FEWS NET [email protected]www.fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. PRICE WATCH September 2021 Prices October 29, 2021 KEY MESSAGES • In West Africa, staple food supplies increased with the beginning of the 2021/2022 rainfed harvest season. However, supply remained below the five-year average across much of the region. Despite decreasing seasonally as households started to consume from their own production, market demand remained above average due to increased replenishment of stocks and below-average trade flows. Although prices decreased compared to the previous month, staple food prices remained above the five-year average, especially in Nigeria. Conflict-related market disruptions persisted across parts of Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, and Cameroon (Page 3). • In East Africa, prices continued seasonal but divergent trends. Maize prices were stable or declined in Kenya, South Sudan, and Ethiopia due to ongoing or imminent harvests. In Uganda, Tanzania, and Somalia, maize prices were stable due to sufficient supply from recent May-to-August harvests. Sorghum prices increased seasonably in Somalia and Uganda as stocks tightened, while prices decreased in South Sudan and Sudan as sales increased ahead of the October- to-December harvest. Livestock prices increased across most pastoral markets due to good rangeland conditions and high demand. High inflation and expectations of below-average harvests sustained elevated prices in Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Sudan (Page 4). • In Southern Africa, markets and the milling subsector are well-supplied with maize following above-average production during the 2020/21 production year, except in Madagascar, where supply was below average. Price trends followed seasonal stable or increasing trends in September. Prices remained lowest in Malawi and South Africa. South Africa continued to export yellow maize to international markets and white maize to regional markets. While firm international commodity prices supported regional export earnings, many regional currencies continued to depreciate (Page 5). • In Central America, markets were well supplied and operating normally. Maize prices declined following primera harvests in Guatemala and increased seasonally elsewhere in the region. Local bean prices were stable except in El Salvador where prices increased. Imported rice prices were similarly stable. In Haiti, local maize and black bean prices declined following spring harvests. Imported rice prices were stable while other imported staples continued to experience depreciation- induced price increases. Insecurity disrupted commercial activities and fuel distribution in Port au Prince (Page 6). • In Central Asia, wheat price trends varied. Wheat prices in Kazakhstan and Pakistan tracked international reference market trends, increasing further in September. After increasing July and September, prices were stable across many markets in Afghanistan. In Yemen, prices remained above average due to protracted conflict and persistent depreciation of the YER. Price trends differed significantly between internationally recognized government (IRG) and Sana’a- based authorities (SBA) controlled areas (Page 7). • International staple food markets are well supplied. Rice and maize prices have declined since the beginning of the year, while wheat prices have continued rising at elevated levels (Figure 2). Global crude oil and fertilizer prices and freight costs are currently at the highest levels in the past five years (Page 2). Figure 1. FEWS NET market monitoring country coverage Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET monitors trends in staple food prices in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Price Watch provides an update on market and price trends in selected reference markets. Specific trends for key reference markets and commodities are available in the Price Watch Annexes 1 and 2. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, the Regional Agricultural Intelligence Network, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), and others for their assistance in providing price data.
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PRICE WATCH September 2021 Prices October 29, 2021
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FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not
necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International
Development or the United States Government.
PRICE WATCH September 2021 Prices October 29, 2021
KEY MESSAGES
• In West Africa, staple food supplies increased with the beginning of the 2021/2022 rainfed harvest season. However,supply remained below the five-year average across much of the region. Despite decreasing seasonally as householdsstarted to consume from their own production, market demand remained above average due to increased replenishmentof stocks and below-average trade flows. Although prices decreased compared to the previous month, staple food pricesremained above the five-year average, especially in Nigeria. Conflict-related market disruptions persisted across parts ofMali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, and Cameroon (Page 3).
