Earth's energy imbalance (EEI): current knowledge and future challenges Dr. Matt Palmer
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Earth's energy imbalance (EEI):
current knowledge and future
challenges
Dr. Matt Palmer
EEI must be central to our thinking around
climate change:
EEI must be central to our thinking around
climate change:
• Most fundamental and robust measure of the rate
of global change
EEI must be central to our thinking around
climate change:
• Most fundamental and robust measure of the rate
of global change
• Key to projections of future sea level rise
(the time history of forcing matters)
EEI must be central to our thinking around
climate change:
• Most fundamental and robust measure of the rate
of global change
• Key to projections of future sea level rise
(the time history of forcing matters)
• Observations of EEI must be sustained and
extended to the deep ocean
For a stable climate:
incoming energy = reflected energy + emitted energy
Greenhouse gases reduce emitted energy
Global warming is the result of excess solar
energy accumulating in the Earth System
Global warming is the result of excess solar
energy accumulating in the Earth System
The RATE of global warming is defined by EEI
von Schuckmann et al [submitted]
von Schuckmann et al [submitted]
Ocean heat content (OHC) accounts for > 90% of EEI
von Schuckmann et al [submitted]
von Schuckmann et al [submitted]
The symptoms of Earth’s energy imbalance
Credit: John Kennedy
Credit: John Kennedy
Credit: John Kennedy
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Credit: John Kennedy
Palmer and McNeall [2014]
Palmer and McNeall [2014]
Temperature is a poor indicator of EEI over a decade
Palmer and McNeall [2014]
OHC change is a reliable indicator of EEI over a decade
Palmer and McNeall [2014]
Credit: Simon Good
Observations of OHC: historical ocean profiles 0-700m
Observations of OHC: The Argo array of profiling floats
Observations of OHC: The Argo array of profiling floats
Roemmich et al [2015]
von Schuckmann et al [submitted]
Observations of OHC: The Argo array of profiling floats
Loeb et al [2012]
Observations of EEI: Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy
System (CERES, NASA)
Net Energy
Outgoing long-wave energy Reflected short-wave energy
Credit: NASA
Observations of EEI: Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy
System (CERES, NASA)
What about the
future..?
Surface temperature rise under climate change
Ocean heat content (OHC) rise under climate change
EEI and OHC must be central to our thinking
around climate change:
• Most fundamental and robust measure of the rate
of global change
• Key to projections of future sea level rise
(the time history of forcing matters)
• Observations of EEI must be sustained and
extended to the deep ocean (for OHC)
Questions..?
Thanks to:
Dan Bernie, Simon Good,
Jonathan Gregory, John Kennedy
Chris Roberts, Kevin Trenberth,
Karina von Schuckmann
Additional slides..
How do Argo
floats work?
Church et al [2011]
OHC change accounts for 30-40% global sea level rise
Church et al [2011] IPCC AR5 [Church et al, 2013]
OHC change accounts for 30-40% global sea level rise
IPCC AR5 Summary for Policy Makers
Symptoms of Earth’s energy imbalance..
IPCC AR5 Summary for Policy Makers
Symptoms of Earth’s energy imbalance..
IPCC AR5 [Myhre et al, 2013]
Radiative forcings give rise to Earth’ energy imbalance
Observations AND climate models tell us we must measure the deep ocean in
order to reliably track EEI and global sea level rise
Purkey and Johnson [2010]
Key points #1:
1. Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) is the most fundamental aspect of
climate change science (and should be central to our thinking around
this topic)
2. The various aspects of observing climate change are *symptoms* of
the EEI
3. On multi-decadal timescales surface temperature rise (most used
metric of global change?) responds to climate (radiative) forcings
4. However, on decadal timescales there is little or no correspondence
between EEI and trends in surface temperature. Thus, much of the
discussion around the “hiatus” may be missing the point (?)
5. This is because the ocean is a dynamic fluid, and can re-arrange heat.
Total ocean heat content constitute > 90% of planetary heating
associated with EEI
Key points #2:
6. Highlight two critical (and highly complementary) advances in Earth
system observations: (i) CERES netTOA measurements; (ii) Argo
observations of OHC
7. Briefly describe the strengths and weaknesses of each: (i) excellent
coverage and information on radiative components, but unknown
absolute value; (ii) high absolute accuracy but large sampling “noise”
and under-sampled regions (ice covered, shallow seas, deep ocean)
8. EEI and OHC behave very differently to surface temperature under
future climate scenarios. Show RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. for surface
temperature and global thermal expansion (sea level).
9. MUST consider EEI and it’s evolution in our thinking
communication around climate change. Importance of maintaining
CERES, Argo and extending the Ocean Observing system.
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