LIFE CYCLE ANALYSIS (LCA) WITH THE GREET MODELGREET LCA modeling approach Build LCA modeling capacity Build a consistent LCA platform with reliable, widely accepted methods/protocols

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Amgad Elgowainy, Ph.D.

Systems Assessment CenterEnergy Systems DivisionArgonne National Laboratory

October 10, 2019

LIFE CYCLE ANALYSIS (LCA) WITH THE GREET MODEL

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Systems Assessment Center, Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory

Michael Wang, Director

Systems Assessment Center

Amgad Elgowainy, Leader

Electrification and Infrastructure GroupTroy Hawkins, Leader

Fuels and Products Group

Joann (Yan) Zhou, Leader

Mobility and Deployment Group

Jackie Papiernik

Administrative Assistant

Qiang Dai

Ed Frank

Linda Gaines

Yu Gan (post doc)

Jarod Kelly

Zifeng Lu

Krishna Reddi

Pingping Sun

Olumide Winjobi (post doc)

Guiyan Zang (post doc)

Adarsh Bafana (post doc)

Pahola Thathiana Benavides

Hao Cai

Jennifer Dunn

Miae Ha

Hoyoung Kwon

Uisung Lee

Xinyu Liu (post doc)

Longwen Ou (post doc)

May Wu

Hui Xu

Kevin Bi (post doc)

Andrew Burnham

David Gohlke

Marianne Mintz

Steve Plotkin (temp)

Marcy Rood

Chris Saricks (temp)

Kai Song (temp)

Tom Stephens

Anant Vyas (temp)

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The GREET® (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation) model

GREET 1 model:

Fuel-cycle (or well-to-wheels, WTW) modeling of

vehicle/fuel systems

Stochastic

Simulation ToolCarbon Calculator for Land Use

Change from Biofuels (CCLUB)

GR

EE

T 2

model:

Vehic

le c

ycle

mode

ling fo

r vehic

les

https://greet.es.anl.gov/

https://greet.es.anl.gov/

GREET development has been supported by several U.S. DOE Offices since 1995

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- Vehicle Technology Office (VTO) - Bioenergy Technology Office (BETO)

- Fuel-Cell Technology Office (FCTO) - Strategic Priorities & Impact Analysis (SPIA)

Examples of major uses of GREET

DOE, USDA, and the Navy use GREET for R&D decisions

US EPA used GREET for RFS and vehicle GHG standard developments

CARB developed CA-GREET for its Low-Carbon Fuel Standard compliance

DOD DLA-Energy uses GREET for alternative fuel purchase requirements

Energy industry (especially new fuel companies) uses it for addressing sustainability of

R&D investments

Auto industry uses it for R&D screening of vehicle/fuel system combinations

Universities uses GREET for education on technology sustainability of various fuels

GREET has been in public domain and free of charge since it inception in

1995- Updated and expanded annually

There are ~ 38,000 registered GREET users globally

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Geographically, 71% in North

America, 14% in Europe, 9% in

Asia

57% in academia and research,

33 % in industries, 8% in

governments

GREET includes all transportation subsectors

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• Light-duty vehicles• Medium-duty vehicles• Heavy-duty vehicles• Various powertrains:

Internal combustionBattery Electric Fuel cells

• Freight transportation• GREET includes Diesel Electricity CNG/LNG

Roadtransportation

Airtransportation

Railtransportation

Marinetransportation

• The sector is under pressure to reduce air emissions and GHG emissions• GREET includes Ocean and inland water transportation Baseline diesel and alternative marine fuels

Globally, a fast growing sector with GHG reduction pressureGREET includes• Passenger and freight transportationVarious alternative fuels blended with petroleum jet fuels

Energy use – addressing energy diversity/security

Total energy: fossil energy and renewable energy

• Fossil energy: petroleum, natural gas, and coal (they are estimated separately)

• Renewable energy: biomass, nuclear energy, hydro-power, wind power, and solar energy

Air pollutants – addressing air pollution

VOC, CO, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, and SOxThey are estimated separately for

• Total (emissions everywhere)

• Urban (a subset of the total)

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) – addressing climate change

CO2, CH4, N2O, black carbon, and albedo

CO2e of the five (with their global warming potentials)

Water consumption – addressing water supply and demand (energy-water nexus)

GREET LCA functional units

Per service unit (e.g., mile driven, ton-mile, passenger-mile)

Per unit of output (e.g., million Btu, MJ, gasoline gallon equivalent)

Per units of resource (e.g., per ton of biomass)

GREET sustainability metrics include energy use, criteria pollutants, greenhouse gases, and water consumption

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GREET includes more than 100 fuel production pathways from various energy feedstock sources

