May 01, 2019 Kotak Mahindra Bank - nalandasecurities.com · Q4FY19 – e May 01, 2019 Kotak Mahindra Bank Downside Scenario Current Price Price Target 1554 12% Upside Scenario Buy

Q4

FY1

9 –

Re

sult

Up

dat

e

May 01, 2019

Kotak Mahindra BankDownside

Scenario

Current

Price

Price

Target

155412%

Upside

Scenario

Buy

1385Increased earnings conviction; digital platform to continue traction

Strong growth in deposits driven by both CASA and Term deposits

Deposits grew 5.6% QoQ to 2.26 trillion. CASA improved by 9.4% QoQ to 1.18

trillion while term deposits rose 1.8% QoQ to 1.07 trillion. CASA ratio came at

52.5% v/s 50.7% QoQ, one of the highest among its peerset.

Moderate growth in advances QoQ backed by all the segments except

corporate book

Advances grew 4.7% QoQ to 2.05 trillion. Within advances, growth came from

home loans (+6.3% QoQ), Credit cards & small business (+6.7% QoQ), agricultural

loans (+13.7% QoQ). Corporate book de-grew by 1.7% QoQ.

Stable cash for liquidity

With regards to liquidity management, Bank decreased cash and equivalent

balance by 0.1% QoQ . While investments registered drop of 3.3% QoQ.

NIM stable; decline in cost; reduced advance to deposit ratio

NIM came at 4.4% v/s 4.3% in previous quarter. Cost of funds decreased from

5.5% to 5.36%, while yield on advances came in at 9.9% vs 10.0% QoQ. Advance

to deposit ratio came at 91.1% v/s 91.9% in previous quarter.

Operational efficiency in line

Cost to income ratio came at 47.1% v/s 50.3%. Total operating income grew

10.6% QoQ while operating expense grew 3.6% QoQ due to 4.6% QoQ growth in

other operating expenses.

Normalizing credit cost

Provisions shrank 44.2% YoY resulting in credit cost of 0.23% v/s 0.48% in YoY.

GNPA came at 2.14%, NNPA came at 0.75%. In Q3FY19 provisions were negative

due to a write back of INR 2.7 bn on mark to market depreciation on investments.

Expect 27% EPS CAGR FY19-21

boosted by 29.6% PPoP (25.7% CAGR FY19-21) growth; higher NII (25.7% CAGR

FY19-21), because of higher loan growth, strong control on expenses and

improvement in spreads

Valuations

PAT grew 25.2% YoY & 9.1% QoQ to 14078 mn. This improved ROAA% to 1.86%

from 1.77% in Q4FY19 and ROAE% to 13.36% from 12.67% in Q4FY19. We like

Kotak Bank’s fairly managed balance sheet with superior risk management, and

believe the subsidiaries to do well and add significant value going ahead. We

value bank at FY20E P/ABV of 4.5x and subsidiary at INR 257 per share, arriving at

a target price of 1554, implying an upside potential of 12.2% from current levels.

Market Data

Industry BFSI

Sensex 39,031

Nifty 11,748

Bloomberg Code KMB:IN

Eq. Cap. (INR Million) 14,544

Face Value (INR) 5

52-w L/H 1,424/1,002

Market Cap (INR Million) 26,47,650

Valuation Data FY19 FY20E FY21E

NIM 4.0% 4.2% 4.3%

Book value 225 257 299

Adj BV 217 249 291

ROAA 1.7% 1.8% 1.8%

ROAE 12.3% 13.8% 15.3%

Kotak Bank Vs SENSEX

Mar’19 Dec’18 Mar’18

Promoters 29.99 30.01 30.04

FIIs 40.27 39.36 39.56

DIIs 11.51 9.63 8.98

Others 18.23 21.00 21.42

100 100 100

Shareholding Pattern

*

Source: Company, NSPL Research

Institutional Research

* Read last page for disclaimer & rating rationale

HEAD OF RESEARCHVaibhav Chowdhryvaibhav.chowdhry@ nalandasecurities.com

NALANDA SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITED310-311 Hubtown Solaris, NS Phadke Marg, Opp Teli Gali, Andheri East, Mumbai 69+91-22-6281-9649 | [email protected] | www.nalandasecurities.com

ANALYSTAmit [email protected]

Standalone - INR Millions FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Net Interest Income 81,261 95,317 1,12,590 1,40,896 1,77,939

