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ab Market drivers Continued upswing for the real estate market Residential real estate Increased threat level for private homes Commercial real estate Quality more important than ever Listed real estate Last yearʹ s performance hard to beat The real estate market in Switzerland 2011 UBS real estate focus Research Switzerland January 2011
44

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Apr 11, 2018

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Page 1: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

ab

Market drivers Continued upswing for the real estate market

Residential real estate Increased threat level for private homes

Commercial real estate Quality more important than ever

Listed real estate Last yearʹs performance hard to beat

The real estate market in Switzerland2011

UBS real estate focusResearch Switzerland

January 2011

UBS real estate focus January 20112

Content

UBS real estate focus 2011

This report has been prepared by UBS AG

Please see the important disclaimer at the

end of the document Past performance is

not an indication of future returns The

market prices provided are closing prices on

the respective principal stock exchange

Publisher

UBS AG Wealth Management Research

(WMR) PO Box CH-8098 Zurich

Editor in chief

Claudio Saputelli

Editors

Anna Marie Focagrave Roy Greenspan

Authors

Daniel Bruumlllmann Patric Caillat Urs Faumls

Gunnar Herm Caesar Lack

Dalibor Maksimovic Stefan R Meyer

Achim Peijan Claudio Saputelli

Niklaus Scheerer Christian Unternaumlhrer

Thomas Veraguth Markus Wagemann

Editorial deadline

3 January 2011

Project management

Caspar Heer

Desktop

Werner Kuonen Margrit Oppliger

Linda Sutter

Translation

24translate St Gallen Switzerland

Pictures

wwwmasterfi lecom

Printer

Druckerei Flawil AG Flawil Switzerland

Languages

English German French and Italian

Contact

ubs-researchubscom

These authors are from units outside Wealth Manage-ment Research These units are not subject to all legal provisions governing the independence of fi nancial research The ldquoDirectives on the Independence of Financial Researchrdquo issued by the Board of Directors of the Swiss Bankers Association (SBA) do not apply

SAP No 83518E-1101

Editorial 3

At a glance 4

Market drivers

Business cycle and income 6

Infl ation and interest rates 7

Population and employment 8

Overview of property market drivers 8

Residential real estate

Homes ndash elevated threat level 10

Rental apartments ndash steady returns 12

Overview of residential properties 12

In focus

Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory 13

Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game 15

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend 17

Commercial real estate and special uses

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff 20

Retail space ndash zero growth expected 22

Overview of commercial properties 22

In focus

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword 23

Hospital real estate in upheaval 25

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation

opportunities abound 27

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground 30

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios 31

Overview of listed real estate 32

In focus

The rise of Swiss real estate equities 33

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds 35

Property investment groups of investment

foundations ndash on the advance 37

Our services

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services 40

Selection of research publications 42

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can subscribe to the print version of UBS real estate focus via their client advisor or

the Printed amp Branded Products Mailbox sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Electronic subscription is also available via the WMR portal on the UBS e-banking platform

UBS real estate focus January 2011 3

Editorial

Daniel Kalt

Claudio Saputelli

Dear reader

ldquoReal estate is at the core of almost every businessrdquo claims US real estate mogul

Donald Trump He is right ndash to an extent It is true that real estate dominates the

workdays of the authors of this new publication UBS real estate focus What really

matters for our business however is our clients They get us involved in a variety of

issues from basic advisory services on property transactions to complex fi nancing

deals for large PPP projects

Besides serving clients UBSrsquos real estate teams also gain insights by sharing ideas

and supporting one another in an internal network Over the years they have ac-

quired a broad and deep base of real estate expertise We share this expertise with

you in UBS real estate focus our new in-depth annual study of the real estate mar-

ket Every year brings new insights In our quest to fi nd client-specifi c real estate

solutions we continue to challenge ourselves explore new disciplines and develop

innovative ideas

UBS real estate focus consists of four chapters The fi rst chapter ldquoMarket driversrdquo

explains the main macroeconomic factors aff ecting the Swiss real estate market

The next two chapters ldquoResidential propertyrdquo and ldquoCommercial property and spe-

cial usesrdquo focus on direct real estate investments Chapter four looks at indirect real

estate investments ndash investment foundations and listed real estate Each chapter

begins with a market overview followed by three focus articles on the latest market

issues This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover

We hope that UBS real estate focus will help you make sound real estate decisions

We have made our analyses more actionable by including boxes with recommenda-

tions in the focus articles We do agree with Donald Trump in one regard ldquoIn order

to build your wealth and improve your business smarts you need to know about

real estaterdquo

We hope you enjoy reading this issue of UBS real estate focus

Claudio Saputelli

Head Real Estate Research

Wealth Management Research

Daniel Kalt

Chief Economist Switzerland

Wealth Management Research

UBS real estate focus January 20114

At a glance

Residential real estate

Home prices continue to soar This up-

ward trend has not fl attened out as ex-

pected in previous quarters The public is

increasingly worried about a real estate

bubble ndash with some justifi cation Caution

is advised Page 10

The rental apartment market is stable and

harbors upside potential Prices for multi-

family dwellings have made commercial

properties increasingly attractive to inves-

tors Page 12

In focus

Imputed rental values ndash

a violation of classic tax theory

The taxation of imputed rental values as

income is controversial For years there

have been heated discussions about this

issue Last summer the Federal Council

threw its hat in the ring supporting a

total abolition of the tax in order to sim-

plify the tax code Page 13

Occupational pension with -

drawals ndash a dangerous game

An estimated 520000 withdrawals have

been made from retirement accounts since

1995 The withdrawn capital is expected

to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010

The possible impact on future retirement

benefi ts remains unknown but the risks

should not be ignored Page 15

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand

for greater comfort and higher living

standards Already established abroad

this model is fast gaining adherents in

Switzerland Page 17

Commercial real estate and

special uses

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in

relatively good shape We expect price

pressure from tenants to widen the per-

formance gap between central and

peripheral locations Page 20

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance increas-

ingly hinges on property quality Page 22

In focus

Public-private partnership ndash more

than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a

long history of collaboration However

public-private partners have to do more

than just work together They also need

to defi ne processes to structure their

relationship allocate risk award con-

tracts and lay down ground rules for

the partnership Page 23

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors Page 25

Global real estate investments ndash

diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy Page 27

Listed real estate and investment

foundations

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits

and partly due to a favorable economic

environment The coming year looks to

be much tougher though Page 30

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn

profi les of funds making them an attrac-

tive choice for mixed portfolios

Page 31

In focus

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors Page 33

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded

real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current

darlings of private and institutional inves-

tors Strong demand has given rise to

new products and improved transpar-

ency More IPOs rights issues and sec-

ondary off erings should keep market

momentum strong Page 35

Property investment groups of

investment foundations ndash

on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market posi-

tions and impressive momentum They

off er attractive product features Pen-

sion fundsrsquo property contributions make

a signifi cant contribution to fueling

growth Page 37

UBS real estate focus January 2011 5

Market drivers

Green lights ahead for key demand drivers

UBS real estate focus January 20116

Market drivers

Business cycle and income

We expect the Swiss economy to grow

more than 2 percent in the next two years

This is well above the historical average

and should boost real estate prices

The Swiss economy has been on the rebound

since mid-2009 Its recession was much mild er

than in most other industrialized western coun-

tries Indeed the Swiss economy is not only

recovering faster than expected it is recovering

faster than the rest of Europe According to the

State Secretariat for Economic Aff airs (Seco) real

gross domestic product (GDP) has expanded an

average of 3 percent in terms of annualized

quarter-on-quarter growth since the recession

ended It even broke above precrisis levels in the

third quarter of 2010

Suffi cient skilled personnel and healthy

balance sheets

The Swiss economy probably owes its surpris-

ingly strong momentum to an agreement with

the European Union on the free movement of

persons Free movement stimulates economic

growth by making it easier for companies to

hire skilled staff The resulting immigration also

supports consumption and construction invest-

ment and directly increases GDP Plus unlike

many other industrialized western countries

Switzerlandrsquos private- and public-sector balance

sheets are in rude health Switzerland is one of

the few countries that did not live beyond its

means in the run-up to the crisis Compared

to other countries Switzerland as a whole

(governments households and companies) has

relatively large holdings of net foreign assets

ndash over 100 percent of GDP Switzerland is also

in an enviable position in terms of public fi -

nances It has a nearly balanced budget and

gross debt ratio of around 40 percent This

positions it to weather the current debt crisis

much better than the highly indebted majority

of industrialized western countries

Following the meteoric upswing of recent

quarters we expect economic growth to con-

tinue at robust albeit lower levels Growth will

be supported by continued immigration a glo-

bal economic upturn and the Swiss National

Bankrsquos very expansive monetary policy Specifi -

cally we expect the economy to grow 23 per-

cent in 2011 and 21 percent in 2012 This is

signifi cantly higher than the average growth

rate of 17 percent over the last 30 years Due

to the strong franc domestic consumption will

probably drive growth instead of exports as in

the precrisis years

Economic growth fuels demand for

real estate

International studies have found that the in-

come elasticity of housing demand is slightly

below 1 In other words a 1 percent increase

in income leads to an increase in housing

spending of slightly less than 1 percent The

expected growth rates which are relatively

high in historical comparison should lead to

a correspondingly high increase in housing

spending While this spending will most likely

fuel the construction of new housing it

should also drive up the prices of existing resi-

dential properties due to the scarcity of land

in Switzerland Prices for commercial real es-

tate should also benefi t from the strong do-

mestic economy

114112

108110

102100

104106

9698

2008 2009 20102005 2006 2007

Strong Swiss economy

Sources Reuters EcoWin UBS WMR

Inflation-adjusted GDP 1st quarter 2005 = 100

SwitzerlandGermany

SpainFrance

United Kingdom USItaly

Caesar Lack

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 7

Market drivers

2008 2009 2010 20112002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Historically low interest rates about to end

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Historical and projected interest rates in percent

4540

3035

1510

2025

005

Money market rates (Libor 3-m)5-year interest rates (swap)

10-year interest rates (swap)

Forecast

Interest rates in Switzerland are extremely

low right now We expect this to change in

2011 The domestic economyrsquos robust

growth expected rise in infl ation and nec-

essary tightening of monetary policy all

point to higher interest rates

Imports account for over one quarter of the

basket of goods used to track consumer price

infl ation ndash petroleum products alone make up

almost 5 percent The strong franc has fueled

import price defl ation in recent months which

has dragged year-on-year infl ation below 05

percent as measured by the national consumer

price index Since we do not expect the franc

to appreciate further we think exchange rates

should gradually lose their defl ationary power

this year Commodity prices have also risen

sharply in recent months together with the

elimination of the exchange rate eff ect this

should drive up import prices during the year

The persistent strength of the domestic econo-

my should also drive up the prices of domestic

goods We expect infl ation to reach almost

1 percent in 2011 and to trend towards

2 percent in 2012

SNB to make interest rate move in fi rst

half-year

UBS Economic Research Switzerland forecasts

higher infl ation than the Swiss National Bank

(SNB) The SNB surprisingly lowered its infl ation

forecast in its monetary policy assessment of

September 2010 and confi rmed its low infl a-

tion forecast in its monetary policy assessment

of December 2010 We expect the SNB to raise

its infl ation forecast again and possibly hike

interest rates 025 percent in the fi rst half of

the year to prevent the domestic economy and

real estate markets from overheating

Swiss Confederation bonds are benefi ting from

their status as an international safe haven

Europersquos debt crisis and loose monetary policy

worldwide have driven investors into Swiss

government bonds and pushed yields down to

levels not seen since 1965

We believe however that investors should

prepare themselves for rising interest rates and

bond yields in the medium term The economic

recovery should continue and loose monetary

policy should tighten up during the year Bond

markets usually preempt monetary tightening

and raise yields in advance Overall higher in-

terest rates will probably be introduced gradu-

ally and we expect interest rates to remain

historically low this year

Financing terms remain attractive

Real estate fi nancing will remain inexpensive

for now which will support real estate prices

The mortgage reference interest rate used to

calculate residential rents will rise marginally

but not until the second half of the year Rent

increases on commercial properties will also be

limited They are generally tied to infl ation

which is currently low

Infl ation and interest rates

Achim Peijan

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

Caesar Lack

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 20118

Market drivers

Population growth has been above aver-

age in recent years fueled mainly by an

exceptionally high infl ux of immigrants

Employment has remained surprisingly

robust since the 2009 recession The

fi nancial crisis has barely le a mark on

the tertiary sector

Switzerlandrsquos population has grown vigor-

ously for the 33rd year in a row Our extra-

polation based on provisional monthly data

provided by the Federal Statistical Offi ce pre-

dicts growth of 11 percent in 2010 Over the

last 40 years Switzerland has only seen pop-

ulation growth exceed 1 percent seven times

ndash including four out of the last four years

The free movement of persons from the EU-

17 and EFTA member states instituted in

June 2007 has obviously le its mark This

fi nding is borne out by a detailed analysis

of net migration While net migration (in-

cluding status changes) accounted for about

50 percent of population growth in the

1980s and 1990s it has recently contributed

80 percent and more (2007 91 percent) The

cantons of Vaud Obwalden Fribourg Ge-

neva Aargau and Zurich likely experienced

above-average growth in 2010 Given the

positive economic prospects overall we ex-

pect the population to grow around 1 per-

cent again in 2011

Employment also growing

Employment has also grown in recent years In

terms of full-time equivalents (FTEs) employ-

ment climbed a record-breaking 84 percent

during the 2005ndash2008 boom period In 2009

however total employment became sluggish for

several quarters The slowdown was largely con-

centrated in manufacturing although employ-

ment numbers went up again slightly in the third

quarter of 2010 This has also brightened senti-

ment in the secondary sector The service sector

by contrast recorded overall growth of 07 per-

cent even in the depths of the 2009 recession

The commercial real estate market is mainly af-

fected by the offi ce and retail sectors In the fi rst

three quarters of 2010 the offi ce sector saw a

negligible 02 percent year-on-year increase in

employment Retail employment also managed

to grow during this period ndash by 12 percent

Thus retail more than compensated for the prior

yearrsquos drop in employment

Housing demand remains strong

Continued population growth should keep hous-

ing demand strong Prices will only so en ndash espe-

cially for privately owned homes ndash if residential

construction steps up In the commercial real

estate market demand for retail space is show-

ing signs of improvement Demand for offi ce

space by contrast will most likely be driven by

space optimization

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

Population and employment

Overview of property market drivers

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Business cycle and income 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Real gross domestic product 23 27 ndash19 19 17

Real construction investment 13 34 30 00 11

Real wage growth 07 04 26 ndash04 07

Infl ation and interest rates

Average annual infl ation 09 07 ndash05 24 09

3-month Libor CHF4 12 02 03 07 10

Yield on 10-yr Swiss Federal bonds4 24 18 19 21 25

Population and employment

Population 11 11 11 14 09

Employment in FTE 12 07 ndash01 27 10

Unemployment rate 34 39 37 26 32

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Seco BFS UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Year-end

Residential real estate

The Swiss property market is not overheated overall but vigilance is still warranted

UBS real estate focus January 201110

Homes ndash elevated threat level

Home prices continue to soar This up-

ward trend has not fl attened out as ex-

pected in previous quarters The public is

increasingly worried about a real estate

bubble ndash with some justifi cation Caution

is advised

Meteorological language is o en razor-sharp

Fog is ldquodenserdquo when visibility is less than a

quarter of a mile Gentle rain is a ldquodrizzlerdquo if

the water droplets have diameters between

02 and 05 millimeters The sky is ldquoovercastrdquo

if clouds cover over nine-tenths of it but only

ldquocloudyrdquo if they cover seven-tenths No won-

der economists o en envy meteorology for its

crisp terminology Their fi eld is much fuzzier

For example no economist can identify the

exact criteria that defi ne a real estate bubble

Experts agree that real estate is somehow

heavily overvalued in a bubble but cannot say

how much or how long prices have to in-

crease before a hot market becomes a full-

blown bubble

Real estate bubbles are usually followed by a

rapid dramatic fall in prices Not even this

criterion though provides a tangible defi ni-

tion of a real estate bubble Because bubbles

are not governed by any quantifi able criteria

the public and even experts are far too quick

to label many buoyant markets ldquobubblesrdquo

This has been happening in Switzerland since

early last year a er a recent steep spike in

home prices Letrsquos consider the facts The

Swiss property market began its rise in 1998

Condominium prices have climbed 56 percent

since then while single-family home prices

have gained 37 percent according to the

Wuumlest amp Partner indexes Is this sustainable

To fi nd out economists compare home prices

to three factors rents infl ation and income

Condominiums less aff ordable

Rental apartments are valid substitutes for

houses thanks to Switzerlandrsquos mature body

of landlord-tenant law so excessive discrep-

ancies between the two price trends can indi-

cate market imbalances In the past 12 years

rents rose by roughly the same percentage as

prices for single-family houses The diver-

gence though visible was insignifi cant given

the period of time and diff erences in quality

Rental apartments tend to be older lower-

cost properties while the interior quality of

condominiums has recently improved dramati-

cally As for the infl ation comparison count-

less international studies have shown that

infl ation-adjusted property prices are stagnant

over the long term This was certainly the case

in the Swiss house market between 1970 and

2000

Real estate prices have signifi cantly outpaced

infl ation since 2000 though leaving a worry-

ing gap between the two curves Theoreti-

cally the maximum potential drop in home

prices is the current diff erence between the

curves 33 percent for condominiums and

26 percent for single-family houses Another

well-regarded economic approach by con-

trast links the long-term home price trend to

disposable household income This is called

ldquohousing aff ordabilityrdquo If real estate prices

rise faster than disposable income this ap-

proach says that homes are less aff ordable for

households Demand weakens and prices fall

Average disposable income in Switzerland has

risen by roughly 35 percent since 1998 So

while the aff ordability of single-family houses

in Switzerland has remained more or less

steady during this period it has fallen consid-

erably for condominiums

Large regional discrepancies

This fi nding only applies to Switzerland as a

whole but local real estate markets vary

widely Average annual increases in condo-

Residential real estate

300

250275

175150

200225

100125

98 04 06 080200 1080 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

House prices not overheated overall

Sources BFS Wuumlest amp Partner UBS WMR

House prices compared to rent and disposable income (1980 = 100)

Consumer pricesHouse prices Zurich reg

House prices SwitzerlRental apt Switzerland

House prices Lake GenevaDisposable income

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 11

minium prices since 2000 range from 3 per-

cent for the Berne region to 8 percent for the

Lake Geneva region (Switzerland 42 per-

cent) At these rates real estate prices will

need 24 years to double in the Berne region

but only nine years in the Lake Geneva region

In fact Lake Geneva prices would sextuple in

24 years if growth were to remain un-

changed This simple calculation shows that

Lake Genevarsquos trend is clearly unsustainable

Housing prices are still skyrocketing despite

the general desire for a slowdown In the

third quarter of 2010 transaction prices rose

73 percent year-on-year for condominiums in

Switzerland (Lake Geneva 10 percent Zurich

87 percent Central Switzerland 81 percent)

and 3 percent for single-family houses (Lake

Geneva 57 percent Zurich 41 percent

Central Switzerland 47 percent) Prices failed

to decline in any metropolitan region

Threat level seven

Aggregating the data reveals two important

trends Home prices still largely refl ect the

long-term economic fundamentals for Swit-

zerland as a whole At the same time how-

ever some regions are frothier than the Swiss

average particularly the communities sur-

rounding Lake Geneva Lake Zurich and Lake

Zug and several high-end resort areas south

of the Alps It would be irresponsible to treat

these territories as only isolated trouble spots

for the Swiss real estate market History has

shown that price corrections can trigger un-

predictable domino eff ects across several re-

gions Thus the threat level should be raised

for the entire Swiss real estate market Since

economics (still) has no threat levels for cat-

egorizing the severity of a real estate bubble

we shall use the meteorological Beaufort

scale which classifi es wind speed from 0

(calm) to 12 (hurricane) We would currently

set the metaphorical threat level at

seven ldquohigh windrdquo The description reads

ldquoWhole trees in motion Eff ort needed to

walk against the windrdquo

Residential real estate

1412

810

20

46

ndash4ndash2

09 1187 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

Mortgage loan growth not excessive

Sources SNB BFS UBS WMR

Change in ratio of mortgage volume to populationGDP in percent

Mortgage volume population Mortgage volume GDP (nominal)

UBS real estate focus January 201112

The rental apartment market is stable

and harbors upside potential Prices for

multi-family dwellings have made com-

mercial properties increasingly attractive

to investors

The cooler economy and slightly lower immi-

gration had no notable impact on overall

housing demand The number of apartments

under construction in Switzerland tapered off

marginally during the recession but has not

reached a turning point by any means Low

interest rates also supported construction in

2010 Over 70000 apartments were under

construction at the end of the third quarter of

2010 This is a record and almost 12 percent

higher than in 2009 The number of building

permits indicated that construction activity

will drop slightly in 2011 Given the recent

improvements in the economic environment

no signifi cant increase in vacancy rates is ex-

pected Switzerland has the lowest vacancy

rate in Europe at 09 percent

Scarcity drives rent increases

Low vacancy rates in urban areas have sup-

ported the growth in rents Switzerland as

a whole saw rents increase by an average of

2 percent in the fi rst three quarters of 2010

although performance varied widely between

regions Near Lake Geneva nominal rents

rose nearly 7 percent those in southern Swit-

zerland went up around 31 percent In other

major regions rents only increased by 08 to

16 percent during the same period Rents will

probably increase further given the economic

environment but each region should always

be analyzed separately Despite continued

construction in Zurich demographic trends

should soak up the additional supply A swell-

ing population in the Geneva region is facing

a very scarce supply which is driving up rents

More rural regions such as the Jura and parts

of Central Switzerland will see rents fall

Careful analysis of investments

Yield-seeking investors have buoyed invest-

ment demand Many have focused on rental

apartments and thus have raised prices for

existing multi-family dwellings While the rent-

al apartment market does not appear over-

heated among professional investors we still

recommend carefully analyzing prospective

investments We expect this yearrsquos overall

appreciation return on multi-family dwellings

to remain on par with prior years Since the

economy is expected to improve we assume

rising rents will push up commercial property

valuations This could enable commercial real

estate to outperform multi-family dwellings

in 2012

Rental apartments ndash steady returns

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Residential real estate

Overview of residential properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Residential construction and vacancies 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Net increase in number of homes 45 000 42 000 38 977 44 717 38 255

Residential vacancy rate 10 09 09 10 10

Rental apartments

Asking prices for rental apartments 15 17 35 42 31

Asking prices for new rental apartments ndash15 ndash12 ndash45 15 38

Price index for passing rents 10 11 24 25 17

Mortgage reference interest rate 5 30 28 30 35 ndash

Number of vacant rental apartments 31 000 28 947 26 343 28 138 29 567

Performance on residential direct investment 50 50 53 61 564

Owner-occupied homes

Asking prices for condominiums 30 49 64 41 42

Closing prices for condominiums 25 59 33 47 44

Asking prices for single-family homes 25 47 50 27 30

Closing prices for single-family homes 15 23 04 38 27

Variable mortgage interest rate all banks 5 30 27 27 28 33

Growth in mortgage loans all banks 45 51 49 34 41

Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end

UBS real estate focus January 2011 13

Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory

The taxation of imputed rental values as

income is controversial For years there

have been heated discussions about this

issue Last summer the Federal Council

threw its hat in the ring supporting a

total abolition of the tax in order to sim-

plify the tax code

In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-

sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-

tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The

Federal Council rejected the initiative and now

aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-

ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-

posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-

tions on private interest payments with certain

exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer

be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-

ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-

tion measures

Root of the problem taxing imputed

rental values

Interestingly the endless debate about IRV

taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and

other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-

ed as parts of one indivisible system However

we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-

nomic eff ects by examining each component

separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents

the rent revenues that homeowners could the-

oretically earn if they rented out their home on

the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-

ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-

ants and homeowners on an equal footing on

the premise that homeowners are better off

economically since they live rent-free

This is a specious argument in our view First

tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-

ment risk for their home and no opportunity

costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on

assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-

ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo

risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies

a he y property gains tax on any capital gains

Losses by contrast are fully borne by the

property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor

job of evening the odds between tenants and

homeowners Simply consider how IRV are

determined There are few comparable proper-

ties particularly for single-family homes and

luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-

sible to calculate the market rents that underlie

the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and

sometimes quite complicated assessment

methods to calculate IRV This violates classic

tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be

both simple and transparent

Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other

side of the coin

What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-

tem the deductions for mortgage interest and

maintenance expenses As the law stands the

tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners

to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-

pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-

ment could be more pragmatic about mort-

gage interest There are three main reasons

why deductions for owner-occupied homes

should be eliminated in our opinion as the

Federal Council is essentially proposing to do

First the deductions give households an incen-

tive to take on too much debt While this is not

necessarily bad in itself it is still not something

the government should be expressly encourag-

ing Second allowing income tax deductions

for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-

errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and

thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-

owners can claim larger interest deductions

thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by

contrast bear the full interest rate risk under

current tenant-landlord law through the refer-

ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair

to permit homeowners to claim deductions for

Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated

Source UBS WMR

Impact of home ownership on income tax

Taxable income WITHOUT home ownership

Taxable income WITH home ownership

+ Imputed rental valuendash Maintenance costsndash Mortgage interest

Current system of taxes on home ownership

In focus Residential real estate

Claudio Saputelli

Analyst UBS AG

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201114

The leverage formula is decisive

Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder

whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-

tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve

return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the

current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term

investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-

ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the

mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are

equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-

ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we

strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their

eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio

Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and

other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not

concentrating all your assets in your home

living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a

single cent

Dubious exceptions from interest

deductions

The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its

constitutional mandate to encourage home

ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-

ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up

to a certain franc limit over 10 years This

ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-

efi t high-income households which obviously

misses the point and should therefore be re-

considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-

rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest

income could still off set mortgage interest

against the full amount of their interest in-

come This is also a one-sided policy that large-

ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-

gage interest from their taxable interest and

securities income

The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-

come tax deductions for maintenance costs as

well as private mortgage interest This is a step

in the right direction A er all tenants do not

receive tax breaks on their living expenses

However the Federal Council is making excep-

tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency

and environmental protection measures that

meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very

labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-

ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for

each individual homeowner A more effi cient

method would directly subsidize eco-friendly

energy systems and construction materials

The tax on imputed rental values

should be abolished

The current tax on IRV makes little economic

sense in our view If it were abolished there

would be no need for many deductions and

exceptions which is why we think the govern-

ment should simplify the tax code by com-

pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership

That way homeowners can preserve both their

homes and their sanity around tax time

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 2011 15

Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game

An estimated 520000 withdrawals have

been made from retirement accounts since

1995 The withdrawn capital is expected

to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010

The possible impact on future retirement

benefi ts remains unknown but the risks

should not be ignored

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-

ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August

1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home

ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely

low compared to other countries Raising it is

an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also

policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-

ter when they claimed the low home owner-

ship rate showed too little was being done to

reach the political goal of widespread home

ownership among the population

Swiss home ownership rate remains low

The home ownership rate was 31 percent in

1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-

ership encouragement law began to allow

prospective home buyers to pledge and with-

draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-

manently occupied homes were owner-occu-

pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now

puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent

In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared

to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in

Italy

Why the low ownership rate First condo-

minium ownership was not introduced to

Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss

rental apartment market is relatively effi cient

compared to other countries which dulls the

incentive to own a home So what caused

the spike in the home ownership rate in the

1990s In that decade home prices fell a er

the real estate bubble burst declining sharply

relative to national income Third Switzer-

landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older

ndash the cohort where home ownership is most

common Finally people have been free to

pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-

sets for home purchases since 1995 However

it is not clear whether this statutory option

has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a

bandwagon eff ect

Occupational pensions unsuitable for

encouraging home ownership

The explicit goal of the occupational pension

system ndash established in 1985 to supplement

the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system

(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of

living when the policyholder retires dies or

becomes disabled As fully funded schemes

occupational pensions represent the most

politically attractive pot of money for encour-

aging home ownership Withdrawing pension

assets however does more than reduce

future retirement benefi ts It can also lower

death and disability benefi ts if they depend

on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned

contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals

are a poor vehicle for encouraging home

ownership since they clearly undermine the

main purpose of occupational pensions to

provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in

retirement age

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as

follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves

the purpose of occupational pensions because

living expenses represent one of the largest

costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow

It ignores the need to distribute investment

risks and choose assets that off er security and

an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-

eral Act on Occupational Pensions People

who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-

Thomas Veraguth

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

In focus Residential real estate

350040004500

3000

15001000

20002500

0500

4500040000

3000035000

1500010000

2000025000

05000

0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003

Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR

Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995

Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)

Total annual amount in CHF million

UBS real estate focus January 201116

posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and

considerable risks of the real estate market for

years at a time

Total sum withdrawn remains low

The statistics tell a nuanced story of how

withdrawals are being used to fi nance home

purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-

al pension schemes has nearly doubled since

1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in

2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-

lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs

withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-

resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in

occupational pension schemes over the past

15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-

count for around 05 percent of the total capi-

tal invested in occupational pensions By com-

parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the

single-family homes and condominiums in

Switzerland had an aggregate market value of

124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages

taken out by private households amounted to

566 billion francs in September 2010

The withdrawal statistics also harbor another

surprise the continuity of the amounts with-

drawn The average withdrawal has remained

within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000

Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked

in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-

sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for

680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-

counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred

by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of

annuities and lump-sum payments and 167

percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and

cash payments The 2009 percentages were

roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively

Moderation is key

From an economic perspective certain poten-

tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-

sion to allow consumers to make early pen-

sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily

consumers have exercised considerable self-

restraint as indicated by the data on the

number of withdrawals and total money with-

drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all

members of occupational pension schemes

make withdrawals each year This is in part

due to restrictions inserted in the legislation

by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals

As a result we are cautiously optimistic about

the future of home fi nancing but recommend

pledges over withdrawals

In focus Residential real estate

Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals

Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since

1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to

prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes

make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-

portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are

nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-

ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common

for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However

there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys

by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-

theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-

ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home

Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of

Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-

ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007

For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed

carefully when purchasing a home

UBS real estate focus January 2011 17

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for

greater comfort and higher living stand-

ards Already established abroad this

model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-

zerland

Greater prosperity and a steadily growing

number of small households are driving demand

for new models of living with integrated ser-

vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-

nants and senior citizens The upper middle

class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income

no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free

time on tedious errands or exhausting chores

Even young families are increasingly discovering

the modelrsquos benefi ts

Growing importance of new models

of living

Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-

ing needs Over the years we have seen the

emergence of nursing homes independent liv-

ing and assisted-living communities There is

now an even richer more diverse menu of

options ranging from boarding houses to full-

service living While this latest model may re-

main a niche product for several years we think

demand will stay strong for the foreseeable

future thanks to demographic change growing

interest in support and services and a greater

overall need for higher living standards Of-

ferings need to be aligned with target group

needs and interests though Our experience

with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project

shows that models should be tailored to both

the target group and local conditions

James ndash Full-service Living

The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the

brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-

erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the

fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex

in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009

the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-

sion Fund Assets built a second James complex

in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-

four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-

cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third

James complex is under construction in Winter-

thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-

2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-

ping thanks to a direct connection between the

roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center

restaurants and a parking garage

The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects

todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not

only modern communication technologies (In-

ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-

tion (James is physically on the premises) At a

James complex rent includes a wide array of

concierge services such as receiving guests

accepting packages and purchases or reserving

concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to

mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services

such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet

care plant watering or vacation service These

services are billed separately under a pay-as-

you-go scheme

Components of full-service living

Home concierge services are new to Switzer-

land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-

nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it

mainly designates French superintendents or

caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-

cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-

sive personal services for tenants and visitors as

well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-

tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-

yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-

ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The

James concept embraces this principle When

tenants and visitors enter a James apartment

complex it should be readily apparent that this

is more than just a place to live The James ndash

Full-service Living concept can also adapt to

Patric Caillat

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Possible concept for full-service living

Source UBS GRE Switzerland

The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo

Living as a core service

Basic services included in rent

Agrave la carte services

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 201118

residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time

thanks to its extensive modular service off ering

The program is based on three components

residential use integrated basic services and

additional agrave la carte services

The apartment is the core service and as such

must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in

terms of location infrastructure amenities and

aesthetics The rent must also include several

basic services that are important to the target

groups This diff erentiates James from a regular

apartment complex Residents can also use

many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply

pick the services they need and pay for them

separately which makes the apartment some-

thing like a hotel To be successful the concept

has to combine these elements intelligently

while taking local circumstances into account

Other models on the market

Several models with slightly diff erent approach-

es have been launched in recent years Besides

James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-

set Management other full-service models in-

clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real

Estate Asset Management department and

ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG

Combining services with attractive living can

give a property its own unique character and

ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps

support intelligent real estate marketing How-

ever full-service living can only work if the

services benefi t users operators and owners

alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-

perience with such models it certainly has the

conditions and outlook needed to achieve a

win-win situation

Added value at an attractive price

ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work

users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat

value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to

tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er

all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-

cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go

scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start

Who is the target audience What services do they want While this

might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos

success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are

handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts

will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-

tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo

changing needs

In focus Residential real estate

Commercial real estate and special uses

The market separates the wheat from the chaff

UBS real estate focus January 201120

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in rela-

tively good shape We expect price pres-

sure from tenants to widen the perform-

ance gap between central and peripheral

locations

Offi ce space is the most important sector of

the Swiss commercial real estate market The

commercial property market was estimated

to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end

of 2009 according to Investment Property

Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this

total was offi ce space while retail properties

made up 377 percent and industrial real es-

tate 35 percent

Stable demand factors

Besides being large the offi ce property seg-

ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-

ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the

total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of

Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and

business services represent over 18 percent of

total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-

centage compared to other countries The

Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-

where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-

tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-

tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos

growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still

remained positive Part-time employment is

also becoming more widespread in Switzer-

land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies

are focusing on boosting employee productiv-

ity Future employment growth looks likely to

be moderate as a result

Rising importance of quality

The prospect of slow but positive employment

growth highlights the importance of analyzing

the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates

range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is

moderate compared to other countries and has

recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In

crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found

that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce

completions have been much higher in Ger-

man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-

zerland in recent years In 201112 around

150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the

market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2

in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the

various kinds of offi ce space on the market For

example we are skeptical about the medium-

term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-

erties (poor access to transportation and low

availability of services) on the periphery of cit-

ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-

geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-

ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be

strong expanding the labor market companies

still need to provide attractive workplaces for

their employees Easily accessible central offi ce

locations will gain even more importance Un-

der these pressures the offi ce market should

start to more clearly separate the wheat from

the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce

space is scarce should perform well while

non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle

to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral

locations will be squeezed since they are main-

ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce

functions Through renovation or new con-

structions in contrast downtown locations

should see further appreciation and attractive

returns For this reason we think rents for

high-end offi ce space should rise further

Positive appreciation rate

Despite falling interest rates and government

bond yields initial yields in the institutional

offi ce segment have hardly budged according

to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and

2009 In contrast to many European real estate

markets the appreciation rate is still positively

Commercial real estate and special uses

5

34

0ndash1

12

ndash3ndash2

2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

No drop in employment in Switzerland

Source Experian Business Services June 2010

Employment growth in financial and business services in percent

SwitzerlandEU15

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 2: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 20112

Content

UBS real estate focus 2011

This report has been prepared by UBS AG

Please see the important disclaimer at the

end of the document Past performance is

not an indication of future returns The

market prices provided are closing prices on

the respective principal stock exchange

Publisher

UBS AG Wealth Management Research

(WMR) PO Box CH-8098 Zurich

Editor in chief

Claudio Saputelli

Editors

Anna Marie Focagrave Roy Greenspan

Authors

Daniel Bruumlllmann Patric Caillat Urs Faumls

Gunnar Herm Caesar Lack

Dalibor Maksimovic Stefan R Meyer

Achim Peijan Claudio Saputelli

Niklaus Scheerer Christian Unternaumlhrer

Thomas Veraguth Markus Wagemann

Editorial deadline

3 January 2011

Project management

Caspar Heer

Desktop

Werner Kuonen Margrit Oppliger

Linda Sutter

Translation

24translate St Gallen Switzerland

Pictures

wwwmasterfi lecom

Printer

Druckerei Flawil AG Flawil Switzerland

Languages

English German French and Italian

Contact

ubs-researchubscom

These authors are from units outside Wealth Manage-ment Research These units are not subject to all legal provisions governing the independence of fi nancial research The ldquoDirectives on the Independence of Financial Researchrdquo issued by the Board of Directors of the Swiss Bankers Association (SBA) do not apply

SAP No 83518E-1101

Editorial 3

At a glance 4

Market drivers

Business cycle and income 6

Infl ation and interest rates 7

Population and employment 8

Overview of property market drivers 8

Residential real estate

Homes ndash elevated threat level 10

Rental apartments ndash steady returns 12

Overview of residential properties 12

In focus

Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory 13

Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game 15

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend 17

Commercial real estate and special uses

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff 20

Retail space ndash zero growth expected 22

Overview of commercial properties 22

In focus

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword 23

Hospital real estate in upheaval 25

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation

opportunities abound 27

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground 30

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios 31

Overview of listed real estate 32

In focus

The rise of Swiss real estate equities 33

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds 35

Property investment groups of investment

foundations ndash on the advance 37

Our services

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services 40

Selection of research publications 42

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can subscribe to the print version of UBS real estate focus via their client advisor or

the Printed amp Branded Products Mailbox sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Electronic subscription is also available via the WMR portal on the UBS e-banking platform

UBS real estate focus January 2011 3

Editorial

Daniel Kalt

Claudio Saputelli

Dear reader

ldquoReal estate is at the core of almost every businessrdquo claims US real estate mogul

Donald Trump He is right ndash to an extent It is true that real estate dominates the

workdays of the authors of this new publication UBS real estate focus What really

matters for our business however is our clients They get us involved in a variety of

issues from basic advisory services on property transactions to complex fi nancing

deals for large PPP projects

Besides serving clients UBSrsquos real estate teams also gain insights by sharing ideas

and supporting one another in an internal network Over the years they have ac-

quired a broad and deep base of real estate expertise We share this expertise with

you in UBS real estate focus our new in-depth annual study of the real estate mar-

ket Every year brings new insights In our quest to fi nd client-specifi c real estate

solutions we continue to challenge ourselves explore new disciplines and develop

innovative ideas

UBS real estate focus consists of four chapters The fi rst chapter ldquoMarket driversrdquo

explains the main macroeconomic factors aff ecting the Swiss real estate market

The next two chapters ldquoResidential propertyrdquo and ldquoCommercial property and spe-

cial usesrdquo focus on direct real estate investments Chapter four looks at indirect real

estate investments ndash investment foundations and listed real estate Each chapter

begins with a market overview followed by three focus articles on the latest market

issues This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover

We hope that UBS real estate focus will help you make sound real estate decisions

We have made our analyses more actionable by including boxes with recommenda-

tions in the focus articles We do agree with Donald Trump in one regard ldquoIn order

to build your wealth and improve your business smarts you need to know about

real estaterdquo

We hope you enjoy reading this issue of UBS real estate focus

Claudio Saputelli

Head Real Estate Research

Wealth Management Research

Daniel Kalt

Chief Economist Switzerland

Wealth Management Research

UBS real estate focus January 20114

At a glance

Residential real estate

Home prices continue to soar This up-

ward trend has not fl attened out as ex-

pected in previous quarters The public is

increasingly worried about a real estate

bubble ndash with some justifi cation Caution

is advised Page 10

The rental apartment market is stable and

harbors upside potential Prices for multi-

family dwellings have made commercial

properties increasingly attractive to inves-

tors Page 12

In focus

Imputed rental values ndash

a violation of classic tax theory

The taxation of imputed rental values as

income is controversial For years there

have been heated discussions about this

issue Last summer the Federal Council

threw its hat in the ring supporting a

total abolition of the tax in order to sim-

plify the tax code Page 13

Occupational pension with -

drawals ndash a dangerous game

An estimated 520000 withdrawals have

been made from retirement accounts since

1995 The withdrawn capital is expected

to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010

The possible impact on future retirement

benefi ts remains unknown but the risks

should not be ignored Page 15

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand

for greater comfort and higher living

standards Already established abroad

this model is fast gaining adherents in

Switzerland Page 17

Commercial real estate and

special uses

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in

relatively good shape We expect price

pressure from tenants to widen the per-

formance gap between central and

peripheral locations Page 20

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance increas-

ingly hinges on property quality Page 22

In focus

Public-private partnership ndash more

than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a

long history of collaboration However

public-private partners have to do more

than just work together They also need

to defi ne processes to structure their

relationship allocate risk award con-

tracts and lay down ground rules for

the partnership Page 23

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors Page 25

Global real estate investments ndash

diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy Page 27

Listed real estate and investment

foundations

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits

and partly due to a favorable economic

environment The coming year looks to

be much tougher though Page 30

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn

profi les of funds making them an attrac-

tive choice for mixed portfolios

Page 31

In focus

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors Page 33

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded

real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current

darlings of private and institutional inves-

tors Strong demand has given rise to

new products and improved transpar-

ency More IPOs rights issues and sec-

ondary off erings should keep market

momentum strong Page 35

Property investment groups of

investment foundations ndash

on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market posi-

tions and impressive momentum They

off er attractive product features Pen-

sion fundsrsquo property contributions make

a signifi cant contribution to fueling

growth Page 37

UBS real estate focus January 2011 5

Market drivers

Green lights ahead for key demand drivers

UBS real estate focus January 20116

Market drivers

Business cycle and income

We expect the Swiss economy to grow

more than 2 percent in the next two years

This is well above the historical average

and should boost real estate prices

The Swiss economy has been on the rebound

since mid-2009 Its recession was much mild er

than in most other industrialized western coun-

tries Indeed the Swiss economy is not only

recovering faster than expected it is recovering

faster than the rest of Europe According to the

State Secretariat for Economic Aff airs (Seco) real

gross domestic product (GDP) has expanded an

average of 3 percent in terms of annualized

quarter-on-quarter growth since the recession

ended It even broke above precrisis levels in the

third quarter of 2010

Suffi cient skilled personnel and healthy

balance sheets

The Swiss economy probably owes its surpris-

ingly strong momentum to an agreement with

the European Union on the free movement of

persons Free movement stimulates economic

growth by making it easier for companies to

hire skilled staff The resulting immigration also

supports consumption and construction invest-

ment and directly increases GDP Plus unlike

many other industrialized western countries

Switzerlandrsquos private- and public-sector balance

sheets are in rude health Switzerland is one of

the few countries that did not live beyond its

means in the run-up to the crisis Compared

to other countries Switzerland as a whole

(governments households and companies) has

relatively large holdings of net foreign assets

ndash over 100 percent of GDP Switzerland is also

in an enviable position in terms of public fi -

nances It has a nearly balanced budget and

gross debt ratio of around 40 percent This

positions it to weather the current debt crisis

much better than the highly indebted majority

of industrialized western countries

Following the meteoric upswing of recent

quarters we expect economic growth to con-

tinue at robust albeit lower levels Growth will

be supported by continued immigration a glo-

bal economic upturn and the Swiss National

Bankrsquos very expansive monetary policy Specifi -

cally we expect the economy to grow 23 per-

cent in 2011 and 21 percent in 2012 This is

signifi cantly higher than the average growth

rate of 17 percent over the last 30 years Due

to the strong franc domestic consumption will

probably drive growth instead of exports as in

the precrisis years

Economic growth fuels demand for

real estate

International studies have found that the in-

come elasticity of housing demand is slightly

below 1 In other words a 1 percent increase

in income leads to an increase in housing

spending of slightly less than 1 percent The

expected growth rates which are relatively

high in historical comparison should lead to

a correspondingly high increase in housing

spending While this spending will most likely

fuel the construction of new housing it

should also drive up the prices of existing resi-

dential properties due to the scarcity of land

in Switzerland Prices for commercial real es-

tate should also benefi t from the strong do-

mestic economy

114112

108110

102100

104106

9698

2008 2009 20102005 2006 2007

Strong Swiss economy

Sources Reuters EcoWin UBS WMR

Inflation-adjusted GDP 1st quarter 2005 = 100

SwitzerlandGermany

SpainFrance

United Kingdom USItaly

Caesar Lack

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 7

Market drivers

2008 2009 2010 20112002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Historically low interest rates about to end

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Historical and projected interest rates in percent

4540

3035

1510

2025

005

Money market rates (Libor 3-m)5-year interest rates (swap)

10-year interest rates (swap)

Forecast

Interest rates in Switzerland are extremely

low right now We expect this to change in

2011 The domestic economyrsquos robust

growth expected rise in infl ation and nec-

essary tightening of monetary policy all

point to higher interest rates

Imports account for over one quarter of the

basket of goods used to track consumer price

infl ation ndash petroleum products alone make up

almost 5 percent The strong franc has fueled

import price defl ation in recent months which

has dragged year-on-year infl ation below 05

percent as measured by the national consumer

price index Since we do not expect the franc

to appreciate further we think exchange rates

should gradually lose their defl ationary power

this year Commodity prices have also risen

sharply in recent months together with the

elimination of the exchange rate eff ect this

should drive up import prices during the year

The persistent strength of the domestic econo-

my should also drive up the prices of domestic

goods We expect infl ation to reach almost

1 percent in 2011 and to trend towards

2 percent in 2012

SNB to make interest rate move in fi rst

half-year

UBS Economic Research Switzerland forecasts

higher infl ation than the Swiss National Bank

(SNB) The SNB surprisingly lowered its infl ation

forecast in its monetary policy assessment of

September 2010 and confi rmed its low infl a-

tion forecast in its monetary policy assessment

of December 2010 We expect the SNB to raise

its infl ation forecast again and possibly hike

interest rates 025 percent in the fi rst half of

the year to prevent the domestic economy and

real estate markets from overheating

Swiss Confederation bonds are benefi ting from

their status as an international safe haven

Europersquos debt crisis and loose monetary policy

worldwide have driven investors into Swiss

government bonds and pushed yields down to

levels not seen since 1965

We believe however that investors should

prepare themselves for rising interest rates and

bond yields in the medium term The economic

recovery should continue and loose monetary

policy should tighten up during the year Bond

markets usually preempt monetary tightening

and raise yields in advance Overall higher in-

terest rates will probably be introduced gradu-

ally and we expect interest rates to remain

historically low this year

Financing terms remain attractive

Real estate fi nancing will remain inexpensive

for now which will support real estate prices

The mortgage reference interest rate used to

calculate residential rents will rise marginally

but not until the second half of the year Rent

increases on commercial properties will also be

limited They are generally tied to infl ation

which is currently low

Infl ation and interest rates

Achim Peijan

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

Caesar Lack

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 20118

Market drivers

Population growth has been above aver-

age in recent years fueled mainly by an

exceptionally high infl ux of immigrants

Employment has remained surprisingly

robust since the 2009 recession The

fi nancial crisis has barely le a mark on

the tertiary sector

Switzerlandrsquos population has grown vigor-

ously for the 33rd year in a row Our extra-

polation based on provisional monthly data

provided by the Federal Statistical Offi ce pre-

dicts growth of 11 percent in 2010 Over the

last 40 years Switzerland has only seen pop-

ulation growth exceed 1 percent seven times

ndash including four out of the last four years

The free movement of persons from the EU-

17 and EFTA member states instituted in

June 2007 has obviously le its mark This

fi nding is borne out by a detailed analysis

of net migration While net migration (in-

cluding status changes) accounted for about

50 percent of population growth in the

1980s and 1990s it has recently contributed

80 percent and more (2007 91 percent) The

cantons of Vaud Obwalden Fribourg Ge-

neva Aargau and Zurich likely experienced

above-average growth in 2010 Given the

positive economic prospects overall we ex-

pect the population to grow around 1 per-

cent again in 2011

Employment also growing

Employment has also grown in recent years In

terms of full-time equivalents (FTEs) employ-

ment climbed a record-breaking 84 percent

during the 2005ndash2008 boom period In 2009

however total employment became sluggish for

several quarters The slowdown was largely con-

centrated in manufacturing although employ-

ment numbers went up again slightly in the third

quarter of 2010 This has also brightened senti-

ment in the secondary sector The service sector

by contrast recorded overall growth of 07 per-

cent even in the depths of the 2009 recession

The commercial real estate market is mainly af-

fected by the offi ce and retail sectors In the fi rst

three quarters of 2010 the offi ce sector saw a

negligible 02 percent year-on-year increase in

employment Retail employment also managed

to grow during this period ndash by 12 percent

Thus retail more than compensated for the prior

yearrsquos drop in employment

Housing demand remains strong

Continued population growth should keep hous-

ing demand strong Prices will only so en ndash espe-

cially for privately owned homes ndash if residential

construction steps up In the commercial real

estate market demand for retail space is show-

ing signs of improvement Demand for offi ce

space by contrast will most likely be driven by

space optimization

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

Population and employment

Overview of property market drivers

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Business cycle and income 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Real gross domestic product 23 27 ndash19 19 17

Real construction investment 13 34 30 00 11

Real wage growth 07 04 26 ndash04 07

Infl ation and interest rates

Average annual infl ation 09 07 ndash05 24 09

3-month Libor CHF4 12 02 03 07 10

Yield on 10-yr Swiss Federal bonds4 24 18 19 21 25

Population and employment

Population 11 11 11 14 09

Employment in FTE 12 07 ndash01 27 10

Unemployment rate 34 39 37 26 32

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Seco BFS UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Year-end

Residential real estate

The Swiss property market is not overheated overall but vigilance is still warranted

UBS real estate focus January 201110

Homes ndash elevated threat level

Home prices continue to soar This up-

ward trend has not fl attened out as ex-

pected in previous quarters The public is

increasingly worried about a real estate

bubble ndash with some justifi cation Caution

is advised

Meteorological language is o en razor-sharp

Fog is ldquodenserdquo when visibility is less than a

quarter of a mile Gentle rain is a ldquodrizzlerdquo if

the water droplets have diameters between

02 and 05 millimeters The sky is ldquoovercastrdquo

if clouds cover over nine-tenths of it but only

ldquocloudyrdquo if they cover seven-tenths No won-

der economists o en envy meteorology for its

crisp terminology Their fi eld is much fuzzier

For example no economist can identify the

exact criteria that defi ne a real estate bubble

Experts agree that real estate is somehow

heavily overvalued in a bubble but cannot say

how much or how long prices have to in-

crease before a hot market becomes a full-

blown bubble

Real estate bubbles are usually followed by a

rapid dramatic fall in prices Not even this

criterion though provides a tangible defi ni-

tion of a real estate bubble Because bubbles

are not governed by any quantifi able criteria

the public and even experts are far too quick

to label many buoyant markets ldquobubblesrdquo

This has been happening in Switzerland since

early last year a er a recent steep spike in

home prices Letrsquos consider the facts The

Swiss property market began its rise in 1998

Condominium prices have climbed 56 percent

since then while single-family home prices

have gained 37 percent according to the

Wuumlest amp Partner indexes Is this sustainable

To fi nd out economists compare home prices

to three factors rents infl ation and income

Condominiums less aff ordable

Rental apartments are valid substitutes for

houses thanks to Switzerlandrsquos mature body

of landlord-tenant law so excessive discrep-

ancies between the two price trends can indi-

cate market imbalances In the past 12 years

rents rose by roughly the same percentage as

prices for single-family houses The diver-

gence though visible was insignifi cant given

the period of time and diff erences in quality

Rental apartments tend to be older lower-

cost properties while the interior quality of

condominiums has recently improved dramati-

cally As for the infl ation comparison count-

less international studies have shown that

infl ation-adjusted property prices are stagnant

over the long term This was certainly the case

in the Swiss house market between 1970 and

2000

Real estate prices have signifi cantly outpaced

infl ation since 2000 though leaving a worry-

ing gap between the two curves Theoreti-

cally the maximum potential drop in home

prices is the current diff erence between the

curves 33 percent for condominiums and

26 percent for single-family houses Another

well-regarded economic approach by con-

trast links the long-term home price trend to

disposable household income This is called

ldquohousing aff ordabilityrdquo If real estate prices

rise faster than disposable income this ap-

proach says that homes are less aff ordable for

households Demand weakens and prices fall

Average disposable income in Switzerland has

risen by roughly 35 percent since 1998 So

while the aff ordability of single-family houses

in Switzerland has remained more or less

steady during this period it has fallen consid-

erably for condominiums

Large regional discrepancies

This fi nding only applies to Switzerland as a

whole but local real estate markets vary

widely Average annual increases in condo-

Residential real estate

300

250275

175150

200225

100125

98 04 06 080200 1080 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

House prices not overheated overall

Sources BFS Wuumlest amp Partner UBS WMR

House prices compared to rent and disposable income (1980 = 100)

Consumer pricesHouse prices Zurich reg

House prices SwitzerlRental apt Switzerland

House prices Lake GenevaDisposable income

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 11

minium prices since 2000 range from 3 per-

cent for the Berne region to 8 percent for the

Lake Geneva region (Switzerland 42 per-

cent) At these rates real estate prices will

need 24 years to double in the Berne region

but only nine years in the Lake Geneva region

In fact Lake Geneva prices would sextuple in

24 years if growth were to remain un-

changed This simple calculation shows that

Lake Genevarsquos trend is clearly unsustainable

Housing prices are still skyrocketing despite

the general desire for a slowdown In the

third quarter of 2010 transaction prices rose

73 percent year-on-year for condominiums in

Switzerland (Lake Geneva 10 percent Zurich

87 percent Central Switzerland 81 percent)

and 3 percent for single-family houses (Lake

Geneva 57 percent Zurich 41 percent

Central Switzerland 47 percent) Prices failed

to decline in any metropolitan region

Threat level seven

Aggregating the data reveals two important

trends Home prices still largely refl ect the

long-term economic fundamentals for Swit-

zerland as a whole At the same time how-

ever some regions are frothier than the Swiss

average particularly the communities sur-

rounding Lake Geneva Lake Zurich and Lake

Zug and several high-end resort areas south

of the Alps It would be irresponsible to treat

these territories as only isolated trouble spots

for the Swiss real estate market History has

shown that price corrections can trigger un-

predictable domino eff ects across several re-

gions Thus the threat level should be raised

for the entire Swiss real estate market Since

economics (still) has no threat levels for cat-

egorizing the severity of a real estate bubble

we shall use the meteorological Beaufort

scale which classifi es wind speed from 0

(calm) to 12 (hurricane) We would currently

set the metaphorical threat level at

seven ldquohigh windrdquo The description reads

ldquoWhole trees in motion Eff ort needed to

walk against the windrdquo

Residential real estate

1412

810

20

46

ndash4ndash2

09 1187 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

Mortgage loan growth not excessive

Sources SNB BFS UBS WMR

Change in ratio of mortgage volume to populationGDP in percent

Mortgage volume population Mortgage volume GDP (nominal)

UBS real estate focus January 201112

The rental apartment market is stable

and harbors upside potential Prices for

multi-family dwellings have made com-

mercial properties increasingly attractive

to investors

The cooler economy and slightly lower immi-

gration had no notable impact on overall

housing demand The number of apartments

under construction in Switzerland tapered off

marginally during the recession but has not

reached a turning point by any means Low

interest rates also supported construction in

2010 Over 70000 apartments were under

construction at the end of the third quarter of

2010 This is a record and almost 12 percent

higher than in 2009 The number of building

permits indicated that construction activity

will drop slightly in 2011 Given the recent

improvements in the economic environment

no signifi cant increase in vacancy rates is ex-

pected Switzerland has the lowest vacancy

rate in Europe at 09 percent

Scarcity drives rent increases

Low vacancy rates in urban areas have sup-

ported the growth in rents Switzerland as

a whole saw rents increase by an average of

2 percent in the fi rst three quarters of 2010

although performance varied widely between

regions Near Lake Geneva nominal rents

rose nearly 7 percent those in southern Swit-

zerland went up around 31 percent In other

major regions rents only increased by 08 to

16 percent during the same period Rents will

probably increase further given the economic

environment but each region should always

be analyzed separately Despite continued

construction in Zurich demographic trends

should soak up the additional supply A swell-

ing population in the Geneva region is facing

a very scarce supply which is driving up rents

More rural regions such as the Jura and parts

of Central Switzerland will see rents fall

Careful analysis of investments

Yield-seeking investors have buoyed invest-

ment demand Many have focused on rental

apartments and thus have raised prices for

existing multi-family dwellings While the rent-

al apartment market does not appear over-

heated among professional investors we still

recommend carefully analyzing prospective

investments We expect this yearrsquos overall

appreciation return on multi-family dwellings

to remain on par with prior years Since the

economy is expected to improve we assume

rising rents will push up commercial property

valuations This could enable commercial real

estate to outperform multi-family dwellings

in 2012

Rental apartments ndash steady returns

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Residential real estate

Overview of residential properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Residential construction and vacancies 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Net increase in number of homes 45 000 42 000 38 977 44 717 38 255

