Monthly Magzine- September 2011-Mansukh Investment and Trading Solutions..

8/4/2019 Monthly Magzine- September 2011-Mansukh Investment and Trading Solutions..

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Monthly Update From Mansukh (For Private Circulation Only) Issue: September 201

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1 2 3 4) 5 6 7 8. . . . . .

Market Global Economy Technical Fundamental Market CommodityI:: Auxiliary0 Review Snapshot Update Picks Picks Tutorials Section Section0

Boisterous benchmarks showcased yet another enthusiastic

performance on the last day of the month rallying well over

one and half a percentage points and breaking psychological

levels on the northbound journey, ahead of the two day holiday.

Though the session was highly volatile yet the benchmarks

managed to fervently surge to higher levels as investors continuedto hunt for fundamentally strong but oversold bargains. The BSE's

thirty share Sensex has amassed over eight hundred points since the

start of new week

while Nifty has

gone on to retrace

the crucial 5,000

bastion by

garnering over two

hundred fifty

points in last two

session.

Sentiments

remained euphoric

right from the

"""""------" initial moments of

trade as apart from the spillover effect of Monday's rally, the strong

overnight rally on Wall Street as well as in European marketsbuoyed local sentiments. On the domestic front, the largely in line

GDP growth numbers showed that Indian economy grew at 7.7% in

the April-June period, the slowest pace since 2010, confirming fears

of a slowdown mainly due to the poor performance of the

manufacturing sector.

Meanwhile August series futures and options contract expiry day

turned out tobe an extremely disappointing affair for the Indian stock

markets as the benchmarks capitulated to the unrelenting selling

pressure amid extremely high volatility. The plunge in domestic

indices appeared even shoddier because of the fact that major stock

markets across the globe staged enthusiastic performances amid the

tentative improvement in investors' risk appetite. Post the ugly

inflation numbers, expectations that the RBImay prolong its hawkish

liquidity tightening stance and hike interest rates for the twelfth time

since March 2010, remained another reason behind the onslaught

across the board in the local markets. Besides, local sentiments were

also undermined by the reports released by Metrological department

that India' s monsoon rains were 8% below normal in the week to

August 24, losing momentum from 26per cent above normal showers inthe

previous week.

On the F&O front, for the August series the benchmarks got badly

butchered by over 12%, the worst series performance since October 2008.

The broader markets too got clobbered out of shape as the Midcap index

got bludgeoned by 11% while the Smallcap index got pulverized by 15%.

Among sectoral movers, the Information Technology index remained the

Volume &Volatility Index (Nifty - Aug 2011)

2500 _ Cash(Rsbn)_ F&O(Rsb --Volatility% 25

2000 20

1500 15

1000 10

500 ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ 8 5

O~~~=-L+~--~~~~~~~~~~~~=-L+O

IS-Aug 19-Aug 22-Aug 23-Aug 24-Aug 25-Aug 26-Aug 29-Aug 30-Aug

Visit www.moneysukh.com

or sms 'mansukh' to 54545

Call Put Analysis (Nifty Sep 2011 ser ies)

70 ~ j; ~

• Call • Put

01 in Lakhs

60

50

40

30

20

10o

4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400

top laggard by plummeting 19.6% followed by Metal which slipped 17%

while the Bankex counter was down 15%. From the expiry perspective,

market wide rollover of 62.15%, was below the three months average of

67.17% while Nifty rollovers were at 54.9%, higher than 3month average

of 51.6%. Sectorally, the power, finance, auto and FMCG space witnessed

high rollover into the September series while stocks from the technology,

pharrna, telecom and fertilizers space are observing relatively low rollovers.