PetroleumConventional

Oil Sands

Compressed Natural Gas

Liquefied Natural Gas

Liquefied Petroleum Gas

Methanol

Dimethyl Ether

Fischer-Tropsch Diesel

Fischer-Tropsch Jet

Fischer-Tropsch Naphtha

Hydrogen

Natural GasNorth American

Non-North American

Shale gas

Coal

Soybeans

Palm

Rapeseed

Jatropha

Camelina

Algae

Gasoline

Diesel

Jet Fuel

Liquefied Petroleum Gas

Naphtha

Residual Oil

Hydrogen

Fischer-Tropsch Diesel

Fischer-Tropsch Jet

Methanol

Dimethyl Ether

Biodiesel

Renewable Diesel

Renewable Gasoline

Renewable Jet

Sugarcane

Corn

Cellulosic BiomassSwitchgrass

Willow/Poplar

Crop Residues

Forest Residues

Miscanthus

Residual Oil

Coal

Natural Gas

Biomass

Other Renewables

Ethanol

Butanol

Ethanol

Ethanol

Hydrogen

Methanol

Dimethyl Ether

Fischer-Tropsch Diesel

Fischer-Tropsch Jet

Pyro Gasoline/Diesel/Jet

Electricity

Renewable Natural GasLandfill Gas

Animal Waste

Waste water treatment

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Coke Oven Gas

Petroleum Coke

Nuclear EnergyHydrogen

Hydrogen

GREET examines more than 80 on-road vehicle/fuel systems for both light-duty and

heavy-duty vehicles

Conventional Spark-Ignition Engine Vehicles

4 Gasoline4 Compressed natural gas, liquefied natural gas,

and liquefied petroleum gas

4 Gaseous and liquid hydrogen4 Methanol and ethanol

Spark-Ignition, Direct-Injection Engine Vehicles

4 Gasoline4 Methanol and ethanol

Compression-Ignition, Direct-Injection

Engine Vehicles

4 Diesel4 Fischer-Tropsch diesel4 Dimethyl ether4 Biodiesel

Fuel Cell Vehicles

4 On-board hydrogen storage– Gaseous and liquid hydrogen from

various sources

4 On-board hydrocarbon reforming to hydrogen

Battery-Powered Electric Vehicles

4 Various electricity generation sources

Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs)

4 Spark-ignition engines:– Gasoline

– Compressed natural gas, liquefied natural gas,

and liquefied petroleum gas

– Gaseous and liquid hydrogen

– Methanol and ethanol

4 Compression-ignition engines– Diesel

– Fischer-Tropsch diesel

– Dimethyl ether

– Biodiesel

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs)

4 Spark-ignition engines:– Gasoline

– Compressed natural gas, liquefied natural gas,

and liquefied petroleum gas

– Gaseous and liquid hydrogen

– Methanol and ethanol

4 Compression-ignition engines– Diesel

– Fischer-Tropsch diesel

– Dimethyl ether

– Biodiesel

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Raw material recovery

Material processing and fabrication

Vehicle component production

Vehicle assembly

Vehicle disposal and recycling

GREET simulates vehicle cycle from material recovery to vehicle disposal

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Approach to developing a materials inventory for vehicles

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Vehicle ModelVehicle fuel economy

Vehicle and component weights

ASCM1 Dismantling Reports Other literatureEngineering Calculations

Vehicle Components• Body• Powertrain• Transmission• Chassis• Electric traction motor• Generator• Electronic controller

Battery• Startup (Pb-Acid)• Electric-drive

• Ni-MH• Li-ion

Fluids• Engine oil• Power steering fluid• Brake fluid• Transmission fluid• Powertrain coolant• Windshield fluid• Adhesives

1. Automotive System Cost Model, IBIS Associates and Oak Ridge National Laboratory

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GREET includes life-cycle inventories of 60+ materials

Material Type Number in GREET Examples

Ferrous Metals 3 Steel, stainless steel, iron

Non-Ferrous Metals 12 Aluminum, copper, nickel, magnesium

Plastics 23Polypropylene, nylon, carbon fiber

reinforced plastic

Vehicle Fluids 7 Engine oil, windshield fluid

Others 17 Glass, graphite, silicon, cement

Total 62

Key issues in vehicle-cycle analysis

Use of virgin vs. recycled materials

Vehicle weight and lightweighting

lightweighting with aluminum, magnesium, carbon fiber reinforced plastics, and high strength steel

Vehicle lifetime, component rebuilding/replacement

GREET includes water consumption LCA

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Water LCA of a fuel: accounts for fresh water consumption along the pathway of

producing the fuel from its feedstock source

GREET LCA modeling approach

Build LCA modeling capacity

Build a consistent LCA platform with reliable, widely accepted methods/protocols

Address emerging LCA issues

Access to primary data sources and conduct detailed analysis

Document sources of data, modeling and analysis approach, and

results/conclusions

Maintain openness and transparency of LCAs by making GREET and its

documentation publicly available

Primarily process-based LCA approach (the so-called attributional LCA); some

features of consequential LCA are incorporated

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Low/high band: sensitivity to uncertainties associated with projected fuel economy values and selected fuel pathway parameters

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WTW GHG Emissions in g CO2e/mile: 2035 mid-size cars

(DOE EERE April 25 2013, Record 13005)

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Wind Electricity (Central)

Biomass Gasification (Central)

Coal Gasif. (Central) w/ Sequestration

Nat. Gas (Central) w/Sequestration

Distributed Natural Gas

BEV300 Renewable Electricity

BEV300 Grid Mix (U.S./Regional)

BEV100 Renewable Electricity

BEV100 Grid Mix (U.S./Regional)

Cellulosic Gasoline & Renewable Electricity

Cellulosic Gasoline & U.S./Regional Grid

Cellulosic E85 & Renewable Electricity

Gasoline & Renewable Electricity

Gasoline & U.S./Regional Grid

Cellulosic Gasoline & Renewable Electricity

Cellulosic Gasoline & U.S./Regional Grid

Cellulosic E85 & Renewable Electricity

Gasoline & Renewable Electricity

Gasoline & U.S./Regional Grid

Cellulosic Gasoline

Cellulosic E85

Gasoline

Cellulosic Gasoline

Cellulosic E85

Corn Ethanol (E85)

Natural Gas

Diesel

Gasoline

2012 Gasoline

Grams CO2e per mile

Low, Medium & High GHGs/mile for 2035 Technology, Except Where Indicated

Conventional Internal

Combustion Engine

Vehicles

Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Plug-in Hybrid Electric

Vehicles (10-mile [16-km]

Charge-Depleting Range)

Extended-Range Electric

Vehicles (40-mile [64-km]

Charge-Depleting Range)

Battery Electric Vehicles

(100-mile [160 km] and

300-mile [480-km])

Fuel Cell Electric

Vehicles

180100

30120

35160

165

190

10073

36

210200

17066

76170

4858

170150

4476

51

430220

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Low/high band: sensitivity to uncertainties associated with fuel pathway parameters

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WTW water consumption for various fuels

(DOE EERE June 23 2017, Record 17005)

https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/17005_water_consumption_ldv_fuels.pdf

https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/17005_water_consumption_ldv_fuels.pdf

C2G GHG emissions for current and future vehicle-fuel pathways –collaborative US DRIVE study

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Pyr

oly

sis

Pyr

oly

sis

FTD

w/

CC

S

HR

D

BD

20

Pyr

oly

sis

PyrolysisFerm

enta

tio

n

SMR

w/

CC

S

Gas

ific

atio

n

Gasoline ICEV

DieselICEV

GTL (FTD) ICEV

CNGICEV

LPGICEV

E85 FFV Gasoline HEV Gasoline

PHEV35 H2 FCEV BEV90

BEV 210

CURRENT TECH

Forest Residue

Soybean

Natural Gas

Corn Stover

Forest Residue + Solar/Wind ElectricityForest Residue + ACC Electricity

ACC Electricity w/ CCSPoplar

ACC Electricity

Vehicle Efficiency Gain

Forest Residue + ACC Electricity w/ CCS

Solar/Wind ElectricityNote: Vehicle efficiency gain contributes to

GHG reduction in all future pathways

Large GHG reductions for light-duty vehicles are challenging and require consideration of the entire lifecycle, including vehicle manufacture, fuel production, and vehicle operation.

https://greet.es.anl.gov/publication-c2g-2016-report

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021%2Fes302420z

https://greet.es.anl.gov/publication-c2g-2016-reporthttps://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021%2Fes302420z

GHG Emissions of Oil Sands – collaboration with Stanford and UC Davis Universities

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http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.est.5b01255

Surface

mining

bitumen

Upgraded

surface

mining

bitumen

In-situ

bitumen

Upgraded

in-situ

bitumen

Oil sand operations are 3 to 6

times more carbon intensive than

average US conventional crudes

http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.est.5b01255

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AWARE-US

AWARE =

Available Water Remaining

Life-cycle inventory

Regional water

consumption for

energy systems

Water LCIA

Regional

parameters

Water stress index

(AWARE-US)

Regional water

supply and demand

AWARE-US water stress impact analysis – collaboration with Duke University

Brings together water consumption

and ambient water availability.

Considers hydrologic flows and

societal water use at county level.

Applying to a wide range of energy

supply chains.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718332145?via%3Dihub

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718332145?via%3Dihub

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Please visit

http://greet.es.anl.gov

for:

• GREET models

• GREET documents

• LCA publications

• GREET-based tools and calculators

[email protected]