FEWS NET [email protected]www.fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. PRICE WATCH January 2018 Prices February 28, 2018 KEY MESSAGES • In West Africa, regional staple food production for the 2017/18 marketing year is estimated to be above average, increasing for the fourth consecutive year. Locally-produced grain prices were stable at seasonally low levels, but remained above average across much of the region. Below average pastoral conditions and reduced exports to Nigeria continue to influence livestock markets in many areas. Market anomalies remain largely concentrated in the eastern marketing basin (Page 3). • In East Africa, markets remain severely disrupted by insecurity and significant macro-economic issues in Yemen and South Sudan, impeding staple food supply access and putting upward pressure on prices. Staple food prices varied acorss the region. Currency depreciation, elimination of wheat and wheat flour subsidies, and the delayed harvest drove atypical price increases in Sudan and kept prices significantly above average. Prices were atypically stable or declining in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania (Page 4). • In Southern Africa, domestic maize supplies are beginning to tighten in maize deficit countries but remain available in surplus producing South Africa and Zambia. Maize prices exhibited mixed trends as the lean season progressed but were generally below average levels for most of the region. Maize grain is generally able to circulate between surplus and deficit areas without major trade restrictions within the region. Export parity prices remain competitive, encouraging exports to East Africa (from Zambia and South Africa) and international markets (from South Africa) (Page 5). • In Central America, maize and bean availability remained high with supplies from the recent average to above-average Primera harvest and Postrera harvest. While maize prices remain below average across the region, bean prices varied. In Haiti, local black bean prices were mixed while local maize grain prices tightened for a second consecutive month due to below average supply. The price of imported maize meal decreased while imported rice prices remained firm (Page 6). • Central Asia sustained adequate supplies and intra- regional trade is expected to fill regional wheat deficits. Kazakhstan and Pakistan are expected to have above- average wheat harvests in MY 2017/18. Wheat prices remained stable though are below-average in the region’s largest exporter, Kazakhstan (Page 7). • International staple food markets remain well supplied. Rice, maize, wheat and soybean prices rose in January largely from a combination of higher import demand and concerns over growing conditions for major producers (Figure 2). Crude oil prices tightened for the seven consecutive month and remain at their highest since December 2014 (Page 2). Figure 1. FEWS NET Country coverage Source: FEWS NET. Note: Market Watch countries are surplus-producing countries whose impact on global, regional, national, and/or local markets is included in FEWS NET analysis. FEWS NET monitors trends in staple food prices in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Price Watch provides an update on market and price trends in selected reference markets. Specific trends for key reference markets and commodities are available in the Price Watch Annexes 1 and 2. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, the Regional Agricultural Intelligence Network, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), and others for their assistance in providing price data.
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PRICE WATCH January 2018 Prices February 28, 2018 PRI… · PRICE WATCH January 2018 Prices February 28, 2018 KEY MESSAGES • In West Africa, regional staple food production for
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FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not
necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.
PRICE WATCH January 2018 Prices February 28, 2018
KEY MESSAGES
• In West Africa, regional staple food production for the 2017/18 marketing year is estimated to be above average, increasing for the fourth consecutive year. Locally-produced grain prices were stable at seasonally low levels, but remained above average across much of the region. Below average pastoral conditions and reduced exports to Nigeria continue to influence livestock markets in many areas. Market anomalies remain largely concentrated in the eastern marketing basin (Page 3).
• In East Africa, markets remain severely disrupted by insecurity and significant macro-economic issues in Yemen and South Sudan, impeding staple food supply access and putting upward pressure on prices. Staple food prices varied acorss the region. Currency depreciation, elimination of wheat and wheat flour subsidies, and the delayed harvest drove atypical price increases in Sudan and kept prices significantly above average. Prices were atypically stable or declining in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania (Page 4).
• In Southern Africa, domestic maize supplies are beginning to tighten in maize deficit countries but remain available in surplus producing South Africa and Zambia. Maize prices exhibited mixed trends as the lean season progressed but were generally below average levels for most of the region. Maize grain is generally able to circulate between surplus and deficit areas without major trade restrictions within the region. Export parity prices remain competitive, encouraging exports to East Africa (from Zambia and South Africa) and international markets (from South Africa) (Page 5).
