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© 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast_2010
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Highlights IP Traffic Forecast 2009–2014 Mobile Data Traffic Forecast 2010-2015
Mary Brown Director, Technology and Spectrum Policy Cisco Government Affairs March 18, 2011
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The Cisco VNI Global Forecast methodology relies upon various independent analyst forecasts as well as fixed and mobile data usage surveys.
Region/country data modeling with consumer/business usage trends.
Global Usage Trends Global Forecast Data
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership
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Cisco VNI Forecast Update Summary / Key Highlights
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast, 2009–2014; Global Mobile Data Forecast 2010-2015
Total IP Traffic 63.9 Exabytes per month by 2014
§ Annual global IP traffic will reach 3/4 of a zettabyte by 2014
Internet 47.2 Exabytes per month by 2014
Managed IP 13.2 Exabytes per month by 2014
§ Internet video will surpass P2P as top traffic type by end of 2010
§ Web-based video conferencing will grow 180-fold from 2009-2014
Mobile Data § By 2015, nearly two-thirds of the mobile data traffic will be video
6.4 Exabytes per month by 2015
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Exab
ytes
/mo Tr
illio
ns
14.7 EB/mo
Global IP Traffic Growth IP traffic will increase 4.3 fold from 2009–2014 In 2014, global IP traffic will reach 3/4 of a zettabyte
34% CAGR 2009–2014
63.9 EB/mo
© 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 4
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast, 2009–2014
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Global Consumer Internet Traffic Growth Video replaces P2P as top traffic type in 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Exab
ytes
/mo
Online Gaming Video Calling VoIP Web and Data File Sharing Internet-Video-to-TV Internet Video
36% CAGR 2009–2014
46%
10%
27%
15%
© 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 5
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast, 2009–2014
* VoIP, Online Gaming, and Video Calling contribute 1% or less in 2014.
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tera
byte
s / M
onth
Central & Eastern Europe (#7) Middle East & Africa (#6) Latin America (#5) Japan (#4) North America (#3) Western Europe (#2) Asia Pacific (#1)
26.3%
29.3%
15.7%
7.8% 6.2% 5.5%
9.2%
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
83% CAGR 2010–2015
Global Mobile Traffic Growth/Regions MEA has highest growth rate 129% APAC will generate 1/3 mobile data traffic by 2015
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Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
US Mobile Data Traffic Growth/Top Line US Mobile Data Traffic will increase 21X 2010-2015
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tera
byte
s pe
r Mon
th
627 PB per mo
45 PB per mo
915 PB per mo
83% CAGR 2010–2015
386 PB per mo
217 PB per mo
108 PB per mo
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0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Peta
byte
s pe
r Mon
th
Mobile VoIP Mobile Gaming Mobile M2M Mobile P2P Mobile Web/Data Mobile Video
Mobile Gaming and VoIP forecasted to be 1.2% of all mobile data traffic in 2015
3.9%
29.0%
62.4%
3.4%
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
83% CAGR 2010–2015
US Mobile Data Traffic Growth/Applications Video already half of mobile data traffic in US
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Public Cisco VNI Web Site URL: http://www.cisco.com/go/vni
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast, 2009–2014
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