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anul pub pib isd rs ri di
1994 1 33.7 34.8 283 10.8 97.9 0
1995 1 38.6 38.9 295 9.4 94.3 0
1996 1 40.9 45.3 329 8.4 116.8 0
1997 1 43.5 54.9 354 9.3 151.4 0
1998 1 45.2 55.5 395 11.5 91.6 0
1999 1 49.4 60.3 428 10.6 54.3 0
2000 1 54.8 64.7 497 9.8 40.4 1
2001 1 64.6 72.1 515 8.8 34.6 1
2002 1 68.9 90.4 599 7.1 27.2 1
2003 1 70.3 100.4 621 6.6 21.3 1
2004 1 75.2 111.6 654 6.8 17.8 1
2005 1 78.4 130.7 668 7 10.5 1
2006 1 79.7 180.5 684 6.3 9.3 1
20071
82.5 200.7 702 6.5 8.6 1
2008 1 86.9 256.8 714 6.9 6.5 1
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics 2.160369
Multiple R 0.995483
R Square 0.990987
Adjusted R 0.987382
Standard 2.020268Observatio 15
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regressio 4 4487.761 1121.94 274.8855137 3.54126E-10
Residual 10 40.81482 4.081482
Total 14 4528.576
Coefficient andard Err t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept 18.63063 11.51068 1.618551 0.136613855 -7.016782681 44.27803
X Variable 0.036713 0.016329 2.248367 0.048313387 0.000330297 0.073097
X Variable 0.088972 0.014124 6.299301 8.91648E-05 0.057501205 0.120442X Variable -0.79534 0.581277 -1.36826 0.201186213 -2.090503245 0.49983
X Variable -0.0131 0.030889 -0.42406 0.680497523 -0.081922555 0.055725
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observatio Predicted Residuals
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1 35.2152 -1.5152 2.295823696
2 37.59401 1.005993 6.3564 1.012021143
3 41.35462 -0.45462 2.133394 0.206680704
4 42.76234 0.737658 1.421531 0.544139593
5 45.46576 -0.26576 1.006852 0.070629432
6 49.78243 -0.38243 0.013611 0.146252632
7 56.90134 -2.10134 2.954666 4.4156475698 59.64582 4.95418 49.78042 24.54389878
9 69.24029 -0.34029 28.03137 0.115794607
10 72.03974 -1.73974 1.958484 3.026711321
11 75.27377 -0.07377 2.77546 0.005442539
12 77.15716 1.242845 1.733484 1.544662857
13 80.98149 -1.28149 6.372241 1.64220439
14 83.17469 -0.67469 0.368205 0.45520207
15 86.01134 0.888656 2.44404 0.789709343
107.3502 40.81482068
dw 2.630175928
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.995677
R Square 0.991374
Adjusted R 0.986581
Standard E 2.083408
Observatio 15
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regressio 5 4489.511 897.9021 206.8618 5.26573E-09
Residual 9 39.0653 4.340589
Total 14 4528.576
Coefficient andard Err t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% ower 95,0
Intercept 18.09353 11.90054 1.520396 0.162734 -8.827381876 45.01444358 -8.82738
X Variable 0.041973 0.018767 2.23655 0.052136 -0.000480603 0.084427038 -0.00048X Variable 0.084297 0.016321 5.164955 0.000591 0.047376244 0.121217184 0.047376
X Variable -0.69801 0.618738 -1.12811 0.288446 -2.097689348 0.701675883 -2.09769
X Variable -0.0053 0.034139 -0.15531 0.880001 -0.082530221 0.071925654 -0.08253
X Variable 2.000917 3.151692 0.634871 0.541314 -5.128709776 9.13054452 -5.12871
-
-
-
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RESIDUAL OUTPUT
bservatio redicted Residuals
1 35.3526 -1.6526 2.731096
2 37.53255 1.067449 7.398681 1.139447
3 41.24597 -0.34597 1.997762 0.119698
4 42.94467 0.555331 0.812349 0.3083935 45.20748 -0.00748 0.316756 5.59E-05
6 49.01672 0.383276 0.15269 0.1469
7 57.6509 -2.8509 10.45992 8.127654
8 60.20761 4.392393 52.46536 19.29312