Residential vacancy rate 10 09 09 10 10

Rental apartments

Asking prices for rental apartments 15 17 35 42 31

Asking prices for new rental apartments ndash15 ndash12 ndash45 15 38

Price index for passing rents 10 11 24 25 17

Mortgage reference interest rate 5 30 28 30 35 ndash

Number of vacant rental apartments 31 000 28 947 26 343 28 138 29 567

Performance on residential direct investment 50 50 53 61 564

Owner-occupied homes

Asking prices for condominiums 30 49 64 41 42

Closing prices for condominiums 25 59 33 47 44

Asking prices for single-family homes 25 47 50 27 30

Closing prices for single-family homes 15 23 04 38 27

Variable mortgage interest rate all banks 5 30 27 27 28 33

Growth in mortgage loans all banks 45 51 49 34 41

Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end

UBS real estate focus January 2011 13

Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory

The taxation of imputed rental values as

income is controversial For years there

have been heated discussions about this

issue Last summer the Federal Council

threw its hat in the ring supporting a

total abolition of the tax in order to sim-

plify the tax code

In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-

sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-

tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The

Federal Council rejected the initiative and now

aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-

ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-

posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-

tions on private interest payments with certain

exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer

be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-

ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-

tion measures

Root of the problem taxing imputed

rental values

Interestingly the endless debate about IRV

taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and

other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-

ed as parts of one indivisible system However

we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-

nomic eff ects by examining each component

separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents

the rent revenues that homeowners could the-

oretically earn if they rented out their home on

the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-

ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-

ants and homeowners on an equal footing on

the premise that homeowners are better off

economically since they live rent-free

This is a specious argument in our view First

tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-

ment risk for their home and no opportunity

costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on

assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-

ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo

risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies

a he y property gains tax on any capital gains

Losses by contrast are fully borne by the

property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor

job of evening the odds between tenants and

homeowners Simply consider how IRV are

determined There are few comparable proper-

ties particularly for single-family homes and

luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-

sible to calculate the market rents that underlie

the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and

sometimes quite complicated assessment

methods to calculate IRV This violates classic

tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be

both simple and transparent

Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other

side of the coin

What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-

tem the deductions for mortgage interest and

maintenance expenses As the law stands the

tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners

to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-

pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-

ment could be more pragmatic about mort-

gage interest There are three main reasons

why deductions for owner-occupied homes

should be eliminated in our opinion as the

Federal Council is essentially proposing to do

First the deductions give households an incen-

tive to take on too much debt While this is not

necessarily bad in itself it is still not something

the government should be expressly encourag-

ing Second allowing income tax deductions

for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-

errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and

thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-

owners can claim larger interest deductions

thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by

contrast bear the full interest rate risk under

current tenant-landlord law through the refer-

ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair

to permit homeowners to claim deductions for

Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated

Source UBS WMR

Impact of home ownership on income tax

Taxable income WITHOUT home ownership

Taxable income WITH home ownership

+ Imputed rental valuendash Maintenance costsndash Mortgage interest

Current system of taxes on home ownership

In focus Residential real estate

Claudio Saputelli

Analyst UBS AG

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201114

The leverage formula is decisive

Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder

whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-

tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve

return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the

current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term

investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-

ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the

mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are

equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-

ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we

strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their

eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio

Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and

other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not

concentrating all your assets in your home

living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a

single cent

Dubious exceptions from interest

deductions

The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its

constitutional mandate to encourage home

ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-

ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up

to a certain franc limit over 10 years This

ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-

efi t high-income households which obviously

misses the point and should therefore be re-

considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-

rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest

income could still off set mortgage interest

against the full amount of their interest in-

come This is also a one-sided policy that large-

ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-

gage interest from their taxable interest and

securities income

The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-

come tax deductions for maintenance costs as

well as private mortgage interest This is a step

in the right direction A er all tenants do not

receive tax breaks on their living expenses

However the Federal Council is making excep-

tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency

and environmental protection measures that

meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very

labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-

ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for

each individual homeowner A more effi cient

method would directly subsidize eco-friendly

energy systems and construction materials

The tax on imputed rental values

should be abolished

The current tax on IRV makes little economic

sense in our view If it were abolished there

would be no need for many deductions and

exceptions which is why we think the govern-

ment should simplify the tax code by com-

pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership

That way homeowners can preserve both their

homes and their sanity around tax time

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 2011 15

Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game

An estimated 520000 withdrawals have

been made from retirement accounts since

1995 The withdrawn capital is expected

to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010

The possible impact on future retirement

benefi ts remains unknown but the risks

should not be ignored

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-

ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August

1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home

ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely

low compared to other countries Raising it is

an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also

policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-

ter when they claimed the low home owner-

ship rate showed too little was being done to

reach the political goal of widespread home

ownership among the population

Swiss home ownership rate remains low

The home ownership rate was 31 percent in

1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-

ership encouragement law began to allow

prospective home buyers to pledge and with-

draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-

manently occupied homes were owner-occu-

pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now

puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent

In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared

to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in

Italy

Why the low ownership rate First condo-

minium ownership was not introduced to

Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss

rental apartment market is relatively effi cient

compared to other countries which dulls the

incentive to own a home So what caused

the spike in the home ownership rate in the

1990s In that decade home prices fell a er

the real estate bubble burst declining sharply

relative to national income Third Switzer-

landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older

ndash the cohort where home ownership is most

common Finally people have been free to

pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-

sets for home purchases since 1995 However

it is not clear whether this statutory option

has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a

bandwagon eff ect

Occupational pensions unsuitable for

encouraging home ownership

The explicit goal of the occupational pension

system ndash established in 1985 to supplement

the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system

(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of

living when the policyholder retires dies or

becomes disabled As fully funded schemes

occupational pensions represent the most

politically attractive pot of money for encour-

aging home ownership Withdrawing pension

assets however does more than reduce

future retirement benefi ts It can also lower

death and disability benefi ts if they depend

on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned

contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals

are a poor vehicle for encouraging home

ownership since they clearly undermine the

main purpose of occupational pensions to

provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in

retirement age

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as

follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves

the purpose of occupational pensions because

living expenses represent one of the largest

costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow

It ignores the need to distribute investment

risks and choose assets that off er security and

an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-

eral Act on Occupational Pensions People

who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-

Thomas Veraguth

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

In focus Residential real estate

350040004500

3000

15001000

20002500

0500

4500040000

3000035000

1500010000

2000025000

05000

0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003

Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR

Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995

Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)

Total annual amount in CHF million

UBS real estate focus January 201116

posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and

considerable risks of the real estate market for

years at a time

Total sum withdrawn remains low

The statistics tell a nuanced story of how

withdrawals are being used to fi nance home

purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-

al pension schemes has nearly doubled since

1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in

2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-

lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs

withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-

resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in

occupational pension schemes over the past

15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-

count for around 05 percent of the total capi-

tal invested in occupational pensions By com-

parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the

single-family homes and condominiums in

Switzerland had an aggregate market value of

124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages

taken out by private households amounted to

566 billion francs in September 2010

The withdrawal statistics also harbor another

surprise the continuity of the amounts with-

drawn The average withdrawal has remained

within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000

Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked

in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-

sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for

680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-

counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred

by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of

annuities and lump-sum payments and 167

percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and

cash payments The 2009 percentages were

roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively

Moderation is key

From an economic perspective certain poten-

tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-

sion to allow consumers to make early pen-

sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily

consumers have exercised considerable self-

restraint as indicated by the data on the

number of withdrawals and total money with-

drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all

members of occupational pension schemes

make withdrawals each year This is in part

due to restrictions inserted in the legislation

by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals

As a result we are cautiously optimistic about

the future of home fi nancing but recommend

pledges over withdrawals

In focus Residential real estate

Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals

Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since

1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to

prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes

make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-

portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are

nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-

ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common

for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However

there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys

by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-

theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-

ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home

Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of

Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-

ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007

For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed

carefully when purchasing a home

UBS real estate focus January 2011 17

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for

greater comfort and higher living stand-

ards Already established abroad this

model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-

zerland

Greater prosperity and a steadily growing

number of small households are driving demand

for new models of living with integrated ser-

vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-

nants and senior citizens The upper middle

class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income

no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free

time on tedious errands or exhausting chores

Even young families are increasingly discovering

the modelrsquos benefi ts

Growing importance of new models

of living

Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-

ing needs Over the years we have seen the

emergence of nursing homes independent liv-

ing and assisted-living communities There is

now an even richer more diverse menu of

options ranging from boarding houses to full-

service living While this latest model may re-

main a niche product for several years we think

demand will stay strong for the foreseeable

future thanks to demographic change growing

interest in support and services and a greater

overall need for higher living standards Of-

ferings need to be aligned with target group

needs and interests though Our experience

with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project

shows that models should be tailored to both

the target group and local conditions

James ndash Full-service Living

The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the

brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-

erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the

fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex

in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009

the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-

sion Fund Assets built a second James complex

in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-

four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-

cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third

James complex is under construction in Winter-

thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-

2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-

ping thanks to a direct connection between the

roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center

restaurants and a parking garage

The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects

todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not

only modern communication technologies (In-

ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-

tion (James is physically on the premises) At a

James complex rent includes a wide array of

concierge services such as receiving guests

accepting packages and purchases or reserving

concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to

mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services

such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet

care plant watering or vacation service These

services are billed separately under a pay-as-

you-go scheme

Components of full-service living

Home concierge services are new to Switzer-

land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-

nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it

mainly designates French superintendents or

caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-

cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-

sive personal services for tenants and visitors as

well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-

tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-

yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-

ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The

James concept embraces this principle When

tenants and visitors enter a James apartment

complex it should be readily apparent that this

is more than just a place to live The James ndash

Full-service Living concept can also adapt to

Patric Caillat

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Possible concept for full-service living

Source UBS GRE Switzerland

The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo

Living as a core service

Basic services included in rent

Agrave la carte services

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 201118

residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time

thanks to its extensive modular service off ering

The program is based on three components

residential use integrated basic services and

additional agrave la carte services

The apartment is the core service and as such

must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in

terms of location infrastructure amenities and

aesthetics The rent must also include several

basic services that are important to the target

groups This diff erentiates James from a regular

apartment complex Residents can also use

many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply

pick the services they need and pay for them

separately which makes the apartment some-

thing like a hotel To be successful the concept

has to combine these elements intelligently

while taking local circumstances into account

Other models on the market

Several models with slightly diff erent approach-

es have been launched in recent years Besides

James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-

set Management other full-service models in-

clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real

Estate Asset Management department and

ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG

Combining services with attractive living can

give a property its own unique character and

ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps

support intelligent real estate marketing How-

ever full-service living can only work if the

services benefi t users operators and owners

alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-

perience with such models it certainly has the

conditions and outlook needed to achieve a

win-win situation

Added value at an attractive price

ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work

users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat

value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to

tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er

all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-

cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go

scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start

Who is the target audience What services do they want While this

might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos

success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are

handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts

will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-

tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo

changing needs

In focus Residential real estate

Commercial real estate and special uses

The market separates the wheat from the chaff

UBS real estate focus January 201120

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in rela-

tively good shape We expect price pres-

sure from tenants to widen the perform-

ance gap between central and peripheral

locations

Offi ce space is the most important sector of

the Swiss commercial real estate market The

commercial property market was estimated

to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end

of 2009 according to Investment Property

Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this

total was offi ce space while retail properties

made up 377 percent and industrial real es-

tate 35 percent

Stable demand factors

Besides being large the offi ce property seg-

ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-

ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the

total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of

Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and

business services represent over 18 percent of

total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-

centage compared to other countries The

Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-

where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-

tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-

tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos

growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still

remained positive Part-time employment is

also becoming more widespread in Switzer-

land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies

are focusing on boosting employee productiv-

ity Future employment growth looks likely to

be moderate as a result

Rising importance of quality

The prospect of slow but positive employment

growth highlights the importance of analyzing

the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates

range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is

moderate compared to other countries and has

recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In

crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found

that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce

completions have been much higher in Ger-

man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-

zerland in recent years In 201112 around

150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the

market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2

in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the

various kinds of offi ce space on the market For

example we are skeptical about the medium-

term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-

erties (poor access to transportation and low

availability of services) on the periphery of cit-

ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-

geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-

ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be

strong expanding the labor market companies

still need to provide attractive workplaces for

their employees Easily accessible central offi ce

locations will gain even more importance Un-

der these pressures the offi ce market should

start to more clearly separate the wheat from

the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce

space is scarce should perform well while

non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle

to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral

locations will be squeezed since they are main-

ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce

functions Through renovation or new con-

structions in contrast downtown locations

should see further appreciation and attractive

returns For this reason we think rents for

high-end offi ce space should rise further

Positive appreciation rate

Despite falling interest rates and government

bond yields initial yields in the institutional

offi ce segment have hardly budged according

to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and

2009 In contrast to many European real estate

markets the appreciation rate is still positively

Commercial real estate and special uses

5

34

0ndash1

12

ndash3ndash2

2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

No drop in employment in Switzerland

Source Experian Business Services June 2010

Employment growth in financial and business services in percent

SwitzerlandEU15

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 3: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 2011 3

Editorial

Daniel Kalt

Claudio Saputelli

Dear reader

ldquoReal estate is at the core of almost every businessrdquo claims US real estate mogul

Donald Trump He is right ndash to an extent It is true that real estate dominates the

workdays of the authors of this new publication UBS real estate focus What really

matters for our business however is our clients They get us involved in a variety of

issues from basic advisory services on property transactions to complex fi nancing

deals for large PPP projects

Besides serving clients UBSrsquos real estate teams also gain insights by sharing ideas

and supporting one another in an internal network Over the years they have ac-

quired a broad and deep base of real estate expertise We share this expertise with

you in UBS real estate focus our new in-depth annual study of the real estate mar-

ket Every year brings new insights In our quest to fi nd client-specifi c real estate

solutions we continue to challenge ourselves explore new disciplines and develop

innovative ideas

UBS real estate focus consists of four chapters The fi rst chapter ldquoMarket driversrdquo

explains the main macroeconomic factors aff ecting the Swiss real estate market

The next two chapters ldquoResidential propertyrdquo and ldquoCommercial property and spe-

cial usesrdquo focus on direct real estate investments Chapter four looks at indirect real

estate investments ndash investment foundations and listed real estate Each chapter

begins with a market overview followed by three focus articles on the latest market

issues This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover

We hope that UBS real estate focus will help you make sound real estate decisions

We have made our analyses more actionable by including boxes with recommenda-

tions in the focus articles We do agree with Donald Trump in one regard ldquoIn order

to build your wealth and improve your business smarts you need to know about

real estaterdquo

We hope you enjoy reading this issue of UBS real estate focus

Claudio Saputelli

Head Real Estate Research

Wealth Management Research

Daniel Kalt

Chief Economist Switzerland

Wealth Management Research

UBS real estate focus January 20114

At a glance

Residential real estate

Home prices continue to soar This up-

ward trend has not fl attened out as ex-

pected in previous quarters The public is

increasingly worried about a real estate

bubble ndash with some justifi cation Caution

is advised Page 10

The rental apartment market is stable and

harbors upside potential Prices for multi-

family dwellings have made commercial

properties increasingly attractive to inves-

tors Page 12

In focus

Imputed rental values ndash

a violation of classic tax theory

The taxation of imputed rental values as

income is controversial For years there

have been heated discussions about this

issue Last summer the Federal Council

threw its hat in the ring supporting a

total abolition of the tax in order to sim-

plify the tax code Page 13

Occupational pension with -

drawals ndash a dangerous game

An estimated 520000 withdrawals have

been made from retirement accounts since

1995 The withdrawn capital is expected

to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010

The possible impact on future retirement

benefi ts remains unknown but the risks

should not be ignored Page 15

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand

for greater comfort and higher living

standards Already established abroad

this model is fast gaining adherents in

Switzerland Page 17

Commercial real estate and

special uses

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in

relatively good shape We expect price

pressure from tenants to widen the per-

formance gap between central and

peripheral locations Page 20

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance increas-

ingly hinges on property quality Page 22

In focus

Public-private partnership ndash more

than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a

long history of collaboration However

public-private partners have to do more

than just work together They also need

to defi ne processes to structure their

relationship allocate risk award con-

tracts and lay down ground rules for

the partnership Page 23

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors Page 25

Global real estate investments ndash

diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy Page 27

Listed real estate and investment

foundations

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits

and partly due to a favorable economic

environment The coming year looks to

be much tougher though Page 30

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn

profi les of funds making them an attrac-

tive choice for mixed portfolios

Page 31

In focus

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors Page 33

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded

real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current

darlings of private and institutional inves-

tors Strong demand has given rise to

new products and improved transpar-

ency More IPOs rights issues and sec-

ondary off erings should keep market

momentum strong Page 35

Property investment groups of

investment foundations ndash

on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market posi-

tions and impressive momentum They

off er attractive product features Pen-

sion fundsrsquo property contributions make

a signifi cant contribution to fueling

growth Page 37

UBS real estate focus January 2011 5

Market drivers

Green lights ahead for key demand drivers

UBS real estate focus January 20116

Market drivers

Business cycle and income

We expect the Swiss economy to grow

more than 2 percent in the next two years

This is well above the historical average

and should boost real estate prices

The Swiss economy has been on the rebound

since mid-2009 Its recession was much mild er

than in most other industrialized western coun-

tries Indeed the Swiss economy is not only

recovering faster than expected it is recovering

faster than the rest of Europe According to the

State Secretariat for Economic Aff airs (Seco) real

gross domestic product (GDP) has expanded an

average of 3 percent in terms of annualized

quarter-on-quarter growth since the recession

ended It even broke above precrisis levels in the

third quarter of 2010

Suffi cient skilled personnel and healthy

balance sheets

The Swiss economy probably owes its surpris-

ingly strong momentum to an agreement with

the European Union on the free movement of

persons Free movement stimulates economic

growth by making it easier for companies to

hire skilled staff The resulting immigration also

supports consumption and construction invest-

ment and directly increases GDP Plus unlike

many other industrialized western countries

Switzerlandrsquos private- and public-sector balance

sheets are in rude health Switzerland is one of

the few countries that did not live beyond its

means in the run-up to the crisis Compared

to other countries Switzerland as a whole

(governments households and companies) has

relatively large holdings of net foreign assets

ndash over 100 percent of GDP Switzerland is also

in an enviable position in terms of public fi -

nances It has a nearly balanced budget and

gross debt ratio of around 40 percent This

positions it to weather the current debt crisis

much better than the highly indebted majority

of industrialized western countries

Following the meteoric upswing of recent

quarters we expect economic growth to con-

tinue at robust albeit lower levels Growth will

be supported by continued immigration a glo-

bal economic upturn and the Swiss National

Bankrsquos very expansive monetary policy Specifi -

cally we expect the economy to grow 23 per-

cent in 2011 and 21 percent in 2012 This is

signifi cantly higher than the average growth

rate of 17 percent over the last 30 years Due

to the strong franc domestic consumption will

probably drive growth instead of exports as in

the precrisis years

Economic growth fuels demand for

real estate

International studies have found that the in-

come elasticity of housing demand is slightly

below 1 In other words a 1 percent increase

in income leads to an increase in housing

spending of slightly less than 1 percent The

expected growth rates which are relatively

high in historical comparison should lead to

a correspondingly high increase in housing

spending While this spending will most likely

fuel the construction of new housing it

should also drive up the prices of existing resi-

dential properties due to the scarcity of land

in Switzerland Prices for commercial real es-

tate should also benefi t from the strong do-

mestic economy

114112

108110

102100

104106

9698

2008 2009 20102005 2006 2007

Strong Swiss economy

Sources Reuters EcoWin UBS WMR

Inflation-adjusted GDP 1st quarter 2005 = 100

SwitzerlandGermany

SpainFrance

United Kingdom USItaly

Caesar Lack

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 7

Market drivers

2008 2009 2010 20112002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Historically low interest rates about to end

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Historical and projected interest rates in percent

4540

3035

1510

2025

005

Money market rates (Libor 3-m)5-year interest rates (swap)

10-year interest rates (swap)

Forecast

Interest rates in Switzerland are extremely

low right now We expect this to change in

2011 The domestic economyrsquos robust

growth expected rise in infl ation and nec-

essary tightening of monetary policy all

point to higher interest rates

Imports account for over one quarter of the

basket of goods used to track consumer price

infl ation ndash petroleum products alone make up

almost 5 percent The strong franc has fueled

import price defl ation in recent months which

has dragged year-on-year infl ation below 05

percent as measured by the national consumer

price index Since we do not expect the franc

to appreciate further we think exchange rates

should gradually lose their defl ationary power

this year Commodity prices have also risen

sharply in recent months together with the

elimination of the exchange rate eff ect this

should drive up import prices during the year

The persistent strength of the domestic econo-

my should also drive up the prices of domestic

goods We expect infl ation to reach almost

1 percent in 2011 and to trend towards

2 percent in 2012

SNB to make interest rate move in fi rst

half-year

UBS Economic Research Switzerland forecasts

higher infl ation than the Swiss National Bank

(SNB) The SNB surprisingly lowered its infl ation

forecast in its monetary policy assessment of

September 2010 and confi rmed its low infl a-

tion forecast in its monetary policy assessment

of December 2010 We expect the SNB to raise

its infl ation forecast again and possibly hike

interest rates 025 percent in the fi rst half of

the year to prevent the domestic economy and

real estate markets from overheating

Swiss Confederation bonds are benefi ting from

their status as an international safe haven

Europersquos debt crisis and loose monetary policy

worldwide have driven investors into Swiss

government bonds and pushed yields down to

levels not seen since 1965

We believe however that investors should

prepare themselves for rising interest rates and

bond yields in the medium term The economic

recovery should continue and loose monetary

policy should tighten up during the year Bond

markets usually preempt monetary tightening

and raise yields in advance Overall higher in-

terest rates will probably be introduced gradu-

ally and we expect interest rates to remain

historically low this year

Financing terms remain attractive

Real estate fi nancing will remain inexpensive

for now which will support real estate prices

The mortgage reference interest rate used to

calculate residential rents will rise marginally

but not until the second half of the year Rent

increases on commercial properties will also be

limited They are generally tied to infl ation

which is currently low

Infl ation and interest rates

Achim Peijan

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

Caesar Lack

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 20118

Market drivers

Population growth has been above aver-

age in recent years fueled mainly by an

exceptionally high infl ux of immigrants

Employment has remained surprisingly

robust since the 2009 recession The

fi nancial crisis has barely le a mark on

the tertiary sector

Switzerlandrsquos population has grown vigor-

ously for the 33rd year in a row Our extra-

polation based on provisional monthly data

provided by the Federal Statistical Offi ce pre-

dicts growth of 11 percent in 2010 Over the

last 40 years Switzerland has only seen pop-

ulation growth exceed 1 percent seven times

ndash including four out of the last four years

The free movement of persons from the EU-

17 and EFTA member states instituted in

June 2007 has obviously le its mark This

fi nding is borne out by a detailed analysis

of net migration While net migration (in-

cluding status changes) accounted for about

50 percent of population growth in the

1980s and 1990s it has recently contributed

80 percent and more (2007 91 percent) The

cantons of Vaud Obwalden Fribourg Ge-

neva Aargau and Zurich likely experienced

above-average growth in 2010 Given the

positive economic prospects overall we ex-

pect the population to grow around 1 per-

cent again in 2011

Employment also growing

Employment has also grown in recent years In

terms of full-time equivalents (FTEs) employ-

ment climbed a record-breaking 84 percent

during the 2005ndash2008 boom period In 2009

however total employment became sluggish for

several quarters The slowdown was largely con-

centrated in manufacturing although employ-

ment numbers went up again slightly in the third

quarter of 2010 This has also brightened senti-

ment in the secondary sector The service sector

by contrast recorded overall growth of 07 per-

cent even in the depths of the 2009 recession

The commercial real estate market is mainly af-

fected by the offi ce and retail sectors In the fi rst

three quarters of 2010 the offi ce sector saw a

negligible 02 percent year-on-year increase in

employment Retail employment also managed

to grow during this period ndash by 12 percent

Thus retail more than compensated for the prior

yearrsquos drop in employment

Housing demand remains strong

Continued population growth should keep hous-

ing demand strong Prices will only so en ndash espe-

cially for privately owned homes ndash if residential

construction steps up In the commercial real

estate market demand for retail space is show-

ing signs of improvement Demand for offi ce

space by contrast will most likely be driven by

space optimization

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

Population and employment

Overview of property market drivers

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Business cycle and income 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Real gross domestic product 23 27 ndash19 19 17

Real construction investment 13 34 30 00 11

Real wage growth 07 04 26 ndash04 07

Infl ation and interest rates

Average annual infl ation 09 07 ndash05 24 09

3-month Libor CHF4 12 02 03 07 10

Yield on 10-yr Swiss Federal bonds4 24 18 19 21 25

Population and employment

Population 11 11 11 14 09

Employment in FTE 12 07 ndash01 27 10

Unemployment rate 34 39 37 26 32

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Seco BFS UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Year-end

Residential real estate

The Swiss property market is not overheated overall but vigilance is still warranted

UBS real estate focus January 201110

Homes ndash elevated threat level

Home prices continue to soar This up-

ward trend has not fl attened out as ex-

pected in previous quarters The public is

increasingly worried about a real estate

bubble ndash with some justifi cation Caution

is advised

Meteorological language is o en razor-sharp

Fog is ldquodenserdquo when visibility is less than a

quarter of a mile Gentle rain is a ldquodrizzlerdquo if

the water droplets have diameters between

02 and 05 millimeters The sky is ldquoovercastrdquo

if clouds cover over nine-tenths of it but only

ldquocloudyrdquo if they cover seven-tenths No won-

der economists o en envy meteorology for its

crisp terminology Their fi eld is much fuzzier

For example no economist can identify the

exact criteria that defi ne a real estate bubble

Experts agree that real estate is somehow

heavily overvalued in a bubble but cannot say

how much or how long prices have to in-

crease before a hot market becomes a full-

blown bubble

Real estate bubbles are usually followed by a

rapid dramatic fall in prices Not even this

criterion though provides a tangible defi ni-

tion of a real estate bubble Because bubbles

are not governed by any quantifi able criteria

the public and even experts are far too quick

to label many buoyant markets ldquobubblesrdquo

This has been happening in Switzerland since

early last year a er a recent steep spike in

home prices Letrsquos consider the facts The

Swiss property market began its rise in 1998

Condominium prices have climbed 56 percent

since then while single-family home prices

have gained 37 percent according to the

Wuumlest amp Partner indexes Is this sustainable

To fi nd out economists compare home prices

to three factors rents infl ation and income

Condominiums less aff ordable

Rental apartments are valid substitutes for

houses thanks to Switzerlandrsquos mature body

of landlord-tenant law so excessive discrep-

ancies between the two price trends can indi-

cate market imbalances In the past 12 years

rents rose by roughly the same percentage as

prices for single-family houses The diver-

gence though visible was insignifi cant given

the period of time and diff erences in quality

Rental apartments tend to be older lower-

cost properties while the interior quality of

condominiums has recently improved dramati-

cally As for the infl ation comparison count-

less international studies have shown that

infl ation-adjusted property prices are stagnant

over the long term This was certainly the case

in the Swiss house market between 1970 and

2000

Real estate prices have signifi cantly outpaced

infl ation since 2000 though leaving a worry-

ing gap between the two curves Theoreti-

cally the maximum potential drop in home

prices is the current diff erence between the

curves 33 percent for condominiums and

26 percent for single-family houses Another

well-regarded economic approach by con-

trast links the long-term home price trend to

disposable household income This is called

ldquohousing aff ordabilityrdquo If real estate prices

rise faster than disposable income this ap-

proach says that homes are less aff ordable for

households Demand weakens and prices fall

Average disposable income in Switzerland has

risen by roughly 35 percent since 1998 So

while the aff ordability of single-family houses

in Switzerland has remained more or less

steady during this period it has fallen consid-

erably for condominiums

Large regional discrepancies

This fi nding only applies to Switzerland as a

whole but local real estate markets vary

widely Average annual increases in condo-

Residential real estate

300

250275

175150

200225

100125

98 04 06 080200 1080 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

House prices not overheated overall

Sources BFS Wuumlest amp Partner UBS WMR

House prices compared to rent and disposable income (1980 = 100)

Consumer pricesHouse prices Zurich reg

House prices SwitzerlRental apt Switzerland

House prices Lake GenevaDisposable income

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 11

minium prices since 2000 range from 3 per-

cent for the Berne region to 8 percent for the

Lake Geneva region (Switzerland 42 per-

cent) At these rates real estate prices will

need 24 years to double in the Berne region

but only nine years in the Lake Geneva region

In fact Lake Geneva prices would sextuple in

24 years if growth were to remain un-

changed This simple calculation shows that

Lake Genevarsquos trend is clearly unsustainable

Housing prices are still skyrocketing despite

the general desire for a slowdown In the

third quarter of 2010 transaction prices rose

73 percent year-on-year for condominiums in

Switzerland (Lake Geneva 10 percent Zurich

87 percent Central Switzerland 81 percent)

and 3 percent for single-family houses (Lake

Geneva 57 percent Zurich 41 percent

Central Switzerland 47 percent) Prices failed

to decline in any metropolitan region

Threat level seven

Aggregating the data reveals two important

trends Home prices still largely refl ect the

long-term economic fundamentals for Swit-

zerland as a whole At the same time how-

ever some regions are frothier than the Swiss

average particularly the communities sur-

rounding Lake Geneva Lake Zurich and Lake

Zug and several high-end resort areas south

of the Alps It would be irresponsible to treat

these territories as only isolated trouble spots

for the Swiss real estate market History has

shown that price corrections can trigger un-

predictable domino eff ects across several re-

gions Thus the threat level should be raised

for the entire Swiss real estate market Since

economics (still) has no threat levels for cat-

egorizing the severity of a real estate bubble

we shall use the meteorological Beaufort

scale which classifi es wind speed from 0

(calm) to 12 (hurricane) We would currently

set the metaphorical threat level at

seven ldquohigh windrdquo The description reads

ldquoWhole trees in motion Eff ort needed to

walk against the windrdquo

Residential real estate

1412

810

20

46

ndash4ndash2

09 1187 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

Mortgage loan growth not excessive

Sources SNB BFS UBS WMR

Change in ratio of mortgage volume to populationGDP in percent

Mortgage volume population Mortgage volume GDP (nominal)

UBS real estate focus January 201112

The rental apartment market is stable

and harbors upside potential Prices for

multi-family dwellings have made com-

mercial properties increasingly attractive

to investors

The cooler economy and slightly lower immi-

gration had no notable impact on overall

housing demand The number of apartments

under construction in Switzerland tapered off

marginally during the recession but has not

reached a turning point by any means Low

interest rates also supported construction in

2010 Over 70000 apartments were under

construction at the end of the third quarter of

2010 This is a record and almost 12 percent

higher than in 2009 The number of building

permits indicated that construction activity

will drop slightly in 2011 Given the recent

improvements in the economic environment

no signifi cant increase in vacancy rates is ex-

pected Switzerland has the lowest vacancy

rate in Europe at 09 percent

Scarcity drives rent increases

Low vacancy rates in urban areas have sup-

ported the growth in rents Switzerland as

a whole saw rents increase by an average of

2 percent in the fi rst three quarters of 2010

although performance varied widely between

regions Near Lake Geneva nominal rents

rose nearly 7 percent those in southern Swit-

zerland went up around 31 percent In other

major regions rents only increased by 08 to

16 percent during the same period Rents will

probably increase further given the economic

environment but each region should always

be analyzed separately Despite continued

construction in Zurich demographic trends

should soak up the additional supply A swell-

ing population in the Geneva region is facing

a very scarce supply which is driving up rents

More rural regions such as the Jura and parts

of Central Switzerland will see rents fall

Careful analysis of investments

Yield-seeking investors have buoyed invest-

ment demand Many have focused on rental

apartments and thus have raised prices for

existing multi-family dwellings While the rent-

al apartment market does not appear over-

heated among professional investors we still

recommend carefully analyzing prospective

investments We expect this yearrsquos overall

appreciation return on multi-family dwellings

to remain on par with prior years Since the

economy is expected to improve we assume

rising rents will push up commercial property

valuations This could enable commercial real

estate to outperform multi-family dwellings

in 2012

Rental apartments ndash steady returns

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Residential real estate

Overview of residential properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Residential construction and vacancies 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Net increase in number of homes 45 000 42 000 38 977 44 717 38 255

Residential vacancy rate 10 09 09 10 10

Rental apartments

Asking prices for rental apartments 15 17 35 42 31

Asking prices for new rental apartments ndash15 ndash12 ndash45 15 38

Price index for passing rents 10 11 24 25 17

Mortgage reference interest rate 5 30 28 30 35 ndash

Number of vacant rental apartments 31 000 28 947 26 343 28 138 29 567

Performance on residential direct investment 50 50 53 61 564

Owner-occupied homes

Asking prices for condominiums 30 49 64 41 42

Closing prices for condominiums 25 59 33 47 44

Asking prices for single-family homes 25 47 50 27 30

Closing prices for single-family homes 15 23 04 38 27

Variable mortgage interest rate all banks 5 30 27 27 28 33

Growth in mortgage loans all banks 45 51 49 34 41

Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end

UBS real estate focus January 2011 13

Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory

The taxation of imputed rental values as

income is controversial For years there

have been heated discussions about this

issue Last summer the Federal Council

threw its hat in the ring supporting a

total abolition of the tax in order to sim-

plify the tax code

In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-

sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-

tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The

Federal Council rejected the initiative and now

aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-

ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-

posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-

tions on private interest payments with certain

exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer

be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-

ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-

tion measures

Root of the problem taxing imputed

rental values

Interestingly the endless debate about IRV

taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and

other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-

ed as parts of one indivisible system However

we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-

nomic eff ects by examining each component

separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents

the rent revenues that homeowners could the-

oretically earn if they rented out their home on

the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-

ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-

ants and homeowners on an equal footing on

the premise that homeowners are better off

economically since they live rent-free

This is a specious argument in our view First

tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-

ment risk for their home and no opportunity

costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on

assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-

ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo

risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies

a he y property gains tax on any capital gains

Losses by contrast are fully borne by the

property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor

job of evening the odds between tenants and

homeowners Simply consider how IRV are

determined There are few comparable proper-

ties particularly for single-family homes and

luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-

sible to calculate the market rents that underlie

the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and

sometimes quite complicated assessment

methods to calculate IRV This violates classic

tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be

both simple and transparent

Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other

side of the coin

What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-

tem the deductions for mortgage interest and

maintenance expenses As the law stands the

tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners

to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-

pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-

ment could be more pragmatic about mort-

gage interest There are three main reasons

why deductions for owner-occupied homes

should be eliminated in our opinion as the

Federal Council is essentially proposing to do

First the deductions give households an incen-

tive to take on too much debt While this is not

necessarily bad in itself it is still not something

the government should be expressly encourag-

ing Second allowing income tax deductions

for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-

errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and

thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-

owners can claim larger interest deductions

thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by

contrast bear the full interest rate risk under

current tenant-landlord law through the refer-

ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair

to permit homeowners to claim deductions for

Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated

Source UBS WMR

Impact of home ownership on income tax

Taxable income WITHOUT home ownership

Taxable income WITH home ownership

+ Imputed rental valuendash Maintenance costsndash Mortgage interest

Current system of taxes on home ownership

In focus Residential real estate

Claudio Saputelli

Analyst UBS AG

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201114

The leverage formula is decisive

Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder

whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-

tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve

return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the

current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term

investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-

ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the

mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are

equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-

ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we

strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their

eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio

Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and

other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not

concentrating all your assets in your home

living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a

single cent

Dubious exceptions from interest

deductions

The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its

constitutional mandate to encourage home

ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-

ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up

to a certain franc limit over 10 years This

ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-

efi t high-income households which obviously

misses the point and should therefore be re-

considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-

rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest

income could still off set mortgage interest

against the full amount of their interest in-

come This is also a one-sided policy that large-

ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-

gage interest from their taxable interest and

securities income

The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-

come tax deductions for maintenance costs as

well as private mortgage interest This is a step

in the right direction A er all tenants do not

receive tax breaks on their living expenses

However the Federal Council is making excep-

tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency

and environmental protection measures that

meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very

labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-

ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for

each individual homeowner A more effi cient

method would directly subsidize eco-friendly

energy systems and construction materials

The tax on imputed rental values

should be abolished

The current tax on IRV makes little economic

sense in our view If it were abolished there

would be no need for many deductions and

exceptions which is why we think the govern-

ment should simplify the tax code by com-

pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership

That way homeowners can preserve both their

homes and their sanity around tax time

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 2011 15

Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game

An estimated 520000 withdrawals have

been made from retirement accounts since

1995 The withdrawn capital is expected

to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010

The possible impact on future retirement

benefi ts remains unknown but the risks

should not be ignored

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-

ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August

1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home

ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely

low compared to other countries Raising it is

an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also

policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-

ter when they claimed the low home owner-

ship rate showed too little was being done to

reach the political goal of widespread home

ownership among the population

Swiss home ownership rate remains low

The home ownership rate was 31 percent in

1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-

ership encouragement law began to allow

prospective home buyers to pledge and with-

draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-

manently occupied homes were owner-occu-

pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now

puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent

In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared

to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in

Italy

Why the low ownership rate First condo-

minium ownership was not introduced to

Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss

rental apartment market is relatively effi cient

compared to other countries which dulls the

incentive to own a home So what caused

the spike in the home ownership rate in the

1990s In that decade home prices fell a er

the real estate bubble burst declining sharply

relative to national income Third Switzer-

landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older

ndash the cohort where home ownership is most

common Finally people have been free to

pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-

sets for home purchases since 1995 However

it is not clear whether this statutory option

has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a

bandwagon eff ect

Occupational pensions unsuitable for

encouraging home ownership

The explicit goal of the occupational pension

system ndash established in 1985 to supplement

the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system

(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of

living when the policyholder retires dies or

becomes disabled As fully funded schemes

occupational pensions represent the most

politically attractive pot of money for encour-

aging home ownership Withdrawing pension

assets however does more than reduce

future retirement benefi ts It can also lower

death and disability benefi ts if they depend

on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned

contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals

are a poor vehicle for encouraging home

ownership since they clearly undermine the

main purpose of occupational pensions to

provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in

retirement age

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as

follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves

the purpose of occupational pensions because

living expenses represent one of the largest

costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow

It ignores the need to distribute investment

risks and choose assets that off er security and

an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-

eral Act on Occupational Pensions People

who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-

Thomas Veraguth

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

In focus Residential real estate

350040004500

3000

15001000

20002500

0500

4500040000

3000035000

1500010000

2000025000

05000

0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003

Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR

Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995

Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)

Total annual amount in CHF million

UBS real estate focus January 201116

posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and

considerable risks of the real estate market for

years at a time

Total sum withdrawn remains low

The statistics tell a nuanced story of how

withdrawals are being used to fi nance home

purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-

al pension schemes has nearly doubled since

1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in

2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-

lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs

withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-

resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in

occupational pension schemes over the past

15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-

count for around 05 percent of the total capi-

tal invested in occupational pensions By com-

parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the

single-family homes and condominiums in

Switzerland had an aggregate market value of

124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages

taken out by private households amounted to

566 billion francs in September 2010

The withdrawal statistics also harbor another

surprise the continuity of the amounts with-

drawn The average withdrawal has remained

within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000

Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked

in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-

sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for

680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-

counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred

by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of

annuities and lump-sum payments and 167

percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and

cash payments The 2009 percentages were

roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively

Moderation is key

From an economic perspective certain poten-

tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-

sion to allow consumers to make early pen-

sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily

consumers have exercised considerable self-

restraint as indicated by the data on the

number of withdrawals and total money with-

drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all

members of occupational pension schemes

make withdrawals each year This is in part

due to restrictions inserted in the legislation

by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals

As a result we are cautiously optimistic about

the future of home fi nancing but recommend

pledges over withdrawals

In focus Residential real estate

Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals

Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since

1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to

prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes

make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-

portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are

nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-

ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common

for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However

there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys

by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-

theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-

ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home

Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of

Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-

ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007

For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed

carefully when purchasing a home

UBS real estate focus January 2011 17

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for

greater comfort and higher living stand-

ards Already established abroad this

model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-

zerland

Greater prosperity and a steadily growing

number of small households are driving demand

for new models of living with integrated ser-

vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-

nants and senior citizens The upper middle

class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income

no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free

time on tedious errands or exhausting chores

Even young families are increasingly discovering

the modelrsquos benefi ts

Growing importance of new models

of living

Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-

ing needs Over the years we have seen the

emergence of nursing homes independent liv-

ing and assisted-living communities There is

now an even richer more diverse menu of

options ranging from boarding houses to full-

service living While this latest model may re-

main a niche product for several years we think

demand will stay strong for the foreseeable

future thanks to demographic change growing

interest in support and services and a greater

overall need for higher living standards Of-

ferings need to be aligned with target group

needs and interests though Our experience

with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project

shows that models should be tailored to both

the target group and local conditions

James ndash Full-service Living

The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the

brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-

erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the

fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex

in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009

the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-

sion Fund Assets built a second James complex

in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-

four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-

cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third

James complex is under construction in Winter-

thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-

2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-

ping thanks to a direct connection between the

roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center

restaurants and a parking garage

The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects

todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not

only modern communication technologies (In-

ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-

tion (James is physically on the premises) At a

James complex rent includes a wide array of

concierge services such as receiving guests

accepting packages and purchases or reserving

concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to

mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services

such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet

care plant watering or vacation service These

services are billed separately under a pay-as-

you-go scheme

Components of full-service living

Home concierge services are new to Switzer-

land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-

nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it

mainly designates French superintendents or

caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-

cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-

sive personal services for tenants and visitors as

well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-

tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-

yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-

ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The

James concept embraces this principle When

tenants and visitors enter a James apartment

complex it should be readily apparent that this

is more than just a place to live The James ndash

Full-service Living concept can also adapt to

Patric Caillat

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Possible concept for full-service living

Source UBS GRE Switzerland

The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo

Living as a core service

Basic services included in rent

Agrave la carte services

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 201118

residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time

thanks to its extensive modular service off ering

The program is based on three components

residential use integrated basic services and

additional agrave la carte services

The apartment is the core service and as such

must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in

terms of location infrastructure amenities and

aesthetics The rent must also include several

basic services that are important to the target

groups This diff erentiates James from a regular

apartment complex Residents can also use

many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply

pick the services they need and pay for them

separately which makes the apartment some-

thing like a hotel To be successful the concept

has to combine these elements intelligently

while taking local circumstances into account

Other models on the market

Several models with slightly diff erent approach-

es have been launched in recent years Besides

James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-

set Management other full-service models in-

clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real

Estate Asset Management department and

ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG

Combining services with attractive living can

give a property its own unique character and

ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps

support intelligent real estate marketing How-

ever full-service living can only work if the

services benefi t users operators and owners

alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-

perience with such models it certainly has the

conditions and outlook needed to achieve a

win-win situation

Added value at an attractive price

ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work

users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat

value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to

tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er

all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-

cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go

scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start

Who is the target audience What services do they want While this

might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos

success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are

handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts

will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-

tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo

changing needs

In focus Residential real estate

Commercial real estate and special uses

The market separates the wheat from the chaff

UBS real estate focus January 201120

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in rela-

tively good shape We expect price pres-

sure from tenants to widen the perform-

ance gap between central and peripheral

locations

Offi ce space is the most important sector of

the Swiss commercial real estate market The

commercial property market was estimated

to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end

of 2009 according to Investment Property

Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this

total was offi ce space while retail properties

made up 377 percent and industrial real es-

tate 35 percent

Stable demand factors

Besides being large the offi ce property seg-

ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-

ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the

total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of

Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and

business services represent over 18 percent of

total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-

centage compared to other countries The

Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-

where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-

tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-

tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos

growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still

remained positive Part-time employment is

also becoming more widespread in Switzer-

land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies

are focusing on boosting employee productiv-

ity Future employment growth looks likely to

be moderate as a result

Rising importance of quality

The prospect of slow but positive employment

growth highlights the importance of analyzing

the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates

range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is

moderate compared to other countries and has

recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In

crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found

that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce

completions have been much higher in Ger-

man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-

zerland in recent years In 201112 around

150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the

market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2

in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the

various kinds of offi ce space on the market For

example we are skeptical about the medium-

term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-

erties (poor access to transportation and low

availability of services) on the periphery of cit-

ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-

geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-

ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be

strong expanding the labor market companies

still need to provide attractive workplaces for

their employees Easily accessible central offi ce

locations will gain even more importance Un-

der these pressures the offi ce market should

start to more clearly separate the wheat from

the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce

space is scarce should perform well while

non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle

to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral

locations will be squeezed since they are main-

ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce

functions Through renovation or new con-

structions in contrast downtown locations

should see further appreciation and attractive

returns For this reason we think rents for

high-end offi ce space should rise further

Positive appreciation rate

Despite falling interest rates and government

bond yields initial yields in the institutional

offi ce segment have hardly budged according

to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and

2009 In contrast to many European real estate

markets the appreciation rate is still positively

Commercial real estate and special uses

5

34

0ndash1

12

ndash3ndash2

2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

No drop in employment in Switzerland

Source Experian Business Services June 2010

Employment growth in financial and business services in percent

SwitzerlandEU15

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 4: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 20114

At a glance

Residential real estate

Home prices continue to soar This up-

ward trend has not fl attened out as ex-

pected in previous quarters The public is

increasingly worried about a real estate

bubble ndash with some justifi cation Caution

is advised Page 10

The rental apartment market is stable and

harbors upside potential Prices for multi-

family dwellings have made commercial

properties increasingly attractive to inves-

tors Page 12

In focus

Imputed rental values ndash

a violation of classic tax theory

The taxation of imputed rental values as

income is controversial For years there

have been heated discussions about this

issue Last summer the Federal Council

threw its hat in the ring supporting a

total abolition of the tax in order to sim-

plify the tax code Page 13

Occupational pension with -

drawals ndash a dangerous game

An estimated 520000 withdrawals have

been made from retirement accounts since

1995 The withdrawn capital is expected

to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010

The possible impact on future retirement

benefi ts remains unknown but the risks

should not be ignored Page 15

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand

for greater comfort and higher living

standards Already established abroad

this model is fast gaining adherents in

Switzerland Page 17

Commercial real estate and

special uses

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in

relatively good shape We expect price

pressure from tenants to widen the per-

formance gap between central and

peripheral locations Page 20

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance increas-

ingly hinges on property quality Page 22

In focus

Public-private partnership ndash more

than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a

long history of collaboration However

public-private partners have to do more

than just work together They also need

to defi ne processes to structure their

relationship allocate risk award con-

tracts and lay down ground rules for

the partnership Page 23

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors Page 25

Global real estate investments ndash

diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy Page 27

Listed real estate and investment

foundations

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits

and partly due to a favorable economic

environment The coming year looks to

be much tougher though Page 30

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn

profi les of funds making them an attrac-

tive choice for mixed portfolios

Page 31

In focus

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors Page 33

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded

real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current

darlings of private and institutional inves-

tors Strong demand has given rise to

new products and improved transpar-

ency More IPOs rights issues and sec-

ondary off erings should keep market

momentum strong Page 35

Property investment groups of

investment foundations ndash

on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market posi-

tions and impressive momentum They

off er attractive product features Pen-

sion fundsrsquo property contributions make

a signifi cant contribution to fueling

growth Page 37

UBS real estate focus January 2011 5

Market drivers

Green lights ahead for key demand drivers

UBS real estate focus January 20116

Market drivers

Business cycle and income

We expect the Swiss economy to grow

more than 2 percent in the next two years

This is well above the historical average

and should boost real estate prices

The Swiss economy has been on the rebound

since mid-2009 Its recession was much mild er

than in most other industrialized western coun-

tries Indeed the Swiss economy is not only

recovering faster than expected it is recovering

faster than the rest of Europe According to the

State Secretariat for Economic Aff airs (Seco) real

gross domestic product (GDP) has expanded an

average of 3 percent in terms of annualized

quarter-on-quarter growth since the recession

ended It even broke above precrisis levels in the

third quarter of 2010

Suffi cient skilled personnel and healthy

balance sheets

The Swiss economy probably owes its surpris-

ingly strong momentum to an agreement with

the European Union on the free movement of

persons Free movement stimulates economic

growth by making it easier for companies to

hire skilled staff The resulting immigration also

supports consumption and construction invest-

ment and directly increases GDP Plus unlike

many other industrialized western countries

Switzerlandrsquos private- and public-sector balance

sheets are in rude health Switzerland is one of

the few countries that did not live beyond its

means in the run-up to the crisis Compared

to other countries Switzerland as a whole

(governments households and companies) has

relatively large holdings of net foreign assets

ndash over 100 percent of GDP Switzerland is also

in an enviable position in terms of public fi -

nances It has a nearly balanced budget and

gross debt ratio of around 40 percent This

positions it to weather the current debt crisis

much better than the highly indebted majority

of industrialized western countries

Following the meteoric upswing of recent

quarters we expect economic growth to con-

tinue at robust albeit lower levels Growth will

be supported by continued immigration a glo-

bal economic upturn and the Swiss National

Bankrsquos very expansive monetary policy Specifi -

cally we expect the economy to grow 23 per-

cent in 2011 and 21 percent in 2012 This is

signifi cantly higher than the average growth

rate of 17 percent over the last 30 years Due

to the strong franc domestic consumption will

probably drive growth instead of exports as in

the precrisis years

Economic growth fuels demand for

real estate

International studies have found that the in-

come elasticity of housing demand is slightly

below 1 In other words a 1 percent increase

in income leads to an increase in housing

spending of slightly less than 1 percent The

expected growth rates which are relatively

high in historical comparison should lead to

a correspondingly high increase in housing

spending While this spending will most likely

fuel the construction of new housing it

should also drive up the prices of existing resi-

dential properties due to the scarcity of land

in Switzerland Prices for commercial real es-

tate should also benefi t from the strong do-

mestic economy

114112

108110

102100

104106

9698

2008 2009 20102005 2006 2007

Strong Swiss economy

Sources Reuters EcoWin UBS WMR

Inflation-adjusted GDP 1st quarter 2005 = 100

SwitzerlandGermany

SpainFrance

United Kingdom USItaly

Caesar Lack

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 7

Market drivers

2008 2009 2010 20112002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Historically low interest rates about to end

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Historical and projected interest rates in percent

4540

3035

1510

2025

005

Money market rates (Libor 3-m)5-year interest rates (swap)

10-year interest rates (swap)

Forecast

Interest rates in Switzerland are extremely

low right now We expect this to change in

2011 The domestic economyrsquos robust

growth expected rise in infl ation and nec-

essary tightening of monetary policy all

point to higher interest rates

Imports account for over one quarter of the

basket of goods used to track consumer price

infl ation ndash petroleum products alone make up

almost 5 percent The strong franc has fueled

import price defl ation in recent months which

has dragged year-on-year infl ation below 05

percent as measured by the national consumer

price index Since we do not expect the franc

to appreciate further we think exchange rates

should gradually lose their defl ationary power

this year Commodity prices have also risen

sharply in recent months together with the

elimination of the exchange rate eff ect this

should drive up import prices during the year

The persistent strength of the domestic econo-

my should also drive up the prices of domestic

goods We expect infl ation to reach almost

1 percent in 2011 and to trend towards

2 percent in 2012

SNB to make interest rate move in fi rst

half-year

UBS Economic Research Switzerland forecasts

higher infl ation than the Swiss National Bank

(SNB) The SNB surprisingly lowered its infl ation

forecast in its monetary policy assessment of

September 2010 and confi rmed its low infl a-

tion forecast in its monetary policy assessment

of December 2010 We expect the SNB to raise

its infl ation forecast again and possibly hike

interest rates 025 percent in the fi rst half of

the year to prevent the domestic economy and

real estate markets from overheating

Swiss Confederation bonds are benefi ting from

their status as an international safe haven

Europersquos debt crisis and loose monetary policy

worldwide have driven investors into Swiss

government bonds and pushed yields down to

levels not seen since 1965

We believe however that investors should

prepare themselves for rising interest rates and

bond yields in the medium term The economic

recovery should continue and loose monetary

policy should tighten up during the year Bond

markets usually preempt monetary tightening

and raise yields in advance Overall higher in-

terest rates will probably be introduced gradu-

ally and we expect interest rates to remain

historically low this year

Financing terms remain attractive

Real estate fi nancing will remain inexpensive

for now which will support real estate prices

The mortgage reference interest rate used to

calculate residential rents will rise marginally

but not until the second half of the year Rent

increases on commercial properties will also be

limited They are generally tied to infl ation

which is currently low

Infl ation and interest rates

Achim Peijan

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

Caesar Lack

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 20118

Market drivers

Population growth has been above aver-

age in recent years fueled mainly by an

exceptionally high infl ux of immigrants

Employment has remained surprisingly

robust since the 2009 recession The

fi nancial crisis has barely le a mark on

the tertiary sector

Switzerlandrsquos population has grown vigor-

ously for the 33rd year in a row Our extra-

polation based on provisional monthly data

provided by the Federal Statistical Offi ce pre-

dicts growth of 11 percent in 2010 Over the

last 40 years Switzerland has only seen pop-

ulation growth exceed 1 percent seven times

ndash including four out of the last four years

The free movement of persons from the EU-

17 and EFTA member states instituted in

June 2007 has obviously le its mark This

fi nding is borne out by a detailed analysis

of net migration While net migration (in-

cluding status changes) accounted for about

50 percent of population growth in the

1980s and 1990s it has recently contributed

80 percent and more (2007 91 percent) The

cantons of Vaud Obwalden Fribourg Ge-

neva Aargau and Zurich likely experienced

above-average growth in 2010 Given the

positive economic prospects overall we ex-

pect the population to grow around 1 per-

cent again in 2011

Employment also growing

Employment has also grown in recent years In

terms of full-time equivalents (FTEs) employ-

ment climbed a record-breaking 84 percent

during the 2005ndash2008 boom period In 2009

however total employment became sluggish for

several quarters The slowdown was largely con-

centrated in manufacturing although employ-

ment numbers went up again slightly in the third

quarter of 2010 This has also brightened senti-

ment in the secondary sector The service sector

by contrast recorded overall growth of 07 per-

cent even in the depths of the 2009 recession

The commercial real estate market is mainly af-

fected by the offi ce and retail sectors In the fi rst

three quarters of 2010 the offi ce sector saw a

negligible 02 percent year-on-year increase in

employment Retail employment also managed

to grow during this period ndash by 12 percent

Thus retail more than compensated for the prior

yearrsquos drop in employment

Housing demand remains strong

Continued population growth should keep hous-

ing demand strong Prices will only so en ndash espe-

cially for privately owned homes ndash if residential

construction steps up In the commercial real

estate market demand for retail space is show-

ing signs of improvement Demand for offi ce

space by contrast will most likely be driven by

space optimization

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

Population and employment

Overview of property market drivers

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Business cycle and income 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Real gross domestic product 23 27 ndash19 19 17

Real construction investment 13 34 30 00 11

Real wage growth 07 04 26 ndash04 07

Infl ation and interest rates

Average annual infl ation 09 07 ndash05 24 09

3-month Libor CHF4 12 02 03 07 10

Yield on 10-yr Swiss Federal bonds4 24 18 19 21 25

Population and employment

Population 11 11 11 14 09

Employment in FTE 12 07 ndash01 27 10

Unemployment rate 34 39 37 26 32

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Seco BFS UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Year-end

Residential real estate

The Swiss property market is not overheated overall but vigilance is still warranted

