-
8/8/2019 Thayer Recent Developments in the South China Sea Outline
1/14
SouthChina
Sea
ProfessorCarlThayer
School of Humanities & Social Sciences
AustralianDefence ForceAcademy
-
8/8/2019 Thayer Recent Developments in the South China Sea Outline
2/14
.
Implications
2. ASEANandtheSouthChinaSea
ChinaSea
. a uso
e
ec ara onon
on uc
ofPartiesintheSouthChinaSea(DOC)
-
8/8/2019 Thayer Recent Developments in the South China Sea Outline
3/14
.
.
2. PLANMaritimeExercises
3. USMilitaryReponsestoChinese
4. ShangrilaDialogue
5. Meetingof
Defence Ministers
(October)
-
8/8/2019 Thayer Recent Developments in the South China Sea Outline
4/14
meeting[in
China]
of
the
Strategic
and
conom c a ogue a eyv ew e
SouthChina
Sea
as
acore
interest,
IimmediatelyrespondedandsaidWe
dontagreewiththat.
SecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,quotedin
-
8/8/2019 Thayer Recent Developments in the South China Sea Outline
5/14
. ,
Eastand
South
Sea
Fleets
.
Fleet
in
response
to
US
ROK
exercise3. LateJu y argesto its in ,most
modernships,seniorcommanders
4. EarlyNovember
100
platforms
+
marines
-
8/8/2019 Thayer Recent Developments in the South China Sea Outline
6/14
-
8/8/2019 Thayer Recent Developments in the South China Sea Outline
7/14
US
China
Defence Ministers
-
8/8/2019 Thayer Recent Developments in the South China Sea Outline
8/14
1. 43rd ASEANMinisterial
Meeting
2. 17th ASEANRegionalForum
nd
.
4. ASEANDefence MinistersPlus
-
8/8/2019 Thayer Recent Developments in the South China Sea Outline
9/14
1. Chinasseizure
of
Vietnamese
fishing
2. Vietnamese
responses3. ChinasUnilateralFishingBan
-
8/8/2019 Thayer Recent Developments in the South China Sea Outline
10/14
Implementthe
DOC
th
CommentsbyASEANSecretaryGeneralSurin
Evaluationsofprogress
LiuJianchao,ChinasAmbassadortothePhilippines
HillaryClinton,USSecretaryofState
-
8/8/2019 Thayer Recent Developments in the South China Sea Outline
11/14
Conclusion
PositiveDevelopments
Grounds
for
cautious
optimism
on
DOC
international
oil
and
gas
companies USdownplaysanotherUSNSImpeccable
incident
UpturninChinaUSrelations
-
8/8/2019 Thayer Recent Developments in the South China Sea Outline
12/14
Conclusion
NegativeDevelopments
Chinaincreasing
capacity
to
enforce
sovere gn yc a ms
Yulin Naval
Base
construction
ContinuedlackofChinasdefencetrans arenc
AnxietyaboutdeclineofUSprimacy
-
8/8/2019 Thayer Recent Developments in the South China Sea Outline
13/14
Conclusion
NegativeDevelopments
Greatpower
rivalry
Chinas
fear
Chinese
warnings
to
Vietnam Regionaldefence selfhelpmeasures
andmilitar modernisation
-
8/8/2019 Thayer Recent Developments in the South China Sea Outline
14/14
ecen
eve opmen s
n
e
SouthChinaSea
ProfessorCarlThayer
nd
TheSouthChinaSea,cosponsord bytheDiplomatic
Association,HoChiMinhCity,Vietnam,November
, ,