9 69.28249 -0.38249 22.7995 0.146298
10 71.93704 -1.63704 1.573887 2.679886
11 75.06788 0.132116 3.129898 0.017455
12 76.94883 1.451168 1.739899 2.105889
13 80.88281 -1.18281 6.937857 1.399046
14 83.11212 -0.61212 0.325687 0.374694
15 86.21031 0.689687 1.694709 0.475668
111.805 39.0653
dw 2.862002
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ower 95,0 pper 95,0%
-7.01678 44.27803
0.00033 0.073097
0.057501 0.120442-2.0905 0.49983
-0.08192 0.055725
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2.160369
pper 95,0%
45.01444
0.0844270.121217
0.701676
0.071926
9.130545
1
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
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-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
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15
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anul pub y pib x anul yt-ro *yt-1 x-ro*xt-1
94 33.70 34.80 94 10.31982 9.696724
95 38.60 38.90 95 8.50786 12.65611
96 40.90 45.30 96 9.277759 16.88539
97 43.60 54.90 97 8.611987 9.429314
98 45.20 55.50 98 11.46931 13.72581
99 49.40 60.30 99 13.34477 14.09777
0 54.80 64.70 0 18.61323 17.8054
1 64.60 72.10 1 14.68932 29.89551
2 68.90 90.40 2 12.48087 24.53862
3 70.30 100.40 3 16.20603 27.34687
4 75.20 111.60 4 15.29407 37.04811
5 78.40 130.70 5 13.90871 70.81988
6 79.70 180.50 6 15.61778 49.22898
782.50 200.70
7 17.6681 88.377668 86.90 256.80 8
SUMMARY OUTPUT ro 0.839175
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.883384
R Square 0.780367
Adjusted R 0.763473
Standard E 8.743626
Observatio 15
ANOVA
df SS MS F ignificance F
Regressio 1 3531.254 3531.254 46.18977 1.27E-05
Residual 13 993.863 76.451
Total 14 4525.117
Coefficient andard Err t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95% ower 95.0 pper 95.0
Intercept 36.81847 4.194799 8.777172 7.99E-07 27.75616 45.88079 27.75616 45.88079
X Variable 0.240667 0.035411 6.796306 1.27E-05 0.164165 0.317169 0.164165 0.317169
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
(et-et-1) 2 et^2
bservatio redicted Residuals
1 45.19369 -11.4937 132.1048
2 46.18042 -7.58042 15.31365 57.46277
3 47.72069 -6.82069 0.577192 46.5218
4 50.03109 -6.43109 0.151786 41.35895
5 50.17549 -4.97549 2.118771 24.75552
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SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.574816
R Square 0.330414
Adjusted R 0.274615
Standard 2.809191
Observatio 14
ANOVAdf SS MS F ignificance F
Regressio 1 46.72998 46.72998 5.921516 0.031535
Residual 12 94.69868 7.891557
Total 13 141.4287
Coefficient andard Err t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Intercept 10.9104 1.231686 8.858101 1.31E-06 8.226786 13.59401
X Variable 0.078908 0.032427 2.433417 0.031535 0.008256 0.149561
RESIDUAL OUTPUT(et-et-1) 2 et^2
Observatio redicted Residuals
1 11.67555 -1.35574 1.838022
2 11.90907 -3.40121 4.183972 11.56825
3 12.2428 -2.96504 0.190246 8.791465
4 11.65445 -3.04246 0.005994 9.256591
5 11.99348 -0.52417 6.341789 0.274758
6 12.02283 1.321942 3.408143 1.747531
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ower 95.0 pper 95.0%
8.226786 13.59401
0.008256 0.149561
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-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Graficul reziduurilor
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12 13 14 15
