The Powerful Edge of Market Neutral Equity Pairs www.PairTrader.com Presented by: Don Bright
Dec 27, 2015
The Powerful Edge of Market Neutral Equity Pairs
www.PairTrader.com
Presented by: Don Bright
What is a Pair?
The combination of two stocks to profit from their relative change in price through divergence or convergence of the spread price.
Statistical Arbitrage vs. Risk Arbitrage
Created for different purposes traded with many different strategies
Creating a Spread Price to Watch
Example: Long Alcan vs. Short Alcoa
DifferentialLast Price of AL minus Last Price of AA
48.06 – 30.58 = 17.48
• Factor– (.65 x AL) – AA (.65 x 48.06) – 30.58 = .66
• RatioNumerator and Denominator
AA divided by AL 30.58 / 48.06 = .64
Trading Considerations
Goal is Market Neutral
Choices are: Dollar Neutral ($1 long to $1 short)
Beta Neutral (H.V is substitute)
Share Neutral
Best Pairs Created From:
Same Industry Group
Correlated
Exhibit Mean Reverting Tendencies
Why is there the probability of mean reversion over time?
Fundamental Difference Between Stocks
Comparing Metrics is Straightforward
Overvalued / Undervalued to Peers
CnpSrp100 65-Day Chart
Metrics used in Fundamental Comparisons
Value out performs growth when risk adjustedCompare:
Market CapPrice to Book (P/B)Tangible Book ValuesPrice to Earnings (P/E use TTM)Dividend YieldIndustry Group
Short the overvalued stockBuy the undervalued stock
Spread History
Compoundable TradesPredictabilityIntra-day ScalpsMarket Neutral Swing TradeRelative Strength PairsBasketsPair InvestingFundamental EdgeTechnical Edge
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