Western Interstate Commission For Higher Education ALASKA • ARIZONA • CALIFORNIA • COLORADO • HAWAI‘I • IDAHO • MONTANA • NEVADA • NEW MEXICO • NORTH DAKOTA OREGON • SOUTH DAKOTA • UTAH • WASHINGTON • WYOMING • U.S. PACIFIC TERRITORIES & FREELY ASSOCIATED STATES The Advent of a New Millennium in Idaho Higher Education. Presentation to: Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee Idaho Legislature David A Longanecker, president, WICHE Boise, Idaho January 26, 2016
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The Advent of a New Millennium in Idaho Higher Education.Presentation to: Joint Finance -Appropriations Committee Idaho Legislature David A Longanecker, president, WICHE Boise, Idaho
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Western Interstate Commission For Higher Education
ALASKA • ARIZONA • CALIFORNIA • COLORADO • HAWAI‘ I • IDAHO • MONTANA • NEVADA • NEW MEXICO • NORTH DAKOTA OREGON • SOUTH DAKOTA • UTAH • WASHINGTON • WYOMING • U.S. PACIFIC TERRITORIES & FREELY ASSOCIATED STATES
The Advent of a New Millennium in Idaho Higher Education. Presentation to: Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee Idaho Legislature
David A Longanecker, president, WICHE Boise, Idaho January 26, 2016
Measuring Up 2002: Where Idaho Stood
Preparation: D+ Participation: D Affordability: B- Completion: C Benefits: C Learning: Incomplete
Living In These Interesting Times -- Quite A Ride
The times they are a changing The way we provide education is changing Who we educate is changing The way we assess the quality of our enterprise is
changing The way we finance the enterprise is changing
The Way We Provide Education Is Changing
Enrollment 2000 2014 Delta U.S. Undergrad 13,142,996 17,278,939 31%
Public 80% 77% 19%
Private 17% 16% 25%
For Profit 3% 7% 217%
WICHE 3,585,697 4,690,587 31%
Public 88% 80% 19%
Private 8% 9% 44%
For Profit 4% 11% 256%
The Way We Provide Education Is Changing
Enrollment 2000 2014 Delta U.S. Undergrad 13,142,996 17,278,939 31%
Public 80% 77% 19%
Private 17% 16% 25%
For Profit 3% 7% 217%
WICHE 3,585,697 4,690,587 31%
Public 88% 80% 19%
Private 8% 9% 44%
For Profit 4% 11% 256%
The Way We Provide Education Is Changing
Enrollment 2000 2014 Delta U.S. Undergrad 13,142,996 17,278,939 31%
Public 80% 77% 19%
Private 17% 16% 25%
For Profit 3% 7% 217%
WICHE 3,585,697 4,690,587 31%
Public 88% 80% 19%
Private 8% 9% 44%
For Profit 4% 11% 256%
The Way We Provide Education Is Changing
Enrollment 2000 2014 Delta U.S. Undergrad 13,142,996 17,278,939 31%
Public 80% 77% 19%
Private 17% 16% 25%
For Profit 3% 7% 217%
WICHE 3,585,697 4,690,587 31%
Public 88% 80% 19%
Private 8% 9% 44%
For Profit 4% 11% 256%
Idaho 57,968 110,962 91%
Public 81% 63% 48%
Private 18% 36% 264%
For Profit 1% 1% 117%
The Way We Provide Education Is Changing: On-line learning
How Were We Providing Higher Education in 2000
Share of students participating in On-line Education (2002) At least one online course: 10% Full time in Online Courses: 2%
How Are We Providing Higher Education Today Share of students participating in On-line Education (2013) At least one online course: 27% Full time in Online Courses: 13%
The Way We Provide Education Is Changing: Competency Based Learning
How Were We Providing Higher Education in 2000 The Novelty of Competency Based Institutions Two “Known” Entities:
– WGU (1,200 students) – Alverno College (2,500 students)
How Are We Providing Higher Education Today The Competency Wave WGU having grown to 48,000 students 23 members of the Competency-Based Education Network The Biggies: Alverno, Brandman, Capella, College for America (Southern New
Hampshire), Community Colleges of Spokane, Northern Arizona University, University of Wisconsin, Western Governors University
Combined enrollments: more than 100,000 in whole; millions in part Prior Learning Assessment (PLA): Becoming Ubiquitous (except where it is not)
The Way We Provide Education Is Changing The innovation wave
New providers of degrees
The expansion of the for-profit sector The expansion of most institutions on-line
New providers of courses & services Courses only – MOOCS, Straighter Line, DreamDegree, Pearsons,
Hobsons, etc. Support services only – Insidetrack, Kahn Academy, Smarthinking,
