LCA and LCSA: how can they contribute to the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)? Jeroen Guinée | 3rd International Conference Series on Life Cycle Assessment (ICSoLCA) on “LCA as a metric to achieve SDGs”, The National Library of Republic Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia, 24-25 October 2018
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LCA and LCSA: how can they contribute to the global ... · SDGs Sustainability pillars, SDGs, targets & indicators Source: “Engaging with local communities for the SDGs”, by Subandi
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LCA and LCSA: how can they contribute to the global Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs)?
Jeroen Guinée | 3rd International Conference Series on Life Cycle Assessment (ICSoLCA) on “LCA as a metric to achieve SDGs”, The National Library of Republic Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia, 24-25 October 2018
Content•SDGs
•LCA in a nutshell◦ Philosophy behind LCA (life cycle thinking; LCT)
•LCA: the method◦ Challenges for developing countries
•LCSA: what is it?◦ Challenges for developing countries
• Each SDG has several targets; each target may have 1 or more indicators; indicators may still lack a method and/or data
• For example, Goals 11-15:
Tier 1 (mature indicator) : Indicator is conceptually clear, has an internationally established methodology and standards are available, and data are regularly produced […]. Tier 2 (no data): Indicator is conceptually clear, has an internationally established methodology and standards are available, but data are not regularly produced […]. Tier 3 (no method): No internationally established methodology or standards are yet available for the indicator, but methodology/standards are being (or will be) developed or tested.
Targets Indicators Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3Goal 11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable 10 15 7 8 5Goal 12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns 11 13 3 10 9Goal 13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts 5 8 2 6 5Goal 14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
10 10 3 7 5
Goal 15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss
Source: “Engaging with local communities for the SDGs”, by Subandi Ardjoko, Deputy Minister for Human and Society Development and Cultural Affairs, 10th Global RCE Conference, Jogyakarta, Indonesia, 22 November 2016. https://www.slideshare.net/HannaatUNU/engaging-with-local-communities-for-the-sdgs-subandi-sardjoko
SDGs
SDGs
Indicators for SCP (Goal 12)Target Indicator
12.1 Implement the 10-Year Framework of Programmes on SCP Patterns […] 12.1.1 Number of countries with (SCP) national action plans or SCP mainstreamed […]
12.2 By 2030, achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources
12.2.1 Material footprint, material footprint per capita, and material footprint per GDP
12.2.2 Domestic material consumption (DMC), DMC per capita, and DMC per GDP
12.3 By 2030, halve per capita global food waste at retail and consumer levels […] 12.3.1 Global food loss index
12.4 By 2020, achieve the environmentally sound management of chemicals and all wastes
throughout their life cycle […]
12.4.1 Number of parties […] that meet their commitments […] in transmitting information
[…]
12.4.2 Hazardous waste generated per capita and proportion of hazardous waste treated, by
type of treatment
12.5 By 2030, substantially reduce waste generation through prevention, reduction, recycling and
reuse
12.5.1 National recycling rate, tons of material recycled
12.6 Encourage companies, especially large and transnational companies, to adopt sustainable
practices and to integrate sustainability information into their reporting cycle
12.6.1 Number of companies publishing sustainability reports
12.7 Promote public procurement practices that are sustainable, in accordance with national
policies and priorities
12.7.1 Number of countries implementing sustainable public procurement policies and action
plans
12.8 By 2030, ensure that people everywhere have the relevant information […] 12.8.1 Extent to which (i) global citizenship education and (ii) education for sustainable
development (including climate change education) are mainstreamed in (a) national
Hydrogen chloride[air_high population density] 3.85E-07 1.68E-07 kg
Hydrogen fluoride[air_high population density] 2.03E-08 9.09E-09 kg
LCA : the method
From inventory analysis -> impact assessment
• Inventory analysis:◦ emission of CO2, SO2, NOx, Hg, ...
◦ extraction of iron-ore, crude oil, fish, ...
• Impact assessment:◦ Impact categories:
• midpoint: Global warming, Acidification, Eutrophication, Aquatic ecotoxicity, Abiotic depletion, etc.
• endpoint: damage to human health, damage to ecosystems, damage to resource availability, …
◦ Characterization results: one score for global warming, one for acidification, etc.
◦ Normalization: relating characterization results to reference information (e.g., world 2015) in order to better understand the relative significance of the characterization results
◦ Weighting: further aggregation of characterization/normalization results to single index: footprint, ...
LCA : the method
Calculation of characterization results•Global Warming:
◦ Global Warming Potential (GWP): measure for Global Warming in terms of radiative forcing for 1 kg emission
• Example:
◦ 5 kg CO2 (GWP = 1)
◦ +
◦ 3 kg CH4 (GWP = 28; IPCC 2007)
◦ =
◦ 1 x 5 + 28 x 3 kg CO2-equivalent (= 89 kg CO2–equivalent)
LCA : the method
Example of characterization resultsCML 2001 baseline methods
PEF recommended methods
Impact category Product 1 Product 2 Unit
CML 2001 baseline, eutrophication 9.59E-04 1.68E-04 kg PO4-Eq
CML 2001 baseline, depletion of abiotic resources 5.26E-03 6.17E-04 kg antimony-Eq
CML 2001 baseline, acidification 9.44E-04 5.21E-04 kg SO2-Eq
CML 2001 baseline, photochemical oxidation 4.02E-05 1.98E-05 kg ethylene-Eq
CML 2001 baseline, climate change 6.77E-01 9.23E-02 kg CO2-Eq
CML 2001 baseline, terrestrial ecotoxicity 5.14E-04 5.29E-04 kg 1,4-DCB-Eq
CML 2001 baseline, freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity 1.40E-01 3.89E-02 kg 1,4-DCB-Eq
CML 2001 baseline, stratospheric ozone depletion 2.62E-08 4.72E-09 kg CFC-11-Eq
CML 2001 baseline, human toxicity 1.71E-01 1.22E-01 kg 1,4-DCB-Eq
Impact category Product 1 Product 2 Unit
climate change//GWP 100a 6.77E-01 9.22E-02 kg CO2-Eq
ecosystem quality//freshwater and terrestrial acidification 1.22E-03 6.20E-04 mol H+-Eq
human health//carcinogenic effects 2.26E-08 6.52E-09 CTUh
human health//ionising radiation 1.06E-01 1.11E+00 mol N-Eq
human health//non-carcinogenic effects 7.68E-08 4.54E-08 CTUh
human health//ozone layer depletion 2.62E-08 4.72E-09 kg CFC-11-Eq
human health//photochemical ozone creation 9.69E-04 2.87E-04 kg ethylene-Eq
human health//respiratory effects, inorganics 1.72E-04 6.50E-05 kg PM2.5-Eq
resources//land use 3.18E-01 8.19E-02 kg Soil Organic Carbon
resources//mineral, fossils and renewables 8.16E-07 4.26E-06 kg Sb-Eq
LCA : the method
Interpretation
• Conclusions, recommendations, analyses, all related to goal and scope of the research◦ detailed analysis of results: where are the hot spots ?
• contribution analysis
◦ uncertainty analysis etc.
LCA : the method
General limitations and challenges of LCAs
•Resource intensive (both human and monetary resources)
•Data intensive
◦ garbage in= garbage out
◦ most public data are quite old, and focus has mainly been on method development so far
◦ developing countries heavily under-represented in current databases
• It’s an assessment method:
◦ drives on assumptions and choices
◦ can easily be tweaked to suit particular interest (“hired gun” effect)
◦ results cannot directly be validated!
• It’s not a “supertool”
LCA : the method
The general outcome of an LCA thus is … “it depends …”
Specific LCA challenges for Indonesia/SEA
•“LCA is still quite unknown◦ although that will have to change rapidly due increasing inclusion of LCA in governmental
regulations
◦ … and is already changing, e.g., by ILCAN’s efforts (!)
• Increasing capacity needed to support a fast growth of LCA
◦ Increase of LCA curricula needed
•Data, data, data, …… data
◦ built up expertise with data collection ……”
◦ since in ecoinvent 3.4 only 36 processes for Indonesia
How can LCA/LCSA contribute to SDGs
1 clear-cutting, grassland to arable land, perennial crop2 clear-cutting, primary forest to arable land, perennial crop3 clear-cutting, secondary forest to arable land, perennial crop4 cocoa bean production, sun-dried5 coconut production, dehusked6 coffee green bean production, robusta7 deep well drilling, for deep geothermal power8 electricity production, deep geothermal9 electricity production, hydro, reservoir, tropical region10 electricity production, lignite11 electricity production, natural gas, combined cycle power plant12 electricity production, natural gas, conventional power plant13 electricity production, oil14 electricity production, photovoltaic, 3kWp slanted-roof installation, multi-Si, panel, mounted15 electricity production, photovoltaic, 3kWp slanted-roof installation, single-Si, panel, mounted16 electricity production, wind, <1MW turbine, onshore17 electricity voltage transformation from high to medium voltage18 electricity voltage transformation from medium to low voltage19 electricity, from municipal waste incineration to generic market for electricity, medium voltage20 electricity, high voltage, import from MY21 electricity, high voltage, production mix22 hard coal mine operation and hard coal preparation23 heat and power co-generation, biogas, gas engine24 heat and power co-generation, biogas, gas engine25 heat and power co-generation, wood chips, 6667 kW26 heat and power co-generation, wood chips, 6667 kW27 land already in use, annual cropland to perennial crop28 land already in use, perennial cropland to perennial crop29 land use change, perennial crop30 market for electricity, high voltage31 market for electricity, low voltage32 market for electricity, medium voltage33 market for hard coal34 market for land tenure, arable land, measured as carbon net primary productivity, perennial crop35 market for land use change, perennial crop36 palm fruit bunch production
Life cycle sustainability assessment (LCSA)
LCSA : what is it?
Source: UNEP (2012) Social Life Cycle Assessment and Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment
◦ Despite many useful LCAs, little or no progress in global environmental sustainability has been made
• Need to broaden our analyses to baskets of products, total consumption, …
◦ Large-scale production of bio-energy may affect the food markets, social structures, nature, etc. through indirect land use, rebound effects, market mechanisms
• Need to deepen our analysis to include those mechanisms
LCSA : what is it?
Interpretation
Modelling
broade
ning th
e obje
ct of an
alysis
broadening the scope of indicators
Goal and scope definition
Social
Economy-wide
Meso-level
Product-oriented
Environmental Economic
EE-MRIO / general
equilibrium models / ......
IOA / partial equilibrium
models / ......
LCC SLCA
Life-Cycle Sustainability Analysis (LCSA)
Q
u
e
s
t
i
o
n
sEE-IOA / ...
process-LCA / EIO-LCA /
hybrid LCA
Environmentally Extended
Multi-Region IOA (EE-
MRIO)
How can LCA/LCSA contribute to the SDGs?
•Are there any LCA/LCSA indicators in the SDGs?
◦ There are not so many right now
• Possible reasons for the lack of life cycle-based indicators in SDGs? (Suh, 2018):
◦ Lack of operational standards
◦ Cost of implementation
◦ Lack of capacity to conduct LCA
◦ Lack and age of data
◦ Relatively small size of the community
How can LCA/LCSA contribute to SDGs
How can LCA/LCSA contribute to the SDGs?
• If we compare the SDG indicators with what LCA and LCSA can provide:
◦ Indicators are mostly focused on one (environmental) issue at a time
◦ While implementing SDGs, trade offs between SDGs are likely to occur
• Thus LCA/LCSA can be really helpful:
◦ LCA/LCSA can support mapping and checking of trade-offs between goals, targets or indicators, and may thus bring evidence-based integral analyses and metrics to achieving the SDGs
• Required for mapping potential trade-offs: whole life-cycle + all relevant impacts
• Required for proving ‘sustainability’, although ‘sustainability’ itself still needs to be defined
How can LCA/LCSA contribute to SDGs
LCA can map environmental trade-offs
•Aiming for sustainable transport systems (target 11.2), a comparison of different modes of vehicle transport may learn that FBEVs are potentially worse on toxic impacts (targets 3.9, 6.3, 12.4), eutrophication (14.1), and radiation
• Pursuing social goals is generally associated with higher environmental impacts
• Source: Scherer et al. Environmental Science and Policy 90 (2018) 65–72; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901118308876)
Environmental impacts of reducing inequality (SDG 10) Environmental impacts of meeting a minimum income of $1.25 a day (SDG 1)
How can LCA/LCSA contribute to SDGs
There’s no such thing as a free lunch• “End poverty” & “reduction of inequality” are a
must but will have an environmental impact
◦ trade-offs between SDGs (see example before)
• “Using coal to improve energy access (goal 7) in Asian nations, say, would accelerate climate change and acidify the oceans (undermining goals 13 and 14), as well as exacerbating other problems such as damage to health from air pollution (disrupting goal 3)”◦ Source: Nilsson et al. Nature 534, 320-322
• Environmentally sound technologies (target 17.7): new (often lab-/pilot-scale) technologies cannot simply be claimed as sustainable
◦ don’t claim, but proof (ex-ante LCA)
How can LCA/LCSA contribute to SDGs
Increasing attention for ex-ante LCA (SDG 17)Ex-post versus ex-ante LCA: what’s
the stronger side of LCA?
Perspectives SA
Conclusions
•LCA/LCSA too complex to support single SDGs
•Should support mapping and checking of trade-offs between SDGs, bringing evidence-based integral analyses and metrics to achieving the SDGs•Governments should adopt LCA/LCSA to design integrative policies reducing
humanity’s footprint and overcoming potential trade-offs among SDGs
•Universities should develop and teach LCA/LCSA curricula
•Achieving SDGs without LCA/LCSA seems to be very challenging