ab Market drivers Continued upswing for the real estate market Residential real estate Increased threat level for private homes Commercial real estate Quality more important than ever Listed real estate Last yearʹ s performance hard to beat The real estate market in Switzerland 2011 UBS real estate focus Research Switzerland January 2011
44
Embed
UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
ab
Market drivers Continued upswing for the real estate market
Residential real estate Increased threat level for private homes
Commercial real estate Quality more important than ever
Listed real estate Last yearʹs performance hard to beat
The real estate market in Switzerland2011
UBS real estate focusResearch Switzerland
January 2011
UBS real estate focus January 20112
Content
UBS real estate focus 2011
This report has been prepared by UBS AG
Please see the important disclaimer at the
end of the document Past performance is
not an indication of future returns The
market prices provided are closing prices on
the respective principal stock exchange
Publisher
UBS AG Wealth Management Research
(WMR) PO Box CH-8098 Zurich
Editor in chief
Claudio Saputelli
Editors
Anna Marie Focagrave Roy Greenspan
Authors
Daniel Bruumlllmann Patric Caillat Urs Faumls
Gunnar Herm Caesar Lack
Dalibor Maksimovic Stefan R Meyer
Achim Peijan Claudio Saputelli
Niklaus Scheerer Christian Unternaumlhrer
Thomas Veraguth Markus Wagemann
Editorial deadline
3 January 2011
Project management
Caspar Heer
Desktop
Werner Kuonen Margrit Oppliger
Linda Sutter
Translation
24translate St Gallen Switzerland
Pictures
wwwmasterfi lecom
Printer
Druckerei Flawil AG Flawil Switzerland
Languages
English German French and Italian
Contact
ubs-researchubscom
These authors are from units outside Wealth Manage-ment Research These units are not subject to all legal provisions governing the independence of fi nancial research The ldquoDirectives on the Independence of Financial Researchrdquo issued by the Board of Directors of the Swiss Bankers Association (SBA) do not apply
SAP No 83518E-1101
Editorial 3
At a glance 4
Market drivers
Business cycle and income 6
Infl ation and interest rates 7
Population and employment 8
Overview of property market drivers 8
Residential real estate
Homes ndash elevated threat level 10
Rental apartments ndash steady returns 12
Overview of residential properties 12
In focus
Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory 13
Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game 15
Full-service living ndash a hot new trend 17
Commercial real estate and special uses
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff 20
Retail space ndash zero growth expected 22
Overview of commercial properties 22
In focus
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword 23
Hospital real estate in upheaval 25
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation
opportunities abound 27
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground 30
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios 31
Overview of listed real estate 32
In focus
The rise of Swiss real estate equities 33
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds 35
Property investment groups of investment
foundations ndash on the advance 37
Our services
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services 40
Selection of research publications 42
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can subscribe to the print version of UBS real estate focus via their client advisor or
the Printed amp Branded Products Mailbox sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Electronic subscription is also available via the WMR portal on the UBS e-banking platform
UBS real estate focus January 2011 3
Editorial
Daniel Kalt
Claudio Saputelli
Dear reader
ldquoReal estate is at the core of almost every businessrdquo claims US real estate mogul
Donald Trump He is right ndash to an extent It is true that real estate dominates the
workdays of the authors of this new publication UBS real estate focus What really
matters for our business however is our clients They get us involved in a variety of
issues from basic advisory services on property transactions to complex fi nancing
deals for large PPP projects
Besides serving clients UBSrsquos real estate teams also gain insights by sharing ideas
and supporting one another in an internal network Over the years they have ac-
quired a broad and deep base of real estate expertise We share this expertise with
you in UBS real estate focus our new in-depth annual study of the real estate mar-
ket Every year brings new insights In our quest to fi nd client-specifi c real estate
solutions we continue to challenge ourselves explore new disciplines and develop
innovative ideas
UBS real estate focus consists of four chapters The fi rst chapter ldquoMarket driversrdquo
explains the main macroeconomic factors aff ecting the Swiss real estate market
The next two chapters ldquoResidential propertyrdquo and ldquoCommercial property and spe-
cial usesrdquo focus on direct real estate investments Chapter four looks at indirect real
estate investments ndash investment foundations and listed real estate Each chapter
begins with a market overview followed by three focus articles on the latest market
issues This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover
We hope that UBS real estate focus will help you make sound real estate decisions
We have made our analyses more actionable by including boxes with recommenda-
tions in the focus articles We do agree with Donald Trump in one regard ldquoIn order
to build your wealth and improve your business smarts you need to know about
real estaterdquo
We hope you enjoy reading this issue of UBS real estate focus
Claudio Saputelli
Head Real Estate Research
Wealth Management Research
Daniel Kalt
Chief Economist Switzerland
Wealth Management Research
UBS real estate focus January 20114
At a glance
Residential real estate
Home prices continue to soar This up-
ward trend has not fl attened out as ex-
pected in previous quarters The public is
increasingly worried about a real estate
bubble ndash with some justifi cation Caution
is advised Page 10
The rental apartment market is stable and
harbors upside potential Prices for multi-
family dwellings have made commercial
properties increasingly attractive to inves-
tors Page 12
In focus
Imputed rental values ndash
a violation of classic tax theory
The taxation of imputed rental values as
income is controversial For years there
have been heated discussions about this
issue Last summer the Federal Council
threw its hat in the ring supporting a
total abolition of the tax in order to sim-
plify the tax code Page 13
Occupational pension with -
drawals ndash a dangerous game
An estimated 520000 withdrawals have
been made from retirement accounts since
1995 The withdrawn capital is expected
to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010
The possible impact on future retirement
benefi ts remains unknown but the risks
should not be ignored Page 15
Full-service living ndash a hot new trend
Full-service living is an innovative concept
that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand
for greater comfort and higher living
standards Already established abroad
this model is fast gaining adherents in
Switzerland Page 17
Commercial real estate and
special uses
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in
relatively good shape We expect price
pressure from tenants to widen the per-
formance gap between central and
peripheral locations Page 20
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance increas-
ingly hinges on property quality Page 22
In focus
Public-private partnership ndash more
than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a
long history of collaboration However
public-private partners have to do more
than just work together They also need
to defi ne processes to structure their
relationship allocate risk award con-
tracts and lay down ground rules for
the partnership Page 23
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors Page 25
Global real estate investments ndash
diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy Page 27
Listed real estate and investment
foundations
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits
and partly due to a favorable economic
environment The coming year looks to
be much tougher though Page 30
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn
profi les of funds making them an attrac-
tive choice for mixed portfolios
Page 31
In focus
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors Page 33
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded
real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current
darlings of private and institutional inves-
tors Strong demand has given rise to
new products and improved transpar-
ency More IPOs rights issues and sec-
ondary off erings should keep market
momentum strong Page 35
Property investment groups of
investment foundations ndash
on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market posi-
tions and impressive momentum They
off er attractive product features Pen-
sion fundsrsquo property contributions make
a signifi cant contribution to fueling
growth Page 37
UBS real estate focus January 2011 5
Market drivers
Green lights ahead for key demand drivers
UBS real estate focus January 20116
Market drivers
Business cycle and income
We expect the Swiss economy to grow
more than 2 percent in the next two years
This is well above the historical average
and should boost real estate prices
The Swiss economy has been on the rebound
since mid-2009 Its recession was much mild er
than in most other industrialized western coun-
tries Indeed the Swiss economy is not only
recovering faster than expected it is recovering
faster than the rest of Europe According to the
State Secretariat for Economic Aff airs (Seco) real
gross domestic product (GDP) has expanded an
average of 3 percent in terms of annualized
quarter-on-quarter growth since the recession
ended It even broke above precrisis levels in the
third quarter of 2010
Suffi cient skilled personnel and healthy
balance sheets
The Swiss economy probably owes its surpris-
ingly strong momentum to an agreement with
the European Union on the free movement of
persons Free movement stimulates economic
growth by making it easier for companies to
hire skilled staff The resulting immigration also
supports consumption and construction invest-
ment and directly increases GDP Plus unlike
many other industrialized western countries
Switzerlandrsquos private- and public-sector balance
sheets are in rude health Switzerland is one of
the few countries that did not live beyond its
means in the run-up to the crisis Compared
to other countries Switzerland as a whole
(governments households and companies) has
relatively large holdings of net foreign assets
ndash over 100 percent of GDP Switzerland is also
in an enviable position in terms of public fi -
nances It has a nearly balanced budget and
gross debt ratio of around 40 percent This
positions it to weather the current debt crisis
much better than the highly indebted majority
of industrialized western countries
Following the meteoric upswing of recent
quarters we expect economic growth to con-
tinue at robust albeit lower levels Growth will
be supported by continued immigration a glo-
bal economic upturn and the Swiss National
Bankrsquos very expansive monetary policy Specifi -
cally we expect the economy to grow 23 per-
cent in 2011 and 21 percent in 2012 This is
signifi cantly higher than the average growth
rate of 17 percent over the last 30 years Due
to the strong franc domestic consumption will
probably drive growth instead of exports as in
the precrisis years
Economic growth fuels demand for
real estate
International studies have found that the in-
come elasticity of housing demand is slightly
below 1 In other words a 1 percent increase
in income leads to an increase in housing
spending of slightly less than 1 percent The
expected growth rates which are relatively
high in historical comparison should lead to
a correspondingly high increase in housing
spending While this spending will most likely
fuel the construction of new housing it
should also drive up the prices of existing resi-
dential properties due to the scarcity of land
in Switzerland Prices for commercial real es-
tate should also benefi t from the strong do-
mestic economy
114112
108110
102100
104106
9698
2008 2009 20102005 2006 2007
Strong Swiss economy
Sources Reuters EcoWin UBS WMR
Inflation-adjusted GDP 1st quarter 2005 = 100
SwitzerlandGermany
SpainFrance
United Kingdom USItaly
Caesar Lack
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 7
Market drivers
2008 2009 2010 20112002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Historically low interest rates about to end
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Historical and projected interest rates in percent
Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end
UBS real estate focus January 2011 13
Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory
The taxation of imputed rental values as
income is controversial For years there
have been heated discussions about this
issue Last summer the Federal Council
threw its hat in the ring supporting a
total abolition of the tax in order to sim-
plify the tax code
In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-
sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-
tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The
Federal Council rejected the initiative and now
aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-
ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-
posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-
tions on private interest payments with certain
exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer
be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-
ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-
tion measures
Root of the problem taxing imputed
rental values
Interestingly the endless debate about IRV
taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and
other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-
ed as parts of one indivisible system However
we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-
nomic eff ects by examining each component
separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents
the rent revenues that homeowners could the-
oretically earn if they rented out their home on
the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-
ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-
ants and homeowners on an equal footing on
the premise that homeowners are better off
economically since they live rent-free
This is a specious argument in our view First
tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-
ment risk for their home and no opportunity
costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on
assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-
ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo
risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies
a he y property gains tax on any capital gains
Losses by contrast are fully borne by the
property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor
job of evening the odds between tenants and
homeowners Simply consider how IRV are
determined There are few comparable proper-
ties particularly for single-family homes and
luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-
sible to calculate the market rents that underlie
the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and
sometimes quite complicated assessment
methods to calculate IRV This violates classic
tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be
both simple and transparent
Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other
side of the coin
What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-
tem the deductions for mortgage interest and
maintenance expenses As the law stands the
tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners
to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-
pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-
ment could be more pragmatic about mort-
gage interest There are three main reasons
why deductions for owner-occupied homes
should be eliminated in our opinion as the
Federal Council is essentially proposing to do
First the deductions give households an incen-
tive to take on too much debt While this is not
necessarily bad in itself it is still not something
the government should be expressly encourag-
ing Second allowing income tax deductions
for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-
errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and
thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-
owners can claim larger interest deductions
thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by
contrast bear the full interest rate risk under
current tenant-landlord law through the refer-
ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair
to permit homeowners to claim deductions for
Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated
Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder
whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-
tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve
return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the
current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term
investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-
ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the
mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are
equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-
ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we
strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their
eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio
Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and
other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not
concentrating all your assets in your home
living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a
single cent
Dubious exceptions from interest
deductions
The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its
constitutional mandate to encourage home
ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-
ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up
to a certain franc limit over 10 years This
ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-
efi t high-income households which obviously
misses the point and should therefore be re-
considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-
rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest
income could still off set mortgage interest
against the full amount of their interest in-
come This is also a one-sided policy that large-
ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-
gage interest from their taxable interest and
securities income
The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-
come tax deductions for maintenance costs as
well as private mortgage interest This is a step
in the right direction A er all tenants do not
receive tax breaks on their living expenses
However the Federal Council is making excep-
tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency
and environmental protection measures that
meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very
labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-
ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for
each individual homeowner A more effi cient
method would directly subsidize eco-friendly
energy systems and construction materials
The tax on imputed rental values
should be abolished
The current tax on IRV makes little economic
sense in our view If it were abolished there
would be no need for many deductions and
exceptions which is why we think the govern-
ment should simplify the tax code by com-
pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership
That way homeowners can preserve both their
homes and their sanity around tax time
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 2011 15
Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game
An estimated 520000 withdrawals have
been made from retirement accounts since
1995 The withdrawn capital is expected
to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010
The possible impact on future retirement
benefi ts remains unknown but the risks
should not be ignored
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-
ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August
1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home
ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely
low compared to other countries Raising it is
an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also
policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-
ter when they claimed the low home owner-
ship rate showed too little was being done to
reach the political goal of widespread home
ownership among the population
Swiss home ownership rate remains low
The home ownership rate was 31 percent in
1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-
ership encouragement law began to allow
prospective home buyers to pledge and with-
draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-
manently occupied homes were owner-occu-
pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now
puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent
In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared
to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in
Italy
Why the low ownership rate First condo-
minium ownership was not introduced to
Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss
rental apartment market is relatively effi cient
compared to other countries which dulls the
incentive to own a home So what caused
the spike in the home ownership rate in the
1990s In that decade home prices fell a er
the real estate bubble burst declining sharply
relative to national income Third Switzer-
landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older
ndash the cohort where home ownership is most
common Finally people have been free to
pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-
sets for home purchases since 1995 However
it is not clear whether this statutory option
has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a
bandwagon eff ect
Occupational pensions unsuitable for
encouraging home ownership
The explicit goal of the occupational pension
system ndash established in 1985 to supplement
the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system
(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of
living when the policyholder retires dies or
becomes disabled As fully funded schemes
occupational pensions represent the most
politically attractive pot of money for encour-
aging home ownership Withdrawing pension
assets however does more than reduce
future retirement benefi ts It can also lower
death and disability benefi ts if they depend
on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned
contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals
are a poor vehicle for encouraging home
ownership since they clearly undermine the
main purpose of occupational pensions to
provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in
retirement age
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as
follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves
the purpose of occupational pensions because
living expenses represent one of the largest
costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow
It ignores the need to distribute investment
risks and choose assets that off er security and
an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-
eral Act on Occupational Pensions People
who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-
Thomas Veraguth
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
In focus Residential real estate
350040004500
3000
15001000
20002500
0500
4500040000
3000035000
1500010000
2000025000
05000
0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003
Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR
Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995
Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)
Total annual amount in CHF million
UBS real estate focus January 201116
posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and
considerable risks of the real estate market for
years at a time
Total sum withdrawn remains low
The statistics tell a nuanced story of how
withdrawals are being used to fi nance home
purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-
al pension schemes has nearly doubled since
1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in
2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-
lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs
withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-
resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in
occupational pension schemes over the past
15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-
count for around 05 percent of the total capi-
tal invested in occupational pensions By com-
parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the
single-family homes and condominiums in
Switzerland had an aggregate market value of
124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages
taken out by private households amounted to
566 billion francs in September 2010
The withdrawal statistics also harbor another
surprise the continuity of the amounts with-
drawn The average withdrawal has remained
within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000
Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked
in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-
sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for
680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-
counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred
by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of
annuities and lump-sum payments and 167
percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and
cash payments The 2009 percentages were
roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively
Moderation is key
From an economic perspective certain poten-
tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-
sion to allow consumers to make early pen-
sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily
consumers have exercised considerable self-
restraint as indicated by the data on the
number of withdrawals and total money with-
drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all
members of occupational pension schemes
make withdrawals each year This is in part
due to restrictions inserted in the legislation
by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals
As a result we are cautiously optimistic about
the future of home fi nancing but recommend
pledges over withdrawals
In focus Residential real estate
Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals
Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since
1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to
prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes
make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-
portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are
nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-
ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common
for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However
there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys
by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-
theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-
ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home
Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of
Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-
ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007
For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed
carefully when purchasing a home
UBS real estate focus January 2011 17
Full-service living ndash a hot new trend
Full-service living is an innovative concept
that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for
greater comfort and higher living stand-
ards Already established abroad this
model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-
zerland
Greater prosperity and a steadily growing
number of small households are driving demand
for new models of living with integrated ser-
vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-
nants and senior citizens The upper middle
class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income
no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free
time on tedious errands or exhausting chores
Even young families are increasingly discovering
the modelrsquos benefi ts
Growing importance of new models
of living
Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-
ing needs Over the years we have seen the
emergence of nursing homes independent liv-
ing and assisted-living communities There is
now an even richer more diverse menu of
options ranging from boarding houses to full-
service living While this latest model may re-
main a niche product for several years we think
demand will stay strong for the foreseeable
future thanks to demographic change growing
interest in support and services and a greater
overall need for higher living standards Of-
ferings need to be aligned with target group
needs and interests though Our experience
with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project
shows that models should be tailored to both
the target group and local conditions
James ndash Full-service Living
The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the
brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-
erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the
fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex
in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009
the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-
sion Fund Assets built a second James complex
in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-
four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-
cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third
James complex is under construction in Winter-
thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-
2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-
ping thanks to a direct connection between the
roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center
restaurants and a parking garage
The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects
todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not
only modern communication technologies (In-
ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-
tion (James is physically on the premises) At a
James complex rent includes a wide array of
concierge services such as receiving guests
accepting packages and purchases or reserving
concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to
mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services
such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet
care plant watering or vacation service These
services are billed separately under a pay-as-
you-go scheme
Components of full-service living
Home concierge services are new to Switzer-
land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-
nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it
mainly designates French superintendents or
caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-
cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-
sive personal services for tenants and visitors as
well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-
tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-
yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-
ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The
James concept embraces this principle When
tenants and visitors enter a James apartment
complex it should be readily apparent that this
is more than just a place to live The James ndash
Full-service Living concept can also adapt to
Patric Caillat
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Possible concept for full-service living
Source UBS GRE Switzerland
The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo
Living as a core service
Basic services included in rent
Agrave la carte services
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 201118
residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time
thanks to its extensive modular service off ering
The program is based on three components
residential use integrated basic services and
additional agrave la carte services
The apartment is the core service and as such
must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in
terms of location infrastructure amenities and
aesthetics The rent must also include several
basic services that are important to the target
groups This diff erentiates James from a regular
apartment complex Residents can also use
many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply
pick the services they need and pay for them
separately which makes the apartment some-
thing like a hotel To be successful the concept
has to combine these elements intelligently
while taking local circumstances into account
Other models on the market
Several models with slightly diff erent approach-
es have been launched in recent years Besides
James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-
set Management other full-service models in-
clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real
Estate Asset Management department and
ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG
Combining services with attractive living can
give a property its own unique character and
ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps
support intelligent real estate marketing How-
ever full-service living can only work if the
services benefi t users operators and owners
alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-
perience with such models it certainly has the
conditions and outlook needed to achieve a
win-win situation
Added value at an attractive price
ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work
users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat
value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to
tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er
all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-
cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go
scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start
Who is the target audience What services do they want While this
might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos
success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are
handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts
will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-
tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo
changing needs
In focus Residential real estate
Commercial real estate and special uses
The market separates the wheat from the chaff
UBS real estate focus January 201120
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in rela-
tively good shape We expect price pres-
sure from tenants to widen the perform-
ance gap between central and peripheral
locations
Offi ce space is the most important sector of
the Swiss commercial real estate market The
commercial property market was estimated
to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end
of 2009 according to Investment Property
Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this
total was offi ce space while retail properties
made up 377 percent and industrial real es-
tate 35 percent
Stable demand factors
Besides being large the offi ce property seg-
ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-
ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the
total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of
Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and
business services represent over 18 percent of
total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-
centage compared to other countries The
Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-
where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-
tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-
tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos
growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still
remained positive Part-time employment is
also becoming more widespread in Switzer-
land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies
are focusing on boosting employee productiv-
ity Future employment growth looks likely to
be moderate as a result
Rising importance of quality
The prospect of slow but positive employment
growth highlights the importance of analyzing
the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates
range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is
moderate compared to other countries and has
recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In
crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found
that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce
completions have been much higher in Ger-
man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-
zerland in recent years In 201112 around
150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the
market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2
in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the
various kinds of offi ce space on the market For
example we are skeptical about the medium-
term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-
erties (poor access to transportation and low
availability of services) on the periphery of cit-
ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-
geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-
ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be
strong expanding the labor market companies
still need to provide attractive workplaces for
their employees Easily accessible central offi ce
locations will gain even more importance Un-
der these pressures the offi ce market should
start to more clearly separate the wheat from
the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce
space is scarce should perform well while
non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle
to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral
locations will be squeezed since they are main-
ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce
functions Through renovation or new con-
structions in contrast downtown locations
should see further appreciation and attractive
returns For this reason we think rents for
high-end offi ce space should rise further
Positive appreciation rate
Despite falling interest rates and government
bond yields initial yields in the institutional
offi ce segment have hardly budged according
to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and
2009 In contrast to many European real estate
markets the appreciation rate is still positively
Commercial real estate and special uses
5
34
0ndash1
12
ndash3ndash2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
No drop in employment in Switzerland
Source Experian Business Services June 2010
Employment growth in financial and business services in percent
SwitzerlandEU15
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 21
correlated with the rental growth rate in the
Swiss offi ce property market The percentage
increase in the granting of commercial mort-
gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation
rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss
commercial property market is on solid ground
The fall in government bond yields has height-
ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-
ties driving investment demand for this asset
class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
These authors are from units outside Wealth Manage-ment Research These units are not subject to all legal provisions governing the independence of fi nancial research The ldquoDirectives on the Independence of Financial Researchrdquo issued by the Board of Directors of the Swiss Bankers Association (SBA) do not apply
SAP No 83518E-1101
Editorial 3
At a glance 4
Market drivers
Business cycle and income 6
Infl ation and interest rates 7
Population and employment 8
Overview of property market drivers 8
Residential real estate
Homes ndash elevated threat level 10
Rental apartments ndash steady returns 12
Overview of residential properties 12
In focus
Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory 13
Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game 15
Full-service living ndash a hot new trend 17
Commercial real estate and special uses
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff 20
Retail space ndash zero growth expected 22
Overview of commercial properties 22
In focus
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword 23
Hospital real estate in upheaval 25
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation
opportunities abound 27
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground 30
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios 31
Overview of listed real estate 32
In focus
The rise of Swiss real estate equities 33
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds 35
Property investment groups of investment
foundations ndash on the advance 37
Our services
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services 40
Selection of research publications 42
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can subscribe to the print version of UBS real estate focus via their client advisor or
the Printed amp Branded Products Mailbox sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Electronic subscription is also available via the WMR portal on the UBS e-banking platform
UBS real estate focus January 2011 3
Editorial
Daniel Kalt
Claudio Saputelli
Dear reader
ldquoReal estate is at the core of almost every businessrdquo claims US real estate mogul
Donald Trump He is right ndash to an extent It is true that real estate dominates the
workdays of the authors of this new publication UBS real estate focus What really
matters for our business however is our clients They get us involved in a variety of
issues from basic advisory services on property transactions to complex fi nancing
deals for large PPP projects
Besides serving clients UBSrsquos real estate teams also gain insights by sharing ideas
and supporting one another in an internal network Over the years they have ac-
quired a broad and deep base of real estate expertise We share this expertise with
you in UBS real estate focus our new in-depth annual study of the real estate mar-
ket Every year brings new insights In our quest to fi nd client-specifi c real estate
solutions we continue to challenge ourselves explore new disciplines and develop
innovative ideas
UBS real estate focus consists of four chapters The fi rst chapter ldquoMarket driversrdquo
explains the main macroeconomic factors aff ecting the Swiss real estate market
The next two chapters ldquoResidential propertyrdquo and ldquoCommercial property and spe-
cial usesrdquo focus on direct real estate investments Chapter four looks at indirect real
estate investments ndash investment foundations and listed real estate Each chapter
begins with a market overview followed by three focus articles on the latest market
issues This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover
We hope that UBS real estate focus will help you make sound real estate decisions
We have made our analyses more actionable by including boxes with recommenda-
tions in the focus articles We do agree with Donald Trump in one regard ldquoIn order
to build your wealth and improve your business smarts you need to know about
real estaterdquo
We hope you enjoy reading this issue of UBS real estate focus
Claudio Saputelli
Head Real Estate Research
Wealth Management Research
Daniel Kalt
Chief Economist Switzerland
Wealth Management Research
UBS real estate focus January 20114
At a glance
Residential real estate
Home prices continue to soar This up-
ward trend has not fl attened out as ex-
pected in previous quarters The public is
increasingly worried about a real estate
bubble ndash with some justifi cation Caution
is advised Page 10
The rental apartment market is stable and
harbors upside potential Prices for multi-
family dwellings have made commercial
properties increasingly attractive to inves-
tors Page 12
In focus
Imputed rental values ndash
a violation of classic tax theory
The taxation of imputed rental values as
income is controversial For years there
have been heated discussions about this
issue Last summer the Federal Council
threw its hat in the ring supporting a
total abolition of the tax in order to sim-
plify the tax code Page 13
Occupational pension with -
drawals ndash a dangerous game
An estimated 520000 withdrawals have
been made from retirement accounts since
1995 The withdrawn capital is expected
to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010
The possible impact on future retirement
benefi ts remains unknown but the risks
should not be ignored Page 15
Full-service living ndash a hot new trend
Full-service living is an innovative concept
that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand
for greater comfort and higher living
standards Already established abroad
this model is fast gaining adherents in
Switzerland Page 17
Commercial real estate and
special uses
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in
relatively good shape We expect price
pressure from tenants to widen the per-
formance gap between central and
peripheral locations Page 20
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance increas-
ingly hinges on property quality Page 22
In focus
Public-private partnership ndash more
than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a
long history of collaboration However
public-private partners have to do more
than just work together They also need
to defi ne processes to structure their
relationship allocate risk award con-
tracts and lay down ground rules for
the partnership Page 23
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors Page 25
Global real estate investments ndash
diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy Page 27
Listed real estate and investment
foundations
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits
and partly due to a favorable economic
environment The coming year looks to
be much tougher though Page 30
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn
profi les of funds making them an attrac-
tive choice for mixed portfolios
Page 31
In focus
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors Page 33
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded
real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current
darlings of private and institutional inves-
tors Strong demand has given rise to
new products and improved transpar-
ency More IPOs rights issues and sec-
ondary off erings should keep market
momentum strong Page 35
Property investment groups of
investment foundations ndash
on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market posi-
tions and impressive momentum They
off er attractive product features Pen-
sion fundsrsquo property contributions make
a signifi cant contribution to fueling
growth Page 37
UBS real estate focus January 2011 5
Market drivers
Green lights ahead for key demand drivers
UBS real estate focus January 20116
Market drivers
Business cycle and income
We expect the Swiss economy to grow
more than 2 percent in the next two years
This is well above the historical average
and should boost real estate prices
The Swiss economy has been on the rebound
since mid-2009 Its recession was much mild er
than in most other industrialized western coun-
tries Indeed the Swiss economy is not only
recovering faster than expected it is recovering
faster than the rest of Europe According to the
State Secretariat for Economic Aff airs (Seco) real
gross domestic product (GDP) has expanded an
average of 3 percent in terms of annualized
quarter-on-quarter growth since the recession
ended It even broke above precrisis levels in the
third quarter of 2010
Suffi cient skilled personnel and healthy
balance sheets
The Swiss economy probably owes its surpris-
ingly strong momentum to an agreement with
the European Union on the free movement of
persons Free movement stimulates economic
growth by making it easier for companies to
hire skilled staff The resulting immigration also
supports consumption and construction invest-
ment and directly increases GDP Plus unlike
many other industrialized western countries
Switzerlandrsquos private- and public-sector balance
sheets are in rude health Switzerland is one of
the few countries that did not live beyond its
means in the run-up to the crisis Compared
to other countries Switzerland as a whole
(governments households and companies) has
relatively large holdings of net foreign assets
ndash over 100 percent of GDP Switzerland is also
in an enviable position in terms of public fi -
nances It has a nearly balanced budget and
gross debt ratio of around 40 percent This
positions it to weather the current debt crisis
much better than the highly indebted majority
of industrialized western countries
Following the meteoric upswing of recent
quarters we expect economic growth to con-
tinue at robust albeit lower levels Growth will
be supported by continued immigration a glo-
bal economic upturn and the Swiss National
Bankrsquos very expansive monetary policy Specifi -
cally we expect the economy to grow 23 per-
cent in 2011 and 21 percent in 2012 This is
signifi cantly higher than the average growth
rate of 17 percent over the last 30 years Due
to the strong franc domestic consumption will
probably drive growth instead of exports as in
the precrisis years
Economic growth fuels demand for
real estate
International studies have found that the in-
come elasticity of housing demand is slightly
below 1 In other words a 1 percent increase
in income leads to an increase in housing
spending of slightly less than 1 percent The
expected growth rates which are relatively
high in historical comparison should lead to
a correspondingly high increase in housing
spending While this spending will most likely
fuel the construction of new housing it
should also drive up the prices of existing resi-
dential properties due to the scarcity of land
in Switzerland Prices for commercial real es-
tate should also benefi t from the strong do-
mestic economy
114112
108110
102100
104106
9698
2008 2009 20102005 2006 2007
Strong Swiss economy
Sources Reuters EcoWin UBS WMR
Inflation-adjusted GDP 1st quarter 2005 = 100
SwitzerlandGermany
SpainFrance
United Kingdom USItaly
Caesar Lack
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 7
Market drivers
2008 2009 2010 20112002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Historically low interest rates about to end
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Historical and projected interest rates in percent
Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end
UBS real estate focus January 2011 13
Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory
The taxation of imputed rental values as
income is controversial For years there
have been heated discussions about this
issue Last summer the Federal Council
threw its hat in the ring supporting a
total abolition of the tax in order to sim-
plify the tax code
In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-
sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-
tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The
Federal Council rejected the initiative and now
aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-
ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-
posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-
tions on private interest payments with certain
exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer
be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-
ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-
tion measures
Root of the problem taxing imputed
rental values
Interestingly the endless debate about IRV
taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and
other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-
ed as parts of one indivisible system However
we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-
nomic eff ects by examining each component
separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents
the rent revenues that homeowners could the-
oretically earn if they rented out their home on
the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-
ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-
ants and homeowners on an equal footing on
the premise that homeowners are better off
economically since they live rent-free
This is a specious argument in our view First
tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-
ment risk for their home and no opportunity
costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on
assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-
ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo
risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies
a he y property gains tax on any capital gains
Losses by contrast are fully borne by the
property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor
job of evening the odds between tenants and
homeowners Simply consider how IRV are
determined There are few comparable proper-
ties particularly for single-family homes and
luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-
sible to calculate the market rents that underlie
the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and
sometimes quite complicated assessment
methods to calculate IRV This violates classic
tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be
both simple and transparent
Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other
side of the coin
What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-
tem the deductions for mortgage interest and
maintenance expenses As the law stands the
tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners
to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-
pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-
ment could be more pragmatic about mort-
gage interest There are three main reasons
why deductions for owner-occupied homes
should be eliminated in our opinion as the
Federal Council is essentially proposing to do
First the deductions give households an incen-
tive to take on too much debt While this is not
necessarily bad in itself it is still not something
the government should be expressly encourag-
ing Second allowing income tax deductions
for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-
errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and
thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-
owners can claim larger interest deductions
thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by
contrast bear the full interest rate risk under
current tenant-landlord law through the refer-
ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair
to permit homeowners to claim deductions for
Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated
Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder
whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-
tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve
return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the
current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term
investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-
ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the
mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are
equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-
ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we
strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their
eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio
Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and
other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not
concentrating all your assets in your home
living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a
single cent
Dubious exceptions from interest
deductions
The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its
constitutional mandate to encourage home
ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-
ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up
to a certain franc limit over 10 years This
ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-
efi t high-income households which obviously
misses the point and should therefore be re-
considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-
rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest
income could still off set mortgage interest
against the full amount of their interest in-
come This is also a one-sided policy that large-
ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-
gage interest from their taxable interest and
securities income
The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-
come tax deductions for maintenance costs as
well as private mortgage interest This is a step
in the right direction A er all tenants do not
receive tax breaks on their living expenses
However the Federal Council is making excep-
tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency
and environmental protection measures that
meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very
labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-
ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for
each individual homeowner A more effi cient
method would directly subsidize eco-friendly
energy systems and construction materials
The tax on imputed rental values
should be abolished
The current tax on IRV makes little economic
sense in our view If it were abolished there
would be no need for many deductions and
exceptions which is why we think the govern-
ment should simplify the tax code by com-
pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership
That way homeowners can preserve both their
homes and their sanity around tax time
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 2011 15
Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game
An estimated 520000 withdrawals have
been made from retirement accounts since
1995 The withdrawn capital is expected
to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010
The possible impact on future retirement
benefi ts remains unknown but the risks
should not be ignored
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-
ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August
1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home
ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely
low compared to other countries Raising it is
an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also
policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-
ter when they claimed the low home owner-
ship rate showed too little was being done to
reach the political goal of widespread home
ownership among the population
Swiss home ownership rate remains low
The home ownership rate was 31 percent in
1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-
ership encouragement law began to allow
prospective home buyers to pledge and with-
draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-
manently occupied homes were owner-occu-
pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now
puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent
In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared
to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in
Italy
Why the low ownership rate First condo-
minium ownership was not introduced to
Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss
rental apartment market is relatively effi cient
compared to other countries which dulls the
incentive to own a home So what caused
the spike in the home ownership rate in the
1990s In that decade home prices fell a er
the real estate bubble burst declining sharply
relative to national income Third Switzer-
landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older
ndash the cohort where home ownership is most
common Finally people have been free to
pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-
sets for home purchases since 1995 However
it is not clear whether this statutory option
has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a
bandwagon eff ect
Occupational pensions unsuitable for
encouraging home ownership
The explicit goal of the occupational pension
system ndash established in 1985 to supplement
the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system
(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of
living when the policyholder retires dies or
becomes disabled As fully funded schemes
occupational pensions represent the most
politically attractive pot of money for encour-
aging home ownership Withdrawing pension
assets however does more than reduce
future retirement benefi ts It can also lower
death and disability benefi ts if they depend
on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned
contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals
are a poor vehicle for encouraging home
ownership since they clearly undermine the
main purpose of occupational pensions to
provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in
retirement age
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as
follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves
the purpose of occupational pensions because
living expenses represent one of the largest
costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow
It ignores the need to distribute investment
risks and choose assets that off er security and
an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-
eral Act on Occupational Pensions People
who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-
Thomas Veraguth
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
In focus Residential real estate
350040004500
3000
15001000
20002500
0500
4500040000
3000035000
1500010000
2000025000
05000
0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003
Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR
Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995
Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)
Total annual amount in CHF million
UBS real estate focus January 201116
posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and
considerable risks of the real estate market for
years at a time
Total sum withdrawn remains low
The statistics tell a nuanced story of how
withdrawals are being used to fi nance home
purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-
al pension schemes has nearly doubled since
1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in
2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-
lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs
withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-
resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in
occupational pension schemes over the past
15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-
count for around 05 percent of the total capi-
tal invested in occupational pensions By com-
parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the
single-family homes and condominiums in
Switzerland had an aggregate market value of
124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages
taken out by private households amounted to
566 billion francs in September 2010
The withdrawal statistics also harbor another
surprise the continuity of the amounts with-
drawn The average withdrawal has remained
within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000
Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked
in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-
sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for
680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-
counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred
by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of
annuities and lump-sum payments and 167
percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and
cash payments The 2009 percentages were
roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively
Moderation is key
From an economic perspective certain poten-
tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-
sion to allow consumers to make early pen-
sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily
consumers have exercised considerable self-
restraint as indicated by the data on the
number of withdrawals and total money with-
drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all
members of occupational pension schemes
make withdrawals each year This is in part
due to restrictions inserted in the legislation
by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals
As a result we are cautiously optimistic about
the future of home fi nancing but recommend