• In Central America, maize and bean availability remained high with supplies from the recent average to above-average Primera harvest and Postrera harvest. While maize prices remain below average across the region, bean prices varied. In Haiti, local black bean prices were mixed while local maize grain prices tightened for a second consecutive month due to below average supply. The price of imported maize meal decreased while imported rice prices remained firm (Page 6).
• Central Asia sustained adequate supplies and intra-regional trade is expected to fill regional wheat deficits. Kazakhstan and Pakistan are expected to have above-average wheat harvests in MY 2017/18. Wheat prices remained stable though are below-average in the region’s largest exporter, Kazakhstan (Page 7).
• International staple food markets remain well supplied. Rice, maize, wheat and soybean prices rose in January largely from a combination of higher import demand and concerns over growing conditions for major producers (Figure 2). Crude oil prices tightened for the seven consecutive month and remain at their highest since December 2014 (Page 2).
Figure 1. FEWS NET Country coverage
Source: FEWS NET.
Note: Market Watch countries are surplus-producing countries whose impact
on global, regional, national, and/or local markets is included in FEWS NET analysis.
FEWS NET monitors trends in staple food prices in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Price Watch provides an update on market and price trends in selected reference markets. Specific trends for key reference markets and commodities are available in the Price Watch Annexes 1 and 2. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, the Regional Agricultural Intelligence Network, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), and others for their assistance in providing price data.
• International rice prices rose sharply in January partly due to strong import demand from Indonesia (InterRice and World Bank). Rice prices were above previous year levels for the same period (Figure 2). Global supplies continue to remain close to average levels (Figure 3).
• Global maize prices increased slightly due to marginally higher global trade, underpinned by larger Turkey and European Union imports. Maize prices continue to remain below previous year and average levels. World Bank and USDA).
• International wheat prices rose marginally in January and were above previous year levels for key reference markets (IGC and USDA). Global wheat supplies remain well above average levels (Figure 3).
• Global soybean prices strengthened as the 2017 output was revised to 1 percent below the previous year peak. A record U.S. crop mostly compensated for reductions in Argentina’s crop (IGC).
• International crude oil prices rose in January as global inventories fell and remain at their highest levels since December 2014 (U.S. Energy Information Administration).
Outlook
• Global rice stocks will continue to remain well above average levels even with expectations for a marginal decline in rice stocks for 2018. Global rice acreage is predicted to expand for major exporters in 2018/19 as trade volumes remain high (IGC and InterRice).
• 2018 global maize production is forecasted to be 2 percent below previous year levels as dry conditions reduce prospects for maize output in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly Brazil, Argentina and South Africa (IGC and World Bank).
• Global wheat stocks are projected to fall for the first time since 2012 owing to expectations for reductions in both area planted and average yields as demand remains firm (USDA and IGC).
• Chinese import demand will shape global soybean trade in 2018. Area harvested is projected to increase by 2 percent relative to 2017 levels with gains in the U.S. and Brazil (IGC).
• International crude oil and petroleum product consumption is expected to increase in 2018 due to improved global economic growth expectations and increased world trade. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
Figure 2. Food commodity prices in selected international
markets, January 2011 – January 2018
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO),
World Bank.
Figure 3. Global Market Indicators, 2017/18 compared to 2012-
2016 average
Source: FEWS NET calculations based on USDA 2018.
Staple food price trends across the countries monitored by FEWS NET will vary considerably in the coming months in response to local and regional market conditions; international market trends will play a more limited role in most countries (Figure 2). Fuel price trends in FEWS NET countries will depend on both international market conditions, the evolution of local exchange rates in relation to the U.S. Dollar, and the design and implementation of local fuel import and price policies.
• The recent September to December main rain-fed season harvests concluded. West Africa’s aggregate cereal production is forecasted to increase for the fourth consecutive year, reaching nearly 68 million MT in 2017/18, six percent above last year and 14 percent above average (Figure 4). Regional market supplies are at their seasonal peak. However, market actors continue to limit market sales in Mali and Burkina Faso due to below-average carryover stocks following aggressive sales to the Eastern Basin in 2016/17. Supplies in Niger are below average due to the average crop performance and elevated source market prices in Nigeria, limiting imports.