UBS real estate focus January 201110

Homes ndash elevated threat level

Home prices continue to soar This up-

ward trend has not fl attened out as ex-

pected in previous quarters The public is

increasingly worried about a real estate

bubble ndash with some justifi cation Caution

is advised

Meteorological language is o en razor-sharp

Fog is ldquodenserdquo when visibility is less than a

quarter of a mile Gentle rain is a ldquodrizzlerdquo if

the water droplets have diameters between

02 and 05 millimeters The sky is ldquoovercastrdquo

if clouds cover over nine-tenths of it but only

ldquocloudyrdquo if they cover seven-tenths No won-

der economists o en envy meteorology for its

crisp terminology Their fi eld is much fuzzier

For example no economist can identify the

exact criteria that defi ne a real estate bubble

Experts agree that real estate is somehow

heavily overvalued in a bubble but cannot say

how much or how long prices have to in-

crease before a hot market becomes a full-

blown bubble

Real estate bubbles are usually followed by a

rapid dramatic fall in prices Not even this

criterion though provides a tangible defi ni-

tion of a real estate bubble Because bubbles

are not governed by any quantifi able criteria

the public and even experts are far too quick

to label many buoyant markets ldquobubblesrdquo

This has been happening in Switzerland since

early last year a er a recent steep spike in

home prices Letrsquos consider the facts The

Swiss property market began its rise in 1998

Condominium prices have climbed 56 percent

since then while single-family home prices

have gained 37 percent according to the

Wuumlest amp Partner indexes Is this sustainable

To fi nd out economists compare home prices

to three factors rents infl ation and income

Condominiums less aff ordable

Rental apartments are valid substitutes for

houses thanks to Switzerlandrsquos mature body

of landlord-tenant law so excessive discrep-

ancies between the two price trends can indi-

cate market imbalances In the past 12 years

rents rose by roughly the same percentage as

prices for single-family houses The diver-

gence though visible was insignifi cant given

the period of time and diff erences in quality

Rental apartments tend to be older lower-

cost properties while the interior quality of

condominiums has recently improved dramati-

cally As for the infl ation comparison count-

less international studies have shown that

infl ation-adjusted property prices are stagnant

over the long term This was certainly the case

in the Swiss house market between 1970 and

2000

Real estate prices have signifi cantly outpaced

infl ation since 2000 though leaving a worry-

ing gap between the two curves Theoreti-

cally the maximum potential drop in home

prices is the current diff erence between the

curves 33 percent for condominiums and

26 percent for single-family houses Another

well-regarded economic approach by con-

trast links the long-term home price trend to

disposable household income This is called

ldquohousing aff ordabilityrdquo If real estate prices

rise faster than disposable income this ap-

proach says that homes are less aff ordable for

households Demand weakens and prices fall

Average disposable income in Switzerland has

risen by roughly 35 percent since 1998 So

while the aff ordability of single-family houses

in Switzerland has remained more or less

steady during this period it has fallen consid-

erably for condominiums

Large regional discrepancies

This fi nding only applies to Switzerland as a

whole but local real estate markets vary

widely Average annual increases in condo-

Residential real estate

300

250275

175150

200225

100125

98 04 06 080200 1080 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

House prices not overheated overall

Sources BFS Wuumlest amp Partner UBS WMR

House prices compared to rent and disposable income (1980 = 100)

Consumer pricesHouse prices Zurich reg

House prices SwitzerlRental apt Switzerland

House prices Lake GenevaDisposable income

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 11

minium prices since 2000 range from 3 per-

cent for the Berne region to 8 percent for the

Lake Geneva region (Switzerland 42 per-

cent) At these rates real estate prices will

need 24 years to double in the Berne region

but only nine years in the Lake Geneva region

In fact Lake Geneva prices would sextuple in

24 years if growth were to remain un-

changed This simple calculation shows that

Lake Genevarsquos trend is clearly unsustainable

Housing prices are still skyrocketing despite

the general desire for a slowdown In the

third quarter of 2010 transaction prices rose

73 percent year-on-year for condominiums in

Switzerland (Lake Geneva 10 percent Zurich

87 percent Central Switzerland 81 percent)

and 3 percent for single-family houses (Lake

Geneva 57 percent Zurich 41 percent

Central Switzerland 47 percent) Prices failed

to decline in any metropolitan region

Threat level seven

Aggregating the data reveals two important

trends Home prices still largely refl ect the

long-term economic fundamentals for Swit-

zerland as a whole At the same time how-

ever some regions are frothier than the Swiss

average particularly the communities sur-

rounding Lake Geneva Lake Zurich and Lake

Zug and several high-end resort areas south

of the Alps It would be irresponsible to treat

these territories as only isolated trouble spots

for the Swiss real estate market History has

shown that price corrections can trigger un-

predictable domino eff ects across several re-

gions Thus the threat level should be raised

for the entire Swiss real estate market Since

economics (still) has no threat levels for cat-

egorizing the severity of a real estate bubble

we shall use the meteorological Beaufort

scale which classifi es wind speed from 0

(calm) to 12 (hurricane) We would currently

set the metaphorical threat level at

seven ldquohigh windrdquo The description reads

ldquoWhole trees in motion Eff ort needed to

walk against the windrdquo

Residential real estate

1412

810

20

46

ndash4ndash2

09 1187 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

Mortgage loan growth not excessive

Sources SNB BFS UBS WMR

Change in ratio of mortgage volume to populationGDP in percent

Mortgage volume population Mortgage volume GDP (nominal)

UBS real estate focus January 201112

The rental apartment market is stable

and harbors upside potential Prices for

multi-family dwellings have made com-

mercial properties increasingly attractive

to investors

The cooler economy and slightly lower immi-

gration had no notable impact on overall

housing demand The number of apartments

under construction in Switzerland tapered off

marginally during the recession but has not

reached a turning point by any means Low

interest rates also supported construction in

2010 Over 70000 apartments were under

construction at the end of the third quarter of

2010 This is a record and almost 12 percent

higher than in 2009 The number of building

permits indicated that construction activity

will drop slightly in 2011 Given the recent

improvements in the economic environment

no signifi cant increase in vacancy rates is ex-

pected Switzerland has the lowest vacancy

rate in Europe at 09 percent

Scarcity drives rent increases

Low vacancy rates in urban areas have sup-

ported the growth in rents Switzerland as

a whole saw rents increase by an average of

2 percent in the fi rst three quarters of 2010

although performance varied widely between

regions Near Lake Geneva nominal rents

rose nearly 7 percent those in southern Swit-

zerland went up around 31 percent In other

major regions rents only increased by 08 to

16 percent during the same period Rents will

probably increase further given the economic

environment but each region should always

be analyzed separately Despite continued

construction in Zurich demographic trends

should soak up the additional supply A swell-

ing population in the Geneva region is facing

a very scarce supply which is driving up rents

More rural regions such as the Jura and parts

of Central Switzerland will see rents fall

Careful analysis of investments

Yield-seeking investors have buoyed invest-

ment demand Many have focused on rental

apartments and thus have raised prices for

existing multi-family dwellings While the rent-

al apartment market does not appear over-

heated among professional investors we still

recommend carefully analyzing prospective

investments We expect this yearrsquos overall

appreciation return on multi-family dwellings

to remain on par with prior years Since the

economy is expected to improve we assume

rising rents will push up commercial property

valuations This could enable commercial real

estate to outperform multi-family dwellings

in 2012

Rental apartments ndash steady returns

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Residential real estate

Overview of residential properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Residential construction and vacancies 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Net increase in number of homes 45 000 42 000 38 977 44 717 38 255

Residential vacancy rate 10 09 09 10 10

Rental apartments

Asking prices for rental apartments 15 17 35 42 31

Asking prices for new rental apartments ndash15 ndash12 ndash45 15 38

Price index for passing rents 10 11 24 25 17

Mortgage reference interest rate 5 30 28 30 35 ndash

Number of vacant rental apartments 31 000 28 947 26 343 28 138 29 567

Performance on residential direct investment 50 50 53 61 564

Owner-occupied homes

Asking prices for condominiums 30 49 64 41 42

Closing prices for condominiums 25 59 33 47 44

Asking prices for single-family homes 25 47 50 27 30

Closing prices for single-family homes 15 23 04 38 27

Variable mortgage interest rate all banks 5 30 27 27 28 33

Growth in mortgage loans all banks 45 51 49 34 41

Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end

UBS real estate focus January 2011 13

Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory

The taxation of imputed rental values as

income is controversial For years there

have been heated discussions about this

issue Last summer the Federal Council

threw its hat in the ring supporting a

total abolition of the tax in order to sim-

plify the tax code

In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-

sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-

tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The

Federal Council rejected the initiative and now

aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-

ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-

posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-

tions on private interest payments with certain

exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer

be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-

ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-

tion measures

Root of the problem taxing imputed

rental values

Interestingly the endless debate about IRV

taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and

other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-

ed as parts of one indivisible system However

we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-

nomic eff ects by examining each component

separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents

the rent revenues that homeowners could the-

oretically earn if they rented out their home on

the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-

ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-

ants and homeowners on an equal footing on

the premise that homeowners are better off

economically since they live rent-free

This is a specious argument in our view First

tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-

ment risk for their home and no opportunity

costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on

assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-

ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo

risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies

a he y property gains tax on any capital gains

Losses by contrast are fully borne by the

property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor

job of evening the odds between tenants and

homeowners Simply consider how IRV are

determined There are few comparable proper-

ties particularly for single-family homes and

luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-

sible to calculate the market rents that underlie

the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and

sometimes quite complicated assessment

methods to calculate IRV This violates classic

tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be

both simple and transparent

Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other

side of the coin

What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-

tem the deductions for mortgage interest and

maintenance expenses As the law stands the

tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners

to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-

pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-

ment could be more pragmatic about mort-

gage interest There are three main reasons

why deductions for owner-occupied homes

should be eliminated in our opinion as the

Federal Council is essentially proposing to do

First the deductions give households an incen-

tive to take on too much debt While this is not

necessarily bad in itself it is still not something

the government should be expressly encourag-

ing Second allowing income tax deductions

for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-

errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and

thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-

owners can claim larger interest deductions

thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by

contrast bear the full interest rate risk under

current tenant-landlord law through the refer-

ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair

to permit homeowners to claim deductions for

Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated

Source UBS WMR

Impact of home ownership on income tax

Taxable income WITHOUT home ownership

Taxable income WITH home ownership

+ Imputed rental valuendash Maintenance costsndash Mortgage interest

Current system of taxes on home ownership

In focus Residential real estate

Claudio Saputelli

Analyst UBS AG

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201114

The leverage formula is decisive

Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder

whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-

tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve

return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the

current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term

investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-

ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the

mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are

equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-

ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we

strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their

eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio

Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and

other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not

concentrating all your assets in your home

living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a

single cent

Dubious exceptions from interest

deductions

The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its

constitutional mandate to encourage home

ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-

ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up

to a certain franc limit over 10 years This

ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-

efi t high-income households which obviously

misses the point and should therefore be re-

considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-

rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest

income could still off set mortgage interest

against the full amount of their interest in-

come This is also a one-sided policy that large-

ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-

gage interest from their taxable interest and

securities income

The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-

come tax deductions for maintenance costs as

well as private mortgage interest This is a step

in the right direction A er all tenants do not

receive tax breaks on their living expenses

However the Federal Council is making excep-

tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency

and environmental protection measures that

meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very

labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-

ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for

each individual homeowner A more effi cient

method would directly subsidize eco-friendly

energy systems and construction materials

The tax on imputed rental values

should be abolished

The current tax on IRV makes little economic

sense in our view If it were abolished there

would be no need for many deductions and

exceptions which is why we think the govern-

ment should simplify the tax code by com-

pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership

That way homeowners can preserve both their

homes and their sanity around tax time

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 2011 15

Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game

An estimated 520000 withdrawals have

been made from retirement accounts since

1995 The withdrawn capital is expected

to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010

The possible impact on future retirement

benefi ts remains unknown but the risks

should not be ignored

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-

ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August

1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home

ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely

low compared to other countries Raising it is

an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also

policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-

ter when they claimed the low home owner-

ship rate showed too little was being done to

reach the political goal of widespread home

ownership among the population

Swiss home ownership rate remains low

The home ownership rate was 31 percent in

1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-

ership encouragement law began to allow

prospective home buyers to pledge and with-

draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-

manently occupied homes were owner-occu-

pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now

puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent

In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared

to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in

Italy

Why the low ownership rate First condo-

minium ownership was not introduced to

Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss

rental apartment market is relatively effi cient

compared to other countries which dulls the

incentive to own a home So what caused

the spike in the home ownership rate in the

1990s In that decade home prices fell a er

the real estate bubble burst declining sharply

relative to national income Third Switzer-

landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older

ndash the cohort where home ownership is most

common Finally people have been free to

pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-

sets for home purchases since 1995 However

it is not clear whether this statutory option

has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a

bandwagon eff ect

Occupational pensions unsuitable for

encouraging home ownership

The explicit goal of the occupational pension

system ndash established in 1985 to supplement

the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system

(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of

living when the policyholder retires dies or

becomes disabled As fully funded schemes

occupational pensions represent the most

politically attractive pot of money for encour-

aging home ownership Withdrawing pension

assets however does more than reduce

future retirement benefi ts It can also lower

death and disability benefi ts if they depend

on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned

contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals

are a poor vehicle for encouraging home

ownership since they clearly undermine the

main purpose of occupational pensions to

provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in

retirement age

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as

follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves

the purpose of occupational pensions because

living expenses represent one of the largest

costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow

It ignores the need to distribute investment

risks and choose assets that off er security and

an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-

eral Act on Occupational Pensions People

who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-

Thomas Veraguth

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

In focus Residential real estate

350040004500

3000

15001000

20002500

0500

4500040000

3000035000

1500010000

2000025000

05000

0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003

Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR

Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995

Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)

Total annual amount in CHF million

UBS real estate focus January 201116

posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and

considerable risks of the real estate market for

years at a time

Total sum withdrawn remains low

The statistics tell a nuanced story of how

withdrawals are being used to fi nance home

purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-

al pension schemes has nearly doubled since

1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in

2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-

lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs

withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-

resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in

occupational pension schemes over the past

15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-

count for around 05 percent of the total capi-

tal invested in occupational pensions By com-

parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the

single-family homes and condominiums in

Switzerland had an aggregate market value of

124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages

taken out by private households amounted to

566 billion francs in September 2010

The withdrawal statistics also harbor another

surprise the continuity of the amounts with-

drawn The average withdrawal has remained

within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000

Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked

in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-

sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for

680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-

counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred

by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of

annuities and lump-sum payments and 167

percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and

cash payments The 2009 percentages were

roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively

Moderation is key

From an economic perspective certain poten-

tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-

sion to allow consumers to make early pen-

sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily

consumers have exercised considerable self-

restraint as indicated by the data on the

number of withdrawals and total money with-

drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all

members of occupational pension schemes

make withdrawals each year This is in part

due to restrictions inserted in the legislation

by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals

As a result we are cautiously optimistic about

the future of home fi nancing but recommend

pledges over withdrawals

In focus Residential real estate

Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals

Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since

1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to

prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes

make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-

portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are

nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-

ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common

for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However

there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys

by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-

theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-

ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home

Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of

Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-

ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007

For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed

carefully when purchasing a home

UBS real estate focus January 2011 17

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for

greater comfort and higher living stand-

ards Already established abroad this

model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-

zerland

Greater prosperity and a steadily growing

number of small households are driving demand

for new models of living with integrated ser-

vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-

nants and senior citizens The upper middle

class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income

no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free

time on tedious errands or exhausting chores

Even young families are increasingly discovering

the modelrsquos benefi ts

Growing importance of new models

of living

Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-

ing needs Over the years we have seen the

emergence of nursing homes independent liv-

ing and assisted-living communities There is

now an even richer more diverse menu of

options ranging from boarding houses to full-

service living While this latest model may re-

main a niche product for several years we think

demand will stay strong for the foreseeable

future thanks to demographic change growing

interest in support and services and a greater

overall need for higher living standards Of-

ferings need to be aligned with target group

needs and interests though Our experience

with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project

shows that models should be tailored to both

the target group and local conditions

James ndash Full-service Living

The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the

brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-

erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the

fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex

in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009

the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-

sion Fund Assets built a second James complex

in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-

four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-

cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third

James complex is under construction in Winter-

thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-

2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-

ping thanks to a direct connection between the

roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center

restaurants and a parking garage

The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects

todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not

only modern communication technologies (In-

ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-

tion (James is physically on the premises) At a

James complex rent includes a wide array of

concierge services such as receiving guests

accepting packages and purchases or reserving

concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to

mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services

such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet

care plant watering or vacation service These

services are billed separately under a pay-as-

you-go scheme

Components of full-service living

Home concierge services are new to Switzer-

land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-

nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it

mainly designates French superintendents or

caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-

cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-

sive personal services for tenants and visitors as

well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-

tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-

yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-

ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The

James concept embraces this principle When

tenants and visitors enter a James apartment

complex it should be readily apparent that this

is more than just a place to live The James ndash

Full-service Living concept can also adapt to

Patric Caillat

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Possible concept for full-service living

Source UBS GRE Switzerland

The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo

Living as a core service

Basic services included in rent

Agrave la carte services

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 201118

residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time

thanks to its extensive modular service off ering

The program is based on three components

residential use integrated basic services and

additional agrave la carte services

The apartment is the core service and as such

must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in

terms of location infrastructure amenities and

aesthetics The rent must also include several

basic services that are important to the target

groups This diff erentiates James from a regular

apartment complex Residents can also use

many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply

pick the services they need and pay for them

separately which makes the apartment some-

thing like a hotel To be successful the concept

has to combine these elements intelligently

while taking local circumstances into account

Other models on the market

Several models with slightly diff erent approach-

es have been launched in recent years Besides

James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-

set Management other full-service models in-

clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real

Estate Asset Management department and

ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG

Combining services with attractive living can

give a property its own unique character and

ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps

support intelligent real estate marketing How-

ever full-service living can only work if the

services benefi t users operators and owners

alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-

perience with such models it certainly has the

conditions and outlook needed to achieve a

win-win situation

Added value at an attractive price

ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work

users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat

value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to

tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er

all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-

cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go

scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start

Who is the target audience What services do they want While this

might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos

success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are

handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts

will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-

tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo

changing needs

In focus Residential real estate

Commercial real estate and special uses

The market separates the wheat from the chaff

UBS real estate focus January 201120

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in rela-

tively good shape We expect price pres-

sure from tenants to widen the perform-

ance gap between central and peripheral

locations

Offi ce space is the most important sector of

the Swiss commercial real estate market The

commercial property market was estimated

to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end

of 2009 according to Investment Property

Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this

total was offi ce space while retail properties

made up 377 percent and industrial real es-

tate 35 percent

Stable demand factors

Besides being large the offi ce property seg-

ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-

ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the

total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of

Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and

business services represent over 18 percent of

total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-

centage compared to other countries The

Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-

where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-

tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-

tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos

growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still

remained positive Part-time employment is

also becoming more widespread in Switzer-

land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies

are focusing on boosting employee productiv-

ity Future employment growth looks likely to

be moderate as a result

Rising importance of quality

The prospect of slow but positive employment

growth highlights the importance of analyzing

the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates

range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is

moderate compared to other countries and has

recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In

crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found

that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce

completions have been much higher in Ger-

man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-

zerland in recent years In 201112 around

150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the

market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2

in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the

various kinds of offi ce space on the market For

example we are skeptical about the medium-

term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-

erties (poor access to transportation and low

availability of services) on the periphery of cit-

ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-

geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-

ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be

strong expanding the labor market companies

still need to provide attractive workplaces for

their employees Easily accessible central offi ce

locations will gain even more importance Un-

der these pressures the offi ce market should

start to more clearly separate the wheat from

the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce

space is scarce should perform well while

non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle

to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral

locations will be squeezed since they are main-

ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce

functions Through renovation or new con-

structions in contrast downtown locations

should see further appreciation and attractive

returns For this reason we think rents for

high-end offi ce space should rise further

Positive appreciation rate

Despite falling interest rates and government

bond yields initial yields in the institutional

offi ce segment have hardly budged according

to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and

2009 In contrast to many European real estate

markets the appreciation rate is still positively

Commercial real estate and special uses

5

34

0ndash1

12

ndash3ndash2

2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

No drop in employment in Switzerland

Source Experian Business Services June 2010

Employment growth in financial and business services in percent

SwitzerlandEU15

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 5: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 2011 5

Market drivers

Green lights ahead for key demand drivers

UBS real estate focus January 20116

Market drivers

Business cycle and income

We expect the Swiss economy to grow

more than 2 percent in the next two years

This is well above the historical average

and should boost real estate prices

The Swiss economy has been on the rebound

since mid-2009 Its recession was much mild er

than in most other industrialized western coun-

tries Indeed the Swiss economy is not only

recovering faster than expected it is recovering

faster than the rest of Europe According to the

State Secretariat for Economic Aff airs (Seco) real

gross domestic product (GDP) has expanded an

average of 3 percent in terms of annualized

quarter-on-quarter growth since the recession

ended It even broke above precrisis levels in the

third quarter of 2010

Suffi cient skilled personnel and healthy

balance sheets

The Swiss economy probably owes its surpris-

ingly strong momentum to an agreement with

the European Union on the free movement of

persons Free movement stimulates economic

growth by making it easier for companies to

hire skilled staff The resulting immigration also

supports consumption and construction invest-

ment and directly increases GDP Plus unlike

many other industrialized western countries

Switzerlandrsquos private- and public-sector balance

sheets are in rude health Switzerland is one of

the few countries that did not live beyond its

means in the run-up to the crisis Compared

to other countries Switzerland as a whole

(governments households and companies) has

relatively large holdings of net foreign assets

ndash over 100 percent of GDP Switzerland is also

in an enviable position in terms of public fi -

nances It has a nearly balanced budget and

gross debt ratio of around 40 percent This

positions it to weather the current debt crisis

much better than the highly indebted majority

of industrialized western countries

Following the meteoric upswing of recent

quarters we expect economic growth to con-

tinue at robust albeit lower levels Growth will

be supported by continued immigration a glo-

bal economic upturn and the Swiss National

Bankrsquos very expansive monetary policy Specifi -

cally we expect the economy to grow 23 per-

cent in 2011 and 21 percent in 2012 This is

signifi cantly higher than the average growth

rate of 17 percent over the last 30 years Due

to the strong franc domestic consumption will

probably drive growth instead of exports as in

the precrisis years

Economic growth fuels demand for

real estate

International studies have found that the in-

come elasticity of housing demand is slightly

below 1 In other words a 1 percent increase

in income leads to an increase in housing

spending of slightly less than 1 percent The

expected growth rates which are relatively

high in historical comparison should lead to

a correspondingly high increase in housing

spending While this spending will most likely

fuel the construction of new housing it

should also drive up the prices of existing resi-

dential properties due to the scarcity of land

in Switzerland Prices for commercial real es-

tate should also benefi t from the strong do-

mestic economy

114112

108110

102100

104106

9698

2008 2009 20102005 2006 2007

Strong Swiss economy

Sources Reuters EcoWin UBS WMR

Inflation-adjusted GDP 1st quarter 2005 = 100

SwitzerlandGermany

SpainFrance

United Kingdom USItaly

Caesar Lack

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 7

Market drivers

2008 2009 2010 20112002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Historically low interest rates about to end

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Historical and projected interest rates in percent

4540

3035

1510

2025

005

Money market rates (Libor 3-m)5-year interest rates (swap)

10-year interest rates (swap)

Forecast

Interest rates in Switzerland are extremely

low right now We expect this to change in

2011 The domestic economyrsquos robust

growth expected rise in infl ation and nec-

essary tightening of monetary policy all

point to higher interest rates

Imports account for over one quarter of the

basket of goods used to track consumer price

infl ation ndash petroleum products alone make up

almost 5 percent The strong franc has fueled

import price defl ation in recent months which

has dragged year-on-year infl ation below 05

percent as measured by the national consumer

price index Since we do not expect the franc

to appreciate further we think exchange rates

should gradually lose their defl ationary power

this year Commodity prices have also risen

sharply in recent months together with the

elimination of the exchange rate eff ect this

should drive up import prices during the year

The persistent strength of the domestic econo-

my should also drive up the prices of domestic

goods We expect infl ation to reach almost

1 percent in 2011 and to trend towards

2 percent in 2012

SNB to make interest rate move in fi rst

half-year

UBS Economic Research Switzerland forecasts

higher infl ation than the Swiss National Bank

(SNB) The SNB surprisingly lowered its infl ation

forecast in its monetary policy assessment of

September 2010 and confi rmed its low infl a-

tion forecast in its monetary policy assessment

of December 2010 We expect the SNB to raise

its infl ation forecast again and possibly hike

interest rates 025 percent in the fi rst half of

the year to prevent the domestic economy and

real estate markets from overheating

Swiss Confederation bonds are benefi ting from

their status as an international safe haven

Europersquos debt crisis and loose monetary policy

worldwide have driven investors into Swiss

government bonds and pushed yields down to

levels not seen since 1965

We believe however that investors should

prepare themselves for rising interest rates and

bond yields in the medium term The economic

recovery should continue and loose monetary

policy should tighten up during the year Bond

markets usually preempt monetary tightening

and raise yields in advance Overall higher in-

terest rates will probably be introduced gradu-

ally and we expect interest rates to remain

historically low this year

Financing terms remain attractive

Real estate fi nancing will remain inexpensive

for now which will support real estate prices

The mortgage reference interest rate used to

calculate residential rents will rise marginally

but not until the second half of the year Rent

increases on commercial properties will also be

limited They are generally tied to infl ation

which is currently low

Infl ation and interest rates

Achim Peijan

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

Caesar Lack

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 20118

Market drivers

Population growth has been above aver-

age in recent years fueled mainly by an

exceptionally high infl ux of immigrants

Employment has remained surprisingly

robust since the 2009 recession The

fi nancial crisis has barely le a mark on

the tertiary sector

Switzerlandrsquos population has grown vigor-

ously for the 33rd year in a row Our extra-

polation based on provisional monthly data

provided by the Federal Statistical Offi ce pre-

dicts growth of 11 percent in 2010 Over the

last 40 years Switzerland has only seen pop-

ulation growth exceed 1 percent seven times

ndash including four out of the last four years

The free movement of persons from the EU-

17 and EFTA member states instituted in

June 2007 has obviously le its mark This

fi nding is borne out by a detailed analysis

of net migration While net migration (in-

cluding status changes) accounted for about

50 percent of population growth in the

1980s and 1990s it has recently contributed

80 percent and more (2007 91 percent) The

cantons of Vaud Obwalden Fribourg Ge-

neva Aargau and Zurich likely experienced

above-average growth in 2010 Given the

positive economic prospects overall we ex-

pect the population to grow around 1 per-

cent again in 2011

Employment also growing

Employment has also grown in recent years In

terms of full-time equivalents (FTEs) employ-

ment climbed a record-breaking 84 percent

during the 2005ndash2008 boom period In 2009

however total employment became sluggish for

several quarters The slowdown was largely con-

centrated in manufacturing although employ-

ment numbers went up again slightly in the third

quarter of 2010 This has also brightened senti-

ment in the secondary sector The service sector

by contrast recorded overall growth of 07 per-

cent even in the depths of the 2009 recession

The commercial real estate market is mainly af-

fected by the offi ce and retail sectors In the fi rst

three quarters of 2010 the offi ce sector saw a

negligible 02 percent year-on-year increase in

employment Retail employment also managed

to grow during this period ndash by 12 percent

Thus retail more than compensated for the prior

yearrsquos drop in employment

Housing demand remains strong

Continued population growth should keep hous-

ing demand strong Prices will only so en ndash espe-

cially for privately owned homes ndash if residential

construction steps up In the commercial real

estate market demand for retail space is show-

ing signs of improvement Demand for offi ce

space by contrast will most likely be driven by

space optimization

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

Population and employment

Overview of property market drivers

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Business cycle and income 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Real gross domestic product 23 27 ndash19 19 17

Real construction investment 13 34 30 00 11

Real wage growth 07 04 26 ndash04 07

Infl ation and interest rates

Average annual infl ation 09 07 ndash05 24 09

3-month Libor CHF4 12 02 03 07 10

Yield on 10-yr Swiss Federal bonds4 24 18 19 21 25

Population and employment

Population 11 11 11 14 09

Employment in FTE 12 07 ndash01 27 10

Unemployment rate 34 39 37 26 32

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Seco BFS UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Year-end

Residential real estate

The Swiss property market is not overheated overall but vigilance is still warranted

UBS real estate focus January 201110

Homes ndash elevated threat level

Home prices continue to soar This up-

ward trend has not fl attened out as ex-

pected in previous quarters The public is

increasingly worried about a real estate

bubble ndash with some justifi cation Caution

is advised

Meteorological language is o en razor-sharp

Fog is ldquodenserdquo when visibility is less than a

quarter of a mile Gentle rain is a ldquodrizzlerdquo if

the water droplets have diameters between

02 and 05 millimeters The sky is ldquoovercastrdquo

if clouds cover over nine-tenths of it but only

ldquocloudyrdquo if they cover seven-tenths No won-

der economists o en envy meteorology for its

crisp terminology Their fi eld is much fuzzier

For example no economist can identify the

exact criteria that defi ne a real estate bubble

Experts agree that real estate is somehow

heavily overvalued in a bubble but cannot say

how much or how long prices have to in-

crease before a hot market becomes a full-

blown bubble

Real estate bubbles are usually followed by a

rapid dramatic fall in prices Not even this

criterion though provides a tangible defi ni-

tion of a real estate bubble Because bubbles

are not governed by any quantifi able criteria

the public and even experts are far too quick

to label many buoyant markets ldquobubblesrdquo

This has been happening in Switzerland since

early last year a er a recent steep spike in

home prices Letrsquos consider the facts The

Swiss property market began its rise in 1998

Condominium prices have climbed 56 percent

since then while single-family home prices

have gained 37 percent according to the

Wuumlest amp Partner indexes Is this sustainable

To fi nd out economists compare home prices

to three factors rents infl ation and income

Condominiums less aff ordable

Rental apartments are valid substitutes for

houses thanks to Switzerlandrsquos mature body

of landlord-tenant law so excessive discrep-

ancies between the two price trends can indi-

cate market imbalances In the past 12 years

rents rose by roughly the same percentage as

prices for single-family houses The diver-

gence though visible was insignifi cant given

the period of time and diff erences in quality

Rental apartments tend to be older lower-

cost properties while the interior quality of

condominiums has recently improved dramati-

cally As for the infl ation comparison count-

less international studies have shown that

infl ation-adjusted property prices are stagnant

over the long term This was certainly the case

in the Swiss house market between 1970 and

2000

Real estate prices have signifi cantly outpaced

infl ation since 2000 though leaving a worry-

ing gap between the two curves Theoreti-

cally the maximum potential drop in home

prices is the current diff erence between the

curves 33 percent for condominiums and

26 percent for single-family houses Another

well-regarded economic approach by con-

trast links the long-term home price trend to

disposable household income This is called

ldquohousing aff ordabilityrdquo If real estate prices

rise faster than disposable income this ap-

proach says that homes are less aff ordable for

households Demand weakens and prices fall

Average disposable income in Switzerland has

risen by roughly 35 percent since 1998 So

while the aff ordability of single-family houses

in Switzerland has remained more or less

steady during this period it has fallen consid-

erably for condominiums

Large regional discrepancies

This fi nding only applies to Switzerland as a

whole but local real estate markets vary

widely Average annual increases in condo-

Residential real estate

300

250275

175150

200225

100125

98 04 06 080200 1080 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

House prices not overheated overall

Sources BFS Wuumlest amp Partner UBS WMR

House prices compared to rent and disposable income (1980 = 100)

Consumer pricesHouse prices Zurich reg

House prices SwitzerlRental apt Switzerland

House prices Lake GenevaDisposable income

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 11

minium prices since 2000 range from 3 per-

cent for the Berne region to 8 percent for the

Lake Geneva region (Switzerland 42 per-

cent) At these rates real estate prices will

need 24 years to double in the Berne region

but only nine years in the Lake Geneva region

In fact Lake Geneva prices would sextuple in

24 years if growth were to remain un-

changed This simple calculation shows that

Lake Genevarsquos trend is clearly unsustainable

Housing prices are still skyrocketing despite

the general desire for a slowdown In the

third quarter of 2010 transaction prices rose

73 percent year-on-year for condominiums in

Switzerland (Lake Geneva 10 percent Zurich

87 percent Central Switzerland 81 percent)

and 3 percent for single-family houses (Lake

Geneva 57 percent Zurich 41 percent

Central Switzerland 47 percent) Prices failed

to decline in any metropolitan region

Threat level seven

Aggregating the data reveals two important

trends Home prices still largely refl ect the

long-term economic fundamentals for Swit-

zerland as a whole At the same time how-

ever some regions are frothier than the Swiss

average particularly the communities sur-

rounding Lake Geneva Lake Zurich and Lake

Zug and several high-end resort areas south

of the Alps It would be irresponsible to treat

these territories as only isolated trouble spots

for the Swiss real estate market History has

shown that price corrections can trigger un-

predictable domino eff ects across several re-

gions Thus the threat level should be raised

for the entire Swiss real estate market Since

economics (still) has no threat levels for cat-

egorizing the severity of a real estate bubble

we shall use the meteorological Beaufort

scale which classifi es wind speed from 0

(calm) to 12 (hurricane) We would currently

set the metaphorical threat level at

seven ldquohigh windrdquo The description reads

ldquoWhole trees in motion Eff ort needed to

walk against the windrdquo

Residential real estate

1412

810

20

46

ndash4ndash2

09 1187 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

Mortgage loan growth not excessive

Sources SNB BFS UBS WMR

Change in ratio of mortgage volume to populationGDP in percent

Mortgage volume population Mortgage volume GDP (nominal)

UBS real estate focus January 201112

The rental apartment market is stable

and harbors upside potential Prices for

multi-family dwellings have made com-

mercial properties increasingly attractive

to investors

The cooler economy and slightly lower immi-

gration had no notable impact on overall

housing demand The number of apartments

under construction in Switzerland tapered off

marginally during the recession but has not

reached a turning point by any means Low

interest rates also supported construction in

2010 Over 70000 apartments were under

construction at the end of the third quarter of

2010 This is a record and almost 12 percent

higher than in 2009 The number of building

permits indicated that construction activity

will drop slightly in 2011 Given the recent

improvements in the economic environment

no signifi cant increase in vacancy rates is ex-

pected Switzerland has the lowest vacancy

rate in Europe at 09 percent

Scarcity drives rent increases

Low vacancy rates in urban areas have sup-

ported the growth in rents Switzerland as

a whole saw rents increase by an average of

2 percent in the fi rst three quarters of 2010

although performance varied widely between

regions Near Lake Geneva nominal rents

rose nearly 7 percent those in southern Swit-

zerland went up around 31 percent In other

major regions rents only increased by 08 to

16 percent during the same period Rents will

probably increase further given the economic

environment but each region should always

be analyzed separately Despite continued

construction in Zurich demographic trends

should soak up the additional supply A swell-

ing population in the Geneva region is facing

a very scarce supply which is driving up rents

More rural regions such as the Jura and parts

of Central Switzerland will see rents fall

Careful analysis of investments

Yield-seeking investors have buoyed invest-

ment demand Many have focused on rental

apartments and thus have raised prices for

existing multi-family dwellings While the rent-

al apartment market does not appear over-

heated among professional investors we still

recommend carefully analyzing prospective

investments We expect this yearrsquos overall

appreciation return on multi-family dwellings

to remain on par with prior years Since the

economy is expected to improve we assume

rising rents will push up commercial property

valuations This could enable commercial real

estate to outperform multi-family dwellings

in 2012

Rental apartments ndash steady returns

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Residential real estate

Overview of residential properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Residential construction and vacancies 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Net increase in number of homes 45 000 42 000 38 977 44 717 38 255

Residential vacancy rate 10 09 09 10 10

Rental apartments

Asking prices for rental apartments 15 17 35 42 31

Asking prices for new rental apartments ndash15 ndash12 ndash45 15 38

Price index for passing rents 10 11 24 25 17

Mortgage reference interest rate 5 30 28 30 35 ndash

Number of vacant rental apartments 31 000 28 947 26 343 28 138 29 567

Performance on residential direct investment 50 50 53 61 564

Owner-occupied homes

Asking prices for condominiums 30 49 64 41 42

Closing prices for condominiums 25 59 33 47 44

Asking prices for single-family homes 25 47 50 27 30

Closing prices for single-family homes 15 23 04 38 27

Variable mortgage interest rate all banks 5 30 27 27 28 33

Growth in mortgage loans all banks 45 51 49 34 41

Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end

UBS real estate focus January 2011 13

Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory

The taxation of imputed rental values as

income is controversial For years there

have been heated discussions about this

issue Last summer the Federal Council

threw its hat in the ring supporting a

total abolition of the tax in order to sim-

plify the tax code

In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-

sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-

tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The

Federal Council rejected the initiative and now

aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-

ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-

posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-

tions on private interest payments with certain

exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer

be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-

ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-

tion measures

Root of the problem taxing imputed

rental values

Interestingly the endless debate about IRV

taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and

other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-

ed as parts of one indivisible system However

we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-

nomic eff ects by examining each component

separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents

the rent revenues that homeowners could the-

oretically earn if they rented out their home on

the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-

ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-

ants and homeowners on an equal footing on

the premise that homeowners are better off

economically since they live rent-free

This is a specious argument in our view First

tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-

ment risk for their home and no opportunity

costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on

assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-

ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo

risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies

a he y property gains tax on any capital gains

Losses by contrast are fully borne by the

property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor

job of evening the odds between tenants and

homeowners Simply consider how IRV are

determined There are few comparable proper-

ties particularly for single-family homes and

luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-

sible to calculate the market rents that underlie

the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and

sometimes quite complicated assessment

methods to calculate IRV This violates classic

tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be

both simple and transparent

Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other

side of the coin

What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-

tem the deductions for mortgage interest and

maintenance expenses As the law stands the

tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners

to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-

pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-

ment could be more pragmatic about mort-

gage interest There are three main reasons

why deductions for owner-occupied homes

should be eliminated in our opinion as the

Federal Council is essentially proposing to do

First the deductions give households an incen-

tive to take on too much debt While this is not

necessarily bad in itself it is still not something

the government should be expressly encourag-

ing Second allowing income tax deductions

for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-

errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and

thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-

owners can claim larger interest deductions

thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by

contrast bear the full interest rate risk under

current tenant-landlord law through the refer-

ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair

to permit homeowners to claim deductions for

Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated

Source UBS WMR

Impact of home ownership on income tax

Taxable income WITHOUT home ownership

Taxable income WITH home ownership

+ Imputed rental valuendash Maintenance costsndash Mortgage interest

Current system of taxes on home ownership

In focus Residential real estate

Claudio Saputelli

Analyst UBS AG

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201114

The leverage formula is decisive

Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder

whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-

tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve

return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the

current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term

investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-

ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the

mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are

equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-

ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we

strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their

eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio

Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and

other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not

concentrating all your assets in your home

living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a

single cent

Dubious exceptions from interest

deductions

The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its

constitutional mandate to encourage home

ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-

ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up

to a certain franc limit over 10 years This

ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-

efi t high-income households which obviously

misses the point and should therefore be re-

considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-

rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest

income could still off set mortgage interest

against the full amount of their interest in-

come This is also a one-sided policy that large-

ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-

gage interest from their taxable interest and

securities income

The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-

come tax deductions for maintenance costs as

well as private mortgage interest This is a step

in the right direction A er all tenants do not

receive tax breaks on their living expenses

However the Federal Council is making excep-

tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency

and environmental protection measures that

meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very

labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-

ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for

each individual homeowner A more effi cient

method would directly subsidize eco-friendly

energy systems and construction materials

The tax on imputed rental values

should be abolished

The current tax on IRV makes little economic

sense in our view If it were abolished there

would be no need for many deductions and

exceptions which is why we think the govern-

ment should simplify the tax code by com-

pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership

That way homeowners can preserve both their

homes and their sanity around tax time

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 2011 15

Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game

An estimated 520000 withdrawals have

been made from retirement accounts since

1995 The withdrawn capital is expected

to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010

The possible impact on future retirement

benefi ts remains unknown but the risks

should not be ignored

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-

ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August

1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home

ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely

low compared to other countries Raising it is

an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also

policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-

ter when they claimed the low home owner-

ship rate showed too little was being done to

reach the political goal of widespread home

ownership among the population

Swiss home ownership rate remains low

The home ownership rate was 31 percent in

1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-

ership encouragement law began to allow

prospective home buyers to pledge and with-

draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-

manently occupied homes were owner-occu-

pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now

puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent

In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared

to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in

Italy

Why the low ownership rate First condo-

minium ownership was not introduced to

Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss

rental apartment market is relatively effi cient

compared to other countries which dulls the

incentive to own a home So what caused

the spike in the home ownership rate in the

1990s In that decade home prices fell a er

the real estate bubble burst declining sharply

relative to national income Third Switzer-

landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older

ndash the cohort where home ownership is most

common Finally people have been free to

pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-

sets for home purchases since 1995 However

it is not clear whether this statutory option

has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a

bandwagon eff ect

Occupational pensions unsuitable for

encouraging home ownership

The explicit goal of the occupational pension

system ndash established in 1985 to supplement

the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system

(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of

living when the policyholder retires dies or

becomes disabled As fully funded schemes

occupational pensions represent the most

politically attractive pot of money for encour-

aging home ownership Withdrawing pension

assets however does more than reduce

future retirement benefi ts It can also lower

death and disability benefi ts if they depend

on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned

contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals

are a poor vehicle for encouraging home

ownership since they clearly undermine the

main purpose of occupational pensions to

provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in

retirement age

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as

follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves

the purpose of occupational pensions because

living expenses represent one of the largest

costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow

It ignores the need to distribute investment

risks and choose assets that off er security and

an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-

eral Act on Occupational Pensions People

who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-

Thomas Veraguth

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

In focus Residential real estate

350040004500

3000

15001000

20002500

0500

4500040000

3000035000

1500010000

2000025000

05000

0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003

Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR

Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995

Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)

Total annual amount in CHF million

UBS real estate focus January 201116

posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and

considerable risks of the real estate market for

years at a time

Total sum withdrawn remains low

The statistics tell a nuanced story of how

withdrawals are being used to fi nance home

purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-

al pension schemes has nearly doubled since

1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in

2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-

lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs

withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-

resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in

occupational pension schemes over the past

15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-

count for around 05 percent of the total capi-

tal invested in occupational pensions By com-

parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the

single-family homes and condominiums in

Switzerland had an aggregate market value of

124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages

taken out by private households amounted to

566 billion francs in September 2010

The withdrawal statistics also harbor another

surprise the continuity of the amounts with-

drawn The average withdrawal has remained

within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000

Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked

in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-

sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for

680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-

counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred

by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of

annuities and lump-sum payments and 167

percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and

cash payments The 2009 percentages were

roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively

Moderation is key

From an economic perspective certain poten-

tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-

sion to allow consumers to make early pen-

sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily

consumers have exercised considerable self-

restraint as indicated by the data on the

number of withdrawals and total money with-

drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all

members of occupational pension schemes

make withdrawals each year This is in part

due to restrictions inserted in the legislation

by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals

As a result we are cautiously optimistic about

the future of home fi nancing but recommend

pledges over withdrawals

In focus Residential real estate

Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals

Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since

1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to

prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes

make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-

portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are

nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-

ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common

for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However

there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys

by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-

theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-

ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home

Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of

Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-

ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007

For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed

carefully when purchasing a home

UBS real estate focus January 2011 17

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for

greater comfort and higher living stand-

ards Already established abroad this

model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-

zerland

Greater prosperity and a steadily growing

number of small households are driving demand

for new models of living with integrated ser-

vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-

nants and senior citizens The upper middle

class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income

no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free

time on tedious errands or exhausting chores

Even young families are increasingly discovering

the modelrsquos benefi ts

Growing importance of new models

of living

Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-

ing needs Over the years we have seen the

emergence of nursing homes independent liv-

ing and assisted-living communities There is

now an even richer more diverse menu of

options ranging from boarding houses to full-

service living While this latest model may re-

main a niche product for several years we think

demand will stay strong for the foreseeable

future thanks to demographic change growing

interest in support and services and a greater

overall need for higher living standards Of-

ferings need to be aligned with target group

needs and interests though Our experience

with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project

shows that models should be tailored to both

the target group and local conditions

James ndash Full-service Living

The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the

brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-

erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the

fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex

in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009

the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-

sion Fund Assets built a second James complex

in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-

four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-

cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third

James complex is under construction in Winter-

thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-

2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-

ping thanks to a direct connection between the

roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center

restaurants and a parking garage

The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects

todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not

only modern communication technologies (In-

ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-

tion (James is physically on the premises) At a

James complex rent includes a wide array of

concierge services such as receiving guests

accepting packages and purchases or reserving

concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to

mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services

such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet

care plant watering or vacation service These

services are billed separately under a pay-as-

you-go scheme

Components of full-service living

Home concierge services are new to Switzer-

land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-

nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it

mainly designates French superintendents or

caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-

cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-

sive personal services for tenants and visitors as

well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-

tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-

yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-

ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The

James concept embraces this principle When

tenants and visitors enter a James apartment

complex it should be readily apparent that this

is more than just a place to live The James ndash

Full-service Living concept can also adapt to

Patric Caillat

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Possible concept for full-service living

Source UBS GRE Switzerland

The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo

Living as a core service

Basic services included in rent

Agrave la carte services

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 201118

residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time

thanks to its extensive modular service off ering

The program is based on three components

residential use integrated basic services and

additional agrave la carte services

The apartment is the core service and as such

must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in

terms of location infrastructure amenities and

aesthetics The rent must also include several

basic services that are important to the target

groups This diff erentiates James from a regular

apartment complex Residents can also use

many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply

pick the services they need and pay for them

separately which makes the apartment some-

thing like a hotel To be successful the concept

has to combine these elements intelligently

while taking local circumstances into account

Other models on the market

Several models with slightly diff erent approach-

es have been launched in recent years Besides

James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-

set Management other full-service models in-

clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real

Estate Asset Management department and

ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG

Combining services with attractive living can

give a property its own unique character and

ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps

support intelligent real estate marketing How-

ever full-service living can only work if the

services benefi t users operators and owners

alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-

perience with such models it certainly has the

conditions and outlook needed to achieve a

win-win situation

Added value at an attractive price

ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work

users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat

value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to

tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er

all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-

cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go

scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start

Who is the target audience What services do they want While this

might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos

success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are

handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts

will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-

tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo

changing needs

In focus Residential real estate

Commercial real estate and special uses

The market separates the wheat from the chaff

UBS real estate focus January 201120

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in rela-

tively good shape We expect price pres-

sure from tenants to widen the perform-

ance gap between central and peripheral

locations

Offi ce space is the most important sector of

the Swiss commercial real estate market The

commercial property market was estimated

to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end

of 2009 according to Investment Property

Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this

total was offi ce space while retail properties

made up 377 percent and industrial real es-

tate 35 percent

Stable demand factors

Besides being large the offi ce property seg-

ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-

ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the

total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of

Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and

business services represent over 18 percent of

total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-

centage compared to other countries The

Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-

where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-

tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-

tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos

growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still

remained positive Part-time employment is

also becoming more widespread in Switzer-

land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies

are focusing on boosting employee productiv-

ity Future employment growth looks likely to

be moderate as a result

Rising importance of quality

The prospect of slow but positive employment

growth highlights the importance of analyzing

the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates

range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is

moderate compared to other countries and has

recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In

crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found

that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce

completions have been much higher in Ger-

man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-

zerland in recent years In 201112 around

150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the

market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2

in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the

various kinds of offi ce space on the market For

example we are skeptical about the medium-

term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-

erties (poor access to transportation and low

availability of services) on the periphery of cit-

ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-

geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-

ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be

strong expanding the labor market companies

still need to provide attractive workplaces for

their employees Easily accessible central offi ce

locations will gain even more importance Un-

der these pressures the offi ce market should

start to more clearly separate the wheat from

the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce

space is scarce should perform well while

non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle

to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral

locations will be squeezed since they are main-

ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce

functions Through renovation or new con-

structions in contrast downtown locations

should see further appreciation and attractive

returns For this reason we think rents for

high-end offi ce space should rise further

Positive appreciation rate

Despite falling interest rates and government

bond yields initial yields in the institutional

offi ce segment have hardly budged according

to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and

2009 In contrast to many European real estate

markets the appreciation rate is still positively

Commercial real estate and special uses

5

34

0ndash1

12

ndash3ndash2

2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

No drop in employment in Switzerland

Source Experian Business Services June 2010

Employment growth in financial and business services in percent

SwitzerlandEU15

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 6: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 20116

Market drivers

Business cycle and income

We expect the Swiss economy to grow

more than 2 percent in the next two years

This is well above the historical average

and should boost real estate prices

The Swiss economy has been on the rebound

since mid-2009 Its recession was much mild er

than in most other industrialized western coun-

tries Indeed the Swiss economy is not only

recovering faster than expected it is recovering

faster than the rest of Europe According to the

State Secretariat for Economic Aff airs (Seco) real

gross domestic product (GDP) has expanded an

average of 3 percent in terms of annualized

quarter-on-quarter growth since the recession

ended It even broke above precrisis levels in the

third quarter of 2010

Suffi cient skilled personnel and healthy

balance sheets

The Swiss economy probably owes its surpris-

ingly strong momentum to an agreement with

the European Union on the free movement of

persons Free movement stimulates economic

growth by making it easier for companies to

hire skilled staff The resulting immigration also

supports consumption and construction invest-

ment and directly increases GDP Plus unlike

many other industrialized western countries

Switzerlandrsquos private- and public-sector balance

sheets are in rude health Switzerland is one of

the few countries that did not live beyond its

means in the run-up to the crisis Compared

to other countries Switzerland as a whole

(governments households and companies) has

relatively large holdings of net foreign assets

ndash over 100 percent of GDP Switzerland is also

in an enviable position in terms of public fi -

nances It has a nearly balanced budget and

gross debt ratio of around 40 percent This

positions it to weather the current debt crisis

much better than the highly indebted majority

of industrialized western countries

Following the meteoric upswing of recent

quarters we expect economic growth to con-

tinue at robust albeit lower levels Growth will

be supported by continued immigration a glo-

bal economic upturn and the Swiss National

Bankrsquos very expansive monetary policy Specifi -

cally we expect the economy to grow 23 per-

cent in 2011 and 21 percent in 2012 This is

signifi cantly higher than the average growth

rate of 17 percent over the last 30 years Due

to the strong franc domestic consumption will

probably drive growth instead of exports as in

the precrisis years

Economic growth fuels demand for

real estate

International studies have found that the in-

come elasticity of housing demand is slightly

below 1 In other words a 1 percent increase

in income leads to an increase in housing

spending of slightly less than 1 percent The

expected growth rates which are relatively

high in historical comparison should lead to

a correspondingly high increase in housing

spending While this spending will most likely

fuel the construction of new housing it

should also drive up the prices of existing resi-

dential properties due to the scarcity of land

in Switzerland Prices for commercial real es-

tate should also benefi t from the strong do-

mestic economy

114112

108110

102100

104106

9698

2008 2009 20102005 2006 2007

Strong Swiss economy

Sources Reuters EcoWin UBS WMR

Inflation-adjusted GDP 1st quarter 2005 = 100

SwitzerlandGermany

SpainFrance

United Kingdom USItaly

Caesar Lack

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 7

Market drivers

2008 2009 2010 20112002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Historically low interest rates about to end

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Historical and projected interest rates in percent

4540

3035

1510

2025

005

Money market rates (Libor 3-m)5-year interest rates (swap)

10-year interest rates (swap)

Forecast

Interest rates in Switzerland are extremely

low right now We expect this to change in

2011 The domestic economyrsquos robust

growth expected rise in infl ation and nec-

essary tightening of monetary policy all

point to higher interest rates

Imports account for over one quarter of the

basket of goods used to track consumer price

infl ation ndash petroleum products alone make up

almost 5 percent The strong franc has fueled

import price defl ation in recent months which

has dragged year-on-year infl ation below 05

percent as measured by the national consumer

price index Since we do not expect the franc

to appreciate further we think exchange rates

should gradually lose their defl ationary power

this year Commodity prices have also risen

sharply in recent months together with the

elimination of the exchange rate eff ect this

should drive up import prices during the year

The persistent strength of the domestic econo-

my should also drive up the prices of domestic

goods We expect infl ation to reach almost

1 percent in 2011 and to trend towards

2 percent in 2012

SNB to make interest rate move in fi rst

half-year

UBS Economic Research Switzerland forecasts

higher infl ation than the Swiss National Bank

(SNB) The SNB surprisingly lowered its infl ation

forecast in its monetary policy assessment of

September 2010 and confi rmed its low infl a-

tion forecast in its monetary policy assessment

of December 2010 We expect the SNB to raise

its infl ation forecast again and possibly hike

interest rates 025 percent in the fi rst half of

the year to prevent the domestic economy and

real estate markets from overheating

Swiss Confederation bonds are benefi ting from

their status as an international safe haven

Europersquos debt crisis and loose monetary policy

worldwide have driven investors into Swiss

government bonds and pushed yields down to

levels not seen since 1965

We believe however that investors should

prepare themselves for rising interest rates and

bond yields in the medium term The economic

recovery should continue and loose monetary

policy should tighten up during the year Bond

markets usually preempt monetary tightening

and raise yields in advance Overall higher in-

terest rates will probably be introduced gradu-

ally and we expect interest rates to remain

historically low this year

Financing terms remain attractive

Real estate fi nancing will remain inexpensive

for now which will support real estate prices

The mortgage reference interest rate used to

calculate residential rents will rise marginally

but not until the second half of the year Rent

increases on commercial properties will also be

limited They are generally tied to infl ation

which is currently low

Infl ation and interest rates

Achim Peijan

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

Caesar Lack

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 20118

Market drivers

Population growth has been above aver-

age in recent years fueled mainly by an

exceptionally high infl ux of immigrants

Employment has remained surprisingly

robust since the 2009 recession The

fi nancial crisis has barely le a mark on

the tertiary sector

Switzerlandrsquos population has grown vigor-

ously for the 33rd year in a row Our extra-

polation based on provisional monthly data

provided by the Federal Statistical Offi ce pre-

dicts growth of 11 percent in 2010 Over the

last 40 years Switzerland has only seen pop-

ulation growth exceed 1 percent seven times

ndash including four out of the last four years

The free movement of persons from the EU-

17 and EFTA member states instituted in

June 2007 has obviously le its mark This

fi nding is borne out by a detailed analysis

of net migration While net migration (in-

cluding status changes) accounted for about

50 percent of population growth in the

1980s and 1990s it has recently contributed

80 percent and more (2007 91 percent) The

cantons of Vaud Obwalden Fribourg Ge-

neva Aargau and Zurich likely experienced

above-average growth in 2010 Given the

positive economic prospects overall we ex-

pect the population to grow around 1 per-

cent again in 2011

Employment also growing

Employment has also grown in recent years In

terms of full-time equivalents (FTEs) employ-

ment climbed a record-breaking 84 percent

during the 2005ndash2008 boom period In 2009

however total employment became sluggish for

several quarters The slowdown was largely con-

centrated in manufacturing although employ-

ment numbers went up again slightly in the third

quarter of 2010 This has also brightened senti-

ment in the secondary sector The service sector

by contrast recorded overall growth of 07 per-

cent even in the depths of the 2009 recession

The commercial real estate market is mainly af-

fected by the offi ce and retail sectors In the fi rst

three quarters of 2010 the offi ce sector saw a

negligible 02 percent year-on-year increase in

employment Retail employment also managed

to grow during this period ndash by 12 percent

Thus retail more than compensated for the prior

yearrsquos drop in employment

Housing demand remains strong

Continued population growth should keep hous-

ing demand strong Prices will only so en ndash espe-

cially for privately owned homes ndash if residential

construction steps up In the commercial real

estate market demand for retail space is show-

ing signs of improvement Demand for offi ce

space by contrast will most likely be driven by

space optimization

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

Population and employment

Overview of property market drivers

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Business cycle and income 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Real gross domestic product 23 27 ndash19 19 17

Real construction investment 13 34 30 00 11

Real wage growth 07 04 26 ndash04 07

Infl ation and interest rates

Average annual infl ation 09 07 ndash05 24 09

3-month Libor CHF4 12 02 03 07 10

Yield on 10-yr Swiss Federal bonds4 24 18 19 21 25

Population and employment

Population 11 11 11 14 09

Employment in FTE 12 07 ndash01 27 10

Unemployment rate 34 39 37 26 32

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Seco BFS UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Year-end

Residential real estate

The Swiss property market is not overheated overall but vigilance is still warranted

UBS real estate focus January 201110

Homes ndash elevated threat level

Home prices continue to soar This up-

ward trend has not fl attened out as ex-

pected in previous quarters The public is

increasingly worried about a real estate

bubble ndash with some justifi cation Caution

is advised

Meteorological language is o en razor-sharp

Fog is ldquodenserdquo when visibility is less than a

quarter of a mile Gentle rain is a ldquodrizzlerdquo if

the water droplets have diameters between

02 and 05 millimeters The sky is ldquoovercastrdquo

if clouds cover over nine-tenths of it but only

ldquocloudyrdquo if they cover seven-tenths No won-

der economists o en envy meteorology for its

crisp terminology Their fi eld is much fuzzier

For example no economist can identify the

exact criteria that defi ne a real estate bubble

Experts agree that real estate is somehow

heavily overvalued in a bubble but cannot say

how much or how long prices have to in-

crease before a hot market becomes a full-

blown bubble

Real estate bubbles are usually followed by a

rapid dramatic fall in prices Not even this

criterion though provides a tangible defi ni-

tion of a real estate bubble Because bubbles

are not governed by any quantifi able criteria

the public and even experts are far too quick

to label many buoyant markets ldquobubblesrdquo

This has been happening in Switzerland since

early last year a er a recent steep spike in

home prices Letrsquos consider the facts The

Swiss property market began its rise in 1998

Condominium prices have climbed 56 percent

since then while single-family home prices

have gained 37 percent according to the

Wuumlest amp Partner indexes Is this sustainable

To fi nd out economists compare home prices

to three factors rents infl ation and income

Condominiums less aff ordable

Rental apartments are valid substitutes for

houses thanks to Switzerlandrsquos mature body

of landlord-tenant law so excessive discrep-

ancies between the two price trends can indi-

cate market imbalances In the past 12 years

rents rose by roughly the same percentage as

prices for single-family houses The diver-

gence though visible was insignifi cant given

the period of time and diff erences in quality

Rental apartments tend to be older lower-

cost properties while the interior quality of

condominiums has recently improved dramati-

cally As for the infl ation comparison count-

less international studies have shown that

infl ation-adjusted property prices are stagnant

over the long term This was certainly the case

in the Swiss house market between 1970 and

2000

Real estate prices have signifi cantly outpaced

infl ation since 2000 though leaving a worry-

ing gap between the two curves Theoreti-

cally the maximum potential drop in home

prices is the current diff erence between the

curves 33 percent for condominiums and

26 percent for single-family houses Another

well-regarded economic approach by con-

trast links the long-term home price trend to

disposable household income This is called

ldquohousing aff ordabilityrdquo If real estate prices

rise faster than disposable income this ap-

proach says that homes are less aff ordable for

households Demand weakens and prices fall

Average disposable income in Switzerland has

risen by roughly 35 percent since 1998 So

while the aff ordability of single-family houses

in Switzerland has remained more or less

steady during this period it has fallen consid-

erably for condominiums

Large regional discrepancies

This fi nding only applies to Switzerland as a

whole but local real estate markets vary

widely Average annual increases in condo-

Residential real estate

300

250275

175150

200225

100125

98 04 06 080200 1080 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

House prices not overheated overall

Sources BFS Wuumlest amp Partner UBS WMR

House prices compared to rent and disposable income (1980 = 100)

