LNG INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN EUROPE AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE GAS MARKET forumas... · 2019-01-11 · ON THE GAS MARKET ESTONIA LATVIA LITHUANIA VILNIUS ENERGY FORUM 2018 Dr. Paulius

LNG INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN EUROPE AND THEIR IMPACT

ON THE GAS MARKET

ESTONIA LATVIA LITHUANIA

VILNIUS ENERGY FORUM 2018Dr. Paulius Zapolskis

November 7, 2018, Vilnius

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EU strategy for liquefied natural gas and gas storage (2016)

Security and resilience

Competitiveness

Sustainability

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Operational large-scale LNG import terminals in EU

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24 LARGE-SCALE LNG IMPORT TERMINALS

Onshore LNG terminals

FSRU Facilities

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SERVICES PROVIDED AT THE EU 24 LARGE-SCALE* LNG IMPORT TERMINALS

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Operational small-scale LNG import terminals in EU

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SMALL-SCALE LNG IMPORT TERMINALS

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Development of LNG projects in EU

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3 LNG IMPORT TERMINALS

3 large-scale LNG import terminals: 2 in Canary Islands and 1 in Sweden

1 small-scale LNG import terminals in Port of Hamina, Finland

Tenerife

Arico-Granadilla LNG

Foreseen: 2021

Storage capacity: 150,000 m³Gran Canaria

Arinaga LNG

Foreseen: 2022+

Storage capacity: 150,000 m³

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Planned LNG projects in EU

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21 large-scale LNG terminals in EU

7 first large-scale LNG import terminals

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Russian LNG projects

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4 LNG projects in Europe

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Permits and approvals

Financing

Environmental conditions

Infrastructure

RISKS TO PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

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LNG imports by region

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BCM

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

20352017

55%

16%

15%

13%

2017 BCM

Asia Europe Americas Middle East & Africa

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LNG imports by country (billion cubic meters)

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15.39

9.3

7.55

6.17

3.4

1.62 1.611.11 1.1 0.98 0.32

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Spain France Italy United Kingdom Portugal Greece Poland Belgium Lithuania Netherlands Malta

LNG imports by EU countries in 2017bcm

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TOP 3 LNG SUPPLIERS TO EU

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In the Q2 of 2018, Qatar remained the main LNG supplier of the

EU, with its market share bouncing back above 40%.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Qatar Nigeria Algeria

43%

17%16%

%

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Is gas consumption in Europe increasing?

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Increasing natural gas consumption

Decline of domestic production in EU MS

Nord Stream 2 project

Turkish Stream project

Expansion in Baltic sea region

Yamal LNG project

Gazprom’s dominant role on European gas market

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Is US a new market player?

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European Commission and US agreed to strengthen thestrategic cooperation with respect to energy, because:

• It is expected EU to fund 9 to 11 LNG ports to ship more

gas to Europe from US

• Russia intends to raise its share in the global LNG market

Between 2016 and 2018, Europe received only 11% of US LNG

shipments.

ADVANTAGES OF US LNG EXPORT

FACTS

ASSUMPTIONS AND ACTIONS

US prices are indexed to the US Henry Hub gas spot price,

Gazprom’s prices are indexed to the price of oil.

Poland NorwayGermany

Long-term LNG

contract with the US

Plans to build LNG

terminal in order to

diversify its energy

supply and decrease

their dependence on

Russian natural gas

Opens new large bioLNG plant

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Positive LNG development examples

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Capacity extension

of Świnoujście LNG

terminal

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Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan in Gas (BEMIP gas)

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6 Projects of Common Interests

• The Gas Interconnection Poland-Lithuania

(GIPL) pipeline project

• The Balticonnector pipeline project (Estonia-

Finland)

• Cluster infrastructure upgrade in the Eastern

Baltic Sea region: enhancement of Latvia-Lithuania

interconnection, Estonia-Latvia interconnection and

Inčukalns Underground Gas Storage

• Gothenburg LNG terminal in Sweden

• Capacity extension of Świnoujście LNG

terminal in Poland

• Poland-Denmark Interconnection (Baltic Pipe)

project

www.tgsbaltic.comESTONIA LATVIA LITHUANIA

THANK YOU!

Dr. Paulius Zapolskis

Associate Partner

Mobile phone +370 655 40 300

E-mail: [email protected]

Konstitucijos ave. 21A, LT-08130 Vilnius