• Trade flows are dynamic in the region with the progression of the main marketing period. Burkina Faso has increased its coarse grain imports due to relatively low stocks. Mauritania is also importing large quantities of sorghum from neighboring countries for both human consumption and animal feed. However, Senegal has suspended imports of groundnuts and maize due to abundant availability of these products. Trade remained disrupted in the insecurity stricken Greater Lake Chad basin, as well as parts of Northern and Central Mali.
• In Nigeria, locally-produced market supplies are above-average due to above-average production while demand remained low due to limited purchasing power. Prices increased on several markets in January due to demand pressure from agro-industries and institutions, increased cross-border demand from the countries in the Sahel (given the depreciated NGN value vis-à-vis XOF), high transport costs aggravated by restricted fuel access, and elevated inflation rates. Prices remained above-average.
• In the Sahel, prices are stable or lower compared to the previous month. However, locally-produced coarse grain prices remained above their respective 2017 and average levels (Figure 5), while rice (imported and local) prices were mostly stable across the Sahel. The Central Bank of Mauritania rebased the Ouguiya currency, but this change has had no significant effects on prices. In coastal countries, rice prices are above average, while tuber prices are below average.
• Livestock markets in the Sahel remain affected by relatively low export demand and volumes to Nigeria. Below average grazing conditions has also led to above average sales and earlier than usual seasonal transhumance. Atypical small-ruminant exports from Niger to the Central basin were also reported. Prices are therefore below average in most countries. This price trend has put downward pressure on livestock to cereals terms of trade for pastoralists.
Outlook
• Market supplies will be further strengthened until the end of the post-harvest period in March/April, while demand will progressively increase through to the lean season. Dynamic institutional purchases will lead traders to sell off stocks. Prices will follow their normal seasonal trends, but at above average levels in most countries. Prices could begin to increase earlier than usual due to expected early stocks depletion in deficit areas.
• In Nigeria, both markets and household stocks will remain well supplied during the early months of the marketing year, bolstered by dry season harvests. Above average trader and institutional demand will put additional pressure on prices beginning in June as the lean season approaches. Maize and millet prices may increase as early as May ahead of Ramadan.
Figure 4. West Africa Regional cereal production (000s MT)
Source: FEWS NET estimates based on CLISS 2017 data.
Figure 5. Sorghum prices in West Africa compared to average
levels
Source: FEWS NET estimates based on SIM Senegal, OMA Mali, SONAGESS Burkina Faso, SIMA Niger, and FEWS NET data
• Worsening economic conditions and conflict-related trade flow disruptions continued to elevate prices above last year and five-year average levels in South Sudan. These disruptions are expected to remain elevated through the remainder of the dry season while heightened conflict continues in various parts of the country. Trade flows in the north from Sudan increased, while security along trade flow routes from Uganda improved, but significantly reduced purchasing power in Juba kept imports below last year’s levels. Staple food prices started to increase earlier than usual in most reference markets despite the ongoing October-to-February harvest. Production is estimated below average and 2016/17 levels, resulting in low supply levels that are further exacerbating the atypically high prices driven by continued hyperinflation, depreciation of local currency (Figure 6), and erratic trade flows due to insecurity.
• In Yemen, the ongoing conflict continued to curb economic activities, eroding the purchasing power and restricting market access by most households. Wheat flour prices increased again due to exceptional upward pressure from ongoing currency depreciation, which increased imported food prices, in addition to the lingering effects of the port blockade by the Saudi coalition, which limited commercial and food aid imports and increased the costs of distribution through heightened fuel scarcity.
• Prices were mixed in Somalia, remaining stable or declining in the southern and north-western regions due to availability from the December-to-January harvests, but increasing in the central region as ample supplies were yet to reach the markets. Local quality goat prices were generally higher across most regions as a result of reduced supply of saleable animals to the markets following recent droughts, as well as constant demand for local meat consumption.
