Taye Shim +62-21-515-3281 [email protected]To subscribe to our Daily Focus, please contact us at [email protected]Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Price performance since 2012 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Embun Pagi July 21, 2017 BMRI 2Q17 review: Recovery confirmed Untuk 2Q17, Bank Mandiri (BMRI) membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp5.384.0 miliar (+32.0% QoQ; +65.0% YoY). Pertumbuhan pendapatan bunga bersih BMRI sebagian besar diredam (+0.4% QoQ) untuk kuartal tersebut. Namun, pendapatan non-bunga menunjukkan pertumbuhan yang kuat (+16.0% YoY). Kami didorong oleh biaya provision yang terkendali (-20% YoY) dan tanda-tanda perbaikan yang ditunjukkan oleh kualitas aset (NPL): -16bps QoQ). Pertumbuhan kredit: BMRI terus menunjukkan selera pada peminjam yang kurang berisiko, yang dibuktikan dengan percepatan penyaluran kredit untuk korporasi (+4% QoQ; +18% YoY), kredit mikro (+4% QoQ; +18% YoY), dan konsumen Peminjam (+5% QoQ; +20% YoY). Kami menilai total pertumbuhan kredit BMRI +10.7% YoY cukup moderat. Margin bunga bersih: Margin bank turun 11bps menjadi 5.58%. Mengingat penyaluran pinjaman manajemen terfokus pada peminjam yang kurang berisiko ke depan, kami memperkirakan tekanan marjin terus berlanjut. Manajemen memperkirakan marjin konsolidasi akan mencapai 5.7%-5.8% untuk setahun penuh (vs. 5.88% pada 1H17). Kualitas aset: Rasio NPL turun 16bps QoQ menjadi 3.82%, sedangkan rasio biaya kredit meningkat menjadi 274bps di 2Q17 (dari 314bps di 1Q17). Sebagai catatan singkat, NPL segmen korporasi sebesar IDR0.94tr telah berkurang sebesar 74.5% sejak puncaknya (IDR3.69tr di 3Q16). Rasio Precautionary loan meningkat 0.3%p QoQ menjadi 4.6%; Namun, kami tidak percaya bahwa kenaikan BMRI dalam rasio Precautionary loan menjadi mengkhawatirkan. Kami percaya bahwa bagian terburuk dari siklus kredit telah berakhir. Margin cenderung diperas; Namun, kita tidak percaya tekanan menjadi parah. Kami meningkatkan tingkat investasi kami ke Trading Buy. TP baru kami menyiratkan target P/B multiple sebesar 2.0x ke perkiraan 12M forward BPS kami. Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5,825.2 0.3 -0.2 11.3 MSCI Indonesia 27.1 0.1 0.7 5.7 MSCI EM 1,059.4 -0.1 5.3 21.7 HANG SENG 26,740.2 0.3 3.8 21.2 KOSPI 2,441.8 -0.1 3.6 21.4 FTSE 7,487.9 0.8 -0.2 10.9 DJIA 21,611.8 -0.1 1.1 16.9 NASDAQ 6,390.0 0.1 2.4 25.8 Valuation 2017F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) JCI 16.7 2.6 18.9 Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY BI 7-Day RR 4.75 0 0 -50* 3yr 6.73 -1 5 -10 10yr 6.94 1 11 -9 *since introduced in Aug 2016 FX Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY USD/IDR 13,333.00 0.1 0.2 1.6 USD/KRW 1,125.65 0.4 -1.6 -0.9 USD/JPY 111.91 -0.1 0.5 5.8 USD/CNY 6.76 0.1 -1.1 1.1 Commodities Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY WTI 46.9 -0.8 9.8 -6.4 Gold 1,244.5 0.3 -0.2 -6.5 Coal 86.7 3.5 7.4 42.4 Palm Oil 2,621.0 1.4 0.5 9.6 Rubber 132.1 0.0 -0.3 -4.4 Nickel 9,495.0 -1.6 5.4 -11.8 Copper 5,958.5 -0.1 3.8 19.7 Tin 20,075.0 -0.1 3.0 12.8 JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets 650 800 950 1,100 3,500 4,500 5,500 07/13 07/14 07/15 07/16 07/17 JCI MSCI EM (pt) (pt) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 50 100 150 200 250 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 NPL coverage ratio (L) NPL ratio (R) Precautionary loan ratio (R) (%) (%)
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July 21, 2017 · 2017-07-21 · Food Tbk (AISA) optimistis dapat memperoleh pendapatan sebesar Rp 7,6 triliun sampai akhir tahun 2017. Target ini tumbuh 16,9% dibandingkan pendapatan
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Relative Avg.Price Performance to JCI (%) : Persentase kenaikan harga saham dari rata-rata sejak IHSG memulai uptrend-nya β (beta) : Indikator sensitivitas harga saham terhadap IHSG, beta diatas 1 berarti harga makin sensitif terhadap pergerakan IHSG dan sebaliknya Correlation : Ukuran kuat hubungan (korelasi) pergerakan harga saham dibanding dengan pergerakan IHSG selama periode analisis. Period : Periode uptrend / downtrend yang valid dari pergerakan harga saham. r-squared : Koefisien determinasi, menunjukkan persentase gerakan yang dapat dijelaskan dengan regresi linier.Nilai R2 terletak antara 0 – 1, dan kecocokan model dikatakan lebih baik kalau R2 semakin mendekati 1 (validitas uptrend atau downtrend makin valid) Volatility (+/-%) : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak normal pada trend channel dalam persentase. Volatility (+/- point or Rp) : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak dalam periode analisis.
