Population Futures!. Different Assumptions Different Predictions Different Future 3 fundamental factors that affect the size of any population ◦fertility.

Population Futures!

Different Assumptions Different Predictions Different Future

3 fundamental factors that affect the size of any population◦ fertility rate◦ Life expectancy of people◦ The impact migration has on population

Each of these factors is influenced by a combination of economic and social conditions that make population predictions tricky

Wrong assumptions about future fertility trends or immigration policies can dramatically affect the accuracy of a population projection

A number of organizations, produce world population projections◦ They must have SOME idea of how many people there will be in the

future if appropriate planning is to be done

To make such projections, a demographer must be able to predict how many children you (and others your age) will have and how many children your children and their children will have

Include a range of possibilities based on different assumptions about total fertility rate, life expectancy and where appropriate, migration

A range of projections is produced rather than a single number

The most likely future population is called MEDIUM VARIANT, ◦ others are called HIGH OR LOW VARIANT

◦ The future population should almost always be between the high and low variants and most likely close the medium

Example: Projected world population = 7.8 billion (low variant) to 10.8 billion (high), Medium = 9.2

Population Futures We will cover population projections made my International

Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), in order to better understand how populations are changing and how this will affect you decades to come

We will look at population projections for the areas defined as developed nations:

◦ North America (Canada, the United States, Puerto Rico, Guam, Virgin Islands)

◦ Europe and the European parts of the former Soviet Union◦ Japan, Australia, New Zealand

The implications of very low total fertility rates will be felt soonest and most by a few countries◦ In particular, Russia, the counties of Eastern Europe and Japan are facing

the worst Population-Implosion problems.

Looking at this graph◦ Fertility Rate: We can see that fertility rates of the developed world

could easily result in the lowest population projection coming true (meaning a continuous decline total fertility rate)

◦ Life Expectancy: The experts expect there to be slow but steady increase in life expectancy

What are the IIASA projections for the Developed World?

Where is the Population of Developed countries headed?

North AmericaWe can anticipate by

2100, within the life span of your children (or more likely your child) the population of the developed countries could drop by more than 50 % to barely 600 mill.

North America’s population will rise slightly and then decline to about 250 million from the current 330 million

Likely to occur in Canada because our totally fertility rate is significantly lower than that of the U.S

Will this be desirable trend?

Japan, Australia and New ZealandThe population will start out fairly stable at around

150 million before declining to about 70 million 2100

Most of this decline will occur in Japan, which has much lower fertility rate than Australia and New Zealand

Europe and the European Parts of Russia

Will most be affected by this low total fertility rate, which is often called THE BIRTH DEARTH

Europe’s population has already started to decline slightly◦ This decline will accelerate throughout the century as the children of today’s smaller

families have small families of their own ◦ Europe’s projected population of about 290 mill for the year of 2100 is only about the

same number of people who live in Russia, Germany and France combined today.

What are the implications of the Birth Dearth?

Birth Dearth= low total fertility rate

Only since 1990s, have serious concerns over a possible population implosion surfaced.

Scientists are working to understand the effects these declining populations will have

Remember that this is not a question of whether things will be better or worse, but rather , it will just be socially, economically and environmentally different

The challenge will come in how to handle the change from a world where population growth has been the norm for a couple of centuries, to one where the norm is population decline

5 Implications of the Birth Dearth

1. Family Structures

2. Aging Populations

2. Labour Shortages

4. Economic Effects

5. Shift in World Power

Get into groups of 6

Review your assigned “Birth Dearth Implication”

Write on a piece of chart paper:◦ What affect your implication has on the world◦ Also, the reasons why you think your implication is the most

important and will have the greatest impact on the world.

Everyone will present their implication

From what you learned, on a score card you will RANK the implications◦ #1 being the most important to #6 being the least important.

The Task

Benefit of the Birth Dearth for the World

There is considerable food environmental news attached to the idea of smaller-than-anticipated world population

Fewer people mean◦ less resources used◦ fewer waste produce like car emissions, sold waste and

air and water pollution

Since the population decline will occur in the worlds wealthiest countries, there will be fewer people who use the most resources and produce the most waste

We can understand the impact of these changes by looking at the demographic assumptions that underlie predictions about climate change in the future◦Since the prediction is 11.3 bill for 205, if there

are 7.9 billion instead, there will be an obvious difference in the amount of global warming

Why is the Birth Dearth Happening? Many reasons why birth rates can decline sharply What is most critical in ongoing decline of birth rates= the

changing women in society

Many aspects to this:◦ Young women today are better educated than young women in

previous generations. Women with more education typically have fewer children

◦ Many women are choosing a career outside the home◦ Choosing to work for more years◦ They have more control over their lives than in traditional

societies◦ Marry later◦ More likely to divorce these days◦ May choose not to marry at all◦ Greater access to effective birth control

BIRTH DEARTH is occurring as a result of the decisions made by individuals about the direction they want their lives to take (just like your lives)◦You are likely at the point in you life when your

stating to make decision hat will affect your future career and family life ( Next year- schooling?)

Difficult because this idea is so new to us Obviously to prevent it from happening, people in developed

countries would need to be encourage to have more children

Policies designed to do this are called “pronatalist” strategies Examples:

◦ Pay cash or offer tax benefits to parents◦ Baby bonuses◦ Child tax credits (for families of lower income)

These small payments have had no demonstrable impact on birth rates!’

Little evidence that the ‘pronatalist” strategies encourage higher fertility rates. ◦ New strategies are being considered

Can we prevent a Population Implosion?