• In East Africa, prices continued seasonal but divergent trends. Maize prices were stable or declined in Kenya, SouthSudan, and Ethiopia due to ongoing or imminent harvests. In Uganda, Tanzania, and Somalia, maize prices were stabledue to sufficient supply from recent May-to-August harvests. Sorghum prices increased seasonably in Somalia andUganda as stocks tightened, while prices decreased in South Sudan and Sudan as sales increased ahead of the October-to-December harvest. Livestock prices increased across most pastoral markets due to good rangeland conditions andhigh demand. High inflation and expectations of below-average harvests sustained elevated prices in Kenya, Uganda,Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Sudan (Page 4).
• In Southern Africa, markets and the milling subsector are well-supplied with maize following above-average productionduring the 2020/21 production year, except in Madagascar, where supply was below average. Price trends followedseasonal stable or increasing trends in September. Prices remained lowest in Malawi and South Africa. South Africacontinued to export yellow maize to international markets and white maize to regional markets. While firm internationalcommodity prices supported regional export earnings, many regional currencies continued to depreciate (Page 5).
• In Central America, markets were well supplied and operating normally. Maize prices declined following primera harvestsin Guatemala and increased seasonally elsewhere in the region. Local bean prices were stable except in El Salvador whereprices increased. Imported rice prices were similarly stable. In Haiti, local maize and black bean prices declined followingspring harvests. Imported rice prices were stable while other imported staples continued to experience depreciation-induced price increases. Insecurity disrupted commercial activities and fuel distribution in Port au Prince (Page 6).
• In Central Asia, wheat price trends varied. Wheat pricesin Kazakhstan and Pakistan tracked internationalreference market trends, increasing further inSeptember. After increasing July and September, priceswere stable across many markets in Afghanistan. InYemen, prices remained above average due toprotracted conflict and persistent depreciation of theYER. Price trends differed significantly betweeninternationally recognized government (IRG) and Sana’a-based authorities (SBA) controlled areas (Page 7).
• International staple food markets are well supplied. Riceand maize prices have declined since the beginning of theyear, while wheat prices have continued rising at elevated levels (Figure 2). Global crude oil and fertilizer prices andfreight costs are currently at the highest levels in the past five years (Page 2).
Figure 1. FEWS NET market monitoring country coverage
Source: FEWS NET
FEWS NET monitors trends in staple food prices in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Price Watch provides an update on market and price trends in selected reference markets. Specific trends for key reference markets and commodities are available in the Price Watch Annexes 1 and 2. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, the Regional Agricultural Intelligence Network, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), and others for their assistance in providing price data.
• Rice prices declined in 2021 and were below 2020 levels in September (Figure 2). These trends were due to strong competition, favorable crop prospects, rising freight costs, and weak demand (InterRice).
• Maize prices were stable at elevated levels in September after declining earlier in the year as trading activity slowed down on lower export expectations (FAO). Production has expanded in Argentina, China, and the United States (USDA).
• Wheat prices have followed a general upward trend in 2021. Global wheat supplies and ending stocks are projected to decline in 2021/22(USDA) (Figure 3).
• Crude oil prices increased over 2021 as demand recovered, along with a drop in inventories and an easing COVID-19-related mobility restrictions (OPEC). Energy, fertilizer, and freight costs are well above September 2020- and five-year average levels (AMIS and WB, and U.S. Energy Information Administration) (Figure 4).
Outlook (October 2021 onward)
• There are several notable risks for global staple food markets. Shipping container shortages and port delays may affect agricultural commodity and fertilizer trade. Elevated fuel, fertilizer, and freight costs have rebounded from their early 2020 levels and may put upward pressure on agricultural production and transportation costs.
• Rice production is expected to increase and continue to outpace consumption levels (Figure 3). Prices are expected to remain below 2020 levels (InterRice and WB).
• Maize and wheat production is projected to increase in MY 2021/22, while ending stocks are projected to be below average. Maize and wheat prices are expected to remain above 2020 levels (IGC, USDA, and WB).