Among individual stocks, vast rollovers into September series were

witnessed in index heavyweights like Cairn (81.7%), Yes Bank (77%),

Reliance Power (76%), Reliance Capital (76%) and Reliance Infra (75%)

while low rollovers were seen instocks like Tata Chemicals (34.5%), AndhraBank (35.5%),Sun TV(41%),Patni (43%)and Aurobindo Pharma (43%).

make more, for sure. MMANSUKHInvestment & Trading Solutions

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GLOBAL SNAPSHOT make more, for sure. MMANSUKHInvestment & Trading Solutions

Facing pressure tokeepmoney printing in check, U.S. central bankers are

mulling a modest approach to stimulus that would give the struggling

economy only a tiny boost - if it helps at all. After two rounds of bond

purchases that have pumped $2.3 tri ll ion into the banking system, the

Federal Reserve could buy long-term Treasury debt while selling short-

term securities it already holds. The idea, outlined by Federal Reserve

Chairman Ben Bernanke in July, would be to lower long-term interest

rates without increasing the money supply. That in theory could spur

home purchases by lowering benchmark ratesfor mortgages. It could also

make it cheaperfor companies toborrow so they can buy more equipment.

The Fed has already slashed overnight interest rates to near zero.

Earlier this month, it said it thought it would keep rates low for at

least the next two years. Of course, it could still summon more

dollars and inject them into the system, but higher inflation and

political pressure create an imposing hurdle for such bold action.

Meanwhile we believe The Fed would likely launch some kind of

bond-trading plan despite concerns it might not yield big results,

analysts say. Every bit of growth helps. Yet some are doubtful the

Fed can do much at all by pushing interest rates lower. Despite all

the money given tobanks, lending standards have tightened since

the financial crisis

The USmarket closed higher on Friday and managed tobreak the

four week losing streak. Though the indices traded sideways in

early trade but finished sharply higher at the end on Bernanke

remarks. Fed Chairman Bernanke offered no new measures to

stimulate the economy but ina widely anticipated speech noted the

strength of the US economy and said that recent shocks have not

fundamentally altered the economy. Bernanke also did not

announce any new measures to stimulate the economy and

focused his comments on the fiscal policy and not on monetary

policy. He stated that the Federal Open Market Committee would

consider its options at itsnext meeting in late September.

Themarket wavered after the gross domestic product was revised

lower in the second quarter and the consumer confidence index

was near the lows last seen inMay 1980. Investors feel that the US

economy is on the brink of recession as consumer confidence

declined and retail inflation stays ahead of market expectations.

Many segments of the economy have not recovered since 2008and

continue to languish for more than ten quarters ina row.

According to data released by the USLabor Department, first-time

claims for US unemployment benefits increased in the last week.

The report showed that 417,000 Americans filed new claims for

unemployment benefits in the week ended August 20 an increase

of5,000from the previous week's revised 412,000new claims.

The Congressional Budget Office released a report forecasting a

$1.3 billion federal budget deficit for 2011, the third-largest

shortfall inthe past 65years, asthe United States isfacing profound

budgetary and economic challenges. Meanwhile, the three rating

agencies reaffirmed the AAA status of German debt and France,

Spain and Italy extended ban onshort selling banks.

u.s. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet u.S. Unemployment Claims, Year to Date

s trillions30

Lehman

colapse2_5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0_5

0.0

2006 2007 20[18

OE2

2009 2010 2011

Source- Thomson Reuters D"",.,stre""n, Federa Reserve Reuters graphcJStephen Cup

Source: reutersindia.com

New cla ims for unemployment insurance rose more than expected las t week to 408 000 For the

week ended August 6, ccntrnumq claims increased to 3.7 mil lion and the insured rate held steady

at 2.9 percent

Thousands

'"0--------,------Mllions Percent

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"Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till itgoes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it."

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Investment & Trading Solutions

make more, for sure. ECONOMY UPDATEMANSUKH

India's current account def icit (CAD) declined to2.6% of the Gross Domestic

Product (GDP) in 2010-11 f rom 2.8% in the 2009-10, while the capital

account surplus was 3.9% in 2009-10 and 3.5% in 2010-11, Minister of State

for Finance Nama Narain Meena said. By adding further the mini ster said,

' the capital account surplus was, therefore, essentia lly f inancing the CAD. '

While CAD represents the difference in inflows and outflows of foreign

exchange ofa country, the current account surplus happens when investment

from the country inforeign assets is greater than inves tment from abroad in

domestic assets.

