Fertility regulation population dynamics & national development

FERTILITY REGULATIONPOPULATION DYNAMICS & NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT – EMPHASIS NIGERIA

BY

DR. O. A. ROBERTS

OBGYN DEPT.

UCH

IBADAN

POPULATION DYNAMICS & NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT – EMPHASIS NIGERIA Population dynamics:• Study of the size, composition, distribution and growth of

populations.• Nigeria’s Demographic profile(2008 NDHS):• Land area = 923,768sq km• Crude pop density/sq km = 96• Rural/Urban ratio = 70/30• Crude birth rate (%) = 40• Crude Death rate (%) = 16• Population doubling time = 23 years.

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POPULATION DYNAMICS & NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT – EMPHASIS NIGERIA

• Nigeria’s population = 150 million.• Rate of Growth = 3.3% annually.

3 Factors causing high fertility in Nigeria: Early commencement of marriage & childbearing. ↑proportion of sexually active♀, exposed to pregnancy risk

but with low uptake of contraception. ↓ of spacing between births, 2o to shorter breastfeeding

months.

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Adolescent childbearing has –ve health & socioeconomic consequences.

Demographic consequences operate through fertility rather than mortality.

↑Population growth rate is due to younger average childbearing age (even if TFR is the same).

In societies where childbearing is postponed till age 30, completed family size is reduced for physiological (becoming infertile) & volitional reasons.

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• The following examples of population growth with six children per couple compare generation times of 20 years and 30 years:

• 2 -------------6 -------------18 -------------54(20 years) (20 years) (20 years) 80 people in 60 years.

• 2 -----------------6------------------ 18 (30 years) (30 years) 26 people in 60 years.

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Increasing the generation interval from 20 to 30 years reduces the population growth from 80 to 26 during a 60 year period

A percent decrease of 67.5%. A longer generation interval significantly slows the growth of a

population.

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o The Age structure of any population is determined by its history of Fertility, Mortality, Migration & Emigration.

o If # of births + # of immigrants = # of deaths + # of emigrants (Zero annual pop growth rate).

o In Nigeria (as well as other dev. Nations), the Pyramid has a wider base than the middle or top.

o Half of the population are aged < 25. o In developed countries the profile is nearly vertical. o This is due to fertility not mortality.

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• AGE STRUCTURE

• < 1 year = 4.4

• < 4 years = 18.0

• < 14 years = 25.6

• 15–64 years = 49.6

• > 65 years = 2.4

Nigeria has a young population Nigeria has a young population compared to more advanced countriescompared to more advanced countries

-2 0 -1 5 -1 0 -5 0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0

Male Female

-2 0 -1 5 -1 0 -5 0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0

Male Female

19991999

0

80 +80 +7575--79797070--74746565--69696060--64645555--59595050--54544545--49494040--44443535--39393030--34342525--29292020--24241515--19191010--1414

55--9900--44

51020-2 0 -1 5 -1 0 -5 0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0

Male Female

-2 0 -1 5 -1 0 -5 0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0

Male Female

2000200080 +80 +

7575--79797070--74746565--69696060--64645555--59595050--54544545--49494040--44443535--39393030--34342525--29292020--24241515--19191010--1414

55--9900--44

Percent of populationPercent of population15 5 10 2015 051020

Percent of populationPercent of population15 5 10 2015

NIGERIANIGERIA UNITED KINGDOMUNITED KINGDOM

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UNMET NEED FOR FAMILY PLANNING

• The proportion of fecund women who wish to space their next birth or to limit childbearing altogether but not using contraception

• These women are considered to have an unmet need for family planning.

• As at 2008, unmet needs was 20%

• Spacing = 13%• Limiting = 7%

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When schedules of mortality & fertility remain constant, the age distribution in that population is constant = Stable population.

If death rate = Fertility rate, then growth rate is zero & the population is stationary.

Life expectation (E)= Total person-yrs lived No of births (B) Total person-years lived by the pop.=E× B

If annual births are equal & mortality constant, age distribn = same as Life table

With ↑fertility populatn momentum is greater

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• In National populations of Western Europe a demographic transition was noticed in which a ↓fall in mortality was followed by a ↓in fertility but this was not always the case

• Reasons: Industrial revolution & ↑in living standards, education & Public health measures.

• The lowering of fertility was also linked to indiv. Decisions on adoption of family limitation.

• Nigeria has not reached this phase.

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• The 2003 (3rd National survey) Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) is based on a nationally representative sample of 7,000 households – all ♀ 15-49 & all ♂ 15-59 1n 1/3 of the households were interviewed.

SUMMARY:

• Total fertility rate = 5.7 (rural 6.3 vs urban 4.7).

• Highest in the North lowest in South.

• ↑ideal no. of children (wanted fert. rate) is 6.7 for all ♀ (8.6 & 10.6 all♂, Married resp)

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Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) Urban Rural Total

• Mean birth interval 31 months

• ♀age15-19 childbearing 17% 30% -

• Current use of FP method - - 13%

• Any modern method - - 10%

• Source of FP methods(Private vs Public) 58% vs 23%.

• Unmet need for FP (spacers/limiters) 20%13


Urban Rural Total• Infant mort. rate/1000 ↑ 81 121 100• <5 mort. rate/1000 ↑ - - 201• ↓Vacc. rate children 12-23m - - 13%• % of <5 breastfed 97%• Median duration any breastfeeding 18.6mnths• ’’ ’’ Exclusive ’’ 1/2mnth.• % of stunted children 41%• % of wasted children 14%• % of underweight children 23% 14


Maternal care.

•% of ♀ who received some ANC 63%

•No. of births occurring at home 66%

•% of women without education 42%

•% of men without education 22%

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THANK

YOU

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Fertility regulation population dynamics & national development

Health & Medicine