• Crude oil market indicators point to diverging trends in 2022. While demand is expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2022 (U.S. Energy Information Administration), production among the OPEC+ and others is expected to expand in the near term (WB). Fertilizer prices are expected to remain at elevated levels (AMIS and WB).
Figure 2. Food commodity prices in selected international
markets, January 2016 – September 2021
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO),
World Bank
Figure 3. Global commodity supply indicators
Source: FEWS NET calculations based on USDA data
Figure 4. International energy, fertilizer, and freight cost
indices, January 2016 - September 2021
Source: International Grains Council and World Bank Note: The ICG Freight Index considers costs from major grain exporting
countries. Crude oil composes more than 80 percent of the World Bank energy
index while nitrogenous fertilizer contributes to over 40 percent of the fertilizer
index.
Staple food price trends across the countries monitored by FEWS NET will vary considerably in the coming months in response to local and regional market conditions; international market trends will play a more limited role in most countries (Figure 2). Fuel price trends in FEWS NET countries will depend on both international market conditions, the evolution of local exchange rates in relation to the U.S. Dollar, and the design and implementation of local fuel import and price policies.
• Market supplies were below average with the onset of the 2021/2022 rainfed season harvests. This is due to below average carry-over stocks and trade flows, and dry spells in countries across the Sahel that led to delayed releasing of trader stocks. Moreover, markets and trade remained disrupted by insecurity and conflict in the Greater Lake Chad basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, northwest and north-central Nigeria, and the North-West and South-West regions of Cameroon.
• While market demand decreased as households began consuming from their own production, demand nevertheless remained above average across the region due to increased replenishment of stocks and above-average industrial purchases. Cross-border trade remained below average due to COVID-19 restrictions, insecurity, harassments along trade corridors, high transport costs, and lingering governmental restrictions.
• In Nigeria, despite depreciation of the NGN, inflation decreased slightly for the sixth consecutive month in September to 16.63 percent but remained among the highest levels recorded in the past five years (NBS). Prices generally decreased compared to the previous month. However, market disruptions and atypical price trends persisted in conflict-affected areas of the northwest, northcentral, and northeast, including Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto, Kaduna, and Borno states. Overall, with the below-average supplies and high transaction costs, prices were above the previous year and five-year average (Figure 5).
• In the Sahel, locally produced grain prices were stable compared to the previous month or declined seasonally. However, in Mali and Burkina Faso, monthly prices trended upward in September. Grain prices remained above average (Figure 6). Above-average prices continued for imported and processed commodities (rice, edible oil, sugar, wheat flour, powder milk, meat, and fish). In several Coastal countries (Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, and Guinea), prices of local and imported rice, maize, and tubers declined seasonally at above-average levels. In Cameroon, price trends varied: local staple food prices declined seasonally with the onset of harvests but remained above average in the Far North; In the conflict-stricken North-West and South-West regions, prices in surplus areas remained below-average due to limited farmer/trader access to national and regional markets; imported rice prices remained elevated in urban areas due high import costs.
• Livestock market supplies were stable in much of the Sahel, except in insecurity-stricken areas that continue to experience limited herd movements and cases of livestock rustling. Prices were near or above average in much of the central basin but below average in parts of the eastern basin, mostly due to trade limitations.
Outlook (October 2021 onward)
• Market supplies will continue to strengthen with ongoing harvests and will remain enough to satisfy regional demand. Prices will continue to decrease seasonally until February/March 2022 but will likely remain above average due to higher replenishment of stocks, anticipated production decreases in some countries, and higher international import costs.
• In Nigeria, food availability is expected to increase as harvests continue until December 2021. Thus, market reliance will reduce, pushing down prices through December 2021. Prices will remain above average.
Figure 5. September 2021 prices trends in selected Nigerian
markets
Source: FEWS NET
Figure 6. September 2021 millet price trends in selected
• Staple food prices in East Africa followed seasonal but divergent trends. Maize prices were stable or declined slightly in Kenya, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia, Uganda, and Tanzania due to imminent or ongoing harvests. Sorghum prices declined in South Sudan, were stable in Sudan, but increased in Uganda and Somalia as stocks declined. Livestock prices increased due to improved rangeland conditions and above-average local and regional demand. High inflation and expectations of below-average harvests continued to put upward pressure on prices in Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Sudan.
