM and Devices for Residential Market

Highest Penetrated Residential Service

TV Households2011: 1.7 Billion 2016: 1.9 Billion

Residential Internet Users2011: 1.7 Billion2016: 2.3 Billion

Devices/Connections2011: 2.4 Billion 2016: 5.4 Billion

Digital TV―13.8% CAGR2011: 694 Million 2016: 1.3 Billion

VoIP―10.6% CAGR2011: 560 Million2016: 928 Million

Online Music2011: 1.1 Billion63% of Internet Users

2016: 1.8 Billion79% of Internet Users


VNI Service Adoption ForecastConsumer Mobile: Global TAM/Devices & Service Rankings


Fastest Growing Consumer Mobile Services

TAM and Devices for Consumer Mobile Market

Highest Penetrated Consumer Mobile Services

Mobile Consumers2011: 3.7 Billion 2016: 4.5 Billion


Mobile Video―42.9% CAGR2011: 271 Million 2016: 1.6 Billion

Mobile Service Demand Globally, consumer mobile segment has 7 of 9 services with CAGRs exceeding 20% from 2011 to 2016.

SMS (Texting)2011: 2.8 Billion74% of Internet Users

2016: 4.1 Billion60% of Internet Users

Mobile Service MaturitySMS has the lowest CAGR (8.3 %) in the consumer mobile service category.


VNI Service Adoption ForecastBusiness: Global TAM/Devices & Service Rankings


Fastest Growing Business Services

TAM and Devices for Business Market

Highest Penetrated Business Services

Business Internet Users2011: 1.6 Billion 2016: 2.3 Billion

Business Mobile Users2011: 483 Million 2016: 569 Million


Desktop Video―43.2% CAGR2011: 36 Million 2016: 219 Million

LBS*―42.9% CAGR2011: 27 Million 2016: 158 Million

Instant Messaging (IM)2011: 470 Million30% of Business Internet Users

2016: 745 Million32% of Business Internet Users

SMS (texting)2011: 364 Million75% of Business Mobile Users

2016: 498 Million88% of Business Mobile Users

* LBS=Location Based Services


2016

32.3 GB Traffic/month

2011


50 GB Traffic/month

Future

Average Internet User; Traffic per Month


3 Online HD movie videos13 VoD episodes

6 HD Desktop video conferencing calls

122 Online music tracks

2 3D Online HD movie videos8 Online HD movie videos 38 VoD episodes



2 Online 3D movie videos11 Online HD movie videos53 VoD episodes




2016


2011


100 GB Traffic/month

Future

Average Internet Household; Traffic per Month


7 Online HD movie videos30 VoD episodes



4 3D movies20 HD movies 95 VoD episodes



6 3D movies23 HD movies114 VoD episodes




North America

27.5 EB/Month by 201622% CAGR, 3X Growth

Western Europe




Latin America




Asia Pacific



Global IP Traffic Growth, 2011–2016Regional Traffic Contributions In The Zettabyte Era


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

Non-PC Based Traffic

PC-Based Traffic

Pet

abyt

es p

er M

on

th

Global IP Traffic Growth by Device TypeNon-PC Devices to Account for 31% in 2016

69%

22%

78%


29% CAGR 2011–2016

31%


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

Mobile Data (78% CAGR)

Fixed/Wired (20% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-fi (34% CAGR)

Pe

tab

yte

s p

er

Mo

nth

Global IP Traffic by Local Access TechnologyBy 2016, Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic Surpasses Fixed/Wired Traffic

39%

51%

10%

29% CAGR 2011–2016



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

Business

Consumer

Pet

abyt

es /

Mo

nth

Global IP Traffic Growth by User SegmentConsumer CAGR 30%; Business CAGR 22% (2011 to 2016)

12%

88%

16%

84%


29% CAGR 2010–2015


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

10,000,000,000

20,000,000,000

30,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

50,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

70,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

90,000,000,000

VoIP

Online Gaming

File Sharing

Web/Data

Internet Video

Pe

tab

yte

s p

er

Mo

nth

Global Consumer Internet Traffic / ApplicationsInternet Video Dominates Consumer Internet Traffic