Buy: : Beli, harga sudah menyentuh atau jatuh di bawah support dan
indikator teknikal berada di oversold area.
Sell: : Jual, harga sudah menyentuh atau tembus resistance normal
dan indikator berada di overbought area.
BoW: : Buy on Weakness, beli ketika harga sudah melemah, dimana
Volume tekanan jual mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati
support, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di oversold area.
SoS: : Sell on Strength, jual ketika kenaikan harga sudah mulai terbatas
dimana volume beli mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati
Harga akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan
diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area) . Jika dilihat lebih lanjut kenaikkan
normal pada pergerakkan daily sekitar +1.37%, saat ini di level +0.1 %.Sementara itu
pada pergerakkan weekly normalnya sekitar +2.78 %, saat ini di +0.1 %.Dengan demikan
masih terlihat potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat. Pada Figure 19,20 dan 21 terlihat
perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Buy : Beli, harga sudah menyentuh atau jatuh di bawah support dan indikator teknikal berada di oversold area.
Sell : Jual, harga sudah menyentuh atau tembus resistance normal dan indikator berada di overbought area.
BoW : Buy on Weakness, beli ketika harga sudah melemah, dimana volume tekanan jual mulai berkurang dan harga mendekatisupport, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di oversold area.
SoS : Sell on Strength, jual ketika kenaikan harga sudah mulai terbatas dimana volume beli mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati resistance, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di overbought area.
Trading Buy : Beli dan jual kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level resistance terdekat, karena kenaikan harga relatif tidak stabil atau hanya sementara.
Trading Sell : Jual dan beli kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level support terdekat karena koreksi harga relative tidak stabil atau hanya sementara.
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
*Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates
July 21, 2017
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Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Sector performance
Top 10 market cap performance
Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%)
Agricultural 1,788.7 0.8 ADHI IJ 2180 7,763 11.51
Mining 1,476.9 0.5
VIVA IJ 340 5,598 4.29
Basic-Industry 622.5 -0.1 PTPP IJ 3080 19,096 4.05
Miscellaneous Industry 1,448.2 0.8 AISA IJ 1605 5,166 3.88
Consumer Goods 2,518.0 0.6 TELE IJ 1250 9,128 3.7
Property & Construction 484.9 0.5
TBLA IJ 1540 8,227 3.36
Infrastructure 1,187.8 0.3 ADRO IJ 1820 58,214 3.12
Finance 956.9 0.2 ULTJ IJ 5125 14,803 2.91
Trade 916.1 -0.2 MYOR IJ 2050 45,835 2.5
Composite 5,825.2 0.3 IIKP IJ 248 8,333 2.48 Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers
Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close
UNVR IJ 1.6 48,275 LPPF IJ -5.0 12,350
BMRI IJ 1.3 13,500 AMRT IJ -5.2 645
ASII IJ 0.9 8,550 CTRA IJ -4.6 1,135
TLKM IJ 0.7 4,630 BBNI IJ -0.7 6,950
ADRO IJ 3.1 1,820 IBST IJ -23.1 2,000 Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
5:45am NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m
-3.0%
10:00am NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 7.6%
10:40am AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
11:15am AUD RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks
3:30pm GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 4.3B 6.0B
7:30pm CAD CPI m/m -0.1% 0.1%
7:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.0% 1.5%
7:30pm CAD Common CPI y/y 1.3%
7:30pm CAD Median CPI y/y 1.5%
7:30pm CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.8%
7:30pm CAD Trimmed CPI y/y 1.2%
7:30pm CAD Core CPI m/m 0.1%
Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time
Source: Forex Factory
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