The intervention by the Reserve Bank of India in the foreign exchange

market has also been minimal in recent months. 'Hence, capital flows

are not a challenge for the forex and monetary policy management) the

minister said. For the current financial year, government is aiming to

reduce the CAD below the 2010-11 level. However, meeting this targetwill be difficult given the recent developments in the global economy.

The minister said that the recent global developments have impacted

the Indian capital mar kets.

Country's macro-economic fundamentals may get worsen if the global

economy slips back to recession, because the current financial health of

government don't allow it to offer stimulus packages like it has given

during the 2008 global financial meltdown. The uncertainties in the

global economy have increased after the downgrade of the United

States credit rating and debt crisis in European nations.

After releasing the RBI 's Annual report, RBI deputy governor Subir

Gokarn said 'the fiscal space to provide counter-cyclical policy is

limited compared towhat itwas in 2008)by adding further he said 'alot

will hinge on the stand that Fed governor Bernanke takes.

The government is likely to exceed its f iscal deficit target of 4.6% of

Gross Domestic Product for the current financial year on the back of

subsidies on the petroleum products and fertilizers surge. And the

welfare spending on employment programmes such as Mahatma

Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme are also

expected to put limitation on government financial health, if the

revenue collection plunges below the expected level due to slowdown

on economic growth.

ECONOMY UPDATES: In the first quarter of the FY12 India's

economy grew 7.7% against 9.3% in QIFY11. The Farm sector grew

3.9% compared with 2.4% in the year-ago quarter. Manufacturing

grew 7.2%, compared with 10.6% ayear ago. Mining output grew 1.8%,

compared with 7.4% a year ago, Financing, insurance, real estate and

business service grew 9.1%versus 9.8% a year ago. Construction grew

1.2% versus 7.7% a year ago. The economy grew 8.5% on year in

2010/11 compared with an annual growth rate of 8.0 percent in

2009/10. The economy grew almost as per the expectation but on the

other hand, economy isalso exposed to global economic developments

mainly from European regions and United States

The apex regulatory body of Indian banking system, RBI has raised

rates 11 times since March 2010 to curb the inflexibly high inflation,

which ishovering around 9.22% in July is also not seems to easing in

near term. Industrial output grew 8.8% in June, However, above the

forecasted levels helped by strong capital goods production isreinforcing the case for a further rate hikes at the RBI's policy review

going to be held on 16 Sept 2011. Inflation eased in July although the

still-high headline number and persistent price pressures in

manufactured goods raised the odds that policy will have to stay tight

in the economy despite the rising risks to growth. Last week RBIalso

warned against accepting high inflation as the "new normal" and also

said that the industrial sector outlook for country still remained

indecisive due tohigh input cost and week global conditions.

India Q1FY12 GDP up 7.7% YoY

FY09-10 YoY%Chg

INDIA'S CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

Q4 FYll Q4FY10 ~oY%Ch! FY10-ll

Merchandise trade balance -29.9 -31.5 1.6 -130.5

Invisible net 24.5 18.5 6 86.2

Services 14.5 8.1 6.4 47.7

Transfers 13.8 12.6 1.2 53.4

Income -3.8 -2.1 -1.7 -14.9

Current ACbalance -5.4 -13 7.6 -44.3

Source: RBIdata

-118.4 -12.1

80 6.2

20 ",ercen chang~ rompre"iQ Jsyear P ercen change rompre:Vf()usyear 120

::~:~~' ~~~~':o rIP'i!"~ Tfl ,

35.7 12

52.3 1.1

-8 -6.9

-38.4 -5.9

Figures in $ billion

Source: reutersindia.com

"Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered."