pledges over withdrawals
In focus Residential real estate
Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals
Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since
1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to
prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes
make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-
portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are
nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-
ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common
for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However
there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys
by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-
theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-
ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home
Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of
Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-
ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007
For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed
carefully when purchasing a home
UBS real estate focus January 2011 17
Full-service living ndash a hot new trend
Full-service living is an innovative concept
that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for
greater comfort and higher living stand-
ards Already established abroad this
model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-
zerland
Greater prosperity and a steadily growing
number of small households are driving demand
for new models of living with integrated ser-
vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-
nants and senior citizens The upper middle
class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income
no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free
time on tedious errands or exhausting chores
Even young families are increasingly discovering
the modelrsquos benefi ts
Growing importance of new models
of living
Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-
ing needs Over the years we have seen the
emergence of nursing homes independent liv-
ing and assisted-living communities There is
now an even richer more diverse menu of
options ranging from boarding houses to full-
service living While this latest model may re-
main a niche product for several years we think
demand will stay strong for the foreseeable
future thanks to demographic change growing
interest in support and services and a greater
overall need for higher living standards Of-
ferings need to be aligned with target group
needs and interests though Our experience
with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project
shows that models should be tailored to both
the target group and local conditions
James ndash Full-service Living
The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the
brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-
erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the
fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex
in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009
the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-
sion Fund Assets built a second James complex
in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-
four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-
cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third
James complex is under construction in Winter-
thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-
2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-
ping thanks to a direct connection between the
roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center
restaurants and a parking garage
The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects
todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not
only modern communication technologies (In-
ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-
tion (James is physically on the premises) At a
James complex rent includes a wide array of
concierge services such as receiving guests
accepting packages and purchases or reserving
concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to
mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services
such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet
care plant watering or vacation service These
services are billed separately under a pay-as-
you-go scheme
Components of full-service living
Home concierge services are new to Switzer-
land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-
nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it
mainly designates French superintendents or
caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-
cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-
sive personal services for tenants and visitors as
well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-
tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-
yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-
ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The
James concept embraces this principle When
tenants and visitors enter a James apartment
complex it should be readily apparent that this
is more than just a place to live The James ndash
Full-service Living concept can also adapt to
Patric Caillat
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Possible concept for full-service living
Source UBS GRE Switzerland
The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo
Living as a core service
Basic services included in rent
Agrave la carte services
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 201118
residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time
thanks to its extensive modular service off ering
The program is based on three components
residential use integrated basic services and
additional agrave la carte services
The apartment is the core service and as such
must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in
terms of location infrastructure amenities and
aesthetics The rent must also include several
basic services that are important to the target
groups This diff erentiates James from a regular
apartment complex Residents can also use
many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply
pick the services they need and pay for them
separately which makes the apartment some-
thing like a hotel To be successful the concept
has to combine these elements intelligently
while taking local circumstances into account
Other models on the market
Several models with slightly diff erent approach-
es have been launched in recent years Besides
James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-
set Management other full-service models in-
clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real
Estate Asset Management department and
ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG
Combining services with attractive living can
give a property its own unique character and
ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps
support intelligent real estate marketing How-
ever full-service living can only work if the
services benefi t users operators and owners
alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-
perience with such models it certainly has the
conditions and outlook needed to achieve a
win-win situation
Added value at an attractive price
ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work
users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat
value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to
tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er
all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-
cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go
scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start
Who is the target audience What services do they want While this
might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos
success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are
handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts
will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-
tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo
changing needs
In focus Residential real estate
Commercial real estate and special uses
The market separates the wheat from the chaff
UBS real estate focus January 201120
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in rela-
tively good shape We expect price pres-
sure from tenants to widen the perform-
ance gap between central and peripheral
locations
Offi ce space is the most important sector of
the Swiss commercial real estate market The
commercial property market was estimated
to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end
of 2009 according to Investment Property
Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this
total was offi ce space while retail properties
made up 377 percent and industrial real es-
tate 35 percent
Stable demand factors
Besides being large the offi ce property seg-
ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-
ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the
total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of
Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and
business services represent over 18 percent of
total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-
centage compared to other countries The
Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-
where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-
tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-
tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos
growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still
remained positive Part-time employment is
also becoming more widespread in Switzer-
land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies
are focusing on boosting employee productiv-
ity Future employment growth looks likely to
be moderate as a result
Rising importance of quality
The prospect of slow but positive employment
growth highlights the importance of analyzing
the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates
range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is
moderate compared to other countries and has
recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In
crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found
that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce
completions have been much higher in Ger-
man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-
zerland in recent years In 201112 around
150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the
market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2
in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the
various kinds of offi ce space on the market For
example we are skeptical about the medium-
term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-
erties (poor access to transportation and low
availability of services) on the periphery of cit-
ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-
geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-
ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be
strong expanding the labor market companies
still need to provide attractive workplaces for
their employees Easily accessible central offi ce
locations will gain even more importance Un-
der these pressures the offi ce market should
start to more clearly separate the wheat from
the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce
space is scarce should perform well while
non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle
to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral
locations will be squeezed since they are main-
ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce
functions Through renovation or new con-
structions in contrast downtown locations
should see further appreciation and attractive
returns For this reason we think rents for
high-end offi ce space should rise further
Positive appreciation rate
Despite falling interest rates and government
bond yields initial yields in the institutional
offi ce segment have hardly budged according
to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and
2009 In contrast to many European real estate
markets the appreciation rate is still positively
Commercial real estate and special uses
5
34
0ndash1
12
ndash3ndash2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
No drop in employment in Switzerland
Source Experian Business Services June 2010
Employment growth in financial and business services in percent
SwitzerlandEU15
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 21
correlated with the rental growth rate in the
Swiss offi ce property market The percentage
increase in the granting of commercial mort-
gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation
rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss
commercial property market is on solid ground
The fall in government bond yields has height-
ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-
ties driving investment demand for this asset
class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end
UBS real estate focus January 2011 13
Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory
The taxation of imputed rental values as
income is controversial For years there
have been heated discussions about this
issue Last summer the Federal Council
threw its hat in the ring supporting a
total abolition of the tax in order to sim-
plify the tax code
In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-
sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-
tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The
Federal Council rejected the initiative and now
aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-
ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-
posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-
tions on private interest payments with certain
exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer
be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-
ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-
tion measures
Root of the problem taxing imputed
rental values
Interestingly the endless debate about IRV
taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and
other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-
ed as parts of one indivisible system However
we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-
nomic eff ects by examining each component
separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents
the rent revenues that homeowners could the-
oretically earn if they rented out their home on
the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-
ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-
ants and homeowners on an equal footing on
the premise that homeowners are better off
economically since they live rent-free
This is a specious argument in our view First
tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-
ment risk for their home and no opportunity
costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on
assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-
ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo
risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies
a he y property gains tax on any capital gains
Losses by contrast are fully borne by the
property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor
job of evening the odds between tenants and
homeowners Simply consider how IRV are
determined There are few comparable proper-
ties particularly for single-family homes and
luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-
sible to calculate the market rents that underlie
the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and
sometimes quite complicated assessment
methods to calculate IRV This violates classic
tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be
both simple and transparent
Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other
side of the coin
What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-
tem the deductions for mortgage interest and
maintenance expenses As the law stands the
tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners
to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-
pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-
ment could be more pragmatic about mort-
gage interest There are three main reasons
why deductions for owner-occupied homes
should be eliminated in our opinion as the
Federal Council is essentially proposing to do
First the deductions give households an incen-
tive to take on too much debt While this is not
necessarily bad in itself it is still not something
the government should be expressly encourag-
ing Second allowing income tax deductions
for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-
errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and
thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-
owners can claim larger interest deductions
thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by
contrast bear the full interest rate risk under
current tenant-landlord law through the refer-
ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair
to permit homeowners to claim deductions for
Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated
Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder
whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-
tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve
return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the
current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term
investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-
ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the
mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are
equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-
ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we
strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their
eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio
Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and
other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not
concentrating all your assets in your home
living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a
single cent
Dubious exceptions from interest
deductions
The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its
constitutional mandate to encourage home
ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-
ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up
to a certain franc limit over 10 years This
ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-
efi t high-income households which obviously
misses the point and should therefore be re-
considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-
rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest
income could still off set mortgage interest
against the full amount of their interest in-
come This is also a one-sided policy that large-
ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-
gage interest from their taxable interest and
securities income
The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-
come tax deductions for maintenance costs as
well as private mortgage interest This is a step
in the right direction A er all tenants do not
receive tax breaks on their living expenses
However the Federal Council is making excep-
tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency
and environmental protection measures that
meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very
labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-
ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for
each individual homeowner A more effi cient
method would directly subsidize eco-friendly
energy systems and construction materials
The tax on imputed rental values
should be abolished
The current tax on IRV makes little economic
sense in our view If it were abolished there
would be no need for many deductions and
exceptions which is why we think the govern-
ment should simplify the tax code by com-
pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership
That way homeowners can preserve both their
homes and their sanity around tax time
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 2011 15
Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game
An estimated 520000 withdrawals have
been made from retirement accounts since
1995 The withdrawn capital is expected
to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010
The possible impact on future retirement
benefi ts remains unknown but the risks
should not be ignored
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-
ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August
1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home
ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely
low compared to other countries Raising it is
an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also
policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-
ter when they claimed the low home owner-
ship rate showed too little was being done to
reach the political goal of widespread home
ownership among the population
Swiss home ownership rate remains low
The home ownership rate was 31 percent in
1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-
ership encouragement law began to allow
prospective home buyers to pledge and with-
draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-
manently occupied homes were owner-occu-
pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now
puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent
In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared
to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in
Italy
Why the low ownership rate First condo-
minium ownership was not introduced to
Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss
rental apartment market is relatively effi cient
compared to other countries which dulls the
incentive to own a home So what caused
the spike in the home ownership rate in the
1990s In that decade home prices fell a er
the real estate bubble burst declining sharply
relative to national income Third Switzer-
landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older
ndash the cohort where home ownership is most
common Finally people have been free to
pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-
sets for home purchases since 1995 However
it is not clear whether this statutory option
has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a
bandwagon eff ect
Occupational pensions unsuitable for
encouraging home ownership
The explicit goal of the occupational pension
system ndash established in 1985 to supplement
the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system
(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of
living when the policyholder retires dies or
becomes disabled As fully funded schemes
occupational pensions represent the most
politically attractive pot of money for encour-
aging home ownership Withdrawing pension
assets however does more than reduce
future retirement benefi ts It can also lower
death and disability benefi ts if they depend
on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned
contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals
are a poor vehicle for encouraging home
ownership since they clearly undermine the
main purpose of occupational pensions to
provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in
retirement age
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as
follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves
the purpose of occupational pensions because
living expenses represent one of the largest
costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow
It ignores the need to distribute investment
risks and choose assets that off er security and
an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-
eral Act on Occupational Pensions People
who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-
Thomas Veraguth
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
In focus Residential real estate
350040004500
3000
15001000
20002500
0500
4500040000
3000035000
1500010000
2000025000
05000
0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003
Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR
Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995
Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)
Total annual amount in CHF million
UBS real estate focus January 201116
posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and
considerable risks of the real estate market for
years at a time
Total sum withdrawn remains low
The statistics tell a nuanced story of how
withdrawals are being used to fi nance home
purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-
al pension schemes has nearly doubled since
1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in
2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-
lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs
withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-
resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in
occupational pension schemes over the past
15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-
count for around 05 percent of the total capi-
tal invested in occupational pensions By com-
parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the
single-family homes and condominiums in
Switzerland had an aggregate market value of
124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages
taken out by private households amounted to
566 billion francs in September 2010
The withdrawal statistics also harbor another
surprise the continuity of the amounts with-
drawn The average withdrawal has remained
within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000
Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked
in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-
sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for
680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-
counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred
by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of
annuities and lump-sum payments and 167
percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and
cash payments The 2009 percentages were
roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively
Moderation is key
From an economic perspective certain poten-
tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-
sion to allow consumers to make early pen-
sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily
consumers have exercised considerable self-
restraint as indicated by the data on the
number of withdrawals and total money with-
drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all
members of occupational pension schemes
make withdrawals each year This is in part
due to restrictions inserted in the legislation
by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals
As a result we are cautiously optimistic about
the future of home fi nancing but recommend
pledges over withdrawals
In focus Residential real estate
Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals
Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since
1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to
prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes
make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-
portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are
nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-
ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common
for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However
there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys
by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-
theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-
ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home
Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of
Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-
ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007
For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed
carefully when purchasing a home
UBS real estate focus January 2011 17
Full-service living ndash a hot new trend
Full-service living is an innovative concept
that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for
greater comfort and higher living stand-
ards Already established abroad this
model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-
zerland
Greater prosperity and a steadily growing
number of small households are driving demand
for new models of living with integrated ser-
vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-
nants and senior citizens The upper middle
class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income
no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free
time on tedious errands or exhausting chores
Even young families are increasingly discovering
the modelrsquos benefi ts
Growing importance of new models
of living
Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-
ing needs Over the years we have seen the
emergence of nursing homes independent liv-
ing and assisted-living communities There is
now an even richer more diverse menu of
options ranging from boarding houses to full-
service living While this latest model may re-
main a niche product for several years we think
demand will stay strong for the foreseeable
future thanks to demographic change growing
interest in support and services and a greater
overall need for higher living standards Of-
ferings need to be aligned with target group
needs and interests though Our experience
with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project
shows that models should be tailored to both
the target group and local conditions
James ndash Full-service Living
The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the
brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-
erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the
fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex
in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009
the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-
sion Fund Assets built a second James complex
in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-
four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-
cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third
James complex is under construction in Winter-
thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-
2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-
ping thanks to a direct connection between the
roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center
restaurants and a parking garage
The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects
todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not
only modern communication technologies (In-
ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-
tion (James is physically on the premises) At a
James complex rent includes a wide array of
concierge services such as receiving guests
accepting packages and purchases or reserving
concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to
mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services
such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet
care plant watering or vacation service These
services are billed separately under a pay-as-
you-go scheme
Components of full-service living
Home concierge services are new to Switzer-
land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-
nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it
mainly designates French superintendents or
caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-
cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-
sive personal services for tenants and visitors as
well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-
tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-
yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-
ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The
James concept embraces this principle When
tenants and visitors enter a James apartment
complex it should be readily apparent that this
is more than just a place to live The James ndash
Full-service Living concept can also adapt to
Patric Caillat
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Possible concept for full-service living
Source UBS GRE Switzerland
The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo
Living as a core service
Basic services included in rent
Agrave la carte services
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 201118
residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time
thanks to its extensive modular service off ering
The program is based on three components
residential use integrated basic services and
additional agrave la carte services
The apartment is the core service and as such
must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in
terms of location infrastructure amenities and
aesthetics The rent must also include several
basic services that are important to the target
groups This diff erentiates James from a regular
apartment complex Residents can also use
many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply
pick the services they need and pay for them
separately which makes the apartment some-
thing like a hotel To be successful the concept
has to combine these elements intelligently
while taking local circumstances into account
Other models on the market
Several models with slightly diff erent approach-
es have been launched in recent years Besides
James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-
set Management other full-service models in-
clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real
Estate Asset Management department and
ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG
Combining services with attractive living can
give a property its own unique character and
ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps
support intelligent real estate marketing How-
ever full-service living can only work if the
services benefi t users operators and owners
alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-
perience with such models it certainly has the
conditions and outlook needed to achieve a
win-win situation
Added value at an attractive price
ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work
users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat
value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to
tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er
all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-
cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go
scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start
Who is the target audience What services do they want While this
might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos
success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are
handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts
will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-
tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo
changing needs
In focus Residential real estate
Commercial real estate and special uses
The market separates the wheat from the chaff
UBS real estate focus January 201120
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in rela-
tively good shape We expect price pres-
sure from tenants to widen the perform-
ance gap between central and peripheral
locations
Offi ce space is the most important sector of
the Swiss commercial real estate market The
commercial property market was estimated
to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end
of 2009 according to Investment Property
Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this
total was offi ce space while retail properties
made up 377 percent and industrial real es-
tate 35 percent
Stable demand factors
Besides being large the offi ce property seg-
ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-
ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the
total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of
Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and
business services represent over 18 percent of
total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-
centage compared to other countries The
Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-
where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-
tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-
tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos
growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still
remained positive Part-time employment is
also becoming more widespread in Switzer-
land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies
are focusing on boosting employee productiv-
ity Future employment growth looks likely to
be moderate as a result
Rising importance of quality
The prospect of slow but positive employment
growth highlights the importance of analyzing
the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates
range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is
moderate compared to other countries and has
recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In
crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found
that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce
completions have been much higher in Ger-
man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-
zerland in recent years In 201112 around
150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the
market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2
in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the
various kinds of offi ce space on the market For
example we are skeptical about the medium-
term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-
erties (poor access to transportation and low
availability of services) on the periphery of cit-
ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-
geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-
ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be
strong expanding the labor market companies
still need to provide attractive workplaces for
their employees Easily accessible central offi ce
locations will gain even more importance Un-
der these pressures the offi ce market should
start to more clearly separate the wheat from
the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce
space is scarce should perform well while
non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle
to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral
locations will be squeezed since they are main-
ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce
functions Through renovation or new con-
structions in contrast downtown locations
should see further appreciation and attractive
returns For this reason we think rents for
high-end offi ce space should rise further
Positive appreciation rate
Despite falling interest rates and government
bond yields initial yields in the institutional
offi ce segment have hardly budged according
to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and
2009 In contrast to many European real estate
markets the appreciation rate is still positively
Commercial real estate and special uses
5
34
0ndash1
12
ndash3ndash2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
No drop in employment in Switzerland
Source Experian Business Services June 2010
Employment growth in financial and business services in percent
SwitzerlandEU15
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 21
correlated with the rental growth rate in the
Swiss offi ce property market The percentage
increase in the granting of commercial mort-
gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation
rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss
commercial property market is on solid ground
The fall in government bond yields has height-
ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-
ties driving investment demand for this asset
class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end
UBS real estate focus January 2011 13
Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory
The taxation of imputed rental values as
income is controversial For years there
have been heated discussions about this
issue Last summer the Federal Council
threw its hat in the ring supporting a
total abolition of the tax in order to sim-
plify the tax code
In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-
sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-
tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The
Federal Council rejected the initiative and now
aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-
ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-
posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-
tions on private interest payments with certain
exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer
be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-
ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-
tion measures
Root of the problem taxing imputed
rental values
Interestingly the endless debate about IRV
taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and
other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-
ed as parts of one indivisible system However
we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-
nomic eff ects by examining each component
separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents
the rent revenues that homeowners could the-
oretically earn if they rented out their home on
the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-
ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-
ants and homeowners on an equal footing on
the premise that homeowners are better off
economically since they live rent-free
This is a specious argument in our view First
tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-
ment risk for their home and no opportunity
costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on
assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-
ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo
risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies
a he y property gains tax on any capital gains
Losses by contrast are fully borne by the
property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor
job of evening the odds between tenants and
homeowners Simply consider how IRV are
determined There are few comparable proper-
ties particularly for single-family homes and
luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-
sible to calculate the market rents that underlie
the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and
sometimes quite complicated assessment
methods to calculate IRV This violates classic
tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be
both simple and transparent
Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other
side of the coin
What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-
tem the deductions for mortgage interest and
maintenance expenses As the law stands the
tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners
to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-
pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-
ment could be more pragmatic about mort-
gage interest There are three main reasons
why deductions for owner-occupied homes
should be eliminated in our opinion as the
Federal Council is essentially proposing to do
First the deductions give households an incen-
tive to take on too much debt While this is not
necessarily bad in itself it is still not something
the government should be expressly encourag-
ing Second allowing income tax deductions
for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-
errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and
thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-
owners can claim larger interest deductions
thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by
contrast bear the full interest rate risk under
current tenant-landlord law through the refer-
ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair
to permit homeowners to claim deductions for
Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated
Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder
whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-
tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve
return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the
current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term
investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-
ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the
mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are
equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-
ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we
strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their
eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio
Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and
other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not
concentrating all your assets in your home
living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a
single cent
Dubious exceptions from interest
deductions
The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its
constitutional mandate to encourage home
ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-
ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up
to a certain franc limit over 10 years This
ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-
efi t high-income households which obviously
misses the point and should therefore be re-
considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-
rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest
income could still off set mortgage interest
against the full amount of their interest in-
come This is also a one-sided policy that large-
ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-
gage interest from their taxable interest and
securities income
The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-
come tax deductions for maintenance costs as
well as private mortgage interest This is a step
in the right direction A er all tenants do not
receive tax breaks on their living expenses
However the Federal Council is making excep-
tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency
and environmental protection measures that
meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very
labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-
ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for
each individual homeowner A more effi cient
method would directly subsidize eco-friendly
energy systems and construction materials
The tax on imputed rental values
should be abolished
The current tax on IRV makes little economic
sense in our view If it were abolished there
would be no need for many deductions and
exceptions which is why we think the govern-
ment should simplify the tax code by com-
pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership
That way homeowners can preserve both their
homes and their sanity around tax time
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 2011 15
Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game
An estimated 520000 withdrawals have
been made from retirement accounts since
1995 The withdrawn capital is expected
to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010
The possible impact on future retirement
benefi ts remains unknown but the risks
should not be ignored
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-
ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August
1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home
ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely
low compared to other countries Raising it is
an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also
policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-
ter when they claimed the low home owner-
ship rate showed too little was being done to
reach the political goal of widespread home
ownership among the population
Swiss home ownership rate remains low
The home ownership rate was 31 percent in
1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-
ership encouragement law began to allow
prospective home buyers to pledge and with-
draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-
manently occupied homes were owner-occu-
pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now
puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent
In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared
to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in
Italy
Why the low ownership rate First condo-
minium ownership was not introduced to
Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss
rental apartment market is relatively effi cient
compared to other countries which dulls the
incentive to own a home So what caused
the spike in the home ownership rate in the
1990s In that decade home prices fell a er
the real estate bubble burst declining sharply
relative to national income Third Switzer-
landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older
ndash the cohort where home ownership is most
common Finally people have been free to
pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-
sets for home purchases since 1995 However
it is not clear whether this statutory option
has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a
bandwagon eff ect
Occupational pensions unsuitable for
encouraging home ownership
The explicit goal of the occupational pension
system ndash established in 1985 to supplement
the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system
(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of
living when the policyholder retires dies or
becomes disabled As fully funded schemes
occupational pensions represent the most
politically attractive pot of money for encour-
aging home ownership Withdrawing pension
assets however does more than reduce
future retirement benefi ts It can also lower
death and disability benefi ts if they depend
on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned
contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals
are a poor vehicle for encouraging home
ownership since they clearly undermine the
main purpose of occupational pensions to
provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in
retirement age
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as
follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves
the purpose of occupational pensions because
living expenses represent one of the largest
costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow
It ignores the need to distribute investment
risks and choose assets that off er security and
an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-
eral Act on Occupational Pensions People
who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-
Thomas Veraguth
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
In focus Residential real estate
350040004500
3000
15001000
20002500
0500
4500040000
3000035000
1500010000
2000025000
05000
0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003
Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR
Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995
Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)
Total annual amount in CHF million
UBS real estate focus January 201116
posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and
considerable risks of the real estate market for
years at a time
Total sum withdrawn remains low
The statistics tell a nuanced story of how
withdrawals are being used to fi nance home
purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-
al pension schemes has nearly doubled since
1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in
2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-
lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs
withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-
resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in
occupational pension schemes over the past
15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-
count for around 05 percent of the total capi-
tal invested in occupational pensions By com-
parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the
single-family homes and condominiums in
Switzerland had an aggregate market value of
124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages
taken out by private households amounted to
566 billion francs in September 2010
The withdrawal statistics also harbor another
surprise the continuity of the amounts with-
drawn The average withdrawal has remained
within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000
Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked
in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-
sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for
680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-
counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred
by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of
annuities and lump-sum payments and 167
percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and
cash payments The 2009 percentages were
roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively
Moderation is key
From an economic perspective certain poten-
tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-
sion to allow consumers to make early pen-
sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily
consumers have exercised considerable self-
restraint as indicated by the data on the
number of withdrawals and total money with-
drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all
members of occupational pension schemes
make withdrawals each year This is in part
due to restrictions inserted in the legislation
by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals
As a result we are cautiously optimistic about
the future of home fi nancing but recommend
pledges over withdrawals
In focus Residential real estate
Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals
Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since
1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to
prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes
make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-
portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are
nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-
ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common
for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However
there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys
by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-
theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-
ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home
Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of
Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-
ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007
For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed
carefully when purchasing a home
UBS real estate focus January 2011 17
Full-service living ndash a hot new trend
Full-service living is an innovative concept
that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for
greater comfort and higher living stand-
ards Already established abroad this
model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-
zerland
Greater prosperity and a steadily growing
number of small households are driving demand
for new models of living with integrated ser-
vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-
nants and senior citizens The upper middle
class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income
no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free
time on tedious errands or exhausting chores
Even young families are increasingly discovering
the modelrsquos benefi ts
Growing importance of new models
of living
Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-
ing needs Over the years we have seen the
emergence of nursing homes independent liv-
ing and assisted-living communities There is
now an even richer more diverse menu of
options ranging from boarding houses to full-
service living While this latest model may re-
main a niche product for several years we think
demand will stay strong for the foreseeable
future thanks to demographic change growing
interest in support and services and a greater
overall need for higher living standards Of-
ferings need to be aligned with target group
needs and interests though Our experience
with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project
shows that models should be tailored to both
the target group and local conditions
James ndash Full-service Living
The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the
brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-
erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the
fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex
in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009
the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-
sion Fund Assets built a second James complex
in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-
four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-
cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third
James complex is under construction in Winter-
thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-
2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-
ping thanks to a direct connection between the
roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center
restaurants and a parking garage
The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects
todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not
only modern communication technologies (In-
ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-
tion (James is physically on the premises) At a
James complex rent includes a wide array of
concierge services such as receiving guests
accepting packages and purchases or reserving
concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to
mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services
such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet
care plant watering or vacation service These
services are billed separately under a pay-as-
you-go scheme
Components of full-service living
Home concierge services are new to Switzer-
land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-
nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it
mainly designates French superintendents or
caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-
cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-
sive personal services for tenants and visitors as
well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-
tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-
yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-
ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The
James concept embraces this principle When
tenants and visitors enter a James apartment
complex it should be readily apparent that this
is more than just a place to live The James ndash
Full-service Living concept can also adapt to
Patric Caillat
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Possible concept for full-service living
Source UBS GRE Switzerland
The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo
Living as a core service
Basic services included in rent
Agrave la carte services
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 201118
residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time
thanks to its extensive modular service off ering
The program is based on three components
residential use integrated basic services and
additional agrave la carte services
The apartment is the core service and as such
must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in
terms of location infrastructure amenities and
aesthetics The rent must also include several
basic services that are important to the target
groups This diff erentiates James from a regular
apartment complex Residents can also use
many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply
pick the services they need and pay for them
separately which makes the apartment some-
thing like a hotel To be successful the concept
has to combine these elements intelligently
while taking local circumstances into account
Other models on the market
Several models with slightly diff erent approach-
es have been launched in recent years Besides
James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-
set Management other full-service models in-
clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real
Estate Asset Management department and
ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG
Combining services with attractive living can
give a property its own unique character and
ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps
support intelligent real estate marketing How-
ever full-service living can only work if the
services benefi t users operators and owners
alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-
perience with such models it certainly has the
conditions and outlook needed to achieve a
win-win situation
Added value at an attractive price
ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work
users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat
value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to
tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er
all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-
cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go
scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start
Who is the target audience What services do they want While this
might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos
success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are
handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts
will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-
tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo
changing needs
In focus Residential real estate
Commercial real estate and special uses
The market separates the wheat from the chaff
UBS real estate focus January 201120
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in rela-
tively good shape We expect price pres-
sure from tenants to widen the perform-
ance gap between central and peripheral
locations
Offi ce space is the most important sector of
the Swiss commercial real estate market The
commercial property market was estimated
to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end
of 2009 according to Investment Property
Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this
total was offi ce space while retail properties
made up 377 percent and industrial real es-
tate 35 percent
Stable demand factors
Besides being large the offi ce property seg-
ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-
ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the
total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of
Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and
business services represent over 18 percent of
total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-
centage compared to other countries The
Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-
where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-
tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-
tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos
growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still
remained positive Part-time employment is
also becoming more widespread in Switzer-
land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies
are focusing on boosting employee productiv-
ity Future employment growth looks likely to
be moderate as a result
Rising importance of quality
The prospect of slow but positive employment
growth highlights the importance of analyzing
the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates
range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is
moderate compared to other countries and has
recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In
crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found
that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce
completions have been much higher in Ger-
man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-
zerland in recent years In 201112 around
150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the
market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2
in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the
various kinds of offi ce space on the market For
example we are skeptical about the medium-
term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-
erties (poor access to transportation and low
availability of services) on the periphery of cit-
ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-
geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-
ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be
strong expanding the labor market companies
still need to provide attractive workplaces for
their employees Easily accessible central offi ce
locations will gain even more importance Un-
der these pressures the offi ce market should
start to more clearly separate the wheat from
the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce
space is scarce should perform well while
non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle
to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral
locations will be squeezed since they are main-
ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce
functions Through renovation or new con-
structions in contrast downtown locations
should see further appreciation and attractive
returns For this reason we think rents for
high-end offi ce space should rise further
Positive appreciation rate
Despite falling interest rates and government
bond yields initial yields in the institutional
offi ce segment have hardly budged according
to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and
2009 In contrast to many European real estate
markets the appreciation rate is still positively
Commercial real estate and special uses
5
34
0ndash1
12
ndash3ndash2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
No drop in employment in Switzerland
Source Experian Business Services June 2010
Employment growth in financial and business services in percent
SwitzerlandEU15
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 21
correlated with the rental growth rate in the
Swiss offi ce property market The percentage
increase in the granting of commercial mort-
gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation
rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss
commercial property market is on solid ground
The fall in government bond yields has height-
ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-
ties driving investment demand for this asset
class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end
UBS real estate focus January 2011 13
Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory
The taxation of imputed rental values as
income is controversial For years there
have been heated discussions about this
issue Last summer the Federal Council
threw its hat in the ring supporting a
total abolition of the tax in order to sim-
plify the tax code
In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-
sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-
tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The
Federal Council rejected the initiative and now
aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-
ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-
posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-
tions on private interest payments with certain
exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer
be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-
ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-
tion measures
Root of the problem taxing imputed
rental values
Interestingly the endless debate about IRV
taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and
other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-
ed as parts of one indivisible system However
we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-
nomic eff ects by examining each component
separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents
the rent revenues that homeowners could the-
oretically earn if they rented out their home on
the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-
ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-
ants and homeowners on an equal footing on
the premise that homeowners are better off
economically since they live rent-free
This is a specious argument in our view First
tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-
ment risk for their home and no opportunity
costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on
assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-
ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo
risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies
a he y property gains tax on any capital gains
Losses by contrast are fully borne by the
property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor
job of evening the odds between tenants and
homeowners Simply consider how IRV are
determined There are few comparable proper-
ties particularly for single-family homes and
luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-
sible to calculate the market rents that underlie
the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and
sometimes quite complicated assessment
methods to calculate IRV This violates classic
tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be
both simple and transparent
Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other
side of the coin
What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-
tem the deductions for mortgage interest and
maintenance expenses As the law stands the
tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners
to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-
pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-
ment could be more pragmatic about mort-
gage interest There are three main reasons
why deductions for owner-occupied homes
should be eliminated in our opinion as the
Federal Council is essentially proposing to do
First the deductions give households an incen-
tive to take on too much debt While this is not
necessarily bad in itself it is still not something
the government should be expressly encourag-
ing Second allowing income tax deductions
for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-
errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and
thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-
owners can claim larger interest deductions
thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by
contrast bear the full interest rate risk under
current tenant-landlord law through the refer-
ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair
to permit homeowners to claim deductions for
Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated
Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder
whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-
tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve
return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the
current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term
investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-
ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the
mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are
equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-
ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we
strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their
eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio
Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and
other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not
concentrating all your assets in your home
living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a
single cent
Dubious exceptions from interest
deductions
The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its
constitutional mandate to encourage home
ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-
ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up
to a certain franc limit over 10 years This
ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-
efi t high-income households which obviously
misses the point and should therefore be re-
considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-
rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest
income could still off set mortgage interest
against the full amount of their interest in-
come This is also a one-sided policy that large-
ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-
gage interest from their taxable interest and
securities income
The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-
come tax deductions for maintenance costs as
well as private mortgage interest This is a step
in the right direction A er all tenants do not
receive tax breaks on their living expenses
However the Federal Council is making excep-
tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency
and environmental protection measures that
meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very
labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-
ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for
each individual homeowner A more effi cient
method would directly subsidize eco-friendly
energy systems and construction materials
The tax on imputed rental values
should be abolished
The current tax on IRV makes little economic
sense in our view If it were abolished there
would be no need for many deductions and
exceptions which is why we think the govern-
ment should simplify the tax code by com-
pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership
That way homeowners can preserve both their
homes and their sanity around tax time
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 2011 15
Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game
An estimated 520000 withdrawals have
been made from retirement accounts since
1995 The withdrawn capital is expected
to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010
The possible impact on future retirement
benefi ts remains unknown but the risks
should not be ignored
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-
ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August
1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home
ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely
low compared to other countries Raising it is
an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also
policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-
ter when they claimed the low home owner-
ship rate showed too little was being done to
reach the political goal of widespread home
ownership among the population
Swiss home ownership rate remains low
The home ownership rate was 31 percent in
1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-
ership encouragement law began to allow
prospective home buyers to pledge and with-
draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-
manently occupied homes were owner-occu-
pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now
puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent
In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared
to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in
Italy
Why the low ownership rate First condo-
minium ownership was not introduced to
Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss
rental apartment market is relatively effi cient
compared to other countries which dulls the
incentive to own a home So what caused
the spike in the home ownership rate in the
1990s In that decade home prices fell a er
the real estate bubble burst declining sharply
relative to national income Third Switzer-
landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older
ndash the cohort where home ownership is most
common Finally people have been free to
pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-
sets for home purchases since 1995 However
it is not clear whether this statutory option
has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a
bandwagon eff ect
Occupational pensions unsuitable for
encouraging home ownership
The explicit goal of the occupational pension
system ndash established in 1985 to supplement
the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system
(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of
living when the policyholder retires dies or
becomes disabled As fully funded schemes
occupational pensions represent the most
politically attractive pot of money for encour-
aging home ownership Withdrawing pension
assets however does more than reduce
future retirement benefi ts It can also lower
death and disability benefi ts if they depend
on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned
contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals
are a poor vehicle for encouraging home
ownership since they clearly undermine the
main purpose of occupational pensions to
provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in
retirement age
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as
follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves
the purpose of occupational pensions because
living expenses represent one of the largest
costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow
It ignores the need to distribute investment
risks and choose assets that off er security and
an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-
eral Act on Occupational Pensions People
who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-
Thomas Veraguth
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
In focus Residential real estate
350040004500
3000
15001000
20002500
0500
4500040000
3000035000
1500010000
2000025000
05000
0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003
Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR
Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995
Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)
Total annual amount in CHF million
UBS real estate focus January 201116
posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and
considerable risks of the real estate market for
years at a time
Total sum withdrawn remains low
The statistics tell a nuanced story of how
withdrawals are being used to fi nance home
purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-
al pension schemes has nearly doubled since
1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in
2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-
lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs
withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-
resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in
occupational pension schemes over the past
15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-
count for around 05 percent of the total capi-
tal invested in occupational pensions By com-
parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the
single-family homes and condominiums in
Switzerland had an aggregate market value of
124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages
taken out by private households amounted to
566 billion francs in September 2010
The withdrawal statistics also harbor another
surprise the continuity of the amounts with-
drawn The average withdrawal has remained
within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000
Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked
in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-
sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for
680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-
counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred
by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of
annuities and lump-sum payments and 167
percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and
cash payments The 2009 percentages were
roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively
Moderation is key
From an economic perspective certain poten-
tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-
sion to allow consumers to make early pen-
sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily
consumers have exercised considerable self-
restraint as indicated by the data on the
number of withdrawals and total money with-
drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all
members of occupational pension schemes
make withdrawals each year This is in part
due to restrictions inserted in the legislation
by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals
As a result we are cautiously optimistic about
the future of home fi nancing but recommend
pledges over withdrawals
In focus Residential real estate
Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals
Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since
1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to
prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes
make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-
portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are
nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-
ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common
for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However
there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys
by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-
theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-
ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home
Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of
Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-
ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007
For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed
carefully when purchasing a home
UBS real estate focus January 2011 17
Full-service living ndash a hot new trend
Full-service living is an innovative concept
that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for
greater comfort and higher living stand-
ards Already established abroad this
model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-
zerland
Greater prosperity and a steadily growing
number of small households are driving demand
for new models of living with integrated ser-
vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-
nants and senior citizens The upper middle
class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income
no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free
time on tedious errands or exhausting chores
Even young families are increasingly discovering
the modelrsquos benefi ts
Growing importance of new models
of living
Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-
ing needs Over the years we have seen the
emergence of nursing homes independent liv-
ing and assisted-living communities There is
now an even richer more diverse menu of
options ranging from boarding houses to full-
service living While this latest model may re-
main a niche product for several years we think
demand will stay strong for the foreseeable
future thanks to demographic change growing
interest in support and services and a greater
overall need for higher living standards Of-
ferings need to be aligned with target group
needs and interests though Our experience
with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project
shows that models should be tailored to both
the target group and local conditions
James ndash Full-service Living
The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the
brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-
erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the
fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex
in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009
the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-
sion Fund Assets built a second James complex
in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-
four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-
cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third
James complex is under construction in Winter-
thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-
2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-
ping thanks to a direct connection between the
roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center
restaurants and a parking garage
The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects
todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not
only modern communication technologies (In-
ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-
tion (James is physically on the premises) At a
James complex rent includes a wide array of
concierge services such as receiving guests
accepting packages and purchases or reserving
concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to
mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services
such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet
care plant watering or vacation service These
services are billed separately under a pay-as-
you-go scheme
Components of full-service living
Home concierge services are new to Switzer-
land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-
nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it
mainly designates French superintendents or
caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-
cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-
sive personal services for tenants and visitors as
well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-
tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-
yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-
ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The
James concept embraces this principle When
tenants and visitors enter a James apartment
complex it should be readily apparent that this
is more than just a place to live The James ndash
Full-service Living concept can also adapt to
Patric Caillat
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Possible concept for full-service living
Source UBS GRE Switzerland
The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo
Living as a core service
Basic services included in rent
Agrave la carte services
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 201118
residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time
thanks to its extensive modular service off ering
The program is based on three components
residential use integrated basic services and
additional agrave la carte services
The apartment is the core service and as such
must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in
terms of location infrastructure amenities and
aesthetics The rent must also include several
basic services that are important to the target
groups This diff erentiates James from a regular
apartment complex Residents can also use
many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply
pick the services they need and pay for them
separately which makes the apartment some-
thing like a hotel To be successful the concept
has to combine these elements intelligently
while taking local circumstances into account
Other models on the market
Several models with slightly diff erent approach-
es have been launched in recent years Besides
James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-
set Management other full-service models in-
clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real
Estate Asset Management department and
ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG
Combining services with attractive living can
give a property its own unique character and
ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps
support intelligent real estate marketing How-
ever full-service living can only work if the
services benefi t users operators and owners
alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-
perience with such models it certainly has the
conditions and outlook needed to achieve a
win-win situation
Added value at an attractive price
ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work
users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat
value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to
tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er
all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-
cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go
scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start
Who is the target audience What services do they want While this
might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos
success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are
handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts
will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-
tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo
changing needs
In focus Residential real estate
Commercial real estate and special uses
The market separates the wheat from the chaff
UBS real estate focus January 201120
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in rela-
tively good shape We expect price pres-
sure from tenants to widen the perform-
ance gap between central and peripheral
locations
Offi ce space is the most important sector of
the Swiss commercial real estate market The
commercial property market was estimated
to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end
of 2009 according to Investment Property
Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this
total was offi ce space while retail properties
made up 377 percent and industrial real es-
tate 35 percent
Stable demand factors
Besides being large the offi ce property seg-
ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-
ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the
total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of
Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and
business services represent over 18 percent of
total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-
centage compared to other countries The
Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-
where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-
tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-
tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos
growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still
remained positive Part-time employment is
also becoming more widespread in Switzer-
land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies
are focusing on boosting employee productiv-
ity Future employment growth looks likely to
be moderate as a result
Rising importance of quality
The prospect of slow but positive employment
growth highlights the importance of analyzing
the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates
range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is
moderate compared to other countries and has
recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In
crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found
that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce
completions have been much higher in Ger-
man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-
zerland in recent years In 201112 around
150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the
market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2
in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the
various kinds of offi ce space on the market For
example we are skeptical about the medium-
term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-
erties (poor access to transportation and low
availability of services) on the periphery of cit-
ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-
geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-
ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be
strong expanding the labor market companies
still need to provide attractive workplaces for
their employees Easily accessible central offi ce
locations will gain even more importance Un-
der these pressures the offi ce market should
start to more clearly separate the wheat from
the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce
space is scarce should perform well while
non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle
to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral
locations will be squeezed since they are main-
ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce
functions Through renovation or new con-
structions in contrast downtown locations
should see further appreciation and attractive
returns For this reason we think rents for
high-end offi ce space should rise further
Positive appreciation rate
Despite falling interest rates and government
bond yields initial yields in the institutional
offi ce segment have hardly budged according
to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and
2009 In contrast to many European real estate
markets the appreciation rate is still positively
Commercial real estate and special uses
5
34
0ndash1
12
ndash3ndash2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
No drop in employment in Switzerland
Source Experian Business Services June 2010
Employment growth in financial and business services in percent
SwitzerlandEU15
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 21
correlated with the rental growth rate in the
Swiss offi ce property market The percentage
increase in the granting of commercial mort-
gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation
rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss
commercial property market is on solid ground
The fall in government bond yields has height-
ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-
ties driving investment demand for this asset
class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end
UBS real estate focus January 2011 13
Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory
The taxation of imputed rental values as
income is controversial For years there
have been heated discussions about this
issue Last summer the Federal Council
threw its hat in the ring supporting a
total abolition of the tax in order to sim-
plify the tax code
In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-
sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-
tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The
Federal Council rejected the initiative and now
aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-
ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-
posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-
tions on private interest payments with certain
exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer
be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-
ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-
tion measures
Root of the problem taxing imputed
rental values
Interestingly the endless debate about IRV
taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and
other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-
ed as parts of one indivisible system However
we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-
nomic eff ects by examining each component
separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents
the rent revenues that homeowners could the-
oretically earn if they rented out their home on
the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-
ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-
ants and homeowners on an equal footing on
the premise that homeowners are better off
economically since they live rent-free
This is a specious argument in our view First
tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-
ment risk for their home and no opportunity
costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on
assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-
ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo
risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies
a he y property gains tax on any capital gains
Losses by contrast are fully borne by the
property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor
job of evening the odds between tenants and
homeowners Simply consider how IRV are
determined There are few comparable proper-
ties particularly for single-family homes and
luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-
sible to calculate the market rents that underlie
the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and
sometimes quite complicated assessment
methods to calculate IRV This violates classic
tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be
both simple and transparent
Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other
side of the coin
What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-
tem the deductions for mortgage interest and
maintenance expenses As the law stands the
tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners
to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-
pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-
ment could be more pragmatic about mort-
gage interest There are three main reasons
why deductions for owner-occupied homes
should be eliminated in our opinion as the
Federal Council is essentially proposing to do
First the deductions give households an incen-
tive to take on too much debt While this is not
necessarily bad in itself it is still not something
the government should be expressly encourag-
ing Second allowing income tax deductions
for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-
errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and
thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-
owners can claim larger interest deductions
thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by
contrast bear the full interest rate risk under
current tenant-landlord law through the refer-
ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair
to permit homeowners to claim deductions for
Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated
Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder
whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-
tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve
return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the
current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term
investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-
ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the
mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are
equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-
ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we
strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their
eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio
Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and
other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not
concentrating all your assets in your home
living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a
single cent
Dubious exceptions from interest
deductions
The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its
constitutional mandate to encourage home
ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-
ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up
to a certain franc limit over 10 years This
ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-
efi t high-income households which obviously
misses the point and should therefore be re-
considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-
rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest
income could still off set mortgage interest
against the full amount of their interest in-
come This is also a one-sided policy that large-
ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-
gage interest from their taxable interest and
securities income
The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-
come tax deductions for maintenance costs as
well as private mortgage interest This is a step
in the right direction A er all tenants do not
receive tax breaks on their living expenses
However the Federal Council is making excep-
tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency
and environmental protection measures that
meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very
labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-
ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for
each individual homeowner A more effi cient
method would directly subsidize eco-friendly
energy systems and construction materials
The tax on imputed rental values
should be abolished
The current tax on IRV makes little economic
sense in our view If it were abolished there
would be no need for many deductions and
exceptions which is why we think the govern-
ment should simplify the tax code by com-
pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership
That way homeowners can preserve both their
homes and their sanity around tax time
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 2011 15
Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game
An estimated 520000 withdrawals have
been made from retirement accounts since
1995 The withdrawn capital is expected
to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010
The possible impact on future retirement
benefi ts remains unknown but the risks
should not be ignored
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-
ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August
1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home
ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely
low compared to other countries Raising it is
an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also
policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-
ter when they claimed the low home owner-
ship rate showed too little was being done to
reach the political goal of widespread home
ownership among the population
Swiss home ownership rate remains low
The home ownership rate was 31 percent in
1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-
ership encouragement law began to allow
prospective home buyers to pledge and with-
draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-
manently occupied homes were owner-occu-
pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now
puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent
In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared
to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in
Italy
Why the low ownership rate First condo-
minium ownership was not introduced to
Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss
rental apartment market is relatively effi cient
compared to other countries which dulls the
incentive to own a home So what caused
the spike in the home ownership rate in the
1990s In that decade home prices fell a er
the real estate bubble burst declining sharply
relative to national income Third Switzer-
landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older
ndash the cohort where home ownership is most
common Finally people have been free to
pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-
sets for home purchases since 1995 However
it is not clear whether this statutory option
has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a
bandwagon eff ect
Occupational pensions unsuitable for
encouraging home ownership
The explicit goal of the occupational pension
system ndash established in 1985 to supplement
the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system
(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of
living when the policyholder retires dies or
becomes disabled As fully funded schemes
occupational pensions represent the most
politically attractive pot of money for encour-
aging home ownership Withdrawing pension
assets however does more than reduce
future retirement benefi ts It can also lower
death and disability benefi ts if they depend
on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned
contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals
are a poor vehicle for encouraging home
ownership since they clearly undermine the
main purpose of occupational pensions to
provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in
retirement age
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as
follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves
the purpose of occupational pensions because
living expenses represent one of the largest
costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow
It ignores the need to distribute investment
risks and choose assets that off er security and
an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-
eral Act on Occupational Pensions People
who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-
Thomas Veraguth
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
In focus Residential real estate
350040004500
3000
15001000
20002500
0500
4500040000
3000035000
1500010000
2000025000
05000
0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003
Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR
Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995
Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)
Total annual amount in CHF million
UBS real estate focus January 201116
posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and
considerable risks of the real estate market for
years at a time
Total sum withdrawn remains low
The statistics tell a nuanced story of how
withdrawals are being used to fi nance home
purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-
al pension schemes has nearly doubled since
1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in
2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-
lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs
withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-
resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in
occupational pension schemes over the past
15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-
count for around 05 percent of the total capi-
tal invested in occupational pensions By com-
parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the
single-family homes and condominiums in
Switzerland had an aggregate market value of
124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages
taken out by private households amounted to
566 billion francs in September 2010
The withdrawal statistics also harbor another
surprise the continuity of the amounts with-
drawn The average withdrawal has remained
within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000
Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked
in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-
sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for
680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-
counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred
by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of
annuities and lump-sum payments and 167
percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and
cash payments The 2009 percentages were
roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively
Moderation is key
From an economic perspective certain poten-
tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-
sion to allow consumers to make early pen-
sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily
consumers have exercised considerable self-
restraint as indicated by the data on the
number of withdrawals and total money with-
drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all
members of occupational pension schemes
make withdrawals each year This is in part
due to restrictions inserted in the legislation
by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals
As a result we are cautiously optimistic about
the future of home fi nancing but recommend
pledges over withdrawals
In focus Residential real estate
Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals
Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since
1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to
prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes
make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-
portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are
nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-
ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common
for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However
there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys
by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-
theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-
ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home
Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of
Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-
ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007
For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed
carefully when purchasing a home
UBS real estate focus January 2011 17
Full-service living ndash a hot new trend
Full-service living is an innovative concept
that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for
greater comfort and higher living stand-
ards Already established abroad this
model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-
zerland
Greater prosperity and a steadily growing
number of small households are driving demand
for new models of living with integrated ser-
vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-
nants and senior citizens The upper middle
class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income
no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free
time on tedious errands or exhausting chores
Even young families are increasingly discovering
the modelrsquos benefi ts
Growing importance of new models
of living
Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-
ing needs Over the years we have seen the
emergence of nursing homes independent liv-
ing and assisted-living communities There is
now an even richer more diverse menu of
options ranging from boarding houses to full-
service living While this latest model may re-
main a niche product for several years we think
demand will stay strong for the foreseeable
future thanks to demographic change growing
interest in support and services and a greater
overall need for higher living standards Of-
ferings need to be aligned with target group
needs and interests though Our experience
with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project
shows that models should be tailored to both
the target group and local conditions
James ndash Full-service Living
The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the
brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-
erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the
fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex
in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009
the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-
sion Fund Assets built a second James complex
in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-
four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-
cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third
James complex is under construction in Winter-
thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-
2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-
ping thanks to a direct connection between the
roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center
restaurants and a parking garage
The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects
todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not
only modern communication technologies (In-
ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-
tion (James is physically on the premises) At a
James complex rent includes a wide array of
concierge services such as receiving guests
accepting packages and purchases or reserving
concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to
mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services
such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet
care plant watering or vacation service These
services are billed separately under a pay-as-
you-go scheme
Components of full-service living
Home concierge services are new to Switzer-
land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-
nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it
mainly designates French superintendents or
caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-
cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-
sive personal services for tenants and visitors as
well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-
tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-
yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-
ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The
James concept embraces this principle When
tenants and visitors enter a James apartment
complex it should be readily apparent that this
is more than just a place to live The James ndash
Full-service Living concept can also adapt to
Patric Caillat
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Possible concept for full-service living
Source UBS GRE Switzerland
The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo
Living as a core service
Basic services included in rent
Agrave la carte services
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 201118
residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time
thanks to its extensive modular service off ering
The program is based on three components
residential use integrated basic services and
additional agrave la carte services
The apartment is the core service and as such
must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in
terms of location infrastructure amenities and
aesthetics The rent must also include several
basic services that are important to the target
groups This diff erentiates James from a regular
apartment complex Residents can also use
many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply
pick the services they need and pay for them
separately which makes the apartment some-
thing like a hotel To be successful the concept
has to combine these elements intelligently
while taking local circumstances into account
Other models on the market
Several models with slightly diff erent approach-
es have been launched in recent years Besides
James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-
set Management other full-service models in-
clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real
Estate Asset Management department and
ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG
Combining services with attractive living can
give a property its own unique character and
ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps
support intelligent real estate marketing How-
ever full-service living can only work if the
services benefi t users operators and owners
alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-
perience with such models it certainly has the
conditions and outlook needed to achieve a
win-win situation
Added value at an attractive price
ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work
users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat
value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to
tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er
all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-
cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go
scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start
Who is the target audience What services do they want While this
might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos
success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are
handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts
will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-
tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo
changing needs
In focus Residential real estate
Commercial real estate and special uses
The market separates the wheat from the chaff
UBS real estate focus January 201120
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in rela-
tively good shape We expect price pres-
sure from tenants to widen the perform-
ance gap between central and peripheral
locations
Offi ce space is the most important sector of
the Swiss commercial real estate market The
commercial property market was estimated
to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end
of 2009 according to Investment Property
Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this
total was offi ce space while retail properties
made up 377 percent and industrial real es-
tate 35 percent
Stable demand factors
Besides being large the offi ce property seg-
ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-
ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the
total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of
Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and
business services represent over 18 percent of
total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-
centage compared to other countries The
Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-
where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-
tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-
tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos
growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still
remained positive Part-time employment is
also becoming more widespread in Switzer-
land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies
are focusing on boosting employee productiv-
ity Future employment growth looks likely to
be moderate as a result
Rising importance of quality
The prospect of slow but positive employment
growth highlights the importance of analyzing
the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates
range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is
moderate compared to other countries and has
recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In
crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found
that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce
completions have been much higher in Ger-
man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-
zerland in recent years In 201112 around
150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the
market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2
in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the
various kinds of offi ce space on the market For
example we are skeptical about the medium-
term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-
erties (poor access to transportation and low
availability of services) on the periphery of cit-
ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-
geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-
ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be
strong expanding the labor market companies
still need to provide attractive workplaces for
their employees Easily accessible central offi ce
locations will gain even more importance Un-
der these pressures the offi ce market should
start to more clearly separate the wheat from
the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce
space is scarce should perform well while
non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle
to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral
locations will be squeezed since they are main-
ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce
functions Through renovation or new con-
structions in contrast downtown locations
should see further appreciation and attractive
returns For this reason we think rents for
high-end offi ce space should rise further
Positive appreciation rate
Despite falling interest rates and government
bond yields initial yields in the institutional
offi ce segment have hardly budged according
to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and
2009 In contrast to many European real estate
markets the appreciation rate is still positively
Commercial real estate and special uses
5
34
0ndash1
12
ndash3ndash2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
No drop in employment in Switzerland
Source Experian Business Services June 2010
Employment growth in financial and business services in percent
SwitzerlandEU15
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 21
correlated with the rental growth rate in the
Swiss offi ce property market The percentage
increase in the granting of commercial mort-
gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation
rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss
commercial property market is on solid ground
The fall in government bond yields has height-
ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-
ties driving investment demand for this asset
class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end
UBS real estate focus January 2011 13
Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory
The taxation of imputed rental values as
income is controversial For years there
have been heated discussions about this
issue Last summer the Federal Council
threw its hat in the ring supporting a
total abolition of the tax in order to sim-
plify the tax code
In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-
sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-
tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The
Federal Council rejected the initiative and now
aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-
ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-
posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-
tions on private interest payments with certain
exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer
be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-
ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-
tion measures
Root of the problem taxing imputed
rental values
Interestingly the endless debate about IRV
taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and
other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-
ed as parts of one indivisible system However
we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-
nomic eff ects by examining each component
separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents
the rent revenues that homeowners could the-
oretically earn if they rented out their home on
the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-
ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-
ants and homeowners on an equal footing on
the premise that homeowners are better off
economically since they live rent-free
This is a specious argument in our view First
tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-
ment risk for their home and no opportunity
costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on
assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-
ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo
risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies
a he y property gains tax on any capital gains
Losses by contrast are fully borne by the
property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor
job of evening the odds between tenants and
homeowners Simply consider how IRV are
determined There are few comparable proper-
ties particularly for single-family homes and
luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-
sible to calculate the market rents that underlie
the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and
sometimes quite complicated assessment
methods to calculate IRV This violates classic
tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be
both simple and transparent
Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other
side of the coin
What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-
tem the deductions for mortgage interest and
maintenance expenses As the law stands the
tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners
to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-
pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-
ment could be more pragmatic about mort-
gage interest There are three main reasons
why deductions for owner-occupied homes
should be eliminated in our opinion as the
Federal Council is essentially proposing to do
First the deductions give households an incen-
tive to take on too much debt While this is not
necessarily bad in itself it is still not something
the government should be expressly encourag-
ing Second allowing income tax deductions
for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-
errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and
thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-
owners can claim larger interest deductions
thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by
contrast bear the full interest rate risk under
current tenant-landlord law through the refer-
ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair
to permit homeowners to claim deductions for
Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated
Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder
whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-
tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve
return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the
current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term
investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-
ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the
mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are
equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-
ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we
strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their
eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio
Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and
other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not
concentrating all your assets in your home
living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a
single cent
Dubious exceptions from interest
deductions
The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its
constitutional mandate to encourage home
ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-
ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up
to a certain franc limit over 10 years This
ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-
efi t high-income households which obviously
misses the point and should therefore be re-
considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-
rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest
income could still off set mortgage interest
against the full amount of their interest in-
come This is also a one-sided policy that large-
ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-
gage interest from their taxable interest and
securities income
The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-
come tax deductions for maintenance costs as
well as private mortgage interest This is a step
in the right direction A er all tenants do not
receive tax breaks on their living expenses
However the Federal Council is making excep-
tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency
and environmental protection measures that
meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very
labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-
ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for
each individual homeowner A more effi cient
method would directly subsidize eco-friendly
energy systems and construction materials
The tax on imputed rental values
should be abolished
The current tax on IRV makes little economic
sense in our view If it were abolished there
would be no need for many deductions and
exceptions which is why we think the govern-
ment should simplify the tax code by com-
pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership
That way homeowners can preserve both their
homes and their sanity around tax time
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 2011 15
Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game
An estimated 520000 withdrawals have
been made from retirement accounts since
1995 The withdrawn capital is expected
to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010
The possible impact on future retirement
benefi ts remains unknown but the risks
should not be ignored
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-
ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August
1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home
ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely
low compared to other countries Raising it is
an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also
policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-
ter when they claimed the low home owner-
ship rate showed too little was being done to
reach the political goal of widespread home
ownership among the population
Swiss home ownership rate remains low
The home ownership rate was 31 percent in
1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-
ership encouragement law began to allow
prospective home buyers to pledge and with-
draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-
manently occupied homes were owner-occu-
pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now
puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent
In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared
to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in
Italy
Why the low ownership rate First condo-
minium ownership was not introduced to
Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss
rental apartment market is relatively effi cient
compared to other countries which dulls the
incentive to own a home So what caused
the spike in the home ownership rate in the
1990s In that decade home prices fell a er
the real estate bubble burst declining sharply
relative to national income Third Switzer-
landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older
ndash the cohort where home ownership is most
common Finally people have been free to
pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-
sets for home purchases since 1995 However
it is not clear whether this statutory option
has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a
bandwagon eff ect
Occupational pensions unsuitable for
encouraging home ownership
The explicit goal of the occupational pension
system ndash established in 1985 to supplement
the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system
(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of
living when the policyholder retires dies or
becomes disabled As fully funded schemes
occupational pensions represent the most
politically attractive pot of money for encour-
aging home ownership Withdrawing pension
assets however does more than reduce
future retirement benefi ts It can also lower