• Maize prices across Tanzania remained seasonably stable as supply increased from the May-to-August harvest. Similarly, in Kenya, maize prices remained stable due to increased supply from the July-to-October harvest, the imminent start of the main October-to-December harvest, and above-average cross-border trade from Tanzania and Uganda (Figure 7). In Ethiopia, staple food prices varied as conflict in the northeastern regions of Amhara and Tigray continued to limit market functionality and supply. Prices declined, however, in the southern markets as supply increased with the onset of the September-to-January main harvest. In the southern and southeastern pastoral areas, imported commodity prices increased with the depreciation of the ETB.
• Staple food prices in South Sudan declined in southern markets due to availability from the July-to-August harvest, remained stable or declined in central and western markets because of availability of food aid, and increased in the east due unavailability of food aid. Price remained elevated despite stable parallel and government foreign exchange rates, declining rate of inflation, and above-average imports from Uganda and Sudan (Figure 8). In Sudan, sorghum prices remained stable or declined slightly across most markets due to ample supply and availability of food aid, whereas millet and locally-produced wheat prices increased in most markets as supply tightened and due to uncertainty over the upcoming November-to-January harvest. In Somalia, the price of sorghum increased as supply tightened except in the main producing Qoryoley market due to atypical supply from the early entry of August-to-October harvests. In Uganda, maize prices were stable due to ample supply, whereas dry beans, cassava, and sorghum prices increased across most markets as supplies from the below-average June-to-July harvest tightened. The prices of staple food commodities in Burundi including grains, roots and tubers and pulses increased seasonably as supply tightened.
Outlook (October 2021 onward)
• Staple food prices in conflict-affected areas of Ethiopia are expected to increase due adversely affected market functions. Exports from Uganda and Tanzania are expected to increase following expectations of below-average harvest in the consumption countries where prices are expected to be moderately-to-significantly above-average levels.
• FEWS NET is monitoring the dynamics in Sudan closely following the events on October 25, 2021.
Figure 7. September 2021 maize prices in East Africa
(USD/kg)
Source: FEWS NET estimates
Figure 8. Exchange rate, consumer price index, and terms of
trade trends in South Sudan
Source: FEWS NET estimates Note: January 2016 = 100
• In Southern Africa, regional maize supply for the 2021/22 marketing year (MY) is above average. Maize prices were stable or continued increasing seasonally in September (Figure 9). Consecutive seasons of drought coupled with the effects of income from cash-based assistance resulted in locally increasing and volatile prices in southern Madagascar. Prices in South Africa continued to track global reference markets, trends that have been transmitted to import-dependent neighboring countries. Intra-regional informal trade has been limited to due to ample domestic supplies while exports to East Africa expanded.
• In South Africa, despite favorable domestic and regional production, spot prices increased during the post-harvest period but declined in September (Figure 9). In Tanzania, maize prices decreased in September with the availability of stocks from recent bi-modal harvests. Prices there are well below their 2020 and five-year average levels. In Zambia, the government continued issuing export permits for maize grain and flour. The Food Reserve Agency’s (FRA) strategic reserved reached .69 MMT against a revised target of .80 MMT. Prices were stable or declined, supported by the recent appreciation of the ZMW.
• In Mozambique, maize prices were stable and below their 2020 levels in most markets. Price decreased in the conflict-affected Cabo Delgado area due to increased availability of in-kind assistance. After depreciating in 2019 and 2020, the recent appreciation of the MZN contributed to stable imported maize meal and rice prices. In Malawi, maize grain prices were stable or began increasing seasonally. ADMARC had purchased less than half of its .4MMT target; ADMARC purchase prices remain well below prevailing market rates. While annual inflation declined, the value of the MWK continued declining (Figure 10). Prices are nevertheless well below 2020 levels and among the lowest in the region (Figure 9).