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TECHNICAL PICKS make more, for sure. MMANSUKH

Sintex Industries islikely to spend around Rs 1,100crore on

its upcoming capacity expansion projects across India. The

company plans to invest Rs 250 crore on facilities for custom

moulding, Rs 220 crore on prefab, Rs 300-350 crore on

monolithic, Rs 150 crore on captive power and Rs 50crore on

textiles, between 2011-12 and 2013-14. Most of Sintex's

investments will be at its manufacturing in Gujarat,

Himachal Pradesh, Nagpur, Kolkata, Salem and Uttar

Pradesh. Despite a slowdown in construction activity and

the resultant low cement dispatches, Sintex growth

continues aspre-fab structures use little cement. Sintex isnot

a hard-core infrastructure development company. Its

monolithic products are used in mass housing, railway,

government staff quarters and defence, among others. The

Company's net profit for the quarter ended June 30, 2011 has

surged by 18.97% at Rs 69.13 crore as compared to Rs 58.11

crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2010. Its total Income has

increased by 6.12% at Rs 574.26 crore for the quarter as

compared to Rs 541.13 crore for the corresponding quarter of

the previous year.

On technical perspective, after taking significant correction

from the highs of Rs 190, scrip has shown crucial resistance

below Rs134 level. At current juncture scrip has the potential

to recover from the current level as its technical indicators i.e.

RSI and MACD also revealed some technical pull back in

near term. Hence we recommended 'Buy' in this stock.

A decent increase of about 43.77% in the sales to Rs. 3511.70

millions was observed for the quarter ended June 2011. The

sales figure stood at Rs. 2442.60 millions during the year-ago

period. The Net Loss for the quarter ended June 2011 is Rs.-

100.70 millions as compared to Net Loss of Rs. -248.80

millions of corresponding quarter ended June

20100perating Profit saw a handsome growth to 371.90

millions from 103.00 millions in the quarter ended June 2011.

Meanwhile Credit rating agency, CARE reaffirmed the

assigned 'CARE Al +' rating to the Commercial Paper (CP)

programme (standalone) issue of Raymond for Rs 250.00

crore. The company's ability to improve its profitability in

the scenario of volatility in the currency markets, raw

material prices and increasing competition are the key rating

sensitivities. The ratings continue to derive strength from

the dominant position of Raymond in domestic worsted

suiting fabrics market, well-established operations, presence

across the textile value chain, bouquet of well-established

brands and widespread distribution network.

On technical viewpoint, stock has shown upward bias after

showing double bottom formation around Rs 319. In close

proximity we believe stock iswell poised to move in upward

direction. Moreover it's RSI and other technical indicators

stands in the positive territory where possibility of

turnaround couldn't be rule out. Hence investors are advised

to BUY this stock for a price target ofRs375-400 innear term.

SINT EX IND UST RIE S L TD

SCRIP NAME TRIGGER PRICE TARGETl TARGET 2 STOP LOSS DURATION

SINTEX 135·140 155 165 125 1 Month

R AY MO ND L TD

SCRIP NAME TRIGGER PRICE TARGETI TARGET2

330-340 375 400 310 1MonthAYMOND

"The real measure of your wealth is how much you'd be worth if you lost all your money."

.. ••k·· ~. . . . .- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - § ." .~ a e r = a o. = = .= E



MMANSUKH make more, for sure. FUNDAMENTAL PICKSInvestment & Trading Solutions

Raymond Ltd

Raymond Ltd incorporated in 1925 is a part of global conglomerate

Raymond Group. Raymond is a leading Indian textile major, it

produces wool-blended and premium polyester viscose worsted

suiting. With 750 retail stores across the country Raymond isvertically

and horizontally integrated to provide customers total textile solutions

and only few companies globally have such a diverse product range of

nearly 20,000 varieties of worsted suiting to cater to customers across

age groups, occasions and styles. Company also manufactures world's

finest fabrics from wool to wool-blended worsted suiting to specialty

ring denims as well as high value shirting. Apart from textile business,

company has also diversified in engineering and aviation. With the

market share of 30%, Raymond isalso a largest manufacturer of steel

files in the world.

Financials: In QIFY12, Raymond has reported a decent increase of

about 43.77% in the Net Sales to Rs. 346.23 crore, operating profit ofthe

company also phenomenally jumped 2511% to Rs 23.63 crore.