• Staple food (millet and sorghum) prices continued to increase atypically in Sudan despite the ongoing October-to-January harvests because of local currency depreciation, elimination of wheat and wheat flour subsidies, increased harvesting and transport costs, and delayed harvest. Wheat prices also increased for the fifth consecutive month as supplies tightened. Prices of all staple foods are above-average (Figure 7) due to the deteriorating economic conditions and are expected to remain elevated in the coming months. Livestock prices declined slightly across most markets following increased market supplies as pasture and water availability start to decline.
• In Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania prices were atypically stable or declining. In Ethiopia, high inflation following currency devaluation outweighed downward pressure on prices from increased locally produced supplies. The October-to-January harvests in the main producing area of North-Rift and the eastern marginal agricultural area, in addition to imports from Uganda and Ethiopia, boosted supplies in Kenya. In Tanzania, maize supplies from the May-to-August (Msimu) harvest were above average and market demand is atypically low resulting from the lingering effects of the maize export ban that has recently been lifted. Prices in Uganda were stable or increasing in most markets as stocks began to decline.
Figure 6. Exchange rates of selected regional currencies
Source: FEWS NET, FSNAU, and OANDA. Note: * denotes values on secondary axis.
Figure 7. Sorghum prices in East Africa compared to average
levels
Source: FEWS NET estimates based on Food and Agriculture Market
Information System (FAMIS), FSNAU, Uganda Bureau of Statistics and Farmgain, Tanzania Ministry of Industry, Trade and Marketing (MITM),
Ethiopia Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE), Ministry of Agriculture of Kenya, Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP), SIFSIA, WFP VAM*.
• In Southern Africa, maize supplies tightened in grain deficit countries but remain available in South Africa and Zambia following above average regional maize harvests. Both countries maintained exports to regional grain deficit countries and beyond. Formal and informal maize trade ensured movement of surpluses to deficit areas of the region. In Madagascar, local (gasy) rice and maize harvests were 20 percent below previous year levels as imported rice continued to play an important role in staple food supply.
• Maize prices were mixed as the lean season progressed in most of Southern Africa (Figure 8). With the exception of Madagascar and parts of northeastern DRC, maize prices were below their respective 2017 and average levels for most of the region, while the price of common substitutes such as maize meal, rice, and cassava were mixed.
• In South Africa, January maize export parity prices rose to international reference levels after relative stability in the second half of the 2017/18 marketing year. Prices were stable or increasing in Zambia’s grain deficit areas due to declining supply levels and demand pressure from DRC.
• In Zimbabwe, maize prices rose sharply to levels closer to their respective 2017 and average levels. Prices in Tanzania declined atypically and were below average levels owing to the combination of above average Msimu harvest and weaker demand following the removal of its export ban in November 2017. Prices rose in Malawi after four consecutive months of relative stability but were mixed in Mozambique despite above average supplies in the northern and central regions. In Madagascar, maize prices were mixed in January while local (gasy) rice prices were mostly stable as early harvest began to supply some markets. The exception were areas affected by cyclone AVA, which caused temporary market disruption in parts of southeastern Madagascar (Figure 9). In the DRC, maize prices rose for key reference markets in the Ituri, North Kivu and Tanganyika provinces but were largely stable in the Kasai region and Haut Katanga province.
Outlook
• Regional maize supplies will gradually decline through March 2018, except for South Africa and Zambia where supplies may continue to remain above average and satisfy needs in grain deficit countries. Regional trade will strengthen in the coming months in anticipation of below average harvests in countries that experienced dry conditions during the main vegetative to reproductive stages of the 2018 maize crop. International trade may begin weakening at the start of the 2018/19 marketing year as South Africa and Zambia are likely to prioritize regional exports. In most of the region, maize prices will increase through March before declining seasonally at near average levels beyond March, owing to poor expected 2018 harvests. In Madagascar, maize supply will improve with the upcoming March harvest while market supply for local (gasy) rice will be exhausted with prices tightening by March as local rice (gasy) is increasingly replaced by imported rice. The combination of below average harvests and conflict related market disruptions will continue to sustain atypically high maize prices for key reference markets in eastern DRC.