Growth (%) 17.8% 17.3% 18.1% 25.1% 26.3%

Pre-provisioning profit 59,848 71,582 83,482 1,09,997 1,40,221

Growth (%) 48.1% 19.6% 16.6% 31.8% 27.5%

PAT 34,115 40,843 48,653 61,543 78,979

Growth (%) 63.2% 19.7% 19.1% 26.5% 28.3%

EPS (INR) 19 21 26 32 41

BVPS (INR) 150 197 225 257 299

ABVPS (INR) 141 188 217 249 291

P/B (x) 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.4 4.6

P/ABV (x) 5.4 5.3 5.7 5.6 4.8

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Kotak Sensex

mailto:[email protected]



Kotak Mahindra Bank | Q4FY19 - Result Update | Page 2

Q4FY19 Result Analysis

• Bank’s total operating income grew 15.7% YoY and 10.6% QoQ to INR 43182 mn in this quarter on the back of 20.3% YoYgrowth in interest income propelled by 21.2% YoY growth in advances.

• Bank’s Net Interest Income grew 18.1% YoY & 3.7% QoQ to 30479 mn in this quarter. Yield on advances expanded from 9.6%in YoY to 9.9% in Q4FY19 but its impact was offset by increase in cost of funds from 5.20% in Q4FY18 to 5.36% in Q4FY19.

• Bank’s quarterly cost to income ratio contracted by 123bps YoY to 47.1%.

• Bank’s quarterly pre-provisioning profit grew 13.1% YoY & 17.7% QoQ to 22823 mn in this quarter.

• Bank’s net profits came at 14078 mn (+25.2% YoY, +9.1% QoQ) in this quarter.

• Gross NPA ratio came at 2.14% (v/s 2.22% in Q4FY18) and NNPA came at 0.75% (v/s 0.98% in Q4FY18). Provision coverageratio was 65.4% (v/s 56.5% in Q4FY18).


INR Mn Q4FY19 Q4FY18 YoY (%) Q3FY19 QoQ (%) FY19 FY18 YoY (%)

Interest income 64,023 53,234 20.3% 62,503 2.4% 2,39,432 1,97,485 21.2%

Interest expense 33,544 27,436 22.3% 33,113 1.3% 1,26,843 1,02,168 24.2%

Net interest income 30,479 25,798 18.1% 29,391 3.7% 1,12,590 95,317 18.1%

Non interest income 12,703 11,516 10.3% 9,639 31.8% 46,040 40,522 13.6%

Total income 43,182 37,314 15.7% 39,030 10.6% 1,58,630 1,35,839 16.8%

Operating expense 20,359 17,134 18.8% 19,646 3.6% 75,148 64,257 16.9%

Pre-provision profits 22,823 20,180 13.1% 19,384 17.7% 83,482 71,582 16.6%

Provisions 1,713 3,069 -44.2% -323 -630.2% 9,624 9,400 2.4%

Profit before tax 21,110 17,110 23.4% 19,707 7.1% 73,858 62,182 18.8%

Tax expense 7,032 5,870 19.8% 6,798 3.4% 25,205 21,339 18.1%

Net profits 14,078 11,241 25.2% 12,909 9.1% 48,653 40,843 19.1%

Shareholder Funds 4,28,984 3,74,817 14.5% 4,14,260 3.6% 4,28,984 3,74,817 14.5%

Deposits 22,58,804 19,26,433 17.3% 21,38,040 5.6% 22,58,804 19,26,433 17.3%

Borrowings 3,22,483 2,51,542 28.2% 2,91,290 10.7% 3,22,483 2,51,542 28.2%

Total Liabilities 31,21,721 26,49,334 17.8% 29,41,980 6.1% 31,21,721 26,49,334 17.8%

Advances 20,56,948 16,97,179 21.2% 19,64,320 4.7% 20,56,948 16,97,179 21.2%

Total Assets 31,21,721 26,49,334 17.8% 29,41,980 6.1% 31,21,721 26,49,334 17.8%

NIM (%) reported 4.5% 4.4% 3.0% 4.3% 3.5% 4.5% 4.4% 3.0%

Gross NPA (%) 2.1% 2.2% -3.6% 2.1% 3.4% 2.1% 2.2% -3.6%

PCR (%) 65.4% 56.5% 15.9% 66.2% -1.1% 65.4% 56.5% 15.9%

Net NPA (%) 0.8% 1.0% -23.5% 0.7% 5.6% 0.8% 1.0% -23.5%

Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) 17.5% 18.2% -4.0% 18.1% -3.3% 17.5% 18.2% -4.0%

