Top Banner
The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology University of Vermont Burlington, VT 05405 U.S.A.
118

The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Dec 14, 2015

Download

Documents

Madilyn Worthy
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous

Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea

Nicholas J. GotelliDepartment of BiologyUniversity of VermontBurlington, VT 05405

U.S.A.

Page 2: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

0

50

100

150

200

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

Ter

agra

ms

of

Nit

rog

en

Fertilizer NOx

Total anthropogenic N fixed

Natural range

Page 3: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.
Page 4: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Effects of N Deposition

• IndividualAltered morphologyChanges in reproduction, survivorship

Page 5: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Effects of N Deposition

• IndividualAltered morphologyChanges in reproduction, survivorship

• PopulationIncreased long-term extinction riskChanges in short-term dynamics

Page 6: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Effects of N Deposition• Individual

Altered morphologyChanges in reproduction, survivorship

• Population Increased long-term extinction riskChanges in short-term dynamics

• CommunityChanges in abundance and compositionAltered nutrient transfer and storage

Page 7: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Effects of N Deposition on Carnivorous Plants

• Life History

• Effects on Individuals

• Effects on Populations

• Effects on Communities

• The Role of Ecologists

Page 8: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Effects of N Deposition on Carnivorous Plants

• Life History

• Effects on Individuals

• Effects on Populations

• Effects on Communities

• The Role of Ecologists

Page 9: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Carnivorous plants: well-known, but poorly studied

Page 10: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Carnivory in plants

• Phylogenetically diverse

• Morphological, chemical adaptations for attracting, capturing, digesting arthropods

• Common in low N habitats

• Poor competitors for light, nutrients

Page 11: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Family Sarraceniaceae

Genus Common Name

Number of Species

Distribution

Darlingtonia Cobra Lilly 1 Northwest USA

Heliamphora Sun Pitchers 5 North-central South America

Sarracenia Pitcher Plants 8 Eastern USA, Canada

Page 12: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Genus Sarracenia

• 8 described species

• Center of diversity in southeastern US

• Many subvarieties

• Extensive hybridization

• Sarracenia purpurea (New Jersey- Canada)

Page 13: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

The Northern Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea

• Perennial plant of low-N peatlands

• Lifespan 30-50 y

• Arthropod prey capture in water-filled pitchers

• Diverse inquiline community in pitchers

Page 14: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.
Page 15: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.
Page 16: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

The Inquilines

Wyeomyia smithii

Metriocnemus knabiHabrotrocha rosa

Blaesoxipha fletcheri

Sarraceniopus gibsoni

Page 17: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Inquiline food web

Page 18: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Phyllodia

• Flat leaves

• No prey capture

• High concentration of chlorophyll, stomates

• Photosynthetically more efficient than pitchers

Page 19: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Flowering Stalks

• Single stalk per rosette

• Flowering after3 to 5 years

• Bumblebee, fly pollinated

• Short-distancedispersal of seeds

Page 20: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Leaf Senescence

• End-of-season die off

• Production of new leaves in following spring

• Annual increase in rosette diameter

Page 21: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Effects of N Deposition on Carnivorous Plants

• Life History

• Effects on Individuals

• Effects on Populations

• Effects on Communities

• The Role of Ecologists

Page 22: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Nutrient Treatments

• Distilled H20

• Micronutrients• Low N (0.1 mg/L)• High N (1.0 mg/L)• Low P (0.025 mg/L)• High P (0.25 mg/L)

• N:P(1) Low N + Low P• N:P(2) Low N + High P• N:P(3) High N + Low P

Nutrient Source:

Micronutrients: Hoaglands

N: NH4Cl

P: NaH2PO4

Page 23: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Anthropogenic N additions alter growth and morphology

Page 24: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.
Page 25: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Anthropogenic N additions alter growth and morphology

Increasing N

Page 26: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Effects of Anthropogenic N additions

• Increased production of phyllodiaPhenotypic shift from carnivory to

photosynthesis

• Increased probability of flowering

Page 27: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Contrasting effects of anthropogenic N vs. N derived

from prey

Page 28: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Wakefield, A. E., N. J. Gotelli, S. E. Wittman, and A. M. Ellison. 2005. Prey addition alters nutrient stoichiometry of the carnivorous plant Sarracenia purpurea. Ecology 86: 1737-1743.