Consumer pricesHouse prices Zurich reg

House prices SwitzerlRental apt Switzerland

House prices Lake GenevaDisposable income

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 11

minium prices since 2000 range from 3 per-

cent for the Berne region to 8 percent for the

Lake Geneva region (Switzerland 42 per-

cent) At these rates real estate prices will

need 24 years to double in the Berne region

but only nine years in the Lake Geneva region

In fact Lake Geneva prices would sextuple in

24 years if growth were to remain un-

changed This simple calculation shows that

Lake Genevarsquos trend is clearly unsustainable

Housing prices are still skyrocketing despite

the general desire for a slowdown In the

third quarter of 2010 transaction prices rose

73 percent year-on-year for condominiums in

Switzerland (Lake Geneva 10 percent Zurich

87 percent Central Switzerland 81 percent)

and 3 percent for single-family houses (Lake

Geneva 57 percent Zurich 41 percent

Central Switzerland 47 percent) Prices failed

to decline in any metropolitan region

Threat level seven

Aggregating the data reveals two important

trends Home prices still largely refl ect the

long-term economic fundamentals for Swit-

zerland as a whole At the same time how-

ever some regions are frothier than the Swiss

average particularly the communities sur-

rounding Lake Geneva Lake Zurich and Lake

Zug and several high-end resort areas south

of the Alps It would be irresponsible to treat

these territories as only isolated trouble spots

for the Swiss real estate market History has

shown that price corrections can trigger un-

predictable domino eff ects across several re-

gions Thus the threat level should be raised

for the entire Swiss real estate market Since

economics (still) has no threat levels for cat-

egorizing the severity of a real estate bubble

we shall use the meteorological Beaufort

scale which classifi es wind speed from 0

(calm) to 12 (hurricane) We would currently

set the metaphorical threat level at

seven ldquohigh windrdquo The description reads

ldquoWhole trees in motion Eff ort needed to

walk against the windrdquo

Residential real estate

1412

810

20

46

ndash4ndash2

09 1187 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

Mortgage loan growth not excessive

Sources SNB BFS UBS WMR

Change in ratio of mortgage volume to populationGDP in percent

Mortgage volume population Mortgage volume GDP (nominal)

UBS real estate focus January 201112

The rental apartment market is stable

and harbors upside potential Prices for

multi-family dwellings have made com-

mercial properties increasingly attractive

to investors

The cooler economy and slightly lower immi-

gration had no notable impact on overall

housing demand The number of apartments

under construction in Switzerland tapered off

marginally during the recession but has not

reached a turning point by any means Low

interest rates also supported construction in

2010 Over 70000 apartments were under

construction at the end of the third quarter of

2010 This is a record and almost 12 percent

higher than in 2009 The number of building

permits indicated that construction activity

will drop slightly in 2011 Given the recent

improvements in the economic environment

no signifi cant increase in vacancy rates is ex-

pected Switzerland has the lowest vacancy

rate in Europe at 09 percent

Scarcity drives rent increases

Low vacancy rates in urban areas have sup-

ported the growth in rents Switzerland as

a whole saw rents increase by an average of

2 percent in the fi rst three quarters of 2010

although performance varied widely between

regions Near Lake Geneva nominal rents

rose nearly 7 percent those in southern Swit-

zerland went up around 31 percent In other

major regions rents only increased by 08 to

16 percent during the same period Rents will

probably increase further given the economic

environment but each region should always

be analyzed separately Despite continued

construction in Zurich demographic trends

should soak up the additional supply A swell-

ing population in the Geneva region is facing

a very scarce supply which is driving up rents

More rural regions such as the Jura and parts

of Central Switzerland will see rents fall

Careful analysis of investments

Yield-seeking investors have buoyed invest-

ment demand Many have focused on rental

apartments and thus have raised prices for

existing multi-family dwellings While the rent-

al apartment market does not appear over-

heated among professional investors we still

recommend carefully analyzing prospective

investments We expect this yearrsquos overall

appreciation return on multi-family dwellings

to remain on par with prior years Since the

economy is expected to improve we assume

rising rents will push up commercial property

valuations This could enable commercial real

estate to outperform multi-family dwellings

in 2012

Rental apartments ndash steady returns

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Residential real estate

Overview of residential properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Residential construction and vacancies 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Net increase in number of homes 45 000 42 000 38 977 44 717 38 255

Residential vacancy rate 10 09 09 10 10

Rental apartments

Asking prices for rental apartments 15 17 35 42 31

Asking prices for new rental apartments ndash15 ndash12 ndash45 15 38

Price index for passing rents 10 11 24 25 17

Mortgage reference interest rate 5 30 28 30 35 ndash

Number of vacant rental apartments 31 000 28 947 26 343 28 138 29 567

Performance on residential direct investment 50 50 53 61 564

Owner-occupied homes

Asking prices for condominiums 30 49 64 41 42

Closing prices for condominiums 25 59 33 47 44

Asking prices for single-family homes 25 47 50 27 30

Closing prices for single-family homes 15 23 04 38 27

Variable mortgage interest rate all banks 5 30 27 27 28 33

Growth in mortgage loans all banks 45 51 49 34 41

Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end

UBS real estate focus January 2011 13

Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory

The taxation of imputed rental values as

income is controversial For years there

have been heated discussions about this

issue Last summer the Federal Council

threw its hat in the ring supporting a

total abolition of the tax in order to sim-

plify the tax code

In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-

sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-

tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The

Federal Council rejected the initiative and now

aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-

ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-

posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-

tions on private interest payments with certain

exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer

be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-

ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-

tion measures

Root of the problem taxing imputed

rental values

Interestingly the endless debate about IRV

taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and

other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-

ed as parts of one indivisible system However

we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-

nomic eff ects by examining each component

separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents

the rent revenues that homeowners could the-

oretically earn if they rented out their home on

the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-

ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-

ants and homeowners on an equal footing on

the premise that homeowners are better off

economically since they live rent-free

This is a specious argument in our view First

tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-

ment risk for their home and no opportunity

costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on

assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-

ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo

risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies

a he y property gains tax on any capital gains

Losses by contrast are fully borne by the

property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor

job of evening the odds between tenants and

homeowners Simply consider how IRV are

determined There are few comparable proper-

ties particularly for single-family homes and

luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-

sible to calculate the market rents that underlie

the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and

sometimes quite complicated assessment

methods to calculate IRV This violates classic

tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be

both simple and transparent

Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other

side of the coin

What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-

tem the deductions for mortgage interest and

maintenance expenses As the law stands the

tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners

to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-

pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-

ment could be more pragmatic about mort-

gage interest There are three main reasons

why deductions for owner-occupied homes

should be eliminated in our opinion as the

Federal Council is essentially proposing to do

First the deductions give households an incen-

tive to take on too much debt While this is not

necessarily bad in itself it is still not something

the government should be expressly encourag-

ing Second allowing income tax deductions

for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-

errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and

thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-

owners can claim larger interest deductions

thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by

contrast bear the full interest rate risk under

current tenant-landlord law through the refer-

ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair

to permit homeowners to claim deductions for

Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated

Source UBS WMR

Impact of home ownership on income tax

Taxable income WITHOUT home ownership

Taxable income WITH home ownership

+ Imputed rental valuendash Maintenance costsndash Mortgage interest

Current system of taxes on home ownership

In focus Residential real estate

Claudio Saputelli

Analyst UBS AG

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201114

The leverage formula is decisive

Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder

whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-

tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve

return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the

current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term

investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-

ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the

mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are

equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-

ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we

strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their

eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio

Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and

other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not

concentrating all your assets in your home

living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a

single cent

Dubious exceptions from interest

deductions

The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its

constitutional mandate to encourage home

ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-

ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up

to a certain franc limit over 10 years This

ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-

efi t high-income households which obviously

misses the point and should therefore be re-

considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-

rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest

income could still off set mortgage interest

against the full amount of their interest in-

come This is also a one-sided policy that large-

ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-

gage interest from their taxable interest and

securities income

The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-

come tax deductions for maintenance costs as

well as private mortgage interest This is a step

in the right direction A er all tenants do not

receive tax breaks on their living expenses

However the Federal Council is making excep-

tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency

and environmental protection measures that

meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very

labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-

ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for

each individual homeowner A more effi cient

method would directly subsidize eco-friendly

energy systems and construction materials

The tax on imputed rental values

should be abolished

The current tax on IRV makes little economic

sense in our view If it were abolished there

would be no need for many deductions and

exceptions which is why we think the govern-

ment should simplify the tax code by com-

pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership

That way homeowners can preserve both their

homes and their sanity around tax time

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 2011 15

Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game

An estimated 520000 withdrawals have

been made from retirement accounts since

1995 The withdrawn capital is expected

to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010

The possible impact on future retirement

benefi ts remains unknown but the risks

should not be ignored

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-

ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August

1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home

ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely

low compared to other countries Raising it is

an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also

policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-

ter when they claimed the low home owner-

ship rate showed too little was being done to

reach the political goal of widespread home

ownership among the population

Swiss home ownership rate remains low

The home ownership rate was 31 percent in

1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-

ership encouragement law began to allow

prospective home buyers to pledge and with-

draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-

manently occupied homes were owner-occu-

pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now

puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent

In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared

to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in

Italy

Why the low ownership rate First condo-

minium ownership was not introduced to

Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss

rental apartment market is relatively effi cient

compared to other countries which dulls the

incentive to own a home So what caused

the spike in the home ownership rate in the

1990s In that decade home prices fell a er

the real estate bubble burst declining sharply

relative to national income Third Switzer-

landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older

ndash the cohort where home ownership is most

common Finally people have been free to

pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-

sets for home purchases since 1995 However

it is not clear whether this statutory option

has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a

bandwagon eff ect

Occupational pensions unsuitable for

encouraging home ownership

The explicit goal of the occupational pension

system ndash established in 1985 to supplement

the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system

(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of

living when the policyholder retires dies or

becomes disabled As fully funded schemes

occupational pensions represent the most

politically attractive pot of money for encour-

aging home ownership Withdrawing pension

assets however does more than reduce

future retirement benefi ts It can also lower

death and disability benefi ts if they depend

on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned

contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals

are a poor vehicle for encouraging home

ownership since they clearly undermine the

main purpose of occupational pensions to

provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in

retirement age

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as

follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves

the purpose of occupational pensions because

living expenses represent one of the largest

costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow

It ignores the need to distribute investment

risks and choose assets that off er security and

an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-

eral Act on Occupational Pensions People

who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-

Thomas Veraguth

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

In focus Residential real estate

350040004500

3000

15001000

20002500

0500

4500040000

3000035000

1500010000

2000025000

05000

0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003

Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR

Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995

Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)

Total annual amount in CHF million

UBS real estate focus January 201116

posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and

considerable risks of the real estate market for

years at a time

Total sum withdrawn remains low

The statistics tell a nuanced story of how

withdrawals are being used to fi nance home

purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-

al pension schemes has nearly doubled since

1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in

2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-

lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs

withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-

resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in

occupational pension schemes over the past

15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-

count for around 05 percent of the total capi-

tal invested in occupational pensions By com-

parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the

single-family homes and condominiums in

Switzerland had an aggregate market value of

124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages

taken out by private households amounted to

566 billion francs in September 2010

The withdrawal statistics also harbor another

surprise the continuity of the amounts with-

drawn The average withdrawal has remained

within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000

Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked

in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-

sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for

680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-

counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred

by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of

annuities and lump-sum payments and 167

percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and

cash payments The 2009 percentages were

roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively

Moderation is key

From an economic perspective certain poten-

tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-

sion to allow consumers to make early pen-

sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily

consumers have exercised considerable self-

restraint as indicated by the data on the

number of withdrawals and total money with-

drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all

members of occupational pension schemes

make withdrawals each year This is in part

due to restrictions inserted in the legislation

by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals

As a result we are cautiously optimistic about

the future of home fi nancing but recommend

pledges over withdrawals

In focus Residential real estate

Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals

Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since

1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to

prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes

make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-

portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are

nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-

ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common

for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However

there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys

by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-

theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-

ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home

Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of

Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-

ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007

For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed

carefully when purchasing a home

UBS real estate focus January 2011 17

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for

greater comfort and higher living stand-

ards Already established abroad this

model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-

zerland

Greater prosperity and a steadily growing

number of small households are driving demand

for new models of living with integrated ser-

vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-

nants and senior citizens The upper middle

class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income

no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free

time on tedious errands or exhausting chores

Even young families are increasingly discovering

the modelrsquos benefi ts

Growing importance of new models

of living

Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-

ing needs Over the years we have seen the

emergence of nursing homes independent liv-

ing and assisted-living communities There is

now an even richer more diverse menu of

options ranging from boarding houses to full-

service living While this latest model may re-

main a niche product for several years we think

demand will stay strong for the foreseeable

future thanks to demographic change growing

interest in support and services and a greater

overall need for higher living standards Of-

ferings need to be aligned with target group

needs and interests though Our experience

with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project

shows that models should be tailored to both

the target group and local conditions

James ndash Full-service Living

The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the

brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-

erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the

fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex

in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009

the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-

sion Fund Assets built a second James complex

in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-

four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-

cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third

James complex is under construction in Winter-

thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-

2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-

ping thanks to a direct connection between the

roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center

restaurants and a parking garage

The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects

todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not

only modern communication technologies (In-

ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-

tion (James is physically on the premises) At a

James complex rent includes a wide array of

concierge services such as receiving guests

accepting packages and purchases or reserving

concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to

mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services

such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet

care plant watering or vacation service These

services are billed separately under a pay-as-

you-go scheme

Components of full-service living

Home concierge services are new to Switzer-

land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-

nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it

mainly designates French superintendents or

caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-

cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-

sive personal services for tenants and visitors as

well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-

tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-

yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-

ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The

James concept embraces this principle When

tenants and visitors enter a James apartment

complex it should be readily apparent that this

is more than just a place to live The James ndash

Full-service Living concept can also adapt to

Patric Caillat

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Possible concept for full-service living

Source UBS GRE Switzerland

The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo

Living as a core service

Basic services included in rent

Agrave la carte services

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 201118

residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time

thanks to its extensive modular service off ering

The program is based on three components

residential use integrated basic services and

additional agrave la carte services

The apartment is the core service and as such

must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in

terms of location infrastructure amenities and

aesthetics The rent must also include several

basic services that are important to the target

groups This diff erentiates James from a regular

apartment complex Residents can also use

many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply

pick the services they need and pay for them

separately which makes the apartment some-

thing like a hotel To be successful the concept

has to combine these elements intelligently

while taking local circumstances into account

Other models on the market

Several models with slightly diff erent approach-

es have been launched in recent years Besides

James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-

set Management other full-service models in-

clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real

Estate Asset Management department and

ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG

Combining services with attractive living can

give a property its own unique character and

ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps

support intelligent real estate marketing How-

ever full-service living can only work if the

services benefi t users operators and owners

alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-

perience with such models it certainly has the

conditions and outlook needed to achieve a

win-win situation

Added value at an attractive price

ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work

users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat

value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to

tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er

all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-

cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go

scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start

Who is the target audience What services do they want While this

might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos

success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are

handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts

will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-

tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo

changing needs

In focus Residential real estate

Commercial real estate and special uses

The market separates the wheat from the chaff

UBS real estate focus January 201120

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in rela-

tively good shape We expect price pres-

sure from tenants to widen the perform-

ance gap between central and peripheral

locations

Offi ce space is the most important sector of

the Swiss commercial real estate market The

commercial property market was estimated

to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end

of 2009 according to Investment Property

Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this

total was offi ce space while retail properties

made up 377 percent and industrial real es-

tate 35 percent

Stable demand factors

Besides being large the offi ce property seg-

ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-

ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the

total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of

Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and

business services represent over 18 percent of

total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-

centage compared to other countries The

Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-

where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-

tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-

tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos

growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still

remained positive Part-time employment is

also becoming more widespread in Switzer-

land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies

are focusing on boosting employee productiv-

ity Future employment growth looks likely to

be moderate as a result

Rising importance of quality

The prospect of slow but positive employment

growth highlights the importance of analyzing

the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates

range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is

moderate compared to other countries and has

recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In

crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found

that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce

completions have been much higher in Ger-

man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-

zerland in recent years In 201112 around

150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the

market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2

in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the

various kinds of offi ce space on the market For

example we are skeptical about the medium-

term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-

erties (poor access to transportation and low

availability of services) on the periphery of cit-

ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-

geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-

ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be

strong expanding the labor market companies

still need to provide attractive workplaces for

their employees Easily accessible central offi ce

locations will gain even more importance Un-

der these pressures the offi ce market should

start to more clearly separate the wheat from

the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce

space is scarce should perform well while

non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle

to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral

locations will be squeezed since they are main-

ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce

functions Through renovation or new con-

structions in contrast downtown locations

should see further appreciation and attractive

returns For this reason we think rents for

high-end offi ce space should rise further

Positive appreciation rate

Despite falling interest rates and government

bond yields initial yields in the institutional

offi ce segment have hardly budged according

to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and

2009 In contrast to many European real estate

markets the appreciation rate is still positively

Commercial real estate and special uses

5

34

0ndash1

12

ndash3ndash2

2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

No drop in employment in Switzerland

Source Experian Business Services June 2010

Employment growth in financial and business services in percent

SwitzerlandEU15

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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UseObjectSettings Namespace [ (Adobe) (CreativeSuite) (20) ] PDFXOutputIntentProfileSelector DocumentCMYK PageMarksFile RomanDefault PreserveEditing true UntaggedCMYKHandling UseDocumentProfile UntaggedRGBHandling UseDocumentProfile UseDocumentBleed false gtgt ]gtgt setdistillerparamsltlt HWResolution [144 144] PageSize [612000 792000]gtgt setpagedevice

Page 7: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 2011 7

Market drivers

2008 2009 2010 20112002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Historically low interest rates about to end

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Historical and projected interest rates in percent

4540

3035

1510

2025

005

Money market rates (Libor 3-m)5-year interest rates (swap)

10-year interest rates (swap)

Forecast

Interest rates in Switzerland are extremely

low right now We expect this to change in

2011 The domestic economyrsquos robust

growth expected rise in infl ation and nec-

essary tightening of monetary policy all

point to higher interest rates

Imports account for over one quarter of the

basket of goods used to track consumer price

infl ation ndash petroleum products alone make up

almost 5 percent The strong franc has fueled

import price defl ation in recent months which

has dragged year-on-year infl ation below 05

percent as measured by the national consumer

price index Since we do not expect the franc

to appreciate further we think exchange rates

should gradually lose their defl ationary power

this year Commodity prices have also risen

sharply in recent months together with the

elimination of the exchange rate eff ect this

should drive up import prices during the year

The persistent strength of the domestic econo-

my should also drive up the prices of domestic

goods We expect infl ation to reach almost

1 percent in 2011 and to trend towards

2 percent in 2012

SNB to make interest rate move in fi rst

half-year

UBS Economic Research Switzerland forecasts

higher infl ation than the Swiss National Bank

(SNB) The SNB surprisingly lowered its infl ation

forecast in its monetary policy assessment of

September 2010 and confi rmed its low infl a-

tion forecast in its monetary policy assessment

of December 2010 We expect the SNB to raise

its infl ation forecast again and possibly hike

interest rates 025 percent in the fi rst half of

the year to prevent the domestic economy and

real estate markets from overheating

Swiss Confederation bonds are benefi ting from

their status as an international safe haven

Europersquos debt crisis and loose monetary policy

worldwide have driven investors into Swiss

government bonds and pushed yields down to

levels not seen since 1965

We believe however that investors should

prepare themselves for rising interest rates and

bond yields in the medium term The economic

recovery should continue and loose monetary

policy should tighten up during the year Bond

markets usually preempt monetary tightening

and raise yields in advance Overall higher in-

terest rates will probably be introduced gradu-

ally and we expect interest rates to remain

historically low this year

Financing terms remain attractive

Real estate fi nancing will remain inexpensive

for now which will support real estate prices

The mortgage reference interest rate used to

calculate residential rents will rise marginally

but not until the second half of the year Rent

increases on commercial properties will also be

limited They are generally tied to infl ation

which is currently low

Infl ation and interest rates

Achim Peijan

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

Caesar Lack

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 20118

Market drivers

Population growth has been above aver-

age in recent years fueled mainly by an

exceptionally high infl ux of immigrants

Employment has remained surprisingly

robust since the 2009 recession The

fi nancial crisis has barely le a mark on

the tertiary sector

Switzerlandrsquos population has grown vigor-

ously for the 33rd year in a row Our extra-

polation based on provisional monthly data

provided by the Federal Statistical Offi ce pre-

dicts growth of 11 percent in 2010 Over the

last 40 years Switzerland has only seen pop-

ulation growth exceed 1 percent seven times

ndash including four out of the last four years

The free movement of persons from the EU-

17 and EFTA member states instituted in

June 2007 has obviously le its mark This

fi nding is borne out by a detailed analysis

of net migration While net migration (in-

cluding status changes) accounted for about

50 percent of population growth in the

1980s and 1990s it has recently contributed

80 percent and more (2007 91 percent) The

cantons of Vaud Obwalden Fribourg Ge-

neva Aargau and Zurich likely experienced

above-average growth in 2010 Given the

positive economic prospects overall we ex-

pect the population to grow around 1 per-

cent again in 2011

Employment also growing

Employment has also grown in recent years In

terms of full-time equivalents (FTEs) employ-

ment climbed a record-breaking 84 percent

during the 2005ndash2008 boom period In 2009

however total employment became sluggish for

several quarters The slowdown was largely con-

centrated in manufacturing although employ-

ment numbers went up again slightly in the third

quarter of 2010 This has also brightened senti-

ment in the secondary sector The service sector

by contrast recorded overall growth of 07 per-

cent even in the depths of the 2009 recession

The commercial real estate market is mainly af-

fected by the offi ce and retail sectors In the fi rst

three quarters of 2010 the offi ce sector saw a

negligible 02 percent year-on-year increase in

employment Retail employment also managed

to grow during this period ndash by 12 percent

Thus retail more than compensated for the prior

yearrsquos drop in employment

Housing demand remains strong

Continued population growth should keep hous-

ing demand strong Prices will only so en ndash espe-

cially for privately owned homes ndash if residential

construction steps up In the commercial real

estate market demand for retail space is show-

ing signs of improvement Demand for offi ce

space by contrast will most likely be driven by

space optimization

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

Population and employment

Overview of property market drivers

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Business cycle and income 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Real gross domestic product 23 27 ndash19 19 17

Real construction investment 13 34 30 00 11

Real wage growth 07 04 26 ndash04 07

Infl ation and interest rates

Average annual infl ation 09 07 ndash05 24 09

3-month Libor CHF4 12 02 03 07 10

Yield on 10-yr Swiss Federal bonds4 24 18 19 21 25

Population and employment

Population 11 11 11 14 09

Employment in FTE 12 07 ndash01 27 10

Unemployment rate 34 39 37 26 32

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Seco BFS UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Year-end

Residential real estate

The Swiss property market is not overheated overall but vigilance is still warranted

UBS real estate focus January 201110

Homes ndash elevated threat level

Home prices continue to soar This up-

ward trend has not fl attened out as ex-

pected in previous quarters The public is

increasingly worried about a real estate

bubble ndash with some justifi cation Caution

is advised

Meteorological language is o en razor-sharp

Fog is ldquodenserdquo when visibility is less than a

quarter of a mile Gentle rain is a ldquodrizzlerdquo if

the water droplets have diameters between

02 and 05 millimeters The sky is ldquoovercastrdquo

if clouds cover over nine-tenths of it but only

ldquocloudyrdquo if they cover seven-tenths No won-

der economists o en envy meteorology for its

crisp terminology Their fi eld is much fuzzier

For example no economist can identify the

exact criteria that defi ne a real estate bubble

Experts agree that real estate is somehow

heavily overvalued in a bubble but cannot say

how much or how long prices have to in-

crease before a hot market becomes a full-

blown bubble

Real estate bubbles are usually followed by a

rapid dramatic fall in prices Not even this

criterion though provides a tangible defi ni-

tion of a real estate bubble Because bubbles

are not governed by any quantifi able criteria

the public and even experts are far too quick

to label many buoyant markets ldquobubblesrdquo

This has been happening in Switzerland since

early last year a er a recent steep spike in

home prices Letrsquos consider the facts The

Swiss property market began its rise in 1998

Condominium prices have climbed 56 percent

since then while single-family home prices

have gained 37 percent according to the

Wuumlest amp Partner indexes Is this sustainable

To fi nd out economists compare home prices

to three factors rents infl ation and income

Condominiums less aff ordable

Rental apartments are valid substitutes for

houses thanks to Switzerlandrsquos mature body

of landlord-tenant law so excessive discrep-

ancies between the two price trends can indi-

cate market imbalances In the past 12 years

rents rose by roughly the same percentage as

prices for single-family houses The diver-

gence though visible was insignifi cant given

the period of time and diff erences in quality

Rental apartments tend to be older lower-

cost properties while the interior quality of

condominiums has recently improved dramati-

cally As for the infl ation comparison count-

less international studies have shown that

infl ation-adjusted property prices are stagnant

over the long term This was certainly the case

in the Swiss house market between 1970 and

2000

Real estate prices have signifi cantly outpaced

infl ation since 2000 though leaving a worry-

ing gap between the two curves Theoreti-

cally the maximum potential drop in home

prices is the current diff erence between the

curves 33 percent for condominiums and

26 percent for single-family houses Another

well-regarded economic approach by con-

trast links the long-term home price trend to

disposable household income This is called

ldquohousing aff ordabilityrdquo If real estate prices

rise faster than disposable income this ap-

proach says that homes are less aff ordable for

households Demand weakens and prices fall

Average disposable income in Switzerland has

risen by roughly 35 percent since 1998 So

while the aff ordability of single-family houses

in Switzerland has remained more or less

steady during this period it has fallen consid-

erably for condominiums

Large regional discrepancies

This fi nding only applies to Switzerland as a

whole but local real estate markets vary

widely Average annual increases in condo-

Residential real estate

300

250275

175150

200225

100125

98 04 06 080200 1080 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

House prices not overheated overall

Sources BFS Wuumlest amp Partner UBS WMR

House prices compared to rent and disposable income (1980 = 100)

Consumer pricesHouse prices Zurich reg

House prices SwitzerlRental apt Switzerland

House prices Lake GenevaDisposable income

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 11

minium prices since 2000 range from 3 per-

cent for the Berne region to 8 percent for the

Lake Geneva region (Switzerland 42 per-

cent) At these rates real estate prices will

need 24 years to double in the Berne region

but only nine years in the Lake Geneva region

In fact Lake Geneva prices would sextuple in

24 years if growth were to remain un-

changed This simple calculation shows that

Lake Genevarsquos trend is clearly unsustainable

Housing prices are still skyrocketing despite

the general desire for a slowdown In the

third quarter of 2010 transaction prices rose

73 percent year-on-year for condominiums in

Switzerland (Lake Geneva 10 percent Zurich

87 percent Central Switzerland 81 percent)

and 3 percent for single-family houses (Lake

Geneva 57 percent Zurich 41 percent

Central Switzerland 47 percent) Prices failed

to decline in any metropolitan region

Threat level seven

Aggregating the data reveals two important

trends Home prices still largely refl ect the

long-term economic fundamentals for Swit-

zerland as a whole At the same time how-

ever some regions are frothier than the Swiss

average particularly the communities sur-

rounding Lake Geneva Lake Zurich and Lake

Zug and several high-end resort areas south

of the Alps It would be irresponsible to treat

these territories as only isolated trouble spots

for the Swiss real estate market History has

shown that price corrections can trigger un-

predictable domino eff ects across several re-

gions Thus the threat level should be raised

for the entire Swiss real estate market Since

economics (still) has no threat levels for cat-

egorizing the severity of a real estate bubble

we shall use the meteorological Beaufort

scale which classifi es wind speed from 0

(calm) to 12 (hurricane) We would currently

set the metaphorical threat level at

seven ldquohigh windrdquo The description reads

ldquoWhole trees in motion Eff ort needed to

walk against the windrdquo

Residential real estate

1412

810

20

46

ndash4ndash2

09 1187 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

Mortgage loan growth not excessive

Sources SNB BFS UBS WMR

Change in ratio of mortgage volume to populationGDP in percent

Mortgage volume population Mortgage volume GDP (nominal)

UBS real estate focus January 201112

The rental apartment market is stable

and harbors upside potential Prices for

multi-family dwellings have made com-

mercial properties increasingly attractive

to investors

The cooler economy and slightly lower immi-

gration had no notable impact on overall

housing demand The number of apartments

under construction in Switzerland tapered off

marginally during the recession but has not

reached a turning point by any means Low

interest rates also supported construction in

2010 Over 70000 apartments were under

construction at the end of the third quarter of

2010 This is a record and almost 12 percent

higher than in 2009 The number of building

permits indicated that construction activity

will drop slightly in 2011 Given the recent

improvements in the economic environment

no signifi cant increase in vacancy rates is ex-

pected Switzerland has the lowest vacancy

rate in Europe at 09 percent

Scarcity drives rent increases

Low vacancy rates in urban areas have sup-

ported the growth in rents Switzerland as

a whole saw rents increase by an average of

2 percent in the fi rst three quarters of 2010

although performance varied widely between

regions Near Lake Geneva nominal rents

rose nearly 7 percent those in southern Swit-

zerland went up around 31 percent In other

major regions rents only increased by 08 to

16 percent during the same period Rents will

probably increase further given the economic

environment but each region should always

be analyzed separately Despite continued

construction in Zurich demographic trends

should soak up the additional supply A swell-

ing population in the Geneva region is facing

a very scarce supply which is driving up rents

More rural regions such as the Jura and parts

of Central Switzerland will see rents fall

Careful analysis of investments

Yield-seeking investors have buoyed invest-

ment demand Many have focused on rental

apartments and thus have raised prices for

existing multi-family dwellings While the rent-

al apartment market does not appear over-

heated among professional investors we still

recommend carefully analyzing prospective

investments We expect this yearrsquos overall

appreciation return on multi-family dwellings

to remain on par with prior years Since the

economy is expected to improve we assume

rising rents will push up commercial property

valuations This could enable commercial real

estate to outperform multi-family dwellings

in 2012

Rental apartments ndash steady returns

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Residential real estate

Overview of residential properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Residential construction and vacancies 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Net increase in number of homes 45 000 42 000 38 977 44 717 38 255

Residential vacancy rate 10 09 09 10 10

Rental apartments

Asking prices for rental apartments 15 17 35 42 31

Asking prices for new rental apartments ndash15 ndash12 ndash45 15 38

Price index for passing rents 10 11 24 25 17

Mortgage reference interest rate 5 30 28 30 35 ndash

Number of vacant rental apartments 31 000 28 947 26 343 28 138 29 567

Performance on residential direct investment 50 50 53 61 564

Owner-occupied homes

Asking prices for condominiums 30 49 64 41 42

Closing prices for condominiums 25 59 33 47 44

Asking prices for single-family homes 25 47 50 27 30

Closing prices for single-family homes 15 23 04 38 27

Variable mortgage interest rate all banks 5 30 27 27 28 33

Growth in mortgage loans all banks 45 51 49 34 41

Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end

UBS real estate focus January 2011 13

Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory

The taxation of imputed rental values as

income is controversial For years there

have been heated discussions about this

issue Last summer the Federal Council

threw its hat in the ring supporting a

total abolition of the tax in order to sim-

plify the tax code

In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-

sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-

tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The

Federal Council rejected the initiative and now

aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-

ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-

posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-

tions on private interest payments with certain

exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer

be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-

ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-

tion measures

Root of the problem taxing imputed

rental values

Interestingly the endless debate about IRV

taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and

other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-

ed as parts of one indivisible system However

we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-

nomic eff ects by examining each component

separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents

the rent revenues that homeowners could the-

oretically earn if they rented out their home on

the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-

ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-

ants and homeowners on an equal footing on

the premise that homeowners are better off

economically since they live rent-free

This is a specious argument in our view First

tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-

ment risk for their home and no opportunity

costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on

assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-

ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo

risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies

a he y property gains tax on any capital gains

Losses by contrast are fully borne by the

property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor

job of evening the odds between tenants and

homeowners Simply consider how IRV are

determined There are few comparable proper-

ties particularly for single-family homes and

luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-

sible to calculate the market rents that underlie

the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and

sometimes quite complicated assessment

methods to calculate IRV This violates classic

tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be

both simple and transparent

Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other

side of the coin

What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-

tem the deductions for mortgage interest and

maintenance expenses As the law stands the

tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners

to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-

pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-

ment could be more pragmatic about mort-

gage interest There are three main reasons

why deductions for owner-occupied homes

should be eliminated in our opinion as the

Federal Council is essentially proposing to do

First the deductions give households an incen-

tive to take on too much debt While this is not

necessarily bad in itself it is still not something

the government should be expressly encourag-

ing Second allowing income tax deductions

for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-

errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and

thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-

owners can claim larger interest deductions

thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by

contrast bear the full interest rate risk under

current tenant-landlord law through the refer-

ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair

to permit homeowners to claim deductions for

Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated

Source UBS WMR

Impact of home ownership on income tax

Taxable income WITHOUT home ownership

Taxable income WITH home ownership

+ Imputed rental valuendash Maintenance costsndash Mortgage interest

Current system of taxes on home ownership

In focus Residential real estate

Claudio Saputelli

Analyst UBS AG

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201114

The leverage formula is decisive

Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder

whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-

tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve

return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the

current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term

investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-

ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the

mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are

equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-

ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we

strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their

eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio

Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and

other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not

concentrating all your assets in your home

living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a

single cent

Dubious exceptions from interest

deductions

The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its

constitutional mandate to encourage home

ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-

ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up

to a certain franc limit over 10 years This

ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-

efi t high-income households which obviously

misses the point and should therefore be re-

considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-

rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest

income could still off set mortgage interest

against the full amount of their interest in-

come This is also a one-sided policy that large-

ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-

gage interest from their taxable interest and

securities income

The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-

come tax deductions for maintenance costs as

well as private mortgage interest This is a step

in the right direction A er all tenants do not

receive tax breaks on their living expenses

However the Federal Council is making excep-

tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency

and environmental protection measures that

meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very

labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-

ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for

each individual homeowner A more effi cient

method would directly subsidize eco-friendly

energy systems and construction materials

The tax on imputed rental values

should be abolished

The current tax on IRV makes little economic

sense in our view If it were abolished there

would be no need for many deductions and

exceptions which is why we think the govern-

ment should simplify the tax code by com-

pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership

That way homeowners can preserve both their

homes and their sanity around tax time

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 2011 15

Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game

An estimated 520000 withdrawals have

been made from retirement accounts since

1995 The withdrawn capital is expected

to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010

The possible impact on future retirement

benefi ts remains unknown but the risks

should not be ignored

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-

ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August

1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home

ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely

low compared to other countries Raising it is

an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also

policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-

ter when they claimed the low home owner-

ship rate showed too little was being done to

reach the political goal of widespread home

ownership among the population

Swiss home ownership rate remains low

The home ownership rate was 31 percent in

1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-

ership encouragement law began to allow

prospective home buyers to pledge and with-

draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-

manently occupied homes were owner-occu-

pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now

puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent

In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared

to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in

Italy

Why the low ownership rate First condo-

minium ownership was not introduced to

Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss

rental apartment market is relatively effi cient

compared to other countries which dulls the

incentive to own a home So what caused

the spike in the home ownership rate in the

1990s In that decade home prices fell a er

the real estate bubble burst declining sharply

relative to national income Third Switzer-

landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older

ndash the cohort where home ownership is most

common Finally people have been free to

pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-

sets for home purchases since 1995 However

it is not clear whether this statutory option

has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a

bandwagon eff ect

Occupational pensions unsuitable for

encouraging home ownership

The explicit goal of the occupational pension

system ndash established in 1985 to supplement

the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system

(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of

living when the policyholder retires dies or

becomes disabled As fully funded schemes

occupational pensions represent the most

politically attractive pot of money for encour-

aging home ownership Withdrawing pension

assets however does more than reduce

future retirement benefi ts It can also lower

death and disability benefi ts if they depend

on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned

contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals

are a poor vehicle for encouraging home

ownership since they clearly undermine the

main purpose of occupational pensions to

provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in

retirement age

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as

follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves

the purpose of occupational pensions because

living expenses represent one of the largest

costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow

It ignores the need to distribute investment

risks and choose assets that off er security and

an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-

eral Act on Occupational Pensions People

who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-

Thomas Veraguth

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

In focus Residential real estate

350040004500

3000

15001000

20002500

0500

4500040000

3000035000

1500010000

2000025000

05000

0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003

Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR

Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995

Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)

Total annual amount in CHF million

UBS real estate focus January 201116

posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and

considerable risks of the real estate market for

years at a time

Total sum withdrawn remains low

The statistics tell a nuanced story of how

withdrawals are being used to fi nance home

purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-

al pension schemes has nearly doubled since

1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in

2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-

lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs

withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-

resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in

occupational pension schemes over the past

15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-

count for around 05 percent of the total capi-

tal invested in occupational pensions By com-

parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the

single-family homes and condominiums in

Switzerland had an aggregate market value of

124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages

taken out by private households amounted to

566 billion francs in September 2010

The withdrawal statistics also harbor another

surprise the continuity of the amounts with-

drawn The average withdrawal has remained

within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000

Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked

in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-

sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for

680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-

counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred

by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of

annuities and lump-sum payments and 167

percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and

cash payments The 2009 percentages were

roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively

Moderation is key

From an economic perspective certain poten-

tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-

sion to allow consumers to make early pen-

sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily

consumers have exercised considerable self-

restraint as indicated by the data on the

number of withdrawals and total money with-

drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all

members of occupational pension schemes

make withdrawals each year This is in part

due to restrictions inserted in the legislation

by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals

As a result we are cautiously optimistic about

the future of home fi nancing but recommend

pledges over withdrawals

In focus Residential real estate

Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals

Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since

1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to

prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes

make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-

portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are

nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-

ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common

for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However

there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys

by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-

theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-

ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home

Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of

Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-

ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007

For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed

carefully when purchasing a home

UBS real estate focus January 2011 17

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for

greater comfort and higher living stand-

ards Already established abroad this

model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-

zerland

Greater prosperity and a steadily growing

number of small households are driving demand

for new models of living with integrated ser-

vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-

nants and senior citizens The upper middle

class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income

no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free

time on tedious errands or exhausting chores

Even young families are increasingly discovering

the modelrsquos benefi ts

Growing importance of new models

of living

Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-

ing needs Over the years we have seen the

emergence of nursing homes independent liv-

ing and assisted-living communities There is

now an even richer more diverse menu of

options ranging from boarding houses to full-

service living While this latest model may re-

main a niche product for several years we think

demand will stay strong for the foreseeable

future thanks to demographic change growing

interest in support and services and a greater

overall need for higher living standards Of-

ferings need to be aligned with target group

needs and interests though Our experience

with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project

shows that models should be tailored to both

the target group and local conditions

James ndash Full-service Living

The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the

brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-

erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the

fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex

in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009

the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-

sion Fund Assets built a second James complex

in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-

four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-

cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third

James complex is under construction in Winter-

thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-

2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-

ping thanks to a direct connection between the

roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center

restaurants and a parking garage

The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects

todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not

only modern communication technologies (In-

ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-

tion (James is physically on the premises) At a

James complex rent includes a wide array of

concierge services such as receiving guests

accepting packages and purchases or reserving

concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to

mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services

such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet

care plant watering or vacation service These

services are billed separately under a pay-as-

you-go scheme

Components of full-service living

Home concierge services are new to Switzer-

land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-

nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it

mainly designates French superintendents or

caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-

cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-

sive personal services for tenants and visitors as

well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-

tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-

yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-

ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The

James concept embraces this principle When

tenants and visitors enter a James apartment

complex it should be readily apparent that this

is more than just a place to live The James ndash

Full-service Living concept can also adapt to

Patric Caillat

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Possible concept for full-service living

Source UBS GRE Switzerland

The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo

Living as a core service

Basic services included in rent

Agrave la carte services

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 201118

residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time

thanks to its extensive modular service off ering

The program is based on three components

residential use integrated basic services and

additional agrave la carte services

The apartment is the core service and as such

must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in

terms of location infrastructure amenities and

aesthetics The rent must also include several

basic services that are important to the target

groups This diff erentiates James from a regular

apartment complex Residents can also use

many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply

pick the services they need and pay for them

separately which makes the apartment some-

thing like a hotel To be successful the concept

has to combine these elements intelligently

while taking local circumstances into account

Other models on the market

Several models with slightly diff erent approach-

es have been launched in recent years Besides

James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-

set Management other full-service models in-

clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real

Estate Asset Management department and

ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG

Combining services with attractive living can

give a property its own unique character and

ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps

support intelligent real estate marketing How-

ever full-service living can only work if the

services benefi t users operators and owners

alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-

perience with such models it certainly has the

conditions and outlook needed to achieve a

win-win situation

Added value at an attractive price

ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work

users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat

value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to

tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er

all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-

cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go

scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start

Who is the target audience What services do they want While this

might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos

success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are

handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts

will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-

tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo

changing needs

In focus Residential real estate

Commercial real estate and special uses

The market separates the wheat from the chaff

UBS real estate focus January 201120

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in rela-

tively good shape We expect price pres-

sure from tenants to widen the perform-

ance gap between central and peripheral

locations

Offi ce space is the most important sector of

the Swiss commercial real estate market The

commercial property market was estimated

to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end

of 2009 according to Investment Property

Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this

total was offi ce space while retail properties

made up 377 percent and industrial real es-

tate 35 percent

Stable demand factors

Besides being large the offi ce property seg-

ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-

ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the

total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of

Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and

business services represent over 18 percent of

total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-

centage compared to other countries The

Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-

where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-

tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-

tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos

growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still

remained positive Part-time employment is

also becoming more widespread in Switzer-

land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies

are focusing on boosting employee productiv-

ity Future employment growth looks likely to

be moderate as a result

Rising importance of quality

The prospect of slow but positive employment

growth highlights the importance of analyzing

the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates

range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is

moderate compared to other countries and has

recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In

crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found

that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce

completions have been much higher in Ger-

man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-

zerland in recent years In 201112 around

150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the

market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2

in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the

various kinds of offi ce space on the market For

example we are skeptical about the medium-

term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-

erties (poor access to transportation and low

availability of services) on the periphery of cit-

ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-

geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-

ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be

strong expanding the labor market companies

still need to provide attractive workplaces for

their employees Easily accessible central offi ce

locations will gain even more importance Un-

der these pressures the offi ce market should

start to more clearly separate the wheat from

the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce

space is scarce should perform well while

non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle

to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral

locations will be squeezed since they are main-

ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce

functions Through renovation or new con-

structions in contrast downtown locations

should see further appreciation and attractive

returns For this reason we think rents for

high-end offi ce space should rise further

Positive appreciation rate

Despite falling interest rates and government

bond yields initial yields in the institutional

offi ce segment have hardly budged according

to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and

2009 In contrast to many European real estate

markets the appreciation rate is still positively

Commercial real estate and special uses

5

34

0ndash1

12

ndash3ndash2

2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

No drop in employment in Switzerland

Source Experian Business Services June 2010

Employment growth in financial and business services in percent

SwitzerlandEU15

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 8: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 20118

Market drivers

Population growth has been above aver-

age in recent years fueled mainly by an

exceptionally high infl ux of immigrants

Employment has remained surprisingly

robust since the 2009 recession The

fi nancial crisis has barely le a mark on

the tertiary sector

Switzerlandrsquos population has grown vigor-

ously for the 33rd year in a row Our extra-

polation based on provisional monthly data

provided by the Federal Statistical Offi ce pre-

dicts growth of 11 percent in 2010 Over the

last 40 years Switzerland has only seen pop-

ulation growth exceed 1 percent seven times

ndash including four out of the last four years

The free movement of persons from the EU-

17 and EFTA member states instituted in

June 2007 has obviously le its mark This

fi nding is borne out by a detailed analysis

of net migration While net migration (in-

cluding status changes) accounted for about

50 percent of population growth in the

1980s and 1990s it has recently contributed

80 percent and more (2007 91 percent) The

cantons of Vaud Obwalden Fribourg Ge-

neva Aargau and Zurich likely experienced

above-average growth in 2010 Given the

positive economic prospects overall we ex-

pect the population to grow around 1 per-

cent again in 2011

Employment also growing

Employment has also grown in recent years In

terms of full-time equivalents (FTEs) employ-

ment climbed a record-breaking 84 percent

during the 2005ndash2008 boom period In 2009

however total employment became sluggish for

several quarters The slowdown was largely con-

centrated in manufacturing although employ-

ment numbers went up again slightly in the third

quarter of 2010 This has also brightened senti-

ment in the secondary sector The service sector

by contrast recorded overall growth of 07 per-

cent even in the depths of the 2009 recession

The commercial real estate market is mainly af-

fected by the offi ce and retail sectors In the fi rst

three quarters of 2010 the offi ce sector saw a

negligible 02 percent year-on-year increase in

employment Retail employment also managed

to grow during this period ndash by 12 percent

Thus retail more than compensated for the prior

yearrsquos drop in employment

Housing demand remains strong

Continued population growth should keep hous-

ing demand strong Prices will only so en ndash espe-

cially for privately owned homes ndash if residential

construction steps up In the commercial real

estate market demand for retail space is show-

ing signs of improvement Demand for offi ce

space by contrast will most likely be driven by

space optimization

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

Population and employment

Overview of property market drivers

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Business cycle and income 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Real gross domestic product 23 27 ndash19 19 17

Real construction investment 13 34 30 00 11

Real wage growth 07 04 26 ndash04 07

Infl ation and interest rates

Average annual infl ation 09 07 ndash05 24 09

3-month Libor CHF4 12 02 03 07 10

Yield on 10-yr Swiss Federal bonds4 24 18 19 21 25

Population and employment

Population 11 11 11 14 09

Employment in FTE 12 07 ndash01 27 10

Unemployment rate 34 39 37 26 32

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Seco BFS UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Year-end

Residential real estate

The Swiss property market is not overheated overall but vigilance is still warranted

UBS real estate focus January 201110

Homes ndash elevated threat level

Home prices continue to soar This up-

ward trend has not fl attened out as ex-

pected in previous quarters The public is

increasingly worried about a real estate

bubble ndash with some justifi cation Caution

is advised

Meteorological language is o en razor-sharp

Fog is ldquodenserdquo when visibility is less than a

quarter of a mile Gentle rain is a ldquodrizzlerdquo if

the water droplets have diameters between

02 and 05 millimeters The sky is ldquoovercastrdquo

if clouds cover over nine-tenths of it but only

ldquocloudyrdquo if they cover seven-tenths No won-

der economists o en envy meteorology for its

crisp terminology Their fi eld is much fuzzier

For example no economist can identify the

exact criteria that defi ne a real estate bubble

Experts agree that real estate is somehow

heavily overvalued in a bubble but cannot say

how much or how long prices have to in-

crease before a hot market becomes a full-

blown bubble

Real estate bubbles are usually followed by a

rapid dramatic fall in prices Not even this

criterion though provides a tangible defi ni-

tion of a real estate bubble Because bubbles

are not governed by any quantifi able criteria

the public and even experts are far too quick

to label many buoyant markets ldquobubblesrdquo

This has been happening in Switzerland since

early last year a er a recent steep spike in

home prices Letrsquos consider the facts The

Swiss property market began its rise in 1998

Condominium prices have climbed 56 percent

since then while single-family home prices

have gained 37 percent according to the

Wuumlest amp Partner indexes Is this sustainable

To fi nd out economists compare home prices

to three factors rents infl ation and income

Condominiums less aff ordable

Rental apartments are valid substitutes for

houses thanks to Switzerlandrsquos mature body

of landlord-tenant law so excessive discrep-

ancies between the two price trends can indi-

cate market imbalances In the past 12 years

rents rose by roughly the same percentage as

prices for single-family houses The diver-

gence though visible was insignifi cant given

the period of time and diff erences in quality

Rental apartments tend to be older lower-

cost properties while the interior quality of

condominiums has recently improved dramati-

cally As for the infl ation comparison count-

less international studies have shown that

infl ation-adjusted property prices are stagnant

over the long term This was certainly the case

in the Swiss house market between 1970 and

2000

Real estate prices have signifi cantly outpaced

infl ation since 2000 though leaving a worry-

ing gap between the two curves Theoreti-

cally the maximum potential drop in home

prices is the current diff erence between the

curves 33 percent for condominiums and

26 percent for single-family houses Another

well-regarded economic approach by con-

trast links the long-term home price trend to

disposable household income This is called

ldquohousing aff ordabilityrdquo If real estate prices

rise faster than disposable income this ap-

proach says that homes are less aff ordable for

households Demand weakens and prices fall

Average disposable income in Switzerland has

risen by roughly 35 percent since 1998 So

while the aff ordability of single-family houses

in Switzerland has remained more or less

steady during this period it has fallen consid-

erably for condominiums

Large regional discrepancies

This fi nding only applies to Switzerland as a

whole but local real estate markets vary

widely Average annual increases in condo-

Residential real estate

300

250275

175150

200225

100125

98 04 06 080200 1080 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

House prices not overheated overall

Sources BFS Wuumlest amp Partner UBS WMR

House prices compared to rent and disposable income (1980 = 100)

Consumer pricesHouse prices Zurich reg

House prices SwitzerlRental apt Switzerland

House prices Lake GenevaDisposable income

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 11

minium prices since 2000 range from 3 per-

cent for the Berne region to 8 percent for the

Lake Geneva region (Switzerland 42 per-

cent) At these rates real estate prices will

need 24 years to double in the Berne region

but only nine years in the Lake Geneva region

In fact Lake Geneva prices would sextuple in

24 years if growth were to remain un-

changed This simple calculation shows that

Lake Genevarsquos trend is clearly unsustainable

Housing prices are still skyrocketing despite

the general desire for a slowdown In the

third quarter of 2010 transaction prices rose

73 percent year-on-year for condominiums in

Switzerland (Lake Geneva 10 percent Zurich

87 percent Central Switzerland 81 percent)

and 3 percent for single-family houses (Lake

Geneva 57 percent Zurich 41 percent

Central Switzerland 47 percent) Prices failed

to decline in any metropolitan region

Threat level seven

Aggregating the data reveals two important

trends Home prices still largely refl ect the

long-term economic fundamentals for Swit-

zerland as a whole At the same time how-

ever some regions are frothier than the Swiss

average particularly the communities sur-

rounding Lake Geneva Lake Zurich and Lake

Zug and several high-end resort areas south

of the Alps It would be irresponsible to treat

these territories as only isolated trouble spots

for the Swiss real estate market History has

shown that price corrections can trigger un-

predictable domino eff ects across several re-

gions Thus the threat level should be raised

for the entire Swiss real estate market Since

economics (still) has no threat levels for cat-

egorizing the severity of a real estate bubble

we shall use the meteorological Beaufort

scale which classifi es wind speed from 0

(calm) to 12 (hurricane) We would currently

set the metaphorical threat level at

seven ldquohigh windrdquo The description reads

ldquoWhole trees in motion Eff ort needed to

walk against the windrdquo

Residential real estate

1412

810

20

46

ndash4ndash2

09 1187 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

Mortgage loan growth not excessive

Sources SNB BFS UBS WMR

Change in ratio of mortgage volume to populationGDP in percent

Mortgage volume population Mortgage volume GDP (nominal)

UBS real estate focus January 201112

The rental apartment market is stable

and harbors upside potential Prices for

multi-family dwellings have made com-

mercial properties increasingly attractive

to investors

The cooler economy and slightly lower immi-

gration had no notable impact on overall

housing demand The number of apartments

under construction in Switzerland tapered off

marginally during the recession but has not

reached a turning point by any means Low

interest rates also supported construction in

2010 Over 70000 apartments were under

construction at the end of the third quarter of

2010 This is a record and almost 12 percent

higher than in 2009 The number of building

permits indicated that construction activity

will drop slightly in 2011 Given the recent

improvements in the economic environment

no signifi cant increase in vacancy rates is ex-

pected Switzerland has the lowest vacancy

rate in Europe at 09 percent

Scarcity drives rent increases

Low vacancy rates in urban areas have sup-

ported the growth in rents Switzerland as

a whole saw rents increase by an average of

2 percent in the fi rst three quarters of 2010

although performance varied widely between

regions Near Lake Geneva nominal rents

rose nearly 7 percent those in southern Swit-

zerland went up around 31 percent In other

major regions rents only increased by 08 to

16 percent during the same period Rents will

probably increase further given the economic

environment but each region should always

be analyzed separately Despite continued

construction in Zurich demographic trends

should soak up the additional supply A swell-

ing population in the Geneva region is facing

a very scarce supply which is driving up rents

More rural regions such as the Jura and parts

of Central Switzerland will see rents fall

Careful analysis of investments

Yield-seeking investors have buoyed invest-

ment demand Many have focused on rental

apartments and thus have raised prices for

existing multi-family dwellings While the rent-

al apartment market does not appear over-

heated among professional investors we still

recommend carefully analyzing prospective

investments We expect this yearrsquos overall

appreciation return on multi-family dwellings

to remain on par with prior years Since the

economy is expected to improve we assume

rising rents will push up commercial property

valuations This could enable commercial real

estate to outperform multi-family dwellings

in 2012

Rental apartments ndash steady returns

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Residential real estate

Overview of residential properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Residential construction and vacancies 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Net increase in number of homes 45 000 42 000 38 977 44 717 38 255