Figure 8. White maize prices in selected markets (USD/kg)
Source: FEWS NET estimates based on data from SADC and government ministries.
Figure 9. Current maize prices in Southern Africa (USD/kg)
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Water Development of Malawi, Ministry of Industry, Trade and Marketing (MITM) of
Tanzania, Ministry of Agriculture of Mozambique, Central Statistics
• Maize supplies from the recent average to above-average Primera, the main maize harvest, and the ongoing Postrera harvest continued to seasonally increase in markets throughout the region. Informal flows to Guatemala from Mexico remain elevated because of the decline in value of the Mexican Peso and continue to boost maize availability. While white maize prices followed typical trends in El Salvador, where they remained stable, and Nicaragua, where they began to seasonally increase. While prices usually also begin to increase in Guatemala and Honduras in January, ample availability kept prices stable. Prices remain below average levels across the region (Figure 10).
• Bean prices were stable across the region in January due to the increase in bean supplies in markets from the recent Primera and ongoing Postrera harvests as well. After three months of elevated prices in Honduras driven by road closures and transport limitations caused by political tensions around the presidential elections, the situation has stabilized. Bean prices in January compared to historical levels (2017 and five-year average) varied.
• In Haiti, local black beans prices were mixed but remain above average. Prices eased in areas where harvests were still ongoing but increased in other areas owing to a combination of below average harvest and growing farmer preference in selling green beans, which is considered more profitable. Local maize grain prices increased due to weak supply from below average Automne/Hiver harvests. The most significant increase in prices were in Les Cayes and Fonds-des-Nègres, where supply tightened further following the procurement of local maize grain under the Programme National de Cantines Scolaires (PNCS). Imported maize meal prices eased slightly in January, while imported rice prices were firm at levels above their five-year average (Figure 11).
Outlook
• In Central America, maize and bean prices will likely follow seasonal trends and slightly increase or remain stable through April. Bean prices are expected to start to decrease with supplies from the Apante harvests in April in Nicaragua and Honduras, and the Peten harvest in Guatemala. The average to above-average maize supply levels are expected to sustain below-average prices across the region through May 2018, except in Nicaragua where prices are projected to be trend closer to average levels. Bean prices compared to average levels may vary in the region.
• In Haiti, cereal import requirements for the 2017/18 marketing year remains above average but below record levels from the 2016/17 marketing year (FAO). Local black beans are expected to ease in February as supply increases from ongoing hiver harvests. Local maize prices will likely continue to tighten as early planting begins for the 2018 Printemps season. Markets will continue to be supplied with imported commodities such as rice, maize meal, vegetable oil and wheat. Imported commodity prices will be firm but remain above average levels and will continue to respond to changes in import policies as well as the Haitian gourde to USD exchange rate.
Figure 10. White maize prices in Central America compared to
average levels
Source: Coordination nationale de la sécurité alimentaire (CNSA) and FEWS
NET, MAL, Dirección General de Economía Agropecuaria (DGECA), Sistema de Información de Mercados Productos Agrícolas de Honduras (SIMPAH),
Secretaria de Economia de Mexico, and Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganaderia y Alimentacion de Guatemala (MAGA).
Figure 11. Average national staple food prices and exchange
• Regional availability and price trends varied considerably across Central Asia with the progression of the 2017/18 marketing year (Figure 12 and Table 1). As detailed in the Central Asia Regional Wheat Supply and Market Outlook, localized wheat deficits are expected to be filled through intra-regional trade.
• Wheat grain export prices in Kazakhstan, the region’s largest exporter, remain stable. Prices are slightly higher than respective 2017 levels but 26 percent below the five-year average.
• Wheat flour prices in Tajikistan are stable. Prices in December remained 8.9 percent above the five-year average. Potato prices decreased through the end of 2017 but are still above 2016 and five-year average prices. The value of Tajikistani Somoni (TSJ) has remained stable between December 2017 and January 2018.
• In Pakistan, wheat grain and flour prices remained stable between December and January in major markets. Prices are comparable to 2017 levels and the five-year average, reflecting average production and above-average carry-over stocks.