Company has reported the Net Loss Rs 10.07 crore as compared to Net

Loss of Rs. 24.88 crore of corresponding quarter ended June 2010. The

operating margin (OPM) of the company jumped to 723bps to 6.82%

from same quarter of the last year. The Net Loss margin of the company

also decline by 742bps to -2.91%from -10.33% in corresponding quarter

ofthe last year.

INVESTMENT GROUNDS

Investing Rs 2bn to enhance the capacity of textile &garments business ...

Raymond is investing around Rs 500 crore to expand its textile and

garments business. Actually, in the phase-I Raymond will invest

around Rs 200 crore in its three plants in Karnataka, Gujarat and

Maharashtra to increase the capacity of its suitings and shirtings

business, company planned toincrease the capacity of suitings from 40

million metres per annum to 105 million metres and shirtings from 15

million metres to 55million metres.

Scaling new stores &launching new products strategically ...

Raymond, which iscurrently running -750 stores cross the country, is

further expanding footprints of its retail stores in other cities like, tier-

III, IV and V, in QIFY12, company has opened 19 new stores in these

smaller cities. Company has planned to add around 100 stores in FY12.

However, company has also closed eight stores during the same

period. During the first quarter of the FY12, company has also

launched a new brand "Makers" fabric on regional basis, in fact

Raymond istrying to attract consumers from the unbranded to cheaper

branded fabrics. However currently company is retailing its new

product only in east only India but in future it will expand through out

the country.

Target Price: 395

Ready toenter inforgings segmentthrough engineering business unit ...

As a part of expansion plans Raymond is also mulling to expand its

engineering business, Raymond is looking for opportunities to enter

the forgings segment during this year. Company will supply forged

machined components to original equipment makers, even as it

expands its existing starter rings and flex plates businesses. To expand

this business company can also follow the acquisition strategy.

Raymond has targeted to achieve a cumulative turnover of Rs 1,200

crore in the next five years.

Disposal of land will reduce all the debts . ..

Raymond has -120 acres of land in Thane, and company is looking

diverse options to sale it completely or partially at different stages.

Actually, Raymond has consolidated net debt of +Rs 12billion and the

sale of this prime land could generate huge cash of - Rs 15billion for the

company, this much of cash can completely reduce the whole debt of

the company which is positive for the company from the cash flow

point ofview.

Quarter & Year Ended QlFY12 QlFY11 %Chg FY11

Net Sales (Rs Cr) 346.23 240.93 43.7 1496.46

Operating Profit (Rs Cr) 23.63 -0.98 2511.2 249.85

OPM (%) (Chg in bps) 6.82 -0.41 723 16.70

PAT (Rs Cr) -10.07 -24.88 59.5 -100.19

PATM (%) (Chg i n bps) -2.91 -10.33 742 -6.70

EPS(Rs) -1.64 -4.05 59.5 -16.32Dividend (%) 0 0 0 10

Equity (Rs Cr) 61.38 61.38 0.0 61.38

Data Matrix as on 30.08.2011 Key Financial Ratios (TIM)

CMP (Rs) 349.25 PIE (x) TIM 0

52- Week High (Rs) 458 P/BV (x) TTM 2.03

52- Week Low (Rs) 245.1 EV/TIM EBIDTA(x) 10.28

Latest Book Value (Rs) 171.96 EV/TIM Sales (x) 2.1

Face Value (Rs) 10 MCap/TTM Sales( x) 1.34

Total No of Shares (Cr) 6.14 Total Debt/Equity (x) 1.18

Avg. Monthly Vol. (Lakhs) 12.57 ROA(%) -4.42

Market Cap (Rs Cr) 2144 ROE (%) -9.37

Beta (Sensex) 1.29 ROCE (%) -2.15

Industry PIE 11.56 Dividend Yield (%) 0.29

Major Shareholders as on 30 June 2011

Promoters (%) 39.09 Fils & GDRs (%) 7.68

Non-Institutions (%) 25.02 Dlls (%) 28.21

"Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for ten years ..rr

- ~".;ake~".;ore~



MARKET TUTORIALS make more, for sure. MMANSUKHInvestment & Trading Solutions

Taking further to our tutorials on option strategy, we are now going

todiscuss the strategy on" Covered Call" in this edition, Covered call

is widely viewed as a conservative strategy, and professional

investors write covered calls to increase their investment income.