Residential vacancy rate 10 09 09 10 10

Rental apartments

Asking prices for rental apartments 15 17 35 42 31

Asking prices for new rental apartments ndash15 ndash12 ndash45 15 38

Price index for passing rents 10 11 24 25 17

Mortgage reference interest rate 5 30 28 30 35 ndash

Number of vacant rental apartments 31 000 28 947 26 343 28 138 29 567

Performance on residential direct investment 50 50 53 61 564

Owner-occupied homes

Asking prices for condominiums 30 49 64 41 42

Closing prices for condominiums 25 59 33 47 44

Asking prices for single-family homes 25 47 50 27 30

Closing prices for single-family homes 15 23 04 38 27

Variable mortgage interest rate all banks 5 30 27 27 28 33

Growth in mortgage loans all banks 45 51 49 34 41

Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end

UBS real estate focus January 2011 13

Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory

The taxation of imputed rental values as

income is controversial For years there

have been heated discussions about this

issue Last summer the Federal Council

threw its hat in the ring supporting a

total abolition of the tax in order to sim-

plify the tax code

In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-

sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-

tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The

Federal Council rejected the initiative and now

aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-

ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-

posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-

tions on private interest payments with certain

exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer

be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-

ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-

tion measures

Root of the problem taxing imputed

rental values

Interestingly the endless debate about IRV

taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and

other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-

ed as parts of one indivisible system However

we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-

nomic eff ects by examining each component

separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents

the rent revenues that homeowners could the-

oretically earn if they rented out their home on

the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-

ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-

ants and homeowners on an equal footing on

the premise that homeowners are better off

economically since they live rent-free

This is a specious argument in our view First

tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-

ment risk for their home and no opportunity

costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on

assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-

ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo

risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies

a he y property gains tax on any capital gains

Losses by contrast are fully borne by the

property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor

job of evening the odds between tenants and

homeowners Simply consider how IRV are

determined There are few comparable proper-

ties particularly for single-family homes and

luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-

sible to calculate the market rents that underlie

the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and

sometimes quite complicated assessment

methods to calculate IRV This violates classic

tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be

both simple and transparent

Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other

side of the coin

What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-

tem the deductions for mortgage interest and

maintenance expenses As the law stands the

tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners

to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-

pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-

ment could be more pragmatic about mort-

gage interest There are three main reasons

why deductions for owner-occupied homes

should be eliminated in our opinion as the

Federal Council is essentially proposing to do

First the deductions give households an incen-

tive to take on too much debt While this is not

necessarily bad in itself it is still not something

the government should be expressly encourag-

ing Second allowing income tax deductions

for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-

errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and

thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-

owners can claim larger interest deductions

thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by

contrast bear the full interest rate risk under

current tenant-landlord law through the refer-

ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair

to permit homeowners to claim deductions for

Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated

Source UBS WMR

Impact of home ownership on income tax

Taxable income WITHOUT home ownership

Taxable income WITH home ownership

+ Imputed rental valuendash Maintenance costsndash Mortgage interest

Current system of taxes on home ownership

In focus Residential real estate

Claudio Saputelli

Analyst UBS AG

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201114

The leverage formula is decisive

Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder

whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-

tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve

return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the

current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term

investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-

ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the

mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are

equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-

ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we

strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their

eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio

Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and

other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not

concentrating all your assets in your home

living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a

single cent

Dubious exceptions from interest

deductions

The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its

constitutional mandate to encourage home

ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-

ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up

to a certain franc limit over 10 years This

ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-

efi t high-income households which obviously

misses the point and should therefore be re-

considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-

rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest

income could still off set mortgage interest

against the full amount of their interest in-

come This is also a one-sided policy that large-

ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-

gage interest from their taxable interest and

securities income

The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-

come tax deductions for maintenance costs as

well as private mortgage interest This is a step

in the right direction A er all tenants do not

receive tax breaks on their living expenses

However the Federal Council is making excep-

tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency

and environmental protection measures that

meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very

labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-

ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for

each individual homeowner A more effi cient

method would directly subsidize eco-friendly

energy systems and construction materials

The tax on imputed rental values

should be abolished

The current tax on IRV makes little economic

sense in our view If it were abolished there

would be no need for many deductions and

exceptions which is why we think the govern-

ment should simplify the tax code by com-

pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership

That way homeowners can preserve both their

homes and their sanity around tax time

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 2011 15

Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game

An estimated 520000 withdrawals have

been made from retirement accounts since

1995 The withdrawn capital is expected

to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010

The possible impact on future retirement

benefi ts remains unknown but the risks

should not be ignored

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-

ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August

1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home

ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely

low compared to other countries Raising it is

an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also

policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-

ter when they claimed the low home owner-

ship rate showed too little was being done to

reach the political goal of widespread home

ownership among the population

Swiss home ownership rate remains low

The home ownership rate was 31 percent in

1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-

ership encouragement law began to allow

prospective home buyers to pledge and with-

draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-

manently occupied homes were owner-occu-

pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now

puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent

In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared

to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in

Italy

Why the low ownership rate First condo-

minium ownership was not introduced to

Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss

rental apartment market is relatively effi cient

compared to other countries which dulls the

incentive to own a home So what caused

the spike in the home ownership rate in the

1990s In that decade home prices fell a er

the real estate bubble burst declining sharply

relative to national income Third Switzer-

landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older

ndash the cohort where home ownership is most

common Finally people have been free to

pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-

sets for home purchases since 1995 However

it is not clear whether this statutory option

has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a

bandwagon eff ect

Occupational pensions unsuitable for

encouraging home ownership

The explicit goal of the occupational pension

system ndash established in 1985 to supplement

the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system

(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of

living when the policyholder retires dies or

becomes disabled As fully funded schemes

occupational pensions represent the most

politically attractive pot of money for encour-

aging home ownership Withdrawing pension

assets however does more than reduce

future retirement benefi ts It can also lower

death and disability benefi ts if they depend

on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned

contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals

are a poor vehicle for encouraging home

ownership since they clearly undermine the

main purpose of occupational pensions to

provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in

retirement age

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as

follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves

the purpose of occupational pensions because

living expenses represent one of the largest

costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow

It ignores the need to distribute investment

risks and choose assets that off er security and

an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-

eral Act on Occupational Pensions People

who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-

Thomas Veraguth

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

In focus Residential real estate

350040004500

3000

15001000

20002500

0500

4500040000

3000035000

1500010000

2000025000

05000

0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003

Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR

Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995

Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)

Total annual amount in CHF million

UBS real estate focus January 201116

posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and

considerable risks of the real estate market for

years at a time

Total sum withdrawn remains low

The statistics tell a nuanced story of how

withdrawals are being used to fi nance home

purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-

al pension schemes has nearly doubled since

1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in

2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-

lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs

withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-

resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in

occupational pension schemes over the past

15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-

count for around 05 percent of the total capi-

tal invested in occupational pensions By com-

parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the

single-family homes and condominiums in

Switzerland had an aggregate market value of

124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages

taken out by private households amounted to

566 billion francs in September 2010

The withdrawal statistics also harbor another

surprise the continuity of the amounts with-

drawn The average withdrawal has remained

within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000

Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked

in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-

sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for

680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-

counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred

by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of

annuities and lump-sum payments and 167

percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and

cash payments The 2009 percentages were

roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively

Moderation is key

From an economic perspective certain poten-

tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-

sion to allow consumers to make early pen-

sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily

consumers have exercised considerable self-

restraint as indicated by the data on the

number of withdrawals and total money with-

drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all

members of occupational pension schemes

make withdrawals each year This is in part

due to restrictions inserted in the legislation

by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals

As a result we are cautiously optimistic about

the future of home fi nancing but recommend

pledges over withdrawals

In focus Residential real estate

Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals

Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since

1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to

prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes

make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-

portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are

nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-

ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common

for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However

there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys

by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-

theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-

ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home

Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of

Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-

ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007

For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed

carefully when purchasing a home

UBS real estate focus January 2011 17

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for

greater comfort and higher living stand-

ards Already established abroad this

model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-

zerland

Greater prosperity and a steadily growing

number of small households are driving demand

for new models of living with integrated ser-

vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-

nants and senior citizens The upper middle

class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income

no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free

time on tedious errands or exhausting chores

Even young families are increasingly discovering

the modelrsquos benefi ts

Growing importance of new models

of living

Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-

ing needs Over the years we have seen the

emergence of nursing homes independent liv-

ing and assisted-living communities There is

now an even richer more diverse menu of

options ranging from boarding houses to full-

service living While this latest model may re-

main a niche product for several years we think

demand will stay strong for the foreseeable

future thanks to demographic change growing

interest in support and services and a greater

overall need for higher living standards Of-

ferings need to be aligned with target group

needs and interests though Our experience

with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project

shows that models should be tailored to both

the target group and local conditions

James ndash Full-service Living

The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the

brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-

erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the

fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex

in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009

the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-

sion Fund Assets built a second James complex

in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-

four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-

cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third

James complex is under construction in Winter-

thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-

2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-

ping thanks to a direct connection between the

roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center

restaurants and a parking garage

The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects

todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not

only modern communication technologies (In-

ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-

tion (James is physically on the premises) At a

James complex rent includes a wide array of

concierge services such as receiving guests

accepting packages and purchases or reserving

concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to

mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services

such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet

care plant watering or vacation service These

services are billed separately under a pay-as-

you-go scheme

Components of full-service living

Home concierge services are new to Switzer-

land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-

nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it

mainly designates French superintendents or

caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-

cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-

sive personal services for tenants and visitors as

well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-

tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-

yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-

ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The

James concept embraces this principle When

tenants and visitors enter a James apartment

complex it should be readily apparent that this

is more than just a place to live The James ndash

Full-service Living concept can also adapt to

Patric Caillat

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Possible concept for full-service living

Source UBS GRE Switzerland

The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo

Living as a core service

Basic services included in rent

Agrave la carte services

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 201118

residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time

thanks to its extensive modular service off ering

The program is based on three components

residential use integrated basic services and

additional agrave la carte services

The apartment is the core service and as such

must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in

terms of location infrastructure amenities and

aesthetics The rent must also include several

basic services that are important to the target

groups This diff erentiates James from a regular

apartment complex Residents can also use

many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply

pick the services they need and pay for them

separately which makes the apartment some-

thing like a hotel To be successful the concept

has to combine these elements intelligently

while taking local circumstances into account

Other models on the market

Several models with slightly diff erent approach-

es have been launched in recent years Besides

James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-

set Management other full-service models in-

clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real

Estate Asset Management department and

ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG

Combining services with attractive living can

give a property its own unique character and

ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps

support intelligent real estate marketing How-

ever full-service living can only work if the

services benefi t users operators and owners

alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-

perience with such models it certainly has the

conditions and outlook needed to achieve a

win-win situation

Added value at an attractive price

ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work

users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat

value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to

tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er

all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-

cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go

scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start

Who is the target audience What services do they want While this

might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos

success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are

handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts

will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-

tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo

changing needs

In focus Residential real estate

Commercial real estate and special uses

The market separates the wheat from the chaff

UBS real estate focus January 201120

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in rela-

tively good shape We expect price pres-

sure from tenants to widen the perform-

ance gap between central and peripheral

locations

Offi ce space is the most important sector of

the Swiss commercial real estate market The

commercial property market was estimated

to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end

of 2009 according to Investment Property

Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this

total was offi ce space while retail properties

made up 377 percent and industrial real es-

tate 35 percent

Stable demand factors

Besides being large the offi ce property seg-

ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-

ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the

total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of

Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and

business services represent over 18 percent of

total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-

centage compared to other countries The

Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-

where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-

tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-

tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos

growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still

remained positive Part-time employment is

also becoming more widespread in Switzer-

land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies

are focusing on boosting employee productiv-

ity Future employment growth looks likely to

be moderate as a result

Rising importance of quality

The prospect of slow but positive employment

growth highlights the importance of analyzing

the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates

range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is

moderate compared to other countries and has

recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In

crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found

that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce

completions have been much higher in Ger-

man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-

zerland in recent years In 201112 around

150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the

market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2

in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the

various kinds of offi ce space on the market For

example we are skeptical about the medium-

term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-

erties (poor access to transportation and low

availability of services) on the periphery of cit-

ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-

geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-

ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be

strong expanding the labor market companies

still need to provide attractive workplaces for

their employees Easily accessible central offi ce

locations will gain even more importance Un-

der these pressures the offi ce market should

start to more clearly separate the wheat from

the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce

space is scarce should perform well while

non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle

to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral

locations will be squeezed since they are main-

ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce

functions Through renovation or new con-

structions in contrast downtown locations

should see further appreciation and attractive

returns For this reason we think rents for

high-end offi ce space should rise further

Positive appreciation rate

Despite falling interest rates and government

bond yields initial yields in the institutional

offi ce segment have hardly budged according

to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and

2009 In contrast to many European real estate

markets the appreciation rate is still positively

Commercial real estate and special uses

5

34

0ndash1

12

ndash3ndash2

2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

No drop in employment in Switzerland

Source Experian Business Services June 2010

Employment growth in financial and business services in percent

SwitzerlandEU15

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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UseObjectSettings Namespace [ (Adobe) (CreativeSuite) (20) ] PDFXOutputIntentProfileSelector DocumentCMYK PageMarksFile RomanDefault PreserveEditing true UntaggedCMYKHandling UseDocumentProfile UntaggedRGBHandling UseDocumentProfile UseDocumentBleed false gtgt ]gtgt setdistillerparamsltlt HWResolution [144 144] PageSize [612000 792000]gtgt setpagedevice

Page 9: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

Residential real estate

The Swiss property market is not overheated overall but vigilance is still warranted

UBS real estate focus January 201110

Homes ndash elevated threat level

Home prices continue to soar This up-

ward trend has not fl attened out as ex-

pected in previous quarters The public is

increasingly worried about a real estate

bubble ndash with some justifi cation Caution

is advised

Meteorological language is o en razor-sharp

Fog is ldquodenserdquo when visibility is less than a

quarter of a mile Gentle rain is a ldquodrizzlerdquo if

the water droplets have diameters between

02 and 05 millimeters The sky is ldquoovercastrdquo

if clouds cover over nine-tenths of it but only

ldquocloudyrdquo if they cover seven-tenths No won-

der economists o en envy meteorology for its

crisp terminology Their fi eld is much fuzzier

For example no economist can identify the

exact criteria that defi ne a real estate bubble

Experts agree that real estate is somehow

heavily overvalued in a bubble but cannot say

how much or how long prices have to in-

crease before a hot market becomes a full-

blown bubble

Real estate bubbles are usually followed by a

rapid dramatic fall in prices Not even this

criterion though provides a tangible defi ni-

tion of a real estate bubble Because bubbles

are not governed by any quantifi able criteria

the public and even experts are far too quick

to label many buoyant markets ldquobubblesrdquo

This has been happening in Switzerland since

early last year a er a recent steep spike in

home prices Letrsquos consider the facts The

Swiss property market began its rise in 1998

Condominium prices have climbed 56 percent

since then while single-family home prices

have gained 37 percent according to the

Wuumlest amp Partner indexes Is this sustainable

To fi nd out economists compare home prices

to three factors rents infl ation and income

Condominiums less aff ordable

Rental apartments are valid substitutes for

houses thanks to Switzerlandrsquos mature body

of landlord-tenant law so excessive discrep-

ancies between the two price trends can indi-

cate market imbalances In the past 12 years

rents rose by roughly the same percentage as

prices for single-family houses The diver-

gence though visible was insignifi cant given

the period of time and diff erences in quality

Rental apartments tend to be older lower-

cost properties while the interior quality of

condominiums has recently improved dramati-

cally As for the infl ation comparison count-

less international studies have shown that

infl ation-adjusted property prices are stagnant

over the long term This was certainly the case

in the Swiss house market between 1970 and

2000

Real estate prices have signifi cantly outpaced

infl ation since 2000 though leaving a worry-

ing gap between the two curves Theoreti-

cally the maximum potential drop in home

prices is the current diff erence between the

curves 33 percent for condominiums and

26 percent for single-family houses Another

well-regarded economic approach by con-

trast links the long-term home price trend to

disposable household income This is called

ldquohousing aff ordabilityrdquo If real estate prices

rise faster than disposable income this ap-

proach says that homes are less aff ordable for

households Demand weakens and prices fall

Average disposable income in Switzerland has

risen by roughly 35 percent since 1998 So

while the aff ordability of single-family houses

in Switzerland has remained more or less

steady during this period it has fallen consid-

erably for condominiums

Large regional discrepancies

This fi nding only applies to Switzerland as a

whole but local real estate markets vary

widely Average annual increases in condo-

Residential real estate

300

250275

175150

200225

100125

98 04 06 080200 1080 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

House prices not overheated overall

Sources BFS Wuumlest amp Partner UBS WMR

House prices compared to rent and disposable income (1980 = 100)

Consumer pricesHouse prices Zurich reg

House prices SwitzerlRental apt Switzerland

House prices Lake GenevaDisposable income

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 11

minium prices since 2000 range from 3 per-

cent for the Berne region to 8 percent for the

Lake Geneva region (Switzerland 42 per-

cent) At these rates real estate prices will

need 24 years to double in the Berne region

but only nine years in the Lake Geneva region

In fact Lake Geneva prices would sextuple in

24 years if growth were to remain un-

changed This simple calculation shows that

Lake Genevarsquos trend is clearly unsustainable

Housing prices are still skyrocketing despite

the general desire for a slowdown In the

third quarter of 2010 transaction prices rose

73 percent year-on-year for condominiums in

Switzerland (Lake Geneva 10 percent Zurich

87 percent Central Switzerland 81 percent)

and 3 percent for single-family houses (Lake

Geneva 57 percent Zurich 41 percent

Central Switzerland 47 percent) Prices failed

to decline in any metropolitan region

Threat level seven

Aggregating the data reveals two important

trends Home prices still largely refl ect the

long-term economic fundamentals for Swit-

zerland as a whole At the same time how-

ever some regions are frothier than the Swiss

average particularly the communities sur-

rounding Lake Geneva Lake Zurich and Lake

Zug and several high-end resort areas south

of the Alps It would be irresponsible to treat

these territories as only isolated trouble spots

for the Swiss real estate market History has

shown that price corrections can trigger un-

predictable domino eff ects across several re-

gions Thus the threat level should be raised

for the entire Swiss real estate market Since

economics (still) has no threat levels for cat-

egorizing the severity of a real estate bubble

we shall use the meteorological Beaufort

scale which classifi es wind speed from 0

(calm) to 12 (hurricane) We would currently

set the metaphorical threat level at

seven ldquohigh windrdquo The description reads

ldquoWhole trees in motion Eff ort needed to

walk against the windrdquo

Residential real estate

1412

810

20

46

ndash4ndash2

09 1187 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

Mortgage loan growth not excessive

Sources SNB BFS UBS WMR

Change in ratio of mortgage volume to populationGDP in percent

Mortgage volume population Mortgage volume GDP (nominal)

UBS real estate focus January 201112

The rental apartment market is stable

and harbors upside potential Prices for

multi-family dwellings have made com-

mercial properties increasingly attractive

to investors

The cooler economy and slightly lower immi-

gration had no notable impact on overall

housing demand The number of apartments

under construction in Switzerland tapered off

marginally during the recession but has not

reached a turning point by any means Low

interest rates also supported construction in

2010 Over 70000 apartments were under

construction at the end of the third quarter of

2010 This is a record and almost 12 percent

higher than in 2009 The number of building

permits indicated that construction activity

will drop slightly in 2011 Given the recent

improvements in the economic environment

no signifi cant increase in vacancy rates is ex-

pected Switzerland has the lowest vacancy

rate in Europe at 09 percent

Scarcity drives rent increases

Low vacancy rates in urban areas have sup-

ported the growth in rents Switzerland as

a whole saw rents increase by an average of

2 percent in the fi rst three quarters of 2010

although performance varied widely between

regions Near Lake Geneva nominal rents

rose nearly 7 percent those in southern Swit-

zerland went up around 31 percent In other

major regions rents only increased by 08 to

16 percent during the same period Rents will

probably increase further given the economic

environment but each region should always

be analyzed separately Despite continued

construction in Zurich demographic trends

should soak up the additional supply A swell-

ing population in the Geneva region is facing

a very scarce supply which is driving up rents

More rural regions such as the Jura and parts

of Central Switzerland will see rents fall

Careful analysis of investments

Yield-seeking investors have buoyed invest-

ment demand Many have focused on rental

apartments and thus have raised prices for

existing multi-family dwellings While the rent-

al apartment market does not appear over-

heated among professional investors we still

recommend carefully analyzing prospective

investments We expect this yearrsquos overall

appreciation return on multi-family dwellings

to remain on par with prior years Since the

economy is expected to improve we assume

rising rents will push up commercial property

valuations This could enable commercial real

estate to outperform multi-family dwellings

in 2012

Rental apartments ndash steady returns

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Residential real estate

Overview of residential properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Residential construction and vacancies 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Net increase in number of homes 45 000 42 000 38 977 44 717 38 255

Residential vacancy rate 10 09 09 10 10

Rental apartments

Asking prices for rental apartments 15 17 35 42 31

Asking prices for new rental apartments ndash15 ndash12 ndash45 15 38

Price index for passing rents 10 11 24 25 17

Mortgage reference interest rate 5 30 28 30 35 ndash

Number of vacant rental apartments 31 000 28 947 26 343 28 138 29 567

Performance on residential direct investment 50 50 53 61 564

Owner-occupied homes

Asking prices for condominiums 30 49 64 41 42

Closing prices for condominiums 25 59 33 47 44

Asking prices for single-family homes 25 47 50 27 30

Closing prices for single-family homes 15 23 04 38 27

Variable mortgage interest rate all banks 5 30 27 27 28 33

Growth in mortgage loans all banks 45 51 49 34 41

Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end

UBS real estate focus January 2011 13

Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory

The taxation of imputed rental values as

income is controversial For years there

have been heated discussions about this

issue Last summer the Federal Council

threw its hat in the ring supporting a

total abolition of the tax in order to sim-

plify the tax code

In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-

sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-

tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The

Federal Council rejected the initiative and now

aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-

ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-

posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-

tions on private interest payments with certain

exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer

be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-

ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-

tion measures

Root of the problem taxing imputed

rental values

Interestingly the endless debate about IRV

taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and

other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-

ed as parts of one indivisible system However

we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-

nomic eff ects by examining each component

separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents

the rent revenues that homeowners could the-

oretically earn if they rented out their home on

the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-

ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-

ants and homeowners on an equal footing on

the premise that homeowners are better off

economically since they live rent-free

This is a specious argument in our view First

tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-

ment risk for their home and no opportunity

costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on

assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-

ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo

risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies

a he y property gains tax on any capital gains

Losses by contrast are fully borne by the

property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor

job of evening the odds between tenants and

homeowners Simply consider how IRV are

determined There are few comparable proper-

ties particularly for single-family homes and

luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-

sible to calculate the market rents that underlie

the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and

sometimes quite complicated assessment

methods to calculate IRV This violates classic

tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be

both simple and transparent

Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other

side of the coin

What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-

tem the deductions for mortgage interest and

maintenance expenses As the law stands the

tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners

to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-

pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-

ment could be more pragmatic about mort-

gage interest There are three main reasons

why deductions for owner-occupied homes

should be eliminated in our opinion as the

Federal Council is essentially proposing to do

First the deductions give households an incen-

tive to take on too much debt While this is not

necessarily bad in itself it is still not something

the government should be expressly encourag-

ing Second allowing income tax deductions

for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-

errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and

thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-

owners can claim larger interest deductions

thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by

contrast bear the full interest rate risk under

current tenant-landlord law through the refer-

ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair

to permit homeowners to claim deductions for

Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated

Source UBS WMR

Impact of home ownership on income tax

Taxable income WITHOUT home ownership

Taxable income WITH home ownership

+ Imputed rental valuendash Maintenance costsndash Mortgage interest

Current system of taxes on home ownership

In focus Residential real estate

Claudio Saputelli

Analyst UBS AG

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201114

The leverage formula is decisive

Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder

whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-

tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve

return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the

current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term

investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-

ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the

mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are

equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-

ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we

strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their

eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio

Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and

other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not

concentrating all your assets in your home

living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a

single cent

Dubious exceptions from interest

deductions

The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its

constitutional mandate to encourage home

ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-

ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up

to a certain franc limit over 10 years This

ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-

efi t high-income households which obviously

misses the point and should therefore be re-

considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-

rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest

income could still off set mortgage interest

against the full amount of their interest in-

come This is also a one-sided policy that large-

ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-

gage interest from their taxable interest and

securities income

The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-

come tax deductions for maintenance costs as

well as private mortgage interest This is a step

in the right direction A er all tenants do not

receive tax breaks on their living expenses

However the Federal Council is making excep-

tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency

and environmental protection measures that

meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very

labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-

ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for

each individual homeowner A more effi cient

method would directly subsidize eco-friendly

energy systems and construction materials

The tax on imputed rental values

should be abolished

The current tax on IRV makes little economic

sense in our view If it were abolished there

would be no need for many deductions and

exceptions which is why we think the govern-

ment should simplify the tax code by com-

pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership

That way homeowners can preserve both their

homes and their sanity around tax time

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 2011 15

Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game

An estimated 520000 withdrawals have

been made from retirement accounts since

1995 The withdrawn capital is expected

to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010

The possible impact on future retirement

benefi ts remains unknown but the risks

should not be ignored

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-

ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August

1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home

ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely

low compared to other countries Raising it is

an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also

policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-

ter when they claimed the low home owner-

ship rate showed too little was being done to

reach the political goal of widespread home

ownership among the population

Swiss home ownership rate remains low

The home ownership rate was 31 percent in

1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-

ership encouragement law began to allow

prospective home buyers to pledge and with-

draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-

manently occupied homes were owner-occu-

pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now

puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent

In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared

to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in

Italy

Why the low ownership rate First condo-

minium ownership was not introduced to

Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss

rental apartment market is relatively effi cient

compared to other countries which dulls the

incentive to own a home So what caused

the spike in the home ownership rate in the

1990s In that decade home prices fell a er

the real estate bubble burst declining sharply

relative to national income Third Switzer-

landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older

ndash the cohort where home ownership is most

common Finally people have been free to

pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-

sets for home purchases since 1995 However

it is not clear whether this statutory option

has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a

bandwagon eff ect

Occupational pensions unsuitable for

encouraging home ownership

The explicit goal of the occupational pension

system ndash established in 1985 to supplement

the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system

(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of

living when the policyholder retires dies or

becomes disabled As fully funded schemes

occupational pensions represent the most

politically attractive pot of money for encour-

aging home ownership Withdrawing pension

assets however does more than reduce

future retirement benefi ts It can also lower

death and disability benefi ts if they depend

on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned

contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals

are a poor vehicle for encouraging home

ownership since they clearly undermine the

main purpose of occupational pensions to

provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in

retirement age

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as

follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves

the purpose of occupational pensions because

living expenses represent one of the largest

costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow

It ignores the need to distribute investment

risks and choose assets that off er security and

an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-

eral Act on Occupational Pensions People

who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-

Thomas Veraguth

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

In focus Residential real estate

350040004500

3000

15001000

20002500

0500

4500040000

3000035000

1500010000

2000025000

05000

0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003

Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR

Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995

Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)

Total annual amount in CHF million

UBS real estate focus January 201116

posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and

considerable risks of the real estate market for

years at a time

Total sum withdrawn remains low

The statistics tell a nuanced story of how

withdrawals are being used to fi nance home

purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-

al pension schemes has nearly doubled since

1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in

2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-

lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs

withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-

resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in

occupational pension schemes over the past

15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-

count for around 05 percent of the total capi-

tal invested in occupational pensions By com-

parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the

single-family homes and condominiums in

Switzerland had an aggregate market value of

124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages

taken out by private households amounted to

566 billion francs in September 2010

The withdrawal statistics also harbor another

surprise the continuity of the amounts with-

drawn The average withdrawal has remained

within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000

Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked

in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-

sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for

680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-

counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred

by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of

annuities and lump-sum payments and 167

percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and

cash payments The 2009 percentages were

roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively

Moderation is key

From an economic perspective certain poten-

tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-

sion to allow consumers to make early pen-

sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily

consumers have exercised considerable self-

restraint as indicated by the data on the

number of withdrawals and total money with-

drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all

members of occupational pension schemes

make withdrawals each year This is in part

due to restrictions inserted in the legislation

by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals

As a result we are cautiously optimistic about

the future of home fi nancing but recommend

pledges over withdrawals

In focus Residential real estate

Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals

Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since

1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to

prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes

make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-

portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are

nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-

ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common

for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However

there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys

by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-

theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-

ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home

Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of

Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-

ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007

For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed

carefully when purchasing a home

UBS real estate focus January 2011 17

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for

greater comfort and higher living stand-

ards Already established abroad this

model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-

zerland

Greater prosperity and a steadily growing

number of small households are driving demand

for new models of living with integrated ser-

vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-

nants and senior citizens The upper middle

class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income

no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free

time on tedious errands or exhausting chores

Even young families are increasingly discovering

the modelrsquos benefi ts

Growing importance of new models

of living

Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-

ing needs Over the years we have seen the

emergence of nursing homes independent liv-

ing and assisted-living communities There is

now an even richer more diverse menu of

options ranging from boarding houses to full-

service living While this latest model may re-

main a niche product for several years we think

demand will stay strong for the foreseeable

future thanks to demographic change growing

interest in support and services and a greater

overall need for higher living standards Of-

ferings need to be aligned with target group

needs and interests though Our experience

with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project

shows that models should be tailored to both

the target group and local conditions

James ndash Full-service Living

The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the

brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-

erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the

fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex

in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009

the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-

sion Fund Assets built a second James complex

in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-

four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-

cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third

James complex is under construction in Winter-

thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-

2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-

ping thanks to a direct connection between the

roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center

restaurants and a parking garage

The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects

todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not

only modern communication technologies (In-

ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-

tion (James is physically on the premises) At a

James complex rent includes a wide array of

concierge services such as receiving guests

accepting packages and purchases or reserving

concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to

mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services

such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet

care plant watering or vacation service These

services are billed separately under a pay-as-

you-go scheme

Components of full-service living

Home concierge services are new to Switzer-

land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-

nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it

mainly designates French superintendents or

caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-

cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-

sive personal services for tenants and visitors as

well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-

tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-

yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-

ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The

James concept embraces this principle When

tenants and visitors enter a James apartment

complex it should be readily apparent that this

is more than just a place to live The James ndash

Full-service Living concept can also adapt to

Patric Caillat

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Possible concept for full-service living

Source UBS GRE Switzerland

The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo

Living as a core service

Basic services included in rent

Agrave la carte services

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 201118

residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time

thanks to its extensive modular service off ering

The program is based on three components

residential use integrated basic services and

additional agrave la carte services

The apartment is the core service and as such

must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in

terms of location infrastructure amenities and

aesthetics The rent must also include several

basic services that are important to the target

groups This diff erentiates James from a regular

apartment complex Residents can also use

many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply

pick the services they need and pay for them

separately which makes the apartment some-

thing like a hotel To be successful the concept

has to combine these elements intelligently

while taking local circumstances into account

Other models on the market

Several models with slightly diff erent approach-

es have been launched in recent years Besides

James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-

set Management other full-service models in-

clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real

Estate Asset Management department and

ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG

Combining services with attractive living can

give a property its own unique character and

ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps

support intelligent real estate marketing How-

ever full-service living can only work if the

services benefi t users operators and owners

alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-

perience with such models it certainly has the

conditions and outlook needed to achieve a

win-win situation

Added value at an attractive price

ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work

users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat

value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to

tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er

all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-

cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go

scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start

Who is the target audience What services do they want While this

might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos

success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are

handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts

will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-

tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo

changing needs

In focus Residential real estate

Commercial real estate and special uses

The market separates the wheat from the chaff

UBS real estate focus January 201120

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in rela-

tively good shape We expect price pres-

sure from tenants to widen the perform-

ance gap between central and peripheral

locations

Offi ce space is the most important sector of

the Swiss commercial real estate market The

commercial property market was estimated

to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end

of 2009 according to Investment Property

Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this

total was offi ce space while retail properties

made up 377 percent and industrial real es-

tate 35 percent

Stable demand factors

Besides being large the offi ce property seg-

ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-

ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the

total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of

Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and

business services represent over 18 percent of

total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-

centage compared to other countries The

Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-

where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-

tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-

tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos

growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still

remained positive Part-time employment is

also becoming more widespread in Switzer-

land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies

are focusing on boosting employee productiv-

ity Future employment growth looks likely to

be moderate as a result

Rising importance of quality

The prospect of slow but positive employment

growth highlights the importance of analyzing

the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates

range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is

moderate compared to other countries and has

recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In

crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found

that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce

completions have been much higher in Ger-

man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-

zerland in recent years In 201112 around

150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the

market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2

in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the

various kinds of offi ce space on the market For

example we are skeptical about the medium-

term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-

erties (poor access to transportation and low

availability of services) on the periphery of cit-

ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-

geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-

ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be

strong expanding the labor market companies

still need to provide attractive workplaces for

their employees Easily accessible central offi ce

locations will gain even more importance Un-

der these pressures the offi ce market should

start to more clearly separate the wheat from

the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce

space is scarce should perform well while

non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle

to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral

locations will be squeezed since they are main-

ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce

functions Through renovation or new con-

structions in contrast downtown locations

should see further appreciation and attractive

returns For this reason we think rents for

high-end offi ce space should rise further

Positive appreciation rate

Despite falling interest rates and government

bond yields initial yields in the institutional

offi ce segment have hardly budged according

to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and

2009 In contrast to many European real estate

markets the appreciation rate is still positively

Commercial real estate and special uses

5

34

0ndash1

12

ndash3ndash2

2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

No drop in employment in Switzerland

Source Experian Business Services June 2010

Employment growth in financial and business services in percent

SwitzerlandEU15

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 10: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 201110

Homes ndash elevated threat level

Home prices continue to soar This up-

ward trend has not fl attened out as ex-

pected in previous quarters The public is

increasingly worried about a real estate

bubble ndash with some justifi cation Caution

is advised

Meteorological language is o en razor-sharp

Fog is ldquodenserdquo when visibility is less than a

quarter of a mile Gentle rain is a ldquodrizzlerdquo if

the water droplets have diameters between

02 and 05 millimeters The sky is ldquoovercastrdquo

if clouds cover over nine-tenths of it but only

ldquocloudyrdquo if they cover seven-tenths No won-

der economists o en envy meteorology for its

crisp terminology Their fi eld is much fuzzier

For example no economist can identify the

exact criteria that defi ne a real estate bubble

Experts agree that real estate is somehow

heavily overvalued in a bubble but cannot say

how much or how long prices have to in-

crease before a hot market becomes a full-

blown bubble

Real estate bubbles are usually followed by a

rapid dramatic fall in prices Not even this

criterion though provides a tangible defi ni-

tion of a real estate bubble Because bubbles

are not governed by any quantifi able criteria

the public and even experts are far too quick

to label many buoyant markets ldquobubblesrdquo

This has been happening in Switzerland since

early last year a er a recent steep spike in

home prices Letrsquos consider the facts The

Swiss property market began its rise in 1998

Condominium prices have climbed 56 percent

since then while single-family home prices

have gained 37 percent according to the

Wuumlest amp Partner indexes Is this sustainable

To fi nd out economists compare home prices

to three factors rents infl ation and income

Condominiums less aff ordable

Rental apartments are valid substitutes for

houses thanks to Switzerlandrsquos mature body

of landlord-tenant law so excessive discrep-

ancies between the two price trends can indi-

cate market imbalances In the past 12 years

rents rose by roughly the same percentage as

prices for single-family houses The diver-

gence though visible was insignifi cant given

the period of time and diff erences in quality

Rental apartments tend to be older lower-

cost properties while the interior quality of

condominiums has recently improved dramati-

cally As for the infl ation comparison count-

less international studies have shown that

infl ation-adjusted property prices are stagnant

over the long term This was certainly the case

in the Swiss house market between 1970 and

2000

Real estate prices have signifi cantly outpaced

infl ation since 2000 though leaving a worry-

ing gap between the two curves Theoreti-

cally the maximum potential drop in home

prices is the current diff erence between the

curves 33 percent for condominiums and

26 percent for single-family houses Another

well-regarded economic approach by con-

trast links the long-term home price trend to

disposable household income This is called

ldquohousing aff ordabilityrdquo If real estate prices

rise faster than disposable income this ap-

proach says that homes are less aff ordable for

households Demand weakens and prices fall

Average disposable income in Switzerland has

risen by roughly 35 percent since 1998 So

while the aff ordability of single-family houses

in Switzerland has remained more or less

steady during this period it has fallen consid-

erably for condominiums

Large regional discrepancies

This fi nding only applies to Switzerland as a

whole but local real estate markets vary

widely Average annual increases in condo-

Residential real estate

300

250275

175150

200225

100125

98 04 06 080200 1080 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

House prices not overheated overall

Sources BFS Wuumlest amp Partner UBS WMR

House prices compared to rent and disposable income (1980 = 100)

Consumer pricesHouse prices Zurich reg

House prices SwitzerlRental apt Switzerland

House prices Lake GenevaDisposable income

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 11

minium prices since 2000 range from 3 per-

cent for the Berne region to 8 percent for the

Lake Geneva region (Switzerland 42 per-

cent) At these rates real estate prices will

need 24 years to double in the Berne region

but only nine years in the Lake Geneva region

In fact Lake Geneva prices would sextuple in

24 years if growth were to remain un-

changed This simple calculation shows that

Lake Genevarsquos trend is clearly unsustainable

Housing prices are still skyrocketing despite

the general desire for a slowdown In the

third quarter of 2010 transaction prices rose

73 percent year-on-year for condominiums in

Switzerland (Lake Geneva 10 percent Zurich

87 percent Central Switzerland 81 percent)

and 3 percent for single-family houses (Lake

Geneva 57 percent Zurich 41 percent

Central Switzerland 47 percent) Prices failed

to decline in any metropolitan region

Threat level seven

Aggregating the data reveals two important

trends Home prices still largely refl ect the

long-term economic fundamentals for Swit-

zerland as a whole At the same time how-

ever some regions are frothier than the Swiss

average particularly the communities sur-

rounding Lake Geneva Lake Zurich and Lake

Zug and several high-end resort areas south

of the Alps It would be irresponsible to treat

these territories as only isolated trouble spots

for the Swiss real estate market History has

shown that price corrections can trigger un-

predictable domino eff ects across several re-

gions Thus the threat level should be raised

for the entire Swiss real estate market Since

economics (still) has no threat levels for cat-

egorizing the severity of a real estate bubble

we shall use the meteorological Beaufort

scale which classifi es wind speed from 0

(calm) to 12 (hurricane) We would currently

set the metaphorical threat level at

seven ldquohigh windrdquo The description reads

ldquoWhole trees in motion Eff ort needed to

walk against the windrdquo

Residential real estate

1412

810

20

46

ndash4ndash2

09 1187 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

Mortgage loan growth not excessive

Sources SNB BFS UBS WMR

Change in ratio of mortgage volume to populationGDP in percent

Mortgage volume population Mortgage volume GDP (nominal)

UBS real estate focus January 201112

The rental apartment market is stable

and harbors upside potential Prices for

multi-family dwellings have made com-

mercial properties increasingly attractive

to investors

The cooler economy and slightly lower immi-

gration had no notable impact on overall

housing demand The number of apartments

under construction in Switzerland tapered off

marginally during the recession but has not

reached a turning point by any means Low

interest rates also supported construction in

2010 Over 70000 apartments were under

construction at the end of the third quarter of

2010 This is a record and almost 12 percent

higher than in 2009 The number of building

permits indicated that construction activity

will drop slightly in 2011 Given the recent

improvements in the economic environment

no signifi cant increase in vacancy rates is ex-

pected Switzerland has the lowest vacancy

rate in Europe at 09 percent

Scarcity drives rent increases

Low vacancy rates in urban areas have sup-

ported the growth in rents Switzerland as

a whole saw rents increase by an average of

2 percent in the fi rst three quarters of 2010

although performance varied widely between

regions Near Lake Geneva nominal rents

rose nearly 7 percent those in southern Swit-

zerland went up around 31 percent In other

major regions rents only increased by 08 to

16 percent during the same period Rents will

probably increase further given the economic

environment but each region should always

be analyzed separately Despite continued

construction in Zurich demographic trends

should soak up the additional supply A swell-

ing population in the Geneva region is facing

a very scarce supply which is driving up rents

More rural regions such as the Jura and parts

of Central Switzerland will see rents fall

Careful analysis of investments

Yield-seeking investors have buoyed invest-

ment demand Many have focused on rental

apartments and thus have raised prices for

existing multi-family dwellings While the rent-

al apartment market does not appear over-

heated among professional investors we still

recommend carefully analyzing prospective

investments We expect this yearrsquos overall

appreciation return on multi-family dwellings

to remain on par with prior years Since the

economy is expected to improve we assume

rising rents will push up commercial property

valuations This could enable commercial real

estate to outperform multi-family dwellings

in 2012

Rental apartments ndash steady returns

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Residential real estate

Overview of residential properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Residential construction and vacancies 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Net increase in number of homes 45 000 42 000 38 977 44 717 38 255

Residential vacancy rate 10 09 09 10 10

Rental apartments

Asking prices for rental apartments 15 17 35 42 31

Asking prices for new rental apartments ndash15 ndash12 ndash45 15 38

Price index for passing rents 10 11 24 25 17

Mortgage reference interest rate 5 30 28 30 35 ndash

Number of vacant rental apartments 31 000 28 947 26 343 28 138 29 567

Performance on residential direct investment 50 50 53 61 564

Owner-occupied homes

Asking prices for condominiums 30 49 64 41 42

Closing prices for condominiums 25 59 33 47 44

Asking prices for single-family homes 25 47 50 27 30

Closing prices for single-family homes 15 23 04 38 27

Variable mortgage interest rate all banks 5 30 27 27 28 33

Growth in mortgage loans all banks 45 51 49 34 41

Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end

UBS real estate focus January 2011 13

Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory

The taxation of imputed rental values as

income is controversial For years there

have been heated discussions about this

issue Last summer the Federal Council

threw its hat in the ring supporting a

total abolition of the tax in order to sim-

plify the tax code

In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-

sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-

tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The

Federal Council rejected the initiative and now

aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-

ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-

posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-

tions on private interest payments with certain

exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer

be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-

ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-

tion measures

Root of the problem taxing imputed

rental values

Interestingly the endless debate about IRV

taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and

other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-

ed as parts of one indivisible system However

we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-

nomic eff ects by examining each component

separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents

the rent revenues that homeowners could the-

oretically earn if they rented out their home on

the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-

ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-

ants and homeowners on an equal footing on

the premise that homeowners are better off

economically since they live rent-free

This is a specious argument in our view First

tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-

ment risk for their home and no opportunity

costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on

assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-

ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo

risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies

a he y property gains tax on any capital gains

Losses by contrast are fully borne by the

property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor

job of evening the odds between tenants and

homeowners Simply consider how IRV are

determined There are few comparable proper-

ties particularly for single-family homes and

luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-

sible to calculate the market rents that underlie

the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and

sometimes quite complicated assessment

methods to calculate IRV This violates classic

tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be

both simple and transparent

Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other

side of the coin

What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-

tem the deductions for mortgage interest and

maintenance expenses As the law stands the

tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners

to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-

pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-

ment could be more pragmatic about mort-

gage interest There are three main reasons

why deductions for owner-occupied homes

should be eliminated in our opinion as the

Federal Council is essentially proposing to do

First the deductions give households an incen-

tive to take on too much debt While this is not

necessarily bad in itself it is still not something

the government should be expressly encourag-

ing Second allowing income tax deductions

for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-

errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and

thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-

owners can claim larger interest deductions

thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by

contrast bear the full interest rate risk under

current tenant-landlord law through the refer-

ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair

to permit homeowners to claim deductions for

Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated

Source UBS WMR

Impact of home ownership on income tax

Taxable income WITHOUT home ownership

Taxable income WITH home ownership

+ Imputed rental valuendash Maintenance costsndash Mortgage interest

Current system of taxes on home ownership

In focus Residential real estate

Claudio Saputelli

Analyst UBS AG

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201114

The leverage formula is decisive

Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder

whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-

tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve

return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the

current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term

investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-

ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the

mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are

equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-

ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we

strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their

eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio

Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and

other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not

concentrating all your assets in your home

living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a

single cent

Dubious exceptions from interest

deductions

The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its

constitutional mandate to encourage home

ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-

ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up

to a certain franc limit over 10 years This

ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-

efi t high-income households which obviously

misses the point and should therefore be re-

considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-

rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest

income could still off set mortgage interest

against the full amount of their interest in-

come This is also a one-sided policy that large-

ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-

gage interest from their taxable interest and

securities income

The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-

come tax deductions for maintenance costs as

well as private mortgage interest This is a step

in the right direction A er all tenants do not

receive tax breaks on their living expenses

However the Federal Council is making excep-

tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency

and environmental protection measures that

meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very

labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-

ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for

each individual homeowner A more effi cient

method would directly subsidize eco-friendly

energy systems and construction materials

The tax on imputed rental values

should be abolished

The current tax on IRV makes little economic

sense in our view If it were abolished there

would be no need for many deductions and

exceptions which is why we think the govern-

ment should simplify the tax code by com-

pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership

That way homeowners can preserve both their

homes and their sanity around tax time

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 2011 15

Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game

An estimated 520000 withdrawals have

been made from retirement accounts since

1995 The withdrawn capital is expected

to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010

The possible impact on future retirement

benefi ts remains unknown but the risks

should not be ignored

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-

ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August

1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home

ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely

low compared to other countries Raising it is

an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also

policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-

ter when they claimed the low home owner-

ship rate showed too little was being done to

reach the political goal of widespread home

ownership among the population

Swiss home ownership rate remains low

The home ownership rate was 31 percent in

1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-

ership encouragement law began to allow

prospective home buyers to pledge and with-

draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-

manently occupied homes were owner-occu-

pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now

puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent

In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared

to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in

Italy

Why the low ownership rate First condo-

minium ownership was not introduced to

Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss

rental apartment market is relatively effi cient

compared to other countries which dulls the

incentive to own a home So what caused

the spike in the home ownership rate in the

1990s In that decade home prices fell a er

the real estate bubble burst declining sharply

relative to national income Third Switzer-

landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older

ndash the cohort where home ownership is most

common Finally people have been free to

pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-

sets for home purchases since 1995 However

it is not clear whether this statutory option

has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a

bandwagon eff ect

Occupational pensions unsuitable for

encouraging home ownership

The explicit goal of the occupational pension

system ndash established in 1985 to supplement

the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system

(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of

living when the policyholder retires dies or

becomes disabled As fully funded schemes

occupational pensions represent the most

politically attractive pot of money for encour-

aging home ownership Withdrawing pension

assets however does more than reduce

future retirement benefi ts It can also lower

death and disability benefi ts if they depend

on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned

contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals

are a poor vehicle for encouraging home

ownership since they clearly undermine the

main purpose of occupational pensions to

provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in

retirement age

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as

follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves

the purpose of occupational pensions because

living expenses represent one of the largest

costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow

It ignores the need to distribute investment

risks and choose assets that off er security and

an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-

eral Act on Occupational Pensions People

who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-

Thomas Veraguth

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

In focus Residential real estate

350040004500

3000

15001000

20002500

0500

4500040000

3000035000

1500010000

2000025000

05000

0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003

Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR

Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995

Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)

Total annual amount in CHF million

UBS real estate focus January 201116

posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and

considerable risks of the real estate market for

years at a time

Total sum withdrawn remains low

The statistics tell a nuanced story of how

withdrawals are being used to fi nance home

purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-

al pension schemes has nearly doubled since

1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in

2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-

lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs

withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-

resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in

occupational pension schemes over the past

15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-

count for around 05 percent of the total capi-

tal invested in occupational pensions By com-

parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the

single-family homes and condominiums in

Switzerland had an aggregate market value of

124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages

taken out by private households amounted to

566 billion francs in September 2010

The withdrawal statistics also harbor another

surprise the continuity of the amounts with-

drawn The average withdrawal has remained

within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000

Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked

in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-

sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for

680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-

counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred

by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of

annuities and lump-sum payments and 167

percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and

cash payments The 2009 percentages were

roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively

Moderation is key

From an economic perspective certain poten-

tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-

sion to allow consumers to make early pen-

sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily

consumers have exercised considerable self-

restraint as indicated by the data on the

number of withdrawals and total money with-

drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all

members of occupational pension schemes

make withdrawals each year This is in part

due to restrictions inserted in the legislation

by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals

As a result we are cautiously optimistic about

the future of home fi nancing but recommend

pledges over withdrawals

In focus Residential real estate

Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals

Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since

1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to

prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes

make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-

portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are

nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-

ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common

for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However

there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys

by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-

theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-

ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home

Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of

Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-

ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007

For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed

carefully when purchasing a home

UBS real estate focus January 2011 17

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for

greater comfort and higher living stand-

ards Already established abroad this

model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-

zerland

Greater prosperity and a steadily growing

number of small households are driving demand

for new models of living with integrated ser-

vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-

nants and senior citizens The upper middle

class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income

no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free

time on tedious errands or exhausting chores

Even young families are increasingly discovering

the modelrsquos benefi ts

Growing importance of new models

of living

Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-

ing needs Over the years we have seen the

emergence of nursing homes independent liv-

ing and assisted-living communities There is

now an even richer more diverse menu of

options ranging from boarding houses to full-

service living While this latest model may re-

main a niche product for several years we think

demand will stay strong for the foreseeable

future thanks to demographic change growing

interest in support and services and a greater

overall need for higher living standards Of-

ferings need to be aligned with target group

needs and interests though Our experience

with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project

shows that models should be tailored to both

the target group and local conditions

James ndash Full-service Living

The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the

brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-

erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the

fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex

in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009

the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-

sion Fund Assets built a second James complex

in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-

four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-

cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third

James complex is under construction in Winter-

thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-

2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-

ping thanks to a direct connection between the

roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center

restaurants and a parking garage

The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects

todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not

only modern communication technologies (In-

ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-

tion (James is physically on the premises) At a

James complex rent includes a wide array of

concierge services such as receiving guests

accepting packages and purchases or reserving

concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to

mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services

such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet

care plant watering or vacation service These

services are billed separately under a pay-as-

you-go scheme

Components of full-service living

Home concierge services are new to Switzer-

land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-

nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it

mainly designates French superintendents or

caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-

cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-

sive personal services for tenants and visitors as

well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-

tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-

yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-

ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The

James concept embraces this principle When

tenants and visitors enter a James apartment

complex it should be readily apparent that this

is more than just a place to live The James ndash

Full-service Living concept can also adapt to

Patric Caillat

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Possible concept for full-service living

Source UBS GRE Switzerland

The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo

Living as a core service

Basic services included in rent

Agrave la carte services

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 201118

residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time

thanks to its extensive modular service off ering

The program is based on three components

residential use integrated basic services and

additional agrave la carte services

The apartment is the core service and as such

must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in

terms of location infrastructure amenities and

aesthetics The rent must also include several

basic services that are important to the target

groups This diff erentiates James from a regular

apartment complex Residents can also use

many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply

pick the services they need and pay for them

separately which makes the apartment some-

thing like a hotel To be successful the concept

has to combine these elements intelligently

while taking local circumstances into account

Other models on the market

Several models with slightly diff erent approach-

es have been launched in recent years Besides

James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-

set Management other full-service models in-

clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real

Estate Asset Management department and

ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG

Combining services with attractive living can

give a property its own unique character and

ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps

support intelligent real estate marketing How-

ever full-service living can only work if the

services benefi t users operators and owners

alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-

perience with such models it certainly has the

conditions and outlook needed to achieve a

win-win situation

Added value at an attractive price

ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work

users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat

value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to

tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er

all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-

cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go

scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start

Who is the target audience What services do they want While this

might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos

success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are

handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts

will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-

tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo

changing needs

In focus Residential real estate

Commercial real estate and special uses

The market separates the wheat from the chaff

UBS real estate focus January 201120

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in rela-

tively good shape We expect price pres-

sure from tenants to widen the perform-

ance gap between central and peripheral

locations

Offi ce space is the most important sector of

the Swiss commercial real estate market The

commercial property market was estimated

to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end

of 2009 according to Investment Property

Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this

total was offi ce space while retail properties

made up 377 percent and industrial real es-

tate 35 percent

Stable demand factors

Besides being large the offi ce property seg-

ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-

ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the

total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of

Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and

business services represent over 18 percent of

total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-

centage compared to other countries The

Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-

where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-

tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-

tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos

growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still

remained positive Part-time employment is

also becoming more widespread in Switzer-

land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies

are focusing on boosting employee productiv-

ity Future employment growth looks likely to

be moderate as a result

Rising importance of quality

The prospect of slow but positive employment

growth highlights the importance of analyzing

the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates

range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is

moderate compared to other countries and has

recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In

crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found

that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce

completions have been much higher in Ger-

man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-

zerland in recent years In 201112 around

150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the

market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2

in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the

various kinds of offi ce space on the market For

example we are skeptical about the medium-

term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-

erties (poor access to transportation and low

availability of services) on the periphery of cit-

ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-

geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-

ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be

strong expanding the labor market companies

still need to provide attractive workplaces for

their employees Easily accessible central offi ce

locations will gain even more importance Un-

der these pressures the offi ce market should

start to more clearly separate the wheat from

the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce

space is scarce should perform well while

non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle

to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral

locations will be squeezed since they are main-

ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce

functions Through renovation or new con-

structions in contrast downtown locations

should see further appreciation and attractive

returns For this reason we think rents for

high-end offi ce space should rise further

Positive appreciation rate

Despite falling interest rates and government

bond yields initial yields in the institutional

offi ce segment have hardly budged according

to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and

2009 In contrast to many European real estate

markets the appreciation rate is still positively

Commercial real estate and special uses

5

34

0ndash1

12

ndash3ndash2

2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

No drop in employment in Switzerland

Source Experian Business Services June 2010

Employment growth in financial and business services in percent

SwitzerlandEU15

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 11: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 2011 11

minium prices since 2000 range from 3 per-

cent for the Berne region to 8 percent for the

Lake Geneva region (Switzerland 42 per-

cent) At these rates real estate prices will

need 24 years to double in the Berne region

but only nine years in the Lake Geneva region

In fact Lake Geneva prices would sextuple in

24 years if growth were to remain un-

changed This simple calculation shows that

Lake Genevarsquos trend is clearly unsustainable

Housing prices are still skyrocketing despite

the general desire for a slowdown In the

third quarter of 2010 transaction prices rose

73 percent year-on-year for condominiums in

Switzerland (Lake Geneva 10 percent Zurich

87 percent Central Switzerland 81 percent)

and 3 percent for single-family houses (Lake

Geneva 57 percent Zurich 41 percent

Central Switzerland 47 percent) Prices failed

to decline in any metropolitan region

Threat level seven

Aggregating the data reveals two important

trends Home prices still largely refl ect the

long-term economic fundamentals for Swit-

zerland as a whole At the same time how-

ever some regions are frothier than the Swiss

average particularly the communities sur-

rounding Lake Geneva Lake Zurich and Lake

Zug and several high-end resort areas south

of the Alps It would be irresponsible to treat

these territories as only isolated trouble spots

for the Swiss real estate market History has

shown that price corrections can trigger un-

predictable domino eff ects across several re-

gions Thus the threat level should be raised

for the entire Swiss real estate market Since

economics (still) has no threat levels for cat-

egorizing the severity of a real estate bubble

we shall use the meteorological Beaufort

scale which classifi es wind speed from 0

(calm) to 12 (hurricane) We would currently

set the metaphorical threat level at

seven ldquohigh windrdquo The description reads

ldquoWhole trees in motion Eff ort needed to

walk against the windrdquo

Residential real estate

1412

810

20

46

ndash4ndash2

09 1187 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

Mortgage loan growth not excessive

Sources SNB BFS UBS WMR

Change in ratio of mortgage volume to populationGDP in percent

Mortgage volume population Mortgage volume GDP (nominal)

UBS real estate focus January 201112

The rental apartment market is stable

and harbors upside potential Prices for

multi-family dwellings have made com-

mercial properties increasingly attractive

to investors

The cooler economy and slightly lower immi-

gration had no notable impact on overall

housing demand The number of apartments

under construction in Switzerland tapered off

marginally during the recession but has not

reached a turning point by any means Low

interest rates also supported construction in

2010 Over 70000 apartments were under

construction at the end of the third quarter of

2010 This is a record and almost 12 percent

higher than in 2009 The number of building

permits indicated that construction activity

will drop slightly in 2011 Given the recent

improvements in the economic environment

no signifi cant increase in vacancy rates is ex-

pected Switzerland has the lowest vacancy

rate in Europe at 09 percent

Scarcity drives rent increases

Low vacancy rates in urban areas have sup-

ported the growth in rents Switzerland as

a whole saw rents increase by an average of

2 percent in the fi rst three quarters of 2010

although performance varied widely between

regions Near Lake Geneva nominal rents

rose nearly 7 percent those in southern Swit-

zerland went up around 31 percent In other

major regions rents only increased by 08 to

16 percent during the same period Rents will

probably increase further given the economic

environment but each region should always

be analyzed separately Despite continued

construction in Zurich demographic trends

should soak up the additional supply A swell-

ing population in the Geneva region is facing

a very scarce supply which is driving up rents

More rural regions such as the Jura and parts

of Central Switzerland will see rents fall

Careful analysis of investments

Yield-seeking investors have buoyed invest-

ment demand Many have focused on rental

apartments and thus have raised prices for

existing multi-family dwellings While the rent-

al apartment market does not appear over-

heated among professional investors we still

recommend carefully analyzing prospective

investments We expect this yearrsquos overall

appreciation return on multi-family dwellings

to remain on par with prior years Since the

economy is expected to improve we assume

rising rents will push up commercial property

valuations This could enable commercial real

estate to outperform multi-family dwellings

in 2012

Rental apartments ndash steady returns

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Residential real estate

Overview of residential properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Residential construction and vacancies 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Net increase in number of homes 45 000 42 000 38 977 44 717 38 255