death and disability benefi ts if they depend
on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned
contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals
are a poor vehicle for encouraging home
ownership since they clearly undermine the
main purpose of occupational pensions to
provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in
retirement age
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as
follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves
the purpose of occupational pensions because
living expenses represent one of the largest
costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow
It ignores the need to distribute investment
risks and choose assets that off er security and
an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-
eral Act on Occupational Pensions People
who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-
Thomas Veraguth
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
In focus Residential real estate
350040004500
3000
15001000
20002500
0500
4500040000
3000035000
1500010000
2000025000
05000
0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003
Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR
Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995
Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)
Total annual amount in CHF million
UBS real estate focus January 201116
posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and
considerable risks of the real estate market for
years at a time
Total sum withdrawn remains low
The statistics tell a nuanced story of how
withdrawals are being used to fi nance home
purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-
al pension schemes has nearly doubled since
1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in
2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-
lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs
withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-
resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in
occupational pension schemes over the past
15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-
count for around 05 percent of the total capi-
tal invested in occupational pensions By com-
parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the
single-family homes and condominiums in
Switzerland had an aggregate market value of
124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages
taken out by private households amounted to
566 billion francs in September 2010
The withdrawal statistics also harbor another
surprise the continuity of the amounts with-
drawn The average withdrawal has remained
within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000
Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked
in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-
sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for
680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-
counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred
by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of
annuities and lump-sum payments and 167
percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and
cash payments The 2009 percentages were
roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively
Moderation is key
From an economic perspective certain poten-
tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-
sion to allow consumers to make early pen-
sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily
consumers have exercised considerable self-
restraint as indicated by the data on the
number of withdrawals and total money with-
drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all
members of occupational pension schemes
make withdrawals each year This is in part
due to restrictions inserted in the legislation
by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals
As a result we are cautiously optimistic about
the future of home fi nancing but recommend
pledges over withdrawals
In focus Residential real estate
Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals
Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since
1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to
prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes
make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-
portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are
nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-
ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common
for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However
there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys
by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-
theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-
ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home
Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of
Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-
ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007
For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed
carefully when purchasing a home
UBS real estate focus January 2011 17
Full-service living ndash a hot new trend
Full-service living is an innovative concept
that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for
greater comfort and higher living stand-
ards Already established abroad this
model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-
zerland
Greater prosperity and a steadily growing
number of small households are driving demand
for new models of living with integrated ser-
vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-
nants and senior citizens The upper middle
class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income
no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free
time on tedious errands or exhausting chores
Even young families are increasingly discovering
the modelrsquos benefi ts
Growing importance of new models
of living
Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-
ing needs Over the years we have seen the
emergence of nursing homes independent liv-
ing and assisted-living communities There is
now an even richer more diverse menu of
options ranging from boarding houses to full-
service living While this latest model may re-
main a niche product for several years we think
demand will stay strong for the foreseeable
future thanks to demographic change growing
interest in support and services and a greater
overall need for higher living standards Of-
ferings need to be aligned with target group
needs and interests though Our experience
with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project
shows that models should be tailored to both
the target group and local conditions
James ndash Full-service Living
The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the
brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-
erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the
fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex
in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009
the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-
sion Fund Assets built a second James complex
in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-
four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-
cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third
James complex is under construction in Winter-
thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-
2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-
ping thanks to a direct connection between the
roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center
restaurants and a parking garage
The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects
todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not
only modern communication technologies (In-
ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-
tion (James is physically on the premises) At a
James complex rent includes a wide array of
concierge services such as receiving guests
accepting packages and purchases or reserving
concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to
mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services
such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet
care plant watering or vacation service These
services are billed separately under a pay-as-
you-go scheme
Components of full-service living
Home concierge services are new to Switzer-
land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-
nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it
mainly designates French superintendents or
caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-
cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-
sive personal services for tenants and visitors as
well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-
tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-
yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-
ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The
James concept embraces this principle When
tenants and visitors enter a James apartment
complex it should be readily apparent that this
is more than just a place to live The James ndash
Full-service Living concept can also adapt to
Patric Caillat
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Possible concept for full-service living
Source UBS GRE Switzerland
The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo
Living as a core service
Basic services included in rent
Agrave la carte services
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 201118
residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time
thanks to its extensive modular service off ering
The program is based on three components
residential use integrated basic services and
additional agrave la carte services
The apartment is the core service and as such
must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in
terms of location infrastructure amenities and
aesthetics The rent must also include several
basic services that are important to the target
groups This diff erentiates James from a regular
apartment complex Residents can also use
many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply
pick the services they need and pay for them
separately which makes the apartment some-
thing like a hotel To be successful the concept
has to combine these elements intelligently
while taking local circumstances into account
Other models on the market
Several models with slightly diff erent approach-
es have been launched in recent years Besides
James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-
set Management other full-service models in-
clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real
Estate Asset Management department and
ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG
Combining services with attractive living can
give a property its own unique character and
ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps
support intelligent real estate marketing How-
ever full-service living can only work if the
services benefi t users operators and owners
alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-
perience with such models it certainly has the
conditions and outlook needed to achieve a
win-win situation
Added value at an attractive price
ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work
users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat
value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to
tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er
all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-
cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go
scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start
Who is the target audience What services do they want While this
might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos
success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are
handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts
will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-
tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo
changing needs
In focus Residential real estate
Commercial real estate and special uses
The market separates the wheat from the chaff
UBS real estate focus January 201120
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in rela-
tively good shape We expect price pres-
sure from tenants to widen the perform-
ance gap between central and peripheral
locations
Offi ce space is the most important sector of
the Swiss commercial real estate market The
commercial property market was estimated
to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end
of 2009 according to Investment Property
Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this
total was offi ce space while retail properties
made up 377 percent and industrial real es-
tate 35 percent
Stable demand factors
Besides being large the offi ce property seg-
ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-
ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the
total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of
Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and
business services represent over 18 percent of
total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-
centage compared to other countries The
Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-
where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-
tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-
tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos
growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still
remained positive Part-time employment is
also becoming more widespread in Switzer-
land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies
are focusing on boosting employee productiv-
ity Future employment growth looks likely to
be moderate as a result
Rising importance of quality
The prospect of slow but positive employment
growth highlights the importance of analyzing
the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates
range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is
moderate compared to other countries and has
recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In
crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found
that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce
completions have been much higher in Ger-
man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-
zerland in recent years In 201112 around
150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the
market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2
in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the
various kinds of offi ce space on the market For
example we are skeptical about the medium-
term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-
erties (poor access to transportation and low
availability of services) on the periphery of cit-
ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-
geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-
ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be
strong expanding the labor market companies
still need to provide attractive workplaces for
their employees Easily accessible central offi ce
locations will gain even more importance Un-
der these pressures the offi ce market should
start to more clearly separate the wheat from
the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce
space is scarce should perform well while
non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle
to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral
locations will be squeezed since they are main-
ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce
functions Through renovation or new con-
structions in contrast downtown locations
should see further appreciation and attractive
returns For this reason we think rents for
high-end offi ce space should rise further
Positive appreciation rate
Despite falling interest rates and government
bond yields initial yields in the institutional
offi ce segment have hardly budged according
to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and
2009 In contrast to many European real estate
markets the appreciation rate is still positively
Commercial real estate and special uses
5
34
0ndash1
12
ndash3ndash2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
No drop in employment in Switzerland
Source Experian Business Services June 2010
Employment growth in financial and business services in percent
SwitzerlandEU15
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 21
correlated with the rental growth rate in the
Swiss offi ce property market The percentage
increase in the granting of commercial mort-
gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation
rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss
commercial property market is on solid ground
The fall in government bond yields has height-
ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-
ties driving investment demand for this asset
class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end
UBS real estate focus January 2011 13
Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory
The taxation of imputed rental values as
income is controversial For years there
have been heated discussions about this
issue Last summer the Federal Council
threw its hat in the ring supporting a
total abolition of the tax in order to sim-
plify the tax code
In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-
sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-
tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The
Federal Council rejected the initiative and now
aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-
ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-
posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-
tions on private interest payments with certain
exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer
be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-
ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-
tion measures
Root of the problem taxing imputed
rental values
Interestingly the endless debate about IRV
taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and
other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-
ed as parts of one indivisible system However
we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-
nomic eff ects by examining each component
separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents
the rent revenues that homeowners could the-
oretically earn if they rented out their home on
the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-
ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-
ants and homeowners on an equal footing on
the premise that homeowners are better off
economically since they live rent-free
This is a specious argument in our view First
tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-
ment risk for their home and no opportunity
costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on
assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-
ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo
risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies
a he y property gains tax on any capital gains
Losses by contrast are fully borne by the
property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor
job of evening the odds between tenants and
homeowners Simply consider how IRV are
determined There are few comparable proper-
ties particularly for single-family homes and
luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-
sible to calculate the market rents that underlie
the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and
sometimes quite complicated assessment
methods to calculate IRV This violates classic
tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be
both simple and transparent
Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other
side of the coin
What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-
tem the deductions for mortgage interest and
maintenance expenses As the law stands the
tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners
to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-
pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-
ment could be more pragmatic about mort-
gage interest There are three main reasons
why deductions for owner-occupied homes
should be eliminated in our opinion as the
Federal Council is essentially proposing to do
First the deductions give households an incen-
tive to take on too much debt While this is not
necessarily bad in itself it is still not something
the government should be expressly encourag-
ing Second allowing income tax deductions
for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-
errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and
thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-
owners can claim larger interest deductions
thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by
contrast bear the full interest rate risk under
current tenant-landlord law through the refer-
ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair
to permit homeowners to claim deductions for
Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated
Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder
whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-
tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve
return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the
current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term
investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-
ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the
mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are
equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-
ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we
strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their
eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio
Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and
other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not
concentrating all your assets in your home
living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a
single cent
Dubious exceptions from interest
deductions
The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its
constitutional mandate to encourage home
ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-
ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up
to a certain franc limit over 10 years This
ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-
efi t high-income households which obviously
misses the point and should therefore be re-
considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-
rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest
income could still off set mortgage interest
against the full amount of their interest in-
come This is also a one-sided policy that large-
ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-
gage interest from their taxable interest and
securities income
The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-
come tax deductions for maintenance costs as
well as private mortgage interest This is a step
in the right direction A er all tenants do not
receive tax breaks on their living expenses
However the Federal Council is making excep-
tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency
and environmental protection measures that
meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very
labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-
ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for
each individual homeowner A more effi cient
method would directly subsidize eco-friendly
energy systems and construction materials
The tax on imputed rental values
should be abolished
The current tax on IRV makes little economic
sense in our view If it were abolished there
would be no need for many deductions and
exceptions which is why we think the govern-
ment should simplify the tax code by com-
pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership
That way homeowners can preserve both their
homes and their sanity around tax time
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 2011 15
Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game
An estimated 520000 withdrawals have
been made from retirement accounts since
1995 The withdrawn capital is expected
to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010
The possible impact on future retirement
benefi ts remains unknown but the risks
should not be ignored
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-
ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August
1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home
ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely
low compared to other countries Raising it is
an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also
policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-
ter when they claimed the low home owner-
ship rate showed too little was being done to
reach the political goal of widespread home
ownership among the population
Swiss home ownership rate remains low
The home ownership rate was 31 percent in
1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-
ership encouragement law began to allow
prospective home buyers to pledge and with-
draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-
manently occupied homes were owner-occu-
pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now
puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent
In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared
to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in
Italy
Why the low ownership rate First condo-
minium ownership was not introduced to
Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss
rental apartment market is relatively effi cient
compared to other countries which dulls the
incentive to own a home So what caused
the spike in the home ownership rate in the
1990s In that decade home prices fell a er
the real estate bubble burst declining sharply
relative to national income Third Switzer-
landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older
ndash the cohort where home ownership is most
common Finally people have been free to
pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-
sets for home purchases since 1995 However
it is not clear whether this statutory option
has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a
bandwagon eff ect
Occupational pensions unsuitable for
encouraging home ownership
The explicit goal of the occupational pension
system ndash established in 1985 to supplement
the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system
(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of
living when the policyholder retires dies or
becomes disabled As fully funded schemes
occupational pensions represent the most
politically attractive pot of money for encour-
aging home ownership Withdrawing pension
assets however does more than reduce
future retirement benefi ts It can also lower
death and disability benefi ts if they depend
on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned
contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals
are a poor vehicle for encouraging home
ownership since they clearly undermine the
main purpose of occupational pensions to
provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in
retirement age
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as
follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves
the purpose of occupational pensions because
living expenses represent one of the largest
costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow
It ignores the need to distribute investment
risks and choose assets that off er security and
an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-
eral Act on Occupational Pensions People
who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-
Thomas Veraguth
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
In focus Residential real estate
350040004500
3000
15001000
20002500
0500
4500040000
3000035000
1500010000
2000025000
05000
0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003
Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR
Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995
Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)
Total annual amount in CHF million
UBS real estate focus January 201116
posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and
considerable risks of the real estate market for
years at a time
Total sum withdrawn remains low
The statistics tell a nuanced story of how
withdrawals are being used to fi nance home
purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-
al pension schemes has nearly doubled since
1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in
2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-
lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs
withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-
resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in
occupational pension schemes over the past
15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-
count for around 05 percent of the total capi-
tal invested in occupational pensions By com-
parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the
single-family homes and condominiums in
Switzerland had an aggregate market value of
124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages
taken out by private households amounted to
566 billion francs in September 2010
The withdrawal statistics also harbor another
surprise the continuity of the amounts with-
drawn The average withdrawal has remained
within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000
Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked
in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-
sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for
680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-
counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred
by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of
annuities and lump-sum payments and 167
percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and
cash payments The 2009 percentages were
roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively
Moderation is key
From an economic perspective certain poten-
tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-
sion to allow consumers to make early pen-
sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily
consumers have exercised considerable self-
restraint as indicated by the data on the
number of withdrawals and total money with-
drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all
members of occupational pension schemes
make withdrawals each year This is in part
due to restrictions inserted in the legislation
by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals
As a result we are cautiously optimistic about
the future of home fi nancing but recommend
pledges over withdrawals
In focus Residential real estate
Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals
Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since
1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to
prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes
make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-
portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are
nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-
ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common
for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However
there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys
by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-
theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-
ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home
Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of
Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-
ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007
For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed
carefully when purchasing a home
UBS real estate focus January 2011 17
Full-service living ndash a hot new trend
Full-service living is an innovative concept
that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for
greater comfort and higher living stand-
ards Already established abroad this
model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-
zerland
Greater prosperity and a steadily growing
number of small households are driving demand
for new models of living with integrated ser-
vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-
nants and senior citizens The upper middle
class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income
no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free
time on tedious errands or exhausting chores
Even young families are increasingly discovering
the modelrsquos benefi ts
Growing importance of new models
of living
Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-
ing needs Over the years we have seen the
emergence of nursing homes independent liv-
ing and assisted-living communities There is
now an even richer more diverse menu of
options ranging from boarding houses to full-
service living While this latest model may re-
main a niche product for several years we think
demand will stay strong for the foreseeable
future thanks to demographic change growing
interest in support and services and a greater
overall need for higher living standards Of-
ferings need to be aligned with target group
needs and interests though Our experience
with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project
shows that models should be tailored to both
the target group and local conditions
James ndash Full-service Living
The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the
brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-
erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the
fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex
in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009
the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-
sion Fund Assets built a second James complex
in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-
four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-
cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third
James complex is under construction in Winter-
thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-
2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-
ping thanks to a direct connection between the
roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center
restaurants and a parking garage
The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects
todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not
only modern communication technologies (In-
ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-
tion (James is physically on the premises) At a
James complex rent includes a wide array of
concierge services such as receiving guests
accepting packages and purchases or reserving
concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to
mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services
such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet
care plant watering or vacation service These
services are billed separately under a pay-as-
you-go scheme
Components of full-service living
Home concierge services are new to Switzer-
land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-
nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it
mainly designates French superintendents or
caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-
cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-
sive personal services for tenants and visitors as
well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-
tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-
yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-
ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The
James concept embraces this principle When
tenants and visitors enter a James apartment
complex it should be readily apparent that this
is more than just a place to live The James ndash
Full-service Living concept can also adapt to
Patric Caillat
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Possible concept for full-service living
Source UBS GRE Switzerland
The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo
Living as a core service
Basic services included in rent
Agrave la carte services
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 201118
residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time
thanks to its extensive modular service off ering
The program is based on three components
residential use integrated basic services and
additional agrave la carte services
The apartment is the core service and as such
must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in
terms of location infrastructure amenities and
aesthetics The rent must also include several
basic services that are important to the target
groups This diff erentiates James from a regular
apartment complex Residents can also use
many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply
pick the services they need and pay for them
separately which makes the apartment some-
thing like a hotel To be successful the concept
has to combine these elements intelligently
while taking local circumstances into account
Other models on the market
Several models with slightly diff erent approach-
es have been launched in recent years Besides
James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-
set Management other full-service models in-
clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real
Estate Asset Management department and
ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG
Combining services with attractive living can
give a property its own unique character and
ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps
support intelligent real estate marketing How-
ever full-service living can only work if the
services benefi t users operators and owners
alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-
perience with such models it certainly has the
conditions and outlook needed to achieve a
win-win situation
Added value at an attractive price
ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work
users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat
value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to
tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er
all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-
cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go
scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start
Who is the target audience What services do they want While this
might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos
success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are
handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts
will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-
tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo
changing needs
In focus Residential real estate
Commercial real estate and special uses
The market separates the wheat from the chaff
UBS real estate focus January 201120
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in rela-
tively good shape We expect price pres-
sure from tenants to widen the perform-
ance gap between central and peripheral
locations
Offi ce space is the most important sector of
the Swiss commercial real estate market The
commercial property market was estimated
to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end
of 2009 according to Investment Property
Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this
total was offi ce space while retail properties
made up 377 percent and industrial real es-
tate 35 percent
Stable demand factors
Besides being large the offi ce property seg-
ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-
ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the
total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of
Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and
business services represent over 18 percent of
total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-
centage compared to other countries The
Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-
where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-
tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-
tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos
growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still
remained positive Part-time employment is
also becoming more widespread in Switzer-
land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies
are focusing on boosting employee productiv-
ity Future employment growth looks likely to
be moderate as a result
Rising importance of quality
The prospect of slow but positive employment
growth highlights the importance of analyzing
the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates
range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is
moderate compared to other countries and has
recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In
crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found
that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce
completions have been much higher in Ger-
man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-
zerland in recent years In 201112 around
150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the
market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2
in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the
various kinds of offi ce space on the market For
example we are skeptical about the medium-
term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-
erties (poor access to transportation and low
availability of services) on the periphery of cit-
ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-
geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-
ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be
strong expanding the labor market companies
still need to provide attractive workplaces for
their employees Easily accessible central offi ce
locations will gain even more importance Un-
der these pressures the offi ce market should
start to more clearly separate the wheat from
the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce
space is scarce should perform well while
non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle
to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral
locations will be squeezed since they are main-
ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce
functions Through renovation or new con-
structions in contrast downtown locations
should see further appreciation and attractive
returns For this reason we think rents for
high-end offi ce space should rise further
Positive appreciation rate
Despite falling interest rates and government
bond yields initial yields in the institutional
offi ce segment have hardly budged according
to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and
2009 In contrast to many European real estate
markets the appreciation rate is still positively
Commercial real estate and special uses
5
34
0ndash1
12
ndash3ndash2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
No drop in employment in Switzerland
Source Experian Business Services June 2010
Employment growth in financial and business services in percent
SwitzerlandEU15
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 21
correlated with the rental growth rate in the
Swiss offi ce property market The percentage
increase in the granting of commercial mort-
gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation
rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss
commercial property market is on solid ground
The fall in government bond yields has height-
ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-
ties driving investment demand for this asset
class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end
UBS real estate focus January 2011 13
Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory
The taxation of imputed rental values as
income is controversial For years there
have been heated discussions about this
issue Last summer the Federal Council
threw its hat in the ring supporting a
total abolition of the tax in order to sim-
plify the tax code
In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-
sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-
tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The
Federal Council rejected the initiative and now
aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-
ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-
posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-
tions on private interest payments with certain
exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer
be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-
ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-
tion measures
Root of the problem taxing imputed
rental values
Interestingly the endless debate about IRV
taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and
other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-
ed as parts of one indivisible system However
we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-
nomic eff ects by examining each component
separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents
the rent revenues that homeowners could the-
oretically earn if they rented out their home on
the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-
ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-
ants and homeowners on an equal footing on
the premise that homeowners are better off
economically since they live rent-free
This is a specious argument in our view First
tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-
ment risk for their home and no opportunity
costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on
assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-
ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo
risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies
a he y property gains tax on any capital gains
Losses by contrast are fully borne by the
property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor
job of evening the odds between tenants and
homeowners Simply consider how IRV are
determined There are few comparable proper-
ties particularly for single-family homes and
luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-
sible to calculate the market rents that underlie
the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and
sometimes quite complicated assessment
methods to calculate IRV This violates classic
tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be
both simple and transparent
Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other
side of the coin
What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-
tem the deductions for mortgage interest and
maintenance expenses As the law stands the
tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners
to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-
pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-
ment could be more pragmatic about mort-
gage interest There are three main reasons
why deductions for owner-occupied homes
should be eliminated in our opinion as the
Federal Council is essentially proposing to do
First the deductions give households an incen-
tive to take on too much debt While this is not
necessarily bad in itself it is still not something
the government should be expressly encourag-
ing Second allowing income tax deductions
for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-
errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and
thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-
owners can claim larger interest deductions
thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by
contrast bear the full interest rate risk under
current tenant-landlord law through the refer-
ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair
to permit homeowners to claim deductions for
Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated
Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder
whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-
tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve
return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the
current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term
investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-
ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the
mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are
equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-
ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we
strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their
eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio
Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and
other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not
concentrating all your assets in your home
living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a
single cent
Dubious exceptions from interest
deductions
The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its
constitutional mandate to encourage home
ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-
ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up
to a certain franc limit over 10 years This
ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-
efi t high-income households which obviously
misses the point and should therefore be re-
considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-
rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest
income could still off set mortgage interest
against the full amount of their interest in-
come This is also a one-sided policy that large-
ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-
gage interest from their taxable interest and
securities income
The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-
come tax deductions for maintenance costs as
well as private mortgage interest This is a step
in the right direction A er all tenants do not
receive tax breaks on their living expenses
However the Federal Council is making excep-
tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency
and environmental protection measures that
meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very
labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-
ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for
each individual homeowner A more effi cient
method would directly subsidize eco-friendly
energy systems and construction materials
The tax on imputed rental values
should be abolished
The current tax on IRV makes little economic
sense in our view If it were abolished there
would be no need for many deductions and
exceptions which is why we think the govern-
ment should simplify the tax code by com-
pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership
That way homeowners can preserve both their
homes and their sanity around tax time
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 2011 15
Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game
An estimated 520000 withdrawals have
been made from retirement accounts since
1995 The withdrawn capital is expected
to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010
The possible impact on future retirement
benefi ts remains unknown but the risks
should not be ignored
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-
ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August
1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home
ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely
low compared to other countries Raising it is
an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also
policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-
ter when they claimed the low home owner-
ship rate showed too little was being done to
reach the political goal of widespread home
ownership among the population
Swiss home ownership rate remains low
The home ownership rate was 31 percent in
1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-
ership encouragement law began to allow
prospective home buyers to pledge and with-
draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-
manently occupied homes were owner-occu-
pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now
puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent
In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared
to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in
Italy
Why the low ownership rate First condo-
minium ownership was not introduced to
Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss
rental apartment market is relatively effi cient
compared to other countries which dulls the
incentive to own a home So what caused
the spike in the home ownership rate in the
1990s In that decade home prices fell a er
the real estate bubble burst declining sharply
relative to national income Third Switzer-
landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older
ndash the cohort where home ownership is most
common Finally people have been free to
pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-
sets for home purchases since 1995 However
it is not clear whether this statutory option
has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a
bandwagon eff ect
Occupational pensions unsuitable for
encouraging home ownership
The explicit goal of the occupational pension
system ndash established in 1985 to supplement
the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system
(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of
living when the policyholder retires dies or
becomes disabled As fully funded schemes
occupational pensions represent the most
politically attractive pot of money for encour-
aging home ownership Withdrawing pension
assets however does more than reduce
future retirement benefi ts It can also lower
death and disability benefi ts if they depend
on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned
contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals
are a poor vehicle for encouraging home
ownership since they clearly undermine the
main purpose of occupational pensions to
provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in
retirement age
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as
follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves
the purpose of occupational pensions because
living expenses represent one of the largest
costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow
It ignores the need to distribute investment
risks and choose assets that off er security and
an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-
eral Act on Occupational Pensions People
who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-
Thomas Veraguth
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
In focus Residential real estate
350040004500
3000
15001000
20002500
0500
4500040000
3000035000
1500010000
2000025000
05000
0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003
Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR
Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995
Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)
Total annual amount in CHF million
UBS real estate focus January 201116
posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and
considerable risks of the real estate market for
years at a time
Total sum withdrawn remains low
The statistics tell a nuanced story of how
withdrawals are being used to fi nance home
purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-
al pension schemes has nearly doubled since
1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in
2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-
lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs
withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-
resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in
occupational pension schemes over the past
15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-
count for around 05 percent of the total capi-
tal invested in occupational pensions By com-
parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the
single-family homes and condominiums in
Switzerland had an aggregate market value of
124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages
taken out by private households amounted to
566 billion francs in September 2010
The withdrawal statistics also harbor another
surprise the continuity of the amounts with-
drawn The average withdrawal has remained
within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000
Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked
in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-
sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for
680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-
counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred
by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of
annuities and lump-sum payments and 167
percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and
cash payments The 2009 percentages were
roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively
Moderation is key
From an economic perspective certain poten-
tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-
sion to allow consumers to make early pen-
sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily
consumers have exercised considerable self-
restraint as indicated by the data on the
number of withdrawals and total money with-
drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all
members of occupational pension schemes
make withdrawals each year This is in part
due to restrictions inserted in the legislation
by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals
As a result we are cautiously optimistic about
the future of home fi nancing but recommend
pledges over withdrawals
In focus Residential real estate
Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals
Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since
1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to
prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes
make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-
portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are
nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-
ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common
for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However
there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys
by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-
theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-
ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home
Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of
Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-
ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007
For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed
carefully when purchasing a home
UBS real estate focus January 2011 17
Full-service living ndash a hot new trend
Full-service living is an innovative concept
that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for
greater comfort and higher living stand-
ards Already established abroad this
model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-
zerland
Greater prosperity and a steadily growing
number of small households are driving demand
for new models of living with integrated ser-
vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-
nants and senior citizens The upper middle
class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income
no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free
time on tedious errands or exhausting chores
Even young families are increasingly discovering
the modelrsquos benefi ts
Growing importance of new models
of living
Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-
ing needs Over the years we have seen the
emergence of nursing homes independent liv-
ing and assisted-living communities There is
now an even richer more diverse menu of
options ranging from boarding houses to full-
service living While this latest model may re-
main a niche product for several years we think
demand will stay strong for the foreseeable
future thanks to demographic change growing
interest in support and services and a greater
overall need for higher living standards Of-
ferings need to be aligned with target group
needs and interests though Our experience
with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project
shows that models should be tailored to both
the target group and local conditions
James ndash Full-service Living
The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the
brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-
erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the
fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex
in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009
the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-
sion Fund Assets built a second James complex
in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-
four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-
cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third
James complex is under construction in Winter-
thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-
2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-
ping thanks to a direct connection between the
roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center
restaurants and a parking garage
The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects
todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not
only modern communication technologies (In-
ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-
tion (James is physically on the premises) At a
James complex rent includes a wide array of
concierge services such as receiving guests
accepting packages and purchases or reserving
concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to
mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services
such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet
care plant watering or vacation service These
services are billed separately under a pay-as-
you-go scheme
Components of full-service living
Home concierge services are new to Switzer-
land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-
nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it
mainly designates French superintendents or
caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-
cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-
sive personal services for tenants and visitors as
well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-
tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-
yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-
ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The
James concept embraces this principle When
tenants and visitors enter a James apartment
complex it should be readily apparent that this
is more than just a place to live The James ndash
Full-service Living concept can also adapt to
Patric Caillat
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Possible concept for full-service living
Source UBS GRE Switzerland
The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo
Living as a core service
Basic services included in rent
Agrave la carte services
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 201118
residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time
thanks to its extensive modular service off ering
The program is based on three components
residential use integrated basic services and
additional agrave la carte services
The apartment is the core service and as such
must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in
terms of location infrastructure amenities and
aesthetics The rent must also include several
basic services that are important to the target
groups This diff erentiates James from a regular
apartment complex Residents can also use
many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply
pick the services they need and pay for them
separately which makes the apartment some-
thing like a hotel To be successful the concept
has to combine these elements intelligently
while taking local circumstances into account
Other models on the market
Several models with slightly diff erent approach-
es have been launched in recent years Besides
James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-
set Management other full-service models in-
clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real
Estate Asset Management department and
ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG
Combining services with attractive living can
give a property its own unique character and
ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps
support intelligent real estate marketing How-
ever full-service living can only work if the
services benefi t users operators and owners
alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-
perience with such models it certainly has the
conditions and outlook needed to achieve a
win-win situation
Added value at an attractive price
ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work
users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat
value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to
tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er
all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-
cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go
scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start
Who is the target audience What services do they want While this
might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos
success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are
handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts
will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-
tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo
changing needs
In focus Residential real estate
Commercial real estate and special uses
The market separates the wheat from the chaff
UBS real estate focus January 201120
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in rela-
tively good shape We expect price pres-
sure from tenants to widen the perform-
ance gap between central and peripheral
locations
Offi ce space is the most important sector of
the Swiss commercial real estate market The
commercial property market was estimated
to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end
of 2009 according to Investment Property
Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this
total was offi ce space while retail properties
made up 377 percent and industrial real es-
tate 35 percent
Stable demand factors
Besides being large the offi ce property seg-
ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-
ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the
total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of
Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and
business services represent over 18 percent of
total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-
centage compared to other countries The
Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-
where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-
tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-
tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos
growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still
remained positive Part-time employment is
also becoming more widespread in Switzer-
land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies
are focusing on boosting employee productiv-
ity Future employment growth looks likely to
be moderate as a result
Rising importance of quality
The prospect of slow but positive employment
growth highlights the importance of analyzing
the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates
range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is
moderate compared to other countries and has
recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In
crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found
that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce
completions have been much higher in Ger-
man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-
zerland in recent years In 201112 around
150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the
market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2
in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the
various kinds of offi ce space on the market For
example we are skeptical about the medium-
term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-
erties (poor access to transportation and low
availability of services) on the periphery of cit-
ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-
geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-
ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be
strong expanding the labor market companies
still need to provide attractive workplaces for
their employees Easily accessible central offi ce
locations will gain even more importance Un-
der these pressures the offi ce market should
start to more clearly separate the wheat from
the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce
space is scarce should perform well while
non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle
to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral
locations will be squeezed since they are main-
ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce
functions Through renovation or new con-
structions in contrast downtown locations
should see further appreciation and attractive
returns For this reason we think rents for
high-end offi ce space should rise further
Positive appreciation rate
Despite falling interest rates and government
bond yields initial yields in the institutional
offi ce segment have hardly budged according
to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and
2009 In contrast to many European real estate
markets the appreciation rate is still positively
Commercial real estate and special uses
5
34
0ndash1
12
ndash3ndash2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
No drop in employment in Switzerland
Source Experian Business Services June 2010
Employment growth in financial and business services in percent
SwitzerlandEU15
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 21
correlated with the rental growth rate in the
Swiss offi ce property market The percentage
increase in the granting of commercial mort-
gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation
rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss
commercial property market is on solid ground
The fall in government bond yields has height-
ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-
ties driving investment demand for this asset
class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end
UBS real estate focus January 2011 13
Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory
The taxation of imputed rental values as
income is controversial For years there
have been heated discussions about this
issue Last summer the Federal Council
threw its hat in the ring supporting a
total abolition of the tax in order to sim-
plify the tax code
In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-
sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-
tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The
Federal Council rejected the initiative and now
aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-
ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-
posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-
tions on private interest payments with certain
exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer
be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-
ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-
tion measures
Root of the problem taxing imputed
rental values
Interestingly the endless debate about IRV
taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and
other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-
ed as parts of one indivisible system However
we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-
nomic eff ects by examining each component
separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents
the rent revenues that homeowners could the-
oretically earn if they rented out their home on
the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-
ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-
ants and homeowners on an equal footing on
the premise that homeowners are better off
economically since they live rent-free
This is a specious argument in our view First
tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-
ment risk for their home and no opportunity
costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on
assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-
ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo
risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies
a he y property gains tax on any capital gains
Losses by contrast are fully borne by the
property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor
job of evening the odds between tenants and
homeowners Simply consider how IRV are
determined There are few comparable proper-
ties particularly for single-family homes and
luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-
sible to calculate the market rents that underlie
the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and
sometimes quite complicated assessment
methods to calculate IRV This violates classic
tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be
both simple and transparent
Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other
side of the coin
What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-
tem the deductions for mortgage interest and
maintenance expenses As the law stands the
tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners
to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-
pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-
ment could be more pragmatic about mort-
gage interest There are three main reasons
why deductions for owner-occupied homes
should be eliminated in our opinion as the
Federal Council is essentially proposing to do
First the deductions give households an incen-
tive to take on too much debt While this is not
necessarily bad in itself it is still not something
the government should be expressly encourag-
ing Second allowing income tax deductions
for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-
errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and
thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-
owners can claim larger interest deductions
thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by
contrast bear the full interest rate risk under
current tenant-landlord law through the refer-
ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair
to permit homeowners to claim deductions for
Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated
Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder
whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-
tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve
return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the
current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term
investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-
ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the
mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are
equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-
ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we
strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their
eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio
Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and
other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not
concentrating all your assets in your home
living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a
single cent
Dubious exceptions from interest
deductions
The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its
constitutional mandate to encourage home
ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-
ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up
to a certain franc limit over 10 years This
ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-
efi t high-income households which obviously
misses the point and should therefore be re-
considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-
rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest
income could still off set mortgage interest
against the full amount of their interest in-
come This is also a one-sided policy that large-
ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-
gage interest from their taxable interest and
securities income
The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-
come tax deductions for maintenance costs as
well as private mortgage interest This is a step
in the right direction A er all tenants do not
receive tax breaks on their living expenses
However the Federal Council is making excep-
tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency
and environmental protection measures that
meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very
labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-
ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for
each individual homeowner A more effi cient
method would directly subsidize eco-friendly
energy systems and construction materials
The tax on imputed rental values
should be abolished
The current tax on IRV makes little economic
sense in our view If it were abolished there
would be no need for many deductions and
exceptions which is why we think the govern-
ment should simplify the tax code by com-
pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership
That way homeowners can preserve both their
homes and their sanity around tax time
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 2011 15
Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game
An estimated 520000 withdrawals have
been made from retirement accounts since
1995 The withdrawn capital is expected
to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010
The possible impact on future retirement
benefi ts remains unknown but the risks
should not be ignored
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-
ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August
1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home
ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely
low compared to other countries Raising it is
an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also
policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-
ter when they claimed the low home owner-
ship rate showed too little was being done to
reach the political goal of widespread home
ownership among the population
Swiss home ownership rate remains low
The home ownership rate was 31 percent in
1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-
ership encouragement law began to allow
prospective home buyers to pledge and with-
draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-
manently occupied homes were owner-occu-
pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now
puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent
In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared
to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in
Italy
Why the low ownership rate First condo-
minium ownership was not introduced to
Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss
rental apartment market is relatively effi cient
compared to other countries which dulls the
incentive to own a home So what caused
the spike in the home ownership rate in the
1990s In that decade home prices fell a er
the real estate bubble burst declining sharply
relative to national income Third Switzer-
landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older
ndash the cohort where home ownership is most
common Finally people have been free to
pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-
sets for home purchases since 1995 However
it is not clear whether this statutory option
has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a
bandwagon eff ect
Occupational pensions unsuitable for
encouraging home ownership
The explicit goal of the occupational pension
system ndash established in 1985 to supplement
the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system
(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of
living when the policyholder retires dies or
becomes disabled As fully funded schemes
occupational pensions represent the most
politically attractive pot of money for encour-
aging home ownership Withdrawing pension
assets however does more than reduce
future retirement benefi ts It can also lower
death and disability benefi ts if they depend
on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned
contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals
are a poor vehicle for encouraging home
ownership since they clearly undermine the
main purpose of occupational pensions to
provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in
retirement age
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as
follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves
the purpose of occupational pensions because
living expenses represent one of the largest
costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow
It ignores the need to distribute investment
risks and choose assets that off er security and
an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-
eral Act on Occupational Pensions People
who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-
Thomas Veraguth
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
In focus Residential real estate
350040004500
3000
15001000
20002500
0500
4500040000
3000035000
1500010000
2000025000
05000
0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003
Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR
Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995
Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)
Total annual amount in CHF million
UBS real estate focus January 201116
posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and
considerable risks of the real estate market for
years at a time
Total sum withdrawn remains low
The statistics tell a nuanced story of how
withdrawals are being used to fi nance home
purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-
al pension schemes has nearly doubled since
1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in
2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-
lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs
withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-
resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in
occupational pension schemes over the past
15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-
count for around 05 percent of the total capi-
tal invested in occupational pensions By com-
parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the
single-family homes and condominiums in
Switzerland had an aggregate market value of
124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages
taken out by private households amounted to
566 billion francs in September 2010
The withdrawal statistics also harbor another
surprise the continuity of the amounts with-
drawn The average withdrawal has remained
within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000
Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked
in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-
sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for
680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-
counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred
by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of
annuities and lump-sum payments and 167
percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and
cash payments The 2009 percentages were
roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively
Moderation is key
From an economic perspective certain poten-
tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-
sion to allow consumers to make early pen-
sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily
consumers have exercised considerable self-
restraint as indicated by the data on the
number of withdrawals and total money with-
drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all
members of occupational pension schemes
make withdrawals each year This is in part
due to restrictions inserted in the legislation
by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals
As a result we are cautiously optimistic about
the future of home fi nancing but recommend
pledges over withdrawals
In focus Residential real estate
Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals
Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since
1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to
prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes
make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-
portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are
nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-
ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common
for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However
there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys
by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-
theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-
ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home
Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of
Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-
ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007
For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed
carefully when purchasing a home
UBS real estate focus January 2011 17
Full-service living ndash a hot new trend
Full-service living is an innovative concept
that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for
greater comfort and higher living stand-
ards Already established abroad this
model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-
zerland
Greater prosperity and a steadily growing
number of small households are driving demand
for new models of living with integrated ser-
vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-
nants and senior citizens The upper middle
class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income
no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free
time on tedious errands or exhausting chores
Even young families are increasingly discovering
the modelrsquos benefi ts
Growing importance of new models
of living
Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-
ing needs Over the years we have seen the
emergence of nursing homes independent liv-
ing and assisted-living communities There is
now an even richer more diverse menu of
options ranging from boarding houses to full-
service living While this latest model may re-
main a niche product for several years we think
demand will stay strong for the foreseeable
future thanks to demographic change growing
interest in support and services and a greater
overall need for higher living standards Of-
ferings need to be aligned with target group
needs and interests though Our experience
with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project
shows that models should be tailored to both
the target group and local conditions
James ndash Full-service Living
The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the
brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-
erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the
fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex
in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009
the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-
sion Fund Assets built a second James complex
in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-
four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-
cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third
James complex is under construction in Winter-
thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-
2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-
ping thanks to a direct connection between the
roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center
restaurants and a parking garage
The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects
todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not
only modern communication technologies (In-
ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-
tion (James is physically on the premises) At a
James complex rent includes a wide array of
concierge services such as receiving guests
accepting packages and purchases or reserving
concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to
mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services
such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet
care plant watering or vacation service These
services are billed separately under a pay-as-
you-go scheme
Components of full-service living
Home concierge services are new to Switzer-
land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-
nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it
mainly designates French superintendents or
caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-
cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-
sive personal services for tenants and visitors as
well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-
tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-
yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-
ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The
James concept embraces this principle When
tenants and visitors enter a James apartment
complex it should be readily apparent that this
is more than just a place to live The James ndash
Full-service Living concept can also adapt to
Patric Caillat
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Possible concept for full-service living
Source UBS GRE Switzerland
The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo
Living as a core service
Basic services included in rent
Agrave la carte services
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 201118
residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time
thanks to its extensive modular service off ering
The program is based on three components
residential use integrated basic services and
additional agrave la carte services
The apartment is the core service and as such
must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in
terms of location infrastructure amenities and
aesthetics The rent must also include several
basic services that are important to the target
groups This diff erentiates James from a regular
apartment complex Residents can also use
many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply
pick the services they need and pay for them
separately which makes the apartment some-
thing like a hotel To be successful the concept
has to combine these elements intelligently
while taking local circumstances into account
Other models on the market
Several models with slightly diff erent approach-
es have been launched in recent years Besides
James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-
set Management other full-service models in-
clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real
Estate Asset Management department and
ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG
Combining services with attractive living can
give a property its own unique character and
ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps
support intelligent real estate marketing How-
ever full-service living can only work if the
services benefi t users operators and owners
alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-
perience with such models it certainly has the
conditions and outlook needed to achieve a
win-win situation
Added value at an attractive price
ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work
users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat
value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to
tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er
all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-
cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go
scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start
Who is the target audience What services do they want While this
might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos
success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are
handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts
will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-
tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo
changing needs
In focus Residential real estate
Commercial real estate and special uses
The market separates the wheat from the chaff
UBS real estate focus January 201120
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in rela-
tively good shape We expect price pres-
sure from tenants to widen the perform-
ance gap between central and peripheral
locations
Offi ce space is the most important sector of
the Swiss commercial real estate market The
commercial property market was estimated
to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end
of 2009 according to Investment Property
Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this
total was offi ce space while retail properties
made up 377 percent and industrial real es-
tate 35 percent
Stable demand factors
Besides being large the offi ce property seg-
ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-
ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the
total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of
Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and
business services represent over 18 percent of
total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-
centage compared to other countries The
Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-
where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-
tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-
tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos
growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still
remained positive Part-time employment is
also becoming more widespread in Switzer-
land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies
are focusing on boosting employee productiv-
ity Future employment growth looks likely to
be moderate as a result
Rising importance of quality
The prospect of slow but positive employment
growth highlights the importance of analyzing
the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates
range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is
moderate compared to other countries and has
recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In
crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found
that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce
completions have been much higher in Ger-
man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-
zerland in recent years In 201112 around
150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the
market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2
in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the
various kinds of offi ce space on the market For
example we are skeptical about the medium-
term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-
erties (poor access to transportation and low
availability of services) on the periphery of cit-
ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-
geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-
ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be
strong expanding the labor market companies
still need to provide attractive workplaces for
their employees Easily accessible central offi ce
locations will gain even more importance Un-
der these pressures the offi ce market should
start to more clearly separate the wheat from
the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce
space is scarce should perform well while
non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle
to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral
locations will be squeezed since they are main-
ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce
functions Through renovation or new con-
structions in contrast downtown locations
should see further appreciation and attractive
returns For this reason we think rents for
high-end offi ce space should rise further
Positive appreciation rate
Despite falling interest rates and government
bond yields initial yields in the institutional
offi ce segment have hardly budged according
to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and
2009 In contrast to many European real estate
markets the appreciation rate is still positively
Commercial real estate and special uses
5
34
0ndash1
12
ndash3ndash2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
No drop in employment in Switzerland
Source Experian Business Services June 2010
Employment growth in financial and business services in percent
SwitzerlandEU15
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 21
correlated with the rental growth rate in the
Swiss offi ce property market The percentage
increase in the granting of commercial mort-
gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation
rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss
commercial property market is on solid ground
The fall in government bond yields has height-
ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-
ties driving investment demand for this asset
class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end
UBS real estate focus January 2011 13
Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory
The taxation of imputed rental values as
income is controversial For years there
have been heated discussions about this
issue Last summer the Federal Council
threw its hat in the ring supporting a
total abolition of the tax in order to sim-
plify the tax code
In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-
sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-
tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The
Federal Council rejected the initiative and now
aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-
ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-
posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-
tions on private interest payments with certain
exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer
be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-
ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-
tion measures
Root of the problem taxing imputed
rental values
Interestingly the endless debate about IRV
taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and
other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-
ed as parts of one indivisible system However
we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-
nomic eff ects by examining each component
separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents
the rent revenues that homeowners could the-
oretically earn if they rented out their home on
the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-
ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-
ants and homeowners on an equal footing on
the premise that homeowners are better off
economically since they live rent-free
This is a specious argument in our view First
tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-
ment risk for their home and no opportunity
costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on
assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-
ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo
risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies
a he y property gains tax on any capital gains
Losses by contrast are fully borne by the
property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor
job of evening the odds between tenants and
homeowners Simply consider how IRV are
determined There are few comparable proper-
ties particularly for single-family homes and
luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-
sible to calculate the market rents that underlie
the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and
sometimes quite complicated assessment
methods to calculate IRV This violates classic
tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be
both simple and transparent
Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other
side of the coin
What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-
tem the deductions for mortgage interest and
maintenance expenses As the law stands the
tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners
to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-
pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-
ment could be more pragmatic about mort-
gage interest There are three main reasons
why deductions for owner-occupied homes
should be eliminated in our opinion as the
Federal Council is essentially proposing to do
First the deductions give households an incen-
tive to take on too much debt While this is not
necessarily bad in itself it is still not something
the government should be expressly encourag-
ing Second allowing income tax deductions
for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-
errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and
thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-
owners can claim larger interest deductions
thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by
contrast bear the full interest rate risk under
current tenant-landlord law through the refer-
ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair
to permit homeowners to claim deductions for
Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated
Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder
whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-
tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve
return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the
current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term
investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-
ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the
mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are
equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-
ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we
strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their
eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio
Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and
other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not
concentrating all your assets in your home
living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a
single cent
Dubious exceptions from interest
deductions
The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its
constitutional mandate to encourage home
ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-
ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up
to a certain franc limit over 10 years This
ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-
efi t high-income households which obviously
misses the point and should therefore be re-
considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-
rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest
income could still off set mortgage interest
against the full amount of their interest in-
come This is also a one-sided policy that large-
ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-
gage interest from their taxable interest and
securities income
The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-
come tax deductions for maintenance costs as
well as private mortgage interest This is a step
in the right direction A er all tenants do not
receive tax breaks on their living expenses
However the Federal Council is making excep-
tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency
and environmental protection measures that
meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very
labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-
ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for
each individual homeowner A more effi cient
method would directly subsidize eco-friendly
energy systems and construction materials
The tax on imputed rental values
should be abolished
The current tax on IRV makes little economic
sense in our view If it were abolished there
would be no need for many deductions and
exceptions which is why we think the govern-
ment should simplify the tax code by com-
pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership
That way homeowners can preserve both their
homes and their sanity around tax time
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 2011 15
Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game
An estimated 520000 withdrawals have
been made from retirement accounts since
1995 The withdrawn capital is expected
to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010
The possible impact on future retirement
benefi ts remains unknown but the risks
should not be ignored
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-
ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August
1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home
ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely
low compared to other countries Raising it is
an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also
policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-
ter when they claimed the low home owner-
ship rate showed too little was being done to
reach the political goal of widespread home
ownership among the population
Swiss home ownership rate remains low
The home ownership rate was 31 percent in
1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-
ership encouragement law began to allow
prospective home buyers to pledge and with-
draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-
manently occupied homes were owner-occu-
pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now
puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent
In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared
to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in
Italy
Why the low ownership rate First condo-
minium ownership was not introduced to
Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss
rental apartment market is relatively effi cient
compared to other countries which dulls the
incentive to own a home So what caused
the spike in the home ownership rate in the
1990s In that decade home prices fell a er
the real estate bubble burst declining sharply
relative to national income Third Switzer-
landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older
ndash the cohort where home ownership is most
common Finally people have been free to
pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-
sets for home purchases since 1995 However
it is not clear whether this statutory option
has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a
bandwagon eff ect
Occupational pensions unsuitable for
encouraging home ownership
The explicit goal of the occupational pension
system ndash established in 1985 to supplement
the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system
(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of
living when the policyholder retires dies or
becomes disabled As fully funded schemes
occupational pensions represent the most
politically attractive pot of money for encour-
aging home ownership Withdrawing pension
assets however does more than reduce
future retirement benefi ts It can also lower
death and disability benefi ts if they depend
on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned
contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals
are a poor vehicle for encouraging home
ownership since they clearly undermine the
main purpose of occupational pensions to
provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in
retirement age
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as
follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves
the purpose of occupational pensions because
living expenses represent one of the largest
costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow
It ignores the need to distribute investment
risks and choose assets that off er security and
an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-
eral Act on Occupational Pensions People
who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-
Thomas Veraguth
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
In focus Residential real estate
350040004500
3000
15001000
20002500
0500
4500040000
3000035000
1500010000
2000025000
05000
0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003
Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR
Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995
Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)
Total annual amount in CHF million
UBS real estate focus January 201116
posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and
considerable risks of the real estate market for
years at a time
Total sum withdrawn remains low
The statistics tell a nuanced story of how
withdrawals are being used to fi nance home
purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-
al pension schemes has nearly doubled since
1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in
2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-
lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs
withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-
resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in
occupational pension schemes over the past
15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-
count for around 05 percent of the total capi-
tal invested in occupational pensions By com-
parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the
single-family homes and condominiums in
Switzerland had an aggregate market value of
124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages
taken out by private households amounted to
566 billion francs in September 2010
The withdrawal statistics also harbor another
surprise the continuity of the amounts with-
drawn The average withdrawal has remained
within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000
Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked
in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-
sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for
680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-
counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred
by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of
annuities and lump-sum payments and 167
percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and
cash payments The 2009 percentages were
roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively
Moderation is key
From an economic perspective certain poten-
tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-
sion to allow consumers to make early pen-
sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily
consumers have exercised considerable self-
restraint as indicated by the data on the
number of withdrawals and total money with-
drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all
members of occupational pension schemes
make withdrawals each year This is in part
due to restrictions inserted in the legislation
by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals
As a result we are cautiously optimistic about
the future of home fi nancing but recommend
pledges over withdrawals
In focus Residential real estate
Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals
Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since
1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to
prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes
make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-
portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are
nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-
ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common
for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However
there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys
by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-
theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-
ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home
Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of
Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-
ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007
For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed
carefully when purchasing a home
UBS real estate focus January 2011 17
Full-service living ndash a hot new trend
Full-service living is an innovative concept
that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for
greater comfort and higher living stand-
ards Already established abroad this
model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-
zerland
Greater prosperity and a steadily growing
number of small households are driving demand
for new models of living with integrated ser-
vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-
nants and senior citizens The upper middle
class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income
no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free
time on tedious errands or exhausting chores
Even young families are increasingly discovering
the modelrsquos benefi ts
Growing importance of new models
of living
Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-
ing needs Over the years we have seen the
emergence of nursing homes independent liv-
ing and assisted-living communities There is
now an even richer more diverse menu of
options ranging from boarding houses to full-
service living While this latest model may re-
main a niche product for several years we think
demand will stay strong for the foreseeable
future thanks to demographic change growing
interest in support and services and a greater
overall need for higher living standards Of-
ferings need to be aligned with target group
needs and interests though Our experience
with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project
shows that models should be tailored to both
the target group and local conditions
James ndash Full-service Living
The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the
brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-
erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the
fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex
in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009
the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-
sion Fund Assets built a second James complex
in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-
four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-
cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third
James complex is under construction in Winter-
thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-
2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-
ping thanks to a direct connection between the
roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center
restaurants and a parking garage
The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects
todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not
only modern communication technologies (In-
ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-
tion (James is physically on the premises) At a
James complex rent includes a wide array of
concierge services such as receiving guests
accepting packages and purchases or reserving
concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to
mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services
such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet
care plant watering or vacation service These
services are billed separately under a pay-as-
you-go scheme
Components of full-service living
Home concierge services are new to Switzer-
land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-
nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it
mainly designates French superintendents or
caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-
cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-
sive personal services for tenants and visitors as
well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-
tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-
yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-
ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The
James concept embraces this principle When
tenants and visitors enter a James apartment
complex it should be readily apparent that this
is more than just a place to live The James ndash
Full-service Living concept can also adapt to
Patric Caillat
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Possible concept for full-service living
Source UBS GRE Switzerland
The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo
Living as a core service
Basic services included in rent
Agrave la carte services
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 201118
residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time
thanks to its extensive modular service off ering
The program is based on three components
residential use integrated basic services and
additional agrave la carte services
The apartment is the core service and as such
must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in
terms of location infrastructure amenities and
aesthetics The rent must also include several
basic services that are important to the target
groups This diff erentiates James from a regular
apartment complex Residents can also use
many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply
pick the services they need and pay for them
separately which makes the apartment some-
thing like a hotel To be successful the concept
has to combine these elements intelligently
while taking local circumstances into account
Other models on the market
Several models with slightly diff erent approach-
es have been launched in recent years Besides
James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-
set Management other full-service models in-
clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real
Estate Asset Management department and
ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG
Combining services with attractive living can
give a property its own unique character and
ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps
support intelligent real estate marketing How-
ever full-service living can only work if the
services benefi t users operators and owners
alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-
perience with such models it certainly has the
conditions and outlook needed to achieve a
win-win situation
Added value at an attractive price
ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work
users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat
value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to
tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er
all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-
cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go
scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start
Who is the target audience What services do they want While this
might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos
success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are
handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts
will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-
tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo
changing needs
In focus Residential real estate
Commercial real estate and special uses
The market separates the wheat from the chaff
UBS real estate focus January 201120
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in rela-
tively good shape We expect price pres-
sure from tenants to widen the perform-
ance gap between central and peripheral
locations
Offi ce space is the most important sector of
the Swiss commercial real estate market The
commercial property market was estimated
to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end
of 2009 according to Investment Property
Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this
total was offi ce space while retail properties
made up 377 percent and industrial real es-
tate 35 percent
Stable demand factors
Besides being large the offi ce property seg-
ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-
ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the
total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of
Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and
business services represent over 18 percent of
total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-
centage compared to other countries The
Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-
where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-
tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-
tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos
growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still
remained positive Part-time employment is
also becoming more widespread in Switzer-
land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies
are focusing on boosting employee productiv-
ity Future employment growth looks likely to
be moderate as a result
Rising importance of quality
The prospect of slow but positive employment
growth highlights the importance of analyzing
the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates
range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is
moderate compared to other countries and has
recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In
crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found
that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce
completions have been much higher in Ger-
man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-
zerland in recent years In 201112 around
150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the
market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2
in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the
various kinds of offi ce space on the market For
example we are skeptical about the medium-
term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-
erties (poor access to transportation and low
availability of services) on the periphery of cit-
ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-
geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-
ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be
strong expanding the labor market companies
still need to provide attractive workplaces for
their employees Easily accessible central offi ce
locations will gain even more importance Un-
der these pressures the offi ce market should
start to more clearly separate the wheat from
the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce
space is scarce should perform well while
non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle
to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral
locations will be squeezed since they are main-
ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce
functions Through renovation or new con-
structions in contrast downtown locations
should see further appreciation and attractive
returns For this reason we think rents for
high-end offi ce space should rise further
Positive appreciation rate
Despite falling interest rates and government
bond yields initial yields in the institutional
offi ce segment have hardly budged according
to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and
2009 In contrast to many European real estate
markets the appreciation rate is still positively
Commercial real estate and special uses
5
34
0ndash1
12
ndash3ndash2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
No drop in employment in Switzerland
Source Experian Business Services June 2010
Employment growth in financial and business services in percent
SwitzerlandEU15
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 21
correlated with the rental growth rate in the
Swiss offi ce property market The percentage
increase in the granting of commercial mort-
gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation
rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss
commercial property market is on solid ground
The fall in government bond yields has height-
ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-
ties driving investment demand for this asset
class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end
UBS real estate focus January 2011 13
Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory
The taxation of imputed rental values as
income is controversial For years there
have been heated discussions about this
issue Last summer the Federal Council
threw its hat in the ring supporting a
total abolition of the tax in order to sim-
plify the tax code
In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-
sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-
tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The
Federal Council rejected the initiative and now
aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-
ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-
posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-
tions on private interest payments with certain
exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer
be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-
ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-
tion measures
Root of the problem taxing imputed
rental values
Interestingly the endless debate about IRV
taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and
other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-
ed as parts of one indivisible system However
we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-
nomic eff ects by examining each component
separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents
the rent revenues that homeowners could the-
oretically earn if they rented out their home on
the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-
ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-
ants and homeowners on an equal footing on
the premise that homeowners are better off
economically since they live rent-free
This is a specious argument in our view First
tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-
ment risk for their home and no opportunity
costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on
assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-
ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo
risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies
a he y property gains tax on any capital gains
Losses by contrast are fully borne by the
property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor
job of evening the odds between tenants and
homeowners Simply consider how IRV are
determined There are few comparable proper-
ties particularly for single-family homes and
luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-
sible to calculate the market rents that underlie
the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and
sometimes quite complicated assessment
methods to calculate IRV This violates classic
tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be
both simple and transparent
Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other
side of the coin
What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-
tem the deductions for mortgage interest and
maintenance expenses As the law stands the
tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners
to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-
pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-
ment could be more pragmatic about mort-
gage interest There are three main reasons
why deductions for owner-occupied homes
should be eliminated in our opinion as the
Federal Council is essentially proposing to do
First the deductions give households an incen-
tive to take on too much debt While this is not
necessarily bad in itself it is still not something
the government should be expressly encourag-
ing Second allowing income tax deductions
for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-
errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and
thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-
owners can claim larger interest deductions
thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by
contrast bear the full interest rate risk under
current tenant-landlord law through the refer-
ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair
to permit homeowners to claim deductions for
Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated
Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder
whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-
tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve
return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the
current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term
investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-
ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the
mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are
equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-
ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we
strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their
eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio
Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and
other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not
concentrating all your assets in your home
living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a
single cent
Dubious exceptions from interest
deductions
The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its
constitutional mandate to encourage home
ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-
ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up
to a certain franc limit over 10 years This
ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-
efi t high-income households which obviously
misses the point and should therefore be re-
considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-
rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest
income could still off set mortgage interest
against the full amount of their interest in-
come This is also a one-sided policy that large-
ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-
gage interest from their taxable interest and
securities income
The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-
come tax deductions for maintenance costs as