However, individual investors can also benefit from this simple,

effective option strategy by taking the time to learn it. Bydoing so,

investors will add to their investment fund and give themselves

more investment opportunities. Let us look at the covered call and

examine ways that you canuse itin your portfolio.

What isa Covered Call?

Anoptions strategy whereby an investor holds a long position in an

asset and writes (sells)call options onthat same asset inan attempt to

generate increased income from the asset. This is often employed

when an investor has a short-term neutral view on the asset and for

this reason holds the asset long and simultaneously has a short

position via the option togenerate incomefrom the option premium.

Thisisalso known asa "buy-write".

Profita bility from Covered Calls

For the right tobuy shares at a predetermined price inthe future, the

buyer pays the seller ofthe calloption a premium. The premium isa

cashfeepaid tothe sellerby the buyer onthe day the option issold. It

is the seller's money to keep, regardless of whether the option is

exercised.

When &How toSell aCovered Call

Suppose you have sold a covered callthen you will get money today

inexchange for some ofyour stock's future upside. And for the right

timing & strategy just take an Example, let's assume you pay Rs 50

per share for your stock and think that itwill rise toRs60within one

year and simultaneously you'd be willing to sellat Rs 55within six

months, knowing you were giving up further upside, but making a

nice short-term profit. Inthis scenario, selling a covered call onyour

stock position might bean attractive option foryou.

The strategy can be used as after looking at the stock's option chain,

you find Rs55, six-month call option selling for Rs4 per share. You

could sell the Rs 55 call option against your shares, which you

purchased atRs50and hoped tosell atRs60within ayear. Ifyou did

this, you would obligate yourself tosell the shares at Rs 55within the

next sixmonths iftheprice rose tothis amount. Youwould still get to

keep your Rs 4 in premiums plus the Rs 55from the sale of your

shares, for the grand total ofRs59 (an 18%return) over six months.

On the other hand, ifthe stock falls toRs40,for instance, you have to

6 Cov ere d C all S pre ad

4

2 Max profit

VI 0VI0

2 55 60 65-... . . .;: 40. . .0.. 6

8

10

12

stock price

bear Rs10 loss on your original position. However, because you get

to keep the Rs4 option premium from the sale of the calloption, the

total lossisRs6per share and not Rs10.

Advantages and Risks ofCovered Call

Selling covered call options can help offset downside risk or add to

upside return, but it also means you trade the cash you get today

from the option premium for any upside gains beyond Rs 59 per

share over the next sixmonths, including Rs4 inpremiums. In other

words, ifthe stock ends above Rs59,then you comeoutworse than if

you had simply held the stock. However, if the stock ends the six-

month period anywhere below Rs 59per share, then you come out

ahead ofwhere you would havebeen ifyou had not sold the covered

call.While, alternatively the risk involved in covered calls is that, as

long asyou have the short option position, you have tohold onto the

shares, otherwise you will be holding a naked call, which has

theoretically unlimited loss potential should the stock rise.

Therefore, ifyouwant to sellyour shares before expiration, you must

buy back the option position, which will cost you extra money and

someofyour profit.

Summary

Covered calls strategy can be used as a way to minimize your cost

basis or togain incomefrom your shares, even ifthe stock itself does

not pay any dividend. As such, this strategy can serve you as an

additional way to profit from stock ownership. Asoptions have risk,

be sure to study all of your choices, as well as their pros and cons,

before making a decision. For reading more strategies on options,

please followour forth-coming monthly editions.

"The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them"



Investment & Trading Solutions

make more, for sure. COMMODITY SECTIONMANSUKH

T he r is e in th e g old p ric e h as c on tin ue d a nd s ho wn a b re ak u p a bo ve th e tr en d

li ne . T h is h as a lw a ys b ee n a s ig n t ha t t he g o ld , s il ve r p r ic es h av e' s pi ke d' . T hi s

h as g en er al ly b ee n a s ig na l t o b e r e ad y t o t a ke p ro fi t s a nd b e r e ad y t o g o b ac k i n

l owe r down.

