Thayer South China Sea: ASEAN Between Rising China and Status Quo America

8/4/2019 Thayer South China Sea: ASEAN Between Rising China and Status Quo America

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Managing Conflict in the South China 

Sea: 

ASEAN 

Between 

a 

Rising 

C ina 

and Status Quo America

Carlyle A. Thayer

Uppsala Forum on Peace, Democracy and 

ust ce an   ast  s a  rogramUniversity of  Uppsala 

, 

September 

12, 

2011

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• Conflicting sovereignty claims

 –  na an   energy secur ty

•China’s

rise 

and 

challenge 

to 

U.S. 

primacy –  Secure Sea Lanes of  Communication (SLOC)

 –  Control beyond second island chain

• ASEAN’s assertion of  centrality and regional 

autonomy

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South 

China 

Seaclaimants:

•China

•

Taiwan•Vietnam

•The Philippines

•Ma aysia•Brunei

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UN Commission on Limits of  Continental Shelf   – May 13, 2009

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China’s 9‐dash 

ne‐

s ape 

ma   la in  

claim 

to 

over 

o   t e 

Sea

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Binh Minh 02

Incident

Reed Bank

Incident

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•  

contains 

 –  10 times more than its gas reserves

• na  ooses a ou   m on  ons o   o  

annually or about 40% of  its total offshore 

pro uc on 

ue 

o 

e 

ac v es 

o 

coun r es 

n 

the South China Sea. 

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•  

800 deep‐water wells in the East Sea, Yellow 

producing 500 million tons of  oil by 2020.

reserves by 40% in next two decades

• etnam s  omest c gas  eman   w   tr p e  y 

2025 (World Bank)

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China’s Rise and 

Challenge to U.S. Primacy

•

China’s 

economy 

will 

overtake 

the 

U.S.• Military modernization

 –  Submarine fleet

 –  Anti‐carrier ballistic missile

• Anti‐access/area denial

• Yulin Naval Base, Hainan Island

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First 

and 

Second 

Island 

Chains

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Base, Sanya 

ug  o 

28 

Feb 

08

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Yulin Naval Base

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Secure 

Sea Lanes of  Communication

•

100,000 

ships 

transit 

Straits 

of  

Malacca 

annually

• >25% of  world’s traded goods pass through 

South China Sea

• 25% of  all oil shipments carried by sea pass 

.  

mission cubic metres per day)

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SLOC Strategic Overview

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a nan 

Island

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China’s ‘String of  Pearls’

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ASEAN’s Assertion of  Centrality and 

Regional Autonomy

• Zone of  Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (1971)

(1976)

• Declaration on Conduct of  Parties in the South 

China Sea (2002)

• ASEAN Regional Forum

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ASEAN’s Assertion of  Centrality and 

Regional Autonomy

ASEAN‐centric multilateralism

•

East Asia Summit expansion• ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM)

• ADMM Plus

• Pursuit of Code of Conduct

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Derailing China’s ‘Peaceful 

Development’?

•

Regional 

“arms 

dynamic”•  

 – Kilo submarines, Gepard frigates

 –  n ‐s p m ss es

• Force modernisation by the Philippines

• U.S. military activities in China’s EEZs

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Derailing China’s ‘Peaceful 

Development’?•  

Sea policy‘   –  

second lesson’

• Lea ers ip transition at next congress o   t e 

Chinese Communist Party

• Build up of  civilian maritime  jurisdiction 

enforcement fleet

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Managing Conflict in the South China 

and Status Quo America

  . 

Uppsala Forum on Peace, Democracy and 

Justice and East Asia Program

University of  Uppsala 

Uppsala, Sweden

ep em er  ,