Residential vacancy rate 10 09 09 10 10

Rental apartments

Asking prices for rental apartments 15 17 35 42 31

Asking prices for new rental apartments ndash15 ndash12 ndash45 15 38

Price index for passing rents 10 11 24 25 17

Mortgage reference interest rate 5 30 28 30 35 ndash

Number of vacant rental apartments 31 000 28 947 26 343 28 138 29 567

Performance on residential direct investment 50 50 53 61 564

Owner-occupied homes

Asking prices for condominiums 30 49 64 41 42

Closing prices for condominiums 25 59 33 47 44

Asking prices for single-family homes 25 47 50 27 30

Closing prices for single-family homes 15 23 04 38 27

Variable mortgage interest rate all banks 5 30 27 27 28 33

Growth in mortgage loans all banks 45 51 49 34 41

Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end

UBS real estate focus January 2011 13

Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory

The taxation of imputed rental values as

income is controversial For years there

have been heated discussions about this

issue Last summer the Federal Council

threw its hat in the ring supporting a

total abolition of the tax in order to sim-

plify the tax code

In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-

sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-

tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The

Federal Council rejected the initiative and now

aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-

ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-

posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-

tions on private interest payments with certain

exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer

be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-

ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-

tion measures

Root of the problem taxing imputed

rental values

Interestingly the endless debate about IRV

taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and

other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-

ed as parts of one indivisible system However

we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-

nomic eff ects by examining each component

separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents

the rent revenues that homeowners could the-

oretically earn if they rented out their home on

the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-

ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-

ants and homeowners on an equal footing on

the premise that homeowners are better off

economically since they live rent-free

This is a specious argument in our view First

tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-

ment risk for their home and no opportunity

costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on

assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-

ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo

risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies

a he y property gains tax on any capital gains

Losses by contrast are fully borne by the

property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor

job of evening the odds between tenants and

homeowners Simply consider how IRV are

determined There are few comparable proper-

ties particularly for single-family homes and

luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-

sible to calculate the market rents that underlie

the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and

sometimes quite complicated assessment

methods to calculate IRV This violates classic

tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be

both simple and transparent

Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other

side of the coin

What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-

tem the deductions for mortgage interest and

maintenance expenses As the law stands the

tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners

to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-

pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-

ment could be more pragmatic about mort-

gage interest There are three main reasons

why deductions for owner-occupied homes

should be eliminated in our opinion as the

Federal Council is essentially proposing to do

First the deductions give households an incen-

tive to take on too much debt While this is not

necessarily bad in itself it is still not something

the government should be expressly encourag-

ing Second allowing income tax deductions

for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-

errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and

thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-

owners can claim larger interest deductions

thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by

contrast bear the full interest rate risk under

current tenant-landlord law through the refer-

ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair

to permit homeowners to claim deductions for

Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated

Source UBS WMR

Impact of home ownership on income tax

Taxable income WITHOUT home ownership

Taxable income WITH home ownership

+ Imputed rental valuendash Maintenance costsndash Mortgage interest

Current system of taxes on home ownership

In focus Residential real estate

Claudio Saputelli

Analyst UBS AG

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201114

The leverage formula is decisive

Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder

whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-

tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve

return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the

current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term

investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-

ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the

mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are

equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-

ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we

strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their

eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio

Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and

other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not

concentrating all your assets in your home

living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a

single cent

Dubious exceptions from interest

deductions

The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its

constitutional mandate to encourage home

ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-

ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up

to a certain franc limit over 10 years This

ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-

efi t high-income households which obviously

misses the point and should therefore be re-

considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-

rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest

income could still off set mortgage interest

against the full amount of their interest in-

come This is also a one-sided policy that large-

ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-

gage interest from their taxable interest and

securities income

The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-

come tax deductions for maintenance costs as

well as private mortgage interest This is a step

in the right direction A er all tenants do not

receive tax breaks on their living expenses

However the Federal Council is making excep-

tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency

and environmental protection measures that

meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very

labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-

ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for

each individual homeowner A more effi cient

method would directly subsidize eco-friendly

energy systems and construction materials

The tax on imputed rental values

should be abolished

The current tax on IRV makes little economic

sense in our view If it were abolished there

would be no need for many deductions and

exceptions which is why we think the govern-

ment should simplify the tax code by com-

pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership

That way homeowners can preserve both their

homes and their sanity around tax time

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 2011 15

Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game

An estimated 520000 withdrawals have

been made from retirement accounts since

1995 The withdrawn capital is expected

to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010

The possible impact on future retirement

benefi ts remains unknown but the risks

should not be ignored

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-

ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August

1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home

ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely

low compared to other countries Raising it is

an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also

policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-

ter when they claimed the low home owner-

ship rate showed too little was being done to

reach the political goal of widespread home

ownership among the population

Swiss home ownership rate remains low

The home ownership rate was 31 percent in

1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-

ership encouragement law began to allow

prospective home buyers to pledge and with-

draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-

manently occupied homes were owner-occu-

pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now

puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent

In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared

to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in

Italy

Why the low ownership rate First condo-

minium ownership was not introduced to

Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss

rental apartment market is relatively effi cient

compared to other countries which dulls the

incentive to own a home So what caused

the spike in the home ownership rate in the

1990s In that decade home prices fell a er

the real estate bubble burst declining sharply

relative to national income Third Switzer-

landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older

ndash the cohort where home ownership is most

common Finally people have been free to

pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-

sets for home purchases since 1995 However

it is not clear whether this statutory option

has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a

bandwagon eff ect

Occupational pensions unsuitable for

encouraging home ownership

The explicit goal of the occupational pension

system ndash established in 1985 to supplement

the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system

(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of

living when the policyholder retires dies or

becomes disabled As fully funded schemes

occupational pensions represent the most

politically attractive pot of money for encour-

aging home ownership Withdrawing pension

assets however does more than reduce

future retirement benefi ts It can also lower

death and disability benefi ts if they depend

on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned

contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals

are a poor vehicle for encouraging home

ownership since they clearly undermine the

main purpose of occupational pensions to

provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in

retirement age

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as

follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves

the purpose of occupational pensions because

living expenses represent one of the largest

costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow

It ignores the need to distribute investment

risks and choose assets that off er security and

an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-

eral Act on Occupational Pensions People

who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-

Thomas Veraguth

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

In focus Residential real estate

350040004500

3000

15001000

20002500

0500

4500040000

3000035000

1500010000

2000025000

05000

0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003

Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR

Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995

Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)

Total annual amount in CHF million

UBS real estate focus January 201116

posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and

considerable risks of the real estate market for

years at a time

Total sum withdrawn remains low

The statistics tell a nuanced story of how

withdrawals are being used to fi nance home

purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-

al pension schemes has nearly doubled since

1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in

2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-

lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs

withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-

resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in

occupational pension schemes over the past

15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-

count for around 05 percent of the total capi-

tal invested in occupational pensions By com-

parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the

single-family homes and condominiums in

Switzerland had an aggregate market value of

124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages

taken out by private households amounted to

566 billion francs in September 2010

The withdrawal statistics also harbor another

surprise the continuity of the amounts with-

drawn The average withdrawal has remained

within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000

Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked

in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-

sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for

680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-

counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred

by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of

annuities and lump-sum payments and 167

percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and

cash payments The 2009 percentages were

roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively

Moderation is key

From an economic perspective certain poten-

tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-

sion to allow consumers to make early pen-

sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily

consumers have exercised considerable self-

restraint as indicated by the data on the

number of withdrawals and total money with-

drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all

members of occupational pension schemes

make withdrawals each year This is in part

due to restrictions inserted in the legislation

by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals

As a result we are cautiously optimistic about

the future of home fi nancing but recommend

pledges over withdrawals

In focus Residential real estate

Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals

Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since

1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to

prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes

make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-

portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are

nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-

ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common

for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However

there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys

by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-

theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-

ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home

Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of

Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-

ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007

For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed

carefully when purchasing a home

UBS real estate focus January 2011 17

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for

greater comfort and higher living stand-

ards Already established abroad this

model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-

zerland

Greater prosperity and a steadily growing

number of small households are driving demand

for new models of living with integrated ser-

vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-

nants and senior citizens The upper middle

class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income

no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free

time on tedious errands or exhausting chores

Even young families are increasingly discovering

the modelrsquos benefi ts

Growing importance of new models

of living

Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-

ing needs Over the years we have seen the

emergence of nursing homes independent liv-

ing and assisted-living communities There is

now an even richer more diverse menu of

options ranging from boarding houses to full-

service living While this latest model may re-

main a niche product for several years we think

demand will stay strong for the foreseeable

future thanks to demographic change growing

interest in support and services and a greater

overall need for higher living standards Of-

ferings need to be aligned with target group

needs and interests though Our experience

with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project

shows that models should be tailored to both

the target group and local conditions

James ndash Full-service Living

The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the

brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-

erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the

fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex

in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009

the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-

sion Fund Assets built a second James complex

in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-

four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-

cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third

James complex is under construction in Winter-

thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-

2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-

ping thanks to a direct connection between the

roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center

restaurants and a parking garage

The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects

todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not

only modern communication technologies (In-

ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-

tion (James is physically on the premises) At a

James complex rent includes a wide array of

concierge services such as receiving guests

accepting packages and purchases or reserving

concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to

mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services

such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet

care plant watering or vacation service These

services are billed separately under a pay-as-

you-go scheme

Components of full-service living

Home concierge services are new to Switzer-

land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-

nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it

mainly designates French superintendents or

caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-

cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-

sive personal services for tenants and visitors as

well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-

tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-

yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-

ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The

James concept embraces this principle When

tenants and visitors enter a James apartment

complex it should be readily apparent that this

is more than just a place to live The James ndash

Full-service Living concept can also adapt to

Patric Caillat

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Possible concept for full-service living

Source UBS GRE Switzerland

The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo

Living as a core service

Basic services included in rent

Agrave la carte services

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 201118

residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time

thanks to its extensive modular service off ering

The program is based on three components

residential use integrated basic services and

additional agrave la carte services

The apartment is the core service and as such

must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in

terms of location infrastructure amenities and

aesthetics The rent must also include several

basic services that are important to the target

groups This diff erentiates James from a regular

apartment complex Residents can also use

many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply

pick the services they need and pay for them

separately which makes the apartment some-

thing like a hotel To be successful the concept

has to combine these elements intelligently

while taking local circumstances into account

Other models on the market

Several models with slightly diff erent approach-

es have been launched in recent years Besides

James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-

set Management other full-service models in-

clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real

Estate Asset Management department and

ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG

Combining services with attractive living can

give a property its own unique character and

ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps

support intelligent real estate marketing How-

ever full-service living can only work if the

services benefi t users operators and owners

alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-

perience with such models it certainly has the

conditions and outlook needed to achieve a

win-win situation

Added value at an attractive price

ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work

users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat

value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to

tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er

all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-

cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go

scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start

Who is the target audience What services do they want While this

might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos

success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are

handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts

will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-

tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo

changing needs

In focus Residential real estate

Commercial real estate and special uses

The market separates the wheat from the chaff

UBS real estate focus January 201120

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in rela-

tively good shape We expect price pres-

sure from tenants to widen the perform-

ance gap between central and peripheral

locations

Offi ce space is the most important sector of

the Swiss commercial real estate market The

commercial property market was estimated

to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end

of 2009 according to Investment Property

Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this

total was offi ce space while retail properties

made up 377 percent and industrial real es-

tate 35 percent

Stable demand factors

Besides being large the offi ce property seg-

ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-

ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the

total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of

Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and

business services represent over 18 percent of

total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-

centage compared to other countries The

Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-

where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-

tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-

tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos

growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still

remained positive Part-time employment is

also becoming more widespread in Switzer-

land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies

are focusing on boosting employee productiv-

ity Future employment growth looks likely to

be moderate as a result

Rising importance of quality

The prospect of slow but positive employment

growth highlights the importance of analyzing

the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates

range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is

moderate compared to other countries and has

recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In

crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found

that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce

completions have been much higher in Ger-

man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-

zerland in recent years In 201112 around

150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the

market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2

in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the

various kinds of offi ce space on the market For

example we are skeptical about the medium-

term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-

erties (poor access to transportation and low

availability of services) on the periphery of cit-

ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-

geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-

ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be

strong expanding the labor market companies

still need to provide attractive workplaces for

their employees Easily accessible central offi ce

locations will gain even more importance Un-

der these pressures the offi ce market should

start to more clearly separate the wheat from

the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce

space is scarce should perform well while

non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle

to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral

locations will be squeezed since they are main-

ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce

functions Through renovation or new con-

structions in contrast downtown locations

should see further appreciation and attractive

returns For this reason we think rents for

high-end offi ce space should rise further

Positive appreciation rate

Despite falling interest rates and government

bond yields initial yields in the institutional

offi ce segment have hardly budged according

to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and

2009 In contrast to many European real estate

markets the appreciation rate is still positively

Commercial real estate and special uses

5

34

0ndash1

12

ndash3ndash2

2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

No drop in employment in Switzerland

Source Experian Business Services June 2010

Employment growth in financial and business services in percent

SwitzerlandEU15

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 12: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 201112

The rental apartment market is stable

and harbors upside potential Prices for

multi-family dwellings have made com-

mercial properties increasingly attractive

to investors

The cooler economy and slightly lower immi-

gration had no notable impact on overall

housing demand The number of apartments

under construction in Switzerland tapered off

marginally during the recession but has not

reached a turning point by any means Low

interest rates also supported construction in

2010 Over 70000 apartments were under

construction at the end of the third quarter of

2010 This is a record and almost 12 percent

higher than in 2009 The number of building

permits indicated that construction activity

will drop slightly in 2011 Given the recent

improvements in the economic environment

no signifi cant increase in vacancy rates is ex-

pected Switzerland has the lowest vacancy

rate in Europe at 09 percent

Scarcity drives rent increases

Low vacancy rates in urban areas have sup-

ported the growth in rents Switzerland as

a whole saw rents increase by an average of

2 percent in the fi rst three quarters of 2010

although performance varied widely between

regions Near Lake Geneva nominal rents

rose nearly 7 percent those in southern Swit-

zerland went up around 31 percent In other

major regions rents only increased by 08 to

16 percent during the same period Rents will

probably increase further given the economic

environment but each region should always

be analyzed separately Despite continued

construction in Zurich demographic trends

should soak up the additional supply A swell-

ing population in the Geneva region is facing

a very scarce supply which is driving up rents

More rural regions such as the Jura and parts

of Central Switzerland will see rents fall

Careful analysis of investments

Yield-seeking investors have buoyed invest-

ment demand Many have focused on rental

apartments and thus have raised prices for

existing multi-family dwellings While the rent-

al apartment market does not appear over-

heated among professional investors we still

recommend carefully analyzing prospective

investments We expect this yearrsquos overall

appreciation return on multi-family dwellings

to remain on par with prior years Since the

economy is expected to improve we assume

rising rents will push up commercial property

valuations This could enable commercial real

estate to outperform multi-family dwellings

in 2012

Rental apartments ndash steady returns

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Residential real estate

Overview of residential properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Residential construction and vacancies 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Net increase in number of homes 45 000 42 000 38 977 44 717 38 255

Residential vacancy rate 10 09 09 10 10

Rental apartments

Asking prices for rental apartments 15 17 35 42 31

Asking prices for new rental apartments ndash15 ndash12 ndash45 15 38

Price index for passing rents 10 11 24 25 17

Mortgage reference interest rate 5 30 28 30 35 ndash

Number of vacant rental apartments 31 000 28 947 26 343 28 138 29 567

Performance on residential direct investment 50 50 53 61 564

Owner-occupied homes

Asking prices for condominiums 30 49 64 41 42

Closing prices for condominiums 25 59 33 47 44

Asking prices for single-family homes 25 47 50 27 30

Closing prices for single-family homes 15 23 04 38 27

Variable mortgage interest rate all banks 5 30 27 27 28 33

Growth in mortgage loans all banks 45 51 49 34 41

Number of vacant condominiums 8 000 7 766 8 418 8 980 7 9381 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner BFS SNB IPD UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011)3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 20105 Year-end

UBS real estate focus January 2011 13

Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory

The taxation of imputed rental values as

income is controversial For years there

have been heated discussions about this

issue Last summer the Federal Council

threw its hat in the ring supporting a

total abolition of the tax in order to sim-

plify the tax code

In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-

sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-

tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The

Federal Council rejected the initiative and now

aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-

ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-

posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-

tions on private interest payments with certain

exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer

be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-

ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-

tion measures

Root of the problem taxing imputed

rental values

Interestingly the endless debate about IRV

taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and

other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-

ed as parts of one indivisible system However

we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-

nomic eff ects by examining each component

separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents

the rent revenues that homeowners could the-

oretically earn if they rented out their home on

the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-

ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-

ants and homeowners on an equal footing on

the premise that homeowners are better off

economically since they live rent-free

This is a specious argument in our view First

tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-

ment risk for their home and no opportunity

costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on

assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-

ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo

risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies

a he y property gains tax on any capital gains

Losses by contrast are fully borne by the

property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor

job of evening the odds between tenants and

homeowners Simply consider how IRV are

determined There are few comparable proper-

ties particularly for single-family homes and

luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-

sible to calculate the market rents that underlie

the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and

sometimes quite complicated assessment

methods to calculate IRV This violates classic

tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be

both simple and transparent

Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other

side of the coin

What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-

tem the deductions for mortgage interest and

maintenance expenses As the law stands the

tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners

to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-

pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-

ment could be more pragmatic about mort-

gage interest There are three main reasons

why deductions for owner-occupied homes

should be eliminated in our opinion as the

Federal Council is essentially proposing to do

First the deductions give households an incen-

tive to take on too much debt While this is not

necessarily bad in itself it is still not something

the government should be expressly encourag-

ing Second allowing income tax deductions

for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-

errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and

thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-

owners can claim larger interest deductions

thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by

contrast bear the full interest rate risk under

current tenant-landlord law through the refer-

ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair

to permit homeowners to claim deductions for

Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated

Source UBS WMR

Impact of home ownership on income tax

Taxable income WITHOUT home ownership

Taxable income WITH home ownership

+ Imputed rental valuendash Maintenance costsndash Mortgage interest

Current system of taxes on home ownership

In focus Residential real estate

Claudio Saputelli

Analyst UBS AG

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201114

The leverage formula is decisive

Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder

whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-

tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve

return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the

current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term

investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-

ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the

mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are

equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-

ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we

strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their

eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio

Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and

other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not

concentrating all your assets in your home

living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a

single cent

Dubious exceptions from interest

deductions

The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its

constitutional mandate to encourage home

ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-

ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up

to a certain franc limit over 10 years This

ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-

efi t high-income households which obviously

misses the point and should therefore be re-

considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-

rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest

income could still off set mortgage interest

against the full amount of their interest in-

come This is also a one-sided policy that large-

ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-

gage interest from their taxable interest and

securities income

The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-

come tax deductions for maintenance costs as

well as private mortgage interest This is a step

in the right direction A er all tenants do not

receive tax breaks on their living expenses

However the Federal Council is making excep-

tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency

and environmental protection measures that

meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very

labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-

ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for

each individual homeowner A more effi cient

method would directly subsidize eco-friendly

energy systems and construction materials

The tax on imputed rental values

should be abolished

The current tax on IRV makes little economic

sense in our view If it were abolished there

would be no need for many deductions and

exceptions which is why we think the govern-

ment should simplify the tax code by com-

pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership

That way homeowners can preserve both their

homes and their sanity around tax time

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 2011 15

Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game

An estimated 520000 withdrawals have

been made from retirement accounts since

1995 The withdrawn capital is expected

to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010

The possible impact on future retirement

benefi ts remains unknown but the risks

should not be ignored

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-

ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August

1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home

ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely

low compared to other countries Raising it is

an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also

policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-

ter when they claimed the low home owner-

ship rate showed too little was being done to

reach the political goal of widespread home

ownership among the population

Swiss home ownership rate remains low

The home ownership rate was 31 percent in

1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-

ership encouragement law began to allow

prospective home buyers to pledge and with-

draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-

manently occupied homes were owner-occu-

pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now

puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent

In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared

to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in

Italy

Why the low ownership rate First condo-

minium ownership was not introduced to

Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss

rental apartment market is relatively effi cient

compared to other countries which dulls the

incentive to own a home So what caused

the spike in the home ownership rate in the

1990s In that decade home prices fell a er

the real estate bubble burst declining sharply

relative to national income Third Switzer-

landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older

ndash the cohort where home ownership is most

common Finally people have been free to

pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-

sets for home purchases since 1995 However

it is not clear whether this statutory option

has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a

bandwagon eff ect

Occupational pensions unsuitable for

encouraging home ownership

The explicit goal of the occupational pension

system ndash established in 1985 to supplement

the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system

(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of

living when the policyholder retires dies or

becomes disabled As fully funded schemes

occupational pensions represent the most

politically attractive pot of money for encour-

aging home ownership Withdrawing pension

assets however does more than reduce

future retirement benefi ts It can also lower

death and disability benefi ts if they depend

on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned

contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals

are a poor vehicle for encouraging home

ownership since they clearly undermine the

main purpose of occupational pensions to

provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in

retirement age

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as

follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves

the purpose of occupational pensions because

living expenses represent one of the largest

costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow

It ignores the need to distribute investment

risks and choose assets that off er security and

an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-

eral Act on Occupational Pensions People

who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-

Thomas Veraguth

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

In focus Residential real estate

350040004500

3000

15001000

20002500

0500

4500040000

3000035000

1500010000

2000025000

05000

0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003

Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR

Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995

Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)

Total annual amount in CHF million

UBS real estate focus January 201116

posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and

considerable risks of the real estate market for

years at a time

Total sum withdrawn remains low

The statistics tell a nuanced story of how

withdrawals are being used to fi nance home

purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-

al pension schemes has nearly doubled since

1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in

2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-

lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs

withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-

resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in

occupational pension schemes over the past

15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-

count for around 05 percent of the total capi-

tal invested in occupational pensions By com-

parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the

single-family homes and condominiums in

Switzerland had an aggregate market value of

124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages

taken out by private households amounted to

566 billion francs in September 2010

The withdrawal statistics also harbor another

surprise the continuity of the amounts with-

drawn The average withdrawal has remained

within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000

Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked

in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-

sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for

680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-

counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred

by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of

annuities and lump-sum payments and 167

percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and

cash payments The 2009 percentages were

roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively

Moderation is key

From an economic perspective certain poten-

tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-

sion to allow consumers to make early pen-

sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily

consumers have exercised considerable self-

restraint as indicated by the data on the

number of withdrawals and total money with-

drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all

members of occupational pension schemes

make withdrawals each year This is in part

due to restrictions inserted in the legislation

by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals

As a result we are cautiously optimistic about

the future of home fi nancing but recommend

pledges over withdrawals

In focus Residential real estate

Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals

Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since

1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to

prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes

make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-

portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are

nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-

ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common

for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However

there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys

by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-

theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-

ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home

Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of

Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-

ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007

For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed

carefully when purchasing a home

UBS real estate focus January 2011 17

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for

greater comfort and higher living stand-

ards Already established abroad this

model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-

zerland

Greater prosperity and a steadily growing

number of small households are driving demand

for new models of living with integrated ser-

vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-

nants and senior citizens The upper middle

class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income

no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free

time on tedious errands or exhausting chores

Even young families are increasingly discovering

the modelrsquos benefi ts

Growing importance of new models

of living

Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-

ing needs Over the years we have seen the

emergence of nursing homes independent liv-

ing and assisted-living communities There is

now an even richer more diverse menu of

options ranging from boarding houses to full-

service living While this latest model may re-

main a niche product for several years we think

demand will stay strong for the foreseeable

future thanks to demographic change growing

interest in support and services and a greater

overall need for higher living standards Of-

ferings need to be aligned with target group

needs and interests though Our experience

with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project

shows that models should be tailored to both

the target group and local conditions

James ndash Full-service Living

The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the

brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-

erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the

fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex

in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009

the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-

sion Fund Assets built a second James complex

in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-

four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-

cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third

James complex is under construction in Winter-

thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-

2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-

ping thanks to a direct connection between the

roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center

restaurants and a parking garage

The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects

todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not

only modern communication technologies (In-

ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-

tion (James is physically on the premises) At a

James complex rent includes a wide array of

concierge services such as receiving guests

accepting packages and purchases or reserving

concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to

mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services

such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet

care plant watering or vacation service These

services are billed separately under a pay-as-

you-go scheme

Components of full-service living

Home concierge services are new to Switzer-

land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-

nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it

mainly designates French superintendents or

caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-

cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-

sive personal services for tenants and visitors as

well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-

tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-

yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-

ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The

James concept embraces this principle When

tenants and visitors enter a James apartment

complex it should be readily apparent that this

is more than just a place to live The James ndash

Full-service Living concept can also adapt to

Patric Caillat

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Possible concept for full-service living

Source UBS GRE Switzerland

The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo

Living as a core service

Basic services included in rent

Agrave la carte services

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 201118

residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time

thanks to its extensive modular service off ering

The program is based on three components

residential use integrated basic services and

additional agrave la carte services

The apartment is the core service and as such

must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in

terms of location infrastructure amenities and

aesthetics The rent must also include several

basic services that are important to the target

groups This diff erentiates James from a regular

apartment complex Residents can also use

many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply

pick the services they need and pay for them

separately which makes the apartment some-

thing like a hotel To be successful the concept

has to combine these elements intelligently

while taking local circumstances into account

Other models on the market

Several models with slightly diff erent approach-

es have been launched in recent years Besides

James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-

set Management other full-service models in-

clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real

Estate Asset Management department and

ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG

Combining services with attractive living can

give a property its own unique character and

ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps

support intelligent real estate marketing How-

ever full-service living can only work if the

services benefi t users operators and owners

alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-

perience with such models it certainly has the

conditions and outlook needed to achieve a

win-win situation

Added value at an attractive price

ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work

users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat

value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to

tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er

all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-

cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go

scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start

Who is the target audience What services do they want While this

might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos

success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are

handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts

will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-

tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo

changing needs

In focus Residential real estate

Commercial real estate and special uses

The market separates the wheat from the chaff

UBS real estate focus January 201120

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in rela-

tively good shape We expect price pres-

sure from tenants to widen the perform-

ance gap between central and peripheral

locations

Offi ce space is the most important sector of

the Swiss commercial real estate market The

commercial property market was estimated

to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end

of 2009 according to Investment Property

Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this

total was offi ce space while retail properties

made up 377 percent and industrial real es-

tate 35 percent

Stable demand factors

Besides being large the offi ce property seg-

ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-

ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the

total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of

Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and

business services represent over 18 percent of

total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-

centage compared to other countries The

Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-

where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-

tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-

tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos

growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still

remained positive Part-time employment is

also becoming more widespread in Switzer-

land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies

are focusing on boosting employee productiv-

ity Future employment growth looks likely to

be moderate as a result

Rising importance of quality

The prospect of slow but positive employment

growth highlights the importance of analyzing

the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates

range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is

moderate compared to other countries and has

recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In

crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found

that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce

completions have been much higher in Ger-

man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-

zerland in recent years In 201112 around

150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the

market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2

in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the

various kinds of offi ce space on the market For

example we are skeptical about the medium-

term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-

erties (poor access to transportation and low

availability of services) on the periphery of cit-

ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-

geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-

ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be

strong expanding the labor market companies

still need to provide attractive workplaces for

their employees Easily accessible central offi ce

locations will gain even more importance Un-

der these pressures the offi ce market should

start to more clearly separate the wheat from

the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce

space is scarce should perform well while

non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle

to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral

locations will be squeezed since they are main-

ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce

functions Through renovation or new con-

structions in contrast downtown locations

should see further appreciation and attractive

returns For this reason we think rents for

high-end offi ce space should rise further

Positive appreciation rate

Despite falling interest rates and government

bond yields initial yields in the institutional

offi ce segment have hardly budged according

to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and

2009 In contrast to many European real estate

markets the appreciation rate is still positively

Commercial real estate and special uses

5

34

0ndash1

12

ndash3ndash2

2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

No drop in employment in Switzerland

Source Experian Business Services June 2010

Employment growth in financial and business services in percent

SwitzerlandEU15

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 13: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 2011 13

Imputed rental values ndash a violation of classic tax theory

The taxation of imputed rental values as

income is controversial For years there

have been heated discussions about this

issue Last summer the Federal Council

threw its hat in the ring supporting a

total abolition of the tax in order to sim-

plify the tax code

In January 2009 the Swiss Homeownersrsquo As-

sociation (HEV Schweiz) launched a popular ini-

tiative titled ldquoLiving Securely in Old Agerdquo The

Federal Council rejected the initiative and now

aims to abolish the tax on imputed rental val-

ues (IRV) by instituting an indirect counterpro-

posal In exchange it will eliminate tax deduc-

tions on private interest payments with certain

exceptions Maintenance costs will no longer

be tax-deductible either except for high-quali-

ty energy effi ciency and environmental protec-

tion measures

Root of the problem taxing imputed

rental values

Interestingly the endless debate about IRV

taxes always links IRV to mortgage interest and

other tax-deductible expenses They are treat-

ed as parts of one indivisible system However

we can best evaluate the systemrsquos macroeco-

nomic eff ects by examining each component

separately Letrsquos begin with IRV It represents

the rent revenues that homeowners could the-

oretically earn if they rented out their home on

the open market It is taxed as a form of invest-

ment income This IRV tax allegedly puts ten-

ants and homeowners on an equal footing on

the premise that homeowners are better off

economically since they live rent-free

This is a specious argument in our view First

tenants unlike homeowners bear no invest-

ment risk for their home and no opportunity

costs for their assets (profi ts not earned on

assets tied up in real estate) Second the gov-

ernment greatly benefi ts from homeownersrsquo

risk-taking when properties are sold ndash it levies

a he y property gains tax on any capital gains

Losses by contrast are fully borne by the

property seller Third the IRV tax does a poor

job of evening the odds between tenants and

homeowners Simply consider how IRV are

determined There are few comparable proper-

ties particularly for single-family homes and

luxury properties making it diffi cult or impos-

sible to calculate the market rents that underlie

the IRV Finally the cantons use diff erent and

sometimes quite complicated assessment

methods to calculate IRV This violates classic

tax theoryrsquos maxim that tax laws should be

both simple and transparent

Mortgage interest deduction ndash the other

side of the coin

What about the fl ip side of the home tax sys-

tem the deductions for mortgage interest and

maintenance expenses As the law stands the

tax on IRV automatically allows homeowners

to claim these deductions as ldquoprofessional ex-

pensesrdquo If IRV taxes were revoked the govern-

ment could be more pragmatic about mort-

gage interest There are three main reasons

why deductions for owner-occupied homes

should be eliminated in our opinion as the

Federal Council is essentially proposing to do

First the deductions give households an incen-

tive to take on too much debt While this is not

necessarily bad in itself it is still not something

the government should be expressly encourag-

ing Second allowing income tax deductions

for debt interest pushes part of the home buy-

errsquos interest rate risk onto the government and

thus the taxpayer As interest rates rise home-

owners can claim larger interest deductions

thereby reducing their tax bills Tenants by

contrast bear the full interest rate risk under

current tenant-landlord law through the refer-

ence mortgage interest rate Third it is unfair

to permit homeowners to claim deductions for

Current system for taxing home ownership is complicated

Source UBS WMR

Impact of home ownership on income tax

Taxable income WITHOUT home ownership

Taxable income WITH home ownership

+ Imputed rental valuendash Maintenance costsndash Mortgage interest

Current system of taxes on home ownership

In focus Residential real estate

Claudio Saputelli

Analyst UBS AG

Claudio Saputelli

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201114

The leverage formula is decisive

Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder

whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-

tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve

return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the

current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term

investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-

ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the

mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are

equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-

ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we

strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their

eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio

Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and

other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not

concentrating all your assets in your home

living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a

single cent

Dubious exceptions from interest

deductions

The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its

constitutional mandate to encourage home

ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-

ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up

to a certain franc limit over 10 years This

ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-

efi t high-income households which obviously

misses the point and should therefore be re-

considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-

rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest

income could still off set mortgage interest

against the full amount of their interest in-

come This is also a one-sided policy that large-

ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-

gage interest from their taxable interest and

securities income

The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-

come tax deductions for maintenance costs as

well as private mortgage interest This is a step

in the right direction A er all tenants do not

receive tax breaks on their living expenses

However the Federal Council is making excep-

tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency

and environmental protection measures that

meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very

labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-

ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for

each individual homeowner A more effi cient

method would directly subsidize eco-friendly

energy systems and construction materials

The tax on imputed rental values

should be abolished

The current tax on IRV makes little economic

sense in our view If it were abolished there

would be no need for many deductions and

exceptions which is why we think the govern-

ment should simplify the tax code by com-

pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership

That way homeowners can preserve both their

homes and their sanity around tax time

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 2011 15

Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game

An estimated 520000 withdrawals have

been made from retirement accounts since

1995 The withdrawn capital is expected

to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010

The possible impact on future retirement

benefi ts remains unknown but the risks

should not be ignored

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-

ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August

1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home

ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely

low compared to other countries Raising it is

an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also

policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-

ter when they claimed the low home owner-

ship rate showed too little was being done to

reach the political goal of widespread home

ownership among the population

Swiss home ownership rate remains low

The home ownership rate was 31 percent in

1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-

ership encouragement law began to allow

prospective home buyers to pledge and with-

draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-

manently occupied homes were owner-occu-

pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now

puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent

In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared

to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in

Italy

Why the low ownership rate First condo-

minium ownership was not introduced to

Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss

rental apartment market is relatively effi cient

compared to other countries which dulls the

incentive to own a home So what caused

the spike in the home ownership rate in the

1990s In that decade home prices fell a er

the real estate bubble burst declining sharply

relative to national income Third Switzer-

landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older

ndash the cohort where home ownership is most

common Finally people have been free to

pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-

sets for home purchases since 1995 However

it is not clear whether this statutory option

has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a

bandwagon eff ect

Occupational pensions unsuitable for

encouraging home ownership

The explicit goal of the occupational pension

system ndash established in 1985 to supplement

the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system

(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of

living when the policyholder retires dies or

becomes disabled As fully funded schemes

occupational pensions represent the most

politically attractive pot of money for encour-

aging home ownership Withdrawing pension

assets however does more than reduce

future retirement benefi ts It can also lower

death and disability benefi ts if they depend

on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned

contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals

are a poor vehicle for encouraging home

ownership since they clearly undermine the

main purpose of occupational pensions to

provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in

retirement age

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as

follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves

the purpose of occupational pensions because

living expenses represent one of the largest

costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow

It ignores the need to distribute investment

risks and choose assets that off er security and

an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-

eral Act on Occupational Pensions People

who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-

Thomas Veraguth

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

In focus Residential real estate

350040004500

3000

15001000

20002500

0500

4500040000

3000035000

1500010000

2000025000

05000

0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003

Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR

Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995

Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)

Total annual amount in CHF million

UBS real estate focus January 201116

posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and

considerable risks of the real estate market for

years at a time

Total sum withdrawn remains low

The statistics tell a nuanced story of how

withdrawals are being used to fi nance home

purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-

al pension schemes has nearly doubled since

1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in

2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-

lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs

withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-

resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in

occupational pension schemes over the past

15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-

count for around 05 percent of the total capi-

tal invested in occupational pensions By com-

parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the

single-family homes and condominiums in

Switzerland had an aggregate market value of

124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages

taken out by private households amounted to

566 billion francs in September 2010

The withdrawal statistics also harbor another

surprise the continuity of the amounts with-

drawn The average withdrawal has remained

within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000

Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked

in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-

sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for

680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-

counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred

by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of

annuities and lump-sum payments and 167

percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and

cash payments The 2009 percentages were

roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively

Moderation is key

From an economic perspective certain poten-

tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-

sion to allow consumers to make early pen-

sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily

consumers have exercised considerable self-

restraint as indicated by the data on the

number of withdrawals and total money with-

drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all

members of occupational pension schemes

make withdrawals each year This is in part

due to restrictions inserted in the legislation

by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals

As a result we are cautiously optimistic about

the future of home fi nancing but recommend

pledges over withdrawals

In focus Residential real estate

Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals

Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since

1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to

prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes

make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-

portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are

nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-

ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common

for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However

there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys

by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-

theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-

ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home

Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of

Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-

ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007

For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed

carefully when purchasing a home

UBS real estate focus January 2011 17

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for

greater comfort and higher living stand-

ards Already established abroad this

model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-

zerland

Greater prosperity and a steadily growing

number of small households are driving demand

for new models of living with integrated ser-

vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-

nants and senior citizens The upper middle

class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income

no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free

time on tedious errands or exhausting chores

Even young families are increasingly discovering

the modelrsquos benefi ts

Growing importance of new models

of living

Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-

ing needs Over the years we have seen the

emergence of nursing homes independent liv-

ing and assisted-living communities There is

now an even richer more diverse menu of

options ranging from boarding houses to full-

service living While this latest model may re-

main a niche product for several years we think

demand will stay strong for the foreseeable

future thanks to demographic change growing

interest in support and services and a greater

overall need for higher living standards Of-

ferings need to be aligned with target group

needs and interests though Our experience

with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project

shows that models should be tailored to both

the target group and local conditions

James ndash Full-service Living

The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the

brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-

erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the

fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex

in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009

the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-

sion Fund Assets built a second James complex

in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-

four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-

cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third

James complex is under construction in Winter-

thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-

2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-

ping thanks to a direct connection between the

roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center

restaurants and a parking garage

The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects

todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not

only modern communication technologies (In-

ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-

tion (James is physically on the premises) At a

James complex rent includes a wide array of

concierge services such as receiving guests

accepting packages and purchases or reserving

concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to

mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services

such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet

care plant watering or vacation service These

services are billed separately under a pay-as-

you-go scheme

Components of full-service living

Home concierge services are new to Switzer-

land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-

nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it

mainly designates French superintendents or

caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-

cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-

sive personal services for tenants and visitors as

well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-

tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-

yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-

ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The

James concept embraces this principle When

tenants and visitors enter a James apartment

complex it should be readily apparent that this

is more than just a place to live The James ndash

Full-service Living concept can also adapt to

Patric Caillat

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Possible concept for full-service living

Source UBS GRE Switzerland

The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo

Living as a core service

Basic services included in rent

Agrave la carte services

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 201118

residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time

thanks to its extensive modular service off ering

The program is based on three components

residential use integrated basic services and

additional agrave la carte services

The apartment is the core service and as such

must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in

terms of location infrastructure amenities and

aesthetics The rent must also include several

basic services that are important to the target

groups This diff erentiates James from a regular

apartment complex Residents can also use

many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply

pick the services they need and pay for them

separately which makes the apartment some-

thing like a hotel To be successful the concept

has to combine these elements intelligently

while taking local circumstances into account

Other models on the market

Several models with slightly diff erent approach-

es have been launched in recent years Besides

James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-

set Management other full-service models in-

clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real

Estate Asset Management department and

ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG

Combining services with attractive living can

give a property its own unique character and

ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps

support intelligent real estate marketing How-

ever full-service living can only work if the

services benefi t users operators and owners

alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-

perience with such models it certainly has the

conditions and outlook needed to achieve a

win-win situation

Added value at an attractive price

ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work

users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat

value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to

tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er

all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-

cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go

scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start

Who is the target audience What services do they want While this

might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos

success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are

handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts

will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-

tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo

changing needs

In focus Residential real estate

Commercial real estate and special uses

The market separates the wheat from the chaff

UBS real estate focus January 201120

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in rela-

tively good shape We expect price pres-

sure from tenants to widen the perform-

ance gap between central and peripheral

locations

Offi ce space is the most important sector of

the Swiss commercial real estate market The

commercial property market was estimated

to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end

of 2009 according to Investment Property

Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this

total was offi ce space while retail properties

made up 377 percent and industrial real es-

tate 35 percent

Stable demand factors

Besides being large the offi ce property seg-

ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-

ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the

total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of

Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and

business services represent over 18 percent of

total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-

centage compared to other countries The

Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-

where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-

tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-

tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos

growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still

remained positive Part-time employment is

also becoming more widespread in Switzer-

land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies

are focusing on boosting employee productiv-

ity Future employment growth looks likely to

be moderate as a result

Rising importance of quality

The prospect of slow but positive employment

growth highlights the importance of analyzing

the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates

range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is

moderate compared to other countries and has

recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In

crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found

that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce

completions have been much higher in Ger-

man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-

zerland in recent years In 201112 around

150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the

market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2

in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the

various kinds of offi ce space on the market For

example we are skeptical about the medium-

term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-

erties (poor access to transportation and low

availability of services) on the periphery of cit-

ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-

geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-

ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be

strong expanding the labor market companies

still need to provide attractive workplaces for

their employees Easily accessible central offi ce

locations will gain even more importance Un-

der these pressures the offi ce market should

start to more clearly separate the wheat from

the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce

space is scarce should perform well while

non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle

to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral

locations will be squeezed since they are main-

ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce

functions Through renovation or new con-

structions in contrast downtown locations

should see further appreciation and attractive

returns For this reason we think rents for

high-end offi ce space should rise further

Positive appreciation rate

Despite falling interest rates and government

bond yields initial yields in the institutional

offi ce segment have hardly budged according

to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and

2009 In contrast to many European real estate

markets the appreciation rate is still positively

Commercial real estate and special uses

5

34

0ndash1

12

ndash3ndash2

2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

No drop in employment in Switzerland

Source Experian Business Services June 2010

Employment growth in financial and business services in percent

SwitzerlandEU15

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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UseObjectSettings Namespace [ (Adobe) (CreativeSuite) (20) ] PDFXOutputIntentProfileSelector DocumentCMYK PageMarksFile RomanDefault PreserveEditing true UntaggedCMYKHandling UseDocumentProfile UntaggedRGBHandling UseDocumentProfile UseDocumentBleed false gtgt ]gtgt setdistillerparamsltlt HWResolution [144 144] PageSize [612000 792000]gtgt setpagedevice

Page 14: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 201114

The leverage formula is decisive

Whenever taxes on home ownership change homeowners wonder

whether they should pay down their mortgages To answer this ques-

tion it helps to consider the leverage formula (use of debt to improve

return on equity) If the return on a long-term investment exceeds the

current mortgage rate it makes more sense to put money in long-term

investments than in extra mortgage payments If mortgage rates ex-

ceed long-term returns however it might be better to pay down the

mortgage If mortgage rates and long-term investment returns are

equal homeowners cannot improve their fi nancial situation by tweak-

ing mortgage payments Besides determining the ideal debt level we

strongly recommend diversifying Homeowners should not put all their

eggs in one basket but rather assemble a widely diversifi ed portfolio

Given the low correlation between direct real estate investments and

other asset classes portfolio construction theory recommends not

concentrating all your assets in your home

living expenses when tenants cannot deduct a

single cent

Dubious exceptions from interest

deductions

The Federal Council is hoping to satisfy its

constitutional mandate to encourage home

ownership by permitting fi rst-time home buy-

ers to claim mortgage interest deductions up

to a certain franc limit over 10 years This

ldquofi rst-time buyer deductionrdquo would also ben-

efi t high-income households which obviously

misses the point and should therefore be re-

considered Under the Federal Councilrsquos indi-

rect counterproposal taxpayers with interest

income could still off set mortgage interest

against the full amount of their interest in-

come This is also a one-sided policy that large-

ly benefi ts homeowners who can deduct mort-

gage interest from their taxable interest and

securities income

The indirect counterproposal will eliminate in-

come tax deductions for maintenance costs as

well as private mortgage interest This is a step

in the right direction A er all tenants do not

receive tax breaks on their living expenses

However the Federal Council is making excep-

tions to allow deductions on energy effi ciency

and environmental protection measures that

meet specifi c energy criteria It would be very

labor-intensive and therefore expensive to reg-

ularly defi ne and review eligible measures for

each individual homeowner A more effi cient

method would directly subsidize eco-friendly

energy systems and construction materials

The tax on imputed rental values

should be abolished

The current tax on IRV makes little economic

sense in our view If it were abolished there

would be no need for many deductions and

exceptions which is why we think the govern-

ment should simplify the tax code by com-

pletely eliminating this tax on home ownership

That way homeowners can preserve both their

homes and their sanity around tax time

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 2011 15

Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game

An estimated 520000 withdrawals have

been made from retirement accounts since

1995 The withdrawn capital is expected

to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010

The possible impact on future retirement

benefi ts remains unknown but the risks

should not be ignored

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-

ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August

1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home

ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely

low compared to other countries Raising it is

an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also

policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-

ter when they claimed the low home owner-

ship rate showed too little was being done to

reach the political goal of widespread home

ownership among the population

Swiss home ownership rate remains low

The home ownership rate was 31 percent in

1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-

ership encouragement law began to allow

prospective home buyers to pledge and with-

draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-

manently occupied homes were owner-occu-

pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now

puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent

In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared

to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in

Italy

Why the low ownership rate First condo-

minium ownership was not introduced to

Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss

rental apartment market is relatively effi cient

compared to other countries which dulls the

incentive to own a home So what caused

the spike in the home ownership rate in the

1990s In that decade home prices fell a er

the real estate bubble burst declining sharply

relative to national income Third Switzer-

landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older

ndash the cohort where home ownership is most

common Finally people have been free to

pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-

sets for home purchases since 1995 However

it is not clear whether this statutory option

has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a

bandwagon eff ect

Occupational pensions unsuitable for

encouraging home ownership

The explicit goal of the occupational pension

system ndash established in 1985 to supplement

the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system

(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of

living when the policyholder retires dies or

becomes disabled As fully funded schemes

occupational pensions represent the most

politically attractive pot of money for encour-

aging home ownership Withdrawing pension

assets however does more than reduce

future retirement benefi ts It can also lower

death and disability benefi ts if they depend

on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned

contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals

are a poor vehicle for encouraging home

ownership since they clearly undermine the

main purpose of occupational pensions to

provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in

retirement age

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as

follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves

the purpose of occupational pensions because

living expenses represent one of the largest

costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow

It ignores the need to distribute investment

risks and choose assets that off er security and

an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-

eral Act on Occupational Pensions People

who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-

Thomas Veraguth

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

In focus Residential real estate

350040004500

3000

15001000

20002500

0500

4500040000

3000035000

1500010000

2000025000

05000

0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003

Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR

Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995

Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)

Total annual amount in CHF million

UBS real estate focus January 201116

posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and

considerable risks of the real estate market for

years at a time

Total sum withdrawn remains low

The statistics tell a nuanced story of how

withdrawals are being used to fi nance home

purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-

al pension schemes has nearly doubled since

1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in

2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-

lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs

withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-

resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in

occupational pension schemes over the past

15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-

count for around 05 percent of the total capi-

tal invested in occupational pensions By com-

parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the

single-family homes and condominiums in

Switzerland had an aggregate market value of

124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages

taken out by private households amounted to

566 billion francs in September 2010

The withdrawal statistics also harbor another

surprise the continuity of the amounts with-

drawn The average withdrawal has remained

within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000

Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked

in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-

sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for

680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-

counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred

by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of

annuities and lump-sum payments and 167

percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and

cash payments The 2009 percentages were

roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively

Moderation is key

From an economic perspective certain poten-

tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-

sion to allow consumers to make early pen-

sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily

consumers have exercised considerable self-

restraint as indicated by the data on the

number of withdrawals and total money with-

drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all

members of occupational pension schemes

make withdrawals each year This is in part

due to restrictions inserted in the legislation

by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals

As a result we are cautiously optimistic about

the future of home fi nancing but recommend

pledges over withdrawals

In focus Residential real estate

Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals

Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since

1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to

prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes

make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-

portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are

nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-

ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common

for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However

there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys

by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-

theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-

ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home

Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of

Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-

ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007

For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed

carefully when purchasing a home

UBS real estate focus January 2011 17

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for

greater comfort and higher living stand-

ards Already established abroad this

model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-

zerland

Greater prosperity and a steadily growing

number of small households are driving demand

for new models of living with integrated ser-

vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-

nants and senior citizens The upper middle

class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income

no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free

time on tedious errands or exhausting chores

Even young families are increasingly discovering

the modelrsquos benefi ts

Growing importance of new models

of living

Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-

ing needs Over the years we have seen the

emergence of nursing homes independent liv-

ing and assisted-living communities There is

now an even richer more diverse menu of

options ranging from boarding houses to full-

service living While this latest model may re-

main a niche product for several years we think

demand will stay strong for the foreseeable

future thanks to demographic change growing

interest in support and services and a greater

overall need for higher living standards Of-

ferings need to be aligned with target group

needs and interests though Our experience

with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project

shows that models should be tailored to both

the target group and local conditions

James ndash Full-service Living

The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the

brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-

erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the

fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex

in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009

the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-

sion Fund Assets built a second James complex

in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-

four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-

cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third

James complex is under construction in Winter-

thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-

2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-

ping thanks to a direct connection between the

roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center

restaurants and a parking garage

The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects

todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not

only modern communication technologies (In-

ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-

tion (James is physically on the premises) At a

James complex rent includes a wide array of

concierge services such as receiving guests

accepting packages and purchases or reserving

concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to

mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services

such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet

care plant watering or vacation service These

services are billed separately under a pay-as-

you-go scheme

Components of full-service living

Home concierge services are new to Switzer-

land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-

nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it

mainly designates French superintendents or

caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-

cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-

sive personal services for tenants and visitors as

well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-

tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-

yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-

ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The

James concept embraces this principle When

tenants and visitors enter a James apartment

complex it should be readily apparent that this

is more than just a place to live The James ndash

Full-service Living concept can also adapt to

Patric Caillat

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Possible concept for full-service living

Source UBS GRE Switzerland

The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo

Living as a core service

Basic services included in rent

Agrave la carte services

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 201118

residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time

thanks to its extensive modular service off ering

The program is based on three components

residential use integrated basic services and

additional agrave la carte services

The apartment is the core service and as such

must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in

terms of location infrastructure amenities and

aesthetics The rent must also include several

basic services that are important to the target

groups This diff erentiates James from a regular

apartment complex Residents can also use

many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply

pick the services they need and pay for them

separately which makes the apartment some-

thing like a hotel To be successful the concept

has to combine these elements intelligently

while taking local circumstances into account

Other models on the market

Several models with slightly diff erent approach-

es have been launched in recent years Besides

James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-

set Management other full-service models in-

clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real

Estate Asset Management department and

ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG

Combining services with attractive living can

give a property its own unique character and

ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps

support intelligent real estate marketing How-

ever full-service living can only work if the

services benefi t users operators and owners

alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-

perience with such models it certainly has the

conditions and outlook needed to achieve a

win-win situation

Added value at an attractive price

ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work

users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat

value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to

tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er

all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-

cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go

scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start

Who is the target audience What services do they want While this

might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos

success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are

handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts

will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-

tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo

changing needs

In focus Residential real estate

Commercial real estate and special uses

The market separates the wheat from the chaff

UBS real estate focus January 201120

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in rela-

tively good shape We expect price pres-

sure from tenants to widen the perform-

ance gap between central and peripheral

locations

Offi ce space is the most important sector of

the Swiss commercial real estate market The

commercial property market was estimated

to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end

of 2009 according to Investment Property

Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this

total was offi ce space while retail properties

made up 377 percent and industrial real es-

tate 35 percent

Stable demand factors

Besides being large the offi ce property seg-

ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-

ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the

total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of

Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and

business services represent over 18 percent of

total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-

centage compared to other countries The

Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-

where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-

tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-

tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos

growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still

remained positive Part-time employment is

also becoming more widespread in Switzer-

land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies

are focusing on boosting employee productiv-

ity Future employment growth looks likely to

be moderate as a result

Rising importance of quality

The prospect of slow but positive employment

growth highlights the importance of analyzing

the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates

range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is

moderate compared to other countries and has

recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In

crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found

that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce

completions have been much higher in Ger-

man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-

zerland in recent years In 201112 around

150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the

market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2

in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the

various kinds of offi ce space on the market For

example we are skeptical about the medium-

term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-

erties (poor access to transportation and low

availability of services) on the periphery of cit-

ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-

geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-

ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be

strong expanding the labor market companies

still need to provide attractive workplaces for

their employees Easily accessible central offi ce

locations will gain even more importance Un-

der these pressures the offi ce market should

start to more clearly separate the wheat from

the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce

space is scarce should perform well while

non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle

to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral

locations will be squeezed since they are main-

ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce

functions Through renovation or new con-

structions in contrast downtown locations

should see further appreciation and attractive

returns For this reason we think rents for

high-end offi ce space should rise further

Positive appreciation rate

Despite falling interest rates and government

bond yields initial yields in the institutional

offi ce segment have hardly budged according

to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and

2009 In contrast to many European real estate

markets the appreciation rate is still positively

Commercial real estate and special uses

5

34

0ndash1

12

ndash3ndash2

2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

No drop in employment in Switzerland

Source Experian Business Services June 2010

Employment growth in financial and business services in percent

SwitzerlandEU15

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 15: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 2011 15

Occupational pension withdrawals ndash a dangerous game

An estimated 520000 withdrawals have

been made from retirement accounts since

1995 The withdrawn capital is expected

to exceed 35 billion Swiss francs in 2010

The possible impact on future retirement

benefi ts remains unknown but the risks

should not be ignored

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownership with Occupational Retire-

ment Assetsrdquo was published in the August

1992 Federal Gazette It states ldquoThe home

ownership rate in Switzerland is extremely

low compared to other countries Raising it is

an urgent national and social priorityrdquo Also

policymakers tended to oversimplify the mat-

ter when they claimed the low home owner-

ship rate showed too little was being done to

reach the political goal of widespread home

ownership among the population

Swiss home ownership rate remains low

The home ownership rate was 31 percent in

1990 By 2000 fi ve years a er a home own-

ership encouragement law began to allow

prospective home buyers to pledge and with-

draw pension assets 346 percent of all per-

manently occupied homes were owner-occu-

pied The Swiss Federal Housing Offi ce now

puts the home ownership rate at 39 percent

In Germany the rate is 42 percent compared

to 57 percent in France and 70 percent in

Italy

Why the low ownership rate First condo-

minium ownership was not introduced to

Switzerland until 1965 Second the Swiss

rental apartment market is relatively effi cient

compared to other countries which dulls the

incentive to own a home So what caused

the spike in the home ownership rate in the

1990s In that decade home prices fell a er

the real estate bubble burst declining sharply

relative to national income Third Switzer-

landrsquos ldquobaby boomersrdquo are now 40 and older

ndash the cohort where home ownership is most

common Finally people have been free to

pledge or withdraw occupational pension as-

sets for home purchases since 1995 However

it is not clear whether this statutory option

has acted as a genuine incentive or only had a

bandwagon eff ect

Occupational pensions unsuitable for

encouraging home ownership

The explicit goal of the occupational pension

system ndash established in 1985 to supplement

the old age and survivorsrsquo pension system

(AHV) ndash is to maintain a certain standard of

living when the policyholder retires dies or

becomes disabled As fully funded schemes

occupational pensions represent the most

politically attractive pot of money for encour-

aging home ownership Withdrawing pension

assets however does more than reduce

future retirement benefi ts It can also lower

death and disability benefi ts if they depend

on the amount of built-up capital (defi ned

contribution plan) Thus pension withdrawals

are a poor vehicle for encouraging home

ownership since they clearly undermine the

main purpose of occupational pensions to

provide an annuity or lump-sum payout in

retirement age

The ldquoDispatch on the Encouragement of

Home Ownershiprdquo shrugs off doubts as

follows ldquoEncouraging home ownership serves

the purpose of occupational pensions because

living expenses represent one of the largest

costs for retireesrdquo But this claim rings hollow

It ignores the need to distribute investment

risks and choose assets that off er security and

an adequate return ndash as stipulated by the Fed-

eral Act on Occupational Pensions People

who withdraw pension assets are fully ex-

Thomas Veraguth

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

In focus Residential real estate

350040004500

3000

15001000

20002500

0500

4500040000

3000035000

1500010000

2000025000

05000

0995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Pension withdrawals relatively constant since 2003

Sources EDI ESTV UBS WMR

Total amount and number of withdrawals per year since 1995

Number of annual withdrawals (right-hand scale)

Total annual amount in CHF million

UBS real estate focus January 201116

posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and

considerable risks of the real estate market for

years at a time

Total sum withdrawn remains low

The statistics tell a nuanced story of how

withdrawals are being used to fi nance home

purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-

al pension schemes has nearly doubled since

1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in

2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-

lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs

withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-

resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in

occupational pension schemes over the past

15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-

count for around 05 percent of the total capi-

tal invested in occupational pensions By com-

parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the

single-family homes and condominiums in

Switzerland had an aggregate market value of

124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages

taken out by private households amounted to

566 billion francs in September 2010

The withdrawal statistics also harbor another

surprise the continuity of the amounts with-

drawn The average withdrawal has remained

within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000

Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked

in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-

sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for

680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-

counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred

by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of

annuities and lump-sum payments and 167

percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and

cash payments The 2009 percentages were

roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively

Moderation is key

From an economic perspective certain poten-

tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-

sion to allow consumers to make early pen-

sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily

consumers have exercised considerable self-

restraint as indicated by the data on the

number of withdrawals and total money with-

drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all

members of occupational pension schemes

make withdrawals each year This is in part

due to restrictions inserted in the legislation

by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals

As a result we are cautiously optimistic about

the future of home fi nancing but recommend

pledges over withdrawals

In focus Residential real estate

Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals

Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since

1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to

prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes

make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-

portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are

nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-

ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common

for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However

there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys

by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-

theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-

ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home

Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of

Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-

ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007

For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed

carefully when purchasing a home

UBS real estate focus January 2011 17

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for

greater comfort and higher living stand-

ards Already established abroad this

model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-

zerland

Greater prosperity and a steadily growing

number of small households are driving demand

for new models of living with integrated ser-

vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-

nants and senior citizens The upper middle

class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income

no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free

time on tedious errands or exhausting chores

Even young families are increasingly discovering

the modelrsquos benefi ts

Growing importance of new models

of living

Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-

ing needs Over the years we have seen the

emergence of nursing homes independent liv-

ing and assisted-living communities There is

now an even richer more diverse menu of

options ranging from boarding houses to full-

service living While this latest model may re-

main a niche product for several years we think

demand will stay strong for the foreseeable

future thanks to demographic change growing

interest in support and services and a greater

overall need for higher living standards Of-

ferings need to be aligned with target group

needs and interests though Our experience

with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project

shows that models should be tailored to both

the target group and local conditions

James ndash Full-service Living

The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the

brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-

erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the

fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex

in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009

the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-

sion Fund Assets built a second James complex

in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-

four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-

cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third

James complex is under construction in Winter-

thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-

2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-

ping thanks to a direct connection between the

roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center

restaurants and a parking garage

The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects

todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not

only modern communication technologies (In-

ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-

tion (James is physically on the premises) At a

James complex rent includes a wide array of

concierge services such as receiving guests

accepting packages and purchases or reserving

concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to

mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services

such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet

care plant watering or vacation service These

services are billed separately under a pay-as-

you-go scheme

Components of full-service living

Home concierge services are new to Switzer-

land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-

nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it

mainly designates French superintendents or

caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-

cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-

sive personal services for tenants and visitors as

well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-

tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-

yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-

ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The

James concept embraces this principle When

tenants and visitors enter a James apartment

complex it should be readily apparent that this

is more than just a place to live The James ndash

Full-service Living concept can also adapt to

Patric Caillat

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Possible concept for full-service living