O ver th e la st f ew w eeks g old h as r un a hea d b ut it h as s een b rief a nd sh allo w

c or re ct io ns u nt il t hi s l as t w e ek w h en t ra de rs a nd s pe cu la to r s c au se d a 's pi ke '

t o $1 . 910 , b e fo r e an e qua ll y d rama ti c f al l b a ck t o $1,716. This is n ot th e s o rt o f

c or re ct io n w e a re d is cu ss in g h er e. T h e s pe ed a nd e xt en t o f t he c or r ec ti on d id

n ot r efle ct th e m a r ke t f un da me nta ls . S o w e m us t a sk , " Ar e th e c u rr en t b uy er s

a ls o po t en ti al s e ll er s ?" I n d e ve lo p ed ma rke ts , t he c onc e pt t ha t a n i nv e st or w i ll

n ot t ak e a p ro fi t o nc e h is t ar ge t p ri ce is r e ac h ed s eems r id ic u lo u s b e cau se i t is

b eli ev ed t ha t a ll b uy er s w il l b e s e ll er s w h en t he y h av e a g o od p ro fit . B u t i n t he

c ha ng ed g ol d ma rk et o f t o da y b uy er s a re n o t o ft en s el le rs , a sw e k now i t.

The ongoing uncertainty in the developed world and overwhelming

debt in the face of further economic downturns, points to demand for

gold coming from the developed world; however, gold demand is

lackluster there, at best.

Gold went really global around five years ago. In 2009 central banks

came in as buyers. These two factors have changed the gold market

entirely; they have distorted the factors bearing on technical analysis

and changed the way prices move now. In fact, the very nature of

investors in gold has changed, and for good!

Ofcourse the market looks as though itneeds a major correction, ifyou

look at it through the eyes of six years ago. If you believe the picture

painted by the old criteria, you should sell gold and stay out until it

drops back, but to where? Ifwe understand the new investors and how

they think, then our conclusions should be different. Look at what has

happened since June and note that while the risks in the gold market

have risen, current buyers are not price chasers either. This fact alone

should make us ask.

Are they likely to be sellers because of a swift rise?

What we have seen isa failure tofollow prices up, but towait until they

pull back and for physical gold tobe on offer. The new investor wants

physical gold itself and isnot so concerned with price. If they are right,

sooner or later the price will rise towell above what they have paid. The

lifespan of their investment is generations long, not days, weeks, or

years long.

The conditions that have lifted gold from $275 to $1,900 continue to

persist. The gold price is not about gold; it is about the bear market in

currencies, the deteriorating confidence in the value of currencies, as

well as developed world's government's ability to restore that

confidence. As these factors point to more of the same expect a

continuation in the fall of currencies against gold and silver to levels

deemed incredible by the developed markets ofthe world.

Do we expect the value ofcurrencies to rise? Do we expect a resurgence

of economic health in the developed world? Do we expect strong

government with the force and conviction to produce a reformed

strong monetary system across a financially united world?

"Money is like manure. You have to spread it around or it smells."

MANSUKH SECURITIES & FINANCE LTD.

MANSUKH COMMODITY FUTURES PVT. LTD

NSE: INB/INF230781431, NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-140-2000

MEMBER NCDX-CO-04-00187& MCX: 10615(FMC:NCDEXlTCM/CORP/0293 & MCXlTCM/CORP/074

Pr inted & Published on behalf o f

Mansukh Securities &Finance Ltd.

