Jamie Enderlen (LOT) Marcia Cronce (MKX) Dennis Vancleve (MKX)

 AN EXAMINATION OF DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES PROVIDED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DURING MAJOR WINTER STORMSJamie Enderlen (LOT)

Marcia Cronce (MKX)

Dennis Vancleve (MKX)

WHAT ARE DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES?

Everything that occurs between finishing the forecast and a customer utilizing the forecast, product, or headline

How does my forecast affect ____ ? Emergency managers Ship captains Snow plows Travelers

How can we relay this message clearly, concisely, and easily?

Do we need to provide extra information to any partners?

PURPOSE

Assess past DSS Establish how far DSS has come How else can we improve DSS

Focus is on major winter storms January 1-3, 1999 Blizzard Strong Winter Storm February 5-6, 2008 Groundhog Day Blizzard February 1-2, 2011

These results can be applied year round

JANUARY 1-3, 1999 BLIZZARD

STORM FACTS – JAN. 1999 BLIZZARD

Second worst blizzard of the 20th Century Second worst blizzard in Chicago

43 MPH peak wind gust 21.6” of snow fell at O’Hare International Airport

In Wisconsin 10-20” of snow in southern Wisconsin 30-35 MPH wind gusts

Widespread whiteout conditions Arctic air behind storm

Min temps of -9°F January 4th and -16°F January 5th

Min wind chills of -28°F January 4th and -31°F January 5th

SOCIETAL IMPACTS – JAN. 1999 BLIZZARD

Chicago Public Schools and Catholic schools closed for 2 days

Highways closed due to whiteouts Numerous accidents

Lake Shore Drive closed for first time due to high winds and potential for flooding

7000 without power in 3 southern WI counties State of Emergency declared in 44 IN counties

and all of IL 40-45% of domestic flights cancelled at ORD,

50% of all flights cancelled at MDW Chicago public transportation severely impacted

during and after the storm

NWS DSS – JAN. 1999 BLIZZARD

Well forecast storm Winter Storm Outlook highlighting potential for a

major winter storm issued 5 days before storm hit

Numerous Special Weather Statements issued before, during, and after storm Strongly worded to alert travelers

Briefed Chicago Dept. of Streets and Sanitation before and during the event via direct phone line

Did not directly interact with TRACON or ORD Tower

Relied on users to call in for extra information

WHY WAS THE IMPACT MINIMAL?

A well forecast storm with a long lead time Occurred over a holiday weekend 280 snowplows (8x more than 1967 blizzard)

Chicago used 125 additional private plows, etc. Airports rented extra equipment to clear runways

Some travelers heeded warnings Left town early Prepared for an extended stay

STRONG WINTER STORM FEBRUARY 5-6, 2008

STORM FACTS – FEB. 2008 WINTER STORM

15” to 20” across portions of southern Wisconsin

and northern Illinois Rates up to 2”-3”/ hour Winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph Visibilities ¼ mile or less Brief blizzard conditions Drifts of 2 to 4 feet Thunder snow reported First storm of this magnitude since Blizzard of 1999

SOCIETAL IMPACTS – FEB. 2008 WINTER STORM Roads became impassable, with some counties

pulling plow trucks More than 2,000 vehicles stranded for up to 12

hours on a 20 mile stretch of Interstate 39/90

Uphill section of interstate where traffic jam began

SOCIETAL IMPACTS – FEB. 2008 WINTER STORM State of Emergency for Dane and Rock counties National Guard mobilized to help stranded motorists Multiple accidents

One fatality Airport closures

Including Milwaukee Milwaukee bus service shut down for weather

for the first time since ‘99 blizzard and second time since 1990 23 buses stuck in snow drifts at time of closure

Many business closures, including rare mall closures

NWS MKX DSS – FEB. 2008 WINTER STORM

Great lead time: 111 hours in HWO…50.5 hours in watch…and 40 hours in warning

Two statewide EM conference calls Frequent forecast and product updates

Hourly WSW updates during heart of storm IEM chat utilized PC Live PNSs and top news story created with 24-hour

snowfall records prior to storm

LESSONS LEARNED

Need for improved situational awareness and communication Situational awareness displays

Frequent product updates with ongoing details can keep people abreast of quickly changing situations

Continue to expand the way that products and advisories/warnings are disseminated