well as private mortgage interest This is a step
in the right direction A er all tenants do not
receive tax breaks on their living expenses
However the Federal Council is making excep-
tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency
and environmental protection measures that
meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very
labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-
ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for
each individual homeowner A more effi cient
method would directly subsidize eco-friendly
energy systems and construction materials
The tax on imputed rental values
should be abolished
The current tax on IRV makes little economic
sense in our view If it were abolished there
would be no need for many deductions and
exceptions which is why we think the govern-
ment should simplify the tax code by com-
pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership
That way homeowners can preserve both their
homes and their sanity around tax time
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 2011 15
Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game
An estimated 520000 withdrawals have
been made from retirement accounts since
1995 The withdrawn capital is expected
to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010
The possible impact on future retirement
benefi ts remains unknown but the risks
should not be ignored
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-
ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August
1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home
ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely
low compared to other countries Raising it is
an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also
policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-
ter when they claimed the low home owner-
ship rate showed too little was being done to
reach the political goal of widespread home
ownership among the population
Swiss home ownership rate remains low
The home ownership rate was 31 percent in
1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-
ership encouragement law began to allow
prospective home buyers to pledge and with-
draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-
manently occupied homes were owner-occu-
pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now
puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent
In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared
to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in
Italy
Why the low ownership rate First condo-
minium ownership was not introduced to
Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss
rental apartment market is relatively effi cient
compared to other countries which dulls the
incentive to own a home So what caused
the spike in the home ownership rate in the
1990s In that decade home prices fell a er
the real estate bubble burst declining sharply
relative to national income Third Switzer-
landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older
ndash the cohort where home ownership is most
common Finally people have been free to
pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-
sets for home purchases since 1995 However
it is not clear whether this statutory option
has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a
bandwagon eff ect
Occupational pensions unsuitable for
encouraging home ownership
The explicit goal of the occupational pension
system ndash established in 1985 to supplement
the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system
(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of
living when the policyholder retires dies or
becomes disabled As fully funded schemes
occupational pensions represent the most
politically attractive pot of money for encour-
aging home ownership Withdrawing pension
assets however does more than reduce
future retirement benefi ts It can also lower
death and disability benefi ts if they depend
on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned
contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals
are a poor vehicle for encouraging home
ownership since they clearly undermine the
main purpose of occupational pensions to
provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in
retirement age
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as
follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves
the purpose of occupational pensions because
living expenses represent one of the largest
costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow
It ignores the need to distribute investment
risks and choose assets that off er security and
an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-
eral Act on Occupational Pensions People
who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-
Thomas Veraguth
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
In focus Residential real estate
350040004500
3000
15001000
20002500
0500
4500040000
3000035000
1500010000
2000025000
05000
0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003
Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR
Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995
Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)
Total annual amount in CHF million
UBS real estate focus January 201116
posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and
considerable risks of the real estate market for
years at a time
Total sum withdrawn remains low
The statistics tell a nuanced story of how
withdrawals are being used to fi nance home
purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-
al pension schemes has nearly doubled since
1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in
2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-
lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs
withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-
resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in
occupational pension schemes over the past
15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-
count for around 05 percent of the total capi-
tal invested in occupational pensions By com-
parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the
single-family homes and condominiums in
Switzerland had an aggregate market value of
124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages
taken out by private households amounted to
566 billion francs in September 2010
The withdrawal statistics also harbor another
surprise the continuity of the amounts with-
drawn The average withdrawal has remained
within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000
Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked
in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-
sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for
680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-
counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred
by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of
annuities and lump-sum payments and 167
percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and
cash payments The 2009 percentages were
roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively
Moderation is key
From an economic perspective certain poten-
tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-
sion to allow consumers to make early pen-
sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily
consumers have exercised considerable self-
restraint as indicated by the data on the
number of withdrawals and total money with-
drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all
members of occupational pension schemes
make withdrawals each year This is in part
due to restrictions inserted in the legislation
by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals
As a result we are cautiously optimistic about
the future of home fi nancing but recommend
pledges over withdrawals
In focus Residential real estate
Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals
Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since
1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to
prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes
make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-
portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are
nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-
ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common
for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However
there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys
by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-
theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-
ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home
Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of
Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-
ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007
For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed
carefully when purchasing a home
UBS real estate focus January 2011 17
Full-service living ndash a hot new trend
Full-service living is an innovative concept
that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for
greater comfort and higher living stand-
ards Already established abroad this
model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-
zerland
Greater prosperity and a steadily growing
number of small households are driving demand
for new models of living with integrated ser-
vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-
nants and senior citizens The upper middle
class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income
no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free
time on tedious errands or exhausting chores
Even young families are increasingly discovering
the modelrsquos benefi ts
Growing importance of new models
of living
Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-
ing needs Over the years we have seen the
emergence of nursing homes independent liv-
ing and assisted-living communities There is
now an even richer more diverse menu of
options ranging from boarding houses to full-
service living While this latest model may re-
main a niche product for several years we think
demand will stay strong for the foreseeable
future thanks to demographic change growing
interest in support and services and a greater
overall need for higher living standards Of-
ferings need to be aligned with target group
needs and interests though Our experience
with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project
shows that models should be tailored to both
the target group and local conditions
James ndash Full-service Living
The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the
brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-
erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the
fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex
in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009
the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-
sion Fund Assets built a second James complex
in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-
four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-
cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third
James complex is under construction in Winter-
thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-
2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-
ping thanks to a direct connection between the
roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center
restaurants and a parking garage
The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects
todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not
only modern communication technologies (In-
ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-
tion (James is physically on the premises) At a
James complex rent includes a wide array of
concierge services such as receiving guests
accepting packages and purchases or reserving
concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to
mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services
such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet
care plant watering or vacation service These
services are billed separately under a pay-as-
you-go scheme
Components of full-service living
Home concierge services are new to Switzer-
land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-
nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it
mainly designates French superintendents or
caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-
cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-
sive personal services for tenants and visitors as
well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-
tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-
yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-
ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The
James concept embraces this principle When
tenants and visitors enter a James apartment
complex it should be readily apparent that this
is more than just a place to live The James ndash
Full-service Living concept can also adapt to
Patric Caillat
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Possible concept for full-service living
Source UBS GRE Switzerland
The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo
Living as a core service
Basic services included in rent
Agrave la carte services
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 201118
residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time
thanks to its extensive modular service off ering
The program is based on three components
residential use integrated basic services and
additional agrave la carte services
The apartment is the core service and as such
must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in
terms of location infrastructure amenities and
aesthetics The rent must also include several
basic services that are important to the target
groups This diff erentiates James from a regular
apartment complex Residents can also use
many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply
pick the services they need and pay for them
separately which makes the apartment some-
thing like a hotel To be successful the concept
has to combine these elements intelligently
while taking local circumstances into account
Other models on the market
Several models with slightly diff erent approach-
es have been launched in recent years Besides
James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-
set Management other full-service models in-
clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real
Estate Asset Management department and
ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG
Combining services with attractive living can
give a property its own unique character and
ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps
support intelligent real estate marketing How-
ever full-service living can only work if the
services benefi t users operators and owners
alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-
perience with such models it certainly has the
conditions and outlook needed to achieve a
win-win situation
Added value at an attractive price
ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work
users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat
value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to
tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er
all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-
cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go
scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start
Who is the target audience What services do they want While this
might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos
success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are
handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts
will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-
tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo
changing needs
In focus Residential real estate
Commercial real estate and special uses
The market separates the wheat from the chaff
UBS real estate focus January 201120
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in rela-
tively good shape We expect price pres-
sure from tenants to widen the perform-
ance gap between central and peripheral
locations
Offi ce space is the most important sector of
the Swiss commercial real estate market The
commercial property market was estimated
to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end
of 2009 according to Investment Property
Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this
total was offi ce space while retail properties
made up 377 percent and industrial real es-
tate 35 percent
Stable demand factors
Besides being large the offi ce property seg-
ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-
ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the
total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of
Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and
business services represent over 18 percent of
total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-
centage compared to other countries The
Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-
where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-
tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-
tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos
growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still
remained positive Part-time employment is
also becoming more widespread in Switzer-
land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies
are focusing on boosting employee productiv-
ity Future employment growth looks likely to
be moderate as a result
Rising importance of quality
The prospect of slow but positive employment
growth highlights the importance of analyzing
the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates
range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is
moderate compared to other countries and has
recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In
crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found
that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce
completions have been much higher in Ger-
man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-
zerland in recent years In 201112 around
150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the
market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2
in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the
various kinds of offi ce space on the market For
example we are skeptical about the medium-
term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-
erties (poor access to transportation and low
availability of services) on the periphery of cit-
ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-
geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-
ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be
strong expanding the labor market companies
still need to provide attractive workplaces for
their employees Easily accessible central offi ce
locations will gain even more importance Un-
der these pressures the offi ce market should
start to more clearly separate the wheat from
the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce
space is scarce should perform well while
non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle
to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral
locations will be squeezed since they are main-
ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce
functions Through renovation or new con-
structions in contrast downtown locations
should see further appreciation and attractive
returns For this reason we think rents for
high-end offi ce space should rise further
Positive appreciation rate
Despite falling interest rates and government
bond yields initial yields in the institutional
offi ce segment have hardly budged according
to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and
2009 In contrast to many European real estate
markets the appreciation rate is still positively
Commercial real estate and special uses
5
34
0ndash1
12
ndash3ndash2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
No drop in employment in Switzerland
Source Experian Business Services June 2010
Employment growth in financial and business services in percent
SwitzerlandEU15
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 21
correlated with the rental growth rate in the
Swiss offi ce property market The percentage
increase in the granting of commercial mort-
gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation
rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss
commercial property market is on solid ground
The fall in government bond yields has height-
ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-
ties driving investment demand for this asset
class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder
whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-
tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve
return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the
current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term
investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-
ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the
mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are
equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-
ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we
strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their
eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio
Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and
other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not
concentrating all your assets in your home
living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a
single cent
Dubious exceptions from interest
deductions
The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its
constitutional mandate to encourage home
ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-
ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up
to a certain franc limit over 10 years This
ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-
efi t high-income households which obviously
misses the point and should therefore be re-
considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-
rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest
income could still off set mortgage interest
against the full amount of their interest in-
come This is also a one-sided policy that large-
ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-
gage interest from their taxable interest and
securities income
The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-
come tax deductions for maintenance costs as
well as private mortgage interest This is a step
in the right direction A er all tenants do not
receive tax breaks on their living expenses
However the Federal Council is making excep-
tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency
and environmental protection measures that
meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very
labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-
ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for
each individual homeowner A more effi cient
method would directly subsidize eco-friendly
energy systems and construction materials
The tax on imputed rental values
should be abolished
The current tax on IRV makes little economic
sense in our view If it were abolished there
would be no need for many deductions and
exceptions which is why we think the govern-
ment should simplify the tax code by com-
pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership
That way homeowners can preserve both their
homes and their sanity around tax time
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 2011 15
Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game
An estimated 520000 withdrawals have
been made from retirement accounts since
1995 The withdrawn capital is expected
to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010
The possible impact on future retirement
benefi ts remains unknown but the risks
should not be ignored
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-
ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August
1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home
ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely
low compared to other countries Raising it is
an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also
policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-
ter when they claimed the low home owner-
ship rate showed too little was being done to
reach the political goal of widespread home
ownership among the population
Swiss home ownership rate remains low
The home ownership rate was 31 percent in
1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-
ership encouragement law began to allow
prospective home buyers to pledge and with-
draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-
manently occupied homes were owner-occu-
pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now
puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent
In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared
to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in
Italy
Why the low ownership rate First condo-
minium ownership was not introduced to
Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss
rental apartment market is relatively effi cient
compared to other countries which dulls the
incentive to own a home So what caused
the spike in the home ownership rate in the
1990s In that decade home prices fell a er
the real estate bubble burst declining sharply
relative to national income Third Switzer-
landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older
ndash the cohort where home ownership is most
common Finally people have been free to
pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-
sets for home purchases since 1995 However
it is not clear whether this statutory option
has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a
bandwagon eff ect
Occupational pensions unsuitable for
encouraging home ownership
The explicit goal of the occupational pension
system ndash established in 1985 to supplement
the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system
(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of
living when the policyholder retires dies or
becomes disabled As fully funded schemes
occupational pensions represent the most
politically attractive pot of money for encour-
aging home ownership Withdrawing pension
assets however does more than reduce
future retirement benefi ts It can also lower
death and disability benefi ts if they depend
on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned
contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals
are a poor vehicle for encouraging home
ownership since they clearly undermine the
main purpose of occupational pensions to
provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in
retirement age
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as
follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves
the purpose of occupational pensions because
living expenses represent one of the largest
costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow
It ignores the need to distribute investment
risks and choose assets that off er security and
an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-
eral Act on Occupational Pensions People
who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-
Thomas Veraguth
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
In focus Residential real estate
350040004500
3000
15001000
20002500
0500
4500040000
3000035000
1500010000
2000025000
05000
0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003
Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR
Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995
Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)
Total annual amount in CHF million
UBS real estate focus January 201116
posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and
considerable risks of the real estate market for
years at a time
Total sum withdrawn remains low
The statistics tell a nuanced story of how
withdrawals are being used to fi nance home
purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-
al pension schemes has nearly doubled since
1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in
2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-
lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs
withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-
resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in
occupational pension schemes over the past
15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-
count for around 05 percent of the total capi-
tal invested in occupational pensions By com-
parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the
single-family homes and condominiums in
Switzerland had an aggregate market value of
124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages
taken out by private households amounted to
566 billion francs in September 2010
The withdrawal statistics also harbor another
surprise the continuity of the amounts with-
drawn The average withdrawal has remained
within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000
Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked
in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-
sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for
680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-
counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred
by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of
annuities and lump-sum payments and 167
percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and
cash payments The 2009 percentages were
roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively
Moderation is key
From an economic perspective certain poten-
tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-
sion to allow consumers to make early pen-
sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily
consumers have exercised considerable self-
restraint as indicated by the data on the
number of withdrawals and total money with-
drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all
members of occupational pension schemes
make withdrawals each year This is in part
due to restrictions inserted in the legislation
by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals
As a result we are cautiously optimistic about
the future of home fi nancing but recommend
pledges over withdrawals
In focus Residential real estate
Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals
Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since
1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to
prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes
make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-
portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are
nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-
ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common
for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However
there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys
by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-
theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-
ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home
Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of
Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-
ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007
For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed
carefully when purchasing a home
UBS real estate focus January 2011 17
Full-service living ndash a hot new trend
Full-service living is an innovative concept
that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for
greater comfort and higher living stand-
ards Already established abroad this
model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-
zerland
Greater prosperity and a steadily growing
number of small households are driving demand
for new models of living with integrated ser-
vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-
nants and senior citizens The upper middle
class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income
no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free
time on tedious errands or exhausting chores
Even young families are increasingly discovering
the modelrsquos benefi ts
Growing importance of new models
of living
Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-
ing needs Over the years we have seen the
emergence of nursing homes independent liv-
ing and assisted-living communities There is
now an even richer more diverse menu of
options ranging from boarding houses to full-
service living While this latest model may re-
main a niche product for several years we think
demand will stay strong for the foreseeable
future thanks to demographic change growing
interest in support and services and a greater
overall need for higher living standards Of-
ferings need to be aligned with target group
needs and interests though Our experience
with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project
shows that models should be tailored to both
the target group and local conditions
James ndash Full-service Living
The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the
brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-
erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the
fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex
in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009
the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-
sion Fund Assets built a second James complex
in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-
four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-
cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third
James complex is under construction in Winter-
thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-
2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-
ping thanks to a direct connection between the
roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center
restaurants and a parking garage
The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects
todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not
only modern communication technologies (In-
ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-
tion (James is physically on the premises) At a
James complex rent includes a wide array of
concierge services such as receiving guests
accepting packages and purchases or reserving
concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to
mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services
such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet
care plant watering or vacation service These
services are billed separately under a pay-as-
you-go scheme
Components of full-service living
Home concierge services are new to Switzer-
land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-
nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it
mainly designates French superintendents or
caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-
cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-
sive personal services for tenants and visitors as
well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-
tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-
yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-
ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The
James concept embraces this principle When
tenants and visitors enter a James apartment
complex it should be readily apparent that this
is more than just a place to live The James ndash
Full-service Living concept can also adapt to
Patric Caillat
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Possible concept for full-service living
Source UBS GRE Switzerland
The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo
Living as a core service
Basic services included in rent
Agrave la carte services
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 201118
residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time
thanks to its extensive modular service off ering
The program is based on three components
residential use integrated basic services and
additional agrave la carte services
The apartment is the core service and as such
must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in
terms of location infrastructure amenities and
aesthetics The rent must also include several
basic services that are important to the target
groups This diff erentiates James from a regular
apartment complex Residents can also use
many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply
pick the services they need and pay for them
separately which makes the apartment some-
thing like a hotel To be successful the concept
has to combine these elements intelligently
while taking local circumstances into account
Other models on the market
Several models with slightly diff erent approach-
es have been launched in recent years Besides
James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-
set Management other full-service models in-
clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real
Estate Asset Management department and
ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG
Combining services with attractive living can
give a property its own unique character and
ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps
support intelligent real estate marketing How-
ever full-service living can only work if the
services benefi t users operators and owners
alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-
perience with such models it certainly has the
conditions and outlook needed to achieve a
win-win situation
Added value at an attractive price
ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work
users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat
value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to
tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er
all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-
cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go
scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start
Who is the target audience What services do they want While this
might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos
success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are
handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts
will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-
tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo
changing needs
In focus Residential real estate
Commercial real estate and special uses
The market separates the wheat from the chaff
UBS real estate focus January 201120
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in rela-
tively good shape We expect price pres-
sure from tenants to widen the perform-
ance gap between central and peripheral
locations
Offi ce space is the most important sector of
the Swiss commercial real estate market The
commercial property market was estimated
to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end
of 2009 according to Investment Property
Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this
total was offi ce space while retail properties
made up 377 percent and industrial real es-
tate 35 percent
Stable demand factors
Besides being large the offi ce property seg-
ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-
ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the
total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of
Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and
business services represent over 18 percent of
total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-
centage compared to other countries The
Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-
where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-
tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-
tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos
growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still
remained positive Part-time employment is
also becoming more widespread in Switzer-
land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies
are focusing on boosting employee productiv-
ity Future employment growth looks likely to
be moderate as a result
Rising importance of quality
The prospect of slow but positive employment
growth highlights the importance of analyzing
the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates
range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is
moderate compared to other countries and has
recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In
crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found
that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce
completions have been much higher in Ger-
man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-
zerland in recent years In 201112 around
150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the
market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2
in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the
various kinds of offi ce space on the market For
example we are skeptical about the medium-
term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-
erties (poor access to transportation and low
availability of services) on the periphery of cit-
ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-
geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-
ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be
strong expanding the labor market companies
still need to provide attractive workplaces for
their employees Easily accessible central offi ce
locations will gain even more importance Un-
der these pressures the offi ce market should
start to more clearly separate the wheat from
the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce
space is scarce should perform well while
non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle
to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral
locations will be squeezed since they are main-
ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce
functions Through renovation or new con-
structions in contrast downtown locations
should see further appreciation and attractive
returns For this reason we think rents for
high-end offi ce space should rise further
Positive appreciation rate
Despite falling interest rates and government
bond yields initial yields in the institutional
offi ce segment have hardly budged according
to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and
2009 In contrast to many European real estate
markets the appreciation rate is still positively
Commercial real estate and special uses
5
34
0ndash1
12
ndash3ndash2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
No drop in employment in Switzerland
Source Experian Business Services June 2010
Employment growth in financial and business services in percent
SwitzerlandEU15
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 21
correlated with the rental growth rate in the
Swiss offi ce property market The percentage
increase in the granting of commercial mort-
gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation
rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss
commercial property market is on solid ground
The fall in government bond yields has height-
ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-
ties driving investment demand for this asset
class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder
whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-
tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve
return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the
current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term
investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-
ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the
mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are
equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-
ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we
strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their
eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio
Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and
other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not
concentrating all your assets in your home
living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a
single cent
Dubious exceptions from interest
deductions
The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its
constitutional mandate to encourage home
ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-
ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up
to a certain franc limit over 10 years This
ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-
efi t high-income households which obviously
misses the point and should therefore be re-
considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-
rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest
income could still off set mortgage interest
against the full amount of their interest in-
come This is also a one-sided policy that large-
ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-
gage interest from their taxable interest and
securities income
The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-
come tax deductions for maintenance costs as
well as private mortgage interest This is a step
in the right direction A er all tenants do not
receive tax breaks on their living expenses
However the Federal Council is making excep-
tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency
and environmental protection measures that
meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very
labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-
ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for
each individual homeowner A more effi cient
method would directly subsidize eco-friendly
energy systems and construction materials
The tax on imputed rental values
should be abolished
The current tax on IRV makes little economic
sense in our view If it were abolished there
would be no need for many deductions and
exceptions which is why we think the govern-
ment should simplify the tax code by com-
pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership
That way homeowners can preserve both their
homes and their sanity around tax time
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 2011 15
Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game
An estimated 520000 withdrawals have
been made from retirement accounts since
1995 The withdrawn capital is expected
to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010
The possible impact on future retirement
benefi ts remains unknown but the risks
should not be ignored
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-
ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August
1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home
ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely
low compared to other countries Raising it is
an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also
policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-
ter when they claimed the low home owner-
ship rate showed too little was being done to
reach the political goal of widespread home
ownership among the population
Swiss home ownership rate remains low
The home ownership rate was 31 percent in
1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-
ership encouragement law began to allow
prospective home buyers to pledge and with-
draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-
manently occupied homes were owner-occu-
pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now
puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent
In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared
to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in
Italy
Why the low ownership rate First condo-
minium ownership was not introduced to
Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss
rental apartment market is relatively effi cient
compared to other countries which dulls the
incentive to own a home So what caused
the spike in the home ownership rate in the
1990s In that decade home prices fell a er
the real estate bubble burst declining sharply
relative to national income Third Switzer-
landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older
ndash the cohort where home ownership is most
common Finally people have been free to
pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-
sets for home purchases since 1995 However
it is not clear whether this statutory option
has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a
bandwagon eff ect
Occupational pensions unsuitable for
encouraging home ownership
The explicit goal of the occupational pension
system ndash established in 1985 to supplement
the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system
(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of
living when the policyholder retires dies or
becomes disabled As fully funded schemes
occupational pensions represent the most
politically attractive pot of money for encour-
aging home ownership Withdrawing pension
assets however does more than reduce
future retirement benefi ts It can also lower
death and disability benefi ts if they depend
on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned
contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals
are a poor vehicle for encouraging home
ownership since they clearly undermine the
main purpose of occupational pensions to
provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in
retirement age
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as
follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves
the purpose of occupational pensions because
living expenses represent one of the largest
costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow
It ignores the need to distribute investment
risks and choose assets that off er security and
an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-
eral Act on Occupational Pensions People
who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-
Thomas Veraguth
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
In focus Residential real estate
350040004500
3000
15001000
20002500
0500
4500040000
3000035000
1500010000
2000025000
05000
0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003
Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR
Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995
Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)
Total annual amount in CHF million
UBS real estate focus January 201116
posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and
considerable risks of the real estate market for
years at a time
Total sum withdrawn remains low
The statistics tell a nuanced story of how
withdrawals are being used to fi nance home
purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-
al pension schemes has nearly doubled since
1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in
2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-
lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs
withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-
resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in
occupational pension schemes over the past
15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-
count for around 05 percent of the total capi-
tal invested in occupational pensions By com-
parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the
single-family homes and condominiums in
Switzerland had an aggregate market value of
124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages
taken out by private households amounted to
566 billion francs in September 2010
The withdrawal statistics also harbor another
surprise the continuity of the amounts with-
drawn The average withdrawal has remained
within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000
Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked
in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-
sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for
680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-
counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred
by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of
annuities and lump-sum payments and 167
percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and
cash payments The 2009 percentages were
roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively
Moderation is key
From an economic perspective certain poten-
tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-
sion to allow consumers to make early pen-
sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily
consumers have exercised considerable self-
restraint as indicated by the data on the
number of withdrawals and total money with-
drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all
members of occupational pension schemes
make withdrawals each year This is in part
due to restrictions inserted in the legislation
by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals
As a result we are cautiously optimistic about
the future of home fi nancing but recommend
pledges over withdrawals
In focus Residential real estate
Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals
Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since
1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to
prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes
make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-
portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are
nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-
ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common
for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However
there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys
by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-
theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-
ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home
Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of
Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-
ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007
For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed
carefully when purchasing a home
UBS real estate focus January 2011 17
Full-service living ndash a hot new trend
Full-service living is an innovative concept
that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for
greater comfort and higher living stand-
ards Already established abroad this
model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-
zerland
Greater prosperity and a steadily growing
number of small households are driving demand
for new models of living with integrated ser-
vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-
nants and senior citizens The upper middle
class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income
no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free
time on tedious errands or exhausting chores
Even young families are increasingly discovering
the modelrsquos benefi ts
Growing importance of new models
of living
Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-
ing needs Over the years we have seen the
emergence of nursing homes independent liv-
ing and assisted-living communities There is
now an even richer more diverse menu of
options ranging from boarding houses to full-
service living While this latest model may re-
main a niche product for several years we think
demand will stay strong for the foreseeable
future thanks to demographic change growing
interest in support and services and a greater
overall need for higher living standards Of-
ferings need to be aligned with target group
needs and interests though Our experience
with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project
shows that models should be tailored to both
the target group and local conditions
James ndash Full-service Living
The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the
brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-
erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the
fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex
in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009
the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-
sion Fund Assets built a second James complex
in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-
four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-
cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third
James complex is under construction in Winter-
thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-
2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-
ping thanks to a direct connection between the
roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center
restaurants and a parking garage
The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects
todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not
only modern communication technologies (In-
ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-
tion (James is physically on the premises) At a
James complex rent includes a wide array of
concierge services such as receiving guests
accepting packages and purchases or reserving
concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to
mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services
such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet
care plant watering or vacation service These
services are billed separately under a pay-as-
you-go scheme
Components of full-service living
Home concierge services are new to Switzer-
land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-
nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it
mainly designates French superintendents or
caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-
cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-
sive personal services for tenants and visitors as
well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-
tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-
yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-
ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The
James concept embraces this principle When
tenants and visitors enter a James apartment
complex it should be readily apparent that this
is more than just a place to live The James ndash
Full-service Living concept can also adapt to
Patric Caillat
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Possible concept for full-service living
Source UBS GRE Switzerland
The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo
Living as a core service
Basic services included in rent
Agrave la carte services
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 201118
residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time
thanks to its extensive modular service off ering
The program is based on three components
residential use integrated basic services and
additional agrave la carte services
The apartment is the core service and as such
must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in
terms of location infrastructure amenities and
aesthetics The rent must also include several
basic services that are important to the target
groups This diff erentiates James from a regular
apartment complex Residents can also use
many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply
pick the services they need and pay for them
separately which makes the apartment some-
thing like a hotel To be successful the concept
has to combine these elements intelligently
while taking local circumstances into account
Other models on the market
Several models with slightly diff erent approach-
es have been launched in recent years Besides
James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-
set Management other full-service models in-
clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real
Estate Asset Management department and
ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG
Combining services with attractive living can
give a property its own unique character and
ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps
support intelligent real estate marketing How-
ever full-service living can only work if the
services benefi t users operators and owners
alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-
perience with such models it certainly has the
conditions and outlook needed to achieve a
win-win situation
Added value at an attractive price
ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work
users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat
value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to
tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er
all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-
cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go
scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start
Who is the target audience What services do they want While this
might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos
success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are
handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts
will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-
tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo
changing needs
In focus Residential real estate
Commercial real estate and special uses
The market separates the wheat from the chaff
UBS real estate focus January 201120
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in rela-
tively good shape We expect price pres-
sure from tenants to widen the perform-
ance gap between central and peripheral
locations
Offi ce space is the most important sector of
the Swiss commercial real estate market The
commercial property market was estimated
to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end
of 2009 according to Investment Property
Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this
total was offi ce space while retail properties
made up 377 percent and industrial real es-
tate 35 percent
Stable demand factors
Besides being large the offi ce property seg-
ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-
ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the
total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of
Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and
business services represent over 18 percent of
total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-
centage compared to other countries The
Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-
where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-
tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-
tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos
growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still
remained positive Part-time employment is
also becoming more widespread in Switzer-
land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies
are focusing on boosting employee productiv-
ity Future employment growth looks likely to
be moderate as a result
Rising importance of quality
The prospect of slow but positive employment
growth highlights the importance of analyzing
the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates
range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is
moderate compared to other countries and has
recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In
crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found
that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce
completions have been much higher in Ger-
man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-
zerland in recent years In 201112 around
150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the
market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2
in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the
various kinds of offi ce space on the market For
example we are skeptical about the medium-
term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-
erties (poor access to transportation and low
availability of services) on the periphery of cit-
ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-
geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-
ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be
strong expanding the labor market companies
still need to provide attractive workplaces for
their employees Easily accessible central offi ce
locations will gain even more importance Un-
der these pressures the offi ce market should
start to more clearly separate the wheat from
the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce
space is scarce should perform well while
non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle
to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral
locations will be squeezed since they are main-
ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce
functions Through renovation or new con-
structions in contrast downtown locations
should see further appreciation and attractive
returns For this reason we think rents for
high-end offi ce space should rise further
Positive appreciation rate
Despite falling interest rates and government
bond yields initial yields in the institutional
offi ce segment have hardly budged according
to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and