Publication Address: Mansukh House, 6, Pandav Nagar, New Delhi-110092

Ph. : 011 - 30211800, 47617800, Fax: 011 - 30211835, E-mai l: [email protected]

Website: www.moneysukh.com

For any query, suggestion and feedback wr ite to :

[email protected]@moneysukh.com

Disclaimer :Th is repor t i s fo r i nformational purposes only and conta ins information , opinion , mater ia l obtained from rel iable sources and every effort has been made to avo id errors and omiss ions

an d is n ot to b e c on st ru ed a s a n a dv ic e o ra n o ffer to act on v iews expressed there in or an offer to buy and/or sel l any secur it ies or related f inancial i ns truments . Mansukh, itsemployees and i ts group

companies sha ll not be respons ib le and/or l iable to anyone for any d irec t or consequential use of the contents thereof . Reproduct ion of the contents o f th is repor t i nany form or byany means w ithout

p ri or wr it ten p ermis si on of the Man su kh i s p ro hi bit ed. Pl ea se n ote tha t we a nd o ur a ff il ia te , o ff ic er s, d ir ec tor s a nd e mpl oy ee s, in clu din g p erson s in vo lv ed i n the p rep arat io n of is su an ce o f thi s

mater ia l may; (a) f rom t ime to t ime, have long or short pos it ions in, and buy orse ll the secur it ies thereof , o f company ( ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in these secur it ies inways d if fe renl from

those d iscussed in thi s repor t o r (c) beengaged any other t ransacti on involving such secur it ies and earn brokerage or o ther compensat ion oractas a market maker in the f inancial i ns truments orthe

c ompa ny (i es) d is cu ss ed h erei n o r may p er fo rm o r s eek to pe rform i nv es tment ba nk in g s ervic es for s uc h C ompa ny (i es ) o r a ct a s a dv is or or l end er / b or ro we r to s uc h Co mp an y( ies ) or h av e othe r

potenti al confl ic t o f i nteres t w ith respect toany recommendat ion and related information and opinions. A ll d isputes sha ll besubjec t to the exc lusi ve jur isdi ct ion of Delhi H igh Court .

Sa fe Ha rb or S ta te me nt : So me forwa rd lo ok in g s ta temen ts o n p ro je ct io ns , es timates , e xp ec ta ti on, o ut lo ok e tc a re in cl ud ed i n thi s u pd ate o th el p i nv es to rs / a nal ys ts g et a b et te r c omprehe ns ion o f

the Company 's products and make informed investment dec is ions . Actua l resul ts may, however , d if fe r mater ia ll y f rom those sta ted on account o ffac tors such aschanges ingovernment regulat ions ,

tax reg imes, economic developments w ithin Ind ia and the countri es w ithin which the Company conducts i ts bus iness exchange rate and interes t rate movements , impact o f competing products and

the ir p ri cing . product demand and supply constra in ts . Investors are adv ised to consu lt the ir cer ti fi ed f inancial adv isor before mak ing any investments to meet the ir f inancial goa ls .

! ! !! !! !. . ~ k ! ! ! ! ! ! ! . . ~ ~! ! ! '= " ~ a e ! ! ! '= " ~ o r e ~~ . = . . E - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - . . . .

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AUXILIARY SECTION make more, for sure. MMANSUKH

fa . · 1 ' d - t . 1- '1 . . , . - k · t5, Y ' connec le i 0 ud~maille'

24 h O l U l l r s a da" , an ywhere

around t i h e ' w o r l d

IntroductionMansukh Securities has brought Alert for Clients Service for its customers to remain informed and connected withthe stock market while onmove.

J aamoon Ale Features:1.Conditional Alerts -This feature allows users to set alerts based on price trends.

2.Periodic Alerts - This feature allows users to set time-based alerts.3. Market Open and Market Close Alerts - This feature allows users to set alerts based on Market Open andMarket Close conditions.

Steps To Register And Use Ale Platforma. Clickhttp://www.moneysukh.com .

• •b. Click I I I

c. Click on New user click here and register yourself by entering your mobile number, first name and lastname.

d. SMS having your username and system generated password will be sent to your registered mobilenumber.

e. Using the login details you can now enter username and password and click Signin.

f. Once you login into the application for the first time, you will be asked to change your password. It isrecommended tochange the password although you may ignore the warning by clicking Ignore.

g. You can then click" Create alert" link to create your own alerts

h. You can also view the alerts you have created using "View alerts" link

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Monthly Magzine- September 2011-Mansukh Investment and Trading Solutions..

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