HEAD OF RESEARCHVaibhav Chowdhryvaibhav.chowdhry@ nalandasecurities.com








ANALYSTVaibhav Chowdhryvaibhav.chowdhry@ nalandasecurities.com


1,0

36

1,1

17

1,1

53

1,1

87

1,2

08

1,2

60

1,2

93

1,3

61

1,4

24

1,5

26

1,5

91

1,6

97

1,7

69

1,8

49

1,9

64

2,0

57

82 8378 79

1713 12

1518

21 23 25 2421 23 21

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500Q

1-1

6

Q2

-16

Q3

-16

Q4

-16

Q1

-17

Q2

-17

Q3

-17

Q4

-17

Q1

-18

Q2

-18

Q3

-18

Q4

-18

Q1

-19

Q2

-19

Q3

-19

Q4

-19

In T

ho

usa

nd

Mill

ion

s

Consistent Growth in Advances

Advances YoY Growth (%)

1,16

8

1,2

32

1,3

09

1,3

86

1,4

00

1,4

10

1,4

94

1,57

4

1,6

35

1,6

57

1,8

08

1,9

26

1,8

97

2,0

58

2,1

38

2,2

59

34%

36

%

35

%

38

%

37

% 39

%

42

%

44%

44

%

48

%

47

%

51

%

50

%

50

%

51

%

52

%

34%

36%

38%

40%

42%

44%

46%

48%

50%

52%

54%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Q1

-16

Q2

-16

Q3

-16

Q4

-16

Q1

-17

Q2

-17

Q3

-17

Q4

-17

Q1

-18

Q2

-18

Q3

-18

Q4

-18

Q1

-19

Q2

-19

Q3

-19

Q4

-19

In T

ho

usa

nd

Mill

ion

s

Industry Leading CASA Profile

Deposits CASA (%)

14.4

%

11.4

%

11.1

%

11.0

%

11.0

%

10.9

%

10.7

%

10.2

%

10.0

%

9.7%

9.7%

9.5%

9.6% 9.

9% 10.0

%

9.9%

9.4%

7.9%

7.8%

7.7%

7.7% 7.9%

7.9%

7.4%

7.3% 7.4%

7.1% 7.

4%

6.7% 6.9% 7.

3%

6.8%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

Q1

-16

Q2

-16

Q3

-16

Q4

-16

Q1

-17

Q2

-17

Q3

-17

Q4

-17

Q1

-18

Q2

-18

Q3

-18

Q4

-18

Q1

-19

Q2

-19

Q3

-19

Q4

-19

Yield Trend

Yield on Advances (%) Yield on Investments (%)

1,38

2

1,45

1

1,50

7

1,59

6

1,57

1

1,60

9

1,67

5

1,78

5

1,83

2

1,91

6

2,04

0

2,17

8

2,23

2

2,38

4

2,42

9

2,58

1

8.5%

6.6%

6.4%

6.2%

6.2%

6.1%

5.9%

5.2% 5.3%

5.2% 5.3%

5.2%

5.3% 5.

4% 5.5%

5.4%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Q1

-16

Q2

-16

Q3

-16

Q4

-16

Q1

-17

Q2

-17

Q3

-17

Q4

-17

Q1

-18

Q2

-18

Q3

-18

Q4

-18

Q1

-19

Q2

-19

Q3

-19

Q4

-19

In T

ho

usa

nd

Mn

Cost of Funds - Trend

Interest Bearing Liabilities Cost of Funds

1,5

58

1,6

37

1,7

04

1,8

08

1,7

88

1,8

40

1,90

9

2,0

37

2,14

5

2,2

62

2,38

4

2,5

39

2,60

8

2,77

5

2,83

8

3,0

16

5.0%

4.2%4.2%4.2%4.3%

4.4%4.4%4.4%

4.3%

4.2%

4.1%4.2%

4.0%4.0%

4.2%4.2%

3.9%

4.2%

4.5%

4.8%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Q1

-16

Q2

-16

Q3

-16

Q4

-16

Q1

-17

Q2

-17

Q3

-17

Q4

-17

Q1

-18

Q2

-18

Q3

-18

Q4

-18

Q1

-19

Q2

-19

Q3

-19

Q4

-19

In T

ho

usa

nd

Mn

Healthy Margin Profile

Interest Earning Assets NIM (%) Calculated

0.6

%

1.3%

1.4%

1.5%

1.6%

1.7%

1.8%

1.9%

1.7%

1.7%

1.7%

1.8%

1.5%

1.6%

1.8%

1.9%

4.2%

10.2

%

11.1

%

11.8

%

12.

