Thayer ASEAN, China and the South China Sea

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, 

na 

an 

e 

South China Sea

Professor Carl Thayer

Geor e Mason Universit 

March 22, 2011

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Background: 

e 

ou 

China Sea

•Semi‐

•9 littoral 

states

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‐ 

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•  

archipelagoes

• Paracel Islands

•  

• Islands in 

international law

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•  

China make 

•China’s 

based on a 

produced by 

Government 

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Overla in 

Territorial 

Claims

Brunei

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The Philippines Claim

Kalayaan or Freedom Land

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Extended Continental Shelf  May 2009

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China’s 

Claims for 

Extended 

Continental 

Shelf 

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Spratly 

s an s 

•175 ‐ 200 

insular 

features: 

islets, rocks, 

shoals, 

, banks, sea 

mounts

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•  

• 1974 China seizes southern Paracels

• No C inese presence prior to 1988

– Chinese‐Vietnamese clash, China lodges forces on 

Jo nson Sout   Ree  

• 1992 China adopts Law on Territorial Waters

• Oil exploration and “scramble for the Spratlys”

•  

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Taiwan

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‐ 

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Paracel

•Amphitrite 

roup

•

1974 

China 

se zes 

Crescent 

roup

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Chinese Airstrip Woody Island, Paracel Isands

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China-Vietnam Naval Clash March 1988

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•   , 

another Declaration

•

2005‐

08 

Chinese 

Naval 

base 

on 

Hainan 

Island• 2007 China declares new Administrative 

Region over South China Sea

• 2008‐present increased tensions draws US 

di lomatic intervention

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China’s 

Law 

on 

Territorial 

Sea 

and 

the Contiguous Zone, Feb 2, 1992

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Claimants Features occupied Estimated troops

Vietnam 21‐22 900‐1,000

The Philippines 8‐9 600‐700

China 7‐10 900‐1 000

Malaysia 4‐5 230‐330

Taiwan 1 500‐600

Brunei 0 0

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• 1. EMPHASIZE the necessity to resolve all 

pertaining to the South China Sea by peaceful 

means, without resort to force;• 2. URGE all parties concerned to exercise 

restraint with the view to creating a positive 

climate for the eventual resolution of  all disputes

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Mala sia 

occupied 

Reef  

TerumbuLayang

Layang) in 

June 1983

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Truon 

Sa 

Vietnam

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China’s Occupation of Mischief Reef 1995

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Chinese Construction on Mischief  Reef 

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We call u on all  arties to refrain from takin   actions that 

destabilize the region and further threaten the peace and 

security of  the South China Sea. We specifically call for the 

developments in Mischief  Reef. 

We urge countries in the region to undertake cooperative 

activities which increase trust and confidence and promote 

stability in the area. 

Asia to address the issue in various fora, including the 

Indonesia‐sponsored Workshop Series on Managing Potential 

Conflicts in the South China Sea.

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ASEAN Declaration on 

Conduct of  Parties

• Declaration on Conduct of  Parties in the South 

China Sea November 2002

• Non‐binding

• Geo ra hic area not defined

• Confidence building measure proposed

• Joint Working Group to Implement DOC

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Tensions in US‐China Relations

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•March‐April 2010 

as   ea an   or  

Sea Fleets conduct 

beyond First Island 

Chain

•Vietnamese 

fishing 

craft 

‘swarm’ around a 

Chinese fishery 

•PLAN warships 

intervene

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• ’  

• China’s rise will challenge U.S. primacy–  n   access area  en a   n  es ern  ac c

•

South 

China 

Sea 

focal 

point–  ASEAN‐China, role for US?

• Will U.S. remain engaged or retreat?

• New security architecture – East Asia 

Summit