Source UBS GRE Switzerland

The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo

Living as a core service

Basic services included in rent

Agrave la carte services

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 201118

residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time

thanks to its extensive modular service off ering

The program is based on three components

residential use integrated basic services and

additional agrave la carte services

The apartment is the core service and as such

must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in

terms of location infrastructure amenities and

aesthetics The rent must also include several

basic services that are important to the target

groups This diff erentiates James from a regular

apartment complex Residents can also use

many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply

pick the services they need and pay for them

separately which makes the apartment some-

thing like a hotel To be successful the concept

has to combine these elements intelligently

while taking local circumstances into account

Other models on the market

Several models with slightly diff erent approach-

es have been launched in recent years Besides

James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-

set Management other full-service models in-

clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real

Estate Asset Management department and

ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG

Combining services with attractive living can

give a property its own unique character and

ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps

support intelligent real estate marketing How-

ever full-service living can only work if the

services benefi t users operators and owners

alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-

perience with such models it certainly has the

conditions and outlook needed to achieve a

win-win situation

Added value at an attractive price

ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work

users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat

value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to

tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er

all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-

cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go

scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start

Who is the target audience What services do they want While this

might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos

success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are

handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts

will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-

tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo

changing needs

In focus Residential real estate

Commercial real estate and special uses

The market separates the wheat from the chaff

UBS real estate focus January 201120

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in rela-

tively good shape We expect price pres-

sure from tenants to widen the perform-

ance gap between central and peripheral

locations

Offi ce space is the most important sector of

the Swiss commercial real estate market The

commercial property market was estimated

to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end

of 2009 according to Investment Property

Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this

total was offi ce space while retail properties

made up 377 percent and industrial real es-

tate 35 percent

Stable demand factors

Besides being large the offi ce property seg-

ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-

ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the

total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of

Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and

business services represent over 18 percent of

total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-

centage compared to other countries The

Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-

where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-

tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-

tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos

growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still

remained positive Part-time employment is

also becoming more widespread in Switzer-

land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies

are focusing on boosting employee productiv-

ity Future employment growth looks likely to

be moderate as a result

Rising importance of quality

The prospect of slow but positive employment

growth highlights the importance of analyzing

the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates

range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is

moderate compared to other countries and has

recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In

crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found

that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce

completions have been much higher in Ger-

man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-

zerland in recent years In 201112 around

150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the

market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2

in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the

various kinds of offi ce space on the market For

example we are skeptical about the medium-

term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-

erties (poor access to transportation and low

availability of services) on the periphery of cit-

ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-

geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-

ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be

strong expanding the labor market companies

still need to provide attractive workplaces for

their employees Easily accessible central offi ce

locations will gain even more importance Un-

der these pressures the offi ce market should

start to more clearly separate the wheat from

the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce

space is scarce should perform well while

non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle

to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral

locations will be squeezed since they are main-

ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce

functions Through renovation or new con-

structions in contrast downtown locations

should see further appreciation and attractive

returns For this reason we think rents for

high-end offi ce space should rise further

Positive appreciation rate

Despite falling interest rates and government

bond yields initial yields in the institutional

offi ce segment have hardly budged according

to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and

2009 In contrast to many European real estate

markets the appreciation rate is still positively

Commercial real estate and special uses

5

34

0ndash1

12

ndash3ndash2

2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

No drop in employment in Switzerland

Source Experian Business Services June 2010

Employment growth in financial and business services in percent

SwitzerlandEU15

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 16: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 201116

posed to the one-sided non-diversifi able and

considerable risks of the real estate market for

years at a time

Total sum withdrawn remains low

The statistics tell a nuanced story of how

withdrawals are being used to fi nance home

purchases The capital invested in occupatio n-

al pension schemes has nearly doubled since

1995 reaching 600 billion Swiss francs in

2009 The total increase was almost 290 bil-

lion francs which dwarfs the 35 billion francs

withdrawn between 1995 and 2009 This rep-

resents just 12 percent of the capital growth in

occupational pension schemes over the past

15 years On average annual withdrawals ac-

count for around 05 percent of the total capi-

tal invested in occupational pensions By com-

parison Wuumlest amp Partner estimates that all the

single-family homes and condominiums in

Switzerland had an aggregate market value of

124 trillion Swiss francs in 2010 Mortgages

taken out by private households amounted to

566 billion francs in September 2010

The withdrawal statistics also harbor another

surprise the continuity of the amounts with-

drawn The average withdrawal has remained

within a tight corridor of 60000 to 73000

Swiss francs since 1995 The average peaked

in 2003 at 73160 francs This is not an exces-

sive amount A typical Swiss home sells for

680000 francs In 1995 withdrawals ac-

counted for 6 percent of all expenses incurred

by Swiss occupational pensions consisting of

annuities and lump-sum payments and 167

percent of all the schemesrsquo lump-sum and

cash payments The 2009 percentages were

roughly 6 and 22 percent respectively

Moderation is key

From an economic perspective certain poten-

tial problems arise from the legislaturersquos deci-

sion to allow consumers to make early pen-

sion withdrawals for home purchases Luckily

consumers have exercised considerable self-

restraint as indicated by the data on the

number of withdrawals and total money with-

drawn per year Less than 1 percent of all

members of occupational pension schemes

make withdrawals each year This is in part

due to restrictions inserted in the legislation

by lawmakers such as a tax on withdrawals

As a result we are cautiously optimistic about

the future of home fi nancing but recommend

pledges over withdrawals

In focus Residential real estate

Weighing the pros and cons of withdrawals

Pension withdrawals have been allowed for home purchases since

1995 Home ownership is conventionally viewed as a sound way to

prepare for retirement The reality is diff erent in our view Homes

make unattractive alternatives to capital investment given their op-

portunity costs and loss in value due to aging Pension assets are

nonetheless used in up to one fi h of all purchases of existing proper-

ties and one third of new ones Withdrawals are particularly common

for ldquothreshold householdsrdquo (low income low savings rate) However

there are no current offi cial impact analyses In 2004 written surveys

by Hornung revealed that withdrawals play an important role Never-

theless the question remains open as to whether less affl uent employ-

ees are cutting their future benefi ts too heavily by purchasing a home

Impact analyses used to be the responsibility of the Federal Offi ce of

Social Insurance under Article 18 of the Home Ownership Encourage-

ment Ordinance ndash until this Article was abolished on 22 August 2007

For these reasons the pros and cons of a withdrawal must be weighed

carefully when purchasing a home

UBS real estate focus January 2011 17

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for

greater comfort and higher living stand-

ards Already established abroad this

model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-

zerland

Greater prosperity and a steadily growing

number of small households are driving demand

for new models of living with integrated ser-

vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-

nants and senior citizens The upper middle

class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income

no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free

time on tedious errands or exhausting chores

Even young families are increasingly discovering

the modelrsquos benefi ts

Growing importance of new models

of living

Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-

ing needs Over the years we have seen the

emergence of nursing homes independent liv-

ing and assisted-living communities There is

now an even richer more diverse menu of

options ranging from boarding houses to full-

service living While this latest model may re-

main a niche product for several years we think

demand will stay strong for the foreseeable

future thanks to demographic change growing

interest in support and services and a greater

overall need for higher living standards Of-

ferings need to be aligned with target group

needs and interests though Our experience

with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project

shows that models should be tailored to both

the target group and local conditions

James ndash Full-service Living

The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the

brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-

erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the

fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex

in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009

the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-

sion Fund Assets built a second James complex

in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-

four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-

cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third

James complex is under construction in Winter-

thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-

2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-

ping thanks to a direct connection between the

roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center

restaurants and a parking garage

The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects

todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not

only modern communication technologies (In-

ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-

tion (James is physically on the premises) At a

James complex rent includes a wide array of

concierge services such as receiving guests

accepting packages and purchases or reserving

concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to

mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services

such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet

care plant watering or vacation service These

services are billed separately under a pay-as-

you-go scheme

Components of full-service living

Home concierge services are new to Switzer-

land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-

nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it

mainly designates French superintendents or

caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-

cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-

sive personal services for tenants and visitors as

well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-

tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-

yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-

ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The

James concept embraces this principle When

tenants and visitors enter a James apartment

complex it should be readily apparent that this

is more than just a place to live The James ndash

Full-service Living concept can also adapt to

Patric Caillat

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Possible concept for full-service living

Source UBS GRE Switzerland

The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo

Living as a core service

Basic services included in rent

Agrave la carte services

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 201118

residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time

thanks to its extensive modular service off ering

The program is based on three components

residential use integrated basic services and

additional agrave la carte services

The apartment is the core service and as such

must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in

terms of location infrastructure amenities and

aesthetics The rent must also include several

basic services that are important to the target

groups This diff erentiates James from a regular

apartment complex Residents can also use

many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply

pick the services they need and pay for them

separately which makes the apartment some-

thing like a hotel To be successful the concept

has to combine these elements intelligently

while taking local circumstances into account

Other models on the market

Several models with slightly diff erent approach-

es have been launched in recent years Besides

James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-

set Management other full-service models in-

clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real

Estate Asset Management department and

ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG

Combining services with attractive living can

give a property its own unique character and

ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps

support intelligent real estate marketing How-

ever full-service living can only work if the

services benefi t users operators and owners

alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-

perience with such models it certainly has the

conditions and outlook needed to achieve a

win-win situation

Added value at an attractive price

ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work

users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat

value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to

tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er

all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-

cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go

scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start

Who is the target audience What services do they want While this

might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos

success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are

handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts

will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-

tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo

changing needs

In focus Residential real estate

Commercial real estate and special uses

The market separates the wheat from the chaff

UBS real estate focus January 201120

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in rela-

tively good shape We expect price pres-

sure from tenants to widen the perform-

ance gap between central and peripheral

locations

Offi ce space is the most important sector of

the Swiss commercial real estate market The

commercial property market was estimated

to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end

of 2009 according to Investment Property

Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this

total was offi ce space while retail properties

made up 377 percent and industrial real es-

tate 35 percent

Stable demand factors

Besides being large the offi ce property seg-

ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-

ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the

total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of

Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and

business services represent over 18 percent of

total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-

centage compared to other countries The

Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-

where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-

tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-

tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos

growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still

remained positive Part-time employment is

also becoming more widespread in Switzer-

land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies

are focusing on boosting employee productiv-

ity Future employment growth looks likely to

be moderate as a result

Rising importance of quality

The prospect of slow but positive employment

growth highlights the importance of analyzing

the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates

range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is

moderate compared to other countries and has

recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In

crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found

that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce

completions have been much higher in Ger-

man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-

zerland in recent years In 201112 around

150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the

market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2

in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the

various kinds of offi ce space on the market For

example we are skeptical about the medium-

term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-

erties (poor access to transportation and low

availability of services) on the periphery of cit-

ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-

geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-

ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be

strong expanding the labor market companies

still need to provide attractive workplaces for

their employees Easily accessible central offi ce

locations will gain even more importance Un-

der these pressures the offi ce market should

start to more clearly separate the wheat from

the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce

space is scarce should perform well while

non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle

to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral

locations will be squeezed since they are main-

ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce

functions Through renovation or new con-

structions in contrast downtown locations

should see further appreciation and attractive

returns For this reason we think rents for

high-end offi ce space should rise further

Positive appreciation rate

Despite falling interest rates and government

bond yields initial yields in the institutional

offi ce segment have hardly budged according

to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and

2009 In contrast to many European real estate

markets the appreciation rate is still positively

Commercial real estate and special uses

5

34

0ndash1

12

ndash3ndash2

2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

No drop in employment in Switzerland

Source Experian Business Services June 2010

Employment growth in financial and business services in percent

SwitzerlandEU15

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 17: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 2011 17

Full-service living ndash a hot new trend

Full-service living is an innovative concept

that caters to urban residentsrsquo demand for

greater comfort and higher living stand-

ards Already established abroad this

model is fast gaining adherents in Swit-

zerland

Greater prosperity and a steadily growing

number of small households are driving demand

for new models of living with integrated ser-

vices This trend extends beyond wealthy te-

nants and senior citizens The upper middle

class including many ldquoDINKsrdquo ndash double income

no kids ndash is less willing to spend precious free

time on tedious errands or exhausting chores

Even young families are increasingly discovering

the modelrsquos benefi ts

Growing importance of new models

of living

Living models have adapted to peoplersquos chang-

ing needs Over the years we have seen the

emergence of nursing homes independent liv-

ing and assisted-living communities There is

now an even richer more diverse menu of

options ranging from boarding houses to full-

service living While this latest model may re-

main a niche product for several years we think

demand will stay strong for the foreseeable

future thanks to demographic change growing

interest in support and services and a greater

overall need for higher living standards Of-

ferings need to be aligned with target group

needs and interests though Our experience

with the ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo project

shows that models should be tailored to both

the target group and local conditions

James ndash Full-service Living

The James ndash Full-service Living concept is the

brainchild of our real estate fund UBS (CH) Prop-

erty Fund ndash Swiss Mixed ldquoSimardquo In 2007 the

fund opened the fi rst James apartment complex

in Zurich with around 280 apartments In 2009

the UBS Foundation for the Investment of Pen-

sion Fund Assets built a second James complex

in Lausanne tailored to the local area Thirty-

four of the 114 apartments were designed spe-

cifi cally for older or disabled residents The third

James complex is under construction in Winter-

thur and will open its doors to tenants in mid-

2011 It conveniently combines living and shop-

ping thanks to a direct connection between the

roughly 150 apartments and a shopping center

restaurants and a parking garage

The James ndash Full-service Living concept refl ects

todayrsquos needs and lifestyles It embraces not

only modern communication technologies (In-

ternet e-mail) but also direct personal interac-

tion (James is physically on the premises) At a

James complex rent includes a wide array of

concierge services such as receiving guests

accepting packages and purchases or reserving

concert tickets or tables at restaurants Not to

mention a broad selection of agrave la carte services

such as laundry service apartment cleaning pet

care plant watering or vacation service These

services are billed separately under a pay-as-

you-go scheme

Components of full-service living

Home concierge services are new to Switzer-

land ldquoConciergerdquo is a French word that origi-

nally described the castle gatekeeper Today it

mainly designates French superintendents or

caretakers of residential buildings But ldquocon-

cierge servicerdquo increasingly refers to comprehen-

sive personal services for tenants and visitors as

well The word is commonly used in luxury ho-

tels where a conciergersquos duties extend far be-

yond receiving guests Concierges are complete-

ly at the disposal of a discerning clientele The

James concept embraces this principle When

tenants and visitors enter a James apartment

complex it should be readily apparent that this

is more than just a place to live The James ndash

Full-service Living concept can also adapt to

Patric Caillat

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Possible concept for full-service living

Source UBS GRE Switzerland

The three components of ldquoJames ndash Full-service Livingrdquo

Living as a core service

Basic services included in rent

Agrave la carte services

In focus Residential real estate

UBS real estate focus January 201118

residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time

thanks to its extensive modular service off ering

The program is based on three components

residential use integrated basic services and

additional agrave la carte services

The apartment is the core service and as such

must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in

terms of location infrastructure amenities and

aesthetics The rent must also include several

basic services that are important to the target

groups This diff erentiates James from a regular

apartment complex Residents can also use

many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply

pick the services they need and pay for them

separately which makes the apartment some-

thing like a hotel To be successful the concept

has to combine these elements intelligently

while taking local circumstances into account

Other models on the market

Several models with slightly diff erent approach-

es have been launched in recent years Besides

James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-

set Management other full-service models in-

clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real

Estate Asset Management department and

ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG

Combining services with attractive living can

give a property its own unique character and

ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps

support intelligent real estate marketing How-

ever full-service living can only work if the

services benefi t users operators and owners

alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-

perience with such models it certainly has the

conditions and outlook needed to achieve a

win-win situation

Added value at an attractive price

ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work

users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat

value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to

tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er

all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-

cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go

scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start

Who is the target audience What services do they want While this

might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos

success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are

handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts

will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-

tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo

changing needs

In focus Residential real estate

Commercial real estate and special uses

The market separates the wheat from the chaff

UBS real estate focus January 201120

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in rela-

tively good shape We expect price pres-

sure from tenants to widen the perform-

ance gap between central and peripheral

locations

Offi ce space is the most important sector of

the Swiss commercial real estate market The

commercial property market was estimated

to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end

of 2009 according to Investment Property

Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this

total was offi ce space while retail properties

made up 377 percent and industrial real es-

tate 35 percent

Stable demand factors

Besides being large the offi ce property seg-

ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-

ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the

total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of

Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and

business services represent over 18 percent of

total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-

centage compared to other countries The

Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-

where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-

tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-

tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos

growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still

remained positive Part-time employment is

also becoming more widespread in Switzer-

land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies

are focusing on boosting employee productiv-

ity Future employment growth looks likely to

be moderate as a result

Rising importance of quality

The prospect of slow but positive employment

growth highlights the importance of analyzing

the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates

range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is

moderate compared to other countries and has

recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In

crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found

that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce

completions have been much higher in Ger-

man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-

zerland in recent years In 201112 around

150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the

market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2

in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the

various kinds of offi ce space on the market For

example we are skeptical about the medium-

term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-

erties (poor access to transportation and low

availability of services) on the periphery of cit-

ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-

geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-

ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be

strong expanding the labor market companies

still need to provide attractive workplaces for

their employees Easily accessible central offi ce

locations will gain even more importance Un-

der these pressures the offi ce market should

start to more clearly separate the wheat from

the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce

space is scarce should perform well while

non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle

to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral

locations will be squeezed since they are main-

ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce

functions Through renovation or new con-

structions in contrast downtown locations

should see further appreciation and attractive

returns For this reason we think rents for

high-end offi ce space should rise further

Positive appreciation rate

Despite falling interest rates and government

bond yields initial yields in the institutional

offi ce segment have hardly budged according

to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and

2009 In contrast to many European real estate

markets the appreciation rate is still positively

Commercial real estate and special uses

5

34

0ndash1

12

ndash3ndash2

2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

No drop in employment in Switzerland

Source Experian Business Services June 2010

Employment growth in financial and business services in percent

SwitzerlandEU15

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 18: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 201118

residentsrsquo new and changing needs over time

thanks to its extensive modular service off ering

The program is based on three components

residential use integrated basic services and

additional agrave la carte services

The apartment is the core service and as such

must perfectly satisfy tenantsrsquo requirements in

terms of location infrastructure amenities and

aesthetics The rent must also include several

basic services that are important to the target

groups This diff erentiates James from a regular

apartment complex Residents can also use

many diff erent agrave la carte services They simply

pick the services they need and pay for them

separately which makes the apartment some-

thing like a hotel To be successful the concept

has to combine these elements intelligently

while taking local circumstances into account

Other models on the market

Several models with slightly diff erent approach-

es have been launched in recent years Besides

James ndash Full-service Living from UBS Global As-

set Management other full-service models in-

clude ldquoLiving Servicesrdquo from Credit Suissersquos Real

Estate Asset Management department and

ldquoBonacasardquo from Bracher und Partner AG

Combining services with attractive living can

give a property its own unique character and

ensure its long-term appeal This fact helps

support intelligent real estate marketing How-

ever full-service living can only work if the

services benefi t users operators and owners

alike While Switzerland has no long-term ex-

perience with such models it certainly has the

conditions and outlook needed to achieve a

win-win situation

Added value at an attractive price

ldquoFull-service livingrdquo seems to be a growing demand For it to work

users and operators will have to answer a crucial question ldquoWhat

value do the services providerdquo They should off er tangible benefi ts to

tenants And they should pay off for the landlord or operator A er

all they are not provided for free in any model Either they are in-

cluded in the rent or they are charged according to a pay-as-you-go

scheme Several key questions have to be answered from the start

Who is the target audience What services do they want While this

might seem trivial at fi rst glance experience shows that the venturersquos

success or failure depends on precisely these issues and how they are

handled in practice Over the long term full-service living concepts

will only succeed if they provide tenants with added value at an at-

tractive price The program must also be able to adapt to residentsrsquo

changing needs

In focus Residential real estate

Commercial real estate and special uses

The market separates the wheat from the chaff

UBS real estate focus January 201120

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in rela-

tively good shape We expect price pres-

sure from tenants to widen the perform-

ance gap between central and peripheral

locations

Offi ce space is the most important sector of

the Swiss commercial real estate market The

commercial property market was estimated

to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end

of 2009 according to Investment Property

Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this

total was offi ce space while retail properties

made up 377 percent and industrial real es-

tate 35 percent

Stable demand factors

Besides being large the offi ce property seg-

ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-

ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the

total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of

Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and

business services represent over 18 percent of

total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-

centage compared to other countries The

Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-

where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-

tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-

tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos

growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still

remained positive Part-time employment is

also becoming more widespread in Switzer-

land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies

are focusing on boosting employee productiv-

ity Future employment growth looks likely to

be moderate as a result

Rising importance of quality

The prospect of slow but positive employment

growth highlights the importance of analyzing

the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates

range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is

moderate compared to other countries and has

recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In

crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found

that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce

completions have been much higher in Ger-

man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-

zerland in recent years In 201112 around

150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the

market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2

in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the

various kinds of offi ce space on the market For

example we are skeptical about the medium-

term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-

erties (poor access to transportation and low

availability of services) on the periphery of cit-

ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-

geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-

ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be

strong expanding the labor market companies

still need to provide attractive workplaces for

their employees Easily accessible central offi ce

locations will gain even more importance Un-

der these pressures the offi ce market should

start to more clearly separate the wheat from

the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce

space is scarce should perform well while

non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle

to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral

locations will be squeezed since they are main-

ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce

functions Through renovation or new con-

structions in contrast downtown locations

should see further appreciation and attractive

returns For this reason we think rents for

high-end offi ce space should rise further

Positive appreciation rate

Despite falling interest rates and government

bond yields initial yields in the institutional

offi ce segment have hardly budged according

to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and

2009 In contrast to many European real estate

markets the appreciation rate is still positively

Commercial real estate and special uses

5

34

0ndash1

12

ndash3ndash2

2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

No drop in employment in Switzerland

Source Experian Business Services June 2010

Employment growth in financial and business services in percent

SwitzerlandEU15

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 19: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

Commercial real estate and special uses

The market separates the wheat from the chaff

UBS real estate focus January 201120

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in rela-

tively good shape We expect price pres-

sure from tenants to widen the perform-

ance gap between central and peripheral

locations

Offi ce space is the most important sector of

the Swiss commercial real estate market The

commercial property market was estimated

to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end

of 2009 according to Investment Property

Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this

total was offi ce space while retail properties

made up 377 percent and industrial real es-

tate 35 percent

Stable demand factors

Besides being large the offi ce property seg-

ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-

ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the

total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of

Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and

business services represent over 18 percent of

total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-

centage compared to other countries The

Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-

where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-

tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-

tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos

growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still

remained positive Part-time employment is

also becoming more widespread in Switzer-

land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies

are focusing on boosting employee productiv-

ity Future employment growth looks likely to

be moderate as a result

Rising importance of quality

The prospect of slow but positive employment

growth highlights the importance of analyzing

the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates

range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is

moderate compared to other countries and has

recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In

crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found

that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce

completions have been much higher in Ger-

man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-

zerland in recent years In 201112 around

150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the

market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2

in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the

various kinds of offi ce space on the market For

example we are skeptical about the medium-

term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-

erties (poor access to transportation and low

availability of services) on the periphery of cit-

ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-

geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-

ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be

strong expanding the labor market companies

still need to provide attractive workplaces for

their employees Easily accessible central offi ce

locations will gain even more importance Un-

der these pressures the offi ce market should

start to more clearly separate the wheat from

the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce

space is scarce should perform well while

non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle

to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral

locations will be squeezed since they are main-

ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce

functions Through renovation or new con-

structions in contrast downtown locations

should see further appreciation and attractive

returns For this reason we think rents for

high-end offi ce space should rise further

Positive appreciation rate

Despite falling interest rates and government

bond yields initial yields in the institutional

offi ce segment have hardly budged according

to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and

2009 In contrast to many European real estate

markets the appreciation rate is still positively

Commercial real estate and special uses

5

34

0ndash1

12

ndash3ndash2

2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

No drop in employment in Switzerland

Source Experian Business Services June 2010

Employment growth in financial and business services in percent

SwitzerlandEU15

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 20: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 201120

Offi ce properties ndash separating the wheat from the chaff

The Swiss offi ce property market came

through the global economic crisis in rela-

tively good shape We expect price pres-

sure from tenants to widen the perform-

ance gap between central and peripheral

locations

Offi ce space is the most important sector of

the Swiss commercial real estate market The

commercial property market was estimated

to be worth 68 billion Swiss francs at the end

of 2009 according to Investment Property

Databank (IPD) Some 588 percent of this

total was offi ce space while retail properties

made up 377 percent and industrial real es-

tate 35 percent

Stable demand factors

Besides being large the offi ce property seg-

ment also refl ects Switzerlandrsquos federal struc-

ture even though 17 and 10 percent of the

total offi ce space lies in the fi nancial centers of

Zurich and Geneva respectively Financial and

business services represent over 18 percent of

total employment in Switzerland ndash a high per-

centage compared to other countries The

Swiss fi nancial industry unlike its peers else-

where exited the global fi nancial crisis rela-

tively unscathed While the EUrsquos fi nancial sec-

tor shed jobs at a rapid rate Switzerlandrsquos

growth rate merely slackened in 2009 but still

remained positive Part-time employment is

also becoming more widespread in Switzer-

land As elsewhere in Europe Swiss companies

are focusing on boosting employee productiv-

ity Future employment growth looks likely to

be moderate as a result

Rising importance of quality

The prospect of slow but positive employment

growth highlights the importance of analyzing

the supply of offi ce space Offi ce vacancy rates

range from 2 to 6 percent in Swiss cities This is

moderate compared to other countries and has

recently fueled growth in offi ce rental rates In

crisis-stricken 2009 for example IPD found

that Swiss offi ce rents rose 1 percent Offi ce

completions have been much higher in Ger-

man-speaking Switzerland than western Swit-

zerland in recent years In 201112 around

150000 msup2 of new offi ce space will enter the

market in Zurich compared to only 60000 msup2

in Geneva It is important to diff erentiate the

various kinds of offi ce space on the market For

example we are skeptical about the medium-

term prospects of non-integrated offi ce prop-

erties (poor access to transportation and low

availability of services) on the periphery of cit-

ies and urban agglomerations given the bur-

geoning interest in environmental sustainabil-

ity Even if immigration infl ows continue to be

strong expanding the labor market companies

still need to provide attractive workplaces for

their employees Easily accessible central offi ce

locations will gain even more importance Un-

der these pressures the offi ce market should

start to more clearly separate the wheat from

the chaff Downtown locations where offi ce

space is scarce should perform well while

non-integrated offi ce properties will struggle

to attract tenants Rents for these peripheral

locations will be squeezed since they are main-

ly used for extremely cost-sensitive back-offi ce

functions Through renovation or new con-

structions in contrast downtown locations

should see further appreciation and attractive

returns For this reason we think rents for

high-end offi ce space should rise further

Positive appreciation rate

Despite falling interest rates and government

bond yields initial yields in the institutional

offi ce segment have hardly budged according

to IPD They were 58 percent in 2008 and

2009 In contrast to many European real estate

markets the appreciation rate is still positively

Commercial real estate and special uses

5

34

0ndash1

12

ndash3ndash2

2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

No drop in employment in Switzerland

Source Experian Business Services June 2010

Employment growth in financial and business services in percent

SwitzerlandEU15

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 21: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 2011 21

correlated with the rental growth rate in the

Swiss offi ce property market The percentage

increase in the granting of commercial mort-

gages has not exceeded the Swiss infl ation

rate either Both these factors mean the Swiss

commercial property market is on solid ground

The fall in government bond yields has height-

ened the relative appeal of commercial proper-

ties driving investment demand for this asset

class Nevertheless for 2011 we recommend

that offi ce real estate investors review carefully

the riskreturn profi le for each property and

refuse to compromise on their investment cri-

teria Most buyers are using their own funds at

present and can easily tap capital markets for

their debt fi nancing needs Unlike in previous

years few highly geared investors are active in

the Swiss property market

The Swiss National Bank has refrained from

interest rate hikes even though the Swiss

economy emerged hale and hearty from the

global crisis and is helping to drive European

economic growth Rising interest rates would

not however automatically trigger property

devaluation in the commercial institutional

real estate market Interest rates also refl ect

prevailing economic growth Fast growth

tends to raise rent revenues and thus prop-

erty valuations While this is not necessarily

an automatic reaction investors with proper-

ties in sustainable locations should not worry

if interest rates rise from the current historic

lows

Stable performance expected

Overall we expect the Swiss offi ce property

market to deliver steady performance in 2011

driven by stable returns while property values

should appreciate only modestly Appreciation

rates are based on expected rental growth due

to an improving economic environment and

not on speculative changes in appreciation

returns As such the Swiss offi ce property

market refl ects the countryrsquos sound economic

fundamentals

Commercial real estate and special uses

8

4

6

0

2

ndash22008 2009 2010 20112003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forecast

Slight potential for appreciation expected

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is no indication for future performance

Performance of Swiss office market pa

Net cash flow yieldAppreciation return

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

ltlt ASCII85EncodePages false AllowTransparency false AutoPositionEPSFiles true AutoRotatePages All Binding Left CalGrayProfile (Dot Gain 20) CalRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-21) CalCMYKProfile (PSO Uncoated ISO12647 050ECI051) sRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-21) CannotEmbedFontPolicy Warning CompatibilityLevel 13 CompressObjects Off CompressPages true ConvertImagesToIndexed true PassThroughJPEGImages false CreateJobTicket false DefaultRenderingIntent Default DetectBlends true DetectCurves 01000 ColorConversionStrategy CMYK DoThumbnails false EmbedAllFonts true EmbedOpenType false ParseICCProfilesInComments true EmbedJobOptions true DSCReportingLevel 0 EmitDSCWarnings false EndPage -1 ImageMemory 524288 LockDistillerParams false MaxSubsetPct 100 Optimize true OPM 1 ParseDSCComments true ParseDSCCommentsForDocInfo true PreserveCopyPage true PreserveDICMYKValues true PreserveEPSInfo false PreserveFlatness false PreserveHalftoneInfo false PreserveOPIComments false PreserveOverprintSettings true 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UseObjectSettings Namespace [ (Adobe) (CreativeSuite) (20) ] PDFXOutputIntentProfileSelector DocumentCMYK PageMarksFile RomanDefault PreserveEditing true UntaggedCMYKHandling UseDocumentProfile UntaggedRGBHandling UseDocumentProfile UseDocumentBleed false gtgt ]gtgt setdistillerparamsltlt HWResolution [144 144] PageSize [612000 792000]gtgt setpagedevice

Page 22: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 201122

Consumer confi dence is stronger in Swit-

zerland than in many other countries This

benefi ts retailers and real estate investors

alike but investment performance in-

creasingly hinges on property quality

While its consumers did not escape the global

economic crisis entirely unscathed the Swiss

retail sector seems relatively unfazed Infl a-

tion-adjusted retail revenues still rose by

around 05 percent in 2009 despite the cycli-

cal weakness compared with up to 43 per-

cent in the boom years Rising unemployment

fanned uncertainty in 2009 but unemploy-

ment started falling again in February 2010

and consumers regained confi dence This

should support retail revenue The retail sec-

tor is expected to see real revenue growth in

excess of 2 percent for 2010 and in the cur-

rent year

Concentration continues

Switzerlandrsquos robust purchasing power and

strong economic environment relative to its

European neighbors has encouraged many

foreign retailers to set up business here In the

fi rst stage of expansion they are focusing on

downtown shopping districts and prime shop-

ping centers This means lower-quality loca-

tions and shopping centers will have an uphill

battle Restoring competitiveness o en re-

quires costly extensive work The Swiss retail

property sector signifi cantly outperformed the

overall Swiss real estate market in 2009 log-

ging an overall rise of 63 percent Mean-

while rents increased by more than 3 percent

in 2009 and 2010 according to Wuumlest amp Part-

ner This is largely due to changing quality

diff erences between property categories

Performance diff erentiation

Property quality and location will become ever

more important to retailersrsquo siting decisions

and the success of retail property invest-

ments That is why we expect to see even

greater discrepancies in retail property per-

formance Construction has been proceeding

at a rapid pace in some regions recently and

older outdated shopping centers have been

renovated This has fueled competition for

tenants leaving little leeway for rent increases

in the retail market in 2011 The overall mar-

ket should thus see zero growth Only high-

end locations and well-managed properties

should rise above the fl at rental trend We

also expect property appreciation rates to

settle at between 1 and 2 percent in the

years ahead

Retail space ndash zero growth expected

Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

Overview of commercial properties

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Employment revenue and sentiment 20111 20102 2009 2008 10 yrs3

Employment offi ce in FTE 05 03 17 42 20

Employment retail in FTE 05 12 ndash09 18 03

Real retail revenue working day-adjusted 25 28 05 33 19

Consumer sentiment index average ndash ndash58 ndash333 ndash70 ndash88

Offi ce space

Asking rents for offi ce space 00 07 40 08 12

Vacancy rate for offi ce space 48 45 43 43 ndash

Net cash fl ow yield 49 49 49 48 484

Appreciation return 08 08 04 10 104

Performance on offi ce direct investment 57 57 53 59 584

Retail space

Asking rents for retail space 05 36 34 06 14

Net cash fl ow yield 49 48 48 50 494

Appreciation return 04 05 15 14 224

Performance on retail direct investment 53 53 63 65 714

1 Forecast UBS WMR Sources Wuumlest amp Partner Colliers IPD BFS Seco UBS WMR2 Forecast or extrapolations from UBS WMR (as of January 3 2011) 3 Average 2001 to 20104 Average 2006 to 2010

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 23: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 2011 23

Public-private partnership ndash more than a buzzword

Governments and companies have a long

history of collaboration However public-

private partners have to do more than just

work together They also need to defi ne

processes to structure their relationship

allocate risk award contracts and lay

down ground rules for the partnership

Operating maintaining and repairing a build-

ing over a 25- to 30-year period costs about as

much as constructing it in the fi rst place (ex-

cluding fi nance costs) Even a er accounting

for the time value of money only two thirds of

the total budget go toward the initial construc-

tion with one third consumed by operating

costs over 25 to 30 years Planning for any

construction project should thus consider the

subsequent operational phase This is one of

the strengths of public-private partnerships

(PPPs)

Originally conceived abroad by governments

seeking a way out of fi nancial predicaments

today one of the PPP modelrsquos major virtues is

the fact that bidders already have to consider

the operational phase when they make their

bids PPP does not do half-measures either

Besides addressing operating costs directly the

bidders are also free to design a building and

or infrastructure that minimizes operating

costs PPP thus integrates the buildingrsquos future

operator in the bidding consortium from the

start thereby improving long-term planning

design and construction

The tendering procedure is the key

The core of every PPP project is a contract be-

tween a public-sector entity and a project com-

pany with a clearly defi ned scope of services

The long contract terms (generally 20 to 30

years) show that PPPs cover the propertyrsquos en-

tire lifecycle not just construction and fi nance

Successful PPP projects utilize well-designed

tendering procedures that integrate planning

design construction fi nance and operation

into the bids and encourage competition for

each stage of the project

Some government clients hold architecture

competitions and then solicit bids from com-

panies to build and operate the property This

is not true PPP The problem Since the archi-

tecture has already been determined the

private service provider has little leeway to

optimize construction andor operation in its

proposal And so while planning and opera-

tion may be more effi cient these gains are

swallowed up by the companyrsquos higher fi nanc-

ing costs compared to its government client

The typical PPP tendering procedure can de-

liver signifi cant savings ndash for both the project

company and the public-sector client Numer-

ous analyses of PPP projects in neighboring

countries have documented effi ciency gains of

15 to 20 percent not to mention shorter build-

ing periods in many cases In Switzerland the

effi ciency gains for above-ground projects

should range from 5 to 10 percent

Higher fi nancing costs

a hollow counterargument

Critics of prefi nancing and outsourcing ser-

vices to private providers o en argue that

companies have higher fi nancing costs than

governments Unfortunately they ignore the

fundamental diff erences between the public

sectorrsquos risks in a PPP project as versus projects

where the building is constructed by govern-

Typical structure of a PPP project

Source UBS Real Estate Advisory

Contract

Construction Operationmaintenance

User fee

Public sectorClient

(ordering party)

Project companies(contractorsconcession holders)

User

Typical shareholdersndash Investors (funds etc)ndash Generaltotal contractors (GCTC)ndash Operators

Supervisory authority

Investorsbanks

PermitProject

financing

Generaltotal contractor(designbuild)

Operator(public private)

Project company as the contractor

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Niklaus Scheerer

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 24: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 201124

ment entities In a PPP project the private

contractor assumes construction and opera-

tion risks while government construction

places some or all of these risks on the public

sectorrsquos shoulders

Low public-sector fi nancing costs ultimately

stem from taxpayersrsquo implicit guarantee Re-

course to debt guarantees from taxpayers is

hard to justify though especially when the

risks and services could easily be offl oaded to

the private sector Risk allocation becomes dis-

torted by a kind of circular logic The taxpayers

are essentially guaranteeing their own debts as

the indirect project initiators Since this struc-

ture ignores the eff ective project risk in all fi -

nancing deliberations capital allocation is fre-

quently suboptimal

PPP projects by contrast clearly identify and

quantify all visible project risks and allocate

them to whomever can best judge and bear

them The private sector provides the project

fi nance although the government client is still

able or required to furnish greater or lesser

guarantees If guarantees are furnished how-

ever they are tied to a risk event so that the

client can manage the risks properly

Many potential areas of application

PPP projects are ideal for building transporta-

tion infrastructure They have also proven

their value over the last ten years in health-

care education criminal justice and national

defense particularly outside of Switzerland

Within Switzerland PPP models will probably

play the largest role in hospital fi nancing in

the near future Indeed the hospital fi nancing

reform slated for early 2012 (see ldquoHospital

property market in upheavalrdquo on page 25)

was motivated by a desire to create a level

playing fi eld for public- and private-sector

operators of acute care hospitals Having gov-

ernments build and operate hospitals would

not have been conducive to achieving this

goal This does not mean however that the

public sector has pulled out of the hospital

sector Instead it should assume a new role

as envisioned by the PPP paradigm Public and

private partners have unlimited scope for cre-

ativity in determining how they will share the

work It is important though for work alloca-

tion arrangements to be clearly structured

and consistently implemented by both part-

ners from the beginning PPP is not a game of

ldquohot potatordquo between the public and private

sectors

Intelligent risk allocation with PPP

PPP models are a viable form of fi nancing projects in Switzerland as

illustrated by the canton of Bernersquos new Neumatt Administrative

Center in Burgdorf The government is receiving a new piece of infra-

structure that it probably could not have built and fi nanced itself ndash

and the project is on schedule and on budget Debt-to-equity ratios

vary in PPP projects depending on the area of application and risk

structure Ten to 20 percent of project costs is the standard equity

ratio for above-ground projects where the private partner bears little

to no market risk This low ratio ndash which is only possible thanks to

the clear risk allocation of PPP projects ndash can deliver an attractive

return on equity and also optimizes overall fi nancing costs And that

protects government coff ers Large real estate investors would do

well to familiarize themselves with PPP since Switzerland is expected

to see many PPP projects in the future It makes sense to learn as

much as possible early on

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 25: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 2011 25

Hospital real estate in upheaval

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system is complex

Its structure buildings and fi nancing are

on the cusp of a radical transformation

This change opens up attractive opportu-

nities for investors

The Swiss hospital real estate market is in up-

heaval Not only do the properties (largely

built in the 1970s and 1980s) need signifi cant

renovations but the hospital structure in many

cantons is outdated and balkanized Plus the

widespread shi from inpatient to outpatient

treatment is creating new demands on space

that the current hospital infrastructure is un-

able to meet adequately or cost-eff ectively

New hospital fi nancing as of

January 1 2012

The biggest change facing hospitals is probably

the 2007 amendment to the Federal Health

Insurance Act (Krankenversicherungsgesetz

KVG) which will roll out an overhaul of hospi-

tal fi nancing on January 1 2012 The purpose

is to improve effi ciency and transparency The

reform applies a system of ldquodiagnosis-related

groupsrdquo (DRGs) for the treatment of patients

Patients are assigned to DRGs based on criteria

such as the main diagnosis additional diag-

noses treatment and severity The DRG assign-

ment determines the fl at fee paid to the hospi-

tal for treating the patient This contrasts with

the existing system where hospitals receive

payment retrospectively with defi cit guaran-

tees or global budgets DRG rates are set using

the least expensive hospitals as a baseline and

are regularly updated They are defi ned on a

national level by SwissDRG AG an organiza-

tion set up specifi cally for this purpose Part of

the DRG fee goes toward capital expenses that

used to be fi nanced by the cantons Special

provisions have been instituted during the tran-

sition from the old to the new system of hospi-

tal fi nancing The new system however does

not cover outpatient services which continue

to be paid using the Tarmed tariff system

Unpredictable regulator

If the new system takes the form envisioned by

the legislature hospitals will fail if they cannot

provide services at or below the DRG rates

Only time will tell if policymakers will stand by

and watch this happen as the cantons are re-

quired to ensure an adequate supply of inpa-

tient hospital services Thus the market will

probably not be given a free hand to reform

Switzerlandrsquos hospital system quite as radically

as envisaged in the amended KVG

Cantons will have to decide whether to prop

up hospitals as long as they continue to wear

several confl icting hats Not only do they stipu-

late what services hospitals have to provide as

part of the hospital planning process (this

ldquoservice mandaterdquo is necessary for hospitals to

appear on the Hospital List) but they also di-

rectly or indirectly own and operate many hos-

pitals themselves

Financial assessment

Under the new system fi nancing risk is as-

sessed based on the hospital operatorrsquos cred-

itworthiness not the cantonrsquos That means

hospital fi nancing will increasingly use the

standard assessment criteria for corporate

fi nance The reason The competition-distort-

ing eff ects of public guarantees would run

counter to the new systemrsquos goals As a re-

sult investors will have to carefully review

each hospitalrsquos prospects and viability before

providing equity or debt capital

Hospitals with a strong costquality profi le

and attractive catchment areas ought to be

able to easily raise capital for future operations

despite the various hurdles such as ensuring

adequate capitalization Poorly positioned

Structure and income sources of hospitals as of 2012

Source UBS Corporate Finance Switzerland Project amp Product Development

Illustrated by an example

Func

tion

s

inte

rfac

esSe

rvic

es

floor

spa

ce

Sour

ces

of fu

ndin

g

Investor

Doctors Providers of radiology etc Hospital operator

Canton

Real Estate Ltd(hospital owner)

Hospital Ltd or other legal structure

Hospital

SwissDRGCantonsInsurance

Private households

Ground subleaseService mandate ground lease

Management contract

Lease

Outpatient treatment

Inpatient treatmentCommon areas

Subleases

TARMED

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Markus Wagemann

Wealth Management amp

Swiss Bank UBS AG

Christian Unternaumlhrer

Niklaus Scheerer

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 26: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 201126

ineffi cient hospitals by contrast will run into

diffi culties The cantons have promised to lend

funds at market rates if private investors do not

provide enough backing This inherent contra-

diction of the future fi nancing system should

be addressed however to prevent the emer-

gence of other structures that distort competi-

tion It is legitimate to assume a er all that all

viable hospitals should be able to fi nd private

investors if they pay market interest rates that

refl ect the risk exposure This government in-

tervention in the Swiss hospital system will

make it diffi cult for investors and lenders to

evaluate a particular hospitalrsquos competitive po-

sition and market appeal As a result all pri-

vately fi nanced hospitals will probably have to

pay a non-transparency premium

Attractive opportunities for real estate

investors

Despite or perhaps because of the complexity

of the Swiss hospital system we believe this

market off ers attractive opportunities for real

estate investors If a hospital can tailor its infra-

structure to the medical processes and diff er-

ent space requirements of in- and outpatient

treatment it can become a cost leader and

achieve superior profi t margins Not to men-

tion other favorable factors such as the health-

care sectorrsquos overall growth momentum and

the high entry barriers for new providers due

largely to heavy regulation Investors however

should familiarize themselves with the com-

plexities of the Swiss hospital system and ac-

cept fi nancial models other than the typical

renting model In this special segment of the

real estate market other characteristics of suc-

cessful investors include openness and creativ-

ity in providing services that go beyond merely

providing rooms Investors who put in the

work will be rewarded with the prospect of

attractive cash fl ow yields

Some key aspects of due diligence

The underlying structure of the Swiss hospital system began to

change years ago While the number of general hospitals has

dropped sharply the number of specialty hospitals has stayed steady

Both segments however now treat far more cases with signifi cantly

fewer beds These concentration and specialization trends should be

considered when investing in hospital real estate Also the govern-

mentrsquos role its room to maneuver and its future obligations should

be clearly identifi ed Of course the Hospital Lists and service man-

dates of the cantons are the main criteria for assessing a hospitalrsquos

market position Special attention should be paid to how cantons

handle real estate properties Furthermore investors should expect

hospitals to focus more on outpatient treatment as they avoid the

cost trap created by diff erences in how Tarmed and SwissDRG rates

pay hospitals for capital expenditures Nor should hospitals fall below

the critical 100-bed threshold since that would prevent them from

providing their services effi ciently

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 27: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 2011 27

Global real estate investments ndash diversifi cation opportunities abound

The global real estate market is frag-

mented along national and regional lines

o en making entrance into specifi c mar-

kets diffi cult Direct and indirect real

estate investment products can overcome

these barriers and they off er attractive

diversifi cation opportunities in a global

economy

According to DTZ Research commercial real

estate accounted for 10 trillion US dollars in

global investment volume at the end of 2009

Of this very large pie 39 percent was in North

America 32 in Europe and 29 in AsiaPacifi c

Besides their relative size these regional mar-

kets diff er in other ways too Each off ers its

own unique blend of liquidity investable sec-

tors and expected risks and returns While resi-

dential real estate is the king of the Swiss Ger-

man and US markets commercial properties

play a key role in most European countries with

high home ownership rates Landlord-tenant

laws and leases also vary considerably from

country to country Leases tend to be shorter

in Continental Europe than in the UK British

and Irish leases also contain ldquoupward-only

lease reviewrdquo clauses which allow rent hikes

to be imposed in periods of economic

strength but prohibit reductions when times

are tough In Continental Europe by contrast

rents are o en indexed typically to consumer

price indexes While this prevents landlords

from maximizing rent revenue in strong mar-

kets it also protects them against infl ation

over the lease term

Constructing a global real estate portfolio

Diversifying a real estate portfolio interna-

tionally not only can reduce portfolio risk but

also boost returns Diversifi cation in general

reduces risk If investors also wish to increase

returns they can incorporate other sectors

and stages of investment into their global

real estate strategy In short there are many

ways to exploit the diversifi cation potential of

international real estate investments The

graphic compares 82 countrysector combina-

tions of real estate investments (for example

French offi ce buildings and German residen-

tial real estate) along with maximum and

minimum total returns between 1995 and

today The crisis year of 2008 saw the largest

gap between the best and worst performers

60 percent In this asset class unfortunately

investors cannot move quickly and easily be-

tween countries and sectors That makes it

especially important for them to be prudent

and farsighted with their tactical and strate-

gic asset allocations

There are two basic approaches to construct-

ing an international real estate portfolio First

direct investments can be made in properties

on the private market or in unlisted funds or

funds of funds Second indirect investments

can be made in real estate funds or real estate

corporations that are listed on an exchange

Direct real estate investments

The direct segment has witnessed a dramatic

increase in open-ended unlisted real estate

funds that regularly issue and redeem shares

This has led investors to overestimate this vehi-

clersquos liquidity It should not be overlooked that

since unlisted funds own real properties they

are as illiquid as their holdings On the positive

side for investors fund units are denominated

and traded in much smaller amounts than ac-

tual properties and so are much easier to buy

and sell The investment vehicle can only boost

liquidity by holding cash or other liquid instru-

ments which may dilute the performance of

its real estate portfolio

45

0

ndash15

15

30

ndash45

ndash30

2001 2003 2005 2007 20091995 1997 1999

Global range of performance opens up diversification opportunities

Sources IPD UBS GREPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Global range of returns by countrysector in percent

Global minimumGlobal maximum

Swiss average

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Gunnar Herm

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 28: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 201128

Indirect investments

Many investors implement their global real es-

tate strategy with listed funds or companies

because they seem more liquid than direct in-

vestments This is a tempting way to circumvent

real estatersquos fundamental liquidity problem but

it does exact a cost namely greater volatility If

the real estate strategy allocates a large share

of assets to listed real estate investments the

portfoliorsquos performance may suddenly plummet

as market prices fall Even though the market

for listed real estate investments is about as

effi cient as global equity markets it remains

diffi cult if not impossible to predict and hedge

against market corrections

History shows that listed real estate companies

deliver a long-term return comparable to direct

real estate investments a er adjusting for the

cost of debt fi nancing and the eff ect of setting

prices through an exchange Unlisted funds gen-

erally fall within these two extremes in terms of

risk and return

Trends and outlook

Valuations in most global property markets fell

precipitously during the fi nancial crisis The

lower valuations however signifi cantly wid-

ened the gap between real estate returns and

low-yielding government bonds These gaps

even reached historical highs in some cases

which beginning in the second half of 2009

heartened investors to move back into real

estate stabilizing property valuations While

acknowledging the fragile economic environ-

ment in most Western property markets we

are cautiously optimistic about the future In

2011 global investment strategies should focus

on maintaining current returns We do not ex-

pect valuations to rise as sharply as they did

before the global fi nancial crisis While a minor

correction in the UK is not unlikely in 2011 we

see opportunities in the US and most Eurozone

countries The focus in most Asian markets is

on value-added and opportunistic investment

strategies The macrotrend in emerging coun-

tries remains intact but only sophisticated in-

vestors with strong risk appetites should seek

exposure to these regions in our view

Continental Europe appeals

Investors should choose real estate investments carefully because the

investmentrsquos structure can signifi cantly impact liquidity and short-

term performance Diversifi cation can be achieved by capitalizing on

the growing ldquode-synchronizationrdquo among global real estate markets

In other words diff erent countries are in diff erent stages of the per-

formance cycle We thus expect commercial real estate markets to

grow at diff erent rates from region to region The US and Continen-

tal European markets currently off er attractive riskreturn profi les

Asian markets are growing rapidly but investors there must be will-

ing to take on more risk Finally investors who concentrate their real

estate portfolios in Switzerland are shutting themselves off from

nearly 99 percent of the global investment volume in real estate His-

tory teaches us that diversifying across various Swiss regions is not a

very promising strategy The reason Cash fl ows from these regions

are subject to the same macroeconomic parameters such as income

infl ation and interest rates

In focus Commercial real estate and special uses

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 29: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Indirect Swiss real estate investments are among the winners of recent years

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 30: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 201130

Real estate equities ndash on solid ground

Real estate equities performed well in

2010 ndash partly due to their own merits and

partly due to a favorable economic envi-

ronment The coming year looks to be

much tougher though

Swiss real estate stocks thrived in the favorable

environment of 2010 no overheated markets

a rapid economic recovery robust demand and

falling interest rates Companies also invested

further in their properties which buoyed per-

formance Several made up for the corrections

from late 2008 and early 2009 and even

reached all-time highs Among them were Swit-

zerlandrsquos two leading property stocks Swiss

Prime Site (SPS) and PSP Swiss Property

Moderate potential for NAV appreciation

A er strong relative and absolute performance

in 2010 the remaining upside is moderate due

to fair valuations and limited potential for appre-

ciation of net asset value Long-term investors

can still hold these shares for their attractive

dividend yields which we expect to remain high

for some time to come The leading real estate

companies are paying dividends as a return of

share capital that incurs no withholding tax Our

overall assessment for Swiss real estate equities

is slightly more cautious Investors should capi-

talize on price dips by adding to their positions

Real estate is a late-cyclical sector That means

real estate prices should fall somewhat over the

next two years However long residual lease

terms should so en and contain the fallout for

leading real estate fi rms like SPS and PSP The

average term is four to fi ve years for PSP and an

impressive 11 years for Jelmoli which SPS ac-

quired in 2009 The largest fi rmsrsquo vacancy rates

of 35 to 8 percent should rise slightly in the

upcoming two years

Allreal and Flughafen Zuumlrich occupy special

niches among Switzerlandrsquos large real estate

companies Allreal generates around one quar-

ter of its earnings by designing and building

properties We expect it to see more moderate

demand given the decline in real estate prices

and long-term rise in interest rates However

Allreal has a large order backlog of 17 billion

Swiss francs or roughly three-and-a-half times

the divisionrsquos annual revenue

Attractive niches

Flughafen Zuumlrich operates a capital-intensive

airport infrastructure with robust cash fl ow

Even with the recession passenger volumes at

Zurich Airport only dropped 1 percent in 2009

We expect passenger volumes to grow 5 per-

cent in 2010 and 3 to 4 percent in 2011 In the

short term recovering global demand for air

travel will drive growth In the medium term it

will be fueled by increased retail space at Zu-

rich Airport The airport has also launched

ldquoThe Circlerdquo a one billion franc property de-

velopment project with attractive long-term

growth prospects located next to the airport

With its healthy profi t outlook Flughafen

Zuumlrich is one of the more attractive real estate

shares in Switzerland

Listed real estate and investment foundations

400

300350

150100

200250

050

2008 2009 20102001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Spectacular performance likely to settle downGains including dividends over the last 10 years (2001 = 100)

SPSPSP

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Sources Reuters UBS WMRPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 31: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 2011 31

Listed real estate and investment foundations

170

120110

140130

150160

90100

32

2428

128

1620

04

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Positive trend in various markets

Sources UBS GAM SXI Real Estate Funds Index Thomson Reuters Real estate funds closing accountsPast performance is not an indication of future returns

Performance of listed Swiss real estate funds (2003 = 100)

SXI Real Estate Funds Index (performance indexed)Net asset value of market (indexed)

Premium to net asset value in percent (right-hand scale)

Exchange-traded real estate funds appeal

to investors because they combine fea-

tures of stocks bonds and real estate

This mix is refl ected in the riskreturn pro-

fi les of funds making them an attractive

choice for mixed portfolios

Real estate funds have a long history ndash over

50 years in some cases O en considered bor-

ing and opaque they have recently experienced

a boom Investors have included exchange-trad-

ed Swiss real estate funds in their portfolios for

a variety of reasons Generally they off er stable

and interesting returns attractive dividends in-

vestor protection regional and sectoral diversifi -

cation an attractive riskreturn profi le and in

some cases good protection against infl ation

Together these traits enable real estate funds to

trade at a premium (the diff erence between the

trading price and net asset value) in almost any

market

Investor protection is vital

Real estate funds are specifi cally structured to

protect investors First funds can only change

the number of units outstanding under special

circumstances such as secondary off erings Real

estate funds are regulated by the Swiss Collec-

tive Investment Schemes Act and the Swiss Fi-

nancial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA)