Page 29: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Food Addition Experiment

• Ecological “press” experiment

• Food supplemented with house flies• Treatments: 0, 2, 4 ,6, 8,10,12, 14 flies/week

• Plants harvested after one field season

Page 30: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Food additions do not alter growth and morphology

Increasing prey

Page 31: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

N uptake increases with food level

Page 32: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

P uptake increases with food level

Page 33: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

N:P ratio decreases with added food

Page 34: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Altered N:P ratios suggest P limitation under ambient conditions

P limitation (Koerselman & Meuleman 1996, Olde Venternik et al. in press)

Ambient

Page 35: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Food additions do not alter growth and morphology

Increasing prey

Page 36: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Anthropogenic N additions alter growth and morphology

Increasing N

Page 37: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Contrasting effects of anthropogenic and natural sources of N

Anthropogenic NAltered N:P ratiosMorphological shiftReduction in prey uptake

Prey NUptake, storage of N & PNo morphological shiftsContinued prey uptake

Page 38: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Contrasting effects of anthropogenic and natural sources of N

Anthropogenic NAltered N:P ratiosMorphological shiftReduction in prey uptake

Prey NUptake, storage of N & PNo morphological shiftsContinued prey uptake

Although Sarracenia has evolved adaptations for low N environments, chronic N deposition may have caused populations to be currently limited by P, not N.

Page 39: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Effects of N Deposition on Carnivorous Plants

• Life History

• Effects on Individuals

• Effects on Populations

• Effects on Communities

• The Role of Ecologists

Page 40: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.
Page 41: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.
Page 42: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Study Sites

Page 43: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.
Page 44: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.
Page 45: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Demography survey

• 100 adult, juvenile plants tagged at each site

• Plants censused and measured each year

• Seed plantings to estimate recruitment functions

Page 46: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.
Page 47: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.
Page 48: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.
Page 49: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Recruits Juveniles Adults Flowering Adults

Sarracenia matrix model

Page 50: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Recruits Juveniles Adults Flowering Adults

Hawley Bog Transitions

0.10

4.00

0.04

0.09

0.18

0.83

0.95 0.70 0.17

Page 51: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Recruits Juveniles Adults Flowering Adults

Molly Bog Transitions

0.10

4.00

0.13

0.17

0.10

0.66

0.85 0.71 0.31

Page 52: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Matrix Transition Model(stationary)

nt+1 = Ant

Population vector at time (t + 1)

Transition matrixPopulation vector at time (t)

Page 53: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Population Projections

Site r individuals/individual•year Doubling Time

Hawley Bog 0.00456 152 y

Molly Bog 0.00554 125 y

Page 54: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Deterministic Model: Results

• Growth, survivorship, and reproduction are closely balanced in both sites

• Doubling times > 100 y

• Juvenile, adult persistence contribute most to population growth rate

• Sexual reproduction, recruitment relatively unimportant

Page 55: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

How do N and P concentrations affect population growth of

Sarracenia?

Page 56: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.
Page 57: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Nutrient Addition Experiment

• 10 juveniles, 10 adults/treatment

• Nutrients added to leaves twice/month

• Nutrient concentrations bracket observed field values

• Nutrient treatments maintained 1998, 1999

• “Press” experiment

Page 58: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.
Page 59: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Nutrient Treatments

• Distilled H20

• Micronutrients• Low N (0.1 mg/L)• High N (1.0 mg/L)• Low P (0.025 mg/L)• High P (0.25 mg/L)

• N:P(1) Low N + Low P• N:P(2) Low N + High P• N:P(3) High N + Low P

Nutrient Source:

Micronutrients: Hoaglands

N: NH4Cl

P: NaH2PO4

Page 60: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Effects of N additions

• Increased production of phyllodia

• Increased probability of flowering

Page 61: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Effects of N additions

• Increased production of phyllodia

• Increased probability of flowering

• Decreased juvenile survivorship

Page 62: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Population Growth Rate(Deterministic)

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

r

Distilled Micros Low N

High N Low P High P

NP (2) NP (1) NP (3)

LLM

H

H

Page 63: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Effects of Nitrogen on Demography: Results

• Population growth rates respond to different N and P regimes

• Population growth rate decreases in response to increasing N

• Population growth rate decreases in responses to increasing N:P

Page 64: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Modeling Long-term Environmental Change

Observed N Deposition

Long-termForecast

N(t)

Transition Matrix (t)

PopulationStructure (t)

Time Series Modeling

Transition Function

Population Time SeriesExtinction RiskTime to Extinction

MatrixMultiplication

Page 65: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Modeling Long-term Environmental Change

Observed N Deposition

Long-termForecast

N(t)

Transition Matrix (t)

PopulationStructure (t)