Online Gaming and VoIP forecast to be 0.73% of all consumer Internet traffic in 2016

22%

23%

54%


29% CAGR 2011–2016


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

5,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

15,000,000,000

20,000,000,000

25,000,000,000

30,000,000,000

35,000,000,000

40,000,000,000Video CallingAmbient Video and Internet PVRInternet-Video-to-PC: LiveMobile VideoInternet-Video-to-PC: Short FormInternet-Video-to-TVInternet-Video-to-PC: Long Form

Pe

tab

yte

s p

er

Mo

nth

Consumer Internet Video CompositionVideo Traffic Increasingly Driven By Long-Form Video

8%

11%

37%

8%

14%

14%


8%


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

2,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

12,000,000,000

14,000,000,000

Business Mobile Data

Business Managed IP *

Business Internet *

Pet

abyt

es p

er M

on

th

Global Business IP Traffic Growth / Segment The Internet Is The Major Component Of Business IP Traffic

27%

54%

* Video conferencing is included in both the Business Internet and Managed IP categories Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016

22% CAGR 2011–2016

19%


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

Video Phones

Executive Video Conferencing

Multiscreen Room Video Conferencing

Desktop Video Conferencing

Singlescreen Room Video Conferencing

Web Conferencing with Video

Pet

abyt

es p

er M

on

th

Global Business Video Conferencing DetailWeb Video Conferencing Leads Collaborative Apps

18%

61%

Multiscreen/Executive Videoconferencing and Videophones will be 1.4 % of all business video traffic in 2015

19%


42% CAGR 2011–2016


Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016Key Takeaways / Summary

Total IP Traffic 110 Exabytes per month by 2016

By 2016, annual global IP traffic will reach 1.3 zettabyte

Fixed Internet 80.6 Exabytes per month by 2016

Managed IP 18.1 Exabytes per month by 2016

By 2016, 1.2 M video minutes cross the network each second

Business IP video conferencing will grow 6-fold from 2011-2016

Mobile Data

Mobile video will increase 18-fold from 2011 to 2016

10.8 Exabytes per month by 2016



Cisco VNI Web Sites

• Press Releases

• White Papers / FAQs

• Cisco VNI Web-based Tools / Free Apps

IP Traffic Forecast inquiries: [email protected] Service Adoption Forecast inquiries: [email protected]


IP Traffic Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vni Service Adoption Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vnisa


Thank you.


Cisco VNI Service Adoption ForecastMajor Device/Connection Milestones (2011 – 2016)

• In 2011, there were 2.4B residential devices and connections; by 2016, there will be 5.4B residential devices and connections (17.3% CAGR).

• In 2011, there were 5.6B consumer mobile devices and connections; by 2016, there will be 8.4B consumer mobile devices and connections (8.3% CAGR).

• In 2011, there were 2.2B business devices and connections; by 2016, there will be 5.1B business devices and connections (18% CAGR).



Cisco VNI Service Adoption ForecastKey Service Trends (2011 – 2016)

• Digital TV will be the fastest growing service across all residential service categories (TV & Internet) from 2011 to 2016 (13.8% CAGR).

• Mobile video will be the fastest growing consumer mobile service from 2011 to 2016. (42.9% CAGR).

• Desktop video conferencing will be the fastest growing service across all business service categories (mobile & fixed) from 2011 to 2016 (43.2% CAGR).



Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic ForecastMajor Milestones• In 2011, the average Internet user generated 12 GB/mo;

by 2016, the average Internet user will generate 30 GB/mo.

• By 2016, more than one-third of total IP traffic will come from devices other than PCs.

• By 2016, wi-fi will account for nearly half of all IP traffic.

• By 2016, the gigabyte equivalent of all movies ever made will cross global IP networks every 3 minutes.


VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast 2011-2016

Documents

hd movie download

middle east

total ip traffic

4b residential

business internet

internet users

hd streams

mobile video