etc. Tweener providers -- Boot Camps, App Academy An Abundance of credentials – degrees, certificates, badges, etc. The Question -- Chaos or Creative Engagement and Progress
Who We Educate Is Changing
Idaho
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black, non-Hispanic Hispanic White, non-Hispanic
Who we educate is changing
Changes in the non-traditional aged population are significant
Who we educate is changing – Adult Students
25-44 Year Old 2001
25-44 Year Old 2013
Idaho
WICHE
US
Idaho
WICHE
US
25-34 Year Old Undergraduate Participation Rate
3.5% 4.7% 3.7% 6.0% 5.0% 3.8%
NCHEMS/Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-10 American Community Survey
Difference in College Attainment Between Whites and Minorities (Blacks, Hispanics, Native Americans) (2008-10)
35.1
34
.5
33.7
32
.1
29.5
29
.5
29.3
29
.0
28.8
28
.5
28.4
27
.6
26.8
26
.3
26.1
25
.8
25.6
25
.4
25.3
25
.3
24.0
23
.2
23.1
22
.6
22.3
22
.3
22.2
21
.7
21.5
21
.3
21.1
20
.9
20.0
19
.5
19.3
16
.9
16.8
16
.3
15.7
15
.5
15.2
15
.0
14.9
14
.8
13.5
13
.4
13.0
12
.0
8.8
8.5
8.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
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rado
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ebra
ska
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orni
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ticut
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inne
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ode
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uth
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t
slide 15
Average Annual Education Attainment of Idaho Residents Aged 25-44, White and Underrepresented Minorities, 2011-13
5.4
25.9 28.5
10.7
21.6
7.8
35.7
30.1
19.2
5.5 7.1
2.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Less than High School
High School Graduates
Some College, No Degree
Just an Associate
Degree
Just a Bachelor's
Degree
Graduate or Professional
Degree
White URM
Note: Underrepresented Minorities = Black, Hispanic, Native American/Alaska Native) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011-13 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata
Sample (PUMS) File.
Who we educate is changing
Why this is a huge issue. An issue of equity and social justice An economic imperative -- the big change since
2000
New Economy 2015 Index (Source: Kauffman Foundation, 2015)
Who we educate is changing
Looking down College/Postsecondary in high schools (AP, dual &
concurrent enrolment, IB, CTE, early college schools) Improving Preparation Common Core/Higher Ed for Higher Standards Reinventing Remedial – The High School as partner
Looking up Adult College Completion
Who we educate is changing
Changes in the traditional aged population are significant – Enrollment in Idaho Racial Identity 2003 2013
African American 1% 1%
American Indian/Alaska Native 1% 1%
Asian/Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander 2% 2%
Hispanic 3% 8%
White (Non-Hispanic) 89% 73%
Two or More Races -- 3%
Unidentified/Foreign 4% 12%
The way we assess the quality of our enterprise is changing
Completion is the name of the game So, How are we doing? On attainment
U.S. States % OECD Country Korea (65.7)
60 Japan
58 Canada
56 Massachusetts
North Dakota 54
Minnesota 52 New York
50 Luxembourg New Jersey Ireland
Connecticut 48 United Kingdom Nebraska, Illinois, Virginia New Zealand, Australia
Pennsylvania, Colorado, Maryland, Rhode Island, Iowa 46 Vermont, South Dakota, Wisconsin Norway
Kansas, New Hampshire 44 Israel, UNITED STATES Hawaii, Montana Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium, France
Delaware, Michigan, Maine, California, North Carolina, Oregon 40 Denmark, Estonia, Finland Florida Spain
38 Iceland Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia, Indiana Slovenia, Greece
Kentucky 36
Texas, Idaho, Arizona West Virginia 34
Alabama, Oklahoma, Alaska, New Mexico Louisiana 32
Arkansas, Mississippi Nevada 30 Hungary
Germany 28 Portugal, Czech Republic
Slovakia 26
24 Mexico Austria
22 Chile, Italy Turkey
20
Difference in College Attainment between Young Adults (25-34) and Older Adults (45-64), 2011
11.1
9.
7 9.
3 9.
2 8.
9 8.
4 7.
2 7.
2 6.
6 6.
4 6.
0 5.
9 5.
6 5.
5 5.
5 5.
4 4.
2 4.
0 3.
9 3.
8 3.
4 3.
3 3.