• In Zimbabwe, maize supply on markets remained at below-average levels in both surplus and deficit areas due to grain marketing restrictions. Maize prices in both USD and ZAR terms were stable while prices in ZWL terms increased as the national currency continue to depreciate. Although households in surplus-producing areas continue to access gain from their own harvests, availability in deficit areas was limited. In DRC, prices were stable on most markets although local supply chain disruptions and insecurity affected supplies in some areas. Prices were below their 2020 and average levels. In Madagascar, rice prices were stable and supported by government subsidies. However, rice price remained above their 2020 levels. Staple food prices have been elevated and variable in the Grand Sud of Madagascar following recent droughts. Recent large-scale cash transfer programs contributed to additional upward pressure on prices
Outlook (October 2021 onward)
• Maize grain market supplies are expected to remain average to above average, given current projections for an above-average 2022 harvest. Increased regional food trade (including trade with East Africa) will lead to increasing maize grain prices in source countries in the short-to-medium term. South Africa will continue exporting to international markets due to strong global maize demand. Local availability is expected to remain constrained in southern Madagascar, resulting in high and variable prices. FEWS NET will monitor the status of local government purchase, sale, and distribution plans and policies and their impacts on market dynamics and prices, especially in Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Zambia.
Figure 9. Maize prices in Southern Africa, January 2016 –
September 2021
Source: FEWS NET estimates
Figure 10. Southern Africa regional currency indices
Source: FEWS NET estimates based on Oanda data Note: January 2016=100
• In Central America, markets were operating normally and remain supplied with local and imported staple foods. White maize availability was average and relied on recent harvests, stocks, and imports. Bean supply was close to average and composed primarily of stocks from recent apante/postrera tardía harvests. Formal and informal trade from Mexico was stable.
• White maize wholesale and retail prices increased seasonally, except in Guatemala where they declined following recent primera harvests (Figure 11). Delayed primera harvests in Nicaragua and Honduras led to some market speculation. Prices were above 2020 levels, except in Honduras, and above-average across the region.
• Red bean wholesale and retail prices were stable in September from apante/postrera tardía stocks. Prices increased in El Salvador due to strengthened market demand and elevated fuel prices. Black bean wholesale prices in Guatemala and Mexico remained stable at above-average levels.
• Rice wholesale and retail prices were stable in September due to ample import availability and steady international prices. Progressive price increases in the preceding months resulted in above-average imported rice prices.
• In Haiti, markets are well supplied and operating normally in most of the country. In Port-au-Prince, insecurity issues disrupted commercial activities and fuel distribution leading to demand declines in the capital city. In September, summer harvests and food assistance supported decreasing local maize and bean prices. Imported rice prices remain stable due to international price stability and food assistance delivery after the August earthquake. Imported commodities such as cooking oil, wheat flour, and sugar further increased from the progressive depreciation of the HTG against the USD and the sociopolitical instability (Figure 12).
Outlook (October 2021 onward)
• In Central America, white maize prices are expected to decline as primera harvests arrive onto markets and improve grain availability. In Guatemala, higher industrial demand and increasing fuel and transportation costs may partially offset the declining seasonal trend. In Nicaragua and Honduras, the ongoing extended lean season due to delayed primera sowing activities will continue to influence prices in localized areas. Formal and informal imports from Mexico will remain stable. Red bean prices are likely to remain stable following seasonal trends. Rice supply and price stability are also expected following international market and regional exchange rate trends.
• In Haiti, above-average import requirements are anticipated for MY 2021/22. Local prices are expected to remain stable, however insecurity and sociopolitical instability might disrupt market operations in urban areas, affecting staple food and fuel supply. The HTG will continue to depreciate against the USD, likely resulting in increasing prices for imported products. FEWS NET will continue to monitor food availability and access conditions in Haiti, which is currently faced with multiple shocks.
