Modeling water and Modeling water and biogeochemical cycles in the biogeochemical cycles in the Front Range, Colorado: Front Range, Colorado: effects of climate and effects of climate and landuse changes landuse changes Landrum, Laura L., Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Landrum, Laura L., Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, [email protected][email protected]Tague, Christina, Department of Geography, San Diego Tague, Christina, Department of Geography, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, 92182, State University, San Diego, CA, 92182, [email protected][email protected]Baron, Jill S., USGS, Natural Resource Ecology Baron, Jill S., USGS, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, CO, 80523, [email protected][email protected]
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Modeling water and biogeochemical cycles in the Front Range, Colorado: effects of climate and landuse changes Landrum, Laura L., Natural Resource Ecology.
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Modeling water and biogeochemical Modeling water and biogeochemical cycles in the Front Range, Colorado: cycles in the Front Range, Colorado:
effects of climate and landuse changeseffects of climate and landuse changes
Landrum, Laura L., Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State Landrum, Laura L., Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, [email protected]@nrel.colostate.edu
Tague, Christina, Department of Geography, San Diego State University, Tague, Christina, Department of Geography, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, 92182, San Diego, CA, 92182, [email protected]@mail.sdsu.edu
Baron, Jill S., USGS, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado Baron, Jill S., USGS, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, [email protected]@nrel.colostate.edu
•Average streamflow 92% of 1986-1999 mean (63% of precip.)
•ET 110% of 1986-1999 mean (34% of precip.)
•70% decrease in permanent snowfields
•37% of annual streamflows < 80% 1986-1999 mean (dry)
•12% of annual streamflows < 60% 1986-1999 mean (very dry)
•Several 3+ dry years in a row
2000-2099 GCM runs: Hadley•Average precipitation 111% of 1986-1999 mean at weather station•Simulated precip. 103% of 1986-1999 mean (higher rain/snow)•Average streamflow 113% of 1986-1999 mean (70% of precip.)•ET 97% of 1986-1999 mean (27% of precip.)•30% increase in permanent snowfields
•19% of annual streamflows < 80% 1986-1999 mean (dry)•42% of annual streamflows > 120% 1986-1999 mean (wet)•A few 3+ dry years in a row•Several 3+ wet years in a row
LVWS Climate scenario results
• Preliminary results indicate that RHESSys is modeling Loch Vale streamflows well
• Warmer, dryer climate scenarios (CCC) lead to – decreased streamflows and increased ET– spring runoffs 1-2 months earlier– flashier flows– decreased snowpack– increased frequency and duration of “dry flow” years
• Warmer, wetter climate scenarios (Hadley) lead to:– Increased streamflows– spring runoffs 0.5-1 months earlier– Flashier flows– Increased snowpack
What is next for LVWS?
Loch Vale Watershed climate change modeling:
Nutrients
Forest and tundra growth, respiration
Modeling water and biogeochemical Modeling water and biogeochemical cycles in the Front Range, Colorado: cycles in the Front Range, Colorado:
effects of climate and landuse changeseffects of climate and landuse changesSouth Platte Watershed:South Platte Watershed:
•Landuse change and C, N, water fluxesLanduse change and C, N, water fluxes
Big Thompson Watershed:Big Thompson Watershed:•Climate change extent and duration of wetland floodingClimate change extent and duration of wetland flooding
•StreamflowsStreamflows
Loch Vale WatershedLoch Vale Watershed::•RHESSys simulations of streamflowRHESSys simulations of streamflow
•Snow distribution scheme addedSnow distribution scheme added•Tundra, forest ecosystem development/parameterizationTundra, forest ecosystem development/parameterization