2% 12.9

%

13.

5% 14.

4%

11.8

%

11.4

%

11.8

%

12.

2%

10.8

%

11.6

% 12.7

%

13.4

%

3.5%

5.5%

7.5%

9.5%

11.5%

13.5%

15.5%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

Q1

-16

Q2

-16

Q3

-16

Q4

-16

Q1

-17

Q2

-17

Q3

-17

Q4

-17

Q1

-18

Q2

-18

Q3

-18

Q4

-18

Q1

-19

Q2

-19

Q3

-19

Q4

-19

Strong Return Profile - not annualized

ROA (%) ROE (%)









Standalone - Profit & Loss (INR Millions) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Interest income 1,76,989 1,97,485 2,39,432 2,99,776 3,76,186

Interest expense 95,728 1,02,168 1,26,843 1,58,880 1,98,247

Net interest income 81,261 95,317 1,12,590 1,40,896 1,77,939

Growth (%) 17.8% 17.3% 18.1% 25.1% 26.3%

Non interest income 34,772 40,522 46,040 60,196 73,804

Total Income 1,16,033 1,35,839 1,58,630 2,01,092 2,51,744

Growth (%) 22.0% 17.1% 16.8% 26.8% 25.2%

Operating expense 56,185 64,257 75,148 91,095 1,11,523

Pre-provision profits 59,848 71,582 83,482 1,09,997 1,40,221

Growth (%) 48.1% 19.6% 16.6% 31.8% 27.5%

Provisions 8,367 9,400 9,624 16,300 19,978

Profit before tax 51,481 62,182 73,858 93,697 1,20,243

Tax expense 17,366 21,339 25,205 32,154 41,264

Tax Rate (%) 33.7% 34.3% 34.1% 34.3% 34.3%

Net profits 34,115 40,843 48,653 61,543 78,979

Growth (%) 63.2% 19.7% 19.1% 26.5% 28.3%

Standalone - Balance Sheet (INR Millions) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share capital 9,204 9,528 14,544 14,544 14,544

Reserves & surplus 2,66,956 3,65,288 4,14,440 4,75,983 5,54,962

Shareholders Funds 2,76,161 3,74,817 4,28,984 4,90,527 5,69,506

Borrowings 2,10,955 2,51,542 3,22,483 4,44,499 5,85,786

Deposits 15,74,259 19,26,433 22,58,804 27,30,494 33,19,456

Growth (%) 13.5% 22.4% 17.3% 20.9% 21.6%

Other liabilities & provisions 84,507 96,521 1,11,430 1,65,721 2,37,684

TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY 21,45,900 26,49,334 31,21,721 38,31,262 47,12,452

USES OF FUNDS

Cash and cash equivalents 2,25,720 1,96,201 2,46,755 1,85,065 2,27,630

Investments 4,50,742 6,45,624 7,11,891 10,06,752 12,38,305

Advances 13,60,821 16,97,179 20,56,948 25,09,477 30,86,656

Growth (%) 14.7% 24.7% 21.2% 22.0% 23.0%

Fixed assets 15,376 15,272 16,516 15,712 15,987

Other assets 93,240 95,059 89,611 1,14,257 1,43,875

TOTAL ASSETS 21,45,900 26,49,334 31,21,721 38,31,262 47,12,452









Ratios FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Growth rates

Advances (%) 14.7% 24.7% 23.0% 22.0% 23.0%

Deposits (%) 13.5% 22.4% 17.3% 20.9% 21.6%

Total assets (%) 11.6% 23.5% 17.8% 22.7% 23.0%

NII (%) 17.8% 17.3% 18.1% 25.1% 26.3%

Pre-provisioning profit (%) 48.1% 19.6% 16.6% 31.8% 27.5%

PAT (%) 63.2% 19.7% 19.1% 26.5% 28.3%

Balance sheet ratios

Credit/Deposit (%) 86.4% 88.1% 91.1% 91.9% 93.0%

CASA (%) 44.0% 50.8% 50.8% 50.8% 50.8%

Advances/Total assets (%) 63.4% 64.1% 65.2% 65.5% 65.5%

Leverage (x) 7.8 7.1 7.3 7.8 8.3

Operating efficiency

Cost/Income (%) 48.4% 47.3% 47.4% 45.3% 44.3%

Opex/Total Assets (%) 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%

Opex/Total Interest Earning Assets (%) 2.8% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4%