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wa
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uth
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ork
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ois
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Miss
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Wes
t Virg
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hio
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ucky
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rsey
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Nat
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rmon
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and
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gia
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orid
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Conn
ectic
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M
aine
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Colo
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Id
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Haw
aii
Nev
ada
New
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ico
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey
slide 23
The way we assess the quality of our enterprise is changing
Completion is the name of the game So, How are you doing? On Completions
The Way We Assess the Quality of Our Enterprise Is Changing
Completions 2001 2014 Delta US Assoc &Bach Degrees
1,799,855 2,869,639 59%
Public 70% 69% 57%
Private 25% 21% 32%
For Profit 5% 10% 228%
WICHE 410,737 715,638 74%
Public 77% 70% 58%
Private 16% 12% 30%
For Profit 7% 18% 346%
Idaho 9,751 16,118 65%
Public 59% 61% 69%
Private 38% 36% 56%
For Profit 3% 3% 105%
The Way We Assess the Quality of Our Enterprise Is Changing
Completions 2001 2014 Delta US Assoc &Bach Degrees
1,799,855 2,869,639 59%
Public 70% 69% 57%
Private 25% 21% 32%
For Profit 5% 10% 228%
WICHE 410,737 715,638 74%
Public 77% 70% 58%
Private 16% 12% 30%
For Profit 7% 18% 346%
Idaho 9,751 16,118 65%
Public 59% 61% 69%
Private 38% 36% 56%
For Profit 3% 3% 105%
The Way We Assess the Quality of Our Enterprise Is Changing
Completions 2001 2014 Delta US Assoc &Bach Degrees
1,799,855 2,869,639 59%
Public 70% 69% 57%
Private 25% 21% 32%
For Profit 5% 10% 228%
WICHE 410,737 715,638 74%
Public 77% 70% 58%
Private 16% 12% 30%
For Profit 7% 18% 346%
Idaho 9,751 16,118 65%
Public 59% 61% 69%
Private 38% 36% 56%
For Profit 3% 3% 105%
The Way We Assess the Quality of Our Enterprise Is Changing
Completions 2001 2014 Delta US Assoc &Bach Degrees
1,799,855 2,869,639 59%
Public 70% 69% 57%
Private 25% 21% 32%
For Profit 5% 10% 228%
WICHE 410,737 715,638 74%
Public 77% 70% 58%
Private 16% 12% 30%
For Profit 7% 18% 346%
Idaho 9,751 16,118 65%
Public 59% 61% 69%
Private 38% 36% 56%
For Profit 3% 3% 105%
The way we assess the quality of our enterprise is changing
Completion is the name of the game Competency is the new coin of the realm.
Competency Assessment: for the Student Transfer and Articulation - Trusting the community (Passport) Demonstrated college level learning outside the Academy
Prior Leaning Assessment – PLA CLEP, testing out, etc.
Competency Assessment: for the Institution (Educational Improvement & Credibility) Predictive Analytics/MLDE Degree Qualifications Profiles Tuning
Competency Based Education As a New Delivery Model Direct Assessment Institutions CBE Straight Up
The way we assess the quality of our enterprise is changing
Completion is the name of the game Competency is the new coin of the realm. Assessment of student learning finally has legs
Student Learning – the new name of the game
Why now Readiness has “evolved” “Evidence based practice” has caught on in public policy Analytics can support evidence based practice (CLA, CAAP, ETS
Whopping big change – moving to external validity Still sorting out
Teacher’s role Institution’s role Governing board’s role Government’s role
Productivity as part of the Quality Dimension
How Does Idaho Higher Education Measure Up
Credential & Degrees Awarded Per $100,000 of Education & Related Expenditures – Total: Public Colleges & Universities
U.S.= $54,348/Degree ID = $47,393/Degree
Credential & Degrees Awarded Per $100,000 of Education & Related Expenditures – Public Research Universities
U.S. = $54,945/Degree ID= $47,393/Degree
Credential & Degrees Awarded Per $100,000 of Education & Related Expenditures – Public Bachelor’s & Master’s Colleges & Universities
U.S. = $45,455/Degree ID = $43,103/Degree
Credential & Degrees Awarded Per $100,000 of Education & Related Expenditures – Public Two-Year Institutions
U.S. = $63,291/Degree ID = $ 60,606/Degree