Figure 11. September 2021 maize price trends in Central
America
Source: FEWS NET
Figure 12. Average national staple food prices and exchange
• Regional wheat availability and price trends varied acrossCentral Asia in September (Figure 13). Rice availabilityand prices remained stable. As detailed in the Central AsiaRegional Wheat Supply and Market Outlook, localizedwheat deficits are expected to be largely filled throughintra-regional trade. In Yemen, markets remain severelydisrupted by ongoing macroeconomic challenges andconflict.
• In Kazakhstan, wheat production for MY 2021/22 isexpected to slightly lower than the previous year andaverage levels (USDA). Export prices for milling wheattracked international reference prices and increased inSeptember at above 2020 and five-year average levels.Pakistan’s MY 2021/22 wheat production was 27 MMT,eight percent above the previous year’s levels(SUPRACO). Wheat prices increased in September andwere respectively 35 and 47 percent higher than 2020 andfive-year average levels in Lahore.
• In Afghanistan, the 2020/21 agricultural season wasimpacted by below-average rainfall resulting fromLa Niña weather conditions. The domestic wheat importgap is estimated at 40 percent higher than the previousyear and 20 percent higher than average. Wheat priceswere stable in September after increasing in July andAugust following the recent political transition and theresulting pressure on the local economy, including hardcurrency shortages. Wheat flour prices in markets acrossAfghanistan were on average 13 percent above 2020levels and 31 percent above the five-year average.Market activities were constrained in localized areas.
• In Yemen, staple food prices and exchange rate trends varied between internationally recognized government (IRG) areasand Sana’a based authorities (SBA) controlled areas. The largest price increases persisted in governorates within the IRG,where the YER depreciated sharply and persistently in recent months (Figure 14). For example, wheat prices increasedfurther by eight percent in IRG areas compared to August and were 67 percent above 2020 levels (FAO). In September,national fuel prices remained significantly above 2020- and five-year average levels. In areas controlled by the SBA, theresumption of fuel imports through the Red Sea ports since late March has supported improved petrol and dieselavailability and price stability (FAO).
Outlook (October 2021 onward)
• In Kazakhstan, aggregate MY 2021/22 wheat availability and exports are projected to be close to MY 2020/21 levels(USDA). Prices are likely to track international reference prices. In Pakistan, traditionally a wheat exporting country,wheat imports for MY 2021/22 are forecast to remain well above the five-year average levels due to low opening stocksand strong domestic demand. In Afghanistan, wheat flour prices are expected to rise with the depreciation of thecurrency. The above-average wheat import gap projected for MY 2020/21 will be filled mainly with regional wheatimports and complemented with imports from some non-traditional trade partners.
• In Yemen, basic food commodities including wheat flour are expected to remain available across Yemen, due to theresumption of humanitarian and commercial shipments into the country. Food prices will likely increase furtherparticularly in IRG areas as the Aden-based YER is anticipated to trade for over 1,200 per USD in the outlook period,despite attempts by the Central Bank of Yemen (CBY)-Aden to keep the currency afloat.
Figure 13. Wheat grain and flour prices in Central Asia
(USD/kg), January 2016 – September 2021
Note: * Denotes wheat flour prices
Source: WFP/VAME, APK Inform Agency, Kazakhstan, and Pakistan Bureau
of Statistics
Figure 14. Average monthly secondary exchange rates and
wheat flour price trends in Yemen, June 2016 – September 2021
Source: FAO
Recommended citation: FEWS NET: Global Price Watch and Annex, October 29, 2021.