Time Series Modeling

Transition Function

Population Time SeriesExtinction RiskTime to Extinction

MatrixMultiplication

Page 66: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

N monitoring

• National Atmospheric Deposition Program

• NH4, NO3 measured as mg/l/yr

• Annual data 1984-1998

• Monitoring sitesShelburne, VTQuabbin, MA

Page 67: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

Quabbin, MA Shelburne, VT

NH4

N03

Page 68: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

Quabbin, MA Shelburne, VT

NH4

N03

Page 69: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Regression Models

Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)

Nt = a + bt + e

First-order auto-regressive (AR-1)

Nt = a +bNt-1 + e

Page 70: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Quabbin (AR-1)

0.01

0.1

1

10

1 10 19 28 37 46

Year

N (m

g/l/y

r) b = 0.947

b = 1.000

b = 1.053

Quabbin (OLS)

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.7

1 10 19 28 37 46

Year

N (m

g/l/y

) b = -0.004

b = 0.000

b = 0.004

Shelburne (AR-1)

0.01

0.1

1

10

1 10 19 28 37 46

Year

N (m

g/l/y

)

b = 0.978

b = 1.000

b = 1.022

Shelburne (OLS)

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1 10 19 28 37 46

Year

N (m

g/l/y

) b = -0.001

b = 0.000

b = 0.001

Page 71: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Modeling Long-term Environmental Change

Observed N Deposition

Long-termForecast

N(t)

Transition Matrix (t)

PopulationStructure (t)

Time Series Modeling

Transition Function

Population Time SeriesExtinction RiskTime to Extinction

MatrixMultiplication

Page 72: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2

Log10 [N]

Ad

ult

s →

Ad

ult

s

ExtrapolatedObserved

Modeling Demographic Transitions as a Function of Nitrogen

Page 73: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Modeling Long-term Environmental Change

Observed N Deposition

Long-termForecast

N(t)

Transition Matrix (t)

PopulationStructure (t)

Time Series Modeling

Transition Function

Population Time SeriesExtinction RiskTime to Extinction

MatrixMultiplication

Page 74: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Matrix Transition Model(changing environment)

nt+1 = Atnt

Population vector at time (t + 1)

Sequentially changing transition matrix at time (t)

Population vector at time (t)

Page 75: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Estimated population size at Hawley bog

Stage Number of individuals

Recruits 1500

Juveniles 23,500

Non-flowering Adults 1400

Flowering Adults 500

Page 76: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Quabbin Exponential Forecast Models (AR-1)

Scenario Annual % Change

P (ext) at 100 y

Time to ext (p = 0.95)

Best case -4.7% 0.00 > 10,000 y

No change 0.0% 0.038 650 y

Small increase

1% 0.378 290 y

Worst case 4.7% 0.996 70 y

Page 77: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Shelburne Exponential Forecast Models (AR-1)

Scenario Annual % Change

P (ext) at 100 y

Time to ext (p = 0.95)

Best case -2.2% 0.158 > 10,000 y

No change 0.0% 0.510 230 y

Small increase

1.0% 0.694 200 y

Worst case 2.2% 0.838 140 y

Page 78: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Shelburne Nitrogen Forecast Model

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1 10 19 28 37 46

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

Siz

e

AR

OLS

Page 79: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Forecasting Models for Nitrogen Deposition: Results

• Increasing or stationary models of Nitrogen deposition drive Sarracenia populations to extinction

• Extinction risk declines with reduced nitrogen

• Correlated nitrogen series can induce cycles and complex population dynamics

Page 80: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Effects of N Deposition on Carnivorous Plants

• Life History

• Effects on Individuals

• Effects on Populations

• Effects on Communities

• The Role of Ecologists

Page 81: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Sarracenia Nutrient Feedback Loop

PitcherNutrient

Pool [N,P]

InquilineCommunity

ArthropodPrey

PlantGrowth

AtmosphericDeposition

Page 82: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Sarracenia Nutrient Feedback Loop

PitcherNutrient

Pool [N,P]

InquilineCommunity

ArthropodPrey

PlantGrowth

AtmosphericDeposition

Page 83: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Sarracenia Nutrient Feedback Loop

PitcherNutrient

Pool [N,P]

InquilineCommunity

ArthropodPrey

PlantGrowth

AtmosphericDeposition

Page 84: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Sarracenia Nutrient Feedback Loop

PitcherNutrient

Pool [N,P]

InquilineCommunity

ArthropodPrey

PlantGrowth

AtmosphericDeposition

Page 85: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Four-level Multi-Factorial Experiment

• Atmospheric N (8 levels)

• Prey supplement (yes,no)

• Top predator removal (yes,no)

Page 86: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Four-level Multi-Factorial Experiment

• Atmospheric N (8 levels)

• Prey supplement (yes,no)

• Top predator removal (yes,no)