• In Afghanistan, wheat grain and flour prices were mostly stable between December and January but varied among the main markets following a below-average wheat harvest in 2017. The current retail price of wheat flour is slightly lower than last year and the five-year average. Currently, the price of low quality rice is nine percent higher than January 2017. The current average price of high quality rice is 20 percent higher compared to January 2017, and 12 percent higher than the five-year average price.
Outlook
• Regional availability and price trends are expected to continue varying across Central Asia.
• The 2017/18 wheat harvest in Kazakhstan is estimated to be 14 million tons, seven percent below last year’s above-average production due to a reduction in area planted. Overall supply is supported by high carry-over stocks (USDA/FAS). Kazakhstan is expected to maintain steady exports of wheat, contributing to stable regional supplies.
• In Tajikistan, the wheat harvest will reportedly be seven percent above last year’s harvest, likely reducing the import requirement in the coming marketing year (FAO/GIEWS). However, due to the weak national currency, nominal prices of wheat grain and flour are likely to remain high.
• Total wheat grain production in Pakistan for the 2017/18 marketing year is estimated at 26.5 MMT, higher than ever, by the Federal Committee on Agriculture and USDA/FAS. The favorable weather conditions in January have increased the likelihood of achieving this target. Average production for the last couple of years has resulted in above-average carry-over stocks that are nearly double the five-year average.
• The 2017 harvest in Afghanistan is below last year and five-year average according to the Agricultural Prospects Report of the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock. Favorable regional supply conditions are expected to contribute to stable prices in Afghanistan. Namely, the above-average wheat production in Pakistan, which could support stabilizing prices in Afghanistan if political tension between the two countries does not affect wheat flour imports.
Figure 12. Wheat grain prices in Central Asia
Source: WFP, VAM, APK Inform Agency, Kazakhstan.
Table 1. Regional wheat availability and price trends
PRICE WATCH ANNEX 1 January 2018 Prices February 28, 2018
Food and Fuel Price Trends Food and Fuel Price Trends
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United
States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries vulnerable to food insecurity. The Price Watch Annex 1 provides prices
and price changes for key markets and staple foods monitored across FEWS NET countries and regions. The prices are final monthly average prices for January 2018. Commodities
included in the Annex are the staples most often consumed by the poor in the indicated market. Additional commodities provided are important commodities consumed in the same
areas or fuel prices that affect food prices. Final monthly average prices are used. The symbols (▲►▼) depict the direction of price changes: the red upward-facing arrow denotes an
increase of five percent or greater. The blue horizontal arrow denotes no change or changes that are smaller than 5 percent, and the green downward-facing arrow denotes price
decreases that are five percent or greater. The three arrows respectively correspond to the percent change in prices this month compared to last month, last year, and the five-year
average. The “-“ symbol indicates that data are not available. The commodities with a reference (W) are wholesale prices. Otherwise, all reported prices are retail.
PRICE WATCH ANNEX 2 January 2018 prices February 28, 2018
We
st A
fric
a
Figure 1. Millet prices in West Africa (2012 - 2018) Figure 2. Sorghum prices in West Africa (2012 - 2018)
Figure 3. Maize prices in West Africa (2012 - 2018) Figure 4. Rice prices in West Africa (2012 - 2018)
East
Afr
ica
Figure 5. Dry bean prices in East Africa (2012 - 2018) Figure 6. Sorghum prices in East Africa (2012 - 2018)
Sources of prices in West Africa: Information System on agricultural markets (SIMA) Niger, Agricultural Market Observatory (OMA) Mali, Burkina Faso SONAGESS, Information System
market (SIM) in Senegal and FEWS NET.
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries vulnerable to food insecurity. The Price Watch Annex 2 provides
prices trends for key markets and staple foods monitored across FEWS NET countries and regions. The commodities with a reference (W) are wholesale prices. Otherwise, all
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the
view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.