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anul pub pib isd ri
1994 33.7 34.8 283 97.9
1995 38.6 38.9 295 94.3
1996 40.9 45.3 329 116.8
1997 43.5 54.9 354 151.4
1998 45.2 55.5 395 91.6
1999 49.4 60.3 428 54.3
2000 54.8 64.7 497 40.4
2001 64.6 72.1 515 34.6
2002 68.9 90.4 599 27.2
2003 70.3 100.4 621 21.3
2004 75.2 111.6 654 17.8
2005 78.4 130.7 668 10.5
2006 79.7 180.5 684 9.3
2007 82.5 200.7 702 8.6
2008 86.9 256.8 714 6.5
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.994636
R Square 0.9893
Adjusted R 0.986382
Standard E 2.098828
Observatio 15
ANOVAdf SS MS F ignificance F
Regressio 3 4480.12 1493.373 339.0117 4.08E-11
Residual 11 48.45587 4.405079
Total 14 4528.576
Coefficient andard Err t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95% ower 95.0 pper 95.0
Intercept 5.500297 6.603681 0.832914 0.422609 -9.03431 20.0349 -9.03431 20.0349
X Variable 0.036033 0.016956 2.125094 0.057063 -0.00129 0.073353 -0.00129 0.073353
X Variable 0.100257 0.011911 8.417022 4.02E-06 0.074041 0.126474 0.074041 0.126474
X Variable 0.000437 0.030399 0.014385 0.98878 -0.06647 0.067346 -0.06647 0.067346
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
bservatio redicted Residuals
1 35.16984 -1.46984 2.160441
2 36.51909 2.080908 12.60784 4.330178
3 40.16829 0.731712 1.820329 0.535403
4 43.03577 0.464234 0.071545 0.215513
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-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Graficul reziduurilor
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-3
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anul pub pib isd ri
1994 33.7 34.8 283 97.9
1995 38.6 38.9 295 94.3
1996 40.9 45.3 329 116.8
1997 43.5 54.9 354 151.4
1998 45.2 55.5 395 91.6
1999 49.4 60.3 428 54.3
2000 54.8 64.7 497 40.4
2001 64.6 72.1 515 34.6
2002 68.9 90.4 599 27.2
2003 70.3 100.4 621 21.3
2004 75.2 111.6 654 17.8
2005 78.4 130.7 668 10.5
2006 79.7 180.5 684 9.3
2007 82.5 200.7 702 8.6
2008 86.9 256.8 714 6.5
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9946356
R Square 0.989299976
Adjusted R 0.986381788
Standard E 2.098828059
Observatio 15
ANOVA
df SS MS F ignificance F
Regressio 3 4480.12 1493.373 339.0117 4.08E-11
Residual 11 48.45587 4.405079
Total 14 4528.576
Coefficients andard Err t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95% ower 95.0 pper 95.0
Intercept 5.500296526 6.603681 0.832914 0.422609 -9.03431 20.0349 -9.03431 20.0349
X Variable 0.036033227 0.016956 2.185094 0.057063 -0.00129 0.073353 -0.00129 0.073353
X Variable 0.100257174 0.011911 8.417022 4.02E-06 0.074041 0.126474 0.074041 0.126474
X Variable 0.000437292 0.030399 0.014385 0.98878 -0.06647 0.067346 -0.06647 0.067346
anul pub pib isd ri
1994 33.7 34.8 283 97.9
1995 38.6 38.9 295 94.3
1996 40.9 45.3 329 116.8
1997 43.5 54.9 354 151.4
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1998 45.2 55.5 395 91.6
1999 49.4 60.3 428 54.3
2000 54.8 64.7 497 40.4
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.99232951
R Square 0.984717857
Adjusted R 0.97325625
Standard E 1.226480643
Observatio 8
ANOVA
df SS MS F ignificance F Regressio 3 387.7117 129.2372 85.91447 0.000436
Residual 4 6.017019 1.504255
Total 7 393.7288
Coefficients Standard t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95 Lower 95.0Upper 95.0