Understand critical thresholds, and highlight when they might be met

GROUNDHOG DAY BLIZZARD FEBRUARY 1-2, 2011

STORM FACTS – FEB. 2011 BLIZZARD

Third worst snowstorm in Chicago Passing system Jan 31st, light lake effect snow

in between, then The Blizzard Feb 1-2nd (with lake-enhanced snow)

Thundersnow reported 3-Day Storm Total

Kenosha: 27.3” Chicago – O’Hare: 21.2” Milwaukee – Mitchell: 19.8” Madison Airport: 18.7” Moline/Quad-City Airport – 18.4” Rockford Airport: 15.1”

STORM FACTS – FEB. 2011 BLIZZARD Winds 30-40 mph with peak gusts of 45 to 60 mph

70 mph Chicago Lakefront 64 mph Kenosha Airport 61 mph Chicago-O’Hare Airport 60 mph Milwaukee-Mitchell Airport

White-out conditions Snow drifts 3 to 8 feet high,

up to 12 feet+

SOCIETAL IMPACTS – FEB. 2011 BLIZZARD

State of Emergency Schools dismissed early Tue, Feb 1 and remained

closed Wed, with a few still closed through Thu Including Chicago Public Schools (first time since 1999)

Government buildings closed to the public on Wed

Groundhog Day festivities cancelled National Guard mobilized Plows pulled off roads overnight – too dangerous Civil Danger Warning issued Lakeshore Drive closed (but not until 8 pm Tue

eve) Interstates Closed (portions)

SOCIETAL IMPACTS – FEB. 2011 BLIZZARD

Airports essentially closed Tuesday night, limited operations on Wednesday

Rail services severely impacted Injuries and fatalities due to exposure, heart-

attacks while shoveling, and vehicle accidents

Power Outages At least 200,000 customers lost power during the

storm

NWS DSS – FEB. 2011 BLIZZARD Well-forecast storm –

HWO mentioned on Fri, Jan 28th Watch issued Sun, Jan 30th Warnings issued Mon, Jan 31st and Feb 1st

Web Information Top News of the Day stories Multimedia Briefings “Getting Through the Blizzard” by NWS LOT Graphical Weather Stories, Nowcasts Social media

Webinars WI State-wide webinars

Weather Briefings Mitchell (MKE) Airport-initiated briefings GLERL for coastal flooding concerns WI DOT-initiated briefings

WI online E-Sponder instant message briefings

BRACING FOR THE STORM Because of our warnings and enhanced decision support services,

cities prepared for this blizzard "Every Chicago resident should brace for a storm that will be

remembered for a long time," Jose Santiago, executive director of OEMC, said. "We just have to see what Mother Nature throws at us."

Plows, schools and CTA are bracing for 18-24 inches of snow Chicago’s full fleet of 274 snow-fighting trucks was dispatched around

2:30 p.m. By 8 p.m., another 120 garbage trucks fitted with plows were expected to be added to combat the expected snow.

Four diesel engines on tracks to remove the snow, plows on front of every train, sleet devices on trains to spray the ice around the rail. “As long as I can keep the trains moving every 15 minutes, we should be able to keep up with the snow being built up on there," said Rich Rodriguez, CTA.

National Guard activated in both WI and IL Troops available to help stranded motorists on interstates Stationed at rest areas on highways with supplies (water and snack bars) Run emergency shelters at armories

RESULTS

HOW HAVE WE IMPROVED DSS? Focus on impacts of weather event not just end result

Snowfall rates Time of day storm will hit

Bulleted headlines Conveying level of confidence and alternate scenarios Increased communication and technology

Conference calls Multimedia briefings NWS Chat DSS webpages Top news stories Social media

Enhanced aviation services Anticipate instead of react

THE FUTURE OF DSS Remind ourselves that a long lead time means very

little if Key partners are not informed Information is not being passed along (storm reports,

updated headlines, top news stories, etc.) Public doesn’t take action

Impact based headlines not criteria driven headlines Use past events to remind users how bad the storm

may be Learn what our users needs are and keep those in

mind What information do they need How much lead time do they need Thresholds (amount of snow, snowfall rate, etc.) Best way to receive products (web, texts, TV, etc.)

THE FUTURE OF DSS

Work with partners (EMs) to make sure proper action is taken

Include ongoing societal impacts in headlines and/or storm reports

Update headlines as often as possible to reflect changing conditions

Find an effective way to communicate our forecast uncertainty Some partners do not understand certain

forecasts are not a slam dunk

QUESTIONS?