CHRIS J. VARGO, LEI GUO, DR. MAXWELL MCCOMBS AND DR. DONALD LEWIS SHAW Network Issue Agendas On Twitter During e 2012 U.S. Presidential Election
Vargo, Guo, McCombs & Shaw - Network Issue Agendas on Twitter during the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election
Nov 11, 2014
This study finds support for agenda melding and further validates the Network Agenda Setting (NAS) model through a series of computer science methods with large datasets on Twitter. The results demonstrate that during the 2012 U.S. presidential election, distinctive audiences “melded” agendas of various media differently. “Vertical” media best predicted Obama supporters’ agendas on Twitter whereas Romney supporters were best explained by Republican “horizontal” media. Moreover, Obama and Romney supporters relied on their politically affiliated horizontal media more than their opposing party’s media. Evidence for findings are provided through the NAS model, which measures the agenda-setting effect not in terms of issue frequency alone, but also in terms of the interconnections and relationships issues inside of an agenda.
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CHRIS J. VARGO, LEI GUO, DR. MAXWELL MCCOMBS AND DR. DONALD LEWIS SHAW
Network Issue Agendas On Twitter During e 2012 U.S. Presidential Election
AGENDA SETTING, LEVEL 1
Time1/Media Time2/Public
Economy
Equality
Drugs
War
Economy
Equality
Drugs
War
NETWORK AGENDA SETTING MODEL
¢ e salience of network relationships among objects/attributes can be transferred from one agenda to another. � McCombs’ new book designates this the “3rd level of
agenda-setting theory.”
¢ News media not only tell us what to think about and how to think, they might also be capable of telling us what and how to associate.
Economy
Federal Programs
Foreign Policies
Indiv. Liberties
Immigration
Economy
Federal Programs
Foreign Policies
Indiv. Liberties
Immigration
Media issue agenda network
Public issue agenda network
TEST GROUPS: MEDIA (AGENDAMELDING)
¢ CBS, NBC, CNN, PBS.. ¢ USA Today, NYT, WSJ, US Weekly.. ¢ Denver Post, Pittsburgh Post Gazette..
General Public
Horizontal Media
(Democratic)
Specific Public Vertical
Media
¢ MSNBC, Hosts & Talk Shows ¢ Hardball, Maddow, John
Stewart, Anderson Cooper..
Horizontal Media
(Republican)
Specific Public
¢ FoxNews, Hosts & Talk Shows ¢ Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck,
O’Reilly, Hannity..
TEST GROUPS: CANDIDATE SUPPORTERS
¢ Users that Tweeted <12 times about one candidate, and not another were subjected to a sentiment analysis
¢ Average sentiment was calculated for each user ¢ Average was subjected to a one-way t-test to see if sentiment
was significantly greater than 0 at the .10 level � DF = 1 - # of Tweets broadcasted about candidate
¢ 2,875 Obama supporters found ¢ 2,457 Romney supporters found
H1: QAP CORR. & VERTICAL MEDIA ¢ From the networked perspective
suggested by the NAS model, we examined agendamelding by investigating the correlations between candidate supporters and vertical media during the 2012 election.
¢ We hypothesized that the network issue agenda of (a) Obama supporters and (b) Romney supporters was positively correlated with the vertical media’s network issue agenda.
H2: QAP CORR. & HORIZONTAL MEDIA ¢ As agendamelding theory
states, we also expected candidate supporters to correlate with horizontal media.
¢ Speci"cally, we assume that the network issue agenda of (a) Obama supporters and (b) Romney supporters is positively correlated with the network issue agenda of horizontal media.
Obama & Romney
Supporters
Horizontal Democratic
Horizontal Republican
Vertical Media
Horizontal Media
Republican Specific Public
H3: VERTICAL OVER HORIZONTAL
¢ According to the "ndings in the 2008 study, we hypothesize that vertical media will offer more explanatory power for the network issue agendas of (a) Obama supporters and (b) Romney supporters than horizontal media.
Democratic Specific
Public
Republican Horizontal
Media
Democratic Horizontal
Media
H4: “TENDING TO THEIR OWN” MEDIA ¢ We expected to see
Republican horizontal media offer more explanatory power for the network issue agendas of Romney supporters.
¢ Likewise, we expected the network issue agendas of Obama supporters as better explained by Democratic horizontal media than by Republican horizontal media.
METHOD-NETWORK ANALYSIS
¢ Step 1: Create a matrix for each group
A. Economy B. Foreign Policy C. Individual Liberties D. Federal Programs E. Immigration F. Education G. Environment H. Big Government
METHOD-NETWORK ANALYSIS ¢ Hypotheses 1 & 2:
� Step 2: Conduct QAP correlations (H1/H2) � Step 3: Compare QAP correlations to see which
media predicted supporters the best (H1/H2)
� Step 4: Create degree centrality scores for every possible issue combination (H3/H4)
¢ Hypotheses 3 & 4: � Step 5: Preform linear regression to see if centrality
measures of one issue combination could predict the others.
� Step 6: Compare regression models and see which media predicted supporters the best.
RESULTS H1: VERTICAL MEDIA ¢ Network issue agenda of Obama supporters was
positively correlated with the vertical media’s network issue agenda � 15 out of the 17 weeks analyzed. � QAP correlation coefficients: .54 to .91 � Median of .72.
¢ Network issue agenda of Romney supporters was signi"cantly correlated with the vertical media’s network issue agenda � 13 out of the 17 weeks analyzed. � QAP correlation coefficients: .44 to .88 � Median value of .77.
¢ Considerable support for H1
RESULTS H2: HORIZONTAL MEDIA ¢ Network issue agenda of Romney
supporters was positively correlated with Republican horizontal media � 13 out of 17 weeks � QAP correlation coefficients
during that period ranging from .50 to .85. e median is .74.
¢ Network issue agenda of Obama supporters and that of the Democratic horizontal media were signi"cantly correlated � 14 out of 17 weeks. � QAP correlation coefficients range from .56 to .
86, and the median is .72. ¢ Considerable support for H2.
Obama & Romney
Supporters
Horizontal Democratic
Horizontal Republican
H3 RESULTS ¢ For Obama, the vertical media offered the
highest explanatory power � Highest r2 value for six of the eight issues analyzed. � e averaged r2 value across all eight issues suggests
that the vertical media were the most explanatory, an increase of .20 r2 over the Democratic horizontal media.
¢ For Romney, horizontal media offered the highest explanatory power. � For the other seven issues, the compatible
(Republican) horizontal media were more explanatory.
� Averaged r2 value across all eight issues also suggests the Republican horizontal media was the most explanatory, an increase of .20 r2 over the vertical media.
¢ e Republican horizontal media better explained the network issue agendas of Romney supporters on Twitter during the 2012 election.
Republican Specific Public
Democratic Specific Public
Democratic Horizontal
Media H4 RESULTS ¢ For Obama supporters, Democratic
horizontal media offered higher explanatory power � Higher r2 value, for all of the eight
issues than the Republican horizontal media.
� Averaged r2 value across all eight issues suggests that the Democratic horizontal media offered an increase of .20 r2 over the Republican horizontal media. H4a was strongly supported.
¢ For Romney supporters the Republican horizontal media offered higher explanatory power, � Higher r2 value, for all but one of the eight issues than the
Democratic horizontal media. � Averaged r2 values across all eight issues indicate the
Republican horizontal media offered an increase of .13 r2 over the Democratic horizontal media.
Republican Horizontal
Media
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