PRICE WATCH ANNEX 1 September 2021 Prices October 29, 2021
Food and Fuel Price Trends Food and Fuel Price Trends
► ▼ ▲
MAIZE
-6 42 53 ▼ ▲ ▲►
SORGHUM
-5 21
-7 -16 -4 ▼ ▼ ►
2 30 48 ►
-4 2 22 ► ►
▼ ► ►
56 ▼ ▲ ▲
SOYBEANS
0 1 0 ► ►
1 -16 1 ► ▼ ►
▲ ▲
RICE
-4 -21 -6 ► ▼ ▼
▲
-4 -5 9
WHEAT
17 21 70 ▲ ▲ ▲
SUGAR
-10 0 2
-1 50 52 ► ▲ ▲
10 21 37 ▲
1 23 42 ► ▲
▲ ▲
2 31 47 ► ▲ ▲
▲ ▲ ▲
-3 24 23 ► ▲ ▲
▲
5 37 58 ▲ ▲ ▲
7 36 55
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States
Agency for International Development or the United States Government.
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries vulnerable to food insecurity. The Price Watch Annex 1 provides prices
and price changes for key markets and staple foods monitored across FEWS NET countries and regions. The prices are final monthly average prices for September 2021. Commodities
included in the Annex are the staples most often consumed by the poor in the indicated market. Additional commodities provided are important commodities consumed in the same
areas or fuel prices that affect food prices. Final monthly average prices are used. The symbols (▲►▼) depict the direction of price changes: the red upward-facing arrow denotes an
increase of five percent or greater. The blue horizontal arrow denotes no change or changes that are smaller than 5 percent, and the green downward-facing arrow denotes price
decreases that are five percent or greater. The three arrows respectively correspond to the percent change in prices this month compared to last month, last year, and the five-year
average. The “-“ symbol indicates that data are not available. The commodities with a reference (W) are wholesale prices. Otherwise, all reported prices are retail.
Sources of prices in West Africa: Information System on agricultural markets (SIMA) Niger, Agricultural Market Observatory (OMA) Mali, Burkina Faso SONAGESS, Information System
market (SIM) in Senegal, Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services (LISGIS) and FEWS NET.
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries vulnerable to food insecurity. The Price Watch Annex 2 provides prices
trends for key markets and staple foods monitored across FEWS NET countries and regions. The commodities with a reference (W) are wholesale prices. Otherwise, all reported
prices are retail.
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.
____________________* imported rice
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Ap
r-1
9
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0
Jul-
20
Oct
-20
Jan
-21
Ap
r-2
1
Jul-
21
USD
/kg
Dori, Burkina Faso N'Djamena, ChadKoutiala, Mali Tillabéri, Niger (W)Matam, Senegal
Figure 24. Imported rice prices in Southern Africa (2016 - 2021)So
uth
ern
Afr
ica
26
Figure 22. White maize prices in Southern Africa (2016 - 2021) Figure 23. Bean and cowpea prices in Southern Africa (2016 - 2021)
Figure 25. Maize meal prices in Southern Africa (2016 - 2021)
East
Afr
ica
Figure 20. Maize prices in surplus areas of East Africa (2016 - 2021) Figure 21. Maize prices in deficit areas of East Africa (2016 - 2021)
Sources of prices in East Africa: Food and Agriculture Market Information System (FAMIS) FSTS/FEWS NET in Somalia, Uganda Bureau of Statistics and Farmgain, Tanzania Ministry of
Industry, Trade and Marketing (MITM), Ethiopia Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE), Ministry of Agriculture of Kenya, Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP), SIFSIA, WFP VAM and
Save the Children.
Sources of prices in Southern Africa: Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Water Development of Malawi, Ministry of Industry, Trade and Marketing (MITM)) of Tanzania, Observatoire du
Riz of Madagascar, Ministry of Agriculture of Mozambique, Central Statistics Office of Zambia, SAFEX, WFP and FEWS NET.
Government.
