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GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF MILITARY COOPERATION AND PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS OF THE GENERAL STAFF OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE

Briefing on the Situation in the South-East of Ukraine

(19 – 25.05.2016) 1

VIOLATIONS OF MINSK AGREEMENTS VIOLATIONS OF MINSK AGREEMENTS BY THE RUSSIAN OCUPATION FORCESBY THE RUSSIAN OCUPATION FORCES

Ceasefire violations

Russian regular forces and illegal armed groups on the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, weapons and ammo supplies by the RF

OSCE SMM activities impediment

Withdrawal of heavy weapons violations

CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS BY THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES IN 2016BY THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES IN 2016

In total, In total, 5898 5898 ceasefire violations ceasefire violations recorded in 2016recorded in 2016

1205 1661 1549 1483

USE OF HEAVY WEAPONS BY THE RUSSIAN USE OF HEAVY WEAPONS BY THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES IN 2016OCCUPATION FORCES IN 2016

Since the beginning of Since the beginning of 2016 2016 1319 1319 violations of withdrawal of heavy violations of withdrawal of heavy weapons recordedweapons recorded

VIOLATIONS OF MINSK AGREEMENTS VIOLATIONS OF MINSK AGREEMENTS BY THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES IN BY THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES IN 20162016

OSCE SMM freedom of movement restrictionsOSCE SMM freedom of movement restrictions

Withdrawal of heavy weapons violationsWithdrawal of heavy weapons violations

11

22

3 4– February – March4 – January 4 – April

12

RUSSIAN FORCES IVO Ukraine’s state border

3 200

10

65

90

34

IAG RF AF

34 600 6 500

475 227

870 419

585 145

208 91

RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES ON THE OCCUPIED UKR RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES ON THE OCCUPIED UKR TERRITORIES AND IVO UKRAINIAN STATE BORDERTERRITORIES AND IVO UKRAINIAN STATE BORDER

POSSIBLE FUTURE SCENARIOSPOSSIBLE FUTURE SCENARIOS

THIRD SCENARIOTHIRD SCENARIO – – LARGE-SCALE OFFENSIVE OPERATIONSLARGE-SCALE OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS

FOURTH SCENARIOFOURTH SCENARIO – – FULL-SCALE OFFENSIVE OPERATIONSFULL-SCALE OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS

SECOND SCENARIOSECOND SCENARIO – – LAND CORRIDOR TO ANNEXED CRIMEALAND CORRIDOR TO ANNEXED CRIMEA

FIRST SCENARIO FIRST SCENARIO – – PUSHING OUT ATO FORCES BEYOND PUSHING OUT ATO FORCES BEYOND DONETSK AND LUHANSK REGIONSDONETSK AND LUHANSK REGIONS

ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE COMBAT CASUALTIES AND CIVILIAN CASUALTIES

~ 2000killed

5000 – 7000injured

up to 150killed

up to 500injured

~ 750 missing

298killed

80children

1.783 millionInternally displaced persons

1992 8251

IDENTIFIED COMMAND STAFF OF THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATIONIDENTIFIED COMMAND STAFF OF THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATIONFORCES IN EASTERN UKRAINEFORCES IN EASTERN UKRAINE

Commander 3rd dmibde 1 ACMajor GeneralІgor ТIMOFEIEV(nickname - Sokolov)

Commander 5th dmibde 1 AC Colonel Іgor KAPLIY (nickname - Kremen)

Commander 9 damireg 1 AC Colonel Dmytro BONDARIEV(nickname - Kovalenko)

Commander 2 ACMajor GeneralYevgenii NIKIFOROV(nickname - Morgun)

Commander 2nd dmibde 2 AC Colonel Andrei RUZINSKIY (nickname – Niefiodov)

Commander 4th dmibde 2 AC Colonel Piotr BOLGAREV

Commander 7th dmireg 2 AC Colonel Aleksander BUSHUIEV(nickname - Kolosov)

Commander 11 motreg 1 ACLt. Colonel Roman TITOV

Commander 2 ACMajor GeneralYevgenii NIKIFOROV(nickname - Morgun)

SITUATIONSITUATION IN “DLNR” AND CRIMEAIN “DLNR” AND CRIMEA

Маріуполь

Артемівськ

Донецьк

Луганськ

Станиця ЛуганськаЩастяТрьохізбенка

ГірськеПопасна

Світлодарськ

АвдіївкаПіски

Мар’їнка

Старогнатівка

Гранітне

Чермалик

1. Continued manipulation with the Minsk agreements compliance by the Russian Federation and “DLNR” – O. Zakharchenko statement about the local elections postponed for the end of 2016 – beginning of 2017 and the denial of the possibility of international police mission deployment.

2. Secret involvement of the Crimean criminal groups to the RF State Duma election process in exchange for loyalty of the Russian power structures - 18 - 19.05.2016 informal meeting in Crimea of the RF President Assistant Mr..Surkov with representatives of local criminals.

3. "DNR" authorities declaration of the possibilities to simplify the access of regional entrepreneurs to markets in Russia - 19.05.2016 Director of scientific production Center for Standardization, Metrology and Certification in DNR” Mr. I. Podinovski announced the start of “certificates of DNR production conformity” issueing process.

ATO AREA SITUATIONATO AREA SITUATION

Маріуполь

Артемівськ

Донецьк

Луганськ

Станиця ЛуганськаЩастяТрьохізбенка

ГірськеПопасна

Світлодарськ

АвдіївкаПіски

Мар’їнка

Старогнатівка

Гранітне

Чермалик

1. Continued augmentation of forces and means of intelligence and electronic warfare along the line of contact. Reconnaissance activity (UAV DRG), fire weapons (mortars and artillery), jamming (R-330 “Zhytel” and “Leyer-3”) and electronic interception of UAVs at the tactical depth of ATO defense forces formations.

2. The preparatory work for the UAV usage to defeat targets in tactical and operational-tactical depth of ATO defence forces; 1АC UAV company received 250 units of special explosive devices to execute certain tasks.

3. UAV and EW units (1АС, 2АС) training carried out by the RF AF specialists for the application of new attack and reconnaissance UAV, “Арбалет-МР” small interference complexes and multifunctional radio monitoring systems, РП-377ЛА “Лорандит” direction finding and suppression.

CONCLUSIONS RESULTING FROM THE SITUATIONCONCLUSIONS RESULTING FROM THE SITUATIONWITHIN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICTWITHIN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT

1. RF leadership continue imposing on international community own approaches regarding formation of the system of European security trying to renew its influence on former soviet countries and avoid further NATO extension to the East of the Europe.

2. RF leadership have activated international political-economical and public-outreach activities with the countries, which didn`t join international sanctions against Russia, in order to minimize the budget loss from the acting restrictions of the West.

3. RF leadership far and wide provides low intensity conflict support on the East of Ukraine with the aim of the usage of its negative consequences on political-economical situation in Ukraine and in the interest of the international legitimization of Crimean annexation.

4. Activation of local combat activities of 1АK and 2АK of “DNR/LNR” possibly will be directed at the attempts to capture separate important infrastructure objects of Donetsk and Luhansk regions (steam power plant and water-storage reservoir), that is impossible nowadays without involvement of the regular RF AF units.

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GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF MILITARY COOPERATION AND PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS OF THE GENERAL STAFF OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE

Thank You for Your attention!

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