• Nutrient exchange with plant(unmanipulated, isolated, control)

Page 87: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Quantifying Trophic Structure• Food web saturation is our response variable. Each taxon in the food web is • given a binary value representing its presence (1xxxx) or absence (0xxxx):

• Taxon Binary value Decimal value• Metriocnemus 1 1• Habrotrocha 10 2• Sarraceniopus 100 4• Wyeomyia 1000 8• Fletcherimyia 10000 16

• The saturation of the food web in a given pitcher is the sum of the equivalent• decimal values of each taxon present. Food webs with higher saturation values have • both more trophic levels present and more trophic links present. There are 32 possible • food webs that can be assembled with these 5 taxa; the decimal value for each food • web ranges from 0 – 31, with increasing numbers indicating more saturated food webs.

Page 88: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Nutrient exchange with the plant and top predators affect food web structure

Page 89: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Sarracenia Nutrient Feedback Loop

PitcherNutrient

Pool [N,P]

InquilineCommunity

ArthropodPrey

PlantGrowth

AtmosphericDeposition

Page 90: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Inquilines → Nutrients

• Manipulate [N], [P] in leaves

• Orthogonal “regression” design

• Establish initial [] in a “pulse” experiment

Page 91: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Response Surface Experimenal Design

[N]0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

[P]

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Page 92: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Null Hypothesis

[N]0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

[P]

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Page 93: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Community Regulation of Nutrients

[N]0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

[P]

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Page 94: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.
Page 95: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Sarracenia Nutrient Feedback Loop

PitcherNutrient

Pool [N,P]

InquilineCommunity

ArthropodPrey

PlantGrowth

AtmosphericDeposition

Page 96: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Nutrients ↔ Inquilines

),,(

),,(

tNIgdt

dI

tINfdt

dN

Page 97: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.
Page 98: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.
Page 99: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Effects of N Deposition on Carnivorous Plants

• Life History

• Effects on Individuals

• Effects on Populations

• Effects on Communities

• The Role of Ecologists

Page 100: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

0

50

100

150

200

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

Ter

agra

ms

of

Nit

rog

en

Fertilizer NOx

Total anthropogenic N fixed

Natural range

Page 101: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Ecology ≠

Environmental Science

Page 102: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Reasons for Studying Ecology

Page 103: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Reasons for Studying Ecology

• Natural History

Page 104: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.
Page 105: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Reasons for Studying Ecology

• Natural History

• Field Studies & Experiments

Page 106: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.
Page 107: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Reasons for Studying Ecology

• Natural History

• Field Studies & Experiments

• Statistics & Data Analysis

Page 108: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Population Growth Rate(Deterministic)

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

r

Distilled Micros Low N

High N Low P High P

NP (2) NP (1) NP (3)

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

Page 109: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Reasons for Studying Ecology

• Natural History

• Field Studies & Experiments

• Statistics & Data Analysis

• Modeling

Page 110: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

),,(

),,(

tNIgdt

dI

tINfdt

dN

PitcherNutrient

Pool [N,P]

InquilineCommunity

ArthropodPrey

PlantGrowth

AtmosphericDeposition

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1 10 19 28 37 46

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

Siz

e

AR

OLS

Page 111: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Reasons for Studying Ecology

• Natural History

• Field Studies & Experiments

• Statistics & Data Analysis

• Modeling

• Collaboration

Page 112: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Aaron M. Ellison

Harvard Forest

Page 113: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Conclusions• Anthropogenic deposition of N is a major ecological

challenge

Page 114: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Conclusions• Anthropogenic deposition of N is a major ecological

challenge• Carnivorous plants in ombrotrophic bogs are a model

system

Page 115: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Conclusions• Anthropogenic deposition of N is a major ecological

challenge• Carnivorous plants in ombrotrophic bogs are a model

system• Individual response

plants alter morphology and growth in response to N:P ratios

Page 116: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Conclusions• Anthropogenic deposition of N is a major ecological

challenge• Carnivorous plants in ombrotrophic bogs are a model

system• Individual response

plants alter morphology and growth in response to N:P ratios

• Population response N and P environments affect population growth rate

Page 117: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.

Conclusions• Anthropogenic deposition of N is a major ecological

challenge• Carnivorous plants in ombrotrophic bogs are a model

system• Individual response

plants alter morphology and growth in response to N:P ratios

• Population response N and P environments affect population growth rate

• Community response Further study of nutrient ↔ inquiline feedback loop

Page 118: The Ecological Impacts Of Nitrogen Deposition: Insights From The Carnivorous Pitcher Plant Sarracenia purpurea Nicholas J. Gotelli Department of Biology.