____________________* dry beans** cowpeas
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Ap
r-1
9
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0
Jul-
20
Oct
-20
Jan
-21
Ap
r-2
1
Jul-
21
USD
/kg
Lilongwe, Malawi Lusaka, Zambia
Harare, Zimbabwe Maputo, Mozambique
Mbeya, Tanzania (W) Randfontein, South Africa
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Ap
r-1
9
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0
Jul-
20
Oct
-20
Jan
-21
Ap
r-2
1
Jul-
21
Titl
e
Arusha, Tanzania (W) Dodoma, Tanzania (W)
Maputo, Mozambique Goma, Virunga (Central), DRC
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Ap
r-1
9
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0
Jul-
20
Oct
-20
Jan
-21
Ap
r-2
1
Jul-
21
USD
/kg
Bahir Dar, Ethiopia (W) Eldoret, Kenya (W)Kampala, Uganda (W) Qorioley, SomaliaSongea, Tanzania (W)
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Ap
r-1
9
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0
Jul-
20
Oct
-20
Jan
-21
Ap
r-2
1
Jul-
21
USD
/kg
Dire Dawa, Ethiopia (W) Jamame, SomaliaJuba, South Sudan Nairobi, Kenya (W)Gode, Ethiopia Rubaho, Burundi
Figure 26. White maize prices in Central America (2016 - 2021) Figure 27. Dry bean prices in Central America (2016 - 2021)
Cen
tral A
meri
ca a
nd
Cari
bb
ean
Figure 28. Imported rice prices in Haiti (2016 - 2021) Figure 29. Black bean prices in Haiti (2016 - 2021)
27
Cen
tral A
sia
Figure 30. Wheat grain prices in Central Asia (2016 - 2021) Figure 31. Wheat flour prices in Central Asia (2016 - 2021)
FEWS NET: Global Price Watch and Annex, October 29, 2021
**
**
**
*
Sources of prices in Central America and Caribbean: Coordination nationale de la sécurité alimentaire (CNSA) and FEWS NET, MAL, Dirección General de Economía Agropecuaria (DGEA),
Sistema de Información de Mercados Productos Agrícolas de Honduras (SIMPAH), Secretaria de Economia de Mexico, and Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganaderia y Alimentacion de Guatemala
(MAGA).
____________________* black beans ** red beans
Sources of prices in Central Asia: Afghanistan, WFP and FEWS NET.
0.00
0.40
0.80
1.20
1.60
2.00
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Ap
r-1
9
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0
Jul-
20
Oct
-20
Jan
-21
Ap
r-2
1
Jul-
21
USD
/kg
Cap Haïtien, Haiti Hinche, HaitiJacmel, Haiti Jérémie, HaitiPort-au-Prince, Haiti
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Ap
r-1
9
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0
Jul-
20
Oct
-20
Jan
-21
Ap
r-2
1
Jul-
21
USD
/kg
Guatemala City, Guatemala (W) San Salvador, El Salvador
San Jose, Costa Rica (W) Tegucigalpa, Honduras
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Ap
r-1
9
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0
Jul-
20
Oct
-20
Jan
-21
Ap
r-2
1
Jul-
21
USD
/kg
Guatemala City, Guatemala Managua, Nicaragua (W)
San Salvador, El Salvador Mexico City, Mexico (W)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Ap
r-1
9
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0
Jul-
20
Oct
-20
Jan
-21
Ap
r-2
1
Jul-
21
USD
/kg
Cap Haïtien, Haiti Hinche, Haiti
Jacmel, Haiti Jérémie, Haiti
Port-au-Prince, Haiti
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Ap
r-1
9
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0
Jul-
20
Oct
-20
Jan
-21
Ap
r-2
1
Jul-
21
USD
/kg
Kabul, Afghanistan Lahore, Pakistan
Mazar-e-Sharif, Afghanistan Saryagash, Kazakhstan
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Ap
r-1
9
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0
Jul-
20
Oct
-20
Jan
-21
Ap
r-2
1
Jul-
21
USD
/kg
Mazar-e-Sharif, Afghanistan Kabul, Afghanistan
Faizabad, Afghanistan National Average, Tajikistan