Profitability

NIM (%) 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 4.2% 4.3%

RoA (%) 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8%

RoE (%) 13.0% 12.0% 12.3% 13.8% 15.3%

Asset quality

Gross NPA (%) 2.6% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6%

Net NPA (%) 1.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5%

PCR (%) 52.0% 56.5% 65.0% 67.0% 69.0%

Net Slippage (%) 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Per share data / Valuation

EPS (Rs.) 19 21 26 32 41

BV (Rs.) 150 197 225 257 299

ABV (Rs.) 141 188 217 249 291

P/BV (x) 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.4 4.6

P/ABV (x) 5.4 5.3 5.7 5.6 4.8





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Disclaimer:This report has been prepared by Nalanda Securities Pvt. Ltd(“NSPL”) and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 18 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India(Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. NSPL includes subsidiaries, group and associatecompanies, promoters, directors, employees and affiliates. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available toothers, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from NSPL. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based upon anumber of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and itcan be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and suchvariations will likely increase over the period of time. All the projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by authors of this report independently.None of the forecasts were prepared with a view towards compliance with published guidelines or generally accepted accounting principles.This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything containedtherein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into accountthe particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of individual clients. The research analysts of NSPL have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) ofthe Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their owninvestment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particularcircumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. NSPL does not take any responsibility thereof. Any such recipient shall beresponsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved insecurities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investorsmay realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.Except for the historical information contained herein, statements in this report, which contain words such as ‘will’, ‘would’, etc., and similar expressions or variations of such wordsmay constitute ‘forward‐looking statements’. These forward‐looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differmaterially from those suggested by the forward‐looking statements. Forward‐looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. NSPL undertakesno obligation to update forward‐looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date thereof. NSPL accepts no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising outof use of this report.This report has been prepared by NSPL based upon the information available in the public domain and other public sources believed to be reliable. Though utmost care has beentaken to ensure its accuracy and completeness, no representation or warranty, express or implied is made by NSPL that such information is accurate or complete and/or isindependently verified. The contents of this report represent the assumptions and projections of NSPL and NSPL does not guarantee the accuracy or reliability of any projection,assurances or advice made herein. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and/or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable orappropriate to recipients’ specific circumstances. This report is based / focused on fundamentals of the Company and forward‐looking statements as such, may not match with areport on a company’s technical analysis report. This report may not be followed by any specific event update/ follow‐up.

Following table contains the disclosure of interest in order to adhere to utmost transparency in the matter;

Disclosure of Interest Statement

Details of Nalanda Securities Pvt. Limited (NSPL)

• NSPL is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE and MCX ‐ SX in all the major

segments viz. Cash, F & O and CDS segments. Further, NSPL is a Registered

Portfolio Manager and is registered with SEBI

• SEBI Registration Number: INH000004617

Details of Disciplinary History of NSPL No disciplinary action is / was running / initiated against NSPL

Research analyst or NSPL or its relatives'/associates' financial interest in

the subject company and nature of such financial interest

No (except to the extent of shares held by Research analyst or NSPL or its

relatives'/associates')

Whether Research analyst or NSPL or its relatives'/associates' is holding

the securities of the subject companyNO

Research analyst or NSPL or its relatives'/associates' actual/beneficial

ownership of 1% or more in securities of the subject company, at the

end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the

document

NO

Research analyst or NSPL or its relatives'/associates' any other material

conflict of interest at the time of publication of the documentNO

Has research analyst or NSPL or its associates received any compensation

from the subject company in the past 12 monthsNO

Has research analyst or NSPL or its associates managed or co‐managed

public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 monthNO


for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from

the subject company in the past 12 months

NO


for products or services other than investment banking or merchant

banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12

months

NO


or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection

with the document.

NO

Has research analyst served as an officer, director or employee of the

subject companyNO

Has research analyst or NSPL engaged in market making activity for the

subject companyNO

Other disclosures NO

Rating Legend

Strong Buy More than 15%

Buy 5% - 15%

Hold 0 – 5%

Reduce -5% - 0

Sell Less than -5%

Kotak Mahindra Bank

Date CMP (INR) Target Price (INR) Recommendation

May 01, 2019 1385 1554 Buy

October 25, 2018 1177 1371 Strong Buy

July 19, 2018 1347 1423 Buy








May 01, 2019 Kotak Mahindra Bank - nalandasecurities.com · Q4FY19 – e May 01, 2019 Kotak Mahindra Bank Downside Scenario Current Price Price Target 1554 12% Upside Scenario Buy

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