____________________* imported rice
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Moundou, Chad Solenzo, Burkina FasoSegou, Segou centre, Mali Maradi, NigerKaolak, Senegal
USD/kg
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Maradi, Niger Moundou, ChadSegou, Segou centre, Mali Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina FasoKano, Nigeria (W)
USD/kg
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Bol, Chad Malanville, Benin
Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina Faso Kano, Nigeria (W)
USD/kg
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Bamako, Mali Dakar, Tilène, Senegal
Monrovia, Red Light, Liberia
USD/kg
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Arusha, Tanzania (W) Kigali City, Rwanda
Eldoret, Kenya (W) Masindi, Uganda (W)
USD/kg
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Al Qadarif, Sudan Baidoa, SomaliaKampala, Uganda (W) Juba, South SudanDire Dawa, Ethiopia (W)
Figure 7. Maize prices in surplus areas of East Africa (2012 - 2018) Figure 8. Maize prices in deficit areas of East Africa (2012 - 2018)
February 2018
Figure 9. White maize prices in Southern Africa (2012 - 2018) Figure 10. Bean and cowpea prices in Southern Africa (2012 - 2018)
Figure 11. Imported rice prices in Southern Africa (2012 - 2018)
So
uth
ern
Afr
ica
Sources of prices in East Africa: Food and Agriculture Market Information System (FAMIS) FSTS/FEWS NET in Somalia, Uganda Bureau of Statistics and Farmgain, Tanzania Ministry of
Industry, Trade and Marketing (MITM), Ethiopia Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE), Ministry of Agriculture of Kenya, Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP), SIFSIA, WFP VAM
Sources of prices in Southern Africa: Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Water Development of Malawi, Ministry of Industry, Trade and Marketing (MITM)) of Tanzania, Observatoire
du Riz of Madagascar, Ministry of Agriculture of Mozambique, Central Statistics Office of Zambia, SAFEX, WFP and FEWS NET.
____________________* dry beans** cowpeas
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Lilongwe, Malawi Lusaka, Zambia
Harare, Zimbabwe Maputo, Mozambique
Mbeya, Tanzania (W) Randfontein, South Africa
USD/kgUSD/kg
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Arusha, Tanzania (W) Dodoma, Tanzania (W)
Maputo, Mozambique Nampula, Mozambique
USD/kg
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Arusha, Tanzania (W) Bahir Dar, Ethiopia (W)Eldoret, Kenya (W) Kampala, Uganda (W)Qorioley, Somalia Songea, Tanzania (W)
USD/kg
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Dire Dawa, Ethiopia (W) Jamame, SomaliaJijiga, Ethiopia Juba, South SudanNairobi, Kenya (W)
Figure 12. White maize prices in Central America (2011 - 2017) Figure 13. Dry bean prices in Central America (2011 - 2017)
Cen
tral A
meri
ca a
nd
Cari
bb
ean
Figure 14. Imported Rice Prices in Haiti (2011 - 2017) Figure 15. Black bean prices in Haiti (2011 - 2017)
Cen
tral A
sia
Figure 16. Wheat grain prices in Central Asia (2011 - 2017) Figure 17. Wheat flour prices in Central Asia (2011 - 2017)
**
****
*
Sources of prices in Central America and Caribbean: Coordination nationale de la sécurité alimentaire (CNSA) and FEWS NET, MAL, Dirección General de Economía Agropecuaria
(DGEA), Sistema de Información de Mercados Productos Agrícolas de Honduras (SIMPAH), Secretaria de Economia de Mexico, and Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganaderia y Alimentacion
____________________* black beans** red beans
Sources of prices in Central Asia: Afghanistan, WFP and FEWS NET.
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Cap Haïtien, Haiti Hinche, HaitiJacmel, Haiti Jérémie, HaitiPort-au-Prince, Haiti
USD/kg
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Guatemala City, Guatemala (W) Managua, NicaraguaSan Salvador, El Salvador San Jose, Costa Rica (W)Tegucigalpa, Honduras
USD/kg
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Guatemala City, Guatemala Managua, Nicaragua (W)San Salvador, El Salvador Mexico City, Mexico (W)Tegucigalpa, Honduras
USD/kg
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Cap Haïtien, Haiti Hinche, HaitiJacmel, Haiti Jérémie, HaitiPort-au-Prince, Haiti