2009 In contrast to many European real estate
markets the appreciation rate is still positively
Commercial real estate and special uses
5
34
0ndash1
12
ndash3ndash2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
No drop in employment in Switzerland
Source Experian Business Services June 2010
Employment growth in financial and business services in percent
SwitzerlandEU15
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 21
correlated with the rental growth rate in the
Swiss offi ce property market The percentage
increase in the granting of commercial mort-
gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation
rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss
commercial property market is on solid ground
The fall in government bond yields has height-
ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-
ties driving investment demand for this asset
class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game
An estimated 520000 withdrawals have
been made from retirement accounts since
1995 The withdrawn capital is expected
to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010
The possible impact on future retirement
benefi ts remains unknown but the risks
should not be ignored
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-
ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August
1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home
ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely
low compared to other countries Raising it is
an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also
policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-
ter when they claimed the low home owner-
ship rate showed too little was being done to
reach the political goal of widespread home
ownership among the population
Swiss home ownership rate remains low
The home ownership rate was 31 percent in
1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-
ership encouragement law began to allow
prospective home buyers to pledge and with-
draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-
manently occupied homes were owner-occu-
pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now
puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent
In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared
to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in
Italy
Why the low ownership rate First condo-
minium ownership was not introduced to
Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss
rental apartment market is relatively effi cient
compared to other countries which dulls the
incentive to own a home So what caused
the spike in the home ownership rate in the
1990s In that decade home prices fell a er
the real estate bubble burst declining sharply
relative to national income Third Switzer-
landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older
ndash the cohort where home ownership is most
common Finally people have been free to
pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-
sets for home purchases since 1995 However
it is not clear whether this statutory option
has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a
bandwagon eff ect
Occupational pensions unsuitable for
encouraging home ownership
The explicit goal of the occupational pension
system ndash established in 1985 to supplement
the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system
(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of
living when the policyholder retires dies or
becomes disabled As fully funded schemes
occupational pensions represent the most
politically attractive pot of money for encour-
aging home ownership Withdrawing pension
assets however does more than reduce
future retirement benefi ts It can also lower
death and disability benefi ts if they depend
on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned
contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals
are a poor vehicle for encouraging home
ownership since they clearly undermine the
main purpose of occupational pensions to
provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in
retirement age
The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of
Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as
follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves
the purpose of occupational pensions because
living expenses represent one of the largest
costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow
It ignores the need to distribute investment
risks and choose assets that off er security and
an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-
eral Act on Occupational Pensions People
who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-
Thomas Veraguth
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
In focus Residential real estate
350040004500
3000
15001000
20002500
0500
4500040000
3000035000
1500010000
2000025000
05000
0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003
Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR
Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995
Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)
Total annual amount in CHF million
UBS real estate focus January 201116
posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and
considerable risks of the real estate market for
years at a time
Total sum withdrawn remains low
The statistics tell a nuanced story of how
withdrawals are being used to fi nance home
purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-
al pension schemes has nearly doubled since
1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in
2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-
lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs
withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-
resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in
occupational pension schemes over the past
15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-
count for around 05 percent of the total capi-
tal invested in occupational pensions By com-
parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the
single-family homes and condominiums in
Switzerland had an aggregate market value of
124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages
taken out by private households amounted to
566 billion francs in September 2010
The withdrawal statistics also harbor another
surprise the continuity of the amounts with-
drawn The average withdrawal has remained
within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000
Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked
in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-
sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for
680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-
counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred
by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of
annuities and lump-sum payments and 167
percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and
cash payments The 2009 percentages were
roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively
Moderation is key
From an economic perspective certain poten-
tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-
sion to allow consumers to make early pen-
sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily
consumers have exercised considerable self-
restraint as indicated by the data on the
number of withdrawals and total money with-
drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all
members of occupational pension schemes
make withdrawals each year This is in part
due to restrictions inserted in the legislation
by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals
As a result we are cautiously optimistic about
the future of home fi nancing but recommend
pledges over withdrawals
In focus Residential real estate
Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals
Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since
1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to
prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes
make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-
portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are
nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-
ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common
for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However
there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys
by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-
theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-
ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home
Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of
Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-
ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007
For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed
carefully when purchasing a home
UBS real estate focus January 2011 17
Full-service living ndash a hot new trend
Full-service living is an innovative concept
that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for
greater comfort and higher living stand-
ards Already established abroad this
model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-
zerland
Greater prosperity and a steadily growing
number of small households are driving demand
for new models of living with integrated ser-
vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-
nants and senior citizens The upper middle
class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income
no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free
time on tedious errands or exhausting chores
Even young families are increasingly discovering
the modelrsquos benefi ts
Growing importance of new models
of living
Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-
ing needs Over the years we have seen the
emergence of nursing homes independent liv-
ing and assisted-living communities There is
now an even richer more diverse menu of
options ranging from boarding houses to full-
service living While this latest model may re-
main a niche product for several years we think
demand will stay strong for the foreseeable
future thanks to demographic change growing
interest in support and services and a greater
overall need for higher living standards Of-
ferings need to be aligned with target group
needs and interests though Our experience
with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project
shows that models should be tailored to both
the target group and local conditions
James ndash Full-service Living
The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the
brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-
erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the
fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex
in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009
the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-
sion Fund Assets built a second James complex
in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-
four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-
cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third
James complex is under construction in Winter-
thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-
2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-
ping thanks to a direct connection between the
roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center
restaurants and a parking garage
The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects
todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not
only modern communication technologies (In-
ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-
tion (James is physically on the premises) At a
James complex rent includes a wide array of
concierge services such as receiving guests
accepting packages and purchases or reserving
concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to
mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services
such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet
care plant watering or vacation service These
services are billed separately under a pay-as-
you-go scheme
Components of full-service living
Home concierge services are new to Switzer-
land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-
nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it
mainly designates French superintendents or
caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-
cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-
sive personal services for tenants and visitors as
well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-
tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-
yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-
ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The
James concept embraces this principle When
tenants and visitors enter a James apartment
complex it should be readily apparent that this
is more than just a place to live The James ndash
Full-service Living concept can also adapt to
Patric Caillat
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Possible concept for full-service living
Source UBS GRE Switzerland
The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo
Living as a core service
Basic services included in rent
Agrave la carte services
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 201118
residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time
thanks to its extensive modular service off ering
The program is based on three components
residential use integrated basic services and
additional agrave la carte services
The apartment is the core service and as such
must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in
terms of location infrastructure amenities and
aesthetics The rent must also include several
basic services that are important to the target
groups This diff erentiates James from a regular
apartment complex Residents can also use
many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply
pick the services they need and pay for them
separately which makes the apartment some-
thing like a hotel To be successful the concept
has to combine these elements intelligently
while taking local circumstances into account
Other models on the market
Several models with slightly diff erent approach-
es have been launched in recent years Besides
James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-
set Management other full-service models in-
clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real
Estate Asset Management department and
ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG
Combining services with attractive living can
give a property its own unique character and
ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps
support intelligent real estate marketing How-
ever full-service living can only work if the
services benefi t users operators and owners
alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-
perience with such models it certainly has the
conditions and outlook needed to achieve a
win-win situation
Added value at an attractive price
ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work
users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat
value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to
tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er
all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-
cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go
scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start
Who is the target audience What services do they want While this
might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos
success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are
handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts
will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-
tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo
changing needs
In focus Residential real estate
Commercial real estate and special uses
The market separates the wheat from the chaff
UBS real estate focus January 201120
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in rela-
tively good shape We expect price pres-
sure from tenants to widen the perform-
ance gap between central and peripheral
locations
Offi ce space is the most important sector of
the Swiss commercial real estate market The
commercial property market was estimated
to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end
of 2009 according to Investment Property
Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this
total was offi ce space while retail properties
made up 377 percent and industrial real es-
tate 35 percent
Stable demand factors
Besides being large the offi ce property seg-
ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-
ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the
total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of
Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and
business services represent over 18 percent of
total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-
centage compared to other countries The
Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-
where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-
tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-
tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos
growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still
remained positive Part-time employment is
also becoming more widespread in Switzer-
land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies
are focusing on boosting employee productiv-
ity Future employment growth looks likely to
be moderate as a result
Rising importance of quality
The prospect of slow but positive employment
growth highlights the importance of analyzing
the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates
range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is
moderate compared to other countries and has
recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In
crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found
that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce
completions have been much higher in Ger-
man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-
zerland in recent years In 201112 around
150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the
market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2
in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the
various kinds of offi ce space on the market For
example we are skeptical about the medium-
term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-
erties (poor access to transportation and low
availability of services) on the periphery of cit-
ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-
geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-
ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be
strong expanding the labor market companies
still need to provide attractive workplaces for
their employees Easily accessible central offi ce
locations will gain even more importance Un-
der these pressures the offi ce market should
start to more clearly separate the wheat from
the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce
space is scarce should perform well while
non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle
to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral
locations will be squeezed since they are main-
ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce
functions Through renovation or new con-
structions in contrast downtown locations
should see further appreciation and attractive
returns For this reason we think rents for
high-end offi ce space should rise further
Positive appreciation rate
Despite falling interest rates and government
bond yields initial yields in the institutional
offi ce segment have hardly budged according
to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and
2009 In contrast to many European real estate
markets the appreciation rate is still positively
Commercial real estate and special uses
5
34
0ndash1
12
ndash3ndash2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
No drop in employment in Switzerland
Source Experian Business Services June 2010
Employment growth in financial and business services in percent
SwitzerlandEU15
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 21
correlated with the rental growth rate in the
Swiss offi ce property market The percentage
increase in the granting of commercial mort-
gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation
rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss
commercial property market is on solid ground
The fall in government bond yields has height-
ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-
ties driving investment demand for this asset
class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the
single-family homes and condominiums in
Switzerland had an aggregate market value of
124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages
taken out by private households amounted to
566 billion francs in September 2010
The withdrawal statistics also harbor another
surprise the continuity of the amounts with-
drawn The average withdrawal has remained
within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000
Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked
in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-
sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for
680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-
counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred
by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of
annuities and lump-sum payments and 167
percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and
cash payments The 2009 percentages were
roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively
Moderation is key
From an economic perspective certain poten-
tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-
sion to allow consumers to make early pen-
sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily
consumers have exercised considerable self-
restraint as indicated by the data on the
number of withdrawals and total money with-
drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all
members of occupational pension schemes
make withdrawals each year This is in part
due to restrictions inserted in the legislation
by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals
As a result we are cautiously optimistic about
the future of home fi nancing but recommend
pledges over withdrawals
In focus Residential real estate
Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals
Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since
1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to
prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes
make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-
portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are
nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-
ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common
for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However
there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys
by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-
theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-
ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home
Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of
Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-
ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007
For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed
carefully when purchasing a home
UBS real estate focus January 2011 17
Full-service living ndash a hot new trend
Full-service living is an innovative concept
that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for
greater comfort and higher living stand-
ards Already established abroad this
model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-
zerland
Greater prosperity and a steadily growing
number of small households are driving demand
for new models of living with integrated ser-
vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-
nants and senior citizens The upper middle
class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income
no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free
time on tedious errands or exhausting chores
Even young families are increasingly discovering
the modelrsquos benefi ts
Growing importance of new models
of living
Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-
ing needs Over the years we have seen the
emergence of nursing homes independent liv-
ing and assisted-living communities There is
now an even richer more diverse menu of
options ranging from boarding houses to full-
service living While this latest model may re-
main a niche product for several years we think
demand will stay strong for the foreseeable
future thanks to demographic change growing
interest in support and services and a greater
overall need for higher living standards Of-
ferings need to be aligned with target group
needs and interests though Our experience
with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project
shows that models should be tailored to both
the target group and local conditions
James ndash Full-service Living
The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the
brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-
erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the
fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex
in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009
the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-
sion Fund Assets built a second James complex
in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-
four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-
cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third
James complex is under construction in Winter-
thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-
2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-
ping thanks to a direct connection between the
roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center
restaurants and a parking garage
The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects
todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not
only modern communication technologies (In-
ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-
tion (James is physically on the premises) At a
James complex rent includes a wide array of
concierge services such as receiving guests
accepting packages and purchases or reserving
concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to
mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services
such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet
care plant watering or vacation service These
services are billed separately under a pay-as-
you-go scheme
Components of full-service living
Home concierge services are new to Switzer-
land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-
nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it
mainly designates French superintendents or
caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-
cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-
sive personal services for tenants and visitors as
well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-
tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-
yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-
ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The
James concept embraces this principle When
tenants and visitors enter a James apartment
complex it should be readily apparent that this
is more than just a place to live The James ndash
Full-service Living concept can also adapt to
Patric Caillat
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Possible concept for full-service living
Source UBS GRE Switzerland
The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo
Living as a core service
Basic services included in rent
Agrave la carte services
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 201118
residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time
thanks to its extensive modular service off ering
The program is based on three components
residential use integrated basic services and
additional agrave la carte services
The apartment is the core service and as such
must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in
terms of location infrastructure amenities and
aesthetics The rent must also include several
basic services that are important to the target
groups This diff erentiates James from a regular
apartment complex Residents can also use
many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply
pick the services they need and pay for them
separately which makes the apartment some-
thing like a hotel To be successful the concept
has to combine these elements intelligently
while taking local circumstances into account
Other models on the market
Several models with slightly diff erent approach-
es have been launched in recent years Besides
James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-
set Management other full-service models in-
clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real
Estate Asset Management department and
ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG
Combining services with attractive living can
give a property its own unique character and
ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps
support intelligent real estate marketing How-
ever full-service living can only work if the
services benefi t users operators and owners
alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-
perience with such models it certainly has the
conditions and outlook needed to achieve a
win-win situation
Added value at an attractive price
ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work
users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat
value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to
tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er
all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-
cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go
scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start
Who is the target audience What services do they want While this
might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos
success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are
handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts
will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-
tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo
changing needs
In focus Residential real estate
Commercial real estate and special uses
The market separates the wheat from the chaff
UBS real estate focus January 201120
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in rela-
tively good shape We expect price pres-
sure from tenants to widen the perform-
ance gap between central and peripheral
locations
Offi ce space is the most important sector of
the Swiss commercial real estate market The
commercial property market was estimated
to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end
of 2009 according to Investment Property
Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this
total was offi ce space while retail properties
made up 377 percent and industrial real es-
tate 35 percent
Stable demand factors
Besides being large the offi ce property seg-
ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-
ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the
total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of
Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and
business services represent over 18 percent of
total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-
centage compared to other countries The
Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-
where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-
tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-
tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos
growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still
remained positive Part-time employment is
also becoming more widespread in Switzer-
land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies
are focusing on boosting employee productiv-
ity Future employment growth looks likely to
be moderate as a result
Rising importance of quality
The prospect of slow but positive employment
growth highlights the importance of analyzing
the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates
range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is
moderate compared to other countries and has
recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In
crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found
that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce
completions have been much higher in Ger-
man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-
zerland in recent years In 201112 around
150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the
market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2
in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the
various kinds of offi ce space on the market For
example we are skeptical about the medium-
term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-
erties (poor access to transportation and low
availability of services) on the periphery of cit-
ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-
geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-
ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be
strong expanding the labor market companies
still need to provide attractive workplaces for
their employees Easily accessible central offi ce
locations will gain even more importance Un-
der these pressures the offi ce market should
start to more clearly separate the wheat from
the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce
space is scarce should perform well while
non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle
to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral
locations will be squeezed since they are main-
ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce
functions Through renovation or new con-
structions in contrast downtown locations
should see further appreciation and attractive
returns For this reason we think rents for
high-end offi ce space should rise further
Positive appreciation rate
Despite falling interest rates and government
bond yields initial yields in the institutional
offi ce segment have hardly budged according
to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and
2009 In contrast to many European real estate
markets the appreciation rate is still positively
Commercial real estate and special uses
5
34
0ndash1
12
ndash3ndash2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
No drop in employment in Switzerland
Source Experian Business Services June 2010
Employment growth in financial and business services in percent
SwitzerlandEU15
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 21
correlated with the rental growth rate in the
Swiss offi ce property market The percentage
increase in the granting of commercial mort-
gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation
rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss
commercial property market is on solid ground
The fall in government bond yields has height-
ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-
ties driving investment demand for this asset
class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income
no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free
time on tedious errands or exhausting chores
Even young families are increasingly discovering
the modelrsquos benefi ts
Growing importance of new models
of living
Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-
ing needs Over the years we have seen the
emergence of nursing homes independent liv-
ing and assisted-living communities There is
now an even richer more diverse menu of
options ranging from boarding houses to full-
service living While this latest model may re-
main a niche product for several years we think
demand will stay strong for the foreseeable
future thanks to demographic change growing
interest in support and services and a greater
overall need for higher living standards Of-
ferings need to be aligned with target group
needs and interests though Our experience
with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project
shows that models should be tailored to both
the target group and local conditions
James ndash Full-service Living
The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the
brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-
erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the
fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex
in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009
the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-
sion Fund Assets built a second James complex
in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-
four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-
cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third
James complex is under construction in Winter-
thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-
2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-
ping thanks to a direct connection between the
roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center
restaurants and a parking garage
The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects
todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not
only modern communication technologies (In-
ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-
tion (James is physically on the premises) At a
James complex rent includes a wide array of
concierge services such as receiving guests
accepting packages and purchases or reserving
concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to
mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services
such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet
care plant watering or vacation service These
services are billed separately under a pay-as-
you-go scheme
Components of full-service living
Home concierge services are new to Switzer-
land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-
nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it
mainly designates French superintendents or
caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-
cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-
sive personal services for tenants and visitors as
well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-
tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-
yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-
ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The
James concept embraces this principle When
tenants and visitors enter a James apartment
complex it should be readily apparent that this
is more than just a place to live The James ndash
Full-service Living concept can also adapt to
Patric Caillat
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Possible concept for full-service living
Source UBS GRE Switzerland
The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo
Living as a core service
Basic services included in rent
Agrave la carte services
In focus Residential real estate
UBS real estate focus January 201118
residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time
thanks to its extensive modular service off ering
The program is based on three components
residential use integrated basic services and
additional agrave la carte services
The apartment is the core service and as such
must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in
terms of location infrastructure amenities and
aesthetics The rent must also include several
basic services that are important to the target
groups This diff erentiates James from a regular
apartment complex Residents can also use
many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply
pick the services they need and pay for them
separately which makes the apartment some-
thing like a hotel To be successful the concept
has to combine these elements intelligently
while taking local circumstances into account
Other models on the market
Several models with slightly diff erent approach-
es have been launched in recent years Besides
James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-
set Management other full-service models in-
clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real
Estate Asset Management department and
ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG
Combining services with attractive living can
give a property its own unique character and
ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps
support intelligent real estate marketing How-
ever full-service living can only work if the
services benefi t users operators and owners
alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-
perience with such models it certainly has the
conditions and outlook needed to achieve a
win-win situation
Added value at an attractive price
ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work
users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat
value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to
tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er
all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-
cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go
scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start
Who is the target audience What services do they want While this
might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos
success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are
handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts
will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-
tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo
changing needs
In focus Residential real estate
Commercial real estate and special uses
The market separates the wheat from the chaff
UBS real estate focus January 201120
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in rela-
tively good shape We expect price pres-
sure from tenants to widen the perform-
ance gap between central and peripheral
locations
Offi ce space is the most important sector of
the Swiss commercial real estate market The
commercial property market was estimated
to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end
of 2009 according to Investment Property
Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this
total was offi ce space while retail properties
made up 377 percent and industrial real es-
tate 35 percent
Stable demand factors
Besides being large the offi ce property seg-
ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-
ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the
total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of
Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and
business services represent over 18 percent of
total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-
centage compared to other countries The
Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-
where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-
tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-
tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos
growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still
remained positive Part-time employment is
also becoming more widespread in Switzer-
land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies
are focusing on boosting employee productiv-
ity Future employment growth looks likely to
be moderate as a result
Rising importance of quality
The prospect of slow but positive employment
growth highlights the importance of analyzing
the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates
range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is
moderate compared to other countries and has
recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In
crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found
that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce
completions have been much higher in Ger-
man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-
zerland in recent years In 201112 around
150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the
market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2
in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the
various kinds of offi ce space on the market For
example we are skeptical about the medium-
term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-
erties (poor access to transportation and low
availability of services) on the periphery of cit-
ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-
geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-
ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be
strong expanding the labor market companies
still need to provide attractive workplaces for
their employees Easily accessible central offi ce
locations will gain even more importance Un-
der these pressures the offi ce market should
start to more clearly separate the wheat from
the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce
space is scarce should perform well while
non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle
to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral
locations will be squeezed since they are main-
ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce
functions Through renovation or new con-
structions in contrast downtown locations
should see further appreciation and attractive
returns For this reason we think rents for
high-end offi ce space should rise further
Positive appreciation rate
Despite falling interest rates and government
bond yields initial yields in the institutional
offi ce segment have hardly budged according
to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and
2009 In contrast to many European real estate
markets the appreciation rate is still positively
Commercial real estate and special uses
5
34
0ndash1
12
ndash3ndash2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
No drop in employment in Switzerland
Source Experian Business Services June 2010
Employment growth in financial and business services in percent
SwitzerlandEU15
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 21
correlated with the rental growth rate in the
Swiss offi ce property market The percentage
increase in the granting of commercial mort-
gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation
rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss
commercial property market is on solid ground
The fall in government bond yields has height-
ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-
ties driving investment demand for this asset
class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in
terms of location infrastructure amenities and
aesthetics The rent must also include several
basic services that are important to the target
groups This diff erentiates James from a regular
apartment complex Residents can also use
many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply
pick the services they need and pay for them
separately which makes the apartment some-
thing like a hotel To be successful the concept
has to combine these elements intelligently
while taking local circumstances into account
Other models on the market
Several models with slightly diff erent approach-
es have been launched in recent years Besides
James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-
set Management other full-service models in-
clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real
Estate Asset Management department and
ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG
Combining services with attractive living can
give a property its own unique character and
ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps
support intelligent real estate marketing How-
ever full-service living can only work if the
services benefi t users operators and owners
alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-
perience with such models it certainly has the
conditions and outlook needed to achieve a
win-win situation
Added value at an attractive price
ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work
users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat
value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to
tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er
all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-
cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go
scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start
Who is the target audience What services do they want While this
might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos
success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are
handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts
will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-
tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo
changing needs
In focus Residential real estate
Commercial real estate and special uses
The market separates the wheat from the chaff
UBS real estate focus January 201120
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in rela-
tively good shape We expect price pres-
sure from tenants to widen the perform-
ance gap between central and peripheral
locations
Offi ce space is the most important sector of
the Swiss commercial real estate market The
commercial property market was estimated
to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end
of 2009 according to Investment Property
Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this
total was offi ce space while retail properties
made up 377 percent and industrial real es-
tate 35 percent
Stable demand factors
Besides being large the offi ce property seg-
ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-
ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the
total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of
Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and
business services represent over 18 percent of
total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-
centage compared to other countries The
Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-
where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-
tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-
tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos
growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still
remained positive Part-time employment is
also becoming more widespread in Switzer-
land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies
are focusing on boosting employee productiv-
ity Future employment growth looks likely to
be moderate as a result
Rising importance of quality
The prospect of slow but positive employment
growth highlights the importance of analyzing
the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates
range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is
moderate compared to other countries and has
recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In
crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found
that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce
completions have been much higher in Ger-
man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-
zerland in recent years In 201112 around
150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the
market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2
in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the
various kinds of offi ce space on the market For
example we are skeptical about the medium-
term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-
erties (poor access to transportation and low
availability of services) on the periphery of cit-
ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-
geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-
ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be
strong expanding the labor market companies
still need to provide attractive workplaces for
their employees Easily accessible central offi ce
locations will gain even more importance Un-
der these pressures the offi ce market should
start to more clearly separate the wheat from
the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce
space is scarce should perform well while
non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle
to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral
locations will be squeezed since they are main-
ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce
functions Through renovation or new con-
structions in contrast downtown locations
should see further appreciation and attractive
returns For this reason we think rents for
high-end offi ce space should rise further
Positive appreciation rate
Despite falling interest rates and government
bond yields initial yields in the institutional
offi ce segment have hardly budged according
to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and
2009 In contrast to many European real estate
markets the appreciation rate is still positively
Commercial real estate and special uses
5
34
0ndash1
12
ndash3ndash2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
No drop in employment in Switzerland
Source Experian Business Services June 2010
Employment growth in financial and business services in percent
SwitzerlandEU15
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 21
correlated with the rental growth rate in the
Swiss offi ce property market The percentage
increase in the granting of commercial mort-
gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation
rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss
commercial property market is on solid ground
The fall in government bond yields has height-
ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-
ties driving investment demand for this asset
class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in rela-
tively good shape We expect price pres-
sure from tenants to widen the perform-
ance gap between central and peripheral
locations
Offi ce space is the most important sector of
the Swiss commercial real estate market The
commercial property market was estimated
to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end
of 2009 according to Investment Property
Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this
total was offi ce space while retail properties
made up 377 percent and industrial real es-
tate 35 percent
Stable demand factors
Besides being large the offi ce property seg-
ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-
ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the
total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of
Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and
business services represent over 18 percent of
total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-
centage compared to other countries The
Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-
where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-
tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-
tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos
growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still
remained positive Part-time employment is
also becoming more widespread in Switzer-
land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies
are focusing on boosting employee productiv-
ity Future employment growth looks likely to
be moderate as a result
Rising importance of quality
The prospect of slow but positive employment
growth highlights the importance of analyzing
the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates
range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is
moderate compared to other countries and has
recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In
crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found
that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce
completions have been much higher in Ger-
man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-
zerland in recent years In 201112 around
150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the
market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2
in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the
various kinds of offi ce space on the market For
example we are skeptical about the medium-
term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-
erties (poor access to transportation and low
availability of services) on the periphery of cit-
ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-
geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-
ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be
strong expanding the labor market companies
still need to provide attractive workplaces for
their employees Easily accessible central offi ce
locations will gain even more importance Un-
der these pressures the offi ce market should
start to more clearly separate the wheat from
the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce
space is scarce should perform well while
non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle
to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral
locations will be squeezed since they are main-
ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce
functions Through renovation or new con-
structions in contrast downtown locations
should see further appreciation and attractive
returns For this reason we think rents for
high-end offi ce space should rise further
Positive appreciation rate
Despite falling interest rates and government
bond yields initial yields in the institutional
offi ce segment have hardly budged according
to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and
2009 In contrast to many European real estate
markets the appreciation rate is still positively
Commercial real estate and special uses
5
34
0ndash1
12
ndash3ndash2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
No drop in employment in Switzerland
Source Experian Business Services June 2010
Employment growth in financial and business services in percent
SwitzerlandEU15
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 21
correlated with the rental growth rate in the
Swiss offi ce property market The percentage
increase in the granting of commercial mort-
gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation
rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss
commercial property market is on solid ground
The fall in government bond yields has height-
ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-
ties driving investment demand for this asset
class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff
The Swiss offi ce property market came
through the global economic crisis in rela-
tively good shape We expect price pres-
sure from tenants to widen the perform-
ance gap between central and peripheral
locations
Offi ce space is the most important sector of
the Swiss commercial real estate market The
commercial property market was estimated
to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end
of 2009 according to Investment Property
Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this
total was offi ce space while retail properties
made up 377 percent and industrial real es-
tate 35 percent
Stable demand factors
Besides being large the offi ce property seg-
ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-
ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the
total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of
Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and
business services represent over 18 percent of
total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-
centage compared to other countries The
Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-
where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-
tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-
tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos
growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still
remained positive Part-time employment is
also becoming more widespread in Switzer-
land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies
are focusing on boosting employee productiv-
ity Future employment growth looks likely to
be moderate as a result
Rising importance of quality
The prospect of slow but positive employment
growth highlights the importance of analyzing
the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates
range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is
moderate compared to other countries and has
recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In
crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found
that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce
completions have been much higher in Ger-
man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-
zerland in recent years In 201112 around
150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the
market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2
in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the
various kinds of offi ce space on the market For
example we are skeptical about the medium-
term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-
erties (poor access to transportation and low
availability of services) on the periphery of cit-
ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-
geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-
ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be
strong expanding the labor market companies
still need to provide attractive workplaces for
their employees Easily accessible central offi ce
locations will gain even more importance Un-
der these pressures the offi ce market should
start to more clearly separate the wheat from
the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce
space is scarce should perform well while
non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle
to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral
locations will be squeezed since they are main-
ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce
functions Through renovation or new con-
structions in contrast downtown locations
should see further appreciation and attractive
returns For this reason we think rents for
high-end offi ce space should rise further
Positive appreciation rate
Despite falling interest rates and government
bond yields initial yields in the institutional
offi ce segment have hardly budged according
to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and
2009 In contrast to many European real estate
markets the appreciation rate is still positively
Commercial real estate and special uses
5
34
0ndash1
12
ndash3ndash2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
No drop in employment in Switzerland
Source Experian Business Services June 2010
Employment growth in financial and business services in percent
SwitzerlandEU15
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 2011 21
correlated with the rental growth rate in the
Swiss offi ce property market The percentage
increase in the granting of commercial mort-
gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation
rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss
commercial property market is on solid ground
The fall in government bond yields has height-
ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-
ties driving investment demand for this asset
class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
that offi ce real estate investors review carefully
the riskreturn profi le for each property and
refuse to compromise on their investment cri-
teria Most buyers are using their own funds at
present and can easily tap capital markets for
their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous
years few highly geared investors are active in
the Swiss property market
The Swiss National Bank has refrained from
interest rate hikes even though the Swiss
economy emerged hale and hearty from the
global crisis and is helping to drive European
economic growth Rising interest rates would
not however automatically trigger property
devaluation in the commercial institutional
real estate market Interest rates also refl ect
prevailing economic growth Fast growth
tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-
erty valuations While this is not necessarily
an automatic reaction investors with proper-
ties in sustainable locations should not worry
if interest rates rise from the current historic
lows
Stable performance expected
Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property
market to deliver steady performance in 2011
driven by stable returns while property values
should appreciate only modestly Appreciation
rates are based on expected rental growth due
to an improving economic environment and
not on speculative changes in appreciation
returns As such the Swiss offi ce property
market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic
fundamentals
Commercial real estate and special uses
8
4
6
0
2
ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Slight potential for appreciation expected
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance
Performance of Swiss office market pa
Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return
UBS real estate focus January 201122
Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-