Intercept 61.48660321 25.22811 2.437226 0.071422 -8.55785 131.5311 -8.55785 131.5311
X Variable 0.053561576 0.014327 3.738415 0.020149 0.013782 0.093341 0.013782 0.093341
X Variable 0.018461239 0.033597 0.549488 0.611907 -0.07482 0.111742 -0.07482 0.111742
X Variable -0.308019356 0.22446 -1.37227 0.241901 -0.93122 0.31518 -0.93122 0.31518
2001 64.6 72.1 515 34.6
2002 68.9 90.4 599 27.2
2003 70.3 100.4 621 21.3
2004 75.2 111.6 654 17.8
2005 78.4 130.7 668 10.5
2006 79.7 180.5 684 9.3
2007 82.5 200.7 702 8.6
2008 86.9 256.8 714 6.5
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.99232951
R Square 0.984717857
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Adjusted R 0.97325625
Standard E 1.226480643
Observatio 8
ANOVA
df SS MS F ignificance F
Regressio 3 387.7117 129.2372 85.91447 0.000436Residual 4 6.017019 1.504255
Total 7 393.7288
Coefficients andard Err t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95% ower 95.0 pper 95.0
Intercept 61.48660321 25.22811 2.437226 0.071422 -8.55785 131.5311 -8.55785 131.5311
X Variable 0.053561576 0.014327 3.738415 0.020149 0.013782 0.093341 0.013782 0.093341
X Variable 0.018461239 0.033597 0.549488 0.611907 -0.07482 0.111742 -0.07482 0.111742
X Variable -0.308019356 0.22446 -1.37227 0.241901 -0.93122 0.31518 -0.93122 0.31518
R^2 barat 0.972
F* 3.458934719
F 4.120311727
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f* 339.0117
f finv 4.667193
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%
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4 42.77378 0.726225 0.004305 0.527402
5 46.47487 -1.27487 4.004372 1.625289
6 49.64494 -0.24494 1.060756 0.059995
7 58.63964 -3.83964 12.92189 14.74284
8 60.58049 4.019511 61.76627 16.15647
9 68.91904 -0.01904 16.30986 0.000362
10 71.33349 -1.03349 1.029119 1.06810311 74.78693 0.413075 2.09255 0.170631
12 76.88731 1.512691 1.209156 2.288233
13 80.5262 -0.8262 5.47043 0.682613
14 83.03378 -0.53378 0.085511 0.284923
15 86.59312 0.306876 0.706706 0.094173
120.9944 44.96376
dw 2.69093
0,814
1,750
-5-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
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uurilor
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9 10 11 12 13 14 15
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anul pub pib isd di
1994 33.7 34.8 283 0
1995 38.6 38.9 295 0
1996 40.9 45.3 329 0
1997 43.5 54.9 354 0
1998 45.2 55.5 395 0
1999 49.4 60.3 428 0
2000 54.8 64.7 497 1
2001 64.6 72.1 515 1
2002 68.9 90.4 599 1
2003 70.3 100.4 621 1
2004 75.2 111.6 654 1
2005 78.4 130.7 668 1
2006 79.7 180.5 684 1
2007 82.5 200.7 702 1
2008 86.9 256.8 714 1
2.593093
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.995023
R Square 0.990071
Adjusted R 0.987363
Standard E 2.021785Observatio 15
ANOVA
df SS MS F ignificance F
Regressio 3 4483.612 1494.537 365.6258 2.7E-11
Residual 11 44.96376 4.087615
Total 14 4528.576
Coefficient andard Err t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95% ower 95.0 pper 95.0
Intercept 8.616629 3.9843 2.162646 0.053457 -0.15276 17.38601 -0.15276 17.38601
X Variable 0.044276 0.018059 2.451744 0.032146 0.004528 0.084023 0.004528 0.084023
X Variable 0.089623 0.013121 6.830636 2.84E-05 0.060744 0.118501 0.060744 0.118501X Variable 2.615929 2.82983 0.924412 0.375106 -3.61249 8.844343 -3.61249 8.844343
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