The funds are legally prohibited from borrowing

more than 50 percent of their portfoliorsquos market

value Also investors can redeem units at the net

asset value less fees by giving a yearrsquos notice

prior to close of the fi nancial year

The start of this century ushered in several struc-

tural shi s for the market First issuers consoli-

dated many of their products the market had

been crowded with too many real estate funds

with similar objectives Reporting was also made

more transparent to appeal to investors Finally

the 2003 fall in interest rates drove up demand

for exchange-traded real estate funds Short-

term interest rates were (and still are) very low

and long-term rates fell a short time later As

bond yields plummeted the spread widened on

dividend yields for real estate funds and the

funds began to look more attractive

Demographic developments also boosted de-

mand for the residential property held by most

of the real estate funds German immigrants

fl ocked to German-speaking Switzerland driving

up housing demand and prices British workers

and other foreign nationals immigrated to the

French-speaking regions and had a similar im-

pact on the local real estate market

Recognized as a conservative asset class

The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and the historically

low interest rates have heavily aff ected perfor-

mance The collapse of Lehman Brothers was felt

by every exchange-traded security ndash including

real estate funds While the long-term premium

averages around 15 percent some real estate

funds actually traded at a discount during this

period Investors however quickly realized that

real estate funds are conservative investments

with enticing distribution yields of over 3 per-

cent Now more investors are interested in ac-

tively and passively managed real estate funds

especially since early 2009

The SXI Real Estate Funds Index which contains

all exchange-traded Swiss real estate funds

gained 196 percent in 2009 That was an im-

pressive showing for such a conservative asset

class Strong infl ows of new money from direct

investors and new products in this market

fueled a year-end rally Trading volumes soared

to new highs Liquidity o en became tight due

to the limited number of units and premiums

rose Recognizing the high demand fund man-

agers raised more equity through secondary

and rights off erings The additional capital was

largely invested in order to minimize dilution

Real estate funds ndash an attractive addition to portfolios

Dalibor Maksimovic

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 32: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 201132

Attractive debt fi nancing

Low interest rates have made debt fi nancing

very attractive forcing many real estate funds to

rebalance their debt-to-equity ratios Since the

fundsrsquo net returns are 2 percent higher than cur-

rent interest rates some leverage would be ben-

efi cial and would not change their defensive

nature in our view Real estate funds are now

15 to 20 percent leveraged ndash far below the legal

maximum of 50 percent

Another trend is IPOs In this positive environ-

ment it is not surprising that many sponsors are

seeking to list existing funds and launching new

funds that they hope to list in future Twenty-

one real estate funds trade on exchanges and

represent an aggregate market capitalization of

around 22 billion Swiss francs IPOs rights off er-

ings and secondary off erings have expanded this

segment by roughly 7 billion Swiss francs since

2003 And the future promises to see even more

off erings The Swiss National Bankrsquos decision in

December 2010 to confi rm low interest rates will

continue to generate interest in this asset class

The environment is currently very favorable for

real estate funds a rise in interest rates accord-

ingly should bring down the prices of real estate

funds at least in the short term Given the low

returns on comparable investments we think

demand for real estate funds among private and

institutional investors should remain intact Inter-

est in this asset class even seems to be increasing

slightly This is confi rmed by the IPOs rights is-

sues and secondary off erings in 2010 (of around

18 billion Swiss francs) which is much more the

2008 and 2009 totals of around 1 billion Swiss

francs

Listed real estate and investment foundations

Overview of listed real estate

Unless otherwise indicated all fi gures refer to percentage growth over the previous year

Real estate equities 20101 2009 2008 2007 5 yrs2

Performance 251 169 ndash112 ndash109 73

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 05 04 05 05 04

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 196 148 162 135 123

Estimated premiums 50 ndash 64 57 192 804

Real estate funds

Performance 56 196 05 ndash34 52

Correlation with Swiss Performance Index3 01 01 02 01 01

Average daily trading volumes (CHF m) 182 158 120 103 112

Estimated premiums 201 108 54 145 1344

Benchmark

Performance of Swiss Performance Index 51 232 ndash340 ndash01 91

Performance of Swiss Bond Index (AAA) 38 42 88 ndash06 311 Year-to-date (as of December 23 2010) Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR2 Average 2005 to 2009 3 Value between ndash1 (total diversifi cation eff ect) and 1 (no diversifi cation eff ect)

4 Premiums to net asset values of real estate equities and real estate funds

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 33: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 2011 33

The rise of Swiss real estate equities

This young segment of the Swiss equity

market has seen plenty of IPOs acquisi-

tions rights issues and secondary off er-

ings Despite their short histories and

rapid changes Switzerlandrsquos leading real

estate equities are good choices for de-

fensive long-term investors

The SIX Swiss Exchange listed a new real estate

company in November 2010 Formed in 1999

and controlled by the Wolfensberger family

Peach Property Group has specialized in devel-

oping luxury European housing since 2006 and

has traded under its current name since 2008

It follows Orascom Development as the only

other publicly traded Swiss real estate company

to focus on designing and building properties

in Switzerland and abroad

Allreal also made headlines this year with a

rights off ering in May that increased its share

capital by 20 percent The funds will be invest-

ed in real estate projects This continues All-

realrsquos corporate strategy of raising equity every

two to three years in order to fi nance its strong

organic growth

Intershop ndash the industry veteran

Turning now to the beginnings of the publicly

traded Swiss real estate industry The oldest

listed fi rm Intershop Holding was established

in 1962 and has traded on the SIX Swiss Ex-

change since 1972 It mainly developed com-

mercial properties in France Germany and

Switzerland during its fi rst 35 years Since

1997 Intershop has focused exclusively on the

domestic real estate market

But real estate companies have only been

traded as an industry segment for a little over

10 years Spring 2000 saw a veritable IPO big

bang Four new pure-play real estate compa-

nies joined the SIX Swiss Exchange ticker in

only two months First Oerlikon-Buumlhrle took

its real estate subsidiary Allreal Holding public

in March 2000 Later that month Zurich In-

surance listed its real estate spin-off renamed

PSP Swiss Property (PSP) on the SIX Swiss

Exchange Next Feldschloumlsschen-Huumlrlimann

Holding became a publicly traded pure-play

real estate fi rm following the sale of its bever-

ages business in April 2000 Rebranded as

REG Real Estate Group the company was

acquired by PSP in May 2004 Swiss Prime Site

(SPS) also held an IPO in April 2000 SPS was

originally formed in 1999 by Winterthur Life

the Credit Suisse pension fund and the Sie-

mens pension fund for Switzerland

Flughafen Zuumlrich AG was established in 1948

as ldquoFlughafen Immobiliengesellscha rdquo and

was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April

2000 just like REG and SPS Though mainly

known for operating Zurich Airport Flughafen

Zuumlrich AG is also a successful landlord In fact

90 percent of its operating income comes

from non-aviation operations It is thus clearly

a real estate company and an attractive addi-

tion to the Swiss property segment

Europersquos top 18 includes two Swiss fi rms

Subsequent IPOs and acquisitions swelled the

aggregate market capitalization of Swiss real

estate companies until it attracted international

attention First PSP then SPS were added to

the real estate sector of the Dow Jones Stoxx

Europe 600 The index currently contains

18 European real estate shares two of which

are Swiss

Despite the recent spate of IPOs rights issues

and secondary off erings we still see plenty of

upside for this industry Publicly traded real

estate companies only hold 1 percent of the

estimated total value of Switzerlandrsquos real es-

tate Their footprint is larger in the commercial

sector but still remains in the single digits This

2500 3000 350020000 500 1000 1500

Real estate equity industry offers size and breadth

Sources Bloomberg UBS WMR

Market capitalization in CHF million

Swiss Prime SitePSP Swiss Property

Flughafen ZuumlrichAllreal

Orascom DevMobimo

IntershopWarteck Invest

Zuumlblin ImmobilienPeach Property

Pax-AnlageBFW Liegenschaen

Eastern PropertyUSI Group

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Stefan R Meyer

Wealth Management Research

UBS AG

The above does not constitute investment research a sales prospectus an off er or a solicitation of an off er for investment transactions

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 34: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 201134

leaves plenty of room for the Swiss real estate

industry to grow

More capital market activity expected

The Swiss real estate industry will likely engage

in more IPOs rights issues secondary off erings

and acquisitions IPOs improve the liquidity of

the Swiss real estate market Rights issues and

secondary off erings help companies to main-

tain their growth trajectories ndash organically and

through acquisitions Acquisitions fuel growth

spurts and generally unleash synergies in the

form of cost savings and economies of scale

Swiss commercial real estate is currently the

most important segment The biggest player in

this sector is SPS followed by PSP Some com-

mercial property companies also have signifi -

cant exposure to housing They include Allreal

followed by Mobimo and Warteck Invest

Onward and upward

The Swiss real estate industry hit another mile-

stone when foreign property fi rms entered the

market Eastern Property Holding which is still

incorporated in the British Virgin Islands was

listed on the Swiss Exchange in January 2005

It specializes in properties in Eastern Europe

and Russia in particular May 2008 saw the

listing of Orascom Development an Altdorf-

based urban developer and hotel investor

Though it generates much of its income in the

Middle East it has recently expanded to Eu-

rope and North Africa Orascomrsquos Swiss activi-

ties include the development of the Andermatt

Swiss Alps luxury project which has enjoyed

strong advance sales

The real estate industry has established a

strong foothold in the Swiss equity market and

achieved a market capitalization well in excess

of 10 billion francs Fourteen property fi rms

already trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange within

a wide variety of subsegments Real estate

companies have enjoyed a very successful rise

on the Swiss Exchange which will no doubt

continue onward and upward

Big names attractive as core investments

Switzerlandrsquos main real estate companies tend to stay within the do-

mestic market which they know well and which still off ers suffi cient

upside Their management teams appear to be solid and seasoned

Rent revenues are stable especially compared to the rest of the

world and tend to be largely distributed to shareholders as divi-

dends Their sustained dividends and generally conservative business

strategies make them attractive core investments for private and in-

stitutional investors The international real estate fi rms are more ag-

gressive equities with profi ts and dividends that tend to fl uctuate

more over the cycle This segment is less ideal as a stable core invest-

ment but still harbors superior upside in a bull market All in all the

SIX Swiss Exchange off ers a broad variety of real estate shares for

many diff erent investor interests

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 35: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 2011 35

Trend watch ndash exchange-traded real estate funds

Swiss real estate funds are the current dar-

lings of private and institutional investors

Strong demand has given rise to new prod-

ucts and improved transparency More

IPOs rights issues and secondary off erings

should keep market momentum strong

Real estate funds are attractive investments

particularly in changing uncertain economic

environments Since they are governed by the

Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act the

funds off er stability healthy dividends robust

investor protection and liquidity through con-

tinuous trading on the exchange Demand

among investors is so strong in fact that es-

tablished players have started launching new

products while nimble young providers are

rolling out entirely new funds And the uni-

verse of products will only continue to get larg-

er and more diverse To keep up investors

need to know the main trends in exchange-

traded real estate funds

Real estate funds can be evaluated at three

levels (1) the investor who buys fund units on

an exchange (2) the product and its various

structural variants and (3) the value of the

property portfolio which varies depending on

property quality and management Exchange-

traded real estate funds have made progress at

all three levels

Greater transparency and comparability

Real estate funds have recently become much

more transparent to investors Guidelines is-

sued by the Swiss Funds Association (SFA) for

example require each fund to regularly publish

key data to improve product comparability

Besides fi nancial indicators such as perfor-

mance distribution yield and premium (per-

centage diff erence between trading price and

net asset value) the data also includes product

and property indicators such as investment

return and rent default rate Direct product

comparisons can also use indexes that measure

market performance Two such indexes are

maintained by SIX Swiss Exchange One tracks

the 10 largest real estate funds while the oth-

er encompasses all exchange-traded real estate

funds Fund providers are making their report-

ing so transparent that it rivals that of publicly

traded stock corporations

New products and tax-effi cient structures

The product level has experienced two major

changes First many new real estate funds

have been launched in the past several years

Over 20 real estate funds now trade on SIX

Swiss Exchange with a total volume well in

excess of 20 billion francs The market has also

seen the infl ux of several small funds many of

which specialize in western Swiss property as

well as theme funds that diff erentiate them-

selves by focusing on sustainability or other

issues

Second ldquodirect investmentrdquo structures have

become more widespread since the Collective

Investment Schemes Act was enacted four

years ago Direct investment funds buy and

hold properties directly indirect funds hold

them through real estate companies Most

new funds adopt the direct investment struc-

ture because it off ers tax breaks for private

investors Since the fund pays taxes itself pri-

vate investors do not have to pay income and

wealth taxes on their fund holdings Leverage

is also important with Swiss real estate funds

being very modestly geared at around 20 per-

cent In todayrsquos low-interest environment fund

managers have to decide whether to borrow

funds or raise equity in a rights issue or sec-

ondary off ering As it turns out several funds

have held IPOs rights issues or secondary of-

ferings as the real estate fund market has

grown in recent years

3000

2500

1500

1000

2000

500

0

30

15

10

20

25

0

5

2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strong demand for listed real estate funds in 2010

Sources UBS GAM SIX Homepage

Listed real estate funds capital increases and new listings

Capital increases and new listings total in CHF mNumber of funds in SXI Real Estate Funds Index (right-hand scale)

Daniel Bruumlllmann

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

ltlt ASCII85EncodePages false AllowTransparency false AutoPositionEPSFiles true AutoRotatePages All Binding Left CalGrayProfile (Dot Gain 20) CalRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-21) CalCMYKProfile (PSO Uncoated ISO12647 050ECI051) sRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-21) CannotEmbedFontPolicy Warning CompatibilityLevel 13 CompressObjects Off CompressPages true ConvertImagesToIndexed true PassThroughJPEGImages false CreateJobTicket false DefaultRenderingIntent Default DetectBlends true DetectCurves 01000 ColorConversionStrategy CMYK DoThumbnails false EmbedAllFonts true EmbedOpenType false ParseICCProfilesInComments true EmbedJobOptions true DSCReportingLevel 0 EmitDSCWarnings false EndPage -1 ImageMemory 524288 LockDistillerParams false MaxSubsetPct 100 Optimize true OPM 1 ParseDSCComments true ParseDSCCommentsForDocInfo true PreserveCopyPage true PreserveDICMYKValues true PreserveEPSInfo false PreserveFlatness false PreserveHalftoneInfo false PreserveOPIComments false PreserveOverprintSettings true StartPage 1 SubsetFonts true TransferFunctionInfo Preserve UCRandBGInfo Remove UsePrologue false ColorSettingsFile () AlwaysEmbed [ true ] NeverEmbed [ true Courier Courier-Bold Courier-BoldOblique Courier-Oblique Helvetica Helvetica-Bold Helvetica-BoldOblique Helvetica-Oblique Symbol Times-Bold Times-BoldItalic Times-Italic Times-Roman ZapfDingbats ] AntiAliasColorImages false CropColorImages false ColorImageMinResolution 150 ColorImageMinResolutionPolicy OK DownsampleColorImages true ColorImageDownsampleType Average ColorImageResolution 100 ColorImageDepth -1 ColorImageMinDownsampleDepth 1 ColorImageDownsampleThreshold 150000 EncodeColorImages true ColorImageFilter DCTEncode AutoFilterColorImages false ColorImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG ColorACSImageDict ltlt QFactor 015 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1] gtgt ColorImageDict ltlt QFactor 040 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1] gtgt JPEG2000ColorACSImageDict ltlt TileWidth 256 TileHeight 256 Quality 30 gtgt JPEG2000ColorImageDict 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Page 36: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 201136

Strong demand for sustainable growth

New trends are shaping fundsrsquo real estate in-

vestments ndash and will aff ect their future per-

formance Sustainability is one such trend

More fund managers are investing in proper-

ties that not only meet environmental criteria

for sustainability (eg Minergie certifi cation)

but also economic and sociocultural ones Sus-

tainability also plays a role in property up-

grades Targeted refurbishments to apartment

complexes built between the 1960s and 1980s

can signifi cantly reduce energy consumption

Many real estate funds particularly older ones

can generate more growth from their portfo-

lios by refurbishing existing properties and ex-

ploiting latent potential through the construc-

tion of additions or replacement buildings on

existing land Funds can also become involved

in new construction and project developments

in order to expand their portfolios with new

properties To do this though fund managers

must have the expertise and ability to carry out

these complex projects

The real estate fund industryrsquos rapid growth in

recent years shows that many investors are

interested in these products This is probably

due to the solid product structures and strong

demand for Swiss real estate Given current

trends at all levels we have no doubt that the

real estate fund industry will remain a success

story in the future too

Compare products carefully

Premiums on real estate funds vary due to trading fl uctuations but

tend to hover around 15 percent over the long term Why such a

high premium First exchange-traded funds are more liquid than

direct property investments Next aggregate market values or net

asset values do not refl ect the diversifi cation eff ect within the fund

portfolio Finally real estate funds are valued at liquidation values

Net asset values refl ect he y liquidation taxes and so are much low-

er than the fundrsquos ongoing business value Remember Since real

estate fund prices also vary with supply and demand on the ex-

change investors should look at the product itself ndash not just the

price Important product-level features include gearing and tax opti-

mization while property-level characteristics include the rent default

rate and portfolio distribution by region and use It also helps to

compare the performance of individual products over several years

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

ltlt ASCII85EncodePages false AllowTransparency false AutoPositionEPSFiles true AutoRotatePages All Binding Left CalGrayProfile (Dot Gain 20) CalRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-21) CalCMYKProfile (PSO Uncoated ISO12647 050ECI051) sRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-21) CannotEmbedFontPolicy Warning CompatibilityLevel 13 CompressObjects Off CompressPages true ConvertImagesToIndexed true PassThroughJPEGImages false CreateJobTicket false DefaultRenderingIntent Default DetectBlends true DetectCurves 01000 ColorConversionStrategy CMYK DoThumbnails false EmbedAllFonts true EmbedOpenType false ParseICCProfilesInComments true EmbedJobOptions true DSCReportingLevel 0 EmitDSCWarnings false EndPage -1 ImageMemory 524288 LockDistillerParams false MaxSubsetPct 100 Optimize true OPM 1 ParseDSCComments true ParseDSCCommentsForDocInfo true PreserveCopyPage true PreserveDICMYKValues true PreserveEPSInfo false PreserveFlatness false PreserveHalftoneInfo false PreserveOPIComments false PreserveOverprintSettings true 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HonorRolloverEffect false IgnoreHTMLPageBreaks false IncludeHeaderFooter false MarginOffset [ 0 0 0 0 ] MetadataAuthor () MetadataKeywords () MetadataSubject () MetadataTitle () MetricPageSize [ 0 0 ] MetricUnit inch MobileCompatible 0 Namespace [ (Adobe) (GoLive) (80) ] OpenZoomToHTMLFontSize false PageOrientation Portrait RemoveBackground false ShrinkContent true TreatColorsAs MainMonitorColors UseEmbeddedProfiles false UseHTMLTitleAsMetadata true gtgt ltlt AddBleedMarks false AddColorBars false AddCropMarks false AddPageInfo false AddRegMarks false BleedOffset [ 0 0 0 0 ] ConvertColors ConvertToCMYK DestinationProfileName (PSO Uncoated ISO12647 (ECI)) DestinationProfileSelector UseName Downsample16BitImages true FlattenerPreset ltlt PresetSelector MediumResolution gtgt FormElements true GenerateStructure false IncludeBookmarks false IncludeHyperlinks false IncludeInteractive false IncludeLayers false IncludeProfiles false MarksOffset 6 MarksWeight 0250000 MultimediaHandling UseObjectSettings Namespace [ (Adobe) (CreativeSuite) (20) ] PDFXOutputIntentProfileSelector DocumentCMYK PageMarksFile RomanDefault PreserveEditing true UntaggedCMYKHandling UseDocumentProfile UntaggedRGBHandling UseDocumentProfile UseDocumentBleed false gtgt ]gtgt setdistillerparamsltlt HWResolution [144 144] PageSize [612000 792000]gtgt setpagedevice

Page 37: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 2011 37

Property investment groups of investment foundations ndash on the advance

Investment foundations hold real estate

investments with strong market positions

and impressive momentum They off er

attractive product features Pension

fundsrsquo property contributions make a sig-

nifi cant contribution to fueling growth

The purpose of investment foundations is to

collectively invest and manage assets How-

ever they are only open to tax-exempt occu-

pational pension institutions (Pillar 2 and 3a)

domiciled in Switzerland Around 40 invest-

ment foundations operate in Switzerland

26 belong to the Conference of Managers of

Investment Foundations (KGAST) Established

in 1973 KGAST is the representative body for

investment foundations

Attractive basic features

Investment foundations have several key fea-

tures a clear defi nition of eligible investors

investment rules governed by occupational

pension laws and a deeply rooted commit-

ment to independence In 2012 these ldquoannexrdquo

occupational pension institutions will for the

fi rst time become explicitly regulated under

Swiss federal law governing occupational pen-

sion plans

Real estate investment groups can be classifi ed

by country of investment (Switzerland global)

and pricing mechanism (exchange-traded

based on net asset value or NAV) Most

groups invest in NAV-based Swiss real estate

they account for around 21 billion Swiss francs

in assets There are currently 22 investment

groups with residential commercial or mixed

portfolios The 10 groups in the mixed seg-

ment hold around 65 percent of the real estate

assets These investment groups are also much

less indebted than real estate funds or stock

corporations with debt levels averaging

around 10 percent

Rapid increase in real estate assets

The graph shows the rapid increase in assets

held by investment groups in the KGAST Real

Estate Index over the past decade While asset

performance almost stagnated until 2001

KGAST began admitting more pure-play real

estate investment foundations in 2004 This

stimulated the market as did numerous re-

launches of existing foundations The volume

of real estate assets has recently swelled by

2 billion francs per year on average The

number of vehicles also increased sharply In

2000 the market was split between three in-

vestment groups with real estate assets total-

ing 19 billion Swiss francs In 2010 by con-

trast at least fi ve new groups entered the

market Other groups are being established

and KGAST is preparing to admit other real

estate investment foundations Real estate in-

vestments have gained considerable he in the

last decade ndash within and outside of investment

foundations They now represent one quarter

of the assets managed by KGAST investment

foundations as opposed to one sixth in 2000

Investment foundations are established pen-

sion fund vehicles that unlike real estate funds

grant investors certain participation rights As

indirect unlisted investments real estate in-

vestment groups behave much like direct real

estate investments but are more liquid and

tend to exhibit low volatility especially com-

pared to the market-price fl uctuations of listed

real estate products Investment foundations

are also exempt from direct taxes KGAST has

been working for several years to institute

standards (for fi nancial data etc) to make in-

vestment products more transparent and easier

to compare The KGAST Real Estate Index

which contains the Swiss real estate investment

groups has gained 49 percent on average

over the past fi ve years

25

20

10

5

15

0

25

20

10

5

15

02009 20102003200220012000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth momentum likely to remain high

Sources KGAST Watson Wyatt UBS GAM (calculation)

Changes in real estate assets and number of investment groups in KGAST Real Estate Index Switzerland

Total assets under management in CHF bn Number of investment groups (right-hand scale)

Urs Faumls

Global Asset Management

UBS AG

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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MonoImageFilter FlateEncode MonoImageDict ltlt K -1 gtgt AllowPSXObjects true CheckCompliance [ None ] PDFX1aCheck false PDFX3Check false PDFXCompliantPDFOnly false PDFXNoTrimBoxError true PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [ 000000 000000 000000 000000 ] PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [ 000000 000000 000000 000000 ] PDFXOutputIntentProfile () PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier () PDFXOutputCondition () PDFXRegistryName () PDFXTrapped False CreateJDFFile false Description ltlt DEU ([Basiert auf [IG]] ) gtgt Namespace [ (Adobe) (Common) (10) ] OtherNamespaces [ ltlt AsReaderSpreads true CropImagesToFrames true ErrorControl WarnAndContinue FlattenerIgnoreSpreadOverrides false IncludeGuidesGrids false IncludeNonPrinting false IncludeSlug false Namespace [ (Adobe) (InDesign) (40) ] OmitPlacedBitmaps false OmitPlacedEPS false OmitPlacedPDF false SimulateOverprint Legacy gtgt ltlt AllowImageBreaks true AllowTableBreaks true ExpandPage false HonorBaseURL true HonorRolloverEffect false IgnoreHTMLPageBreaks false IncludeHeaderFooter false MarginOffset [ 0 0 0 0 ] MetadataAuthor () MetadataKeywords () MetadataSubject () MetadataTitle () MetricPageSize [ 0 0 ] MetricUnit inch MobileCompatible 0 Namespace [ (Adobe) (GoLive) (80) ] OpenZoomToHTMLFontSize false PageOrientation Portrait RemoveBackground false ShrinkContent true TreatColorsAs MainMonitorColors UseEmbeddedProfiles false UseHTMLTitleAsMetadata true gtgt ltlt AddBleedMarks false AddColorBars false AddCropMarks false AddPageInfo false AddRegMarks false BleedOffset [ 0 0 0 0 ] ConvertColors ConvertToCMYK DestinationProfileName (PSO Uncoated ISO12647 (ECI)) DestinationProfileSelector UseName Downsample16BitImages true FlattenerPreset ltlt PresetSelector MediumResolution gtgt FormElements true GenerateStructure false IncludeBookmarks false IncludeHyperlinks false IncludeInteractive false IncludeLayers false IncludeProfiles false MarksOffset 6 MarksWeight 0250000 MultimediaHandling UseObjectSettings Namespace [ (Adobe) (CreativeSuite) (20) ] PDFXOutputIntentProfileSelector DocumentCMYK PageMarksFile RomanDefault PreserveEditing true UntaggedCMYKHandling UseDocumentProfile UntaggedRGBHandling UseDocumentProfile UseDocumentBleed false gtgt ]gtgt setdistillerparamsltlt HWResolution [144 144] PageSize [612000 792000]gtgt setpagedevice

Page 38: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 201138

Investors can in principle enter and exit invest-

ment groups fairly easily Most groups how-

ever are currently closed to new investors This

protects existing investors and prevents profi ts

and returns from being diluted unnecessarily

Due to high demand for real estate investment

groups capital increases are o en oversub-

scribed in some cases by a wide margin

Asset swaps ndash the new trend

Pension funds can swap their directly owned

properties for shares in an investment founda-

tion This is an attractive option for funds They

receive more fl exible indirect shares in exchange

for real estate but o en do not change their

tax situation Asset swaps take time to complete

and generally cover three phases preparation

closing and post-closing Tax and legal issues

warrant special attention Swiss pension funds

are exempt from taxes except for cantonal tax-

es on property gains and transfers Even so real

estate can still be transferred to an investment

foundation without incurring high property-gain

or transfer taxes Each transaction however

has to be prepared and negotiated with the tax

authorities

KGAST surveyed its members about asset

swaps at the end of 2009 It found that asset

swaps accounted for roughly 5 billion Swiss

francs in transaction volume since 2002 The

past eight years have seen 54 swaps worth

around 90 million Swiss francs This period can

be divided into two phases 2002 to 2005 and

2005 to 2009 The fi rst phase consisted of a

handful of large transactions worth slightly

more than 29 billion Swiss francs in total The

second witnessed a larger number of swaps

The fi gures were relatively large in 2009 nine

transactions worth over 380 million Swiss

francs in total The most important sector was

residential property at 87 percent Asset

swaps will remain an important trend with

annual volume estimated at around 500 million

Swiss francs for the next fi ve years This type

of transaction should keep the real estate

investment groups of investment foundations

growing at a rapid rate

Valuable solutions

Real estate makes up an average of 15 to 20 percent of the portfo-

lios of Swiss pension funds and most of these funds own their Swiss

properties directly What is the best long-term solution for this in-

vestment Without a wide network it can be hard to purchase

good reasonably priced properties Indirect real estate investments

are either closed (real estate investment foundations) or trade at high

premiums (exchange-traded real estate fundsstock corporations)

Swiss project developments and foreign direct investments can easily

go wrong as well Real estate is a challenging asset class that requires

experience market knowledge and a dynamic environment Investors

should turn to real estate experts to identify real estate solutions that

meet their needs Investment foundations can provide ideas and

valuable options from new or existing investment groups to asset

swaps and private label solutions to global (direct and indirect) real

estate investments

In focus Listed real estate and investment foundations

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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Page 39: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

Our services

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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HonorRolloverEffect false IgnoreHTMLPageBreaks false IncludeHeaderFooter false MarginOffset [ 0 0 0 0 ] MetadataAuthor () MetadataKeywords () MetadataSubject () MetadataTitle () MetricPageSize [ 0 0 ] MetricUnit inch MobileCompatible 0 Namespace [ (Adobe) (GoLive) (80) ] OpenZoomToHTMLFontSize false PageOrientation Portrait RemoveBackground false ShrinkContent true TreatColorsAs MainMonitorColors UseEmbeddedProfiles false UseHTMLTitleAsMetadata true gtgt ltlt AddBleedMarks false AddColorBars false AddCropMarks false AddPageInfo false AddRegMarks false BleedOffset [ 0 0 0 0 ] ConvertColors ConvertToCMYK DestinationProfileName (PSO Uncoated ISO12647 (ECI)) DestinationProfileSelector UseName Downsample16BitImages true FlattenerPreset ltlt PresetSelector MediumResolution gtgt FormElements true GenerateStructure false IncludeBookmarks false IncludeHyperlinks false IncludeInteractive false IncludeLayers false IncludeProfiles false MarksOffset 6 MarksWeight 0250000 MultimediaHandling UseObjectSettings Namespace [ (Adobe) (CreativeSuite) (20) ] PDFXOutputIntentProfileSelector DocumentCMYK PageMarksFile RomanDefault PreserveEditing true UntaggedCMYKHandling UseDocumentProfile UntaggedRGBHandling UseDocumentProfile UseDocumentBleed false gtgt ]gtgt setdistillerparamsltlt HWResolution [144 144] PageSize [612000 792000]gtgt setpagedevice

Page 40: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 201140

Our comprehensive portfolio of real estate services

Our services

Real estate advisory

Real Estate Advisory

Interdisciplinary value-added advisory bull

services on the Swiss real estate market

Strategy and transaction advisory real estate bull

corporate finance lifecycle advisory

Real estate brokerage

Real Estate Advisory

Sale of high-end residential properties bull

starting at 5 million Swiss francs

Placement of undeveloped lots 3000 mbull 2 and

up in exclusive locations

Real estate advisory

Real estate research

Succession planning

Real estate brokerage

Real estate

Retirement planning

Mortgage products

Asset Management

real estateglobal

Asset Management

real estateSwitzerland

Real estate purchasessales sale and rent bull

back asset swaps PPPs

Advisory for companies individuals bull

institutional investors pension funds

Real estate support with relocation bull

(companies or individuals)

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

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StartPage 1 SubsetFonts true TransferFunctionInfo Preserve UCRandBGInfo Remove UsePrologue false ColorSettingsFile () AlwaysEmbed [ true ] NeverEmbed [ true Courier Courier-Bold Courier-BoldOblique Courier-Oblique Helvetica Helvetica-Bold Helvetica-BoldOblique Helvetica-Oblique Symbol Times-Bold Times-BoldItalic Times-Italic Times-Roman ZapfDingbats ] AntiAliasColorImages false CropColorImages false ColorImageMinResolution 150 ColorImageMinResolutionPolicy OK DownsampleColorImages true ColorImageDownsampleType Average ColorImageResolution 100 ColorImageDepth -1 ColorImageMinDownsampleDepth 1 ColorImageDownsampleThreshold 150000 EncodeColorImages true ColorImageFilter DCTEncode AutoFilterColorImages false ColorImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG ColorACSImageDict ltlt QFactor 015 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1] gtgt ColorImageDict ltlt QFactor 040 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1] gtgt JPEG2000ColorACSImageDict ltlt TileWidth 256 TileHeight 256 Quality 30 gtgt JPEG2000ColorImageDict 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HonorRolloverEffect false IgnoreHTMLPageBreaks false IncludeHeaderFooter false MarginOffset [ 0 0 0 0 ] MetadataAuthor () MetadataKeywords () MetadataSubject () MetadataTitle () MetricPageSize [ 0 0 ] MetricUnit inch MobileCompatible 0 Namespace [ (Adobe) (GoLive) (80) ] OpenZoomToHTMLFontSize false PageOrientation Portrait RemoveBackground false ShrinkContent true TreatColorsAs MainMonitorColors UseEmbeddedProfiles false UseHTMLTitleAsMetadata true gtgt ltlt AddBleedMarks false AddColorBars false AddCropMarks false AddPageInfo false AddRegMarks false BleedOffset [ 0 0 0 0 ] ConvertColors ConvertToCMYK DestinationProfileName (PSO Uncoated ISO12647 (ECI)) DestinationProfileSelector UseName Downsample16BitImages true FlattenerPreset ltlt PresetSelector MediumResolution gtgt FormElements true GenerateStructure false IncludeBookmarks false IncludeHyperlinks false IncludeInteractive false IncludeLayers false IncludeProfiles false MarksOffset 6 MarksWeight 0250000 MultimediaHandling UseObjectSettings Namespace [ (Adobe) (CreativeSuite) (20) ] PDFXOutputIntentProfileSelector DocumentCMYK PageMarksFile RomanDefault PreserveEditing true UntaggedCMYKHandling UseDocumentProfile UntaggedRGBHandling UseDocumentProfile UseDocumentBleed false gtgt ]gtgt setdistillerparamsltlt HWResolution [144 144] PageSize [612000 792000]gtgt setpagedevice

Page 41: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 2011 41

Asset Management real estate global

Global Real Estate

Access to global direct and indirect real bull

estate investment products

Development of international real estate bull

investment strategies and solutions

Global Real Estate ndash Switzerland

Wide range of Swiss real estate investment bull

products

Market- and client-centric solutions in institu-bull

tional segments such as property purchases

sales project developments asset swaps

Retirement planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Customized comprehensive risk and bull

retirement advisory

Optimization of wealth structure (amount of bull

mortgage amortization insurance)

Succession planning

Wealth Planning Switzerland

Wide-ranging advisory services on matrimo-bull

nial and inheritance law

Advisory services on various conveyancing bull

options sale inheritance or gift

Real estate research

Wealth Management Real Estate Research

Regular research reports on the Swiss and bull

global real estate markets

Fact sheets and presentations on all Swiss bull

municipalities and regions

Present in every major city worldwide with bull

around 400 real estate specialists

Worldrsquos second-largest real estate asset bull

manager

sale and rent back private-public

partnerships

Switzerlandrsquos leading provider of real estate bull

funds with over 65 years of experience

Using pillar 2 and 3 pension benefits for bull

financing

Tax aspects of conveyances (inheritance gift bull

usufructuary or residential rights property

gains tax real estate transfer tax etc)

Investment overviews on Swiss and global bull

exchange-traded real estate investments

Real estate presentations at various events bull

Our services

Mortgage products

Banking Products

Building finance fixed-rate and Libor bull

mortgages specific mortgage solutions

Interest rate hedging products whole life bull

insurance

Wide-ranging services for financing homes bull

holiday properties multifamily dwellings and

commercial real estate

As a UBS client you can use any of these services Simply contact your client advisor

Asset Management real estate Switzerland

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

ltlt ASCII85EncodePages false AllowTransparency false AutoPositionEPSFiles true AutoRotatePages All Binding Left CalGrayProfile (Dot Gain 20) CalRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-21) CalCMYKProfile (PSO Uncoated ISO12647 050ECI051) sRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-21) CannotEmbedFontPolicy Warning CompatibilityLevel 13 CompressObjects Off CompressPages true ConvertImagesToIndexed true PassThroughJPEGImages false CreateJobTicket false DefaultRenderingIntent Default DetectBlends true DetectCurves 01000 ColorConversionStrategy CMYK DoThumbnails false EmbedAllFonts true EmbedOpenType false ParseICCProfilesInComments true EmbedJobOptions true DSCReportingLevel 0 EmitDSCWarnings false EndPage -1 ImageMemory 524288 LockDistillerParams false MaxSubsetPct 100 Optimize true OPM 1 ParseDSCComments true ParseDSCCommentsForDocInfo true PreserveCopyPage true PreserveDICMYKValues true PreserveEPSInfo false PreserveFlatness false PreserveHalftoneInfo false PreserveOPIComments false PreserveOverprintSettings true StartPage 1 SubsetFonts true TransferFunctionInfo Preserve UCRandBGInfo Remove UsePrologue false ColorSettingsFile () AlwaysEmbed [ true ] NeverEmbed [ true Courier Courier-Bold Courier-BoldOblique Courier-Oblique Helvetica Helvetica-Bold Helvetica-BoldOblique Helvetica-Oblique Symbol Times-Bold Times-BoldItalic Times-Italic Times-Roman ZapfDingbats ] AntiAliasColorImages false CropColorImages false ColorImageMinResolution 150 ColorImageMinResolutionPolicy OK DownsampleColorImages true ColorImageDownsampleType Average ColorImageResolution 100 ColorImageDepth -1 ColorImageMinDownsampleDepth 1 ColorImageDownsampleThreshold 150000 EncodeColorImages true ColorImageFilter DCTEncode AutoFilterColorImages false ColorImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG ColorACSImageDict ltlt QFactor 015 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1] gtgt ColorImageDict ltlt QFactor 040 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1] gtgt JPEG2000ColorACSImageDict ltlt TileWidth 256 TileHeight 256 Quality 30 gtgt JPEG2000ColorImageDict ltlt TileWidth 256 TileHeight 256 Quality 30 gtgt AntiAliasGrayImages false CropGrayImages false GrayImageMinResolution 150 GrayImageMinResolutionPolicy OK DownsampleGrayImages true GrayImageDownsampleType Average GrayImageResolution 100 GrayImageDepth -1 GrayImageMinDownsampleDepth 2 GrayImageDownsampleThreshold 150000 EncodeGrayImages true GrayImageFilter DCTEncode AutoFilterGrayImages false GrayImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG GrayACSImageDict ltlt QFactor 015 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1] gtgt GrayImageDict ltlt QFactor 040 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1] gtgt JPEG2000GrayACSImageDict ltlt TileWidth 256 TileHeight 256 Quality 30 gtgt JPEG2000GrayImageDict ltlt TileWidth 256 TileHeight 256 Quality 30 gtgt AntiAliasMonoImages false CropMonoImages false MonoImageMinResolution 1200 MonoImageMinResolutionPolicy OK DownsampleMonoImages true MonoImageDownsampleType Average MonoImageResolution 100 MonoImageDepth -1 MonoImageDownsampleThreshold 150000 EncodeMonoImages true MonoImageFilter FlateEncode MonoImageDict ltlt K -1 gtgt AllowPSXObjects true CheckCompliance [ None ] PDFX1aCheck false PDFX3Check false PDFXCompliantPDFOnly false PDFXNoTrimBoxError true PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [ 000000 000000 000000 000000 ] PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [ 000000 000000 000000 000000 ] PDFXOutputIntentProfile () PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier () PDFXOutputCondition () PDFXRegistryName () PDFXTrapped False CreateJDFFile false Description ltlt DEU ([Basiert auf [IG]] ) gtgt Namespace [ (Adobe) (Common) (10) ] OtherNamespaces [ ltlt AsReaderSpreads true CropImagesToFrames true ErrorControl WarnAndContinue FlattenerIgnoreSpreadOverrides false IncludeGuidesGrids false IncludeNonPrinting false IncludeSlug false Namespace [ (Adobe) (InDesign) (40) ] OmitPlacedBitmaps false OmitPlacedEPS false OmitPlacedPDF false SimulateOverprint Legacy gtgt ltlt AllowImageBreaks true AllowTableBreaks true ExpandPage false HonorBaseURL true HonorRolloverEffect false IgnoreHTMLPageBreaks false IncludeHeaderFooter false MarginOffset [ 0 0 0 0 ] MetadataAuthor () MetadataKeywords () MetadataSubject () MetadataTitle () MetricPageSize [ 0 0 ] MetricUnit inch MobileCompatible 0 Namespace [ (Adobe) (GoLive) (80) ] OpenZoomToHTMLFontSize false PageOrientation Portrait RemoveBackground false ShrinkContent true TreatColorsAs MainMonitorColors UseEmbeddedProfiles false UseHTMLTitleAsMetadata true gtgt ltlt AddBleedMarks false AddColorBars false AddCropMarks false AddPageInfo false AddRegMarks false BleedOffset [ 0 0 0 0 ] ConvertColors ConvertToCMYK DestinationProfileName (PSO Uncoated ISO12647 (ECI)) DestinationProfileSelector UseName Downsample16BitImages true FlattenerPreset ltlt PresetSelector MediumResolution gtgt FormElements true GenerateStructure false IncludeBookmarks false IncludeHyperlinks false IncludeInteractive false IncludeLayers false IncludeProfiles false MarksOffset 6 MarksWeight 0250000 MultimediaHandling UseObjectSettings Namespace [ (Adobe) (CreativeSuite) (20) ] PDFXOutputIntentProfileSelector DocumentCMYK PageMarksFile RomanDefault PreserveEditing true UntaggedCMYKHandling UseDocumentProfile UntaggedRGBHandling UseDocumentProfile UseDocumentBleed false gtgt ]gtgt setdistillerparamsltlt HWResolution [144 144] PageSize [612000 792000]gtgt setpagedevice

Page 42: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 201142

Selection of research publications

WMR reports

WMR reports are the primary source of

investment ideas presenting the rationale

behind our calls along with actionable

conclusions They are published during the

day and mostly driven by current market

developments

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide

UBS investorrsquos guide gives the background to

UBSrsquos current investment strategy and the

latest global economic developments to-

gether with market analyses and recommen-

dations for equities bonds currencies and

the emerging markets

Available in English German French Italian

traditional Chinese and simplifi ed Chinese

UBS research focus

UBS research focus examines how major

global trends aff ect personal wealth planning

decisions Each issue is devoted to a specifi c

subject spanning the fi elds of economics

fi nancial markets and investment

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish and Portuguese

Sept 2010 The rush for resources

challenges emerging markets

Oct 2010 Germany in the fast lane

Nov 2010 Pricing the new how investors

should value innovation

UBS outlook Switzerland

UBS outlook Switzerland caters primarily to

Swiss entrepreneurs and managers Each issue

presents the results of UBS Research

Switzerlandrsquos survey of industrial and service

companies regarding their business outlook

as well as analysis of currencies interest rates

and the real estate market The fourth quarter

2010 issue focuses on succession issues for

family businesses

Available in German French and Italian

UBS investorrsquos guide update

The weekly update of UBS investorrsquos guide is

designed for active investors who want to use

short-term opportunities in the markets and

make investment decisions based on sound

information These electronic updates com-

plement the extensive monthly edition

Available in English German French and

Italian

UBS global outlook

UBS global outlook is a fl agship publication

that provides a comprehensive assessment of

the global macroeconomic outlook key in-

vestment opportunities and important fi nan-

cial market risks

Available in English German French Italian

Spanish Portuguese traditional Chinese

simplifi ed Chinese and Russian

OnlinePublications with content available to the general public can be found at

wwwubscomresearch

Clients can access our online Wealth Management Research portal via e-banking

The portal contains electronic versions of all our publications and much more

Daily

Order or subscribe

UBS clients can order or subscribe to the above-mentioned publications Please ask your client advisor or send an e-mail to

sh-iz-ubs-publikationenubscom

Thematic

Weekly Monthly

UBS global outlookWealth Management ResearchDecember 2010

Global economy divided in 2011

Equities our preferred investment

New rules No major currency should be considered safe

New rules Reevaluation of ldquorisk-freerdquo within fixed income

Look beyond traditional investments

2011A fractured world

Quarterly Quarterly

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

ab

ltlt ASCII85EncodePages false AllowTransparency false AutoPositionEPSFiles true AutoRotatePages All Binding Left CalGrayProfile (Dot Gain 20) CalRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-21) CalCMYKProfile (PSO Uncoated ISO12647 050ECI051) sRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-21) CannotEmbedFontPolicy Warning CompatibilityLevel 13 CompressObjects Off CompressPages true ConvertImagesToIndexed true PassThroughJPEGImages false CreateJobTicket false DefaultRenderingIntent Default DetectBlends true DetectCurves 01000 ColorConversionStrategy CMYK DoThumbnails false EmbedAllFonts true EmbedOpenType false ParseICCProfilesInComments true EmbedJobOptions true DSCReportingLevel 0 EmitDSCWarnings false EndPage -1 ImageMemory 524288 LockDistillerParams false MaxSubsetPct 100 Optimize true OPM 1 ParseDSCComments true ParseDSCCommentsForDocInfo true PreserveCopyPage true PreserveDICMYKValues true PreserveEPSInfo false PreserveFlatness false PreserveHalftoneInfo false PreserveOPIComments false PreserveOverprintSettings true StartPage 1 SubsetFonts true TransferFunctionInfo Preserve UCRandBGInfo Remove UsePrologue false ColorSettingsFile () AlwaysEmbed [ true ] NeverEmbed [ true Courier Courier-Bold Courier-BoldOblique Courier-Oblique Helvetica Helvetica-Bold Helvetica-BoldOblique Helvetica-Oblique Symbol Times-Bold Times-BoldItalic Times-Italic Times-Roman ZapfDingbats ] AntiAliasColorImages false CropColorImages false ColorImageMinResolution 150 ColorImageMinResolutionPolicy OK DownsampleColorImages true ColorImageDownsampleType Average ColorImageResolution 100 ColorImageDepth -1 ColorImageMinDownsampleDepth 1 ColorImageDownsampleThreshold 150000 EncodeColorImages true ColorImageFilter DCTEncode AutoFilterColorImages false ColorImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG ColorACSImageDict ltlt QFactor 015 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1] gtgt ColorImageDict ltlt QFactor 040 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1] gtgt JPEG2000ColorACSImageDict ltlt TileWidth 256 TileHeight 256 Quality 30 gtgt JPEG2000ColorImageDict ltlt TileWidth 256 TileHeight 256 Quality 30 gtgt AntiAliasGrayImages false CropGrayImages false GrayImageMinResolution 150 GrayImageMinResolutionPolicy OK DownsampleGrayImages true GrayImageDownsampleType Average GrayImageResolution 100 GrayImageDepth -1 GrayImageMinDownsampleDepth 2 GrayImageDownsampleThreshold 150000 EncodeGrayImages true GrayImageFilter DCTEncode AutoFilterGrayImages false GrayImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG GrayACSImageDict ltlt QFactor 015 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1] gtgt GrayImageDict ltlt QFactor 040 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1] gtgt JPEG2000GrayACSImageDict ltlt TileWidth 256 TileHeight 256 Quality 30 gtgt JPEG2000GrayImageDict ltlt TileWidth 256 TileHeight 256 Quality 30 gtgt AntiAliasMonoImages false CropMonoImages false MonoImageMinResolution 1200 MonoImageMinResolutionPolicy OK DownsampleMonoImages true MonoImageDownsampleType Average MonoImageResolution 100 MonoImageDepth -1 MonoImageDownsampleThreshold 150000 EncodeMonoImages true MonoImageFilter FlateEncode MonoImageDict ltlt K -1 gtgt AllowPSXObjects true CheckCompliance [ None ] PDFX1aCheck false PDFX3Check false PDFXCompliantPDFOnly false PDFXNoTrimBoxError true PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [ 000000 000000 000000 000000 ] PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [ 000000 000000 000000 000000 ] PDFXOutputIntentProfile () PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier () PDFXOutputCondition () PDFXRegistryName () PDFXTrapped False CreateJDFFile false Description ltlt DEU ([Basiert auf [IG]] ) gtgt Namespace [ (Adobe) (Common) (10) ] OtherNamespaces [ ltlt AsReaderSpreads true CropImagesToFrames true ErrorControl WarnAndContinue FlattenerIgnoreSpreadOverrides false IncludeGuidesGrids false IncludeNonPrinting false IncludeSlug false Namespace [ (Adobe) (InDesign) (40) ] OmitPlacedBitmaps false OmitPlacedEPS false OmitPlacedPDF false SimulateOverprint Legacy gtgt ltlt AllowImageBreaks true AllowTableBreaks true ExpandPage false HonorBaseURL true HonorRolloverEffect false IgnoreHTMLPageBreaks false IncludeHeaderFooter false MarginOffset [ 0 0 0 0 ] MetadataAuthor () MetadataKeywords () MetadataSubject () MetadataTitle () MetricPageSize [ 0 0 ] MetricUnit inch MobileCompatible 0 Namespace [ (Adobe) (GoLive) (80) ] OpenZoomToHTMLFontSize false PageOrientation Portrait RemoveBackground false ShrinkContent true TreatColorsAs MainMonitorColors UseEmbeddedProfiles false UseHTMLTitleAsMetadata true gtgt ltlt AddBleedMarks false AddColorBars false AddCropMarks false AddPageInfo false AddRegMarks false BleedOffset [ 0 0 0 0 ] ConvertColors ConvertToCMYK DestinationProfileName (PSO Uncoated ISO12647 (ECI)) DestinationProfileSelector UseName Downsample16BitImages true FlattenerPreset ltlt PresetSelector MediumResolution gtgt FormElements true GenerateStructure false IncludeBookmarks false IncludeHyperlinks false IncludeInteractive false IncludeLayers false IncludeProfiles false MarksOffset 6 MarksWeight 0250000 MultimediaHandling UseObjectSettings Namespace [ (Adobe) (CreativeSuite) (20) ] PDFXOutputIntentProfileSelector DocumentCMYK PageMarksFile RomanDefault PreserveEditing true UntaggedCMYKHandling UseDocumentProfile UntaggedRGBHandling UseDocumentProfile UseDocumentBleed false gtgt ]gtgt setdistillerparamsltlt HWResolution [144 144] PageSize [612000 792000]gtgt setpagedevice

Page 43: UBS real estate focus - unibas.ch · you in UBS real estate focus, ... This structure helps you quickly get up to speed on the topics we cover. We hope that UBS real estate focus

UBS real estate focus January 2011 43

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management amp Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affi li-

ate thereof In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an off er or a solicitation of an

off er to buy or sell any investment or other specifi c product The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions Diff erent assumptions could result in

materially diff erent results Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be off ered worldwide on an unrestricted basis andor may not be

eligible for sale to all investors All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty express or implied is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and its affi liates) All information and

opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice Opinions expressed herein may diff er or be

contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as a result of using diff erent assumptions andor criteria At any time UBS AG and other com-

panies in the UBS group (or employees thereof) may have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or provide advisory or other

services to the issuer of relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securities

is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be diffi cult to quantify UBS relies on information barriers to

control the fl ow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS into other areas units divisions or affi liates of UBS Futures and options trading is consid-

ered risky Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for its future performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on

realization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more Changes in FX rates may have an adverse eff ect on the price value or income

of an investment We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives fi nancial situation and needs of our individual clients and we

would recommend that you take fi nancial andor tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein This document

may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or a subsidiary of UBS UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document

to third parties for any reason UBS will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document This report

is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law

Australia Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 231127) Chifl ey Tower 2 Chifl ey Square Sydney

New South Wales NSW 2000 Austria This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er or a comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be

used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public off ering of securities in Austria The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this infor-

mation and may under no circumstances be passed on to any other investor Bahamas This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not

intended for distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations Belgium This publication is not

intended to constitute a public off er under Belgian law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS Belgium SA with registered offi ce

Avenue de Tervueren 300 at 1150 Brussels a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommission Bancaire Financiegravere et des Assurancesrdquo (CBFA) to which this

publication has not been submitted for approval Canada In Canada this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment

Management Canada Inc Dubai Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distribu-

tion within the United Arab Emirates France This publication is distributed by UBS (France) SA French ldquosocieacuteteacute anonymerdquo with share capital of euro125726944 69

boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris RCS Paris B 421 255 670 to its clients and prospects UBS (France) SA is a provider of investment services duly authorized

according to the terms of the ldquoCode Moneacutetaire et Financierrdquo regulated by French banking and fi nancial authorities as the ldquoBanque de Francerdquo and the ldquoAutoriteacute des

Marcheacutes Financiersrdquo Germany The issuer under German Law is UBS Deutschland AG Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2ndash4 60306 Frankfurt am Main UBS Deutschland

AG is authorized and regulated by the ldquoBundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsichtrdquo Hong Kong This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong

Branch by UBS AG Hong Kong Branch a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordi-

nance Indonesia This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public off ering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law

and its implementing regulations Securities mentioned in this material have not been and will not be registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regu-

lations Italy This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS (Italia) SpA via del Vecchio Politecnico 3 Milano an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to

the provision of fi nancial services and supervised by ldquoConsobrdquo and Bank of Italy Jersey UBS AG Jersey Branch is regulated and authorized by the Jersey Financial

Services Commission for the conduct of banking funds and investment business Luxembourg This publication is not intended to constitute a public off er under

Luxembourg law but might be made available for information purposes to clients of UBS (Luxembourg) SA a regulated bank under the supervision of the ldquoCommis-

sion de Surveillance du Secteur Financierrdquo (CSSF) to which this publication has not been submitted for approval Singapore Please contact UBS AG Singapore branch

an exempt fi nancial adviser under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (Cap 110) and a wholesale bank licensed under the Singapore Banking Act (Cap 19) regulated

by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with the analysis or report Spain This publication is distributed to

clients of UBS Bank SA by UBS Bank SA a bank registered with the Bank of Spain UAE This research report is not intended to constitute an off er sale or delivery

of shares or other securities under the laws of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any authority in

the United Arab Emirates including the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Authorities the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority the Dubai Financial Mar-

ket the Abu Dhabi Securities market or any other UAE exchange UK Approved by UBS AG authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority A

member of the London Stock Exchange This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS London in the UK Where products or services are provided from outside

the UK they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme USA This document is not intended for distribution into

the US andor to US persons UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affi liate of UBS Financial Services Inc UBS Financial Services Inc is a subsidiary of

UBS AG

Version as per January 2010

copy UBS 2011 The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS All rights reserved

IMO-COC-028666

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StartPage 1 SubsetFonts true TransferFunctionInfo Preserve UCRandBGInfo Remove UsePrologue false ColorSettingsFile () AlwaysEmbed [ true ] NeverEmbed [ true Courier Courier-Bold Courier-BoldOblique Courier-Oblique Helvetica Helvetica-Bold Helvetica-BoldOblique Helvetica-Oblique Symbol Times-Bold Times-BoldItalic Times-Italic Times-Roman ZapfDingbats ] AntiAliasColorImages false CropColorImages false ColorImageMinResolution 150 ColorImageMinResolutionPolicy OK DownsampleColorImages true ColorImageDownsampleType Average ColorImageResolution 100 ColorImageDepth -1 ColorImageMinDownsampleDepth 1 ColorImageDownsampleThreshold 150000 EncodeColorImages true ColorImageFilter DCTEncode AutoFilterColorImages false ColorImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG ColorACSImageDict ltlt QFactor 015 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1] gtgt ColorImageDict ltlt QFactor 040 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1] gtgt JPEG2000ColorACSImageDict ltlt TileWidth 256 TileHeight 256 Quality 30 gtgt JPEG2000ColorImageDict 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ltlt ASCII85EncodePages false AllowTransparency false AutoPositionEPSFiles true AutoRotatePages All Binding Left CalGrayProfile (Dot Gain 20) CalRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-21) CalCMYKProfile (PSO Uncoated ISO12647 050ECI051) sRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-21) CannotEmbedFontPolicy Warning CompatibilityLevel 13 CompressObjects Off CompressPages true ConvertImagesToIndexed true PassThroughJPEGImages false CreateJobTicket false DefaultRenderingIntent Default DetectBlends true DetectCurves 01000 ColorConversionStrategy CMYK DoThumbnails false EmbedAllFonts true EmbedOpenType false ParseICCProfilesInComments true EmbedJobOptions true DSCReportingLevel 0 EmitDSCWarnings false EndPage -1 ImageMemory 524288 LockDistillerParams false MaxSubsetPct 100 Optimize true OPM 1 ParseDSCComments true ParseDSCCommentsForDocInfo true PreserveCopyPage true PreserveDICMYKValues true PreserveEPSInfo false PreserveFlatness false PreserveHalftoneInfo false PreserveOPIComments false PreserveOverprintSettings true StartPage 1 SubsetFonts true TransferFunctionInfo Preserve UCRandBGInfo Remove UsePrologue false ColorSettingsFile () AlwaysEmbed [ true ] NeverEmbed [ true Courier Courier-Bold Courier-BoldOblique Courier-Oblique Helvetica Helvetica-Bold Helvetica-BoldOblique Helvetica-Oblique Symbol Times-Bold Times-BoldItalic Times-Italic Times-Roman ZapfDingbats ] AntiAliasColorImages false CropColorImages false ColorImageMinResolution 150 ColorImageMinResolutionPolicy OK DownsampleColorImages true ColorImageDownsampleType Average ColorImageResolution 100 ColorImageDepth -1 ColorImageMinDownsampleDepth 1 ColorImageDownsampleThreshold 150000 EncodeColorImages true ColorImageFilter DCTEncode AutoFilterColorImages false ColorImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG ColorACSImageDict ltlt QFactor 015 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1] gtgt ColorImageDict ltlt QFactor 040 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1] gtgt JPEG2000ColorACSImageDict ltlt TileWidth 256 TileHeight 256 Quality 30 gtgt JPEG2000ColorImageDict 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UseObjectSettings Namespace [ (Adobe) (CreativeSuite) (20) ] PDFXOutputIntentProfileSelector DocumentCMYK PageMarksFile RomanDefault PreserveEditing true UntaggedCMYKHandling UseDocumentProfile UntaggedRGBHandling UseDocumentProfile UseDocumentBleed false gtgt ]gtgt setdistillerparamsltlt HWResolution [144 144] PageSize [612000 792000]gtgt setpagedevice