zerland than in many other countries This
benefi ts retailers and real estate investors
alike but investment performance in-
creasingly hinges on property quality
While its consumers did not escape the global
economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss
retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-
tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by
around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-
cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-
cent in the boom years Rising unemployment
fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-
ment started falling again in February 2010
and consumers regained confi dence This
should support retail revenue The retail sec-
tor is expected to see real revenue growth in
excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-
rent year
Concentration continues
Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and
strong economic environment relative to its
European neighbors has encouraged many
foreign retailers to set up business here In the
fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on
downtown shopping districts and prime shop-
ping centers This means lower-quality loca-
tions and shopping centers will have an uphill
battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-
quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail
property sector signifi cantly outperformed the
overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-
ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-
while rents increased by more than 3 percent
in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-
ner This is largely due to changing quality
diff erences between property categories
Performance diff erentiation
Property quality and location will become ever
more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions
and the success of retail property invest-
ments That is why we expect to see even
greater discrepancies in retail property per-
formance Construction has been proceeding
at a rapid pace in some regions recently and
older outdated shopping centers have been
renovated This has fueled competition for
tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases
in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-
ket should thus see zero growth Only high-
end locations and well-managed properties
should rise above the fl at rental trend We
also expect property appreciation rates to
settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the
years ahead
Retail space ndash zero growth expected
Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
Overview of commercial properties
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3
Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20
Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03
Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19
Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88
Offi ce space
Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12
Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash
Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484
Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104
Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584
Retail space
Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14
Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494
Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224
Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714
1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010
UBS real estate focus January 2011 23
Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword
Governments and companies have a long
history of collaboration However public-
private partners have to do more than just
work together They also need to defi ne
processes to structure their relationship
allocate risk award contracts and lay
down ground rules for the partnership
Operating maintaining and repairing a build-
ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as
much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-
cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting
for the time value of money only two thirds of
the total budget go toward the initial construc-
tion with one third consumed by operating
costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any
construction project should thus consider the
subsequent operational phase This is one of
the strengths of public-private partnerships
(PPPs)
Originally conceived abroad by governments
seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments
today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is
the fact that bidders already have to consider
the operational phase when they make their
bids PPP does not do half-measures either
Besides addressing operating costs directly the
bidders are also free to design a building and
or infrastructure that minimizes operating
costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future
operator in the bidding consortium from the
start thereby improving long-term planning
design and construction
The tendering procedure is the key
The core of every PPP project is a contract be-
tween a public-sector entity and a project com-
pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services
The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30
years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-
tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance
Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed
tendering procedures that integrate planning
design construction fi nance and operation
into the bids and encourage competition for
each stage of the project
Some government clients hold architecture
competitions and then solicit bids from com-
panies to build and operate the property This
is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-
tecture has already been determined the
private service provider has little leeway to
optimize construction andor operation in its
proposal And so while planning and opera-
tion may be more effi cient these gains are
swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-
ing costs compared to its government client
The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-
liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project
company and the public-sector client Numer-
ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring
countries have documented effi ciency gains of
15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-
ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the
effi ciency gains for above-ground projects
should range from 5 to 10 percent
Higher fi nancing costs
a hollow counterargument
Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-
vices to private providers o en argue that
companies have higher fi nancing costs than
governments Unfortunately they ignore the
fundamental diff erences between the public
sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -
nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-
quently suboptimal
PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and
quantify all visible project risks and allocate
them to whomever can best judge and bear
them The private sector provides the project
fi nance although the government client is still
able or required to furnish greater or lesser
guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-
ever they are tied to a risk event so that the
client can manage the risks properly
Many potential areas of application
PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-
tion infrastructure They have also proven
their value over the last ten years in health-
care education criminal justice and national
defense particularly outside of Switzerland
Within Switzerland PPP models will probably
play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in
the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing
reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital
property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)
was motivated by a desire to create a level
playing fi eld for public- and private-sector
operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-
ernments build and operate hospitals would
not have been conducive to achieving this
goal This does not mean however that the
public sector has pulled out of the hospital
sector Instead it should assume a new role
as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and
private partners have unlimited scope for cre-
ativity in determining how they will share the
work It is important though for work alloca-
tion arrangements to be clearly structured
and consistently implemented by both part-
ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of
ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private
sectors
Intelligent risk allocation with PPP
PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as
illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative
Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-
structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash
and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios
vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk
structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity
ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little
to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to
the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive
return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that
protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do
well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected
to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as
much as possible early on
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 25
Hospital real estate in upheaval
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex
Its structure buildings and fi nancing are
on the cusp of a radical transformation
This change opens up attractive opportu-
nities for investors
The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-
heaval Not only do the properties (largely
built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant
renovations but the hospital structure in many
cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the
widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient
treatment is creating new demands on space
that the current hospital infrastructure is un-
able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively
New hospital fi nancing as of
January 1 2012
The biggest change facing hospitals is probably
the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health
Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz
KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-
tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose
is to improve effi ciency and transparency The
reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related
groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients
Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria
such as the main diagnosis additional diag-
noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-
ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-
tal for treating the patient This contrasts with
the existing system where hospitals receive
payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-
tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using
the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and
are regularly updated They are defi ned on a
national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of
the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that
used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special
provisions have been instituted during the tran-
sition from the old to the new system of hospi-
tal fi nancing The new system however does
not cover outpatient services which continue
to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system
Unpredictable regulator
If the new system takes the form envisioned by
the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot
provide services at or below the DRG rates
Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by
and watch this happen as the cantons are re-
quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-
tient hospital services Thus the market will
probably not be given a free hand to reform
Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically
as envisaged in the amended KVG
Cantons will have to decide whether to prop
up hospitals as long as they continue to wear
several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-
late what services hospitals have to provide as
part of the hospital planning process (this
ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to
appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-
rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-
pitals themselves
Financial assessment
Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-
sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-
itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means
hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the
standard assessment criteria for corporate
fi nance The reason The competition-distort-
ing eff ects of public guarantees would run
counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-
sult investors will have to carefully review
each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before
providing equity or debt capital
Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le
and attractive catchment areas ought to be
able to easily raise capital for future operations
despite the various hurdles such as ensuring
adequate capitalization Poorly positioned
Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012
Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development
Illustrated by an example
Func
tion
s
inte
rfac
esSe
rvic
es
floor
spa
ce
Sour
ces
of fu
ndin
g
Investor
Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator
Canton
Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)
Hospital Ltd or other legal structure
Hospital
SwissDRGCantonsInsurance
Private households
Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease
Management contract
Lease
Outpatient treatment
Inpatient treatmentCommon areas
Subleases
TARMED
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Markus Wagemann
Wealth Management amp
Swiss Bank UBS AG
Christian Unternaumlhrer
Niklaus Scheerer
UBS real estate focus January 201126
ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into
diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend
funds at market rates if private investors do not
provide enough backing This inherent contra-
diction of the future fi nancing system should
be addressed however to prevent the emer-
gence of other structures that distort competi-
tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all
viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private
investors if they pay market interest rates that
refl ect the risk exposure This government in-
tervention in the Swiss hospital system will
make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-
sition and market appeal As a result all pri-
vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to
pay a non-transparency premium
Attractive opportunities for real estate
investors
Despite or perhaps because of the complexity
of the Swiss hospital system we believe this
market off ers attractive opportunities for real
estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-
structure to the medical processes and diff er-
ent space requirements of in- and outpatient
treatment it can become a cost leader and
achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-
tion other favorable factors such as the health-
care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and
the high entry barriers for new providers due
largely to heavy regulation Investors however
should familiarize themselves with the com-
plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-
cept fi nancial models other than the typical
renting model In this special segment of the
real estate market other characteristics of suc-
cessful investors include openness and creativ-
ity in providing services that go beyond merely
providing rooms Investors who put in the
work will be rewarded with the prospect of
attractive cash fl ow yields
Some key aspects of due diligence
The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to
change years ago While the number of general hospitals has
dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady
Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly
fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be
considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-
mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should
be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-
dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos
market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons
handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect
hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the
cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates
pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below
the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from
providing their services effi ciently
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
UBS real estate focus January 2011 27
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound
The global real estate market is frag-
mented along national and regional lines
o en making entrance into specifi c mar-
kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real
estate investment products can overcome
these barriers and they off er attractive
diversifi cation opportunities in a global
economy
According to DTZ Research commercial real
estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in
global investment volume at the end of 2009
Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North
America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c
Besides their relative size these regional mar-
kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its
own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-
tors and expected risks and returns While resi-
dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-
man and US markets commercial properties
play a key role in most European countries with
high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant
laws and leases also vary considerably from
country to country Leases tend to be shorter
in Continental Europe than in the UK British
and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only
lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes
to be imposed in periods of economic
strength but prohibit reductions when times
are tough In Continental Europe by contrast
rents are o en indexed typically to consumer
price indexes While this prevents landlords
from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-
kets it also protects them against infl ation
over the lease term
Constructing a global real estate portfolio
Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-
tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but
also boost returns Diversifi cation in general
reduces risk If investors also wish to increase
returns they can incorporate other sectors
and stages of investment into their global
real estate strategy In short there are many
ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of
international real estate investments The
graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-
tions of real estate investments (for example
French offi ce buildings and German residen-
tial real estate) along with maximum and
minimum total returns between 1995 and
today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest
gap between the best and worst performers
60 percent In this asset class unfortunately
investors cannot move quickly and easily be-
tween countries and sectors That makes it
especially important for them to be prudent
and farsighted with their tactical and strate-
gic asset allocations
There are two basic approaches to construct-
ing an international real estate portfolio First
direct investments can be made in properties
on the private market or in unlisted funds or
funds of funds Second indirect investments
can be made in real estate funds or real estate
corporations that are listed on an exchange
Direct real estate investments
The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic
increase in open-ended unlisted real estate
funds that regularly issue and redeem shares
This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-
clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that
since unlisted funds own real properties they
are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive
side for investors fund units are denominated
and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-
tual properties and so are much easier to buy
and sell The investment vehicle can only boost
liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-
ments which may dilute the performance of
its real estate portfolio
45
0
ndash15
15
30
ndash45
ndash30
2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999
Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities
Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Global range of returns by countrysector in percent
Global minimumGlobal maximum
Swiss average
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Gunnar Herm
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201128
Indirect investments
Many investors implement their global real es-
tate strategy with listed funds or companies
because they seem more liquid than direct in-
vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but
it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If
the real estate strategy allocates a large share
of assets to listed real estate investments the
portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet
as market prices fall Even though the market
for listed real estate investments is about as
effi cient as global equity markets it remains
diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge
against market corrections
History shows that listed real estate companies
deliver a long-term return comparable to direct
real estate investments a er adjusting for the
cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting
prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-
erally fall within these two extremes in terms of
risk and return
Trends and outlook
Valuations in most global property markets fell
precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The
lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-
ened the gap between real estate returns and
low-yielding government bonds These gaps
even reached historical highs in some cases
which beginning in the second half of 2009
heartened investors to move back into real
estate stabilizing property valuations While
acknowledging the fragile economic environ-
ment in most Western property markets we
are cautiously optimistic about the future In
2011 global investment strategies should focus
on maintaining current returns We do not ex-
pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did
before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor
correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we
see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone
countries The focus in most Asian markets is
on value-added and opportunistic investment
strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-
tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-
vestors with strong risk appetites should seek
exposure to these regions in our view
Continental Europe appeals
Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the
investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-
term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on
the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets
In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-
formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to
grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-
tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les
Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-
ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real
estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from
nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-
tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a
very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions
are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income
infl ation and interest rates
In focus Commercial real estate and special uses
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years
UBS real estate focus January 201130
Real estate equities ndash on solid ground
Real estate equities performed well in
2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and
partly due to a favorable economic envi-
ronment The coming year looks to be
much tougher though
Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable
environment of 2010 no overheated markets
a rapid economic recovery robust demand and
falling interest rates Companies also invested
further in their properties which buoyed per-
formance Several made up for the corrections
from late 2008 and early 2009 and even
reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-
zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss
Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property
Moderate potential for NAV appreciation
A er strong relative and absolute performance
in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-
ciation of net asset value Long-term investors
can still hold these shares for their attractive
dividend yields which we expect to remain high
for some time to come The leading real estate
companies are paying dividends as a return of
share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our
overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities
is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-
talize on price dips by adding to their positions
Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means
real estate prices should fall somewhat over the
next two years However long residual lease
terms should so en and contain the fallout for
leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The
average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an
impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-
quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates
of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the
upcoming two years
Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special
niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate
companies Allreal generates around one quar-
ter of its earnings by designing and building
properties We expect it to see more moderate
demand given the decline in real estate prices
and long-term rise in interest rates However
Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion
Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times
the divisionrsquos annual revenue
Attractive niches
Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive
airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow
Even with the recession passenger volumes at
Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009
We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-
cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the
short term recovering global demand for air
travel will drive growth In the medium term it
will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-
rich Airport The airport has also launched
ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-
velopment project with attractive long-term
growth prospects located next to the airport
With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen
Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate
shares in Switzerland
Listed real estate and investment foundations
400
300350
150100
200250
050
2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)
SPSPSP
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 2011 31
Listed real estate and investment foundations
170
120110
140130
150160
90100
32
2428
128
1620
04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Positive trend in various markets
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns
Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)
SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)
Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)
Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal
to investors because they combine fea-
tures of stocks bonds and real estate
This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-
fi les of funds making them an attractive
choice for mixed portfolios
Real estate funds have a long history ndash over
50 years in some cases O en considered bor-
ing and opaque they have recently experienced
a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-
ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for
a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable
and interesting returns attractive dividends in-
vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -
cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in
some cases good protection against infl ation
Together these traits enable real estate funds to
trade at a premium (the diff erence between the
trading price and net asset value) in almost any
market
Investor protection is vital
Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to
protect investors First funds can only change
the number of units outstanding under special
circumstances such as secondary off erings Real
estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-
tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-
nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)
The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing
more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market
value Also investors can redeem units at the net
asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice
prior to close of the fi nancial year
The start of this century ushered in several struc-
tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-
dated many of their products the market had
been crowded with too many real estate funds
with similar objectives Reporting was also made
more transparent to appeal to investors Finally
the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand
for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-
term interest rates were (and still are) very low
and long-term rates fell a short time later As
bond yields plummeted the spread widened on
dividend yields for real estate funds and the
funds began to look more attractive
Demographic developments also boosted de-
mand for the residential property held by most
of the real estate funds German immigrants
fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving
up housing demand and prices British workers
and other foreign nationals immigrated to the
French-speaking regions and had a similar im-
pact on the local real estate market
Recognized as a conservative asset class
The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically
low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-
mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt
by every exchange-traded security ndash including
real estate funds While the long-term premium
averages around 15 percent some real estate
funds actually traded at a discount during this
period Investors however quickly realized that
real estate funds are conservative investments
with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-
cent Now more investors are interested in ac-
tively and passively managed real estate funds
especially since early 2009
The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains
all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds
gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-
pressive showing for such a conservative asset
class Strong infl ows of new money from direct
investors and new products in this market
fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared
to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due
to the limited number of units and premiums
rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-
agers raised more equity through secondary
and rights off erings The additional capital was
largely invested in order to minimize dilution
Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios
Dalibor Maksimovic
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
UBS real estate focus January 201132
Attractive debt fi nancing
Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing
very attractive forcing many real estate funds to
rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-
rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-
efi cial and would not change their defensive
nature in our view Real estate funds are now
15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal
maximum of 50 percent
Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-
ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are
seeking to list existing funds and launching new
funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-
one real estate funds trade on exchanges and
represent an aggregate market capitalization of
around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-
ings and secondary off erings have expanded this
segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since
2003 And the future promises to see even more
off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in
December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will
continue to generate interest in this asset class
The environment is currently very favorable for
real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-
ingly should bring down the prices of real estate
funds at least in the short term Given the low
returns on comparable investments we think
demand for real estate funds among private and
institutional investors should remain intact Inter-
est in this asset class even seems to be increasing
slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-
sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around
18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the
2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss
francs
Listed real estate and investment foundations
Overview of listed real estate
Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year
Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2
Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123
Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804
Real estate funds
Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52
Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01
Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112
Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344
Benchmark
Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91
Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)
4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds
UBS real estate focus January 2011 33
The rise of Swiss real estate equities
This young segment of the Swiss equity
market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-
tions rights issues and secondary off er-
ings Despite their short histories and
rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real
estate equities are good choices for de-
fensive long-term investors
The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate
company in November 2010 Formed in 1999
and controlled by the Wolfensberger family
Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-
oping luxury European housing since 2006 and
has traded under its current name since 2008
It follows Orascom Development as the only
other publicly traded Swiss real estate company
to focus on designing and building properties
in Switzerland and abroad
Allreal also made headlines this year with a
rights off ering in May that increased its share
capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-
ed in real estate projects This continues All-
realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every
two to three years in order to fi nance its strong
organic growth
Intershop ndash the industry veteran
Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly
traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest
listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established
in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-
change since 1972 It mainly developed com-
mercial properties in France Germany and
Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since
1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the
domestic real estate market
But real estate companies have only been
traded as an industry segment for a little over
10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big
bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-
nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in
only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took
its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public
in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-
surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed
PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss
Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann
Holding became a publicly traded pure-play
real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-
ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as
REG Real Estate Group the company was
acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site
(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was
originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life
the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-
mens pension fund for Switzerland
Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948
as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and
was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April
2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly
known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen
Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact
90 percent of its operating income comes
from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly
a real estate company and an attractive addi-
tion to the Swiss property segment
Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms
Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the
aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real
estate companies until it attracted international
attention First PSP then SPS were added to
the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx
Europe 600 The index currently contains
18 European real estate shares two of which
are Swiss
Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues
and secondary off erings we still see plenty of
upside for this industry Publicly traded real
estate companies only hold 1 percent of the
estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-
tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial
sector but still remains in the single digits This
2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500
Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth
Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR
Market capitalization in CHF million
Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property
Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal
Orascom DevMobimo
IntershopWarteck Invest
Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property
Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen
Eastern PropertyUSI Group
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Stefan R Meyer
Wealth Management Research
UBS AG
The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions
UBS real estate focus January 201134
leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate
industry to grow
More capital market activity expected
The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage
in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings
and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of
the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and
secondary off erings help companies to main-
tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and
through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth
spurts and generally unleash synergies in the
form of cost savings and economies of scale
Swiss commercial real estate is currently the
most important segment The biggest player in
this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-
mercial property companies also have signifi -
cant exposure to housing They include Allreal
followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest
Onward and upward
The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-
stone when foreign property fi rms entered the
market Eastern Property Holding which is still
incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was
listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005
It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe
and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the
listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-
based urban developer and hotel investor
Though it generates much of its income in the
Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-
rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-
ties include the development of the Andermatt
Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed
strong advance sales
The real estate industry has established a
strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and
achieved a market capitalization well in excess
of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms
already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within
a wide variety of subsegments Real estate
companies have enjoyed a very successful rise
on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt
continue onward and upward
Big names attractive as core investments
Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-
mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient
upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned
Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the
world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-
dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business
strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-
stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-
gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate
more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-
ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the
SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for
many diff erent investor interests
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 35
Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds
Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-
lings of private and institutional investors
Strong demand has given rise to new prod-
ucts and improved transparency More
IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings
should keep market momentum strong
Real estate funds are attractive investments
particularly in changing uncertain economic
environments Since they are governed by the
Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the
funds off er stability healthy dividends robust
investor protection and liquidity through con-
tinuous trading on the exchange Demand
among investors is so strong in fact that es-
tablished players have started launching new
products while nimble young providers are
rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-
verse of products will only continue to get larg-
er and more diverse To keep up investors
need to know the main trends in exchange-
traded real estate funds
Real estate funds can be evaluated at three
levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on
an exchange (2) the product and its various
structural variants and (3) the value of the
property portfolio which varies depending on
property quality and management Exchange-
traded real estate funds have made progress at
all three levels
Greater transparency and comparability
Real estate funds have recently become much
more transparent to investors Guidelines is-
sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for
example require each fund to regularly publish
key data to improve product comparability
Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-
mance distribution yield and premium (per-
centage diff erence between trading price and
net asset value) the data also includes product
and property indicators such as investment
return and rent default rate Direct product
comparisons can also use indexes that measure
market performance Two such indexes are
maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks
the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-
er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate
funds Fund providers are making their report-
ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly
traded stock corporations
New products and tax-effi cient structures
The product level has experienced two major
changes First many new real estate funds
have been launched in the past several years
Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX
Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in
excess of 20 billion francs The market has also
seen the infl ux of several small funds many of
which specialize in western Swiss property as
well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-
selves by focusing on sustainability or other
issues
Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have
become more widespread since the Collective
Investment Schemes Act was enacted four
years ago Direct investment funds buy and
hold properties directly indirect funds hold
them through real estate companies Most
new funds adopt the direct investment struc-
ture because it off ers tax breaks for private
investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-
vate investors do not have to pay income and
wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage
is also important with Swiss real estate funds
being very modestly geared at around 20 per-
cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund
managers have to decide whether to borrow
funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-
ondary off ering As it turns out several funds
have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-
ferings as the real estate fund market has
grown in recent years
3000
2500
1500
1000
2000
500
0
30
15
10
20
25
0
5
2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010
Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage
Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings
Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)
Daniel Bruumlllmann
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201136
Strong demand for sustainable growth
New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-
vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-
formance Sustainability is one such trend
More fund managers are investing in proper-
ties that not only meet environmental criteria
for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)
but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-
tainability also plays a role in property up-
grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment
complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s
can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption
Many real estate funds particularly older ones
can generate more growth from their portfo-
lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-
ploiting latent potential through the construc-
tion of additions or replacement buildings on
existing land Funds can also become involved
in new construction and project developments
in order to expand their portfolios with new
properties To do this though fund managers
must have the expertise and ability to carry out
these complex projects
The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in
recent years shows that many investors are
interested in these products This is probably
due to the solid product structures and strong
demand for Swiss real estate Given current
trends at all levels we have no doubt that the
real estate fund industry will remain a success
story in the future too
Compare products carefully
Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but
tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a
high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than
direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net
asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund
portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values
Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-
er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real
estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-
change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the
price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-
mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default
rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to
compare the performance of individual products over several years
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 2011 37
Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance
Investment foundations hold real estate
investments with strong market positions
and impressive momentum They off er
attractive product features Pension
fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-
nifi cant contribution to fueling growth
The purpose of investment foundations is to
collectively invest and manage assets How-
ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-
pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)
domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-
ment foundations operate in Switzerland
26 belong to the Conference of Managers of
Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established
in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for
investment foundations
Attractive basic features
Investment foundations have several key fea-
tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors
investment rules governed by occupational
pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-
ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo
occupational pension institutions will for the
fi rst time become explicitly regulated under
Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-
sion plans
Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed
by country of investment (Switzerland global)
and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded
based on net asset value or NAV) Most
groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate
they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs
in assets There are currently 22 investment
groups with residential commercial or mixed
portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-
ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate
assets These investment groups are also much
less indebted than real estate funds or stock
corporations with debt levels averaging
around 10 percent
Rapid increase in real estate assets
The graph shows the rapid increase in assets
held by investment groups in the KGAST Real
Estate Index over the past decade While asset
performance almost stagnated until 2001
KGAST began admitting more pure-play real
estate investment foundations in 2004 This
stimulated the market as did numerous re-
launches of existing foundations The volume
of real estate assets has recently swelled by
2 billion francs per year on average The
number of vehicles also increased sharply In
2000 the market was split between three in-
vestment groups with real estate assets total-
ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-
trast at least fi ve new groups entered the
market Other groups are being established
and KGAST is preparing to admit other real
estate investment foundations Real estate in-
vestments have gained considerable he in the
last decade ndash within and outside of investment
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland
Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)
Urs Faumls
Global Asset Management
UBS AG
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
UBS real estate focus January 201138
Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-
ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-
ever are currently closed to new investors This
protects existing investors and prevents profi ts
and returns from being diluted unnecessarily
Due to high demand for real estate investment
groups capital increases are o en oversub-
scribed in some cases by a wide margin
Asset swaps ndash the new trend
Pension funds can swap their directly owned
properties for shares in an investment founda-
tion This is an attractive option for funds They
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange
for real estate but o en do not change their
tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete
and generally cover three phases preparation
closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues
warrant special attention Swiss pension funds
are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-
es on property gains and transfers Even so real
estate can still be transferred to an investment
foundation without incurring high property-gain
or transfer taxes Each transaction however
has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax
authorities
KGAST surveyed its members about asset
swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset
swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss
francs in transaction volume since 2002 The
past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth
around 90 million Swiss francs This period can
be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and
2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a
handful of large transactions worth slightly
more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The
second witnessed a larger number of swaps
The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine
transactions worth over 380 million Swiss
francs in total The most important sector was
residential property at 87 percent Asset
swaps will remain an important trend with
annual volume estimated at around 500 million
Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type
of transaction should keep the real estate
investment groups of investment foundations
growing at a rapid rate
Valuable solutions
Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-
lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss
properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-
vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase
good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments
are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high
premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)
Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily
go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires
experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors
should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that
meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and
valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset
swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real
estate investments
In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations
Our services
UBS real estate focus January 201140
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services
Our services
Real estate advisory
Real Estate Advisory
Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull
services on the Swiss real estate market
Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull
corporate finance lifecycle advisory
Real estate brokerage
Real Estate Advisory
Sale of high-end residential properties bull
starting at 5 million Swiss francs
Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and
up in exclusive locations
Real estate advisory
Real estate research
Succession planning
Real estate brokerage
Real estate
Retirement planning
Mortgage products
Asset Management
real estateglobal
Asset Management
real estateSwitzerland
Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull
back asset swaps PPPs
Advisory for companies individuals bull
institutional investors pension funds
Real estate support with relocation bull
(companies or individuals)
UBS real estate focus January 2011 41
Asset Management real estate global
Global Real Estate
Access to global direct and indirect real bull
estate investment products
Development of international real estate bull
investment strategies and solutions
Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland
Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull
products
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull
tional segments such as property purchases
sales project developments asset swaps
Retirement planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Customized comprehensive risk and bull
retirement advisory
Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull
mortgage amortization insurance)
Succession planning
Wealth Planning Switzerland
Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull
nial and inheritance law
Advisory services on various conveyancing bull
options sale inheritance or gift
Real estate research
Wealth Management Real Estate Research
Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull
global real estate markets
Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull
municipalities and regions
Present in every major city worldwide with bull
around 400 real estate specialists
Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull
manager
sale and rent back private-public
partnerships
Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull
funds with over 65 years of experience
Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull
financing
Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull
usufructuary or residential rights property
gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)
Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull
exchange-traded real estate investments
Real estate presentations at various events bull
Our services
Mortgage products
Banking Products
Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull
mortgages specific mortgage solutions
Interest rate hedging products whole life bull
insurance
Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull
holiday properties multifamily dwellings and
commercial real estate
As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor
Asset Management real estate Switzerland
UBS real estate focus January 201142
Selection of research publications
WMR reports
WMR reports are the primary source of
investment ideas presenting the rationale
behind our calls along with actionable
conclusions They are published during the
day and mostly driven by current market
developments
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide
UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to
UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the
latest global economic developments to-
gether with market analyses and recommen-
dations for equities bonds currencies and
the emerging markets
Available in English German French Italian
traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese
UBS research focus
UBS research focus examines how major
global trends aff ect personal wealth planning
decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c
subject spanning the fi elds of economics
fi nancial markets and investment
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish and Portuguese
Sept 2010 The rush for resources
challenges emerging markets
Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane
Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors
should value innovation
UBS outlook Switzerland
UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to
Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue
presents the results of UBS Research
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service
companies regarding their business outlook
as well as analysis of currencies interest rates
and the real estate market The fourth quarter
2010 issue focuses on succession issues for
family businesses
Available in German French and Italian
UBS investorrsquos guide update
The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is
designed for active investors who want to use
short-term opportunities in the markets and
make investment decisions based on sound
information These electronic updates com-
plement the extensive monthly edition
Available in English German French and
Italian
UBS global outlook
UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication
that provides a comprehensive assessment of
the global macroeconomic outlook key in-
vestment opportunities and important fi nan-
cial market risks
Available in English German French Italian
Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese
simplifi ed Chinese and Russian
OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at
wwwubscomresearch
Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking
The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more
Daily
Order or subscribe
UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to
sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom
Thematic
Weekly Monthly
UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010
Global economy divided in 2011
Equities our preferred investment
New rules No major currency should be considered safe
New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income
Look beyond traditional investments
2011A fractured world
Quarterly Quarterly
UBS real estate focus January 2011 43
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved
Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-
ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an
off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in
materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be
eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and
opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be
contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-
panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other
services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities
is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to
control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-
ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on
realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income
of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we
would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document
may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document
to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report
is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law
Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney
New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be
used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-
mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not
intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not
intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce
Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this
publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment
Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-
tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69
boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized
according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des
Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland
AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong
Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-
nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law
and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-
lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to
the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under
Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-
sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch
an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to
clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery
of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in
the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-
ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A
member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside
the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into
the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of
UBS AG
Version as per January 2010
copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved