KSWC Space Weather Services & Future Planaoswa4.spaceweather.org/presentationfiles/20161024/S1-1.pdf · 2016. 10. 31. · Article 51(Establishment & Implementation of basic plan for

Gwan-sik, Wi(Director, Korean Space Weather Center)

KSWC Space Weather Services & Future Plan

24. Oct. 2016

Gwan-sik, Wi (Director, Korean Space Weather Center)

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13.6 million (Foreigner 2.6 million)

0.65 million (1.3% of whole Korea)

1,950 m (Baekdusan 2,744m)

Biosphere Reserve (2002)

World Natural Heritage (2007)

Global Geopark (2010)

“The New7Wonders (2011)”

“UNESCO Triple Crown, Jeju”

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Contents

1. Overview

2. Policy & Strategy

3. R & D

4. Summary

3

Overview

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KSWC Overview

KSWCKOREAN SPACE

WEATHER CENTER

MSIP MINISTRY OF SCIENCE,

ICT AND FUTURE PLANNING

RRANATIONAL RADIO

RESEARCH AGENCY

Since August 2011

The primary action agency of emergency measure to severe SWx,

and the RWC Korea of International Space Environment Service

2011 2012

2014 1980S~

Regional Warning Center Member of ICTSW

Delegate for Space Weather Leading Agency of ROK

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KOREAN SPACEWEATHER CENTER(KSWC)

Official source to deliver space weather products & services in Korea

Operation CenterForecast & Alert, R&D, Observation

Research on optical & radio astronomy, space science

Research on ionosphere, mesosphere in polar region

Space weather effect on (terrestrial) climate, weather, meteorological satellite

R.O.K Space Weather Capability

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Models & Services

ASSA, IPS-Enlil,

NAIRAS, IRI-VOACAP, GIC,

etc. (29ea.)

Customers

Satellite

Comm.

Comm.DefenseDefense

Power

Aviation

Products

3-hourly Condi. & Forecast

3-day Forecast(daily)

27-day Forecast(weekly)

HF Prediction(monthly)

Alerts & White Alerts

WWW

Observation

Spa

ceG

roun

d B

ased

Ionosondes (x2)

& TEC (x5)

Mag (x3)

SRS (30MHz~2.5GHz)

F10.7 Meter

IPS

RIMS (30MHz~18GHz)

ACE, DSCOVR,

STEREO Tracking

GIC Monitor (x3)

KSWC Space Weather Operation

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Policy & Strategy

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Addendum 3-2(Agency of risk Management)

…

(Space Weather Risk) The Ministry of Science, ICT and Future

Planning

…

DisasterACT

Framework ACT on the Management of

Disaster and Safety

Policy - Disaster Act of SW Risk

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Article 51(Establishment & Implementation of basic plan for

the management of Space Weather Risks)

The Minister of Science, ICT and Future Planning shall

establish and implement a basic plan for the management of

space weather risks including following in order to prepare,

control and recover against disasters due to variation of space

weather conditions in every 5 years.

Radio Wave ACT

1. Matters concerning observation and surveillance of variation of space

weather conditions;

2. Matters concerning forecasts and alerts of space weather risks;

3. Matters concerning R&D (Research and Development) and

international cooperation for the prevention of and preparing against

space weather risks.

4. Other matters necessary to provide against space weather risks.

Policy - Radio Wave Act of SW Risk

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11/23

Standard Manual

for

Space Weather Risk

2013.2.

All ministries followed predefined procedures based on KSWC’s SWx information !

Policy - SW Disaster Management (1)

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Radio Wave Act(Article 61)

Space Weather Center

ACT Alerts (Scale) Authority

Framework Act on the Management of Disasters and Safety

Over Scale 4 of SW Alert

ACT Alert(Scale) Authority

Space

Weather

Alerts

Space

Weather

Disaster

Alerts

Attention

Caution

Alert

Serious

Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning

Section Chief

Undersecretary

Vice-minister

Minister

Situation Assessment Meeting

Radio Wave Act(Article 51)

1 ~ 2

3

4 ~ 5

NOAASWx

Scales(R,S,G)

Send alert

messages

Notify to key

customers

Notify to related

Ministries

KSWC level

Ministry level

National level

Solar Activities Alerts

Policy - SW Disaster Management (2)

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Leading of R & D Enhanced Space Weather analysis and prediction models

Vitalized Administration

Establishment of inter-agency cooperation

Strengthen disaster response capacity

Enhanced Data systemCollaboration for raising data efficiencyDeveloping identity of observation facilitiesProper improvement of facilities

Reinforcement ofInt’l cooperation

International cooperation for R&D

Diversification of international relation

Systematic OperationEmpowerment for observation & forecast

Expanding customers & promotion

5 Strategies 10 Action Plans

KSWC – Strategy and Action Plan

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R & D

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15m ~ several hours

(Proton)

8m 20s

(X-ray)

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Solar Source Solar effects SW Alerts Major Industries

Aviation

Satellite

Navigation

Power gridCommunication

2 ~ 3 days

Radio Blackouts

(R)

Solar Radiation Storms

(S)

Geomagnetic Storms

(G)(Electron, Proton)

Sun Corona Interplanetary Space Geomagnetic Field

R & D - Solar Activity Overview

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Radio Blackouts Solar Radiation Storms Geomagnetic Storms

Forecast

Model

- ASSA (Automatic Solar Synoptic Analyzer)

- Solar Proton EventPrediction

- Enlil, IPS, IPS-driven Enlil

Function

Identify solar active regions, filament channels and coronal holes

Predict the intensity and

occurrence of the solar

radiation storm

Calculate geo-effectiveness of solar wind using IPS data & Coronagraph

Upgrade

Plan

(Future)

+ Tracing filaments using SDO 304

+ Analyzing the magnetic field configuration of sunspots

+ Predicting the peaktime and the end time of the solar proton event

+ CME analysis improvementusing data of STEREO and L5 satellite

+ Predicting IMF Bz+ Automatic CME analysis

R & D - SW Forecast Models

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Satellite Aviation Navigation Power Grid Comm.

Analysis

Model- DREAM - SAFE

- GNSS signal

monitoring analysis

- GICmeasurement

- Real time

HF Mapping

Function

Calculate highenergy particles on the radiation belts

Calculate

cosmic radiation

does during

aviation flight

MonitorGNSSsignal statusaccording to solar activity

Measure GIC induced bySpace Weather

disturbance

Predict usable HF based on ionosphericassimilation

Upgrade

Plan

(Future)

+predict electron density distributions for 3 days using deep-learning

+predict cosmic

radiation doses

on flight routes

+predict GIC

and K index

for 3 days in

Korea

+accuracy

improvement

using portable

observational

devices for

ionosphere

R & D - SW Effect Analysis Models

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http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/assa

R & D - ASSA

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R & D - ASSA Upgrade for Prediction

Flare prediction using both Mt. Wilson

and McIntosh classification

Tracing and estimating the path of

Filaments using SDO 304

Forecasting one month solar activities

based on ASSA sunspot number

ASSA Upgrade plan McIntosh clssification

Mt.Wilson classification

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* Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model

DREAM(LOS Alamos National LAB) +

New physical model(KSWC)

Input : GOES MAG.& Particle data,

Kp, DST, Solar wind data

Result : RT Elec. flux in Rad. Belt

Will upgrade to predict electron

density distributions for 3 days

DREAM Satellite Service

Radiation Dose for ROK Satellites

- COMS, ARIRANG 2,3,3A & KSAT 5&6

- Radiation Hazard Warning

Will analyze damage of satellite by

cosmic radiation does

R & D - for Satellites

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Will measure real-time space

radiation for commercial aircrafts

- Study on dose meter’s airworthiness

ARMAS-Lite Project * Automated Radiation Measurements for Aviation Safety

- KSWC, SET, NOAA/SWPC, NASA, NSF

- Fly with NOAA & NCAR airplanes

Space Radiation Measurement

R & D - for Aviation

* Safety Aviation Flight Environment

NAIRAS(NASA) + CARI-6M(FAA)

Input : Flight time, Airport, Airline

Result : Radiation dose of all flights

Will upgrade to predict cosmic

radiation doses on flight routes

www.spaceweather.go.kr/SAFE

SAFE

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Country Organization Date Main Subject

USUCSD Univ. ’15.06.17.

Introduction of solar wind prediction model Research on the interplanetary space

Done

NOAA ’15.2.9. Space weather forecasting

Japan

NICT ’14.5.8. Cooperation observation of ionosphere

Nagoya Univ. ’12.12.24.Research on the solar physicsExchange of observed data for solar activities analysis

China IGGCAS ’16.8.26.Cooperation observation of ionosphere in Northeast Asia

UK Met Office ’16.10.Participation in the construction of the receiving station which can store and analyze the data from L5 satellite in real time.

FutureUS

NASA ’16.11.Accuracy estimation on forecasting models of space environment

Los Alamos ’16.11.Research on the prediction of electron density distribution

Mexico UNAM Univ. ’16.11. IPS data exchange for solar wind observation

R&D - International Cooperation (MOU)

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Summary

KSWC will enhance SW R&D and disaster management

based on the RADIO strategies

Global Cooperation is more crucial in SW

Further discussion to aim closer partnership of Asia-

Oceania during AOSWA

Mutual exchange of R&D and Data will amplify the synergy

KSWC is planning to operate network using TEIN

through Asia-Oceania

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www.facebook.com/rwcjeju RRA Space Weather