National Student Clearinghouse Information on Student Completion in Six Years
Completion Not Enrolled or Completed
Idaho US Idaho US
Public Universities 44% 63% 32% 23%
Community/2 yr Colleges 38% 39% 47% 43%
The Way We Finance The Enterprise Is Changing
How Does Idaho Compare
The Way We Finance The Enterprise Is Changing
$8,
615
$8,
520
$8,
301
$7,
842
$7,
572
$7,
670
$7,
920
$8,
006
$8,
305
$8,
577
$8,
799
$8,
717
$8,
964
$8,
638
$7,
993
$7,
457
$7,
401
$7,
764
$7,
958
$8,
081
$7,
553
$7,
013
$6,
737
$6,
122
$6,
215
$6,
552
$2,
792
$2,
840
$2,
937
$3,
175
$3,
377
$3,
494
$3,
587
$3,
709
$3,
762
$3,
787
$3,
789
$3,
606
$3,
736
$3,
750
$3,
834
$4,
034
$4,
193
$4,
475
$4,
547
$4,
482
$4,
560
$4,
769
$4,
962
$5,
348
$5,
624
$5,
777
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Dol
lars
per
FTE
Publ
ic F
TE E
nrol
lmen
t (M
illio
ns)
Net Tuition Revenue per FTE (constant $) Educational Appropriations per FTE (constant $) Public FTE Enrollment
Note: Constant 2014 dollars adjusted by SHEEO Higher Education Cost Adjustment. Educational Appropriations include ARRA funds. (HECA)
The Way We Finance The Enterprise Is Changing
$10
,406
$10
,106
$10
,534
$9,
914
$9,
288
$9,
444
$9,
597
$9,
603
$9,
468
$9,
829
$10
,231
$10
,166
$10
,545
$10
,869
$9,
422
$8,
765
$8,
785
$8,
904
$9,
186
$9,
664
$9,
431
$7,
778
$6,
638
$5,
640
$6,
132
$6,
434
$1,
604
$1,
524
$1,
642
$1,
721
$1,
858
$2,
061
$2,
055
$2,
081
$2,
056
$2,
400
$2,
336
$2,
446
$2,
462
$1,
700
$2,
051
$2,
226
$2,
441
$2,
535
$2,
675
$2,
325
$2,
485
$2,
781
$3,
027
$3,
304
$3,
682
$3,
914
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Dol
lars
per
FTE
Publ
ic F
TE E
nrol
lmen
t (T
hous
ands
)
Public FTE Enrollment, Educational Appropriations and Total Educational Revenue per FTE, Idaho -- Fiscal 1989-2014
Net Tuition Revenue per FTE (constant $) Educational Appropriations per FTE (constant $) Public FTE Enrollment
Note: Constant 2014 dollars adjusted by SHEEO Higher Education Cost Adjustment (HECA). Educational Appropriations include ARRA funds. Source: SHEEO
The Importance of These Statistics To Idaho Today and Tomorrow
Funding story is a mixed bag with respect to higher education State Funding is average:
@ $6,434, it is $118 (2%) below the national average
State Tax Effort: 7.2% Effective Tax Rate Slightly below national 7.6%
State Share of Tax Effort to Higher Education: 7.3% Well above the national average of 5.8% 4th highest in the WICHE region (trailing only New
Mexico, Wyoming, and Utah)
The Importance of These Statistics To Idaho Today and Tomorrow
But Overall Funding is another story: @ $10,348, it is $$1,981 (16%) below the national average
How Is That Possible: – Tuition is comparatively high or low, depending:
» @ $3,749 for 2 year institutions • It is 7% above the WICHE average • And 9% above the National average
» @ $6,817 for 4 year institutions • It is 13% below the WICHE average • And 28% below the National average
– Financial Aid: » Modest in total: $5 million in 2013-14 » Very Modest for needy students: $1.4 million in 2013-14 (4th lowest in the country
at that time)
Net effect: Share of income required has increased appreciable over last decade. From 2.7% to 6.5% in community colleges From 6.9% to 12.% in universities
The Way We Finance The Enterprise Is Changing
Why a new normal & not return to the old normal Can’t afford the old normal
Hyper-inflationary model is unsustainable (unaffordable)
What the new normal looks like Performance funding is the wave in most states – not Idaho But not the only game in town
Affordability issues driving focus on costs & price Tuition Policy & Financial Aid sharing the stage Generally lacking true integration of finance policies –
Appropriations, Tuition Policy, and Financial Aid in Sync Speaks to the wisdom of the Governor’s Request
Summing it all up
The times they are a changing The way we provide education is changing Who we educate is changing The way we assess the quality of our enterprise is
changing The way we finance the enterprise is changing
Summing it all up
What this has wrought for Idaho Preparation: from D+ to C Participation: from D to
C- for traditional students B for older students
Affordability: from B- to C
Completion: from C to D
Quality/Learning: from Incomplete to B+ on productivity Incomplete on student learning outcomes
Summing it all up Where to from here for Idaho
If you’re comfortable with a C+ average, stay the course
If you want something more, change is the logical
option Albert Einstein’s
Alleged Definition of Insanity “Doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a
different result ”
I encourage sanity in Idaho higher education public policy